usd/jpy

USD/JPY ki keemat 161.95 ke qareeb pohnchi, jo Japanese yen ki kamtar keemat hai 38 saalon mein. Yeh currency pair ke faide Bank of Japan ke monetary policy ko normal karne ki shak mei aur US yields ke be-inteha izafaat ke doraan barhaye gaye hain. Yen ki girawat mein kisi bhi qisam ki kami nahi hai pichle maheenay mein, lekin is currency ke girne ke latest dor mein Japanese officials ki lughwi tanbeehat ka khaas aasar nahi dekha gaya.
Japan ke Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki ne aam taur par yeh bayan diya ke sarkar bazaron ko tawajjo se nazar andaaz kar rahi hai, lekin is mein koi wazeh tanbeeh intezam ke liye nahi thi. Suzuki ka tajziya hai ke shayad woh koi action tab tak nahi lena chahte jab tak ke naye Deputy Finance Minister for International Affairs, jo ke exchange rate policy ke zimmedar hain, 31 July ko daftar mein nahi aate. Yeh bhi ishara hosakta hai ke unki exchange rate ke liye tahammul ka level izhar karta hai. Forex currency market mein intervention ki salahiyat takhleeq hogayi hai.

Yen ke liye thora sukoon ke liye, currency doosri baray currencies ke khilaf thori taqatwar thi, jahan greenback ke qarz ke taqat ke ba-wajood yen ki kamzori thi. Haalaanki investors hilaf-aetmaad the Fed ki taraf se ke is saal do martaba US interest rates ko kam karega, lekin dollar ne early June se halki bunyadon par tezi se agay barhna shuru kiya hai, jab ke doosre central banks interest rates ko kam karne mein peechay reh gaye hain

Haal hi mein US dollar ke keemat ko taraqqi mili hai Treasury bond yields ke izafaat se, jinhe Donald Trump ke presidential election mein kamyabi ke chances barhne ke saath support mil raha hai Biden ke television debate mein kamyaabi ke baad. Trump ke presidency ko tax cut ke toor par dekha jata hai, jo ke mumkin hai ke is se pehle se zyada US ka qarza barh jaye

Ek naye qeemat ki bulandiyon ne is hafte ke shuruaati darje se barabar ho gaya hai. Is hafte, qeemat ne ek qeemat samtal mein chalne wale neelay channel se aur ek neeche ki taraf chalne wale surkhi channel se munaqid hokar trade shuru kiya tha. Neelay channel ne pichle do hafton ke qeemati harkat ko darshata hai jabki surkhi channel ne pichle hafte ki qeemati harkat ko darshata hai. Qeemat ne haftawarana pivot level 160.70 ke neeche trade kiya, jis se neelay channel, surkhi channel aur haftawarana support level 160.20 ko toorna pesh aya. Is support level ko dobara test karne ke baad, qeemat ne doosre support level 159.30 tak giravat ki. Ek qeemati had se neeche girne ke baad, qeemat mein izafa hua aur resistance levels ko toornay ke baad qeemat ne is hafte ke shuruaat ke peak ke barabar level tak pohanch gayi hai. Yeh level ab aham point hai, jo aap ki tawajjo ko talab karta hai kyun ke yeh ya to izafa ki rah par ishara karta hai ya phir neeche ki taraf lautne ka

Agar maine kaha, ke woh 160.80 se guzarte hi majboot izafa mein chale gaye. Agar correction ho, toh sirf is support level par aur phir nayi umeed. Main is haftay mein iska intezar kar raha hoon. Beshak southern trend mujhe pareshan karta hai; wazeh hai ke aise halat mein woh baghair sochein samjhe 159.61 tak ja sakte hain. Yeh wazeh hai ke USD/JPY aisa kar sakta hai, haan agar hum daily interval par nazar daalain toh neeche ki taraf trend mustaqbil mein lamba ho sakta hai. Phir bhi, mujhe andaza hai ke bullish trend is position mein mukhtasir rahe ga kyunki sellers ke liye aise muddat mein badal jaane ka tend hai. Daily timeframe par wazeh hai ke USD/JPY ke izafa ki jari rahi hai aur market is trend ke mutabiq taraqqi karay ga jab hum qeemat mein izafa ke liye naye range mein dakhil ho jaayen. Is liye main support se khareedne ki mashwarat doon ga, jab tak southern trend na aaye, ta ke market 159.61 ke north ho jaye. Is liye hum sirf yeh haqeeqat bata sakte hain ke is ke izafa mein, USD/JPY ki quotes ne pichle haftay mein ab mowjooda global maximum ko dobara update kiya hai, aur ab yeh 161.25 par darj hai. Mazeed yeh ke qeemat tayaar hai aur izafa jari rahe ga, kyun ke Japan Bank aur US Federal Reserve System ke darmiyan muddat dar mein farq ka mawad na khatam hua hai

USD/JPY pair ne kal aur zyada positive attempts kiye resistance line ko test karne ke liye jo ke image mein appear ho rahi hai, aur jo is waqt 161.563 par hai. Iske sath sath, MACD ke zariye clear negative signs bhi saamne aaye hain, jo ke bearish trend ke resume hone ke chances ko support karte hain aane wale sessions mein. 161.83-161.58 ke darmiyan bounce back ka moqa mil sakta hai jo ke next major station 161.48-161.73 ki taraf rasta kholega.
Yeh yaad rakhein ke agar 161.80-161.63 ka breach hota hai toh USD/JPY price ko upar push karega aur yeh pre-recorded high 161.93 ko near term mein reach kar sakta hai.

Kal ke trading session mein USD/JPY pair ne multiple attempts kiye resistance line ko test karne ke liye. Yeh resistance line 161.563 par mojood hai jo ke traders ke liye ek significant level hai. MACD ke indicators negative signals de rahe hain jo ke bearish trend ke resume hone ke chances ko mazid badhate hain. Iska matlab yeh hai ke agar price is level se rebound hoti hai toh yeh bearish trend dobara shuru ho sakta hai.

161.83-161.58 ke darmiyan ka level crucial hai. Is level se rebound hote hi, USD/JPY pair 161.48-161.73 ki taraf move kar sakta hai jo ke next major station hai. Yeh levels market ke liye important hain aur traders ko in levels ko closely monitor karna chahiye.

Traders ko apni trading strategies ko in key levels ke according adjust karna chahiye. Agar price 161.80-161.63 ka breach karti hai, toh yeh USD/JPY price ko upar push kar sakta hai aur pre-recorded high 161.93 ko near term mein reach kar sakta hai. Aise scenario mein, bullish trend ke chances badh jate hain aur traders ko apne positions accordingly adjust karne chahiye.

Lekin, agar price is resistance level se rebound hoti hai aur neeche girti hai, toh yeh bearish trend ke continuation ko confirm karegi. In levels ke neeche stability market ke bearish outlook ko support karegi aur agla target 161.48-161.73 ki taraf move karna ho sakta hai.


USD/JPY pair ke kal ke trading session ke analysis se yeh samajh aata hai ke market mein kaafi volatility mojood hai. MACD ke negative indicators aur resistance line par multiple attempts yeh zahir karte hain ke bearish trend ke resume hone ke chances mazid hain. Traders ko in key levels 161.83-161.58 aur 161.80-161.63 ko closely monitor karna chahiye aur apni trading strategies ko accordingly adjust karna chahiye.

Agar price 161.80-161.63 ka breach karti hai, toh pre-recorded high 161.93 ko near term mein reach karne ke chances hain. Iske bar'aks, agar price rebound hoti hai aur neeche girti hai, toh bearish trend ka continuation confirm ho sakta hai aur agla target 161.48-161.73 ko achieve karne ke chances hain. In sab factors ko madde nazar rakhtay hue, traders ko informed decisions lene chahiye aur apne positions ko accordingly manage karna chahiye.

USD/JPY pair ne guzishta Jumma ko positive trade kiya aur pivotal resistance 161.40-161.73 ko test kiya, aur abhi bhi is level ke neeche stable hai. Stochastic indicator overbought areas mein pohanch chuka hai, jabke SMA 50 negative pressure create karta rehta hai pair ke against. Hum yeh samajhte hain ke rebound ke mauqe mojood hain aur aane wale sessions mein bearish trend resume ho sakta hai.
Price ko 162.00 ka level break karne ki zaroorat hai taake hum apna agla target 161.60 ki taraf move kar sakein. Yeh bhi note karna zaroori hai ke expected decline ka continuation 161.48 aur 161.68 ke neeche stability ka mootaj hai.

Pichle Jumma ke positive trade ne traders ko yeh hope di thi ke USD/JPY pair apne resistance level ko break karne ki koshish karega. Lekin stochastic indicator ke overbought areas mein pohanchne ka matlab yeh hai ke pair mein bohot zyada buying ho chuki hai aur selling pressure badhne wala hai. SMA 50 ka negative pressure bhi is pair ko neeche le jane mein madadgar ho sakta hai.

Hum yeh tasleem karte hain ke rebound ke chances ab bhi mojood hain. Agar price is resistance level ko break nahi kar pati aur neeche girti hai, toh yeh ek clear indication hoga ke bearish trend dobara shuru ho raha hai. Price ko 162.00 level break karna hoga taake trend confirm ho aur humara agla target 161.60 ko achieve kar sakein.

Lekin, agar price 161.48 aur 161.68 ke neeche stable nahi rehti, toh expected decline ka continuation mushkil ho sakta hai. In levels ke neeche stability zaroori hai taake bearish trend ko support mil sake. Iska matlab yeh hai ke traders ko in critical levels ko closely monitor karna hoga aur apni trading strategies ko accordingly adjust karna hoga. Technical analysis se hume yeh bhi pata chalta hai ke current market conditions aur indicators kafi volatile hain. Stochastic indicator ka overbought area mein hona aur SMA 50 ka negative pressure create karna, yeh dono factors is baat ki taraf ishara karte hain ke market mein selling pressure badhne wala hai. Isliye, agar price 162.00 level ko break kar le, toh yeh ek strong signal hoga ke bearish trend resume ho raha hai.

Agar price neeche girti hai aur 161.48 aur 161.68 ke neeche stable rehti hai, toh expected decline continue ho sakta hai aur humara agla target 161.60 ko achieve karne ke chances barh jate hain. Yeh levels critical hain aur traders ko apni positions ko in levels ke according manage karna chahiye. USD/JPY pair ke current trading conditions aur technical indicators ko dekhte hue, rebound aur bearish trend ke resume hone ke mauqe mojood hain. Price ko 162.00 level break karna hoga taake trend confirm ho aur agla target 161.60 ko achieve kiya ja sake. Continuation of decline requires stability below 161.48 aur 161.68, jo ke critical levels hain aur unka closely monitor karna zaroori hai.

USD/JPY pair ne pichle Friday ko positive trade kiya, 161.40-161.73 ke pivotal resistance ko test karte hue, aur is level ke neeche stable raha. Stochastic indicator overbought areas mein pahunch gaya hai, jabki SMA 50 pair par negative pressure daal raha hai. Humein lagta hai ke aane wale sessions mein rebound aur bearish trend ke wapas shuru hone ke mauke maujood hain. Hamare agle target 161.60 ki taraf trend ko confirm karne ke liye, price ko 162.00 level todna zaroori hai. Yeh bhi zaroori hai ke expected decline ki continuity ke liye stability 161.48 aur 161.68 ke neeche rahe.

Pichle Friday ke positive trade ne traders ko ummed di ke USD/JPY pair apne resistance level ko todne ki koshish karega. Lekin stochastic indicator ka overbought areas mein pahunchna matlab hai ke buying pressure zyada hai aur selling pressure badhne wala hai. SMA 50 ka negative pressure bhi pair ko neeche dhakelne mein madad kar sakta hai. Humein yeh bhi maloom hai ke rebound ke chances ab bhi hain. Agar price is resistance level ko todne mein nakam hoti hai aur neeche girti hai, to yeh bearish trend ke wapas shuru hone ka clear indication hoga. Trend ko confirm karne aur hamare agle target 161.60 ki taraf badhne ke liye price ko 162.00 level todna padega. Lekin agar price 161.48 aur 161.68 ke neeche stable nahi rehti, to expected decline ka continuation challenging ho sakta hai. Stability in levels ke neeche zaroori hai bearish trend ko support karne ke liye. Matlab traders ko in critical levels ko closely monitor karna padega aur apni trading strategies accordingly adjust karni padegi.

Technical analysis bhi dikhata hai ke current market conditions aur indicators kaafi volatile hain. Stochastic indicator ka overbought area mein hona aur SMA 50 ka negative pressure suggest karte hain ke selling pressure market mein badhne wala hai. Isliye agar price 162.00 level todti hai, to yeh ek strong signal hoga ke bearish trend wapas shuru ho raha hai. Agar price girti hai aur 161.48 aur 161.68 ke neeche stable rehti hai, to expected decline continue ho sakta hai, hamare agle target 161.60 ko achieve karne ke chances badh jate hain. Yeh levels critical hain aur traders ko accordingly apni positions manage karni chahiye.

Current trading conditions aur technical indicators ko dekhte hue USD/JPY pair mein rebound aur bearish trend ke wapas shuru hone ke mauke hain. Trend ko confirm karne aur agle target 161.60 ko achieve karne ke liye price ko 162.00 level todna zaroori hai. Decline ka continuation 161.48 aur 161.68 ke neeche stability maangta hai, jo critical levels hain jinhe closely monitor karna padega.

USD/JPY ke pair mein aik taizi dekhi gayi hai, lekin ab zahir hai ke aik naye ubhaar ka imkan hai. 155.76 par bounce ke baad, is level ke dohraye jane ki nishani hai, jo upar ki raftar ka ishara deti hai. Ye level aik ahem rukawat ka kaam karta hai, jis ki mukamal tor par tor dene ki nahi hone par simat jata hai. Analysts candlestick formations ko tawajjo se dekhte hain breakthrough ke signs ke liye, jo market sentiment ko badal sakti hain. Japan ke Wazir-e-Kharija Shunichi Suzuki ne maamooli taur par kaha ke sarkar bazaar ko tawajjo se dekh rahi hai, lekin kisi wazi tanbih ke baghair. Jab tak naye tajwez shuda Deputy Finance Minister for International Affairs, exchange rate policy ke zimmedar, 31 July ko office mein nahi a jate, Suzuki kisi action lene ka irada nahi karna chahta, ya ye bhi ho sakta hai ke uska exchange rate ke liye tolerance level hi munsalik hai. Lekin exchange rate acha nahi ho sakta.

Market dynamics, economic indicators, geopolitical events aur investors ke jazbat USD/JPY ke pair ko mutasir karte hain. Haal hi mein data releases aur central bank policies, khas tor par Fed aur Bank of Japan ke, key role hote hain. Economic conditions aur risk appetite bhi performance ko mutasir karte hain, jahan safe-haven yen demand uncertainty ke doran barh jati hai.

Technical tools jaise moving averages, RSI, aur MACD insights faraham karte hain. Haal mein ke indicators darust hein kehtay hain ke thori ehtiyat zaroori hai jab pair 155.76 resistance tak pohunch raha hai. Ye level ko torne ki koshish mein rukawat ka samna market ki complexity ko darust karti hai, jo tawajjo ki zaroorat hai. Traders economic reports aur policy announcements ke liye rukawat ke sath maujooda resistance se aage janay ke liye intezaar karte hain.

Mukhtasir tor par, USD/JPY 155.76 par aik ahem point par hai. Naqamiyon se naqal ke koshishen iski ahmiyat ko samne laati hain. Traders directional cues ke liye technical aur fundamental factors ko dekhte hain market dynamics ke darmiyan.

Sab kuchh kamzor lag raha hai kamzor news headlines ki wajah se. Lagta hai ek potential mauka aa raha hai; afsos ke saath, main theek se predict nahi kar sakta ke yeh move kab hoga, kyun ke humein pehle 157.40 ko touch karna hoga. Agar successful nahi hota, toh bulls ke liye 156.94 se upar jaana mushkil hoga, aur southerners 155.99 tak support ke liye downward wave create karenge. Iss range mein, bears ki taqat downward movement ko reinforce karegi aur southern structure ko extend karne ke liye ek aur wave banayegi. Ab lagta hai ke yeh movement north ki taraf ja raha hai kyun ke hum bullish potential mein wapas aa gaye hain USD/JPY ki girawat ke baad, jaisa hona chahiye. Lagta hai ke kam az kam do options available hain. Main ek deep correction expect kar raha tha, lekin aaj market shayad predictable hogi, aur bina kisi khaas surprise ke yeh pair 160 area ki taraf apni growth continue karegi, halaan ke main market mein enter nahi kar saka kyun ke mera focus kisi aur instrument par tha. Lekin, aap bhi current levels par market mein enter kar sakte hain. Jaise jaise hum aage barhenge, humara aim 157.77 ko reach karna hoga aur phir shayad 159.30 tak bhi ja sakte hain. 158.17 ko pair ke journey mein achieve karna pehli kamiyabi hogi, jo expected se pehle bhi ho sakti hai. Prices phir se barh sakti hain kyun ke buyers confident hain. Isliye, hum resources ko objective levels ki taraf buy karna chahte hain taake iss momentum ka faida utha sakein. 157.77 ki dip ke baad, ek upward movement mumkin hai, exchange rate increment par focus karte hue agar bullish trend continue hoti hai. USD/JPY price movements ki direction predict karna mushkil hai kyun ke market levels unpredictable hain. Challenges ke bawajood, USD/JPY movements par focus rahega. Pichle kuchh hafton mein, yeh trend barh raha hai, khaas tor par European session aur lunchtime news ke baad. European session ke end se pehle, yeh pair 154.85 ki resistance ko test kar sakti hai aur 157.77 tak bhi pohanch sakti hai

Forex trading strategy
USD/JPY
Assalam Alaikum!
Meri nazar me, 162.20 ke nishan tak ka izafa US dollar/Japanese yen ke jode ke liye hadd nahin hai. Aakhir kar, jodi filhal ek ke bad ek nayi bulandiyon ko chu rahi hai, aur bahut kuch currency ki sherah ko mutassir karne wali geopolitics par munhasar karta hai. Lehaza, agar qimat 161.87 ki muzahmati satah se ooper mustahkam hoti hai to, ek kharid signal paida hoga. Is surat me, bulls dollar/yen ke jode ko ooper dhakelna jari rakhenge. Dilchap bat yah hai keh geopolitics ka rujhanat aur market ki naqal o harkat par asar pad raha hai. Misal ke taur par, kal ki khabron ka bhi is jodi par yahi asar hua. Qimat ne mazbut raftar hasil ki, halankeh bad me yah asal satah par wapa aa gayi. Ek aisa scenario bhi hai jis me dollar/yen ki jodi ek sideways range me harkat karti rahegi, lekin yah dekhne ke liye keh aaj bulls kaisa bartaw karenge, is bat par tawajjoh markuz karna munasib hai keh woh apni khoyi hui positions dobara hasil kar payenge ya nahin.

USD/JPY market pair, jo agle hafte ke liye ek trading option banane ka plan hai. 4-hour time frame par graph ke observations ke mutabiq, market ne Monday ko 159.77 se start kiya aur 161.28 tak upar gaya. Wednesday tak, upward trend ne halki si continuation dikhai, jo ke bullish movement ke continuation ko indicate karta hai. Pehle hafte se market conditions ko dekhte hue, yeh ab bhi bullish trend ki taraf ja raha hai. Jo daily chart par nazar aa raha hai: MA100



north ko pull kar raha hai twenty degrees ke trend angle par. Indicator par yeh reading ke mutabiq mood zyada bullish hai. MA18 north ko fly kar raha hai forty degrees ke trend angle par. Yeh bohot serious angle of climb hai, jo dikhata hai ke pair par mood din bhar bullish hi rehta hai. Saare candles ek expressed bullish space mein form ho rahe hain. Saare moving averages, including the guide, local Nichimoku cloud ke upar ja rahe hain. Cloud ke bare mein kuch kehna chahunga. March se yeh bulls ke side move ho gayi hai, aur ab bhi unki madad kar rahi hai. Kisi waqt par, bears ke haq mein move karne ki koshish dekhi gayi thi Last week ki trading session ne ek bullish rally dikhai ek wider range ke sath, jo ke Saturday raat ko correction tak halki price increases tak le gayi. In observations se lagta hai ke buyers market ko control kar rahe hain. Jab journal update hua, price temporarily 160.87 par ruk gayi thi. Iss mahine, buyers ke strong influence ne prices ko bullish trend ki taraf drive kiya, pichle mahine ke lowest zone se door le jate hue. Agle hafte ke liye, mujhe lagta hai ke USD/JPY pair apna bullish trend continue karega, mumkin hai ke ek higher zone tak upar move kare
Iss hafte ka trend pattern ek uptrend indicate karta hai narrow range ke sath. Relatively modest upward rally ko dekhte hue, mumkin hai ke increase agle hafte bhi continue kare, aur prices expected hain ke uptrend maintain karengi. Subah ke candlestick ne 100-period simple moving average ke upar close kiya, jo suggest karta hai ke market trend rise kar sakta hai. Agar buyers 161.51 price zone ko surpass kar sakte hain, to bullish trend agle hafte bhi market ko

time frame par graph ke observations ke mutabiq, market ne Monday ko 159.77 se start kiya aur 161.28 tak upar gaya. Wednesday tak, upward trend ne halki si continuation dikhai, jo ke bullish movement ke continuation ko indicate karta hai. Pehle hafte se market conditions ko dekhte hue, yeh ab bhi bullish trend ki taraf ja raha hai. Jo daily chart par nazar aa raha hai: MA100 north ko pull kar raha hai twenty degrees ke trend angle par. Indicator par yeh reading ke mutabiq mood zyada bullish hai. MA18 north ko fly kar raha hai forty degrees ke trend angle par. Yeh bohot serious angle of climb hai, jo dikhata hai ke pair par mood din bhar bullish hi rehta hai. Saare candles ek expressed bullish space mein form ho rahe hain. Saare moving averages, including the guide, local Nichimoku cloud ke upar ja rahe hain. Cloud ke bare mein kuch kehna chahunga. March se yeh bulls ke side move ho gayi hai, aur ab bhi unki madad kar rahi hai. Kisi waqt par, bears ke haq mein move karne ki koshish dekhi gayi thi
Last week ki trading session ne ek bullish rally dikhai ek wider range ke sath, jo ke Saturday raat ko correction tak halki price increases tak le gayi. In observations se lagta hai ke buyers market ko control kar rahe hain. Jab journal update hua, price temporarily 160.87 par ruk gayi thi. Iss mahine, buyers ke strong influence ne prices ko bullish trend ki taraf drive kiya, pichle mahine ke lowest zone se door le jate hue. Agle hafte ke liye, mujhe lagta hai ke USD/JPY pair apna bullish trend continue karega, mumkin hai ke ek higher zone tak upar move kare
Iss hafte ka trend pattern ek uptrend indicate karta hai narrow range ke sath. Relatively modest upward rally ko dekhte hue, mumkin hai ke increase agle hafte bhi continue kare, aur prices expected hain ke uptrend maintain karengi. Subah ke candlestick ne 100-period simple moving average ke upar close kiya, jo suggest karta hai ke

جولائی 4 2024 کو امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین کی پیشن گوئی

آج تک، امریکہ میں یوم آزادی، بینک آف جاپان نے کوئی مداخلت نہیں کی ہے۔ اس سے پتہ چلتا ہے، جیسا کہ ہم نے 2 جون کے جائزے میں لکھا تھا، کہ پیر، 8 تاریخ کو کرنسی کی مداخلت ممکن ہے۔ فی الحال، قیمت، 27 جون کو 160.40 سے اوپر مستحکم ہونے کے بعد، اس سطح سے اوپر کی طرف بڑھ رہی ہے۔



مارلن آسیلیٹر نیچے کی طرف مڑ رہا ہے۔ ہم اگلے ہفتے معلوم کریں گے کہ آیا یہ ایک آنے والی مداخلت کی وارننگ کے طور پر کام کرتا ہے۔
٤- گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، قیمت اور مارلن آسیلیٹر پہلے ہی ایک چار گنا ڈائیورژن بنا چکے ہیں۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر منفی علاقے میں مسلسل کمی کر رہا ہے۔



قیمت اب 160.40 پر سپورٹ پر واپس آنے والی ہے۔ لیکن سب سے پہلے، اسے 161.06 کی سطح پر ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کی حمایت سے نمٹنے کی ضرورت ہے۔ کل کی بلندی سے اوپر کا وقفہ 163.85 تک اضافے کا مرحلہ طے کرے گا۔

تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

Technical analysis of foreign exchange pairs USD/JPY

Japanese yen ki qeemat lagbhag 162 yen per US dollar tak gir gayi hai, jo ke 1986 ke baad se apni sabse kam satar par hai, aur yeh baat bazaron ko aur ziada government intervention ke hawalay se mutmain kar rahi hai. Currency ka istehraar ahem farq ke sabab se hai jo ke Japan aur America ke beech mein interest rates mein hai, iske ilawa ek dusri martaba Donald Trump ki presidency ki unchi imkaanat hai jo ke treasury bond yields ko aur ziada barha sakti hai. US dollar ka Japanese yen ke muqable mein (USD/JPY) qeemat is waqt likhtay huay taqriban 161.50 hai.

Bank of Japan ka monetary conditions ko normalise karne mein berukhi bhi yen par bojh daal rahi hai, halankeh yeh afwahen barh rahi hain ke Bank of Japan apne agli policy meeting jo ke July ke akhir mein hai, mein interest rates ko barha sakta hai. Central bank ne yeh note kiya ke Japanese yen ki kamzori import costs ko barha rahi hai, jo ke inflationary pressures ko barha rahi hai aur household consumption ko nuksaan pohuncha rahi hai. Dosri taraf, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki ne Tuesday ko zor diya ke government currency movements par hoshiyaar hai, aur yeh bhi kaha ke foreign exchange levels ek mukhtalif factors ka complex mix ko reflect karte hain.

US Central Bank policy front par. Bank ke akhri meeting ke minutes ke mutabiq, US Federal Reserve ne federal funds target range ko 5.25%-5.50% par 2024 ke June mein saatvi dafa barabar rakha, jo ke expectations ke mutabiq tha. Policymakers yeh nahi samajhte ke interest rates ko kaatna munasib hoga jab tak ke inflation ko sustainable tor par 2% ki taraf move karte dekhne ka itminan na ho.

Is dauraan, dot plot ne yeh dikhaya ke policymakers sirf ek rate cut is saal aur char 2025 mein dekhte hain. March mein, Fed ne 2024 mein teen cuts aur 2025 mein teen cuts dekhe the. Fed ne GDP growth forecasts mein koi adjustments nahi ki, aur economy ko 2024 mein 2.1%, aur 2025 aur 2026 mein 2% barhtay dekhte hain.

Is dauraan, PCE inflation ko 2024 ke liye (2.6% vs. 2.4% March forecast) aur agle saal (2.3% vs. 2.2%) mein barha diya gaya, lekin 2026 ke liye 2% par barqarar rakha. Core PCE inflation ko bhi 2024 ke liye 2.8% (vs. 2.6%) aur 2025 ke liye 2.3% (vs. 2.2%) barha diya gaya lekin 2026 ke liye 2% par barqarar rakha. Unemployment rate ko 2024 ke liye 4% pohunchte dekha gaya, March forecast ke mutabiq, lekin yeh 2025 mein thoda barh kar 4.2% hone ka imkaan hai (vs. 4.1%).

USD/JPY forecast aaj ke liye:






Jaise ke meine pehle expect kiya tha, US dollar ke Japanese yen ke muqable mein (USD/JPY) qeemat ka aam rujhan oopar ki taraf rahega, chahe dollar ki qeemat doosri bari currencies ke muqable mein ghat bhi jaye, jab tak ke Japanese intervention forex markets mein nahi hoti exchange rate collapse ko rokne ke liye. Agar intervention hoti hai, to yeh strong selling operations ko layegi taake profits ko liya ja sake, jo ke currency pair ka direction ko chote waqt ke liye bearish kar degi. Filhal, qareebi resistance levels 161.75, 162.30, aur 163.00 hain. Yeh bhi khayal mein rakhen ke kal US jobs numbers ka elan US dollar ki performance par mazboot asar daalega.

USDJPY MARKET ANALYSIS

Wednesday, July 3 ko, United States se aane wale weak data ke baad dollar gir gaya, magar yen ke muqable mein dollar phir bhi barh raha, aur New York mein 161.64 par close hua, jo ke din ka 0.1% izafa tha. Yen 161.96 tak gir gaya, jo December 1986 ke baad se sabse kam hai. United States ke data ne dikhaya ke initial unemployment claims ka number 238,000 tak barh gaya week ending June 29 tak, seasonally adjusted. Continuing unemployment claims ka number 1.858 million tak barh gaya week ending June 22 tak, seasonally adjusted, jo ke November 2021 ke end ke baad se sabse zyada hai. ADP employment report ne Wednesday ko dikhaya ke private employment mein 150,000 jobs ka izafa hua June mein (expected 160,000 tha).

Institute for Supply Management (ISM) se release hone wale U.S. service sector report bhi weak thi, jisme data dikhata hai ke U.S. service sector purchasing managers' index (PMI) 48.8 tak gir gaya May ke 53.8 se, jo ke chaar saalon ka sabse kam hai. Yeh is saal doosri dafa hai ke index 50 se neechay gaya hai, jo service sector mein contraction dikhata hai. U.S. factory orders bhi unexpectedly 0.5% gir gaye May mein, jab ke growth expected thi. Aik series of U.S. data ke baad, U.S. interest rate futures market ne September mein rate cut ki probability 74% tak barha di 69% se jo Tuesday late ko thi, London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) ke calculations ke mutabiq. Market bhi yeh samajhti hai ke 2024 mein do rate cuts honge. Weak data ke series ne early trading mein dollar ko thoda frustrate kiya, magar Japanese importers se bargain-hunting orders ke active influx ne yen ki depreciation ko rokna mushkil banaya.

Is waqt, investors zyada concern hain ke Bank of Japan interest rates ko barha sakti hai ya nahi. Agar is hawale se koi aur radical action nahi hota, tou intervention ke bawajood, carry trades ka wave rokna mushkil hai. Magar, short term mein, overbought USD/JPY aur bhi bigad raha hai, aur hume profit-taking adjustments ke risk se bachna hoga.

USD/JPY ke pair mein aik taizi dekhi gayi hai, lekin ab zahir hai ke aik naye ubhaar ka imkan hai. 155.76 par bounce ke baad, is level ke dohraye jane ki nishani hai, jo upar ki raftar ka ishara deti hai. Ye level aik ahem rukawat ka kaam karta hai, jis ki mukamal tor par tor dene ki nahi hone par simat jata hai. Analysts candlestick formations ko tawajjo se dekhte hain breakthrough ke signs ke liye, jo market sentiment ko badal sakti hain. Japan ke Wazir-e-Kharija Shunichi Suzuki ne maamooli taur par kaha ke sarkar bazaar ko tawajjo se dekh rahi hai, lekin kisi wazi tanbih ke baghair. Jab tak naye tajwez shuda Deputy Finance Minister for International Affairs, exchange rate policy ke zimmedar, 31 July ko office mein nahi a jate, Suzuki kisi action lene ka irada nahi karna chahta, ya ye bhi ho sakta hai ke uska exchange rate ke liye tolerance level hi munsalik hai. Lekin exchange rate acha nahi ho sakta.
Market dynamics, economic indicators, geopolitical events aur investors ke jazbat USD/JPY ke pair ko mutasir karte hain. Haal hi mein data releases aur central bank policies, khas tor par Fed aur Bank of Japan ke, key role hote hain. Economic conditions aur risk appetite bhi performance ko mutasir karte hain, jahan safe-haven yen demand uncertainty ke doran barh jati hai.

Technical tools jaise moving averages, RSI, aur MACD insights faraham karte hain. Haal mein ke indicators darust hein kehtay hain ke thori ehtiyat zaroori hai jab pair 155.76 resistance tak pohunch raha hai. Ye level ko torne ki koshish mein rukawat ka samna market ki complexity ko darust karti hai, jo tawajjo ki zaroorat hai. Traders economic reports aur policy announcements ke liye rukawat ke sath maujooda resistance se aage janay ke liye intezaar karte hain.

Mukhtasir tor par, USD/JPY 155.76 par aik ahem point par hai. Naqamiyon se naqal ke koshishen iski ahmiyat ko samne laati hain. Traders directional cues ke liye technical aur fundamental factors ko dekhte hain market dynamics ke darmiyan

Analysis of USD/JPY Trading Situation:
Kal, USD/JPY jodi ne mazeed musbat koshish ki ke qoumi tanazur ke taraf pohonche, jo ke ab 161.563 ke darj zail hai. Is ke sath, MACD ke zareye waze urooj ki taraf ki taraf ki taraf negative sinyal nazar aa rahe hain, jo ke is ke aane wale darjon mein bearish trend ko jari karne ki tajweezat ko tawanaati hai. 161.83-161.58 ke darmiyan ke dabey zaraye ke waapas chakkar lagana 161.48-161.73 ke tor par satha sab se aham station ke safar ko aghaz kar sakta hai.

Yaad rakhiye ke 161.80-161.63 ke tor ke guzish ke tor par USD/JPY ke qeemat ko ooncha kar sakta hai, aam tor par behtar qeemat ke aas pass 161.93 tak pohonchane ke liye

161.83-161.58 ke darmiyan yeh level ahim hai. Agar qeemat is level se waapas chakkar lagaye, to USD/JPY jodi 161.48-161.73 ki taraf ja sakti hai, jo ke agla bara station hai. Yeh darj zail level bazaar ke liye ahim hain, aur traders ko inhein nazdeek se nigrani mein rakhna chahiye.

Tijarat ki Policy

Tijarat karne wale in ahim levelon ke mutabiq apni tijarat ki policy ko mutabiq karna chahiye. Agar qeemat 161.80-161.63 level ko tor deti hai, to is se USD/JPY ki qeemat ko ooncha kar sakta hai, behtar qeemat ke aas paas 161.93 tak pohonchne ke liye. Is tawalat mein bullish trend ke imkanat barh jaate hain, aur traders ko apni positions ko mutabiq tashkeel deni chahiye.

Lekin agar qeemat is resistance level se waapas chakkar lagaye aur gire, to is se bearish trend ke jari rahne ki tashdeed ho jayegi. In levelon ke neeche isteqlal bearish nazar andaz karne ko sport karega, aur agla target 161.48-161.73 ki taraf ho sakta hai.

Kal ke USD/JPY jodi ke tajziye se wazeh hai ke bazaar mein barra tawalat hai. MACD ke manfi indicators aur resistance line par mutalea ke baray mein mazeed koshishat is bat par ishara dete hain ke bearish trend ke jari rahne ke imkanat zyada hain. Traders ko 161.83-161.58 aur 161.80-161.63 ke in ahim levelon ko nazdeek se nigrani mein rakhna chahiye aur apni tijarat ki policy ko is ke mutabiq tashkeel deni chahiye.

Agar qeemat 161.80-161.63 level ko tor deti hai, to agle qareebi maqami urooj ke imkanat barh jaate hain. Ulta agar qeemat waapas chakkar lagaye aur gire, to is se bearish trend ke jari rahne ki tashdeed ho jayegi, aur agla target 161.48-161.73 ho sakta hai. Tamam yeh fikron ko maqami ke mutabiq gosha karna chahiye, tijarat karne wale munasib faislon ko lena chahiye.