usd/jpy ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

jo ke filhal 146.52 par trade ho raha hai. Ye pair ek bearish rujhan ka shikaar hai, jo ke dheere dheere neeche ki taraf chal raha hai. Magar, agle dino mein market mein significant harkat ke mauqe ki tawaqqo hai, jo traderon ke liye dono, mauke aur khatron ka haseen mauka faraham kar sakta hai. Mojooda Market Ka Jaiza


1. Bearish Rujhan Ka Overview: Mojooda bearish rujhan yeh dikhata hai ke USD ke muqablay mein JPY ki qeemat mein kami aa rahi hai. Is rujhan ka sabab kuch macroeconomic factors hain, jisme monetary policies, economic indicators, aur geopolitical developments shamil hain. USD/JPY mein izafi kami aksar yeh darust karti hai ke investors JPY ka intekhab kar rahe hain, jo ke aksar uncertainties ke waqt ek safe-haven asset maana jata hai.

2. Economic Indicators: Kuch aham economic indicators USD/JPY pair ki rujhanat ko qaim karne mein ahmiyat rakkhte hain. United States ke liye GDP growth, employment data, inflation rates, aur Federal Reserve ki policies buhat ahmiyat rakhte hain. Waise hi, Japan ke economic indicators, jese ke industrial production, consumer confidence, aur Bank of Japan ki monetary policies bhi JPY ko khud pe asar karte hain.

3. Geopolitical Factors: Geopolitical tanazaat aur global economic waqiaat bhi currencies ki harkat ko asar daalti hain. Misal ke taur par, trade disputes, diplomatic relations mein tabdeeli, ya gafil geopolitical events USD/JPY pair mein bohat ziada fluktuation ka sabab ban sakte hain.
Bada Harkat ki Tawaqqo


1. Technical Analysis: Technical analysis mein tareekhi price charts aur market data ka jaiza le kar agle harkaton ki peeshgoi ki jati hai. Indicators jaise Moving Averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), aur Fibonacci retracement levels traders ko potential reversals ya continues ki taraf nishan de sakte hain. USD/JPY pair ke liye, traders support aur resistance levels, trendlines, aur patterns jaise head and shoulders ya double tops/bottoms ko nazar mein rakhenge takay wo market ki mutakhaliy harkat ki peeshgoi kar saken.

2. Fundamental Analysis: Fundamental analysis mein economic indicators, market khabron, aur financial statements ko dekh kar currency ki asli value ka andaza lagaya jata hai. USD/JPY ke liye, aane wale economic reports, interest rates mein tabdeeli, aur Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ke monetary policy ke bayanaath bohat ahmiyat rakhte hain. Kisi bhi factor mein ghaflati tabdeeli kisi bhi waqt USD/JPY ke pair mein besar harkat trigger kar sakti hai.

3. Market Sentiment: Market sentiment investors ki kisike currency pair ki taraf soch ko darust karta hai. Iska andaza trader positioning data, news sentiment analysis, aur social media trends se lagaya ja sakta hai. Ek drastic shift in sentiment, khaaskar agar woh kisi badi khabar ya economic report se hota hai, USD/JPY pair mein tez aur aham harkat ka sabab ban sakta hai.
Traderon ke liye Strategic Pehlu


1. Risk Management: Mojooda harkat ke liye, effective risk management strategies behad zaroori hain. Traders ko stop-loss orders set karne chahiye takay wo potential losses ko limit kar saken, aur position sizing techniques ka istemal karna chahiye takay wo apne exposure ko samhal saken. Investments ko diversify karna aur over-leveraging se bachna bhi aqlmani strategies hain.

2. Agahi Rehna: Taza economic khabron aur market developments se agah rehna zaroori hai. Economic calendars, financial news websites, aur market analysis reports valuable information faraham karte hain jo traders ko behtar faisle karne mein madad de sakte hain. Iske ilawa, central bank announcements aur speeches ko dekhna bhi aane wale monetary policies ka andaza lagane mein madadgar ho sakta hai.

3. Market Conditions ke Mutabiq Dhalna: Forex trading mein flexibility behad important hai. Jese jese market conditions tabdeel hoti hain, traders ko apne strategies ko accordingly adjust karne ke liye tayar rehna chahiye. Yeh chhoti term trading approach se lambi term ki taraf shift karne ya iska ulta karne ka faida ho sakta hai, jab market dynamics tabdeel hote hain.
Natija


USD/JPY currency pair, filhal 146.52 par trade ho raha hai aur ek bearish trend mein hai, agle dino mein ek aham harkat ka intizaar kar raha hai. Technical aur fundamental analysis yeh batati hai ke traders ko barhati volatility ke liye tayar rehna chahiye. Agahi rakhkar, sound risk management strategies ka istemal karke, aur adaptable rehkar, traders is izafa harkat se fay

USD/JPY: Price Movement Insights
Agar hum current USD/JPY chart ko dekhen, to pichle Friday ke movement ne 147.63 se price ko girte hue 146.61 tak pahunchate hue dikhaya. Yeh shift yeh suggest karti hai ke 147.63 ke upar price ko push karne mein zyada interest nahi hai. Agar yeh halat barqarar rahi, to jab market open hogi to bearish trend dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Agar price 147.63 ke upar rise aur consolidate karne mein nakam rehti hai, to pehla move 145.18 ke aas-paas ke accumulation zone ko target kar sakta hai. Agar price 145.18 tak pahunchti hai aur phir 145.86 tak uthane ki koshish karti hai lekin aage nahi badhti, to sharp drop ho sakti hai upper boundary of the protected zone 143.29 ki taraf. Agar yeh scenario ban jata hai, to 143.29 se significant rebound dekhne ko mil sakta hai, jo price ko 158.57 ke accumulation area tak le ja sakta hai.

Aajkal USD/JPY pair kaafi overbought hai. Yahan se selling shuru karna logical lagta hai, lekin price ab bhi barh rahi hai. Yeh situation uncertainty create karti hai ke kya course of action lena chahiye. Intra-week trading speculation par focus karte hue, jo aam tor par five trading days ke liye hota hai, USD/JPY ne is hafte 144.15 se actively shuru kiya. Sabse ucha level 147.93 tak gaya, jo 148.00 ke mark ke kareeb tha. Agar situation agle hafte bhi same rahi, to 147.01 ko break karke uske upar position banana further growth ka signal ho sakta hai, jo naye local highs tak le ja sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar price 145.38 se neeche girti hai, to target 144.15 ho sakta hai, aur shayad 143.00 tak bhi extend ho.

Yahan ek mumkin scenario hai jo aapke analysis ke base par hai:

**Scenario: USD/JPY Intra-Week Trading**

**Bullish Scenario:**
- Price 147.01 ke upar break karti hai aur uske upar position establish karti hai
- Naye local highs tak pahunchne ke targets, jo 150.00 tak ho sakta hai
- Stop-loss 145.38 ke neeche

**Bearish Scenario:**
- Price 145.38 ke neeche girti hai
- Target 144.15, aur shayad 143.00 tak bhi extend ho
- Stop-loss 147.01 ke upar

**Range-bound Scenario:**
- Price 145.38 aur 147.01 ke beech consolidate karti hai
- Clear direction nahi milti, range-bound market ke saath
- Agle move ko determine karne ke liye clear breakout ya breakdown ka wait karein


**Note:**
USD/JPY pair ka overbought condition ek potential reversal suggest karta hai, lekin price ab bhi barh rahi hai.
Yeh scenario intra-week trading speculation ke base par hai aur market conditions ke evolve hone ke sath change ho sakta hai.
Price action ko dhyan se monitor karein aur scenario ko accordingly adjust karein.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis Pichlay do dinon mein, USD/JPY currency pair ne mukhtalif ma'ashi aur geopolitical factors ki wajah se kafi zyada fluctuation dekhi. 5 August ko, yen ne saat maheenay ka sab se uncha level achieve kiya jab Japanese authorities ne currency market mein dakhla diya aur takreeban 5.53 trillion yen kharch kiye currency ko support dene ke liye. Yeh dakhla is wajah se tha ke 10-year Japanese government bond ka yield 0.8% se kam ho gaya tha, jo ke US jobs data ke kamzor hone ki wajah se tha aur aise mein Federal Reserve ke zyada aggressively interest rates cut karne ki umeed thi. Usi din, Bank of Japan ne ek ghaflati rate hike announce kiya, benchmark interest rate ko 0.25% tak barhaya aur yeh bhi signal diya ke agar ma'ashi halaat supportive rahe to wo rate hikes continue karenge. Yeh move Japan ki ma'ashi challenges ke bawajood aya, jismein declining private consumption aur contracting economy shamil hain.

Us ke muqablay mein, US ko kuch disappoint karne wale economic data mila, jismein kamzor manufacturing PMI aur economic slowdown ke concerns shamil hain. Yeh factors aur US earnings reports se kam ummeed ki wajah se, US stock futures mein girawat aayi aur USD/JPY pair par pressure badh gaya. Federal Reserve ke comments ne bhi US labor market ko protect karne ki baat ki, jo ke aggressive rate cuts ko delay kar sakti hai.

Aam tor par, hawkish stance aur Fed ke cautious approach ne USD/JPY pair ke liye ek volatile environment create kar diya hai. Investors central bank policies aur economic data ko closely monitor kar rahe hain taake future movements ko samjha ja sake, jismein US jobs report aur central banks ki monetary policy adjustments pe zyada tawajjo di ja rahi hai.

Forecast & Trading Strategy: Aaj, US dollar index acchi value par hai. Is wajah se, USD/JPY ne 146.00 ka high break kiya. Is level ko break karne ke baad, quote ne broken resistance tak girawat dekhi aur is level ko respect karte hue rebound kiya. Iska matlab hai ke US dollar Japanese yen ke muqablay mein mazid strong ho raha hai. Daily chart pe do bottoms dikhayi dete hain jo currency price ke resistance hain. Agar 146.80 ko break kiya jaye, to humein buying opportunity mil sakti hai

**USD/JPY Analysis: Key Levels, Breakouts, and Trading Signals**
USD/JPY pair ne recent mein notable price action dikhayi hai, aur pichle hafte ki trading ne kuch critical movements aur potential trading opportunities ko reveal kiya. Monday ko, pair ne decline ke saath start kiya, jo ke pichle Friday ko aayi sell signal ka response tha. Is initial downward movement ne price ko 143.477 ke support level tak le aaya, jahan market ne significant volatility dekhi.

Dilchasp baat yeh hai ke 143.477 ke support level ke around price action ne ek false breakout dikhaya. False breakouts tab hote hain jab price temporarily ek key level ko paar kar jaati hai lekin phir jaldi reverse ho jaati hai, jo breakout ko invalidate kar deta hai. Is case mein, support level ka false breakout ek buy signal trigger kiya, jo price ko 147.102 ke agle significant resistance ki taraf upar push kar raha hai.

Wednesday tak, USD/JPY pair ne is resistance level ko reach kar liya. Lekin market ne is level ke around additional false breakouts dekhe. Wednesday ko, price briefly 147.102 ke upar chali gayi phir reverse ho gayi, aur Thursday ko price ne phir se is level ko top se bottom tak break kiya, sirf reverse hone ke liye. Yeh hi pattern Friday ko bhi repeat hua, jahan ek aur false breakout bottom se top tak dekha gaya. Yeh repeated false breakouts 147.102 level ke around ek trading range banate hain jo Wednesday se Friday tak barqarar rahi.

Yeh range-bound activity significant hai kyunki yeh market ki indecision ko indicate karti hai, jahan buyers aur sellers dono control maintain nahi kar pa rahe hote. Aise periods mein, key levels aksar breach hote hain, lekin yeh breakouts hold nahi karte, jo false signals ko janam deta hai. Traders ko aise situations mein bohot ehtiyaat se kaam karna chahiye, kyunki market jaldi reverse ho sakti hai, jo potential losses ka sabab ban sakta hai agar trades ko dhang se manage na kiya jaye.

Naye hafte ke shuru hone par, Monday ko is range se ek breakout dekha gaya hai. USD/JPY pair ne ek baar phir se 147.102 level ko paar kiya hai, lekin is baar, lagta hai ke breakout zyada sustainable ho sakta hai. Latest breakout ke upar, ek naya buy signal generate hua hai, aur agla target 151.645 ke resistance level par set hai. Yeh level significant upside potential ko represent karta hai, aur agar buy signal confirm hota hai, to market is target ki taraf continue kar sakti hai.

Lekin, yeh buy signal bina conditions ke nahi hai. Yeh signal tab tak valid hai jab tak price 146.571 mark ke upar rahti hai. Agar price is level se neeche girti hai, to buy signal cancel ho jayega, jo market sentiment ke shift aur deeper correction ka indication de sakta hai.

### **Key Considerations for Traders:**

1. **False Breakouts:** Pichle hafte 147.102 ke around repeated false breakouts ko dekhte hue, key levels ke around trading mein ehtiyaat zaroori hai. False breakouts traders ko losing positions mein trap kar sakte hain agar dhang se manage nahi kiya jaye.

2. **Range Trading:** Wednesday se Friday tak ki range-bound activity suggest karti hai ke market indecision mein thi. Traders ko aise ranges ke bare mein aware rehna chahiye aur strategies use karni chahiye jo potential reversals ko account kar sakein.

3. **New Buy Signal:** 147.102 ke upar breakout ne ek naya buy signal create kiya hai jiska target 151.645 hai. Yeh ek potential trading opportunity present karta hai, lekin price action ko 146.571 level ke around monitor karna zaroori hai. Agar is point ke neeche drop hota hai, to buy signal invalidate ho jayega aur trend reversal ka indication mil sakta hai.

4. **Risk Management:** Volatility aur false signals ke potential ko dekhte hue, traders ko robust risk management strategies implement karni chahiye. Ismein key levels ke around stop-loss orders set karna aur positions ko exit karne ke liye prepare rehna shamil hai agar market unke khilaf move kare.

### **Conclusion:**

USD/JPY pair ab ek critical phase mein hai, jahan agar 147.102 ke upar breakout hold hota hai to further upside potential hai. Agla major resistance 151.645 hai jo bullish traders ke liye significant target hai. Lekin, market ke recent history ke false breakouts aur range-bound activity ko dekhte hue ehtiyaat zaroori hai. Traders ko 146.571 level ko closely monitor karna chahiye, kyunki is point ke neeche move karne se current buy signal invalidate ho sakta hai aur market ke direction mein shift ka indication mil sakta hai.



In key levels ko dhyan mein rakhte hue aur risk ko effectively manage karte hue, traders USD/JPY pair ke complex price action ko behtar navigate kar sakte hain aur potential trading opportunities ka faida utha sakte hain.

**U.S. Dollar aur Japanese Yen Ka Analysis**
U.S. dollar ne Monday ke early trading mein Japanese yen ke muqablay mein halki si behtari dikhayi, jab investors ne phir se carry trade ka faida uthane ki koshish ki. Yeh trend ek high-profile bailout ke baad aaya hai jo Bank of Japan ne diya tha, jahan unko apni recent hawkish stance ko dheela karna pada tha kyunki unki tight monetary policy ne Japanese stock market ko hilaa diya tha. Carry trading ki tez raftaar ne kai markets mein disruption aur significant volatility ka sabab bana.

Ab key question yeh hai ke Bank of Japan yen ko stabilize karne par focus karega ya ise preserve karne ki koshish karega. Jab ke Bank of Japan ki tight monetary policy yen ki madad karegi, Japan aur dusre major countries ke beech interest rate differentials ab bhi wide hain. Agla move Federal Reserve par depend karega. Agar Fed rates ko cut karne mein dheemapan dikhata hai ya cautious approach apnata hai, to is fiscal season mein dollar ko further gains dekhne ko mil sakte hain.

Long term mein, U.S. behtar position mein nazar aata hai. Dollar yen ke muqablay mein strong rahega, lekin raasta mushkil hoga. Short term mein, marketers ko aur changes ke liye prepare rehna hoga. Agar dollar 148.50 yen ke upar break karta hai, to yeh dollar ke liye strong gain indicate kar sakta hai, lekin filhal market zyada tar holding pattern mein hai, clear direction ke liye dekh raha hai aur bottom find karne ki koshish kar raha hai.



Overall, jab ke long-term outlook dono currencies ke liye positive hai, immediate future abhi bhi uncertain hai aur traders ko ehtiyaat se kaam karna chahiye aur central bank policies mein hone wale changes par nazar rakhni chahiye jo market ko affect kar sakte hainbreakouts ko dekhte hue, key levels ke around trading mein ehtiyaat zaroori hai. False breakouts traders ko losing positions mein trap kar sakte hain agar dhang se manage nahi kiya jaye.
Range Trading: Wednesday se Friday tak ki range-bound activity suggest karti hai ke market indecision mein thi. Traders ko aise ranges ke bare mein aware rehna chahiye aur strategies use karni chahiye jo potential reversals ko account kar sakein.

New Buy Signal: 147.102 ke upar breakout ne ek naya buy

Is haftay ke aaghaz mein, hum USD/JPY currency pair ke W1 chart ka tajziya karte hain. Ye accha hai ke weekends par hum is higher timeframe ko dekhen. Is weekly chart par dekhna asaan hai ke pichlay kuch hafton mein price mein kitni zyada girawat hui hai. Is girawat ke sath technical indicators bhi apna kirdar ada kar rahe hain, jismein sabse aham bearish divergence hai jo MACD indicator par nazar aati hai. Dosra indicator jo humne use kiya, wo CCI hai, jo ke upper side par bearish divergence dikhata hai lekin choti shiddat ke sath.
Is girawat ke peeche dono technical aur fundamental wajahain hain. Bank of Japan apni qoumi currency ke kamzoree se tang aa gaya tha, aur market mein billions inject karne ka bhi faida nahi hua, is liye unhon ne interest rate ko barhaya. Is se price mein ahem girawat hui. Girawat ke doran, 151.90 ka level toota, jiske baad ascending trendline bhi breach hui. Price lagbhag support level 140.25 tak pahunch gayi thi lekin kuch kam reh gayi. Uske baad price mein ek correction aayi aur broken ascending trendline ko neeche se touch kiya, jo ke ek naye leg down ka sabab ban sakti hai. Lekin CCI indicator jo ab oversold zone mein hai, wo thoda mutmaeen nahi karta. Ho sakta hai ke pullback aur gehra ho jaye jitna ke ab hai.

Ab humein H4 timeframe par dekhnay ki zaroorat hai ke price kis tarah se behave karti hai, taake ye dekh sakein ke koi indication hai ke price upar jana chah rahi hai ya neeche girne ka iraada hai. Halat thoda mubham hain, aur mujhe lagta hai ke buyers aur sellers dono ke liye barabar chances hain.

Is haftay ke aghaz mein corrective rally ke baad, price haftay ke darmiyan stuck ho gayi aur sideways movement karne lagi. Ek range aur accumulation zone ban chuki hai, jismein trade karna mohim na hoga agar aap bina sochay samjhay entries lena pasand na karte ho. Yahaan humein intizaar karna chahiye ke break out kis taraf hota hai, ya to neeche ya phir upar. Agar price resistance level 147.73 ke upar breakout karti hai, to ye buying ka entry point ban sakta hai jabke breakout ke baad price ko upar se test karne diya jaye. Is case mein target daily chart par indicate ki gayi level 151.90 ke neeche ho sakta hai. Selling ke liye, 145.60 ke support level ke neeche break down ka intezar zaroori hai, jo ke neeche se test karne ke baad selling ka entry point banega. Target pichlay haftay ke low ko dobara dekhna hoga. Aaj ke economic calendar mein koi aham news events nahi hain.

USD/JPY ki qeemat pehle upar gayi lekin phir neeche ki taraf chali gayi, jisse ek uncertainty candle bani jo thodi bearish thi. Yeh candle aakhir mein support level, jo ke 154.36 hai, ke neeche hi rahi. Iss support level ke aas paas do scenarios ho sakte hain.
Pehla scenario yeh hai ke agar qeemat 154.36 support level ke neeche reh jati hai, toh ho sakta hai ke downward movement ka silsila jaari rahe. Iss ka matlab hoga ke bearish pressure itna zyada hai ke qeemat is important level ke neeche hi rahi. Aise mein traders aur zyada selling pressure ke signs dekhenge, jo qeemat ko aur neeche le jaa sakti hai. Phir yeh lower support levels test karne tak baat pahunch sakti hai, jo ke further technical analysis se identify kiye ja sakte hain.

Doosra scenario yeh hai ke agar qeemat 154.36 support level ke upar chali jati hai aur wahan par stable rehti hai, toh upward movement ka silsila jaari rehne ki umeed hai. Iska matlab hoga ke bearish pressure temporary tha aur buyers wapas market mein aa gaye hain. Agar aisa hota hai, toh qeemat upar ki taraf barhti rahegi jab tak ke agla resistance level, jo ke 154.53 aur 155.00 ke darmiyan hai, tak nahi pahunchtai. Yeh range is liye aham hai kyun ke yeh agla barrier hai jo price ko sustain upward trend ke liye overcome karna hoga.

Agar qeemat 154.36 resistance level ke upar stable reh jati hai, toh mein intezar karunga ke qeemat apna northward movement jaari rakhe. Target 154.53 se 155.00 ka resistance range hoga. Yeh area important hai kyunki agar qeemat isse break kar jati hai, toh yeh stronger bullish trend ka signal ho sakta hai. Traders increased buying pressure ke signs dekhenge aur shayad long positions ke liye entry points dhoondhenge.

Iss range mein price action ko closely monitor karna zaroori hoga. Agar 154.53-155.00 ke aas paas hesitation ya reversal ke signs milte hain, toh iska matlab yeh hoga ke resistance mazboot hai aur qeemat phir se neeche ki taraf ja sakti hai. Aise mein traders apni positions reconsider karenge aur shayad ek possible retracement ke liye prepare honge

Summary mein, USD/JPY ke current situation mein 154.36 support level ke aas paas do key scenarios hain. Agar qeemat iss level ke neeche rehti hai, toh bearish trend jaari reh sakta hai jo further declines la sakta hai. Lekin agar qeemat iss level ke upar chali jati hai aur stable rehti hai, toh upward movement ka silsila 154.53-155.00 resistance range tak ja sakta hai. Iss critical area mein price action ko monitor karna informed trading decisions lene ke liye zaroori hoga

Hum USD/JPY currency pair ke ongoing price assessment ka mutalia kar rahe hain. Agar hum current USD/JPY chart ko dekhein, toh pichle Friday ki movement yeh dikhati hai ke price 147.63 level se gir kar accumulation zone 146.61 tak aa gayi. Yeh shift suggest karta hai ke price ko 147.63 ke upar push karne mein zyada interest nahi hai. Agar yeh situation barqarar rehti hai, toh market khulte hi ek bearish trajectory shuru ho sakti hai. Agar price 147.63 ke upar rise aur consolidate karne mein naakaam rehti hai, toh initial move shayad 145.18 ke qareeb accumulation zone ko target kare.

Agar price 145.18 tak pohonchti hai aur phir 145.86 tak wapas upar jaane ki koshish karti hai lekin aage barhne mein naakaam rehti hai, toh hum shayad 143.29 par protected zone ke upper boundary ki taraf ek sharp drop dekhne ko mile. Agar yeh scenario play out hota hai, toh 143.29 se ek significant rebound ho sakta hai jo price ko 158.57 ke qareeb ek accumulation area tak le ja sakta hai

Haal hi mein, USD/JPY pair kaafi overbought rahi hai. Yeh logical lagta hai ke selling start ki jaye, lekin price phir bhi barhti ja rahi hai. Is situation se yeh uncertainty paida hoti hai ke best course of action kya hona chahiye. Agar intra-week trading speculation par focus kiya jaye, jo aam tor par paanch trading days par mushtamil hoti hai, toh yeh samajh aata hai ke USD/JPY ne is hafta 144.15 se apni active journey start ki hai. Sabse highest level 147.93 achieve hua, jo ke 148.00 mark se thoda kam tha.

Agar next week situation aise hi rehti hai, aur 147.01 break ho jata hai (ideally ek position uske upar establish ho jati hai), toh yeh further growth ka signal de sakta hai, jo ke naye local highs tak le ja sakta hai. Iske bar'aks, decline ke signs tab samne aa sakte hain jab price 145.38 se neeche gir jaye, aur target 144.15 ho sakta hai.

Aaj mai W1 chart ke senior period ko dekhne ka mashwara deta hoon - USDJPY currency pair. Yahan par aap dekh sakte hain ke is pair ki keemat ka lagataar girna jaari hai. Mai andaza laga sakta hoon ke un sellers kaise mehsoos kar rahe hain jinhon ne drawdown ke dauran is pair ko hold karne ke liye kaafi paisa nahi tha, kyun ke intezar ke baad girawat aakhir kaar shuru hui hai. Keemat hamesha ke liye upar nahi ja sakti thi. MACD indicator ne girawat ka ishara diya tha, jismein aik bara bearish divergence bana tha, jo ke itne bara time interval mein kafi rare hota hai, yeh saal mein sirf aik baar ya isse bhi kam hota hai. Jab aakhri baar maximum update hui thi, to doosre istamal hone wale indicator CCI par bhi bearish divergence bana tha. Yeh sab phir reversal figure - ek ascending wedge - se neechay nikalne par confirm ho gaya. Uske baad, keemat ne niche girna shuru kar diya, apne raaste mein saari rukavaton ko todte hue, aur wahan par thodi dair ke liye ruk gayi. Pehle, yahan par main support level 152.16 tha, jisne thoda rebound kiya, lekin phir bhi sellers ke pressure ke neeche aa gaya. Uske baad, jaisa ke umeed thi, hum ascending support line tak pohnche, lekin usne zyada rebound nahi diya, yeh aksar US mein Friday ko aane wali kharab khabron ki wajah se hua, jisse US dollar market mein overall kamzor ho gaya. Non-agricultural employment rate umeed se kafi kharab nikla. US mein berozgari ka rate aik hi baar mein 0.2 points barh gaya. Nai haftay ki shuruaat hui aur keemat aur neeche gir gayi, bilkul bhi upar jane ki soch bhi nahi. Hum lagbhag horizontal support level 140.81 tak pohnch gaye. Bas thodi si kami reh gayi, shayad abhi bhi pass ho aur is level ka specific test ho jaye. Is ke kareeb, mai sochta hoon ke choti periods par upar enter karna consider kiya ja sakta hai taake expected upward correction ka kuch hissa liya ja sake. Aaj ke liye jo news note ki ja sakti hain: 16-45 Moscow waqt: US Services Business Activity Index, US Composite Business Activity Index (PMI) S&P Global se. 17-00: US Non-Manufacturing Employment Index (ISM), US Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (ISM), US Non-Manufacturing Price Index (ISM)

USD/JPY ka tajziyah
Kal, dollar/yen ke jode ne ek bar fir 147.30 ki support se ucchalne ki koshish ki aur 148.60 ki taraf apna izafa jari rakha, jiska buniyadi hadaf breakout ki surat me 150.30 par tha. Yah joda taqriban 148.60 ki muzahmat tak pahunch gaya, lekin is todne me nakam raha, wapas 147.30 ki support satah par laut aaya, jahan yah ruk gaya. Abhi tak koi wazeh niche ki movement nahin hai, lekin jodi bhi 150.30 ki hadaf ki taraf nahin badh sakti hai, kiyunkeh 148.60 muzahmat kafi mazbut sabit hui hai.
Maine pahle 148.60 ya 150.30 se reversal ya 147.30-148.60 ki hadd ke andar ek flat movement ki tawaqqo ki thi. Haqiqat me, jodi ab sideways me badh rahi hai. Abhi tak koi reversal nahin hua hai, lekin 148.60 ko todne me nakam hone ke bad kami ka imkan zyada hai, jis par maine kal bhi gaur kiya tha.



Jodi filhal 147.30 ki support satah se ooper hai, lekin agar kami jari rahti hai aur Jumah ko dekhi gayi nichli satah toot jati hai to, jodi ke girawat ke jari rahne ka zyada imkan hai, ibtedai taur par 148.20 tak. Iske bad, 147.30 tak pullback ho sakta hai, iske bad 142.80 tak riversal ho sakta hai. Agar 145.20 fauri taur par toot jata hai to, joda 142.80 ki support satah par fisal sakta hai aur wahin ruk sakta hai. Iske bad, ham 145.20 tak pullback aur fir 140.00 tak reversal dekh sakte hain.
Halankeh, agar Jumah ki nichli satah nahin tooti to, jodi ko 147.30 par support milne ka imkan hai, jiski wajah se 148.60 ko todne ki ek aur koshish hogi. Kamyabi ki surat me, mujhe 150.30 ki taraf izafe ki ummid hai, jisme 140.00 ki taraf ek lambe downward cycle me reversal hoga.
Mai ab bhi 147.30 support aur 148.60 muzahmat ke darmiyan ek range par gaur kar raha hun, jiska maine pahle zikar kiya hai. Agar yah Jumah ki nichli satah ya 148.60 muzahmat ko todne me nakam rahti hai to, yah jodi in satahon ke darmiyan utar-chadhaw karte hue ek hafta guzar sakti hai.

Hamari current focus USD/JPY currency pair ke price action ko evaluate karna hai. USD/JPY price apne current levels se gir sakti hai, lekin mere nazariye se, upward correction itni significant nahi rahi. Jabke price sharp gir gayi thi, iska recovery minimal raha hai. Lekin yeh mera perspective hai, aur market apna raasta khud banata hai, jo mere nazariye se milta bhi hai aur nahi bhi (is baar shayad milta hai).

Hum ek bearish trend ki anticipation kar sakte hain—isme koi shak nahi. Lekin jab agle haftay (ya shayad do ya teen hafton mein) dekha jaye, toh yeh faida mand ho sakta hai agar price 150.01 ke upar push kare aur yeh impression banaye ke upward trend continue kar sakta hai. Broader market mein, US dollar ka ek brief strengthening bhi beneficial ho sakta hai. Ek trading method jo Fibonacci grid ko use karta hai, uske mutabiq, yeh logical hoga ke price 156.65 (9%) tak badhe aur phir 132.46 (50%) tak decline kare.

Friday Analysis aur Monday ka Prediction

Friday ko pair ne kuch selling pressure ka saamna kiya. Main Monday ke movement ko predict karunga, yeh dekhte hue ke kya bearish trend continue karega ya koi alternative scenario develop ho sakta hai. Iske liye, technical analysis ko dekhna hoga aur recommendations ko review karna hoga. Moving averages selling ki taraf suggest karte hain, technical indicators strongly selling recommend karte hain, aur overall conclusion bhi selling hai. Yeh technical analysis bearish direction ki taraf indicate karta hai.

Ab, Monday ko pair ke liye koi significant news releases ko consider karte hain. Japan se mujhe koi major news nahi nazar aati, khaaskar kyunki Monday ko holiday hai. US se kuch essential news hogi, lekin abhi ke liye forecast neutral hai. In factors ko dekhte hue, humein lagbhag expect karna chahiye ke pair sideways move karega. Sales price ko support level 145.46 tak neeche push kar sakti hain, jabke buying price ko resistance level 147.91 tak upar le ja sakti hai.

USD/JPY Analysis: Key Levels, Breakouts, and Trading Signals** USD/JPY pair ne recent mein notable price action dikhayi hai, aur pichle hafte ki trading ne kuch critical movements aur potential trading opportunities ko reveal kiya. Monday ko, pair ne decline ke saath start kiya, jo ke pichle Friday ko aayi sell signal ka response tha. Is initial downward movement ne price ko 143.477 ke support level tak le aaya, jahan market ne significant volatility dekhi.

Dilchasp baat yeh hai ke 143.477 ke support level ke around price action ne ek false breakout dikhaya. False breakouts tab hote hain jab price temporarily ek key level ko paar kar jaati hai lekin phir jaldi reverse ho jaati hai, jo breakout ko invalidate kar deta hai. Is case mein, support level ka false breakout ek buy signal trigger kiya, jo price ko 147.102 ke agle significant resistance ki taraf upar push kar raha hai.

Wednesday tak, USD/JPY pair ne is resistance level ko reach kar liya. Lekin market ne is level ke around additional false breakouts dekhe. Wednesday ko, price briefly 147.102 ke upar chali gayi phir reverse ho gayi, aur Thursday ko price ne phir se is level ko top se bottom tak break kiya, sirf reverse hone ke liye. Yeh hi pattern Friday ko bhi repeat hua, jahan ek aur false breakout bottom se top tak dekha gaya. Yeh repeated false breakouts 147.102 level ke around ek trading range banate hain jo Wednesday se Friday tak barqarar rahi.

Yeh range-bound activity significant hai kyunki yeh market ki indecision ko indicate karti hai, jahan buyers aur sellers dono control maintain nahi kar pa rahe hote. Aise periods mein, key levels aksar breach hote hain, lekin yeh breakouts hold nahi karte, jo false signals ko janam deta hai. Traders ko aise situations mein bohot ehtiyaat se kaam karna chahiye, kyunki market jaldi reverse ho sakti hai, jo potential losses ka sabab ban sakta hai agar trades ko dhang se manage na kiya jaye.

Naye hafte ke shuru hone par, Monday ko is range se ek breakout dekha gaya hai. USD/JPY pair ne ek baar phir se 147.102 level ko paar kiya hai, lekin is baar, lagta hai ke breakout zyada sustainable ho sakta hai. Latest breakout ke upar, ek naya buy signal generate hua hai, aur agla target 151.645 ke resistance level par set hai. Yeh level significant upside potential ko represent karta hai, aur agar buy signal confirm hota hai, to market is target ki taraf continue kar sakti hai.

Lekin, yeh buy signal bina conditions ke nahi hai. Yeh signal tab tak valid hai jab tak price 146.571 mark ke upar rahti hai. Agar price is level se neeche girti hai, to buy signal cancel ho jayega, jo market sentiment ke shift aur deeper correction ka indication de sakta hai.

### **Key Considerations for Traders:**

1. **False Breakouts:** Pichle hafte 147.102 ke around repeated false breakouts ko dekhte hue, key levels ke around trading mein ehtiyaat zaroori hai. False breakouts traders ko losing positions mein trap kar sakte hain agar dhang se manage nahi kiya jaye.

2. **Range Trading:** Wednesday se Friday tak ki range-bound activity suggest karti hai ke market indecision mein thi. Traders ko aise ranges ke bare mein aware rehna chahiye aur strategies use karni chahiye jo potential reversals ko account kar sakein.

3. **New Buy Signal:** 147.102 ke upar breakout ne ek naya buy signal create kiya hai jiska target 151.645 hai. Yeh ek potential trading opportunity present karta hai, lekin price action ko 146.571 level ke around monitor karna zaroori hai. Agar is point ke neeche drop hota hai, to buy signal invalidate ho jayega aur trend reversal ka indication mil sakta hai.

4. **Risk Management:** Volatility aur false signals ke potential ko dekhte hue, traders ko robust risk management strategies implement karni chahiye. Ismein key levels ke around stop-loss orders set karna aur positions ko exit karne ke liye prepare rehna shamil hai agar market unke khilaf move kare.

### **Conclusion:**

USD/JPY pair ab ek critical phase mein hai, jahan agar 147.102 ke upar breakout hold hota hai to further upside potential hai. Agla major resistance 151.645 hai jo bullish traders ke liye significant target hai. Lekin, market ke recent history ke false breakouts aur range-bound activity ko dekhte hue ehtiyaat zaroori hai. Traders ko 146.571 level ko closely monitor karna chahiye, kyunki is point ke neeche move karne se current buy signal invalidate ho sakta hai aur market ke direction mein shift ka indication mil sakta hai.

USDJPY par tawajju dein, khaaskar bara time frame H4 par, to yeh saaf nazar aata hai ke is haftay woh bullish trend ko khatam karne ki koshish kar rahe hain jo ke kuch hafton se chal raha tha. Aur agar hum ab tawajju dein to kam az kam yeh nazar aata hai ke USDJPY ab EMA50 ko upar se torhne ki koshish kar raha hai, jo agar kamiyabi se torh diya jaye to yeh ek bara bullish mouqa ho sakta hai. Magar buyers ko bohat ehtiyaat se kaam lena chahiye kyunki ab USDJPY H4 mein dobara overbought position mein aa gaya hai. Chhoti timeframe H1 mein dekha jaye to lagta hai ke USDJPY kal dobara girne ka mouqa tha jab ke price EMA50 H1 ke neeche thi, magar USDJPY ki taqat ki wajah se yeh dobara uthne mein kamiyab raha aur hatta ke American session mein dobara daakhil hua. USDJPY dobara upar ki taraf chal pada aur hatta ke aaj subah tak yeh 147.7 ke resistance area ko torhne ki koshish kar raha hai, jo ke is baat ka imkaan hai ke yeh area torha jaye aur USDJPY apni bari upward movement jari rakhe.



USD/JPY currency pair indicate karte hain ke long positions ke liye ek promising scenario paida ho raha hai. Support level 161.35-161.21 pe ache se held hai, aur anticipated upward movement towards the 161.83-161.36 resistance zone ek favorable opportunity present karta hai traders ke liye. Buyers ki strength, recent price actions se evident hai aur expected weakening of the US dollar, bullish outlook ko further bolster karti hai. Jab market potential gains ke liye gear up kar rahi hai, traders ko in key levels aur trends ko closely monitor karna chahiye taake apne profit potential ko maximize kar saken. Pichle hafte ke market behavior ko analyze karte hue, yeh evident hota hai ke buyers consistently support level 161.300 ko held kar rahe hain, jo price ko further girne se rokti hai. Yeh strong support foundation potential upward movement ke liye ek solid base create kar rahi hai. Resistance level 161.47 ek critical benchmark serve karta hai, jo agar reach ho jaye, to bullish trend ki strength ko validate kar sakta hai Pichle hafte ka completion resistance level 161.73-161.46 ke aas paas ek strong indicator hai buyer strength ka. Yeh level historically ek significant resistance point act karta hai, aur price ka is level ke paas close hona suggest karta hai ke buyers control gain kar rahe hain. Yeh bullish momentum agle kuch dinon mein continue hone ki expectation hai, price ko 161.83 resistance zone ki taraf push karte hue Conversely, ek higher-than-expected rate USD ko weaken kar sakta hai, jo ke hamari strategy ka reevaluation zaroori bana deta hai. In conclusion, mein suggest karunga ke hum bullish concept follow karein. Technical aur fundamental analysis dono potential upward movement ko indicate karte hain. Market potentially 161.42 level ko reach kar sakti hai, jo positive economic data aur favorable market conditions se support hoti hai

USD/JPY Price Action
Aaj kal baat ho rahi hai USD/JPY currency pair ke price behavior ke bare mein. Main kisi cheez ka ishara nahi de raha, lekin currency market ke geopolitical issues ka zikar kar kar ke thak gaya hoon. Lekin raat bhar Middle East mein naye escalation ke signals aaye hain, aur agar kuch hota hai, to Monday ko market ka khulna is instrument ke liye surprises laa sakta hai. Lekin, har surat mein, yeh Japanese yen ko mazbooti ki taraf dhakel sakta hai. Bearish trend abhi bhi relevant hai, aur agar Monday ko quotes 147.90 ki mark se upar nahi jaati, to shayad is price se selling market me enter karna chahiye. Lekin, weekend ke baad hum is idea ko analyze karenge taake sabhi fundamental factors ko accurately consider kiya ja sake. Agar hum USD/JPY pair ke last maximum se niche ki taraf ke impulse ko 100% maan lein, to agla downward wave 133 ke aas paas expect kiya jana chahiye, jahan 138th Fibonacci level located hai.




Yahaan par hume yen ki ummeed karni chahiye upward correction ke complete hone ke baad. Breakout aur trend line ke neeche consolidation milne se grounds hain further southern zigzag banane ke. Agar hourly chart dekhein, to hume 146.30 par ek achha support level milta hai, jo last Tuesday ka high hai, aur price ne is par ek baar bounce kiya hai, aur general week bhi is level ke upar close hua. To mujhe lagta hai, agle trading week me isse long positions open karne ki koshish karni chahiye. In positions ka goal yeh hoga ke USD/JPY currency pair Fibonacci grid ke 161st level tak grow kar sake, jo lagbhag 151.70 hai. Mera maanna hai ke agle week hume 148.53 milega, ya kam se kam 200 points. Apne trading strategy ke hisaab se is plan ko double-check karna zaroori hai. Economic calendar me Japan aur USA se kai important news planned hai, isliye foundation bhi price movement ko impact karega.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis
Price ke 146.60 ke support level ki taraf move karne ki ummeed hai. Is support level ke aas paas main situation ko dhyan se dekhunga, kyunki yahan kuch surprises ho sakte hain. Jab price is support level ke neeche merge karegi, to mujhe lagta hai ke yeh local support 142.85 ya support level 141.80 ki taraf move karegi. Trade setup is support level ke paas banne ki umeed hai, jo trade ke aage ke direction ko determine karne me madad karega. Ek 'northern signal', jo potential upward price movement ko indicate karta hai, is setup me ek key factor hai. Mujhe lagta hai ke pehli baar door ke support level ko todna mushkil hai, isliye agar northern signal bana to main buy karne ka plan banauga. Agar price confidently show support level ke neeche merge karti hai, to mujhe lagta hai ke price 141.30 ke support level ya 141.00 ke local support tak move karegi.




Jab hum is support level ke paas pahunchte hain, mujhe ek trade setup banne ki ummeed hai, jo trade ke aage ke direction ko determine karne me madad karega. Jab tak northern signal ban raha hai, main confident hoon ke agar door ka support pehli baar toota, to main buy karunga. Agar price confidently show support level ke neeche merge karti hai, to mujhe lagta hai ke yeh local support 141.77 ya support level 142.10 tak move karegi. Is support level ke paas trade setup banne ki strong possibility hai, jo trade ke future direction ko determine karne me madad karega.