usd/jpy ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

fully materialize hone se pehle, hum ek notable upward movement dekh sakte hain. Yeh potential upswing brief strengthening of US dollar se drive ho sakta hai, jo catalyst ke taur par kaam karta hai, pair ko short term mein higher push karta hai. Aisa movement traders ko yeh sochna ke liye lure kar sakta hai ki bullish momentum continue hogi, lekin market later reverse ho jayegi, anticipated decline ko lead karti hai. Yeh situation traders ke liye caution ka message deta hai, kyunki market is period mein significant volatility exhibit kar sakta hai. Upward push sharp aur sudden ho sakta hai, false signals ke conditions create karta hai, especially unke liye jo short positions mein prematurely enter karna chahte hain. Yeh essential hai ki yeh upward movement broader bearish outlook ko negate nahi karta, lekin temporary phase ho sakta hai jo short-term factors se drive hota hai, jaise US se positive economic data ya brief shift in investor sentiment towards risk assets. Is context mein, key levels to watch yeh hain ki USD/JPY pair apne upward move ke dauran kis resistance zone ko approach karta hai. Agar pair in levels ko break karne mein struggle karta hai aur exhaustion ke signs deta hai, toh yeh expected downward trend ka precursor ho sakta hai. Conversely, sustained break above in resistance levels bearish outlook ki reassessment ko require kar sakta hai, kyunki yeh stronger bullish momentum ko indicate kar sakta hai.

Unke liye jo is period mein trade karna chahte hain, trend reversal ki confirmation ke liye wait karne ka strategy prudent ho sakta hai. Yeh bearish signals ke liye look out karne ko involve kar sakta hai, jaise bearish engulfing pattern, key support levels ke below break, ya momentum indicators jaise Relative Strength Index (RSI) mein divergence. Aise signals anticipated bearish

USD/JPY currency pair is waqt mushkil mein lag rahi hai ke phir se niche jaa sake. Iss mahine ke shuru mein jab market khuli thi, tab se price SMA 60 aur 150 ke niche hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke market abhi bhi mazboot bearish condition mein hai.Weekly timeframe pe bearish candlestick ki formation dikhati hai ke bearish trend lagataar sat hafton se chal raha hai. Iss surat-e-haal se seller ko aur bhi zyada itminaan milta hai ke woh aaj raat ko market pe aur zyada dabaav dalain. Aaj ke din ki kareeb se mushahida karain to market condition abhi bhi sideways movement mein hai, jo 144.46 ke range mein hai. Mere khayaal mein yeh temporary rise hai, aur price dubara bearish trend ki taraf lautne ki zyada mumkinat hai.

MACD indicator ke histogram bar ka position abhi bhi zero level ke niche hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke market abhi bhi bearish trend mein hai. Agle chand dinon mein bhi bearish potential ka imkaan hai. Market ka mushahida karne se lagta hai ke seller ab bhi price niche ki taraf dhakelne ki koshish karenge. Aakhri do hafton ke trend ko dekhne se yeh pata chalta hai ke USD/JPY pair abhi bhi seller ki control mein hai.Abhi ke liye behtar yeh hai ke woh movements pe tawajjoh dein jo abhi bhi bearish trend ko continue karne ka potential rakhti hain. Market abhi Asian session mein hai, lekin aglay price ke baray mein yeh hi estimation hai ke price abhi bhi bearish trend ki taraf chale gi, aur price level 144.00 ko test karne ki koshish karegi. Mere nazdeek aaj raat se kal raat tak trading option SELL hi behtar hai. Seller ki dominate karne ki zyada umeed hai.

Japani yen mein Tuesday ko halka sa zaafaa dekha gaya, aur yeh abhi 144.80 ke kareeb trade kar rahi hai. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Core CPI 1.8% tak gir gaya hai. Kya Japani mehengai kam ho rahi hai? July mein do inflation indicators ne mehengai mein slowdown ko zahir kiya.
BoJ Core CPI, jo ke Bank of Japan ke liye ahmiyat rakhta hai, June ke 2.1% se gir kar 1.8% ho gaya, jo pichle teen mahino ka sab se kam level hai. Producer Price Index (PPI) se umeed thi ke yeh mahine ke aaghaz mein 3% tak pohoch jayega. Japani mehengai mein izafa ho raha tha, jo Bank of Japan ki taraf se ek aur rate hike ko support karta tha. Central bank kehte hain ke inflation 2027 tak apne 2% target ke aas paas rahegi.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ne jumma ko kaha ke woh BoJ ki normalization ki taraf move ko support karte hain, aur rate hikes ka maqsad data-driven hoga, jismein inflation, wage growth aur inflation expectations ko focus kiya jayega.

Jumma ko Tokyo Core CPI ka bhi dekhna hai, jo umeed hai ke 2.2% par qaim rahegi. Jackson Hole Symposium mein markets ke liye "mission accomplished" ho gaya hai jab Fed Chairman Jerome Powell ne signal kiya ke Fed rate cut ke liye tayyar hai. Powell ne September meeting ko rate cut ke liye shuruwati point nahi bataya, lekin markets mutmaen hain ke Fed 18 September ke meeting mein quarter point rate cut karega.

US ne 6 September ko aik key jobs report release ki, aur Goldman Sachs ne kaha ke agar jobs report dobara dovish hui to Fed 50 basis points cut kar sakta hai, jab ke strong jobs release 25 basis point move ko support karega. USD/JPY abhi 144.98 par resistance test kar raha hai. Upar ki taraf 145.42 par resistance hai, aur neeche support 144.21 aur 143.77 par hai.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Short-Term Bullishness ko Long-Term Bearish Outlook mein Navigate Karna
Is analysis mein, hum USD/JPY currency pair ki technical aspects mein ghuste hain, iski current market behavior aur potential future movements ki insights offer karte hain. Latest data ke mutabiq, USD/JPY pair mixed technical landscape mein navigate kar raha hai, short-term bullish trend ko long-term bearish outlook ke sath contrast karte hue.

*Current Price aur Moving Averages*

Analysis ke waqt, USD/JPY pair 50-day moving average (MA50) se upar trade kar raha hai lekin 200-day moving average (MA200) se neeche hai. Yeh setup short-term aur long-term trends mein divergence ko indicate karta hai. Khaskar, price MA50 se upar hone se immediate upward momentum ka suggestion hai, short-term mein bullish bias ko hint karte hue. Lekin, price MA200 se neeche hone se broader context mein bearish sentiment ko underscore karta hai, jo pair ke key resistance levels ko approach karne par phir se assert ho sakta hai.

*Trend Analysis*

USD/JPY pair ki current positioning MA50 se upar short-term strength ko reflect karta hai. Yeh suggest karta hai ki buyers currently control mein hain, price ko higher drive karte hue. Lekin, traders ko cautious rehna chahiye jab price MA200 ko approach karta hai. Historically, MA200 significant trend indicator hai; agar price is level se upar break nahi karta hai, to yeh broader downtrend ki resumption ko signal kar sakta hai, sellers ko dominance regain karne ke liye.

*Support aur Resistance Levels*

Key support aur resistance levels USD/JPY pair ki next move ko determine karne mein crucial hain:

- *Support*: Immediate support level MA50 ke qareeb hai. Agar price is level se neeche drop karta hai, to yeh short-term bullish scenario ko negate kar sakta hai aur further declines ki taraf pave kar sakta hai. Yeh support level bulls ke liye critical line of defense hai aur isko closely monitor karna zaroori hai.

- *Resistance*: Upside par, resistance 148.50 to 149.00 range mein expected hai. Agar price is levels se upar break karta hai, to yeh further buying opportunities ko signal kar sakta hai, potentially higher resistance zones ki retest ko lead karte hue. Lekin, agar price is levels se upar nahi nikalta hai, to yeh reversal ko trigger kar sakta hai, longer-term bearish outlook ko reaffirm karte hue.

*Technical Indicators*

*Relative Strength Index (RSI)* bhi key indicator hai. Agar RSI 50 se upar hai, to yeh typically bullish momentum ko confirm karta hai, further gains ke liye case ko support karte hue. Lekin, agar RSI overbought territory mein enter karta hai (70 se upar), to yeh suggest kar sakta hai ki

USD/JPY Pair ka Jaiza: Bearish Momentum Jari Hai
Sabhi forum enthusiasts ko greetings! USD/JPY pair mein neeche ki taraf ka trend jari hai. Aise significant drop ke baad, healthy pullback zaroori hai. Lekin abhi bhi neeche jaane ki gunjaishein hain. Bank of Japan ka recent rate hike yen ko mazboot kar raha hai. U.S. labor market data bhi crucial hai. Main personally is level par trade nahi kar raha, lekin agar 155.50 se upar jaaye to shorting opportunities par focus karunga.

Current Market Conditions

Bank of Japan Rate Hike: Bank of Japan ka recent interest rate increase yen ko support kar raha hai. Ye policy shift USD/JPY pair ki bearish momentum ka key factor hai.

U.S. Labor Market Data: U.S. labor market data market sentiment aur USD/JPY pair ki direction ko influence kar sakta hai.

Technical Indicators

Envelopes Indicator: Downward trend ka continuation dikha raha hai.

Momentum Indicator: Strong sell signal de raha hai.

MACD: Negative zone mein rehta hai, aur price decline ki signal de raha hai.

Standard Deviation (StdDev) Indicator: Sellers ko support kar raha hai.

Recent Trading Activity

Kal, USD/JPY pair ko early trading mein 149.77 par resistance mila. Is level ko cross nahi kar saka, aur price decline hoker 146.41 par pahunch gaya. Closing price 146.51 par hai. Ye movement bearish outlook ko mazboot kar raha hai.

Strategic Considerations

Short Positions: Main 155.50 se upar jaane par shorting opportunities par focus karunga.

Pullback Potential: Downward trend ke bawajood, pullback mumkin hai. Market conditions badalte rehne par vigilant rehna zaroori hai.

Risk Management aur Outlook

Stop-Loss Orders: Key resistance aur support levels par stop-loss orders lagan zaroori hai.

Breakeven Strategy: Position profit mein aaye to stop-loss ko breakeven par le jaane se gains protect ho sakte hain.

Position Sizing: Market volatility ko withstand karne ke liye appropriate position sizing zaroori hai.

Mid-Term Projection

Current technical setup aur market conditions ko dekhte hue, USD/JPY pair neeche ki taraf jaane ka probability hai. Bank of Japan ki interest rate policy aur U.S. labor market data pair ki direction ko shape karne mein pivotal honge.

**Fundamental Outlook of USD/JPY**

Wednesday ke din yen ne dollar ke muqable mein lagbhag apni zameen kho di. Lekin USD/JPY par giraawat ka pressure hai due to Federal Reserve (Fed) aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke mukhtalif coverage outlooks ki wajah se. Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ne lawmakers ko Friday ke din bataya ke agar central bank ke currency projections theek sabit hote hain, to aane wale dinon mein interest rates mein mazeed izafa kiya ja sakta hai. Jab ke US Treasury yields neeche aa gayin, USD/JPY ne lagbhag 145 ke aas paas se withdrawal li aur 144 se neeche gir gaya. US dollar index, jo ke ek basket mein chhay currencies ke muqable mein dollar ko measure karta hai, lagatar neeche ja raha hai. Ye 100.54 tak gir gaya, yaani 0.31% ki kami. Key transaction 143.94 par hui, jo 0.40% ki giraawat thi. Jab retailers Friday ke underlying US inflation data ka intezaar kar rahe hain, USD/JPY ka trading "relatively sideways" hai. Lekin technical factors ko dekhte hue, USD/JPY pair phir se August 5 ka low 141.69 retest kar sakta hai agar traders kuch rukawat ko safar kar lein raaste mein.

**Technical Analysis of USD/JPY**

Wednesday ko, USD/JPY lagbhag 144.20 par trade kar raha tha. Pair daily chart par declining trendline ko examine kar raha hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke bearish bias ab kam ho raha hai. Negative side par, agar pair downtrend line ke neeche rehta hai, to USD/JPY August 5 ke seven-month low 141.65 ke qareeb trade karega. Resistance ke hawalay se, yeh mumkin hai ke USD/JPY immediate barrier ko breach karay jo nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) ke aas paas hai, yani 145.23 par. Agar yeh phase break hota hai, to pair ko 154.50 retracement resistance ke qareeb areas milne chahiye. Psychological price level 143.00 hai, jo 142.00 level se aata hai, jo August ka mushkil phase hai (jaise ke pehle discuss kiya gaya 5-cycle low). Agar yeh level break hota hai, to agla endpoint wahan ho ga. Iske baraks, agar USD/JPY 144 level se upar break karta hai, to higher prices ki umeed rakhi ja sakti hai. Turning point ya Tenkan-Sen, jo 146.42 (147.00 level ko measure karte hue) par hai, wahan mazeed resistance hai.

**Japanese Yen Trading Analysis aur Tips**

Price test 144.60 par hua jab MACD indicator zero mark se kaafi neeche move kar chuka tha, jo pair ki further downward potential ko limit kar raha tha. Is wajah se maine dollar bechne ka faisla nahi kiya aur pair ke downward movement ko miss kar diya. Achhe data ke bawajood, American dollar ko zyada support nahi mila, aur pair ki decline kal ke comparison mein aj ke Asian session ke dauran purchases ke zariye poori tarah se offset ho gayi. Yeh mumkin nahi lagta ke yen Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino ke speech ki wajah se strong hui hai, isliye dollar bears European session ke dauran jaldi se catch up kar sakte hain. Intraday strategy ke liye, main zyada reliance scenarios No. 1 aur 2 par rakhunga.

**Buy Signal**

**Scenario No. 1:** Aaj, main USD/JPY ko buy karne ka plan kar raha hoon jab yeh entry point 144.69 par pahunche, jo chart par green line se plot kiya gaya hai, aur goal 145.32 tak jana hai, jo chart par thicker green line se plot kiya gaya hai. 145.32 ke area mein, main long positions ko exit karne aur opposite direction mein short positions open karne ka plan kar raha hoon, aur wahan se 30-35 pips ki movement ki ummeed hai. Hum pair ke aaj upward correction ke framework mein rise ki ummeed kar sakte hain. **Important:** Buy karne se pehle, ensure karen ke MACD indicator zero mark ke upar ho aur usse upar jana shuru kar raha ho.

**Scenario No. 2:** Main aaj USD/JPY ko buy karne ka plan bhi kar raha hoon agar 144.30 ko do consecutive tests milte hain jab MACD indicator oversold area mein ho. Yeh pair ke downward potential ko limit karega aur market ka reverse upturn ki taraf le jayega. Hum 144.69 aur 145.32 tak growth ki ummeed kar sakte hain.

**Sell Signal**

**Scenario No. 1:** Main aaj USD/JPY ko tab bechne ka plan kar raha hoon jab 144.30 level ko test kiya jaye, jo chart par red line se plot kiya gaya hai, jo pair ke rapid decline ki taraf le jayega. Sellers ke liye key target 143.76 hoga, jahan main short positions ko exit karne aur immediately opposite direction mein long positions open karne ka plan kar raha hoon, aur wahan se 20-25 pips ki movement ki ummeed hai. USD/JPY par pressure kabhi bhi wapas aa sakta hai, kyunki dollar ke bearish market gayab nahi hue hain. **Important:** Sell karne se pehle, ensure karen ke MACD indicator zero mark ke neeche ho aur decline shuru kar raha ho.

**Scenario No. 2:** Main aaj USD/JPY ko bechne ka plan bhi kar raha hoon agar 144.69 ko do consecutive tests milte hain jab MACD indicator overbought area mein ho. Yeh pair ke upward potential ko limit karega aur market ka reverse downturn ki taraf le jayega. Hum 144.30 aur 143.76 tak decline ki ummeed kar sakte hain.

USD/JPY ke liye outlook
Kal, dollar/yen ke jode ne 145.09 ki muzahmati satah ka test kiya. Halankeh, baad me, bears ne control hasil kar liya aur jodi ko niche ki taraf dhakel diya, 143.68 ki support satah par pahunch gaya. Aaj, bulls ne qimat ko wapas ooper ki taraf mor diya, aur jodi filhal 145.09 ki muzahmati satah ki taraf Shumat ki taraf badh rahi hai. Koi natijah akhaz karna jald bazi hogi, kiyunkeh yah qadam abhi mukammal nahin hua hai. Halankeh, agar qimat 145.09 muzahmati satah tak pahunch jati hai to, yah is bat ki nishandahi kar sakta hai keh sideways channel ki hadd mazbut ho rahi hain aur channel khud ban-na jari rakhe hue hai. Aise ishare mil rahe hain keh 145.09 muzahmati satah test hone se pahle hi bulls jaddo jehad kar sakte hain aur bears bahut pahle hi qabza kar sakte hain, khas taur par tab jab halki si sust rui shuru ho chuki hai. Lehaza, suratehal par gahri nazar rakhna aur tajziyah karna aham hai.

USD/JPY currency pair ke price behavior pe hamari guftagu ka markazi point abhi ke halat hain. USD/JPY currency pair ne Monday ko apni downward movement continue ki aur pehle ki trading week ke muqablay mein nayi low tak pohanch gaya. Halankeh price ne apni opening level pe wapas aaya, overall outlook wahi hai. Mujhe ab bhi ummed hai ke USD/JPY pair mein kami aayegi. Agar price resistance level 145.19 tak pohnchti hai, jo ke meri Fibonacci grid ke 99th level ke barabar hai aur last Monday ki low se milti hai, to yeh behtareen mauka hoga sell positions open karne ke liye. Is case mein, target 160th level of the Fibonacci grid, lagbhag 142.59 hoga. Bearish scenario tabhi invalidate hoga agar price 145.19 resistance ko todti hai aur uske upar stable rehti hai. Agar aisa hota hai, to buying zyada attractive aur potentially rewarding ho sakti hai. Isliye main abhi ke levels pe transactions ka soch nahi raha.

Jab ke main USD/JPY ke liye bade plans nahi bana raha, meri nazar bullish trend ki taraf hai. Aapne kaha ke market ek direction mein nahi chal sakti, lekin main general sentiment ki baat kar raha hoon. Aksar 92-94 percent retail traders ek hi direction mein position lete hain, jabke major financial players opposite direction mein move karte hain, unke stops ya margins ko capitalize karte hain. US dollar ne apni strength gain ki hai, aur USD/JPY pair 143 ke middle tak pohnch gaya hai. Main dekhna chahta hoon ke yeh 145th figure tak pohnchta hai, jahan se yeh last Friday ko gira tha. Yeh zaroori hai ke downward trend abhi bhi yen pair ke liye chal raha hai, aur aaj ke movement bhi is decline ko continue kar raha hai. Dollar ki strength gain karne ki koshish ke bawajood, pair ka ongoing decline yen ki resilience ko highlight karta hai. Abhi bhi aage ke decline ke liye kaafi jagah hai, kyunki short-lived recovery puri tarah se play out nahi hui, aur long-term targets ab bhi intact hain.

USD/JPY Qeemton Ka Jaiza
Hamari guftagu USD/JPY currency pair ki taaza qeemton ka jaiza karne par focus karti hai. USD/JPY ki current qeemat 146.58 hai. Is haftay ke shuru mein, pair ne bullish boundary ko tor diya, jis se zigzags ban gaye. Is liye, main bullish nazarie ke saath zaada comfortable hoon, short opportunities ki talash karna band kar diya hai.

Main ne do ahem levels - 145.69 aur 146.99 - ko identify kiya hai, jahan se main movement ko catch karna chahta hoon. In levels ke beech kuch consolidation dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Sirf decisive break hi mujhe position kholne ke liye majboor karega.

Agar Asian traders 146.99 ko morning mein tor dete hain aur break karte hain, to European speculators qeemat ko aur upar le jayenge. Mere primary targets 147.89 aur phir 149.99 ke upar hain.

Kya main isko kharidunga? Haan, main 147.09 se enter karoonga, 146.79 par stop ke saath. Agar 145.69 ke neeche breakdown hota hai, to yeh naye descent ki lhar ko confirm karega, aur behtareen selling point 145.49 par hoga, 145.79 par stop ke saath.

Nearest depth markers ke liye, main chart par do levels dekh raha hoon: 143.74 aur 143.09.

USD/JPY pair Treasury bond yields ke decline ke saath ground khote ja raha hai. Overall, traders ne recent market volatility ke baad settle down kar liya hai. Bank of Japan ke comments ne yen par pressure add kiya hai. Nearest support USD/JPY ke liye 145.99 aur 146.79 ke beech hai. Agar 145.99 ke neeche move hota hai, to additional downward momentum mil sakta hai.

Risk appetite ke return ke saath, USD/JPY ne apne downtrend ko resume kar diya hai. Buyers ne weekly high 147.88 ko break nahi kiya, jis se pair ko 146.99 ke neeche drop kar diya hai. Momentum abhi bhi bearish hai, lekin Relative Strength Index (RSI) oversold territory ke qareeb

Japanese Yen (JPY) ne US Dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein apni girawat ko jaari rakha, jaisa ke Bank of Japan (BOJ) ke Deputy Governor Ryozo Himeno ke hawale se dovish comments se. Himeno ke bayan ne, jo yeh sujhaate hain ke BOJ apni monetary easing policy ko tabdeel kar sakta hai agar maashi haalat behtar hoti hain, ne BOJ ke flexible stance aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ke mumkinah rate cuts ke darmiyan ke farq ko mazid barha diya. Jabke Fed ke recent comments ne monetary policy ko ease karne ki ummeed ko darshaya hai, rate cuts ke timing aur hisse abhi tak ghazab mein hain. Bazaar ke log Atlantic Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic ke taqreer aur Nvidia ke earnings report ka intezaar kar rahe hain taake Fed ke iraadon aur broader risk appetite ke baare mein mazeed clues mil sakein.

USD/JPY pair 144.00 ke level se upar trade kar raha hai, jo ke downward trend ke kam hone ka ishara hai. Lekin, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) abhi bhi 30 ke level ke thoda upar hai, jo ke downtrend ke jaari rehne ka ishara hai.

Agar USD/JPY pair downtrend line ke upar rehne mein nakam hota hai, toh yeh phir se 5 August ko record kiya gaya saat-mah ka low 141.69 par waapas aa sakta hai. Upar ki taraf, agar yeh nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) jo ke 145.23 ke qareeb hai, ko todta hai, toh yeh 154.50 ke return resistance area ki taraf move kar sakta hai. Takhlees mein, USD/JPY pair filhal ek pechida manzar-e-qabul se guzar raha hai, jo BOJ aur Fed ki mukhtalif monetary policies, maashi indicators, aur geopolitical factors se mutasir hai. Bazaar ke umeedain interest rate cuts aur risk appetite mein tabdeelon par madadgar hongi. Investors ko in developments ko nazar mein rakhte huye trading decisions lene honge. Traders ko fundamentals breakout zones ko dekhte huye market ke tabdeel hotay rahe chetna zaroori hai.

USD/JPY currency pair ne haal hi mein 144.53 ka support level tod diya hai, jo ke niche ki taraf trend ke continue hone ki ishara hai. 99 points ke girawat ke baad, pair ne upar ki taraf correction ki koshish ki, magar behtar hoga ke sell positions kholen aur 140-141 ke range ki taraf target rakhen. Agar pair 144.53 ke resistance se upar rebound karta hai, toh recovery agle resistance 146.38 ki taraf barh sakti hai. Hourly chart par ek ascending channel ka nazar aata hai jo ke downtrend ke resume hone ka ishara hai, jabke H4 chart par pair ek descending channel mein hai aur 144.49 se break hone par buying opportunity ban sakti hai, target 145.69 ke saath. Is waqt market recent low 141.70 ke breakdown ke liye tayar lagti hai.

USD/JPY pair ne haal hi mein 143 tak girawat dekhi lekin baad mein recover hote hue American trading session ke end tak 100 points ki gain ki. Daily price chart ab ek bullish pattern dikha raha hai. Bears ne 144.99 ke key level ke neeche price ko push karne mein naakam rahe hain, jo ke downward trend ke continue hone par shak utha raha hai. Current market uncertainty ko dekhte hue, cautious rehna behtar hoga, kyunki price is level ke aas-paas kuch din ke liye ruk sakti hai. US dollar index ne strong weekly support level tak pahuncha hai, jo ke dollar ke liye corrective rebound ka ishara hai. Speaker filhal sirf pair ko sell karne ke baare mein soch rahe hain aur is waqt buy karne ka plan nahi hai. Currency pair ne 143.99 level ko neeche se test kiya aur 144.49 tak aa gaya, jo ek positive sign hai, aur bulls shayad Asian trading session ke doran price ko aur 49 points upar push kar sakte hain.

Current price 143.43 hai jo ke 141.70 ke important support level ke upar hai. Yeh level traders ke liye key target ban sakta hai jo decline par bet kar rahe hain. Thodi consolidation ke baad, pair shayad aur girawat dekhe. Magar, Bank of Japan kaafi ehtiyaat se kaam karega aur significant drop ko allow nahi karega. Unhone already indicate kiya hai ke agar yen ka value sharply fluctuate karega to market mein intervene kar sakte hain, jo ke yen ko zyada mazboot hone se rokenge. Isliye, 129 ka target realistic nahi lagta, kyunki Bank of Japan 139 level ke aas-paas intervene kar sakta hai aur yen ko kamzor karne ke liye market mein bade amounts inject kar sakta hai.

Agar price 144.04 ke neeche girta hai, toh yeh 143.89 ya phir 142.59 tak descend kar sakta hai. USD/JPY abhi monthly Pivot level 153.84 (jo pehle 158.88 tha), weekly Pivot level 145.47 (jo pehle 147.64 tha), aur daily Pivot level 145.87 ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jo ke pair ke liye bearish sentiment ko show kar raha hai. Agar price 144.04 ke upar chala jata hai, toh ek northern correction aasakti hai; lekin agar yeh 144.04 ke neeche girta hai, toh bearish movement ka imkaan hai. Lagta nahi hai ke koi bara sell-off hoga. Yeh bhi shak hai ke market descending trend line ke resistance level ke qareeb chhoti fluctuations ko face karega, jo ke peak 161.758 se aa rahi hai, aur ho sakta hai ke additional patterns bhi form hon.

Naye trading week ka aaghaz bohot aham hota hai. Market ke reactions ko in critical levels par dekhna traders ko current conditions aur future trends ke mutaliq zyada wazeh tasveer dega. Jab tak in key points par koi waazeh reaction nahi aata, market direction uncertain rahegi. Isliye in levels ko closely monitor karna trading decisions lene se pehle bohot zaroori hai. In key levels ke ilawa, traders ko technical indicators aur doosri market factors ka bhi khayal rakhna chahiye. Indicators jaise ke moving averages, RSI (Relative Strength Index), aur MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) market ki strength aur momentum ko assess karne mein madadgar hote hain. In indicators ke saath, overall market sentiment aur news events bhi market movements par bara asar dalte hain. Agar market 147.200 aur 146.300 ke darmiyan range-bound rahti hai, toh traders ko breakouts aur rebounds par khayal rakhna chahiye. Yeh analysis entry aur exit points ko identify karne mein madad kar sakta hai aur potential market movements ka behtareen andaza lagane mein bhi.

### Japanese Yen Trading Analysis aur Tips

**Price Test aur MACD Indicator:** Jab price 144.60 ka test kiya, MACD indicator already zero mark se kaafi niche aa chuka tha, jisne pair ke aage ke downward potential ko limit kar diya. Is wajah se maine dollar nahi becha aur pair ke downward movement ko miss kar diya. Halankeh US se acchi data ke bawajood, American dollar ko zyada support nahi mila. Pair ki decline kal se poori tarah se offset ho gayi, aaj ke Asian session ke dauran purchases se. Aisa lagta nahi ke yen ka strengthening Bank of Japan ke Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino ke speech ki wajah se hai, isliye dollar ke bears shayad European session ke dauran jaldi se back karenge. Intraday strategy ke liye, main zyada tar scenarios No. 1 aur 2 par rely karunga.

**Buy Signal**

**Scenario No. 1:** Aaj, main USD/JPY ko 144.69 ke entry point par buy karne ka plan kar raha hoon, jo green line se chart par plot kiya gaya hai, with the goal to rise to 145.32, jo thicker green line se chart par plot kiya gaya hai. 145.32 ke area par, main long positions exit karunga aur opposite direction mein short positions open karunga, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction. Aaj pair ke upward correction ke framework mein rise karne ki ummeed hai. Important: Buy karne se pehle, ensure karna ke MACD indicator zero mark se upar hai aur us se rise karna shuru kar raha hai.

**Scenario No. 2:** Main USD/JPY ko aaj bhi buy karne ka plan kar raha hoon agar 144.30 ke do consecutive tests hon, jab MACD indicator oversold area mein hoga. Yeh pair ke downward potential ko limit karega aur market ke upward turnaround ki taraf le jayega. Hum 144.69 aur 145.32 ke opposite levels tak growth ki ummeed kar sakte hain.

**Sell Signal**

**Scenario No. 1:** Main USD/JPY ko aaj sirf tab bechne ka plan kar raha hoon jab 144.30 ka level test ho, jo pair mein tezi se decline laayega. Sellers ke liye key target 143.76 hoga, jahan main short positions exit karunga aur immediately opposite direction mein long positions open karunga, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction. USD/JPY par pressure kabhi bhi wapas aa sakta hai, kyunki dollar ke bearish market khatam nahi hue hain. Important: Sell karne se pehle, ensure karna ke MACD indicator zero mark se niche hai aur decline hona shuru kar raha hai.

**Scenario No. 2:** Main USD/JPY ko aaj bhi bechne ka plan kar raha hoon agar 144.69 ke do consecutive tests hon, jab MACD indicator overbought area mein hoga. Yeh pair ke upward potential ko limit karega aur market ke downturn ki taraf le jayega. Hum 144.30 aur 143.76 ke opposite levels tak decline ki ummeed kar sakte hain.

Currency pair mein aik bohot bara girawat dekhne ko mili hai, jo ke 1.13% se zyada gir gaya hai aur is haftay mein 2% se zyada gir chuka hai. Filhal yeh 144.21 par trade kar raha hai aur key support levels ke neeche struggle kar raha hai, jo ke aage aur zyada nuqsan ki taraf ishaara kar raha hai. Yeh downward trend market ke expectations aur uncertainty mein izafa kar raha hai.

**Monetary Policy Divergence aur Political Developments Jo USD/JPY ko Impact Kar Rahi Hain**

USD/JPY ke movement mein aik aham factor U.S. aur Japan ke darmiyan monetary policy ke outlooks ka tafawut hai. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ka yeh ummeed hai ke wo apne bond-buying program ko kam kar dega aur shayad interest rates barha sakta hai. Is ke muqabil, U.S. Federal Reserve ka lagta hai ke wo apne policy-easing cycle ki shuruat September mein karega, aur markets ki tawajjo teen interest rate cuts pe hai jo saal ke end tak ho sakte hain. Yeh divergence recently U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index ke release se aur barh gayi hai, jo ke inflationary environment mein behtari ko darshata hai aur U.S. Dollar (USD) bulls ko defensive bana raha hai.

Political backdrop ko dekhte hue, media reports ka kehna hai ke Vice President Kamala Harris ne 1,976 Democratic delegates hasil kar liye hain, jo ke unhein November ke Presidential Election ke liye presumptive nominee banata hai. Financial realm mein, JP Morgan ko yeh nahi lagta ke BoJ July ya 2024 ke throughout rate hikes karega. Unka outlook yeh hai ke Yen par bullish stance abhi premature hai, current economic indicators ko dekhte hue.

**Technical Support aur Resistance Levels for USD/JPY**

USD/JPY pair ke liye lagta hai ke yeh apne descending channel ke lower boundary ko test karega, jo ke 143.50 ke aas-paas hai, aur shayad 141.86 level tak aur gir sakta hai. Support psychological mark 141.00 par bhi mil sakta hai. Wahi, resistance 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 145.56 aur descending channel ke upper boundary ke nazdeek 146.60 par dekha gaya hai.

Pair ke bearish sentiment ko aur bhi zyada izafa hua hai jab yeh Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) ko decisively breach kar gaya, jisse prices mein kami dekhne ko mili. Yeh technical indicator aik strong bearish trend ka signal de raha hai, aur sellers momentum gain kar rahe hain. Commodity Channel Index (CCI) bhi is bearish outlook ko support karta hai, jo ke filhal oversold levels ke qareeb hai.