usd/jpy

USD/JPY ne 0.40% se barh kar 146.74 ka level pakra. Monday ko U.S. ki public holiday ki wajah se dollar ki volatility thodi flat rahi, lekin agle dinon mein macroeconomic data ka silsila shuru ho raha hai, khaaskar Friday ko non-farm payrolls data jo climax tak pohnchega. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell ne inflation se ladne se zyada naukriyon ko bachane par focus shift kar diya hai, isliye Friday ko release hone wala U.S. non-farm payrolls report bahut hi ahem hai. Analysts kehte hain ke employment data se Fed ke rate cuts ke expectations ka pata chalega. Kuch hafton se market 25 basis points rate cut ki possibility ko digest kar rahi hai. Inflation data ke mutabiq, rate cut chhota hone ki umeed hai, is wajah se long-term U.S. Treasury yields ne mid-August ke baad se sabse uncha level pakra, aur dollar ne August 20 ke baad se sabse ucha level chhoda. U.S. GDP data ne bhi yeh dikhaya ke economic foundation itni mazboot hai ke Federal Reserve ko policy ko relax karne mein kam aggressive rehna chahiye. Reuters se survey kiye gaye economists ko umeed hai ke August mein U.S. non-farm payrolls 165,000 tak barhenge, jo pichle mahine se 114,000 zyada hai. Analysts kehte hain agar data forecast ke nazdeek hota hai, to U.S. economy ko soft landing milne ki umeed hai aur Fed is mahine 25 basis points policy ko ease kar sakta hai. Lekin agar data 100,000 ya usse kam hota hai, to hard landing ka risk barh jayega aur market ko lagta hai ke 50 basis points rate cut ka possibility zyada hai. Non-farm payrolls data ka impact U.S. dollar par ek waqt ke liye zyada hoga.
USDJPY pair ko bechne ke liye ziyata raaghib hain, shayad badalte hue economic halaat, geopolitical factors, ya technical signals ke wajah se jo pehle ke uptrend ko kamzor kar rahe hain. 146.86 zone tak girawat khaas ahmiyat rakhti hai kyunke yeh ek critical support level hai jise traders ghore se dekh rahe hain. Agar sellers apni momentum barqarar rakhte hain aur price ko is level se neeche le jate hain, to yeh ek lambe downtrend ki shuruaat ka ishara ho sakti hai. Iske ilawa, USDJPY par yeh bearish pressure ziyata economic concerns ka aks ho sakta hai. Misal ke taur par, agar US dollar kamzor ho raha hai due to softer economic data ya Federal Reserve ke dovish comments ke wajah se, to yeh pair ke decline mein ek sabab ban sakta hai. Dosri taraf, Japanese yen mein mazid taqat, shayad safe-haven demand ya positive domestic economic indicators ke wajah se, is downward movement ko barhawa de sakti hai. Traders ke liye yeh tabdeeli both challenges aur opportunities paida karti hai. Jo log long positions hold kar rahe hain, unko apni strategies dobara ghore se dekhni par sakti hai, special agar pair support levels ko tor kar neeche jata hai. Wahan short sellers ke liye yeh environment mazeed girawat se faida uthane ke liye moafiq ho sakta hai, opsalar agar bearish momentum barhti hai. Bunyadi baat yeh hogi ke dekhna hoga ke USDJPY pair 146.86 level ke ird gird kis tarah behave karta hai aur kya yeh zone reversal ka point banega ya sirf mazeed bearish action ke liye ek stepping stone banega. USDJPY pair ke recent price action se yeh zahir hota hai

THE CURRENCY PAIR USD-JPY
Have a nice day and profitable trading to all forum members! Mai apna nazariya share karna chahta hoon is instrument ke trading situation ke liye. Technical analysis shuru karte hue, maine chart par Heikin Ashi indicator lagaya hai, jo pair ke movement ko alternative Heikin Ashi candles se dikhata hai. Iska faida ye hai ke ye market noise ko smooth kar deta hai. Heikin Ashi ka ek khaas tareeqa hota hai price bars banane ka, jo price chart display karte waqt delay ko kaafi kam kar deta hai. Channel indicator TMA (Triangular Moving Average) working chart par support aur resistance lines draw karta hai, jo twice-smoothed moving averages ka use karke instrument ke current channel boundaries ko dikhata hai.

Aur akhri oscillator jo deal ko filter karta hai, aur Heikin Ashi ke sath mil kar positive trading results haasil karne mein madad karta hai, wo hai basement indicator RSI jo standard settings ke sath hai. Agar hum is instrument ke chart ka analysis karein, to humein nazar aata hai ke candles ka rang laal ho gaya hai, jo ye dikhata hai ke sellers filhal buyers se zyada strong hain aur price ko neeche le ja rahe hain. Price ne channel ke upper boundary (blue dotted line) ko cross kiya aur maximum point se bounce karte hue wapis middle line (yellow dotted line) ki taraf ja raha hai.
maloomat se mujhe ye samajh aata hai ke filhal pair ko sell karna munasib hai. Saath hi, RSI oscillator bhi sell signal ko confirm kar raha hai kyun ke iska curve neeche ki taraf hai aur oversold level se kaafi door hai. Upar diye gaye sab ko summarize
Is maloomat se mujhe ye samajh aata hai ke filhal pair ko sell karna munasib hai. Saath hi, RSI oscillator bhi sell signal ko confirm kar raha hai kyun ke iska curve neeche ki taraf hai aur oversold level se kaafi door hai. Upar diye gaye sab ko summarize karte hue, hum sell karne ka faisla karte hain aur entry points dhoondte hain. Hum take profit ko market quotes ke channel ke lower boundary (red dotted line) ko touch karne par set karte hain, jiska price mark 0.83900 hai.

Greetings aur Good Morning sab visitors ko!

USD/JPY market kal 142.00 zone tak pohanch gaya, jo traders ke liye aik important area hai. Magar buyers ko consistently momentum lose karte dekha gaya hai jab se negative US Core PPI data release hua hai. Ye weaker-than-expected report US economy mein softer inflationary pressure ko zahir karti hai, jo US dollar ko weigh kar rahi hai aur USD/JPY pair ko impact kar rahi hai. Is ka natija ye hai ke buying strength kam ho gayi hai, aur market mein aik zyada cautious sentiment dekhne ko mil raha hai. Aaj ka market action ziada tar further economic data releases, khaaskar US inflation expectations aur consumer confidence reports par depend karega, jo USD/JPY ki direction ko tay karegi. Mein short-term target 142.47 ke saath buy order ko prefer karta hoon. Halan ke buyers is waqt struggle kar rahe hain, upcoming news data unhain dobara strength dene ka moqa de sakti hai, aur prices ko upar push karne mein madadgar ho sakti hai. Agar US inflation expectations ya consumer confidence mein koi positive shift aata hai, to US dollar ki demand dobara barh sakti hai, jo buyers ko recent losses se recover karne mein madad karegi. 142.47 level aik reasonable target hai, kyun ke ye aik near-term resistance area hai jahan traders expect kar sakte hain ke price temporarily stall karegi, is se pehle ke agle move ka faisla kiya jaye. Waisay, USD/JPY buyers ke liye pehle ke losses ko successfully cover karne ka potential mojood hai agar market favorable developments dekhti hai. Traders ko hoshiyar rehna chahiye, inflation expectations aur consumer confidence data ko qareebi tor par monitor karte hue ye assess karna chahiye ke bullish sentiment sustain ho sakti hai ya nahi. Dekhte hain agle kuch ghanton mein kya hota hai.

Stay blessed aur Stay safe!

**Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY**
Jibun Banking Services PMI figures ka elaan Wednesday ko hone ke baad, USD ke muqable mein USD/JPY exchange rate ne momentum gain karna jari rakha. Index ko pehle ki projection 54.0 se revise karke August mein 53.7 par laya gaya. Chahe carrier business saat mahine se barh raha ho, lekin July ke latest statistics mein koi tabdeeli nahi hui. U.S. employment data, khaaskar August ke non-farm payrolls (NFP), ne traders ko pehle hi warning de di thi, jis ne dollar ko steer kiya. Ye haqiqat Fed ke rate cuts ke timing aur scale par bhi kuch insight de sakti hai. Wednesday ko USD/JPY takreeban 145.40 par trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ka analysis yeh dikha raha hai ke market mein bearish trend hai kyun ke 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) 21-day EMA ke neeche hai.

**Hamari guftagu USD/JPY currency pair ke live pricing ko decode karne par hai.** Jab koi willing buyer ko sell karta hai ya jab buyer apni position average karta hai, tab price movements hoti hain. Kuch levels par buyers ko opportunity nazar aati hai aur wo market mein enter karte hain. Jab declines hote hain, to lagta hai ke stop-loss orders trigger ho jate hain, jo key levels break hone ke baad price ko tezi se neeche le jaate hain. Yeh is wajah se hota hai ke stops zyada large sales ko initiate karte hain, jo agle central buying zone tak jaari rehti hain. Bunyadi taur par downward move expected hai, lekin hamesha ye possibility rehti hai ke buyers price ko next resistance, jo ke 142.39 par hai, tak push kar sakte hain, shayad aur zyada upar bhi ja sakte hain. Behtareen ye hai ke situation ko dekhte rahein jab tak koi aage ki prediction na ki ja sake. 4-hour chart se continued downward momentum ka ishara mil raha hai, lekin yeh movement expected thi. Ideally, bearish push ko


141.694 ke low se correct hone ke baad hi hona chahiye tha. Mai sab yen pairs ke daily charts par focus kar raha hoon aur ab tak koi significant rebounds nazar nahi aaye. Chhote time frames sirf entryishara mil raha hai, lekin yeh movement expected thi. Ideally, bearish push ko 141.694 ke low se correct hone ke baad hi hona chahiye tha. Mai sab yen pairs ke daily charts par focus kar raha hoon aur ab tak koi significant rebounds nazar nahi aaye. Chhote time frames sirf entry points ko pinpoint karne ke liye useful hain, lekin broader outlook steady hai — downward movement jari hai. Ek local platform form ho chuka hai, lekin aage targets hain. points ko pinpoint karne ke liye useful hain, lekin broader outlook steady hai — downward movement jari hai. Ek local platform form ho chuka hai, lekin aage targets hain. Yeh baat bhi noteworthy hai ke negative NFP data ke bawajood, dollar Friday ko strengthen hua, halanke is pair par iska zyada asar nahi pada, jo yen ki resilience ko dikhata hai. Mazeed, Japan ka GDP data bhi raat ko release hoga. Mai Southern bias ko maintain karta hoon, lekin agar hum 146.64 ke upar chadhte hain, to mai us level par selling opportunities consider kar sakta hoon.

USDJPY
Main ne Thursday ko guzishta haftay support level 141.788 se local trend line (green, sloping line) tak ek bullish jump ki umeed ki thi, trading idea ke tehat ek reversal pattern "Hammer" ke formation ka level tha candlestick par. Pattern bullish correction ka driver lag raha tha aur long position mein enter karna bilkul logical tha. Mazeed, interesting baat ye thi ke movement shuru bhi hui, lekin phir ek seller aaya aur price ko aur zyada south ki taraf turn kar diya, support 141.788 ko todte hue, aur neeche 140.173 ke support tak pohanch gaya.

Yeh sab kuch ho raha tha Stochastic par bullish divergence ke background ke against, lekin phir ek "Hammer" bana aur maine counter-trend purchase ka risk liya (jo long position mein se nikaal diya gaya), lekin ab kya karein? Kya ab dobara long ka risk lena chahiye jabke sirf oscillators ke signals hain ke pair oversold ho gaya hai? Mujhe samajh nahi aa raha.
level 140.80 par hai, to is baat ko nazarandaz nahi kiya ja sakta ke bull apni upward movement wapis shuru kar sakta hai from current price location ke sath, growth ka prospect 151.35 tak ja sakta hai. Lekin purchase mein enter karna khatarnaak hai, kyunke price asal mein neeche bhi ja sakta hai, 138.04-139.43 ke support zone tak. Is case mein southern scenario
Mere khayal mein, ek bohat acha support level 140.80 par hai, to is baat ko

nazarandaz nahi kiya ja sakta ke bull apni upward movement wapis shuru kar sakta hai from current price location ke sath, growth ka prospect 151.35 tak ja sakta hai. Lekin purchase mein enter karna khatarnaak hai, kyunke price asal mein neeche bhi ja sakta hai, 138.04-139.43 ke support zone tak. Is case mein southern scenario relevant hoga, lekin sale mein sirf tabhi enter kiya ja sakta hai jab ek achi upward correction ho. Neeche mere chart par maine draw kiya hai jahan main short transaction mein enter karna chahta hoon, aur price ko chart par kaise move karna chahiye. Agar kuch plan ke mutabiq nahi hota, to is case mein main market mein enter nahi karunga!

USD/JPY pair mein tezi se decline dekha gaya aur yeh qareeb 145.00 tak gira, jo Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke hawkish stance ki wajah se hua. Ueda ne ek baar phir BOJ ke interest rates ko is saal mazeed barhane ki zarurat par zor diya, aur yeh bhi kaha ke agar economic aur inflationary conditions expectations ke mutabiq hoti hain to central bank action lene mein hichkichaye ga nahi. Is bayan ne Japanese yen ko mazid strong kiya, jis se USD/JPY pair par selling pressure barh gaya. Yeh likhne ke waqt tak pair 144.80 ke support level par hold kar raha hai. Iske bawajood ke US dollar mazboot hai, jo ke US Dollar Index (DXY) ke 102.00 tak ke do haftay ke high ki taraf badhne se zahir hota hai, USD/JPY pair ab bhi pressure mein hai. tehat ek reversal pattern "Hammer" ke formation ka level tha candlestick par. Pattern bullish correction ka driver lag raha tha aur long position mein enter karna bilkul logical tha. Mazeed, interesting baat ye thi ke movement shuru bhi hui, lekin phir ek seller aaya aur price ko aur zyada south ki taraf turn kar diya, support 141.788 ko todte hue, aur neeche 140.173 ke support tak pohanch gaya.

Yeh sab kuch ho raha tha Stochastic par bullish divergence ke background ke against, lekin phir ek "Hammer" bana aur maine counter-trend purchase ka risk liya (jo long position mein se nikaal diya gaya
US dollar tab barha jab investors ne ehtiyaat se qadam uthaye, khaaskar August ke US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data ke aane ka intezaar karte hue, jo Friday ko release hoga. Yeh economic data bohot ahem hai kyun ke Federal Reserve ab mazid labor market ke downside risks manage karne par tawajju de raha hai, ke inflation apne 2% ke target par wapas aa rahi hai. Economic calendar ke mutabiq… Tokyo ka consumer price index (CPI), fresh food ko chhod kar, August mein unexpected tor par tez barha aur 2.4% tak pohanch gaya, jo ke Bank of Japan ke hawkish stance ko justify karta hai.

Stock trading front par…. U.S. stock indices ne bohot nuksan uthaya, khaaskar technology stocks ke lead mein… Trading ke mutabiq, U.S. stocks Tuesday ko tezi se gire, jo ke 5 August ke baad ka sabse bura din tha, economic concerns aur technology stocks mein bare sale-offs ki wajah se. Iske mutabiq, S&P 500 2.1% gira, tech-heavy Nasdaq 3.1% neeche gaya, aur Dow Jones ne 625 points kho diye.

Friday ko, spot price US Dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein apni mushkilat mein aur izafa dekh raha tha, jo ke hal hi ke nuqsaan ko barha raha hai. Yeh chal raha girawat khaas tawajjo ka markaz ban gayi hai, khaaskar jab ke Middle East mein geopolitics ka tension barh raha hai, jo shayad Yen ko kuch raahat de sakta hai. Israeli intelligence reports ke mutabiq, Iran shayad Israel ke khilaf seedha hamla karne wala hai Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh ki Tehran mein qatal ka jawab dene ke liye. Market band hone tak, USD/JPY currency pair takreeban 140.81 par trade kar raha tha.

USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:

US Dollar apni khud ki challenges ka samna kar raha hai. Traders ab September mein US Federal Reserve (Fed) se zyada bade rate cut ki ummed rakh rahe hain. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 50-basis point (bps) cut ka 72.0% probability hai, jo ke pichle hafte ke 11.8% probability se kaafi zyada hai. Iske bawajood, USD ne kuch intraday losses recover kiye hain. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ke value ko chhe bade currencies ke muqablay mein maapta hai, 101.00 ke as-pass stable hai.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki July 30-31 ke Monetary Policy Meeting ki Summary of Opinions kehti hai ke kuch members ko lagta hai ke economy aur prices expected ke mutabiq progress kar rahe hain. BoJ ka maqsad medium term mein "kam se kam 1%" ka neutral rate hai. Lekin, BoJ ki hawkish stance ka asar shayad lamba na chale. Global risk aversion policy-tightening cycle ko rok sakta hai. BoJ ke accommodative policies ko withdraw karne ke baad Japan ke equity markets ki volatility ne rate hikes ke prospects ko bhi influence kiya hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

USD/JPY pair foran resistance face kar sakta hai nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par jo 143.06 ke level ke aas-paas hai. Agar is level ke upar breakout hota hai, toh bearish momentum kam ho sakta hai aur pair 50-day EMA jo 149.33 par hai, tak test kar sakta hai, uske baad "throwback support turned resistance" jo 150.50 par hai. Neeche ki taraf, pair 140.00 level ke aas-paas support pa sakta hai, aur usse bhi zyada neeche 139.25 par further support mil sakta hai.

Jumeraat ko, USD/JPY pair lagbhag 140.80 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. Daily chart ka tajziya karne par yeh pata chalta hai ke pair nine-day EMA ke niche hai, jo short term mein bearish trend ko darshata hai. Iske ilawa, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI ne 30 ke level ko paar kar liya hai, jo yeh sujhaata hai ke shayad ek potential correction shuru ho sakti hai.

USD/JPY currency pair ki qeemat ki haliya soorat-e-haal ka tajziya hai. USD/JPY pair ne abhi abhi 144.53 ke support level ko tor diya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke downtrend ka silsila jari reh sakta hai. Breakout ke baad 99 points ki girawat hui, jis ke baad pair ne upward correction ki koshish ki, aur kharidaar 144.53 ke resistance level tak kuch ground wapas hasil karne mein kamyab hue. Iss muqam se sell positions kholna munasib ho sakta hai, aur mazeed girawat ka target 140-141 range tak ho sakta hai. Dosri surat mein, agar pair 144.53 resistance ke upar rebound hota hai, toh recovery jari reh sakti hai, aur agle resistance 146.38 tak ponchne ka aim ho sakta hai. Hourly chart par ek ascending channel jhanda ki tarah nazar aa raha hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend dobara shuru ho sakta hai. Lekin H4 chart par pair ek descending channel mein hai aur uski lower boundary se bounce off hua hai. Agar price 144.49 ko tor de, toh 145.69 ka target lekar khareedari ki strategy munasib ho sakti hai USD/JPY pair ne abhi hal hi mein 143 tak girawat dekhi thi, lekin American trading session ke akhir tak 100 points ka izafa hotay hue recovery ki. Daily price chart ab ek bullish pattern dikha raha hai. Bears abhi tak price ko 144.99 ke key level ke neeche dhakelne mein nakaam rahe hain, jis se downward trend ke jari rehne par shak paida hota hai. Maujooda market ki uncertainty ko dekhte hue, ki zaroorat hai, kyun ke price kuch dinon tak is level ke aas-paas reh sakti hai. US dollar index ne ek mazboot weekly support level ko choo liya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke dollar jald hi ek corrective rebound kar sakta hai. Speaker is waqt sirf sell positions lene ka soch raha hai aur buy karne ka koi irada nahi rakhta. Currency pair ne neeche se 143.99 level ko test kiya hai aur ab 144.49 tak upar chali gayi hai, jo ek positive sign hai, aur bulls Asian trading session ke dauran price ko mazeed 49 points tak le jaa sakte hain. Maujooda price 143.43 hai, jo 141.70 ke aham support level se thoda upar hai. Yeh level unn traders ka key target ho sakta hai jo girawat par bet kar rahe hain. Kuch consolidation ke baad, pair mazeed girne ka rujhaan rakh sakta hai. Lekin Bank of Japan ke hone ke bawajood, USD/JPY ki exchange rate mein zyada girawat ki umeed nahi ki ja sakti. Woh pehle hi ishara de chuke hain ke woh yen ki qeemat mein tezi se utar chadhav par mudakhlat kar sakte hain, jo ke yen ko kamzor kar sakta hai agar yeh ziyada mazboot ho jaye. Is liye, 129 ka target haqeeqat par mabni nahi lagta

USD/JPY ke liye Trade Analysis aur Trading Tips

147.12 ke price level ki test MACD indicator ke zero line se neeche move karne aur oversold area mein kuch der tak rehte hue hui thi. Yeh dollar ko buy karne ke liye sufficient tha, anticipating its recovery. Doosri test 147.12 ne market mein correct entry point ko confirm kiya, jisse 30 points se zyada rise hua.

Pair ne channel se breakout nahi kiya, largely anticipated important statistics U.S. economy ke liye. Market ko U.S. retail sales ki report aur FOMC member Patrick T. Harker ke speech se influence ho sakta hai, jo dovish stance ke liye known hai, jo dollar ko additional challenges pose kar sakta hai agar fundamental statistics disappoint kare.

Intraday strategy ke liye, main scenario No. 1 aur No. 2 ko implement karne ka plan kar raha hoon.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Aaj, main USD/JPY ko buy karne ka plan kar raha hoon jab price 147.46 (chart par green line) par pahunch jaye, target 148.14 (chart par thicker green line) par rise karne ka. 148.14 par, main apne long positions ko close karke short positions ko opposite direction mein open karunga (30-35 points ki move ki expectation).

Scenario No. 2: Main aaj USD/JPY ko buy karne ka plan kar raha hoon agar 147.06 ke price level ki do consecutive tests hote hain jab MACD indicator oversold area mein ho.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Aaj, main USD/JPY ko sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon jab 147.06 ke level (chart par red line) ko update kiya jaye, jisse pair ki quick decline hogi. Sellers ke liye key target 146.32 level hoga, jahan main apne short positions ko close karke immediately long positions ko opposite direction mein open karunga.




Scenario No. 2: Main aaj USD/JPY ko sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon agar 147.46 ke price level ki do consecutive tests hote hain jab MACD indicator overbought area mein ho

US dollar ne week ke doran Japanese yen ke muqablay mein initially rally karne mein mushkilat ka samna kiya, aur ¥144 level ki taraf push kiya. Magar ye jaldi hi reverse ho gaya aur key support ke aas-paas ¥141 tak gir gaya. Filhal, market ek critical point par nazar aa rahi hai, jahan potential recovery ya further decline ka khauf bana hua hai. Federal Reserve se interest rates cut ki ummeed hai, jabke Bank of Japan ki limited ability hai rates ko raise karne ki due to its huge debt load. Japan ki financial situation ko higher interest rates par apni debt service karna mushkil bana raha hai, jo ke monetary policy ki flexibility ko limit karta hai.

Is waqt, United States se inflation data expected se zyada garam aayi hai, jo ke US dollar ki recovery ko support kar sakti hai. Lekin agar market ¥140 level se kafi niche gir jati hai, to ye ek zyada significant decline trigger kar sakti hai. Halanki markets oversold hain, ye zaroori hai ke market oversold conditions mein bhi gir sakti hai, isliye caution zaroori hai.

Dusri taraf, agar market weekly candle ke upar break kar leti hai, around ¥144 level, to hum dollar ke yen ke muqablay mein upar push hone ke naye buying interest dekh sakte hain. Jabke ye scenario asaani se nahi ho sakta, investors ko ye possibility yaad rakhni chahiye. Overall, market ka direction key factors jaise rate decisions aur inflation trends par depend karega jo aane wale dino mein play out honge. Situation volatile hai aur traders ko kisi bhi bade shifts in sentiment ya economic data se wary rehna chahiye.

USD/JPY pair mein aik tezi se girawat dekhne ko mili, jo ke 145.00 ke qareeb pohanch gayi. Ye girawat Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke hawkish statement ki wajah se hui. Ueda ne dobara ye baat ki ke BOJ ko iss martaba mazeed interest rates barhane ki zaroorat hai, aur central bank koi dair nahi karega agar mehashi aur inflation ke halaat umeed ke mutabiq rahe. Is bayaan ne Japanese yen ko mazbooti di, jis se USD/JPY pair par selling ka pressure aya. Likha jaane ke waqt, ye 144.80 ke support level ke qareeb stable hai.

Is ke bawajood ke US dollar mazboot hai, jo ke US Dollar Index (DXY) ke do hafton ke high 102.00 tak pohanchne se zahir hota hai, USD/JPY pair abhi bhi pressure mein hai. US dollar is liye barh raha hai kyunke investors aglay US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data ke intezar mein conservative approach ikhtiyar kar rahe hain, jo ke Friday ko aayega. Ye mehashi data intehai ahem hai, kyunke Federal Reserve ab zyada focus labor market ke neechey jhukan se mutaliq risk management par kar raha hai, aur is baat ka yaqeen hai ke inflation 2% ke target par wapas aa rahi hai.

Tokyo ke consumer price indicator (CPI), jo ke taazah khorak ke ilawa ke liye hoti hai, August mein umeed se tez barh kar 2.4 tak pohanch gayi, jo ke Bank of Japan ke hawkish stance ko support karti hai. Stock trading mein, U.S. stock indexes ne tez girawat dekhi, khaaskar technology stocks mein. Reports ke mutabiq, U.S. stocks Tuesday ko tezi se neeche gire, jo ke August 5 ke baad ka sab se bura din tha, is ka sabab mehashi concerns aur technology stocks mein major sell-off tha. Natija tor par, S&P 500 mein 2.1% ki girawat hui, Nasdaq jo technology-heavy hai, 3.1% gira, aur Dow Jones ne 625 points kho diye.

USD/JPY pair ka analysis karte huye, main is pair ko follow karne se thora door ho gaya tha. Girawat ahista ahista jari hai. Din ke andar koi upward correction nahi hui, aur price ne apna minimum tor diya, jo ke internal pattern ko break karta hai. Girawat ab support level tak chalay gi. Mere pas weekly Fibonacci retracement 38.2% level pe neeche hai. Ye wazeh hai ke sellers ke liye neeche jana mushkil ho raha hai, magar unhe apna target mukammal karna hoga taa ke wo agle marahil mein turn around kar sakein. Halat abhi bearish hain, magar agar buyers USD/JPY ko support se door le jaane mein kamyab ho jate hain, to main 14.6% ki growth ki prediction karta hoon. Baki currency pairs ke liye mere paas US dollar ke girne ki forecast hai, magar yahaan mujhe growth ki umeed lag rahi hai, jo mujhe thoda confuse kar rahi hai.

USD/JPY ka technical analysis karte waqt Extended Regression StopAndReverse indicator kay signals ka istemal kiya gaya hai. Mazeed confirmation kay liye, maine RSI (14) aur MACD oscillator ka sahara liya hai, jo standard settings par hain. Trade open karne ka sab se important shart ye hai kay teeno indicators ka signal ek dosray se match karein, warna signal ko ignore kar diya jata hai. Position exit karne ke liye hum Fibonacci levels ko focus karte hain, jo ke selected time frame (current ya previous din/haftay) kay extreme points par lagayi jati hain.

Market Ka Tajzia

Is waqt market mein kaafi interesting situation hai. Agar candles ko dekha jaye, to USD/JPY pair mein reversal candles ban rahi hain. Ye buyers ke liye acha signal hai. Main yeh tasleem karta hoon ke aney wale waqt mein hum upward reversal dekh sakte hain, lekin is ka pura confirmation tabhi hoga jab price 143.03 level (descending sub-wave ka base) ko break karegi. Agar ye break ho jata hai, to downward wave mukammal samjhi jayegi.

Price Ka Rawaiya

Girawat ka silsila abhi tak jari hai aur ab tak koi khaas upward correction nahi hui. Price ne apne previous minimums ko break kar liya, jisse internal pattern toot gaya. Girawat us waqt tak jari rahegi jab tak price ek mazboot support level tak nahi pahunch jata. Maine weekly chart par 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ka level note kiya hai jo ke support ka kaam kar raha hai. Sellers ko price niche lay jane mein ab thori mushkil ho rahi hai, lekin unhe apna target complete karna hoga taake market future mein turn le sake.

Haalanki market abhi tak bearish hai, lekin agar buyers price ko support level se upar uthane mein kamiyab ho gaye to halat badal sakti hai. Is surat mein, main 14.6% tak ka growth expect karta hoon. Yeh interesting hai ke jab baqi pairs ke liye meri forecast US dollar ki kamzori ki taraf hai, yahan USD/JPY ke liye growth expect kar raha hoon, jo mujhe thoda confuse kar raha hai.

Oscillator Confirmation aur Trading Plan

Meri analysis mein RSI aur Heikin Ashi indicators bhi shamil hain. Agar chart ko dekha jaye, to candles ka rang ab red ho chuka hai, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke sellers filhaal zyada taqat mein hain aur price ko neeche le ja rahe hain. Price ne upper boundary of the channel se bounce kiya hai aur ab wapas middle line ki taraf ja raha hai.

RSI oscillator bhi sell signal ko confirm karta hai, kyunke iski curve neeche ki taraf hai aur oversold zone se kaafi door hai. Is sab ko dekhte huye main yeh nateeja nikaalta hoon ke filhaal USD/JPY sell karna munafa dey sakta hai. Main apna take profit lower boundary of the channel kay paas rakhta hoon, jo ke 0.83900 ke qareeb hai.

Akhir mein, sab indicators ke combined signals ko dekh kar, main yeh decide karta hoon ke sell entry points ko dhundha jaye aur take profit ko lower boundary par set kiya jaye, jab ke support levels par buyers ki potential strength par bhi nazar rakhi jaye.

USD/JPY ka market kal sharp neeche gira aur 140.96 zone ke qareeb pohonch gaya. Yeh dikhata hai ke sellers dominate kar rahe hain aur apni value dobara hasil nahi kar sakte. Yaad rahe ke trading ka success bohot ziada depend karta hai aapki ability par ke aap kitne flexible aur adaptable hain. Jabke current market data ek acchi selling opportunity dikhata hai, traders ko hamesha alert rehna chahiye aur apni strategies ko naye maloomat ke mutabiq adjust karna chahiye. Is mein aanay walay economic events ka khayal rakhna, key indicators ko closely monitor karna jo ke potential reversals ka ishara de sakte hain, aur risk management ke liye solid practices ko follow karna shamil hai. Ek aisi practice stop losses ka istemal hai, jo ke aapko bohot ziada losses se bachata hai jab market conditions achanak se badal jati hain.
Main prefer karta hoon sell position ke saath short target 140.52 tak ka agay. USD/JPY markets bohot ziada volatile ho sakti hain, aur sentiment aksar unforeseen events jaise ke central bank announcements, monetary policy mein tabdeeliyan, ya geopolitical developments ki wajah se jaldi shift karta hai. Aise fast-paced environments mein, jo traders apni strategies ko jaldi se adjust kar lete hain, wo ziada successful hote hain, jabke jo apne original plans par rigidly stick karte hain, wo struggle kar sakte hain apni positions maintain karne mein. Isliye flexibility ek zaroori component hai successful trading ka.

Halaanke current trends sellers ke haq mein hain, lekin financial markets ki unpredictability ki wajah se trading mein ihtiyaat karna bohot zaroori hai. Volatility kisi bhi waqt, unexpected conditions ke shift hone par, aapke sab se well-considered positions ko reverse kar sakti hai. Stop losses ka implement karna aur economic developments ke baare mein well-informed rehna, capital ko protect karne ke liye bohot ahmiyat rakhta hai. Aakhir mein, trading mein success aksar market opportunities ko capitalize karne aur effective risk management

Rozana chart par, ek price peak bana jo ke monthly pivot level aur upper channel lines ke sath tha, aur uske baad price ne niche ki taraf trend karna shuru kar diya.
Is mahine, price ne white se marked triangle ke andar trading shuru ki, jo ke pichle do mahine ki price movement ke do channels ka natija hai. Pehle ek niche ki taraf trend tha, aur phir ek mahine ke liye sideway trend raha.

Aane wale dinon mein, price se ummeed hai ke lower triangle line aur monthly support level 141.63 tak pohnch jayegi, aur is area mein price ka behavior agle price direction ko determine karega.

Agar price triangle aur support level ke niche 4 ghante ke liye trading ke dauran girti aur stable hoti hai, to isse further decline ho sakti hai monthly support level 137.07 tak.

Upar ki taraf trend tabhi sambhavit hai jab price 141.63 level se support le aur current triangle ke upar 4 ghante ke liye trading kare.

Economic side par, pair price gir gaya hai kyunki Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ne hawkish guidance di hai. Ueda ne is saal Bank of Japan ke interest rates ko aur barhane ki zaroorat ko dohraaya aur kaha ke agar economic aur inflationary conditions expectations ke mutabiq hain to central bank action lene se nahi hichekega. Is comment ne Japanese yen ko majbooti di, aur USD/JPY pair par selling pressure daala. Halankeh US dollar ki strength ko US Dollar Index (DXY) ke 102.00 tak pohnchne se dekha gaya, USD/JPY pair ab bhi pressure mein hai. US dollar us waqt barh gaya jab investors ne aane wale US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data ke liye cautious stance apnaya, jo Friday ko release hone wala hai. Ye economic data zaroori hai kyunki Federal Reserve apni attention labor market ke downside risks par shift kar raha hai, aur inflation ke 2% target par wapas aane ki umeed rakhta hai.

Instrument: USDJPY. Aaj ke liye kya ummeed rakhein, is par ghoor karna zaroori hai. Filhal, situation waise nahi hai jaisa main chahta hoon. Magar aaj, maine ye faisla kiya hai ke priority upward direction hogi, jo ke important resistance level 149.14 ki taraf hogi. Main ye nahi keh sakta ke nearest weak support level tak correction nahi hogi, aur uske baad hum upar ki taraf move karenge. Agar aaj sellers zyada active hain, to northern movement ki baat nahi hogi, aur hume current situation ke mutabiq adjust karna padega.
Current forecast mein news ke silsile ko bhi madde nazar rakha gaya hai, isliye aap check kar lein ke aaj koi aisi news to nahi jo hamari currency pair ko affect kar sake. US dollar ke liye aaj kai medium events hain: Export volume (July), Import volume (July), Trade balance (July), Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) (July). Japan ke liye, ek hi event hai: Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (August). Aaj ke events calendar mein mukhtalif events hain, jinmein se kuch 3 stars ke sath mark kiye gaye hain, jo ke market mein high volatility ka ishara hai. Lekin technical aur graphical analyses ko priority di jayegi, aur ek three-star event sirf volatility ko barha sakta hai.