usd/jpy

analysis ke mutabiq, breakdown zone ke andar aik technical rejection expect kiya ja raha tha jab trend line breach hui thi. Yeh event bilkul waise hi hua jaisa anticipate kiya gaya tha, aur standard logic ke mutabiq tha. Iske baad, bearish momentum ka expect tha ke woh 141.787 ke qareebi local minimum ki strength ko challenge karega aur phir 139 figure ka breakdown hoga. Lekin, yeh scenario waise unfold nahi hua. Iske bajaye, aik buyer achanak se samnay aaya, jo bearish momentum ka muqabla karte hue aik bullish correction phase start kar gaya. Yeh movement koi catastrophic situation nahi dikhata, lekin ho sakta hai sellers mazeed capital dhoond rahe hon. Filhal, main expect karta hoon ke bearish trend jaari rahega.
Technically, USD/JPY pair abhi tak bearish trend mein hai. 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) 21-day EMA ke neeche hai, aur 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 level se neeche hai, jo ke downtrend ko confirm karta hai. Yeh pair qareebi support 141.69 ke paas (jo ke saat mahinay ka low hai) dhoond sakta hai, aur agla support 140.25 par ho sakta hai. Agar upar ki taraf dekha jaye, toh pair ko resistance 9-day EMA ke paas 145.63 par face karna padega, aur phir 21-day EMA par 146.73 par. Agar yeh levels break hotay hain, toh psychological barrie



r 150.00 tak rasta khul sakta hai, aur agla resistance 154.50 par ho ga. Kal ke 147.00 ke ooper ke brief surge ke bawajood, USD/JPY pair apni momentum ko sustain nahi kar saka jab 20-day EMA ne support trend line se retreat kiya. Technical indicators, jisme RSI aur Stochastic shamil hain, aik potential reversal suggest karte hain, jabke 50- aur 200-day moving averages ke darmiyan death cross longer-term bearish trend ka ishara karta hai.

Kal ke uptick ke baad, aaj USD/JPY ne apna rukh badla, lekin abhi tak significant weakness nahi dikhayi. Jab correction extend hui, toh price 145.13 tak aa gayi, lekin yeh level tabhi critical banega agar bears is pair ko mazeed neeche push karte hain. Aaj ka downward movement support level 145.93 ko breach kar chuka hai, aur ab price ko iske neeche stable karna mushkil ho raha hai. Agar yeh hota hai, toh aik sell entry point establish ho ga jo ke pair ko aglay support level 144.73 tak lay ja sakta hai. Lekin agar bulls phir se upper hand le lete hain, toh price 145.93 ke ooper stabilize ho sakta hai, aur bullish trend continue kar sakta hai. 4-hour chart ke mutabiq, bulls abhi tak apni advance 50% resistance level 149.62 tak complete nahi kar paye, aur bears ne intervene karte hue market ko wapas bearish rukh mein lanay ki koshish ki hai. Chart dikhata hai ke price thori rebound hui hai angle 1/8 se, aur abhi angle 1/13 ke just uper rest kar rahi hai. Agar bearish movement mazeed momentum hasil karti hai, toh bears price ko neeche le jaa sakte hain, aur poora bearish cycle wapas shuru ho sakta hai.

**Tuesday Update:**
Mangalwar ko, USD ke khilaf pair ka girawat dusre din ke liye jaari raha. Traders ab bhi tanao mein hain, aur ab nazar Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke aane wale policy meeting par hai, jo shayad ek rate hike ka sabab ban sakti hai. Speculation hai ke BoJ shayad rates ko 0.1% tak das basis points se barha sakti hai aur bond purchases ko kam karne ke plans bhi reveal kar sakti hai.

**Japan ka Advisory Council BoJ ko Kamzor Yen ke Asraat Par Tawajju Dene ki Salah Deti Hai:**

Japan ka top advisory council ne sarkar aur BoJ dono se kaha hai ke kamzor Yen ke asraat ko apni policy decisions mein shamil kiya jaye. Council ne kaha ke Yen ki girawat aur barhti hui prices ke asraat ko nazar andaz nahi kiya ja sakta, khaaskar consumer behavior par. Ek recent Reuters article ke mutabiq, BoJ apni inflation strategy ko revise kar rahi hai aur higher rates ke liye tayyar hai. Lekin, is review ka turant BoJ ke inflation targets ya policy framework par koi asar hone ka imkaan kam hai.

**JPY ko Potential Support Mil Sakta Hai Jab Traders Carry Trades Ko Unwind Karain:**

Spot price ko kuch support mil sakta hai agar traders BoJ ke policy announcement se pehle apne carry trades unwind karain. Japan ke top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, ne foreign exchange (FX) volatility ke Japanese economy par adverse asraat ke bare mein chinta zahir ki hai. G20 meeting ke dauran, Kanda ne economy ke soft landing ke barhte hue imkaan ko highlight kiya aur economic conditions ko closely monitor karne aur zaroori measures implement karne ki importance ko emphasize kiya.

**H4 Chart: USD/JPY BoJ ke Moves ke Darmiyan Key Averages ke Neeche Gir Gaya:**

Pair 145.50 ke region tak gir gaya hai, Mangalwar ko 1.5% girawat ke saath aur 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke niche chala gaya. Yeh decline ek bearish trend ke baad aayi hai jisme pair is mahine ke shuru mein apne multi-decade highs se 7.6% gir gaya. Yeh girawat BoJ aur Japanese Ministry of Finance ke suspected "Interventions" ki wajah se hui hai.

Market ke aage ke developments ka intezaar hai, aur pair ko 200-day EMA, jo 148.64 par hai, ke upar push karne ke liye zyada buying pressure ki zarurat nahi hogi. Technical support level filhal 145.00 ke qareeb nazar aa raha hai, aur 2024 ke earlier lows jo 140.00 ke upar hain, shayad additional support ke taur par kaam kar sakte hain.

Spot price ne US Dollar Index (DXY) ke muqablay mein doosre din bhi girawat dekhi hai, jo zyada tar market ki speculation ke wajah se hai ke BoJ apni monetary policy ko aur tighten kar sakta hai. Iske ilawa, carry trades ki unwinding se yen ko kuch short-term relief mil raha hai. Lekin, yen ka future path abhi bhi uncertain hai kyunki market conditions evolve ho rahi hain.

**BoJ Rate Hike se JPY ko Support Milta Hai, Jabke Kamzor US Data USD/JPY ko Affect Kar Sakte Hai**

Recently, BoJ ne apni policy rate ko 16 saal ke highest level 0.25% par barhadiya hai, jo yen ko kuch support provide kar raha hai. Central bank ki yeh commitment ke agar economic conditions require karengi to rates ko aur bhi increase kiya ja sakta hai, JPY ke prospects ko mazbooti de rahi hai. Market participants ab do additional rate hikes ki ummeed kar rahe hain fiscal year ke end March 2025 tak, aur agla increase December mein hone ki umeed hai. Yeh forward-looking stance USD/JPY pair ki upside potential ko constrain kar sakta hai.

US PMI July mein gir kar 46.8 ke eight-month low par aagaya, jo ke pichle reading 48.5 aur forecasted rise 48.8 se kam hai. Iske ilawa, US Initial Jobless Claims July 26 ko khatam hui week mein 249,000 par pohnch gayi, jo pichle week ke 235,000 se zyada hai aur anticipated rise 236,000 ko bhi surpass karti hai. Yeh indicators US economy ke kuch underlying weaknesses ko reflect karte hain, jo USD/JPY ko impact kar sakte hain.

**USD/JPY: Key Resistance Levels aur Retracement Risks**

Pair ne kuch ground recover kiya hai, aur 142.00 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jabke iska low 142.07, jo January 2 ke baad ka weakest level hai, early Asian session on Friday mein dekha gaya. Agar pair 143.00 mark ko break kar leta hai, to agle resistance levels 145.89, jo ke February 1 ka low hai, aur 146.48, jo ke March 11 ka peak hai, par honge. Agar in levels ko bhi break kiya gaya, to USD/JPY pair 147.00 threshold tak pohnch sakta hai.

Lekin, current levels se retracement ka risk bhi hai, key resistance points 148.54, 145, aur 144.50 par hain—jo ke 2024 ke low se high tak ke 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels hain. Traders ko cautious rehna chahiye, kyunki bias selling rallies ki taraf shift ho sakta hai. Intra-day traders bhi US ISM services data par nazar rakhenge for further insights.

Chaliye D1 period ka chart dekhte hain - USDJPY currency pair. Pichle haftay ka zyada tar hissa sideways dekha gaya, lekin phir bhi upar gaya, jo ke American dollar ki majbooti ki khabron ki wajah se tha jo market mein general strengthening ka sabab bana. Yahan wave structure abhi bhi downward order mein build ho raha hai, aur MACD indicator lower sales zone mein hai, lekin apni signal line ke upar. 145.10 ka horizontal level ne price ko poore haftay resistance diya. Jab price iske niche thi, to decline ke continue hone ka zyada chance tha, lekin ye level abhi bhi upar ki taraf break hua, jo ke is waqt downward scenario ko side par rakh raha hai. Daily candle ne is resistance level 145.10 ke upar fix kiya, jo ke ek true breakout tha. Isse pehle growth ke attempts successful nahi rahe. Ab price growth ka high probability hai jo pichle growth wave ka maximum hai, yani 149.47 ke level tak. 154.10 ke broken level tak rollback preliminary possible hai, jo ke ab support ban gaya hai aur ek mirror ban gaya hai. Decline ka resume tabhi consider kiya jayega jab is level ke niche reverse consolidation hota hai, tab hum shayad August ka low update karne jayenge jo 140.28 aur 141.79 ke levels ke beech hoga. Is senior period ko dekhte hue, din ke chhote periods mein sirf purchases consider kiye jate hain jab growth ke formation hota hai. Growth ke haq mein ek additional signal CCI indicator ka position hai, jo lower overheating zone se nikal kar upar ki taraf directed hai. Plus, wahi indicator older weekly chart par bhi lower overheating zone se upar ja raha hai. Aam taur par, market mein doosre major pairs bhi US dollar ki strengthening ki taraf aimed hain. Aaj downward rollback hai, aur meri rai mein, price ko buy karne ke liye pakadna zaroori hai. Aaj ki khabrein jo note ki ja sakti hain: 16:45 Moscow time - US Manufacturing Business Activity Index (PMI). 17:00 - US Construction Expenditures, ISM Manufacturing Employment Index, ISM Manufacturing Business.

Main ab sabse uncha level 147.614 par focus kar raha hoon. Filhal, yeh USDJPY currency pair par buying ke liye mera main target hai. Currency pair ki price 146.649 par hai aur yeh middle level 146.152 ke upar positioned hai, to hum long positions initiate karne par ghoor kar sakte hain. Is scenario mein, pehla target partial profit-taking ke liye 146.883 level par hoga. Lekin, is waqt yeh level sirf ek aur milestone lag raha hai hamari long position ke raste mein. Ek major event ke case mein, main 146.152 level par nazar rakhta hoon. Agar significant selling pressure hoti hai to price controlled level ke niche ja sakti hai. Aise mein, sab long positions close karni hongi aur short positions par switch karna hoga. Dusre shabdon mein, 146.152 level filhal stop-loss level hai.

USD/JPY Market Analysis

Daily Timeframe

Pichle haftay ke doran, bears ne initiative bulls ko de diya, aur qeemat upar push hui, lekin bulls ne resistance dikhaya aur lambi growth develop nahi hone di. Yahan wave structure ab bhi niche ki taraf apna order bana raha hai, aur MACD indicator lower sales zone mein hai, lekin apni signal line ke upar hai. Lagta hai ke qeemat August ke current minimum ko update karne wali hai, aur isse update karne ke liye abhi bhi kaafi faasla hai, takreeban 200 points. Agar August ke current minimum ko update kiya jata hai, to MACD aur CCI indicators par ek bullish divergence ban sakta hai, ek ya dono par ek sath. Indicators ki abhi ki position ke zariye is signal ka andaza pehle se lagaya ja sakta hai. Is waqt kaam karne ka priority hai ke din ke younger periods mein sirf niche ke taraf rollbacks aur sale ke formation ke emergence par focus karein, kam se kam jab tak minimum 141.66 update nahi hota, aur uske baad dekhenge. Ab tak downward pressure kam hone ke koi nishaan nahi hain. Chuki low relatively close hai, to qeemat zyadatar isko par karne ki koshish karegi, jab tak general market movement US dollar ke haf mein nahi chali jati, jo kaafi mumkin hai. Dusri currencies US dollar ke muqablay mein aur bhi kamzor lagti hain. Har surat mein, trend ke sath kaam karna hamesha behtar hota hai, is tarah success ke chances barh jate hain, aur hamara trend daily chart aur uske neeche downward hai. Lekin, kuch ahem news bhi aane wali hain. Agar ye news US dollar ke liye favorable aati hain, to hum shayad low se bahar na jayein, halanke wo nazdeek hai. Moscow time ke mutabiq 15-30 par: US mein average hourly earnings, US ke non-agricultural sector mein employment ka change, US mein economically active population ka share, private non-agricultural sector mein employment ka change, aur US mein unemployment rate.

Aaj hafty ka akhri din hai bears ne bulls ko initiative de diya tha, jisse price upar push hui lekin bulls ne zyada lambi growth hone nahi di. Is waqt wave structure ab bhi neeche ki taraf build ho raha hai aur MACD indicator lower sales zone mein hai, lekin signal line ke upar hai. Yeh lag raha hai ke price current August ke minimum ko update karegi, aur usse update karne se pehle takreeban 200 points ka faasla hai. Agar August ke minimum ko update kiya jata hai, to bullish divergence shayad MACD aur CCI indicators par banegi, ya donon par ek sath bhi ban sakti hai. Indicators ki maujooda position se yeh signal ko pehle se predict kiya ja sakta hai.
Is waqt kaam karne ki priority chhoti timeframes par hai, aur downwards rollbacks ke dauran aur sale formations ki emergence tak hi restricted rehna chahiye, kam se kam tab tak jab tak 141.66 ka minimum update nahi hota, uske baad dekha jayega. Filhal, neeche ke pressure mein koi kamzori ke signs nahi hain. Kyunke low kareeb hai, price iske par bhi ja sakti hai, jab tak overall market ka movement US dollar ke haq mein jaaye, jo ke mumkin hai. Doosri currencies bhi lag rahi hain ke US dollar ke muqablay mein mazeed weak ho rahi hain. Hamesha trend ke sath kaam karna behtar hota hai, kyunke is tarah success ke chances barh jate hain, aur hamara trend downwards hai daily chart se neeche tak. Haan, kuch ahem news bhi aa sakti hain jo market ko impact karengi. Agar US dollar ke haq mein news achi aati hain, to low pass nahi hoga chahe wo kitna bhi kareeb kyun na ho.

15-30 Moscow time par: US ke Average hourly earnings, Non-agricultural sector mein employed persons ki tadad mein tabdeeli, US ke economically active population ki share, Private non-agricultural sector mein employed persons ki tadad mein tabdeeli, aur US ki Unemployment rate ki report release hogi.

Geopolitical tensions Middle East mein barh rahi hain, jo pair ko support de sakti hain. Itwaar ko Israeli airstrike ne do schoolon ko target kiya jisse kam az kam 30 logon ki jaan gayi, jaisa ke Reuters ne report kiya hai. Aur US Secretary of State Tony Blinken ne alert kiya hai ke Iran aur Hezbollah Monday tak Israel par strike kar sakte hain, jo Axios ke mutabiq mukhtalif sources ne bataya hai.

Ye escalating geopolitical tensions Japanese Yen ko mazeed bolster kar sakti hain. Blinken ke G7 counterparts ke sath statements se conflict ka risk barh raha hai, jo safe-haven assets jaise ke JPY ki demand ko barha sakta hai. Yeh geopolitical uncertainty USD/JPY ki dynamics ko aur bhi complex bana deti hai.

Technical Analysis and Economic Outlook

Spot price ne US Dollar Index (DXY) ke muqablay mein doosre din bhi girawat dekhi hai, largely market speculation ke wajah se ke BoJ shayad apni monetary policy ko tighten kar sakta hai. Iske ilawa, carry trades ki unwinding yen ko short-term relief de rahi hai. Lekin, yen ka future path abhi bhi uncertain hai kyunki yeh evolving market conditions ke saath deal kar raha hai.

BoJ Rate Hike JPY Ko Support Karta Hai, Jabki Weak US Data USD/JPY Ko Affect Kar Sakte Hain

Recently, BoJ ne apni policy rate ko 16 saalon ke high 0.25% tak barhane ka faisla kiya hai, jo Yen ke liye kuch support provide kar raha hai. Central bank ka yeh commitment ke economic conditions ke hisaab se rates ko aur barhaya ja sakta hai, JPY ke prospects ko strengthen kar raha hai. Market participants ab do aur rate hikes ki umeed kar rahe hain fiscal year ke March 2025 tak, aur agla increase December mein hone ki umeed hai. Yeh forward-looking stance USD/JPY pair ke upside potential ko constrain kar sakti hai.

US PMI July mein ek aath mahine ke low 46.8 tak gir gaya, jo ke pehle ke 48.5 aur forecasted rise 48.8 se kam tha. Iske ilawa, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 26 249,000 tak barh gayi, jo pichle hafte ke 235,000 aur anticipated rise 236,000 se zyada hai. Yeh indicators US economy mein underlying weaknesses ko reflect karte hain, jo USD/JPY ko affect kar sakte hain.

USD/JPY: Key Resistance Levels aur Retracement Risks Ahead

Pair ne kuch ground recover kiya hai, trading 142.00 ke aas-paas hai, jabke early Asian session on Friday mein 142.07 ka low reach kiya, jo January 2 ke baad se sabse kam level hai. Agar pair 143.00 ke mark ke upar chadha, to agle resistance levels 145.89, jo February 1 ka low hai, aur 146.48, jo March 11 ka peak hai, dekhne ko milenge. Agar yeh levels cross kiye jate hain, to USD/JPY pair 147.00 ke threshold tak pahunch sakta hai.

Technical Analysis:

Magar, current levels se retracement ka risk hai, jahan key resistance points 148.54, 145, aur 144.50 hain—yeh levels 2024 ke low se high tak ke 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ke barabar hain. Traders ko cautious rehna chahiye, kyunki bias selling rallies ki taraf shift ho sakti hai. Intra-day traders bhi US ISM services data par nazar rakhenge taake aur insights mil sakein.