usd/jpy ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY Price Movement Studies

Mein is waqt USD/JPY currency pair ka real-time pricing analysis kar raha hoon. Hamari current expectations yeh hain ke hum ek aisi mouqa talash karain jahan hum apne trading plans ko execute kar sakain, chahe price upar jaye ya neeche. Abhi ke strong downtrend ko dekhte hue, umeed hai ke ek ahem correction form ho, jo ke temporary rise ka sabab banay aur phir decline ka silsila dobara shuru ho. Correction ka intezar karna mushkil hota hai, kyun ke koi bhi retracement is baat ki nishani hoti hai ke correction shuru ho raha hai, aur is pair ka behavior kabhi kabhi unpredictable hota hai. Is liye ehtiyaat zaroori hai. Main filhal current levels par sell karne ka plan nahi kar raha, lekin ek notable pullback ka intezar hai taake naye targets achieve kiye ja sakain. Fed aur Bank of Japan ki aanay wali meetings ke natija mein expected volatility se significant price movements hone ke chances hain. Halanki mera bias ab bhi bearish side par hai, lekin ek bara pullback zaroori hai. Agar price 145.76 ke upar jaye, to selling ka socha ja sakta hai.






Interest rates ke hawale se, yeh factors long-term movements ko affect karte hain, lekin ek haftay ke andar prices ka swing zyada tar speculation aur varying expectations par hota hai. Prices 200 se 300 points tak kisi bhi direction mein move kar sakti hain. Agar technical perspective se dekha jaye, to koi clear indication nahi hai ke price mein substantial increase ho ga. Downtrend ke andar 100 points ka minor rise possible hai. Agar short-term movement buyers ki strength dikhaye, to yeh temporarily trend line ko break kar ke mazeed 200 points tak climb kar sakta hai, aur 144.66 ko touch kar sakta hai. Lekin USD/JPY pair ke liye meri thodi mukhtalif raye hai. Overall downward trend ab bhi clear hai, aur market mein neeche ki taraf pressure barkarar hai.

USD/JPY Ka Mutalia Aur Trading Insights

Pichlay roz USD/JPY pair ne aik muted trading pattern dikhaya, jahan price 140.80 ke aas paas hover karti rahi. Halka downward movement zarur tha, magar currency pair apni daily trading range mein hi raha. Market participants ka focus ziada tar Federal Reserve ke Chair Jerome Powell ki August mein Jackson Hole Symposium mein ki gayi speech par tha. Yeh ahem address market sentiment ko bohot zyada asar karega, jis ka asar currency exchange rates par bhi ho sakta hai.

Jackson Hole Symposium Aur Jerome Powell Ki Speech Ka Asar:

Jackson Hole Symposium aur Chair Jerome Powell ki speech USD/JPY pair ke future direction ko shape karne mein bohot ahem hogi. Investors inn developments ko bohot ghairatmandi se monitor karenge, taake Federal Reserve ki policy stance ke bare mein insights hasil kar sakein aur samajh sakein ke iska USD/JPY exchange rate par kya asar hoga. Market reactions in events par ziada depend karenge, aur is se currency pair ke near-term movements dictate honge.

USD/JPY Mein Halya Volatility:

USD/JPY ne halya dino mein kaafi fluctuations dekhi hain. Shuru mein, U.S. se expected se kam inflation data ki waja se downward movement dekhne ko mila. Phir Bank of Japan (BoJ) ne currency markets mein strategic interventions kiye. BoJ ne market ko surprise kiya jab unhone interest rates barha diye, jab ke Federal Reserve ne September ke liye ek rate cut ka plan announce kiya. Is faislay aur disappointing U.S. jobs report ne USD/JPY pair ko mazeed neeche daal diya.

Japan Ki Economic Performance:

Japan ke economic indicators ne kuch relief diya. Q2 mein Japan ka GDP 0.8% quarter-on-quarter barha, jo market expectations 0.5% se zyada tha. Yeh growth Q1 ke 0.6% decline se significant rebound tha, aur yeh 2023 ke shuru se sabse zyada quarterly growth thi. Annual basis par Japan ka GDP 3.1% barha, jo expected 2.1% se zyada tha, aur pichlay quarter ke 2.3% contraction ko reverse kiya. Yeh strong performance 2023 ke Q2 se sabse zyada yearly expansion ko darshata hai.






H1 Chart Technical Analysis Aur Immediate Resistance:

Technical analysis ke hawale se, USD/JPY pair ko qareebi resistance 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas paas 141.21 par face kar sakta hai. Agar yeh level break ho jata hai, to yeh pair 100-day EMA ke liye aim kar sakta hai jo ke 143.85 par hai, aur resistance level 144.00 ko test kar sakta hai. Yeh level jo pehle support tha, ab ek resistance point ban gaya hai, is liye yeh critical threshold hai jise closely dekhna zaruri hai.



H4 Chart Ka Mutalia Aur Current Trading Insights:

Monday ke trading session mein, USD/JPY pair 140.70 ke aas paas trade kar raha tha. Agar four-hour chart ko analyze karein, to pair 9-day EMA ke just neeche position mein hai, jo ke short-term bearish trend ko darshata hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) bhi thoda 30 ke upar hai, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke pair ek corrective movement ke liye tayar hai. Yeh technical indicator short-term adjustments ke liye ishara kar raha hai.

USD/JPY pair ne abhi abhi 144.53 ke support level ko tor diya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke downtrend ka silsila jari reh sakta hai. Breakout ke baad 99 points ki girawat hui, jis ke baad pair ne upward correction ki koshish ki, aur kharidaar 144.53 ke resistance level tak kuch ground wapas hasil karne mein kamyab hue. Iss muqam se sell positions kholna munasib ho sakta hai, aur mazeed girawat ka target 140-141 range tak ho sakta hai. Dosri surat mein, agar pair 144.53 resistance ke upar rebound hota hai, toh recovery jari reh sakti hai, aur agle resistance 146.38 tak ponchne ka aim ho sakta hai. Hourly chart par ek ascending channel jhanda ki tarah nazar aa raha hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend dobara shuru ho sakta hai. Lekin H4 chart par pair ek descending channel mein hai aur uski lower boundary se bounce off hua hai. Agar price 144.49 ko tor de, toh 145.69 ka target lekar khareedari ki strategy munasib ho sakti hai USD/JPY pair ne abhi hal hi mein 143 tak girawat dekhi thi, lekin American trading session ke akhir tak 100 points ka izafa hotay hue recovery ki. Daily price chart ab ek bullish pattern dikha raha hai. Bears abhi tak price ko 144.99 ke key level ke neeche dhakelne mein nakaam rahe hain, jis se downward trend ke jari rehne par shak paida hota hai. Maujooda market ki uncertainty ko dekhte hue, ki zaroorat hai, kyun ke price kuch dinon tak is level ke aas-paas reh sakti hai. US dollar index ne ek mazboot weekly support level ko choo liya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke dollar jald hi ek corrective rebound kar sakta hai. Speaker is waqt sirf sell positions lene ka soch raha hai aur buy karne ka koi irada nahi rakhta. Currency pair ne neeche se 143.99 level ko test kiya hai aur ab 144.49 tak upar chali gayi hai, jo ek positive sign hai, aur bulls Asian trading session ke dauran price ko mazeed 49 points tak le jaa sakte hain. Maujooda price 143.43 hai, jo 141.70 ke aham support level se thoda upar hai. Yeh level unn traders ka key target ho sakta hai jo girawat par bet kar rahe hain. Kuch consolidation ke baad, pair mazeed girne ka rujhaan rakh sakta hai. Lekin Bank of Japan ke hone ke bawajood, USD/JPY ki exchange rate mein zyada girawat ki umeed nahi ki ja sakti. Woh pehle hi ishara de chuke hain ke woh yen ki qeemat mein tezi se utar chadhav par mudakhlat kar sakte hain, jo ke yen ko kamzor kar sakta hai agar yeh ziyada mazboot ho jaye. Is liye, 129 ka target haqeeqat par mabni nahi lagta, kyun ke Bank of Japan 139 ke aas-paas mudakhlat kar sakta hai aur apni currency ko kamzor karne ke liye bazaar mein yen ki badi sikta inject kar sakta hai USD/JPY pair par asar fall Natija ye hai ke buying strength kam ho gayi hai

USD/JPY Analysis

Main 15-minute chart par dollar yen pair ko dekh raha hoon. Pair ne tab trade kiya jab seller ne resistance level 142.913 ke qareeb volume gain kiya tha. Is range ke tootne ke baad, seller ka volume bhi dikhayi diya, jo mazeed decline ka ishara tha. Hum dekhte hain ke pair 141.123 ke support ki taraf gaya, lekin yeh support abhi tak break nahi hua. Is point par seller ne phir se volume gain kiya, jo mazeed decline ka ishara tha. Jab tak support break nahi hota aur seller se volume nazar aata hai, yeh zarur indicate karta hai ke support break hoga, aur mein assume kar raha hoon ke pair neeche jayegi. Mera khayal tha ke yeh 139.583 ke support tak jayegi. Magar agar higher timeframes par dekha jaye to mujhe lagta hai ke is pair ka growth wapas hoga. Jab tak koi signal nahi milta, main assume karta hoon ke pair decline karegi aur phir se 139.583 ke support tak jayegi, aur mumkin hai ke support break hone ke baad aur neeche chali jaye.

Agar price movement ko daily dynamic channel ke lehaz se dekha jaye, to yeh pair kaafi oversold ho chuki hai apne sharp decline ke baad, aur ek normal correction ki zarurat hai. Aaj kuch plan hota nazar aaya, magar is baat ka andaza lagana mushkil hai ke yeh ek bara correction ka pehla hissa hai ya nahi. Yeh sirf ek rebound tha jo minimum level se wapas aaya aur 140.35 ke broken level ke upar consolidation ke saath exit kiya. Sab kuch descending channels ke andar ho raha hai aur price in channels ke andar move kar rahi hai bina trend ko break kiye. Lekin stochastic histogram par reversal signal nazar aaya hai. Shayad yeh ek bara reversal nahi ho, magar decline mein kuch slowdown zarur expected hai. Ab further upward movement ke liye zarurat hai ke price phir se 140.35 ke broken upward level tak aaye aur mazeed increase ke conditions bane.

USD/JPY ka 17 September, 2024 ka Forecast

Dost, lagta hai ke trend rukta nahi hai aur koi cheez isay tor nahi sakti. Agar yeh pair 142-142.50 ka level break kar leti hai, to yeh pehle 144-145 tak pohanchne ki koshish karegi aur phir 147.18 aur 149.40 tak, lekin abhi hum sirf 149-150 ke level ka khwab dekh sakte hain. Pehle to pair ko 141 ka level break karna hoga, ek chota girta hua channel break karna hoga aur phir 142-142.50 ke aas paas blue trend ko break karna hoga. Jab tak channel aur trend upar break nahi hota, aap trend ke khilaf khareed nahi sakte. Bas signal ka intezar karna hoga, warna agar abhi khareed liya to hum 138-137 ke levels tak ek girawat ka tohfa mil sakta hai. Aur level 140 ab tak break nahi hua, aaj pierced zaroor hua hai magar break nahi hua.

Iss haftay humein Fed ka rate aur Powell ka speech bhi dekhna hoga. Market is event ka mahine se intezar kar raha hai, aur ispar strong reaction ho sakti hai, khas kar agar Powell ne kuch harsh kaha ya economic forecasts positive aaye. Upar se, Central Bank of Japan ka signal bhi kaafi arsay se nahi aaya, aur jald hi meeting aur rate ka faisla bhi hoga. Magar kisi bhi surat mein, abhi humein signal ka intezar hai, jo ke abhi tak nahi mila.






Yeh zaroori nahi ke price itna upar jaaye, lekin agar last price move neeche ki taraf USDJPY ki liquidity ko completely hata chuka hai, to correction ka stage shuru ho sakta hai jo ke ek acchi price growth se zahir ho sakta hai. Yeh correction sirf upar wale levels ko test karne ke liye nahi, balke naye trading positions ke volumes ko set karne ke liye bhi ho sakta hai. Lekin abhi iss pair mein khareedna thik nahi hoga, kyun ke agar bullish signal ko volumes se confirm nahi kiya gaya, to price aur neeche gir sakti hai.

Agar hum ab 141.84 tak grow karte hain, aur wahan se price neeche jati hai, to aise mein USDJPY ka level 140.88 price ko neeche jaane nahi dega. Is scenario ke mutabiq, 140.88 ke accumulation se price 142.85 tak ja sakti hai, jahan se phir se ek badi girawat aasakti hai jo minimum se bhi neeche chali jaye.

USD/JPY

Main 15-minute chart pe dollar yen pair ko dekh raha hoon. Jab pair trade kar raha tha, tab seller resistance 142.913 ke paas volume gain kar raha tha. Jab yeh range tod gayi, to seller ka volume bhi nazar aaya, jo niche ke aur girne ka ishara tha. Hum dekhte hain ke pair support 141.123 ki taraf gaya, aur yahan support abhi tak nahi toota. Seller volume gain kar raha tha, jo ke aur girawat ka ishara tha. Jab support toota nahi hai aur seller ka volume hai, to yeh zaroori hai ke support niche ki taraf tootaega. Isliye maine assume kiya ke pair niche jayega, aur mujhe laga ke yeh support 139.583 tak jayega. Lekin higher timeframes par, mujhe lagta hai ke yeh pair upar ki taraf grow karega. Aur jab tak yahan aise signals nahi hain, main assume karunga ke pair girta rahega. Mujhe lagta hai ke yeh phir se support 139.583 ki taraf jayega aur ho sakta hai ke yeh usse bhi niche chale jaye.




Daily dynamic channel ke muqablay mein, pair kaafi der se oversold hai aur iski sharp decline ke baad ab ek theek-thaak correction ki zaroorat hai. Lagta hai ke aaj kuch plan kiya gaya hai, lekin yeh kehna mushkil hai ke yeh zyada extensive correction ki pehli wave hai. Yeh sirf minimum se rebound hai aur pehle toote hue level ke upar consolidation se exit hai, jo ke 140.35 ke aas-paas hai. Yeh sab descending channels ke andar ho raha hai aur price unke andar trend ko todte hue chal rahi hai. Lekin stochastic histogram par reversal signal nazar aaya hai. Shayad itni badi reversal nahi hai, lekin girawat ke dheere hone ke ummeed hai. Ab, aage ke upward movement ko confirm karne ke liye, 140.35 ke toote hue upward level par girawat aur increase ke conditions ka banana zaroori hai.

USD/JPY ka September 17, 2024 ka forecast

Dost, lagta hai ke trend rukta nahi hai aur koi cheez isse break nahi kar sakti. Agar pair 142-142.50 ka level todta hai, to pehle yeh 144-145 ke levels tak pohanchne ki koshish karega, phir 147.18 aur phir 149.40 tak jayega. Lekin abhi ke liye, hum sirf 149-150 level ka sapna dekh sakte hain. Pehle pair ko level 141 todna hoga, ek chhota girta hua channel todna hoga aur phir lagbhag 142-142.50 ke level par blue trend todna hoga. Agar yeh channel aur trend upar ki taraf nahi todta, to aap trend ke khilaf buy nahi kar sakte. Aapko bas ek signal ka intezaar karna hoga. Agar abhi buy karte hain bina signal ke, to hume gift mein 138-137 ke levels tak girawat mil sakti hai. Neeche ek target hai, aur level 140 ab tak nahi toota, aaj sirf choo liya hai lekin tod nahi saka. Is ke ilawa, iss haftay Fed ka rate aur Powell ka speech bhi expected hai. Market is event ka ek mahine se intezaar kar raha hai, aur reaction zabardast ho sakti hai, khaaskar agar woh disappoint karta hai ya sakhti se baat karta hai, aur agar economic forecasts positive hain. Central Bank of Japan se bhi kaafi arsay se koi signal nahi aya, aur jald unki meeting aur rate ka announcement hoga. Har surat mein hum signal ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo ke abhi nahi mila.




Ab yeh zaroori nahi hai ke price itna upar jayega, lekin agar aakhri price move ne USD/JPY ke neeche ka liquidity khatam kar diya hai, to ek corrective price rollback ka stage shuru ho sakta hai. Yeh rollback acchi price growth ke taur pe express ho sakta hai, aur yeh sirf upper levels ko test karne ke liye nahi balki naye trading positions banane ke liye bhi ho sakta hai. Halan ke, abhi ke liye iss pair mein buy karna theek nahi hoga, kyun ke agar hume volumes se current bullish signal ka confirmation nahi milta, to price aur niche gir sakta hai, aur bohot asani se. Agar hum ab 141.84 tak upar jate hain, aur uske baad price neeche girta hai, to aise halat mein USD/JPY ka 140.88 ka level price ko neeche jane nahi dega. Is scenario ke mutabiq, agar price 140.88 ke accumulation se upar jata hai, to pair ka price 142.85 ke level tak ja sakta hai, jahan bohot saare volumes majood hain. Wahan se ho sakta hai ke hum wapis neeche gir jayein aur ek naye minimum tak pohoch jayein.

USD/JPY ka currency pair paanchwein din bhi girawat ka shikar raha, aur Monday ki Asian trading session mein 140.30 level ke qareeb trade ho raha tha. Daily chart ka technical analysis yeh dikhata hai ke USD/JPY pair ek girta hua channel ke andar neeche ki taraf move kar raha hai, jo bearish trend ko confirm karta hai. Iske ilawa, 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) 21-day EMA se neeche hai, jo bearish momentum ki nishani hai. Lekin, 14-day relative strength index (RSI) ab 30 level se neeche trade kar raha hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke USD/JPY pair ab oversold zone mein hai, aur jald ek upward correction aasakti hai.

Support ke hisaab se, USD/JPY pair 140.25 level ko test kar raha hai, jo ke July 2023 ke baad ka sabse kam level hai. Agar yeh pair is level se upar move karne mein kamiyab ho jata hai, to yeh bearish bias ko barhawa de sakta hai aur pair ko 138.50 ke lower boundary tak push kar sakta hai.







Upar ki taraf dekha jaye to USD/JPY pair ko pehla resistance 9-day EMA ke qareeb 142.19 par milne ka imkaan hai, aur uske baad 21-day EMA par 144.04 ka level hai. Agar yeh pair in moving averages ko break kar leta hai, to downward pressure kam ho sakta hai aur pair ko 145.50 ke upper boundary tak le ja sakta hai. USD/JPY pair aaj ke din mein kafi zyada gir gaya, 14 mahine ka sabse kam level 139.56 tak pohanch gaya, aur yeh girawat ka silsila jari raha. Price mid-August se bearish trend mein hai, aur technical oscillators ne is girawat ko confirm kiya hai. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) apni trigger aur zero lines se neeche hai, jabke RSI bhi 30 level se neeche hai.

Agar girawat barh jaati hai to bears July 2023 ke low 137.25 tak pohanchne ki koshish karenge, aur phir April 2023 ka psychological level 133.00 tak dekhne ka imkaan hai. Thodi si upward movement ka samna short-term downtrend line par 141.70 ke qareeb resistance se hoga, jo upar ki taraf momentum ko roknay ka sabab ban sakti hai.

EUR/JPY ka currency pair doosray din bhi girawat ka shikar raha, aur Monday ki Asian trading session mein mid-$155.00 ke neeche trade kar raha tha. Yen ki girawat ka asli sabab bullish sentiment tha, lekin Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke ahm policy meeting se pehle follow-through buying nahi hui. BoJ officials ke recent hawkish signals yeh ishara karte hain ke central bank saal ke akhir tak interest rates ko mazeed barhane ka plan rakhta hai. Yeh tawaqo yen ko support kar rahi hai, jo ke EUR/JPY pair par dabao dal rahi hai. Guzishta haftay BoJ ke board member Junko Nakagawa ne kaha tha ke agar economy aur inflation unki expectations ke mutabiq raha, to central bank interest rates ko mazeed barhane par ghoor karega. Iske ilawa, ek aur BoJ board member Naoki Tamura ne bhi guzishta Jumerat ko yeh kaha ke central bank ko chhoti muddat ke interest rates ko fiscal 2026 tak 1% tak le aana chahiye, taa ke 2% inflation target ko musalsal haasil kiya ja sake. BoJ ka yeh stance European Central Bank (ECB) ke faislay ke bar’aks hai, jinhone pichlay haftay is cycle mein doosri baar interest rates cut kiye. ECB ke is faislay ka matlab yeh hai ke aane walay mahino mein borrowing costs mein kami hogi, jo euro ki kamzori ka aik aur sabab hai aur EUR/JPY pair ke tone par dabao dal rahi hai.







Technical analysis ke hawale se, 1.1020 supply area ke qareeb consolidation kal yeh zahir kar rahi thi ke buying interest kamzor tha. Jab tak pullback is area ke neeche rahta hai, mazeed selling ke imkanaat exposed point of control (POC) level 1.0987 tak hain, aur ho sakta hai ke yeh bearish zone 1.0965 tak barh jaye. Agar price 1.1020 ke upar break kar jati hai, to liquidity search ke imkanaat 1.1044 par baray volume lots tak barh sakti hain, lekin decline ka silsila dobara 1.0987 tak aasakta hai. Bearish scenario tab tak barqarar rahega jab tak rebound recent intraday resistance 1.1055 ko decide na kar le. Agar ECB rate cuts kam karti hai to euro positive react kar sakta hai aur din ke dauran key resistance levels ko tod sakta hai. Yeh mashwara diya jata hai ke short position tab tak na kholi jaye jab tak exhaustion/reversal (ERP) pattern 1.1020 ke neeche confirm na ho jaye. Agar yeh pattern nahi banta, to agle selling zone 1.1044 tak bounce ka intezar karna aur M5 technical setup ke zariye short entry ko confirm karna behtar rahega. Jaldi aur uncertain entries se ijtenaab karna chahiye.

Price test 140.61 par hua jab MACD indicator zero mark se neeche move karna shuru kar raha tha, jo ke ek valid entry point ko confirm kar raha tha dollar ko sell karne ke liye, jo ke ongoing bearish trend ke mutabiq tha. Iske natije mein, pair sirf 25 pips tak drop hui, lekin hum target level 139.80 tak nahi pohanch sake. Halaanke dollar ke liye bearish market barqarar hai, magar current lows par sell karte waqt ehtiyaat karni chahiye. Pair par Federal Reserve ke faislay se pehle selling pressure hoga—khaaskar upward corrections ke dauran, jisse hum faida uthayenge. Behtar yeh hoga ke chhoti correction ka intezar kiya jaye aur naye short positions open kiye jayein downward trend ko barqarar rakhne ke liye, bajaye lows par sell karne ke, jahan large stop-loss lagana aur bull trap mein phasna ho sakta hai. Intraday strategy ke hawale se, main ziada scenarios No. 1 aur 2 par rely karunga.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Main aaj USD/JPY khareedne ka plan bana raha hoon jab entry point 140.41 (chart par green line) ke qareeb ho, aur target ho 141.29 level (chart par thick green line). 141.29 ke qareeb main long positions exit karunga aur opposite direction mein shorts open karunga (entry point se 30-35 pips ka move expect kar raha hoon). Aaj ke din pair ka growth sirf ek correction ka hissa hoga. Important! Buy karne se pehle yeh zaroor dekhein ke MACD indicator zero line ke upar ho aur apna upward movement shuru kar raha ho.

Scenario No. 2: Main USD/JPY khareedne ka plan tab bhi bana raha hoon agar 139.90 level ke do consecutive tests hoon jab MACD indicator oversold area mein ho. Yeh pair ke downside potential ko limit karega aur market ko upward reversal par le aayega. 140.41 aur 141.29 ke opposite levels tak rise expect kiya jaa sakta hai.






Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Main USD/JPY aaj sirf tab sell karne ka plan bana raha hoon jab 139.90 level ka test ho (chart par red line), jisse pair mein tezi se girawat aayegi. Sellers ka key target 139.01 level hoga, jahan main short positions exit karunga aur foran opposite direction mein longs open karunga (is level se 20-25 pips ka move opposite direction mein expect kar raha hoon). Dollar ke liye bearish market barqarar hai, is liye pressure pair par wapas aasakta hai. Important! Sell karne se pehle zaroor dekhein ke MACD indicator zero line ke neeche ho aur apna downward movement shuru kar raha ho.

Scenario No. 2: Main USD/JPY aaj tab bhi sell karne ka plan bana raha hoon agar 140.41 level ke do consecutive tests hoon jab MACD indicator overbought area mein ho. Yeh pair ke upward potential ko limit karega aur market ko downward reversal par le aayega. 139.90 aur 139.01 ke opposite levels tak decline expect kiya jaa sakta hai.

USD/JPY

Subah bakhair sab ko!

Friday ko USD/JPY market mein tezi se girawat dekhi gayi, jo ke ek strong bearish movement ka nateeja tha aur isne kai traders ko hairan kar diya. Is girawat ke bawajood, market mein reversal ka imkaan hai kyun ke buyers wapas aa sakte hain aur 141.55 ke zone ki taraf bullish safar shuru kar sakte hain. Yeh recent drop un logon ke liye ek buying opportunity ho sakti hai jo possible rebound ka faida uthana chahte hain. Is waqt ke market setup ke mutabiq, main USD/JPY par buy order ko prefer karta hoon, jisme short-term target 141.55 hai, aur umeed hai ke aane walay sessions mein buyers phir se momentum hasil karenge. Hum aaj ke liye ek sell trading plan bhi bana sakte hain, lekin aise volatile market mein hamesha ehtiyat zaroori hai.




Is liye trading plan mein stop loss ko shamil karna bohot zaroori hai taake aap apne account ko unexpected losses se bacha saken. Market ka movement bohot unpredictable hota hai, aur stop loss aapko downside risks se bachne mein madad dega, taake agar market aapke position ke khilaf move kare to bhi aapka capital mehfooz rahe. Stop loss ko ek strategic level par set karna bohot ahmiyat rakhta hai, taake aapke trade ka risk-reward ratio achha rahe. Aane wale dinon mein yeh clear ho jayega ke kya buyers market mein wapas aa sakte hain aur price ko 141.55 ke resistance zone tak push kar sakte hain. Market sentiment mein positive developments ya USD aur JPY se mutaliq economic indicators bullish case ko aur mazboot bana sakte hain.

Umeed hai ke yeh factors buyers ke haq mein kaam karenge, aur unhein market mein survive karne aur upward movement ko barqarar rakhne mein madad denge.

Aap sab ke liye trading ka din kamiyabi ka ho!

Kal US Empire State Manufacturing index ke positive results ne USD/JPY market ko upar bounce karne mein madad di, jahan yeh -4.1 se 11.5% par chali gayi, aur price ne 140.72 zone ko successfully cross kiya. Aaj ke din market sentiment ko samajhna, technical aur fundamental analysis dono ka aik combination zaroori hai.historical price charts ka mutala karta hai aur moving averages, RSI (Relative Strength Index), aur Bollinger Bands jese indicators ko use karta hai taa keh market patterns aur trends ko pehchana ja sake. Yeh tools price movement ke future trends ka andaza lagane mein madad dete hain, jo traders ko trade entry aur exit ke decisions le ne mein guide karte hain. economic data, corporate earnings, interest rates aur geopolitical events ko evaluate karta hai jo market behavior ko affect kar sakte hain. Jab hum technical aur fundamental analysis ko combine karte hain, tou yeh market ka aik complete view deta hai aur price movements ke hawalay se accurate predictions ko enhance karta hai.
USD/JPY trading ke liye, main aik buy order ko prefer karta hoon, short-term target 141.45 par rakhtay hue. Yeh resistance zones trading mein important levels hote hain, jahan price aksar rukawat face karti hai. Agar price in zones ko break karta hai, tou yeh aik strong bullish trend ka signal ho sakta hai. Is waqt buyers optimistic hain ke price is resistance zone ko cross karegi, jo further gains ka imkaan barhata hai. Yeh optimism broader economic factors aur investor confidence se bhi asarandaz ho sakti hai.Hopefully, USD/JPY market buyers ko stable rakhega aur resistance zone 141.45 ko jaldi cross karne mein madad dega.

Ab agar hum price movement ka mutala karain tou lagta hai ke pair ne 139.57 ke low ko touch karne ke baad upar ki taraf correction shuru ki hai. Agar yeh price correction EMA 50 ya FR 38.2 – 140.90 ke upar rehti hai, tou price retracement FR 50 – 141.31 ya FR 61.8 – 141.72 tak complete ho sakta hai. Yeh upward correction sirf aik lower high pattern banane tak mehdoood ho sakti hai, jahan price movement kaafi strong bearish trend ko continue karne ka imkaan rakhti hai.
Trend direction abhi bhi strong bearish hai aur 143.05 ke high prices ko touch karna is waqt mushkil lagta hai jab ke current price 140.71 par hai. Trading strategy yeh hai ke bearish trend ko follow karein, aur sell entry ko FR 50 – 141.31 se FR 61.8 – 141.72 tak place karein. Stochastic indicator ke cross aur AO indicator histogram ke level 0 ke neeche jaane ka intizaar karein jo downtrend momentum ko indicate karein. Take profit target low prices 139.57 par rakhein aur stop loss ko FR 78.6 – 142.30 ke qareeb rakhein jo SMA 200 ke sath confluence mein hai.

Daily timeframe mein USD/JPY currency pair ki price trend movement ka tajziya kiya jaye, toh guzishta haftay ki trading session mein dekhne ko milta hai ke market par zyadatar sellers ka asar tha. Candlestick movement consistent bearish momentum ko dikhata hai, jo pichlay haftay se start hui aur haftay ke end tak qaim rahi. Khaas tor par last trading day par ek lambi bearish candlestick bani, jo Monday ke opening price ke muqablay mein kaafi neeche close hui. Yeh sab kuch is baat ko wazeh karta hai ke market mein stable volatility ke sath ek mazid bearish condition chal rahi hai.
Is hafte ke bearish movement ko pichle haftay ke trend ka continuation samjha ja sakta hai, jo market ke mazeed bearish direction mein move karne ke imkanaat ko barhata hai.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) ka Lime Line ka direction wazeh hai. Pehle yeh line aksar level 50 ke qareeb thi, lekin ab yeh level 30 ke neeche gir gayi hai, jo market ke bearish hone ki dalalat karta hai. MACD (12,26,29) ke histogram bars ka bhi shape chota hota dikh raha hai, jo mazeed bearish trend ki nishani hai. MACD ka dotted Yellow Line bhi neeche ki taraf move kar raha hai, jo sellers ki strength ko highlight karta hai. Upar se, candlestick Simple Moving Average 60 ke neeche gir chuka hai, jo ke mazeed bearish trend ka ishara deta hai.

USD/JPY pair ne pechlay lows ko break kiya hai aur apna price pattern alter kar diya hai, jo yeh batata hai ke abhi sellers market ko control kar rahe hain. Indicators aur moving averages se bhi yeh hint milta hai ke bearish trend mazeed barqarar reh sakta hai. Weekly Fibonacci retracement levels ko dekha jaye toh 38.1% ke qareeb support maujood hai, jo agar price neeche jati hai, tou buying interest ke wajah se ek reversal ka imkaan paida ho sakta hai.

Lekin, sellers ko abhi mazeed price ko neeche le jane mein challenges ka samna hai. Agar 38.1% ka support level qaim rehta hai, tou ek rebound ka imkaan hai jo 14.5% Fibonacci retracement level tak ho sakta hai. Traders ko price movements ko closely monitor karna chahiye, khaas tor par 140.84 ke support level par selling opportunities aur 141.55 ke resistance level par buying signals ko dekhna chahiye.

Technical outlook se lagta hai ke USD/JPY pair qareebi muddat mein apne bearish trend ko continue karega, magar key support levels aur aane walay economic data price movement ke future direction ko asarandaz kar sakte hain.

US dollar ne shuru mein Japanese yen ke muqablay mein week ke dauran rally karne mein kafi mushkilat ka samna kiya, aur yeh ¥144 ke level tak pohanch gaya. Lekin, jaldi hi market ne reverse kiya aur ¥141 ke qareebi support tak gir gaya. Is waqt market ek bohot important point par hai, jahan se yeh ya to recover kar sakta hai ya aur bhi gir sakta hai. Federal Reserve se umeed hai ke woh interest rates cut karega, jab ke Bank of Japan ke paas rates ko barhane ki capacity kam hai kyun ke Japan ka qarza bohot zyada hai. Japan ki financial situation yeh mushkil bana deti hai ke mulk apne qarz ko higher interest rates par service kar sake, jo unki monetary policy ko flexible banane mein rukawat hai.

Doosri taraf, US se ane wali inflation data expectations se zyada hoti nazar ayi, jo US dollar ke recovery ko support kar sakti hai. Lekin agar market ¥140 ke level se neeche gir jati hai, to yeh ek badi girawat ka sabab ban sakta hai. Yahan yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke markets oversold hone ke bawajood girna jaari rakh sakti hain, is liye ehtiyat ki zaroorat hai.




Agar market weekly candle ke upar break kar jata hai, jo ke kareeban ¥144 ke aas paas hai, to hum phir se buyers ki taraf se interest dekh sakte hain, jahan traders dollar ko yen ke muqablay mein ooper dhakelne ki koshish karenge. Yahan tak ke yeh scenario asani se play out nahi hoga, magar yeh ek possibility hai jo investors ko mad e nazar rakhni chahiye. Overall, market ka direction un factors par depend karega jese ke rate decisions aur inflation trends aane walay dino mein kaise evolve karte hain. Halat volatile hai aur traders ko kisi bhi bare shift ya economic data ke liye hoshiyar rehna chahiye.

Juma ke din, USD ke muqablay mein Yen ka spot price girawat ka shikar raha, jo ke iske recent losses ko aur barhata gaya. Yeh lagataar girawat khas tor par Middle East mein barhti hui geopolitical tensions ke dauran kaafi tawajjo ka markaz ban gayi hai, jo ke Yen ke liye kuch rahat faraham kar sakti hain. Israeli intelligence reports ke mutabiq, Iran Israel par seedha hamla karne wala hai, Ismail Haniyeh ke Tehran mein qatal ke jawab mein. Market ke band hone tak, USD/JPY currency pair takriban 140.81 par trade kar raha tha.

USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:

Doosri taraf, US Dollar apne challenges ka samna kar raha hai. Traders ab September mein US Federal Reserve (Fed) se bara rate cut expect kar rahe hain. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, ab 50-basis point (bps) cut ka imkaan 72.0% tak barh gaya hai, jo pichlay haftay ke 11.8% se bohot zyada hai. Iske bawajood, USD ne apne kuch intraday losses wapas hasil kar liye hain. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ki qeemat ko 6 bara currencies ke muqablay mein naapta hai, abhi bhi 101.00 ke aas paas stable hai.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke July 30-31 Monetary Policy Meeting ki Summary of Opinions se pata chalta hai ke kai members ka yeh maanna hai ke economy aur prices mutawaqqa ke mutabiq progress kar rahe hain. BoJ ka medium-term mein "kam az kam 1%" ka neutral rate ka irada hai. Lekin BoJ ka hawkish stance zyada dair ka asar nahi daal payega. Global risk aversion policy-tightening cycle ko rok sakti hai. Saath hi, Japan ke equity markets mein BoJ ke accommodative policies ke withdrawal ke baad volatility ne rate hikes ke prospects ko bhi mutasir kiya hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

USD/JPY pair ko foran resistance 143.06 ke aas paas nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par mil sakta hai. Agar yeh level breach hota hai, to bearish momentum kam ho sakta hai aur pair 50-day EMA at 149.33 ka test kar sakta hai, jiske baad 150.50 par "throwback support turned resistance" aa sakta hai. Neeche ki taraf, pair ko 140.00 ke aas paas support mil sakta hai, aur agla support 139.25 par ho sakta hai.




Friday tak, yeh pair 140.80 par trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ke analysis se pata chalta hai ke yeh pair abhi bhi nine-day EMA ke neeche hai, jo ke short-term mein bearish trend ka izhar karta hai. Saath hi, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 30 level ke upar chala gaya hai, jo yeh batata hai ke ek possible correction ab underway ho sakta hai.