usd/jpy

jise traders ghore se dekh rahe hain. Agar sellers apni momentum barqarar rakhte hain aur price ko is level se neeche le jate hain, to yeh ek lambe downtrend ki shuruaat ka ishara ho sakti hai. Iske ilawa, USDJPY par yeh bearish pressure ziada economic concerns ka aks ho sakta hai. Misal ke taur par, agar U.S. dollar kamzor ho raha hai due to softer economic data ya Federal Reserve ke dovish comments ke wajah se, to yeh pair ke decline mein ek sabab ban sakta hai. Dosri taraf, Japanese yen mein mazid taqat, shayad safe-haven demand ya positive domestic economic indicators ke wajah se, is downward movement ko barhawa de sakti hai. Traders ke liye yeh tabdeeli both challenges aur opportunities paida karti hai. Jo log long positions hold kar rahe hain, unko apni strategies dobara ghore se dekhni par sakti hai, khaaskar agar pair support levels ko tor kar neeche jata hai. Wahan short sellers ke liye yeh environment mazeed girawat se faida uthane ke liye moafiq ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar bearish momentum barhti hai. Bunyadi baat yeh hogi ke dekhna hoga ke USDJPY pair 146.86 level ke ird gird kis tarah behave karta hai aur kya yeh zone reversal ka point banega ya sirf mazeed bearish action ke liye ek stepping stone banega. USDJPY pair ke recent price action se yeh zahir hota hai ke bearish sentiment mein ek shiddat aayi hai, jahan sellers ne successful push karke price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain thi, jahan candlestick pattern "Evening Star" ne diagonal support ke break hone ke baad ek tez girawat indicate ki thi, aur uske baad sellers ne kaafi arsay tak market apne control mein rakhi. Total girawat 1720 points thi, aur reference point Fibonacci level 88.2 tha, jo ek significant Moving Average (MA) se coincide kar raha tha. Maine yeh sab screen par draw kiya tha, jahan direction ruk gayi thi, aur price ne kafi upar move kiya. Mera yaqeen hai ke aane wale haftay mein hum 148.53 tak pohonch sakte hain, jo ke kam az kam 200 points ka move hoga. Main suggest karta hoon ke apne trading strategy ke mutabiq is plan ko dobara dekhein. Economic calendar mein Japan aur US dono se kaafi important news aa rahi hain, toh fundamentals bhi price action ko influence karenge USD/JPY currency pair ne upar ki taraf ek strong correction dekhi hai, lekin main filhaal in prices par sell karne mein ehtiyat mehsoos kar raha hoon. Dekhte hain agle hafta kya laata hai, kyun ke humein abhi yeh weekend guzarni hai. Main yeh nahi keh raha ke market mein kuch bhi fixed hai, lekin Middle East mein naye tensions hain, aur agar kuch hota hai, toh Monday ko market khulte hi surprises dekhne ko mil sakte hain. Lekin kisi bhi surat mein, yeh Japanese yen ko mazid strong kar sakta hai. Bearish trend abhi bhi relevant hai, aur agar Monday ko prices 147.90 mark se upar break nahi karti, toh phir market mein sell karne ke liye enter karne ka waqt ho sakta hai. Phir bhi, weekend par is idea

United States se aane wale weak data ke baad dollar gir gaya, magar yen ke muqable mein dollar phir bhi barh raha, aur New York mein 161.64 par close hua, jo ke din ka 0.1% izafa tha . Yen 161.96 tak gir gaya, jo December 1986 ke baad se sabse kam hai. United States ke data ne dikhaya ke initial unemployment claims ka number 238,000 tak barh gaya week ending June 29 tak, seasonally adjusted. Continuing unemployment claims ka number 1.858 million tak barh gaya week ending June 22 tak, seasonally adjusted, jo ke November 2021 ke end ke baad se sabse zyada hai. ADP employment report ne Wednesday ko dikhaya ke private employment mein 150,000 jobs ka izafa hua June mein (expected 160,000 tha).
Institute for Supply Management (ISM) se release hone wale US service sector report bhi weak thi, jisme data dikhata hai ke US service sector purchasing managers' index (PMI) 48.8 tak gir gaya May ke 53.8 se, jo ke chaar saalon ka sabse kam Hi. Yeh is saal doosri dafa hai ke index 50 se neechay gaya hai, jo service sector mein contraction dikhata hai. US factory orders bhi unexpectedly 0.5% gir gaye May mein, jab ke growth expected thi. Aik series of US data ke baad, US interest rate futures market ne September mein rate cut ki probability 74% tak barha di 69% se jo Tuesday late ko thi, London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) ke calculations ke mutabiq. Market bhi yeh samajhti hai ke 2024 mein do rate cuts honge. Weak data ke series ne early trading mein dollar ko thoda frustrate kiya, magar Japanese importers se bargain-hunting orders ke active influx ne yen ki depreciation ko rokna mushkil banaya. Is waqt, investors zyada concern hain ke Bank of Japan interest rates ko barha sakti hai ya nahi. Agar is hawale se koi aur radical action nahi hota, tou intervention ke bawajood, carry trades ka wave rokna mushkil hai. Magar, short term mein, overbought USD/JPY aur bhi bigad raha hai, aur hume profit-taking adjustments ke risk se bachna hoga

USD/JPY ke Bunyadi Asbaat:

Japan ke Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi ne wage increases ke mutaliq ahem tabsaray kiye. Tuesday ko, Hayashi ne elan kiya ke autumn tak part-timers aur choti businesses ke liye bhi wage hikes ki tawaqo ki ja rahi hai. Ye tawaqo mazid mazboot Shunto results aur minimum wage adjustments ke natijay mein hai. Magar, Hayashi ne apne bayan mein foreign exchange levels ko address nahi kiya. Iske ilawa, Japan ka Labor Cash Earnings data ne June ke liye average income mein aik bara 4.5% year-on-year izafa dikhaya. Ye pehle ke 2.0% aur forecasted 2.3% readings se zyada hai, jo January 1997 se sabse bara izafa hai. Ye trend Japan ke rising interest rate environment ki taraf ek shift ko zahir karta hai.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) ne bhi market sentiment ko shape karne mein aik ahem kirdar ada kiya. BoJ ke Monetary Policy Meeting ke July 30 aur 31 ko Summary of Opinions, jo Thursday ko jari hui, ne policy normalization ki taraf ishara diya. Halankeh specific timing aur pace ka zikar nahi kiya gaya, BoJ ke members ne medium-term mein at least 1% ka neutral rate hasil karne ka goal diya. Unho ne ye bhi andaza lagaya ke aik chhoti rate hike financial conditions ko zyada tighten nahi karegi.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Spot price ooper ke resistance level, jo ke 145.50 ke qareeb hai, ko challenge karne ke liye position mein hai. Agar ye is barrier ko cross karne mein nakaam rehta hai, to ye jora downward pressure mehsoos kar sakta hai, jo ke 140.25 par support levels ko target kar sakta hai, aur aakhir mein descending channel ke lower boundary jo 137.00 ke qareeb hai, tak bhi ja sakta hai.

USD/JPY iss waqt taqreeban 142.40 par trade kar raha hai. Daily chart analysis se ye zahir hota hai ke jora abhi bhi descending channel ke ooper position mein hai, jo pehle ke bearish trend ke kamzor hone ki imkaanat ko zahir karta hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) iss waqt 30 par hai, jo oversold conditions ki taraf ishara karta hai. Ye baat jora ke reversal ka signal bhi ho sakti hai, khaaskar agar aur technical indicators bhi isko support karen.

Technical Analysis of USD/JPY

Japanese yen pichle trading hafte mein mazid mazboot hui aur apne pehle ke high ko kuch had tak update kar diya. 147.45 ka barrier touch karne ke baad, price tezi se girna shuru ho gayi aur 141.88 tak pohnch gayi, jahan usne support pa liya. Magar, yeh target area tak nahi pohnch sakti. Is tarah, jo reduction ka expected scenario tha woh kuch had tak pura hua. Is waqt, price chart super trend red zone mein hai, jo sellers ka pressure dikhata hai.

Technical perspective se dekhte hue, 240-minute chart par aaj humne dekha ke pehle ka support level 145.30 clear break ho gaya hai aur simple moving averages ka negative break bhi nazar aa raha hai, jo decline ke phir se shuru hone ka indication hai aur decline ke possibility ko support karta hai. Is liye, downtrend zyada mushkil se dekhne ko milega agar trading purane broken support level (ab resistance level ban gaya hai 145.20) ke neeche barqarar rahe, initial target 142.75 ke saath. Dusri taraf, agar hourly close kam se kam 145.30 ke upar hota hai, to pair ko phir se bullish path par le aayega, jahan 146.50 aur 147.50 ke targets ho sakte hain. Chart neeche dekhein:

Current Analysis of USD/JPY

Filhaal prices gir rahi hain aur weekly lows ke qareeb pohnch rahi hain. Main resistance zone ko test kiya gaya hai aur usne pressure ko bardasht kiya hai, apni integrity ko barqarar rakha hai aur girawat ko force kiya hai, jo downside vector ki ahmiyat ko dikhata hai. Aage chalne ke liye, 144.97 ke level ke neeche consolidation zaroori hai, jo ab main resistance zone ki boundary ko cross kar raha hai. Agar is level ka retest hota hai aur uske baad reversal down hota hai, to yeh naye wave ke liye raasta saaf karega jo 138.98 aur 136.34 ke beech ke area ko target karega.

Agar resistance break hota hai aur price reversal level 147.45 ko break kar deti hai, to yeh current scenario ko cancel karne ka signal hoga.