USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY Market Outlook

Salam aur Subh bakhair sab traders ko!

BOJ ka Policy Rate, Press Conference, aur Monetary Policy bhi USD/JPY ke sellers ke liye behtar aur madadgar rahe. Lekin, market buyers ke pressure mein hai. Isliye, yeh phir se bullish journey shuru kar sakta hai. Humein ek news strategy istemal karni chahiye aur market ko technical tor par bhi analyze karna chahiye, kyunki is tarah ka analysis traders ko data ko gehraai se samajhne ka mauqa deta hai, jisse woh market dynamics mein tabdeeli ki pehchan kar sakte hain. Woh log jo global nazariye rakhte hain, yeh dekhte hain ke US ke monetary stance mein tabdeeli kaise international economies, commodities, aur equities par asar daalti hai, jo mukhtalif investment strategies ke liye mauqe paida karti hai. Umeed hai ke USD/JPY ka market jaldi ya baad mein 142.75 ke resistance zone ko cross karega.

FOMC ke member Harker ki taqreer, jo higher interest rates ka signal degi, emerging markets ke liye challenges paida kar sakti hai jo foreign capital inflows par depend karti hain, kyunki capital tight monetary policy ke doran US mein higher-yielding assets ki taraf chala jata hai. Dusri taraf, agar dovish stance hoti hai to yeh emerging markets par pressure ko kam kar sakta hai aur global risk appetite ko barha sakta hai. Isliye, hum keh sakte hain ke Harker ki taqreer ko Fed ke balance sheet management aur quantitative tightening ke pace ke baare mein kisi bhi hint ke liye closely dekha jayega. Fed ka balance sheet reduction, jo ke un assets ko bechne se mutaliq hai jo unhon ne quantitative easing programs ke doran ikattha kiye the, bond yields aur interest rates par asar daal sakta hai. USD/JPY traders fixed-income markets mein kisi bhi update ke liye khaas tor par sensitive rahenge, kyunki Fed ke balance sheet policies mein tabdeeli bond prices aur yields mein shifts paida kar sakti hai.

Khush rahiye aur pur sukoon rahiye!

Is haftay ke tamaam aham bunyadi waqiyat ho chuke hain. Bazaar ne aik baar phir yeh sabit kiya hai ke bunyadi waqiyat ki fitrat zyada ahmiyat nahi rakhti. Har waqiya mein, dollar ke khilaaf kaam karne wale asbaab dhundh liye jaate hain aur baaqi sab kuch nazarandaz kar diya jata hai. Darhaqiqat, ab bazaar Fed ke rates aur BoE/European Central Bank ke rates mein farq ki roshni mein dollar bech sakta hai. Ab bazaar yeh tawaqo kar raha hai ke Fed apne rates ko British ya European central banks ke muqable mein zyada tezi se kam karega, jo ke ek naye selling ka silsila shuru kar sakta hai. Chunay ke ECB ka ijlaas bas pichlay haftay hua tha, ECB ki sarbaraah Christine Lagarde ka aaj ka khitaab bazaar ko koi naye ahmiyat ke maloomat nahi faraham karega General Nataij: Is haftay ke akhri trading din mein, dono currency pairs shayad bohat sukoon se trade karain. Majmoi tor par bazaar ka jazba yeh hai ke dono pairs aaj bhi barh sakte hain. Sath hi yeh bhi imkaan hai ke yeh correct karain. Is liye behtareen yeh hai ke technical levels, formations aur patterns ke bunyad par trade kiya jaye. Koi nahi jaanta ke bade players kab tak U.S. dollar ko bechte rahain gay aur kab tak Fed ke monetary easing ko price karte rahain gay. Jaisa ke hum ne pichle analysis mein 18 September ko peesh goyi ki thi, yen ne apni consolidation range ko barhaya aur neeche ke price channel se breakout kiya, jo ab mansookh ho chuka hai. Magar price ab bhi balance indicator line ke neeche hai, jo ke maujooda upward trend mein ek modrate correction ka ishara hai. Yeh correction MACD line tak gehra ho sakta hai jo ke 146.50 ke target level ke qareeb hai. Agar yeh level break ho jata hai, toh trend ko upward movement mein tabdeel kar diya jayega. Marlin oscillator ab bhi ek tang range mein hai (gray rectangle). Light green rectangle correct karne ki mumkin range ko zahir karta hai. Hum yeh tawaqo karte hain ke sideways trend jari rahega. Four-hour chart mein price balance aur MACD lines ke upar hai. Marlin positive area mein hai. 143.60 ke upar consolidate karna pehla koshish ho gi growth ki taraf 146.50 tak. MACD line (141.41) ke break hone se price ko 139.70-140.27 range test karne ka impetus milega

Japanese Yen (JPY) ka Halat:

Japanese Yen (JPY) ne aaj ke GDP growth figures par kuch khaas react nahi kiya, jo dusre quarter ke liye thode behtar the. Yeh subdued reaction kai factors ki wajah se hai, khaaskar Japan ke GDP time series ki volatility. Kisi bhi ek data point ko samajhne mein ehtiyaat baratna zaroori hai, khaaskar jab pehle quarter ke figures ko downward revise kiya gaya ho, jo aakhri positive surprise ka impact kam karta hai.

JPY Trading mein Support Levels ki Ahmiyat:

Filhal JPY ka support level khaas ahmiyat rakhta hai, jo price movement ka pivotal point hai. Is level se rebound hona long-term uptrend ki waapsi ka signal de sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar yeh support level toota, toh ongoing uptrend bias par shak ho sakta hai. Traders ko yeh dekhna hoga ke uptrend waapas establish ho raha hai ya nahi, iske liye humein is level par ek bullish reversal pattern dekhna hoga. Potential formations mein Japanese Hammer ya Two-Bar reversal shamil hain, jo momentum mein potential shift ki taraf ishara karte hain.

In technical aspects ko samajhna informed trading decisions lene ke liye zaroori hai. Support aur resistance levels ka interplay market sentiment aur potential price movements ke bare mein valuable insights de sakta hai. Traders ko vigilant rehna chahiye aur reversal patterns ke signs dekhne chahiye, kyunki yeh prevailing trend mein shift ka ishara de sakte hain.

JP Morgan Asset Management se Insights:

Bloomberg ki ek recent report ke mutabiq, JP Morgan Asset Management (JPAM) ko nahi lagta ke Bank of Japan (BoJ) foran interest rates barhane ka plan bana raha hai. Firm ka kehna hai ke BoJ tab tak aur hikes parh sakta hai jab tak Federal Reserve rates nahi ghatata aur U.S. economy stabilizes nahi hoti. Woh predict karte hain ke BoJ ke taraf se kisi bhi additional tightening measures ka hona zyada sambhavna 2025 mein hai, jab global economic environment stable ho.

H1 Chart ka Analysis: USD ki Recent Surge aur Market Dynamics:

Kal, hamari umeed thi ke USD ek range mein trade karega, lekin yeh New York trading ke doran surge hua aur 143.00 par kaafi upar band hua—1.33% ka izafa. Is tezi ke baad, market conditions ab overbought hain. Jab tak 140.20 support level nahi toota, minor support 140.00 par hai, jo suggest karta hai ke USD 149.50 se upar chadh sakta hai phir plateau tak pahunchega. Yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke agla resistance 144.00 par hai, jo foran challenge nahi kiya jayega.

Recent Price Action ka Halat:

Aakhri price action ne range-bound pattern dikhaya hai, jo traders ke darmiyan notable indecision ko darshata hai. Yeh uncertainty yeh darshati hai ke spot prices ke 140.40 region ke aas-paas bottom hone ki tasdeeq karne se pehle substantial follow-through buying ka intezar karna zaroori hai. Yeh level January ke shuruat se ab tak ka sabse niche point hai, isliye yeh monitor karne ke liye ek critical area hai.

**Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen**
Aaj ke din ke dusre hisson mein mere zikar ki gayi keematon ka koi test nahi hua. Volatility ki kami dekhne ko mili, jo data ki kami ki wajah se thi, jisne U.S. dollar ke upar uthane ki potential ko bhi kam kar diya. Aaj ki Asian session mein dollar par bechne ka bohot zyada pressure raha. Japan ke monetary base ke badlav ka report economists ke andazay se milta julta tha, lekin 10 saal ke bonds ki bechne mein demand ummeed se kam rahi. Badi trading companies ke market mein wapas aate hi dollar par pressure barh gaya. USD/JPY mein chal raha upar ki taraf ka correction jaldi khatam ho sakta hai, is liye bechne ki mauqay dhoondhna behtar hoga jo ke recent months mein dekhe gaye neeche ke trend ke saath mel khate hain. Intraday strategy ke liye, main scenarios No. 1 aur 2 par zyada tawajjo dunga.

**Buy Signal**

**Scenario No. 1:** Aaj main USD/JPY kharidne ka plan bana raha hoon jab yeh 146.44 par pohanchta hai, jo ke chart par hare rang ki line se dikhaya gaya hai. Iska maqsad 147.21 tak uthna hai, jo ke chart par mote hare rang ki line se hai. 147.21 ke ilaqe mein, main long positions se nikalne aur short positions kholne ka irada rakhta hoon, umeed hai ke wahan se 30-35 pips ki harkaat milegi. Humein aaj pair ke uthne ki umeed hai, lekin humein 146.00 ke ilaqe mein buyers ki activity ki zarurat hai. Ahmiyat: Kharidne se pehle, yeh ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke upar ho aur wahan se uth raha ho.

**Scenario No. 2:** Aaj main USD/JPY kharidne ka plan bana raha hoon agar 145.99 ke do musalsal tests hotay hain jab MACD indicator oversold area mein ho. Yeh pair ke neeche ke potential ko limit karega aur market ka wapas uthna ka sabab banega. Humein 146.44 aur 147.21 tak ki growth ki umeed hai.

**Sell Signal**

**Scenario No. 1:** Aaj main USD/JPY bechne ka plan sirf 145.99 ke level ka test karne ke baad banata hoon, jo ke chart par laal line se dikhaya gaya hai, isse pair mein tezi se girawat aayegi. Bechne walon ka key target 145.41 hoga, jahan main short positions se nikal kar foran long positions kholne ka irada rakhta hoon, umeed hai wahan se 20-25 pips ki harkaat milegi. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, kyunki dollar ka bearish market abhi tak khatam nahi hua. Ahmiyat: Bechne se pehle, yeh ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke neeche ho aur wahan se gir raha ho.

**Scenario No. 2:** Aaj main USD/JPY bechne ka plan bana raha hoon agar 146.44 ke do musalsal tests hote hain jab MACD indicator overbought area mein ho. Yeh pair ke upar ki potential ko limit karega aur market ka wapas girna ka sabab banega. Humein 145.99 aur 145.41 tak ki girawat ki umeed hai.Click image for larger version

USD/JPY USD/JPY Market Overview
USD/JPY (US Dollar aur Japanese Yen ka currency pair) forex market ka ek bohat important aur widely traded pair hai. Is pair ki trading liquidity bohat zyada hoti hai, aur yeh pair global economic aur financial markets ka ek acha indicator bhi hota hai. USD/JPY ka movement ziada tar interest rate differentials, central bank policies, aur risk sentiment par depend karta hai.

Fundamental Factors ka Role

USD/JPY ko samajhne ke liye fundamental factors ka ghor se dekhna zaroori hai. US Federal Reserve (Fed) aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki monetary policies iska direct asar daalti hain. Fed agar interest rates ko barhata hai, to USD ki demand barh jati hai, aur USD/JPY pair me bullish movement dekhne ko milti hai. Is ke baraks, Bank of Japan apni policy loose rakhta hai aur interest rates ko negative ya near-zero rakhta hai, jo Yen ki weakness ka sabab banta hai.

Global risk sentiment bhi ek bara factor hota hai. Jab markets me risk-off sentiment hota hai, yani investors ko dar hota hai ke market me girawat ho sakti hai, to Yen ek safe-haven currency ki tarah kaam karta hai aur USD/JPY me downward movement hoti hai, kyun ke log Yen ko zyada stable samajhte hain.

Technical Analysis aur Price Action

USD/JPY ka technical analysis karte waqt kuch major tools jaise Moving Averages, Fibonacci Retracement, aur RSI (Relative Strength Index) ka istimaal hota hai. Agar price apne key resistance level ko break karta hai, to bullish signal hota hai, lekin agar support level toot jata hai, to bearish signal samjha jata hai. Aksar traders 50-day aur 200-day moving averages ko follow karte hain taake long-term trend identify kiya ja sake.

Recent data ke mutabiq, agar USD/JPY apni 200-day moving average ke upar trade kar raha hota hai, to yeh ek strong bullish trend ka izhar karta hai. Price action patterns jaise ke head and shoulders, triangles, aur channels bhi traders ke liye useful hote hain.

Risk Sentiment aur Geo-political Asarat

USD/JPY pair ko global political aur economic events bhi kaafi had tak effect karte hain. Agar geo-political tensions barhti hain, to Yen ki demand barh jati hai aur USD/JPY me girawat dekhne ko milti hai. Is ke ilawa, Japan ki export-oriented economy bhi Yen ki value ko influence karti hai.

Conclusion

USD/JPY ka movement interest rate differentials, central bank policies, aur global risk sentiment se directly effect hota hai. Yeh pair technical aur fundamental analysis ke zariye samajhna asan ho jata hai, lekin safe-haven dynamics aur economic indicators ko regularly monitor karna bhi zaroori hai.

/JPY pair ko mazbooti di hai. Yeh kamzori is speculation ko barhawa de rahi hai ke Bank of Japan mumkin hai ke umeed se pehle interest rates barha de, jo yen ko mazeed kamzor kar sakta hai. Dusri taraf, US dollar abhi flat hai economic data ki kami ki wajah se. Magar, rising US fiscal yields kuch support provide kar rahe hain. Federal Reserve inflation aur 2024 mein lower tax rates ke imkanat ke hawale se ehtiyat barat raha hai, jo long run mein dollar par downward pressure daal sakte hain. kuch trading activity ko lead karta hai, lekin yeh rapid descent ke beech mein likely tha. Decline 144.99 ke round figure tak extend ho sakta hai, kuch margin ko further movement ke liye chor kar, lekin iske beyond, direction uncertain hai. Yeh analysis daily chart se related hai. Pair ki weekly chart par, maine four weeks ke liye downward trend observe kiya hai. Main aim kar raha hoon pair ki movement ko upcoming week ke liye forecast karne, whether selling trend persist karega ya alternative scenario likely hai. Is purpose ke liye, technical analysis ko examine karte hain pair ke week ke liye aur corresponding recommendations. Moving averages sell suggest karte hain, technical indicators active sell suggest karte hain, aur overall output active sell hai. Yeh technical analysis continued downward movement ko coming week mein advocate karta hai.
Ab, significant news ko consider karte hain jo pair ko affect karta hai. Notable news US se likely hai, optimistic forecast ke saath. Initial US unemployment benefit claims ke data Thursday ko likely hai,
USD/JPY sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon sirf tab jab 146.76 ka test hota hai jo ke chart par red line se dikhaya gaya hai, jo ke pair ke rapid decline ko lead karega. Sellers ke liye key target hoga 145.81, jahan mein short positions exit karunga aur foran long positions opposite direction mein open karunga, expecting 20-25 pips ki movement opposite direction mein is level se. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khas tor par agar correction pehle aadha din mein unsuccessful hoti hai aur daily high ka test nahi hota. Important: Sell karne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke niche ho aur usse decline karna

Kam interest rate ka matlab hota hai ke qarz lena sasta hota hai aur economic activity ko tehqiqat milti hai. Magar is dafa, dollar phir bhi mazboot nazar aa raha hai, kyun ke doosri currencies, jaise yen, ke muqablay mein wo zyada stable hai. Doosri taraf, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ka approach mukhtalif hai. BoJ apni policy ko jari rakhne ka irada rakhta hai, matlab ke woh jaldi interest rates mein koi tabdeeli nahi karenge. BoJ ne kaafi arse se low-interest-rate policy apna rakhi hai taake economic growth ko barhaya ja sake. Is policy ne yen ko kamzor rakha hai, osallar mazboot currencies jaise US dollar ke muqablay mein. Yeh contrast in policies, jahan US rates kam kar raha hai aur Japan unhein kaafi neeche rakh raha hai, yen ko mazid kamzor kar raha hai. Is yen ki kamzori ke sabab USD/JPY pair mein izafa hua hai, jo investors ko ek moka de raha hai ke wo upward movement se faida utha sakein. Ab bohot se traders yeh dekh rahe hain ke BoJ ka faisla market pe kaise asar andaz hoga, lekin ab tak yen kamzor hi nazar aa raha hai.

USD/JPY pair filhal 143.55 ke aas paas trade kar rahi hai, aur yeh ek notable rise dikhati hai. Pair ko 143.68 ka ek key resistance level face karna par raha hai. Yeh resistance ek barrier ki tarah hai jo price ko mazeed barhne se rok raha hai. Hali trend ko dekhte hue, yeh lagta hai ke bulls (wo traders jo price ke barhne ki umeed rakhte hain) is level ke ooper push karne mein kaamyab ho sakte hain. Agar yeh hota hai, toh mazeed izafay ka rasta khul sakta hai.

Do ahem moving average indicators bhi yeh ishara de rahe hain ke market bullish phase mein hai. Moving averages wo tools hain jo traders ko price ka rujhan samajhne mein madad karte hain. Jab price in moving averages ke ooper rehti hai, toh aam tor par iska matlab hota hai ke market bullish hai, ya barh raha hai. Is waqt, dono short-term aur long-term moving averages yeh dikhate hain ke upward trend jaari reh sakta hai. Yeh traders ke liye ek positive sign hai jo USD/JPY pair mein mazeed izafa dekhna chahte hain

Hal hi mein, Japanese Yen ne US Dollar ke muqable mein kamzori dikhayi, jo Monday ko zyada wazeh thi. Is shift ka bohot zyada taaluq market expectations se hai jo aane wali Federal Reserve ki Wednesday meeting se related hain. Traders in developments ko closely monitor kar rahe hain kyun ke yeh pair ki direction ko mutasir kar sakti hain.Fundamentally, Yen ka outlook strong hai. Haal hi ke data ne currency ke liye barhawa dekhaya hai, specialar Japan ki Consumer Price Index (CPI) ke 3.0% YoY tak barhne par jo August mein record hui, aur yeh October 2023 ke baad ka sab se zyada level hai. Yeh inflationary pressure Bank of Japan (BoJ) ko apni monetary policy stance par ghoor karne par majboor kar sakta hai, halan ke market anticipate karti hai ke filhal interest rates mein koi tabdeeli nahi hogi. Yeh ek aisa environment paida karta hai jahan Yen ka mazaid taqat pakar sakta hai agar economic conditions behtar hoti hain.Dusri taraf, US Dollar mushkilat ka samna kar raha hai. Federal Reserve ke additional rate cuts ke imkaanaat jo 2024 ke liye hain, Dollar ke hawalay se bearish sentiment ka sabab ban rahe hain. Market participants apni expectations ko adjust kar rahe hain, aur aaj ke baad mein release hone wale US economic data ka asar situation ko aur complex bana sakta hai. Currency markets mein significant volatility ka intezar hai, special Federal Reserve ka faisla qareeb aane ke saath.Technical perspective se dekha jaye to USD/JPY pair correction phase mein daakhil hone ki koshish kar raha hai, guzishta haftay ke akhri dino mein decline ke baad. Filhal kuch short-term upward movement ka imkaan hai, lekin overall trend downward trajectory ki taraf wapas aane ka ishara karta hai. Key levels jo dekhne wale hain, wo reversal point 141.35 hai. Agar price is level se neeche break karta hai, to selling opportunities samne aa sakti hain, jahan targets 139.85 aur 139.35 set kiye ja sakte hain. Dosri taraf, agar pair 141.35 ke upar break aur hold kar jata hai, to ek bullish scenario shayad unfold ho sake, aur price higher resistance levels ko test karne ka imkaan hai, jo 141.65 aur 141.85 par hain. Is surat mein, traders upward move ke baad sell positions mein wapas aa sakte hain, anticipate karte hue ke broader downward trend continue karega. Mujmuan taur par, USD/JPY pair ek crossroads par hai, jahan fundamental aur technical dono factors is ki movement ko mutasir kar rahe hain. Market abhi Federal Reserve ki policy decisions ke implications ka andaza lagane ke liye weigh kar raha hai, sath hi Japan ki economic performance par bhi nazar rakhe hue

Yeh kamzori is speculation ko barhawa de rahi hai ke Bank of Japan mumkin hai ke umeed se pehle interest rates barha de, jo yen ko mazeed kamzor kar sakta hai. Dusri taraf, US dollar abhi flat hai economic data ki kami ki wajah se. Magar, rising US fiscal yields kuch support provide kar rahe hain. Federal Reserve Inflation aur 2024 mein lower tax rates ke imkanat ke hawale se sukke barat raha hai, jo long run mein dollar par downward pressure daal sakte hain. Kuch trading activity ko lead karta hai, lekin yeh rapid descent ke beech mein likely tha. Decline 144.99 ke round figure tak extend ho sakta hai, kuch margin ko further movement ke liye chor kar, lekin iske beyond, direction uncertain hai. Yeh analysis daily chart se related hai. Pair ki weekly chart par, maine four weeks ke liye downward trend observe kiya hai. Main aim kar raha hoon pair ki movement ko upcoming week ke liye forecast karne, whether selling trend persist karega ya alternative scenario likely hai. Is purpose ke liye, technical analysis ko examine karte hain pair ke week ke liye aur corresponding recommendations. Moving averages sell suggest karte hain, technical indicators active sell suggest karte hain, aur overall output active sell hai. Yeh technical analysis continued downward movement ko coming week mein advocate karta hai.
Ab, significant news ko consider karte hain jo pair ko affect karta hai. Notable news US se likely hai, optimistic forecast ke saath. Initial US unemployment benefit claims ke data Thursday ko likely hai,
USD/JPY sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon sirf tab jab 146.76 ka test hota hai jo ke chart par red line se dikhaya gaya hai, jo ke pair ke rapid decline ko lead karega . Sellers ke liye key target hoga 145.81, jahan mein short positions exit karunga aur foran long positions opposite direction mein open karunga, expecting 20-25 pips ki movement opposite direction mein is level se. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khas tor par agar correction pehle aadha din mein unsuccessful hoti hai aur daily high ka test nahi hota. Important: Sell karne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke niche ho aur usse decline karna shuru ho
USD/JPY pair abhi tak bearish trend mein hai. 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) 21-day EMA ke neeche hai, aur 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 level se neeche hai, jo ke downtrend ko confirm karta hai. Yeh pair qareebi support 141.69 ke paas (jo ke saat mahinay ka low hai) dhoond sakta hai, aur agla support 140.25 par ho sakta hai. Agar upar ki taraf dekha jaye, toh pair ko resistance 9-day EMA ke paas 145.63 par face karna padega, aur phir 21-day EMA par 146.73 par. Agar yeh levels break hotay hain, toh psychological barrier 150.00 tak rasta khul sakta hai, aur agla resistance 154.50 par ho ga. Kal ke 147.0

USD/JPY pair aaj subah ki session mein aik tang trading range ka samna kar raha hai, jo pichle din ke closing levels ke nazdeek hai. Haal hi mein, Japanese Yen ne US Dollar ke muqable mein kamzori dikhayi hai, jo khas tor par Monday ko zahir hui. Yeh tabdeeli zyada tar Federal Reserve ke aane wale meeting ki umeedon se judi hai jo Wednesday ko hone wali hai. Traders in developments ko qareeb se dekh rahe hain, kyunki yeh pair ki direction par asar daal sakti hain. Bunyadi tor par, Yen ka outlook mazboot hai. Haal ki data ne currency ke liye unchi demand dikhayi hai, utasalar jab Japan ka Consumer Price Index (CPI) August mein 3.0% YoY tak barh gaya, jo October 2023 ke baad ka sab se uncha darja hai. Yeh inflationary pressure Bank of Japan (BoJ) ko apni monetary policy stance par dobaara ghoor karne par majboor kar sakta hai, halankeh market umeed karti hai ke interest rates qareeb ke waqt mein unchanged rahenge. Is se aisi halat ban sakti hai jahan Yen ki keemat barh sakti hai agar maashi halaat behtar hoti rahen.
Dusri taraf, US Dollar ko challenges ka samna hai. Federal Reserve ke 2024 mein mazeed rate cuts ke imkaan badh rahe hain, jo Dollar ke liye bearish sentiment ka sabab ban rahe hain. Jab market participants apni umeedon ko adjust karte hain, aaj ke dauran release hone wale US economic data ka asar situation ko aur complicate kar sakta hai. Currency markets mein significant volatility ka dekha jana umeed hai, utsalar jab Fed ka faisla nazdeek hai.

Technical perspective se, USD/JPY pair filhal correction phase mein ghusne ki koshish kar raha hai, jabke pichle haftay ke trading ke akhir mein isne girawat dekhi. Jabke kuch short-term mein upward movement ki sambhavna hai, lekin overall trend yeh darshata hai ke neeche ki taraf ka rukh jald wapas aa sakta hai. Watch karne ke liye key levels mein reversal point 141.35 shamil hai. If price is level ke neeche girta hai, to sell opportunities ban sakti hai

Japani yen ne guzishta trading haftay ke dauran apni taqat mein izafa kiya aur apne pehlay highs ko thora update karne mein kamyab raha. Jab price 147.45 ki rukawat tak pohnchi, toh achanak se girawat shuru hui aur aik waqt mein 141.88 tak chali gayi aur wahan support mil gaya. Magar yeh target area tak pohnch nahi saki. Is tarah, girawat ka muntazir scenario hissa tor par pura hua hai. Filhaal, price chart super trend red zone mein hai, jo sellers ki taraf se pressure ko zahir karta hai. Agar aaj ke 240-minute chart ko dekha jaye, toh hum dekhte hain ke 145.30 ka support level toot gaya hai aur simple moving averages ka negative break dikhayi deta hai, jo girawat ke dobara shuru hone ka ishara hai aur girawat ke imkaan ko support karta Hi. Is liye, downtrend ke barqarar rehne ke imkaan zyada hain jab tak ke price pehlay tootay hue support level ke neeche (jo ab resistance level ban gaya hai 145.20 par) kaam karti rahegi, jiska awwal target 142.75 hai. Dusri taraf, agar kam az kam aik hourly close 145.30 ke upar hota hai, toh pair dobara bullish rasta ikhtiyar karegi, aur 146.50 aur 147.50 ka imkaan hoga. Neeche chart dekhein Price ka 145.91 ka test us waqt hua jab MACD indicator zero mark se neeche ki taraf harakat kar raha tha, jo ke scenario No. 1 ke mutabiq selling ka sabab bana. Nateeja tor par, pair mein 50 pips se zyada ki girawat hui. Jaise ke expect kiya gaya tha, Federal Reserve ke minutes ke jaari hone ke baad dollar par pressure barh gaya, jis ne pair ko weekly low tak le aya. Aaj ke Asian trading session mein, manufacturing activity ke kamzor numbers ke bawajood yen thora sa kamzor hua, jab ke Japan ke services sector mein izafi growth dekhi gayi. Yeh bhi composite PMI mein thora izafa ka sabab bana. US dollar ki zahiri kamzori USD/JPY ko neeche le jaari hai, lekin kal Jerome Powell ke speech par bohat kuch mabni hai, is liye current levels par short positions ke hawale se ehtiyaat zaroori hai
Jahan tak intraday strategy ka taluq hai, main buy signals ka intezar kar raha hoon, Scenario No. 1 ke mutabiq. Aaj, main plan kar raha hoon ke USD/JPY ko khareedoon jab yeh entry point 145.56 ke ird gird pohanche, jo ke chart par green line se mark ki gayi hai, aur mera target 146.13 hai, jo ke chart par moti green line se mark kiya gaya

USD/JPY pair Asian session ke dauran ek tight trading range mein chal raha hai, aur guzishta din ke closing levels ke qareeb hai. Hal hi mein, Japanese Yen ne US Dollar ke muqable mein kamzori dikhayi, jo Monday ko zyada wazeh thi. Is shift ka bohot zyada taaluq market expectations se hai jo aane wali Federal Reserve ki Wednesday meeting se related hain. Traders in developments ko closely monitor kar rahe hain kyun ke yeh pair ki direction ko mutasir kar sakti hain.Fundamentally, Yen ka outlook strong hai. Haal hi ke data ne currency ke liye barhawa dekhaya hai, khaaskar Japan ki Consumer Price Index (CPI) ke 3.0% YoY tak barhne par jo August mein record hui, aur yeh October 2023 ke baad ka sab se zyada level hai. Yeh inflationary pressure Bank of Japan (BoJ) ko apni monetary policy stance par ghoor karne par majboor kar sakta hai, halan ke market anticipate karti hai ke filhal interest rates mein koi tabdeeli nahi hogi. Yeh ek aisa environment paida karta hai jahan Yen ka mazaid taqat pakar sakta hai agar economic conditions behtar hoti hain.Dusri taraf, US Dollar mushkilat ka samna kar raha hai. Federal Reserve ke additional rate cuts ke imkaanaat jo 2024 ke liye hain, Dollar ke hawalay se bearish sentiment ka sabab ban rahe hain. Market participants apni expectations ko adjust kar rahe hain, aur aaj ke baad mein release hone wale US economic data ka asar situation ko aur complex bana sakta hai. Currency markets mein significant volatility ka intezar hai, khaaskar Federal Reserve ka faisla qareeb aane ke saath.Technical perspective se dekha jaye to USD/JPY pair correction phase mein daakhil hone ki koshish kar raha hai, guzishta haftay ke akhri dino mein decline ke baad. Filhal kuch short-term upward movement ka imkaan hai, lekin overall trend downward trajectory ki taraf wapas aane ka ishara karta hai. Key levels jo dekhne wale hain, wo reversal point 141.35 hai. Agar price is level se neeche break karta hai, to selling opportunities samne aa sakti hain, jahan targets 139.85 aur 139.35 set kiye ja sakte hain.Dosri taraf, agar pair 141.35 ke upar break aur hold kar jata hai, to ek bullish scenario shayad unfold ho sake, aur price higher resistance levels ko test karne ka imkaan hai, jo 141.65 aur 141.85 par hain. Is surat mein, traders upward move ke baad sell positions mein wapas aa sakte hain, anticipate karte hue ke broader downward trend continue karega.Mujmuan taur par, USD/JPY pair ek crossroads par hai, jahan fundamental aur technical dono factors is ki movement ko mutasir kar rahe hain. Market abhi Federal Reserve ki policy decisions ke implications ka andaza lagane ke liye weigh kar raha hai, sath hi Japan ki economic performance par bhi nazar rakhe hue. Traders ko alert aur tayar rehna chahiye kyun ke significant US data ke release hone ke baad volatility ka imkaan hai.Jese jese din guzarta hai, yeh dekhna zaroori hoga ke pair in developments par kaise react karta hai. USD/JPY ka established support ya resistance levels ko break karna, future price action ke liye clearer signals provide karega. Market sentiment aur key economic indicators par nazar rakh kar, traders apne aap ko is currency pair ke complexities ko navigate karne ke liye effective tor par position kar sakte hai

Main is waqt real-time mein USD/JPY currency pair ka price analysis kar raha hoon. Hamari current expectations yeh hain ke hum ek munasib opportunity dekhain jo humein apne trading plans ko ya to upwards ya downwards execute karne ka mauqa dey. Yeh baat mad-e-nazar rakhte hue ke abhi ek strong downtrend chal raha hai, main yeh umeed karta hoon ke ek significant correction bane jo price ko temporarily upar le jaaye, aur phir decline ka silsila wapas shuru ho. Corection ka intezar karna trading mein ek mushkil kaam hota hai kyunki jab bhi price retracement karti hai to yeh us correction ka aghaz hota hai, aur USD/JPY pair ka behavior kabhi kabhi unpredictable ho sakta hai. Isliye ihtiyaat baratna zaroori hai. Main abhi ke current levels par selling mein dilchaspi nahi rakhta, lekin ek achi pullback zaroori hai pehle ke hum naye targets ka ta'aqqub karen.Jis tarah Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ke meetings ke natayij aane wale hain, market mein kaafi ziada volatility ki umeed hai. Mere analysis ke mutabiq, bearish side par abhi bhi mera rujhan hai, lekin ek strong pullback ki zarurat hai. Agar price 145.76 level ke upar chale jaaye, to phir yeh munasib hoga ke selling ko consider kiya jaye.USD/JPY pair Asian session mein ek tight range mein trade kar raha hai, jo ke kal ke closing levels ke qareeb hai. Yen ne Monday ko dollar ke muqable mein thodi kamzori dikhayi hai. Yeh move un expectations ki wajah se hai jo upcoming Federal Reserve meeting par hain jo ke Wednesday ko honi hai. Pair ab ek correction phase mein daakhil hone ki koshish kar raha hai, lekin mujhe yeh growth sustainable nahi lagti. Yen ke liye demand abhi bhi kaafi strong hai.Aaj ka din, USD/JPY pair ke liye US markets ka khulna intehai ahem hoga. US se kuch important economic data bhi aane wale hain jo currency markets mein significant volatility la sakte hain. Main expect nahi karta ke din ke pehle hissay mein koi bari moves dekhnay ko milengi, lekin overall downtrend ka silsila wapas shuru hone ka imkaan hai.Reversal point 141.35 par expect kiya ja raha hai, aur main us level ke neeche selling ka soch raha hoon, jisme targets 139.85 aur 139.35 par set hain. Aik doosra scenario yeh bhi hai ke agar pair 141.35 mark ko break kar ke us ke upar consolidate k

Is haftay ke tamaam aham bunyadi waqiyat ho chuke hain. Bazaar ne aik baar phir yeh sabit kiya hai ke bunyadi waqiyat ki fitrat zyada ahmiyat nahi rakhti. Har waqiya mein, dollar ke khilaaf kaam karne wale asbaab dhundh liye jaate hain aur baaqi sab kuch nazarandaz kar diya jata hai. Darhaqiqat, ab bazaar Fed ke rates aur BoE/European Central Bank ke rates mein farq ki roshni mein dollar bech sakta hai. Ab bazaar yeh tawaqo kar raha hai ke Fed apne rates ko British ya European central banks ke muqable mein zyada tezi se kam karega, jo ke ek naye selling ka silsila shuru kar sakta hai. Chunay ke ECB ka ijlaas bas pichlay haftay hua tha, ECB ki sarbaraah Christine Lagarde ka aaj ka khitaab bazaar ko koi naye ahmiyat ke maloomat nahi faraham karega General Nataij: Is haftay ke akhri trading din mein, dono currency pairs shayad bohat sukoon se trade karain. Majmoi tor par bazaar ka jazba yeh hai ke dono pairs aaj bhi barh sakte hain. Sath hi yeh bhi imkaan hai ke yeh correct karain. Is liye behtareen yeh hai ke technical levels, formations aur patterns ke bunyad par trade kiya jaye. Koi nahi jaanta ke bade players kab tak U.S. dollar ko bechte rahain gay aur kab tak Fed ke monetary easing ko price karte rahain gay. Jaisa ke hum ne pichle analysis mein 18 September ko peesh goyi ki thi, yen ne apni consolidation range ko barhaya aur neeche ke price channel se breakout kiya, jo ab mansookh ho chuka hai. Magar price ab bhi balance indicator line ke neeche hai, jo ke maujooda upward trend mein ek modrate correction ka ishara hai. Yeh correction MACD line tak gehra ho sakta hai jo ke 146.50 ke target level ke qareeb hai. Agar yeh level break ho jata hai, toh trend ko upward movement mein tabdeel kar diya jayega. Marlin oscillator ab bhi ek tang range mein hai (gray rectangle). Light green rectangle correct karne ki mumkin range ko zahir karta hai. Hum yeh tawaqo karte hain ke sideways trend jari rahega. Four-hour chart mein price balance aur MACD lines ke upar hai. Marlin positive area mein hai. 143.60 ke upar consolidate karna pehla koshish ho gi growth ki taraf 146.50 tak. MACD line (141.41) ke break hone se price ko 139.70-140.27 range test karne ka impetus milega

mai alag alag jagahon par invest kar sakoon. Jab tak pound aur yen ka muqabla hai, yeh kehna mushkil hai ke kaunsa instrument behtar hai, kyun ke har trader ki apni pasand hoti hai. Aur jab mai news indicators par focus nahi karta, toh yeh masla mere liye ziata ahemiyat nahi rakhta. Mai sirf chart par dekhta hoon aur wahan jo nazar aata hai, us par kaam karta hoon. Mera tareeqa sirf technical analysis par mabni hai, economic news ko main zyada ahmiyat nahi deta. Bus news release ka waqt yaad rakhta hoon. Maine yeh dekha hai ke kisi bhi news ka price direction par koi khas asar nahi hota jab news release hoti hai. USD/JPY ke hawalay se, jab se Bank of Japan ne rate hikes ka aaghaz kiya hai, ek medium-term downward trend ban sakta hai jisse paisa kamaya ja sakta hai. Agar price 149-150 tak barh jaye, toh mai sell karna shuru karunga. Halaanke abhi ek minimal correction hai, lekin technically yeh pair mazeed strong growth dekhna chahiye. Aise trend breakouts ka matlab hota hai ke mazid growth ki umeed hai, lekin filhal mujhe buy karne ka koi dil nahi hai. Technical Perspective se: USD/JPY pair is waqt 144.73 ke qareeb resistance ka samna kar rahi hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke price ko mazeed aage barhne mein mushkilat ho rahi hai. Agar hum daily chart ka jaiza lein, toh pair ek bearish outlook dikhata hai, jahan technical indicators ek possible decline ki taraf ishara karte hain. Haal hi mein bearish sentiment ke bawajood, USD/JPY ne apni position gain ki, aur 144.57 par close hui, jo 143.67 se barh kar 145.04 tak gayi thi. Yeh price action yeh dikhata hai ke pair abhi bhi kuch resilience dikha raha hai, halaanke bearish indicators hain. Traders ko umeed hai ke aaj USD/JPY 143.80 se 145.20 ke range mein trade karegi, jab ke ek ahem resistance level 145.70 par hai. Agar yeh resistance level barkarar rahta hai, toh pair ke liye mazeed barhna mushkil hoga. Technical setup yeh dikhata hai ke pair pichlay kuch dino mein koi significant decline nahi dikha saki, jo yeh imply karta hai ke bearish momentum ko market ke halat offset kar sakte hain. Ongoing resistance aur expected trading range yeh highlight karte hain ke market is waqt uncertain hai, aur traders ko resistance lev