USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Assalam-o-Alaikum dosto! Is hafte ka aakhri trading din guzr chuka hai aur is currency pair ki keemat kahin bhi asar nahi dikhayi de rahi, pooray haftay se wahi reh gayi hai. Rozana ka chart dikhata hai kaise ye currency pair 2022 aur 2023 ke buland maqam ke qareeb atka hua hai aur abhi tak isne is se aage barhne ka faisla nahi kiya. Lehar ka dhancha ab bhi oonchaai mein bana hua hai, aur MACD indicator upper buy zone mein barh raha hai aur apni signal line ke oopar hai. Is par pehle se aayi hui ahem khabarain ke asar se keemat ko asal mein kahin bhi nahi le ja saki, shayad wo ek naye mahine ka intezaar kar rahe hain, is mahine aage nahi badhne ka iraada hai, lekin shayad aaj unke paas abhi bhi waqt ho. Be shak zyada se zyada ko paar kiya jayega, lekin sawal ye hai ke kis had tak. Hum yeh samajh sakte hain ke keemat Fibonacci grid ke target ke mutabiq 161.8 ke darje tak pohanchegi, jo pehle lehar par lagaya gaya tha. Main abhi koi neechi banawat nahi ghor raha. Zahir hai ke maximum par ab bechnay ki positions jama ho rahi hain, kyun ke bohot se log maan rahe hain ke 151.90 ke moqoof darjaat ko bohot mazboot samajh kar ye ummeed kar rahe hain ke keemat pichli bar oonchaai se guzar bina upar jaayegi. Achha, agar ye kamyaab hua, to wo minus ka intezar karne ke liye tayyar hain. Asal mein, halat normal hain, mujhe lagta hai ke keemat turant bohot upar nahi ja sakti, lekin be shak kuch bhi ho sakta hai, ye yen hai. Shayad ab wo zyada petrol ikhata karegi aur oonchaai mein uranay lagaygi jaise ek rocket. Ajeeb baat hai ke pair ki keemat ab tak upar nahi gayi, maslan, dollar aur franc ne is trading ke dinon mein acha kaam kiya hai, ye madadgar lagta hai, lekin abhi tak kaam nahi aaya. Lekin mujhe lagta hai ke ye ek waqti phenomenon hai aur kisi bhi din aage badhne ka mauqa aayega. Aaj bohot se mulkon mein chutti hai - Good Friday, lekin khabrein hain. 15-30 Moscow waqt - Amriki mutasir shakhsiyat ki shakhsi istemal shaya kharid ki bunyadi keemat ka index saalana aur mahinayana taur par. 18-30 - Amriki Federal Reserve System ke sadar Jerome Powell ka taqreer. Jab bhi aap chhote stop ke sath intraday kaam karte hain to inki ijlaas ke waqt ko maday nazar rakhen

Pichle haftay, USD/JPY 149.20 tak gir gaya, lekin jaldi se phir se ubhara. Ibtida ka rujhan mostly is haftay ke liye neutral rehta hai. Nechay ki taraf, 150.87 ke tor par ek phir se 140.25 se 151.89/93 tak ke ahem resistance par izafa hoga. Dusri taraf, 4-hour MACD mein bearish mukhalif shirakat shart mein, 149.20 ke mazboot tor par girne se 150.87 par qareebi uncha sabit ho jayega. Aik mazeed giraawat ko aik support rukh (halankeh 148.33 abhi hai) ke tor par dekha jayega, hata ke aik islaahi harkat. Ziyada gehre tor par, 140.25 se uthna 127.20 (2023 ke kamzor level) se rukh jari ke tor par dekha jata hai. 151.89/0.93 ke resistance zones ka tafseel se tor par torh dena, yeh bullish manzar ko tasdeeq karega, aur jodi ko, 127.20 se 151.89 tak, aur phir se 140.25 se 155.50 tak, 61.8% projection, ke liye nishandahi karega. Magar, 148.79 ke resistance ka torh hokar support ban jaana, yeh bullish manzar ko der kar dega aur 151.89 se islaahi dhancha ko mazeed ek neechay ki rukh ke liye phelayega.



Market dynamics ke ilaqe mein, December se rasta ek wazeh taur par taqsim shuda channel ke andar ek buland rukh ko barqarar rakhne ki khasoosiye hai. Temporary lower boundary ki kuch istikhraj ke bawajood, baad ki wapas channel hadood ko izhar karta hai aur iska mazbooti ko zahir karta hai aur mukhalif bullish trend ka barqarar honay ka ishara deta hai. Aage, mazeed buland rawani ke liye kafi jagah nazar aati hai, halke dhamakey ke nazarandaaz hone ke baad, haal hi ki market harkat ko khareedne ka dabaav dikhata hai. Iske ilawa, nechay ki hadood ka haal hil ki tajrobon ko aik dilchasp dakhil nikaal ka markazi nuqta faraham karta hai jo ke buland rawani jari rakhne ke doran aik teenth munafa ka moqa de sakta hai. USD/JPY ke yeh dynamics ke tajziya ke mutabiq, mojooda market jazbat ne buland rawani ke mazeed tor par tawajjo ko madad di hai. Ek qaim ho chuka taqseem channel pattern, sath hi nechay ki hadood ki qawi tasleeb, bullish faaliyat ke liye ek faide mand mahol ka sabaq faraham karte hain. Magar, market dynamics mein mojood gham hain is liye ehtiyat zaroori hai. Halankeh mojooda tajwez buland rawani ko tawajjo faraham karta hai, lekin ghair mutawaqqa waqe'at is rukh ko badal sakti hain. Ghair tabayee gharoobiat, ma'ashiyati data release aur tijarat ki jazbat mein tabdeelian market ke rukh ko asar andaz hoti hain, jisse karobar ke faislon ke liye ek nuaasindah approach ki zaroorat hoti hai.

**USD/JPY Takneeki Tahlil (Technical Analysis):**

Pichle haftay, USD/JPY 149.20 tak gir gaya, lekin jaldi se phir se ubhara. Ibtida ka rujhan mostly is haftay ke liye neutral rehta hai. Nechay ki taraf, 150.87 ke tor par ek phir se 140.25 se 151.89/93 tak ke ahem resistance par izafa hoga. Dusri taraf, 4-hour MACD mein bearish mukhalif shirakat shart mein, 149.20 ke mazboot tor par girne se 150.87 par qareebi uncha sabit ho jayega. Aik mazeed giraawat ko aik support rukh (halankeh 148.33 abhi hai) ke tor par dekha jayega, hata ke aik islaahi harkat. Ziyada gehre tor par, 140.25 se uthna 127.20 (2023 ke kamzor level) se rukh jari ke tor par dekha jata hai. 151.89/0.93 ke resistance zones ka tafseel se tor par torh dena, yeh bullish manzar ko tasdeeq karega, aur jodi ko, 127.20 se 151.89 tak, aur phir se 140.25 se 155.50 tak, 61.8% projection, ke liye nishandahi karega. Magar, 148.79 ke resistance ka torh hokar support ban jaana, yeh bullish manzar ko der kar dega aur 151.89 se islaahi dhancha ko mazeed ek neechay ki rukh ke liye phelayega.

**Market Dynamics (Market Dynamics):**

Market dynamics ke ilaqe mein, December se rasta ek wazeh taur par taqsim shuda channel ke andar ek buland rukh ko barqarar rakhne ki khasoosiye hai. Temporary lower boundary ki kuch istikhraj ke bawajood, baad ki wapas channel hadood ko izhar karta hai aur iska mazbooti ko zahir karta hai aur mukhalif bullish trend ka barqarar honay ka ishara deta hai. Aage, mazeed buland rawani ke liye kafi jagah nazar aati hai, halke dhamakey ke nazarandaaz hone ke baad, haal hi ki market harkat ko khareedne ka dabaav dikhata hai. Iske ilawa, nechay ki hadood ka haal hil ki tajrobon ko aik dilchasp dakhil nikaal ka markazi nuqta faraham karta hai jo ke buland rawani jari rakhne ke doran aik teenth munafa ka moqa de sakta hai. USD/JPY ke yeh dynamics ke tajziya ke mutabiq, mojooda market jazbat ne buland rawani ke mazeed tor par tawajjo ko madad di hai. Ek qaim ho chuka taqseem channel pattern, sath hi nechay ki hadood ki qawi tasleeb, bullish faaliyat ke liye ek faide mand mahol ka sabaq faraham karte hain. Magar, market dynamics mein mojood gham hain is liye ehtiyat zaroori hai. Halankeh mojooda tajwez buland rawani ko tawajjo faraham karta hai, lekin ghair mutawaqqa waqe'at is rukh ko badal sakti hain. Ghair tabayee gharoobiat, ma'ashiyati data release aur tijarat ki jazbat mein tabdeelian market ke rukh ko asar andaz hoti hain, jisse karobar ke faislon ke liye ek nuaasindah approach ki zaroorat hoti hai.

Pichle haftay, USD/JPY 149.20 tak gir gaya, lekin jaldi se phir se ubhara. Ibtida ka rujhan mostly is haftay ke liye neutral rehta hai. Nechay ki taraf, 150.87 ke tor par ek phir se 140.25 se 151.89/93 tak ke ahem resistance par izafa hoga. Dusri taraf, 4-hour MACD mein bearish mukhalif shirakat shart mein, 149.20 ke mazboot tor par girne se 150.87 par qareebi uncha sabit ho jayega. Aik mazeed giraawat ko aik support rukh (halankeh 148.33 abhi hai) ke tor par dekha jayega, hata ke aik islaahi harkat. Ziyada gehre tor par, 140.25 se uthna 127.20 (2023 ke kamzor level) se rukh jari ke tor par dekha jata hai. 151.89/0.93 ke resistance zones ka tafseel se tor par torh dena, yeh bullish manzar ko tasdeeq karega, aur jodi ko, 127.20 se 151.89 tak, aur phir se 140.25 se 155.50 tak, 61.8% projection, ke liye nishandahi karega. Magar, 148.79 ke resistance ka torh hokar support ban jaana, yeh bullish manzar ko der kar dega aur 151.89 se islaahi dhancha ko mazeed ek neechay ki rukh ke liye phelayega.

Bazaar ki dynamics ke mahol mein:


December se raasta ek wazeh taur par taqsim shuda channel ke andar buland rawani ka barqarar rakhne ki khasoosiye hai. Temporary lower boundary ki kuch istikhraj ke bawajood, baad ki wapas channel hadood ko izhar karta hai aur iska mazbooti ko zahir karta hai aur mukhalif bullish trend ka barqarar honay ka ishara deta hai. Aage, mazeed buland rawani ke liye kafi jagah nazar aati hai, halke dhamakey ke nazarandaaz hone ke baad, haal hi ki market harkat ko khareedne ka dabaav dikhata hai. Iske ilawa, nechay ki hadood ka haal hil ki tajrobon ko aik dilchasp dakhil nikaal ka markazi nuqta faraham karta hai jo ke buland rawani jari rakhne ke doran aik teenth munafa ka moqa de sakta hai.

USD/JPY ki Tasveeri:


Mozu ke is context mein tasveer-e-hal, haazir market jazbat ko mazeed buland rawani ki madad faraham karti hai. Qaim ho chuka taqseem channel pattern, sath hi nechay ki hadood ki qawi tasleeb, bullish faaliyat ke liye ek faide mand mahol ka sabaq faraham karte hain. Lekin, ehtiyaat zaroori hai kyun ke bazaar dynamics mein mawjood ghumrahiyan baqi hain. Halankeh mojooda tajwez buland rawani ko tawajjo faraham karta hai, lekin ghair mutawaqqa waqe'at is rukh ko badal sakti hain. Siyasi ma’amlaat, ma'ashi data release aur tijarat ki jazbat mein tabdeelian market ke rukh ko asar andaz hoti hain, jisse karobar ke faislon ke liye ek nuaasindah approach ki zaroorat hoti hai.

USD/JPY 149.20 tak gir gaya, lekin jaldi se phir se ubhara. Ibtida ka rujhan mostly is haftay ke liye neutral rehta hai. Nechay ki taraf, 150.87 ke tor par ek phir se 140.25 se 151.89/93 tak ke ahem resistance par izafa hoga. Dusri taraf, 4-hour MACD mein bearish mukhalif shirakat shart mein, 149.20 ke mazboot tor par girne se 150.87 par qareebi uncha sabit ho jayega.Market analysis ke mutabiq, 149.20 ke mazboot tor par girne ke baad, 150.87 ke qareebi uncha kaafi ahem hai jo ke resistance ke tor par darust hota hai. Agar yeh darja torh diya jata hai, toh pair ka agla target 151.89/0.93 ke resistance zones ka ho sakta hai.





Aik mazeed giraawat ko aik support rukh (halankeh 148.33 abhi hai) ke tor par dekha jayega, hata ke aik islaahi harkat. Ziyada gehre tor par, 140.25 se uthna 127.20 (2023 ke kamzor level) se rukh jari ke tor par dekha jata hai.Traders ko market ki halat ko tawajjo se dekhna chahiye aur resistance zones ko torne par amal karne se pehle mazbooti se tajziyaat aur strategies ko istemal karna chahiye. Stop loss orders ka istemal karke apne positions ko mazbooti se manage karna bhi zaroori hai taake nuqsaan ki sambhavna ko kam kiya ja sake.Overall, USD/JPY pair ke mazboot tor par girne ke baad, 150.87 ke qareebi uncha aur 151.89/0.93 ke resistance zones ko tawajjo se dekha jana chahiye taake traders apni positions ko mazbooti se manage kar sakein.

USD/JPY currency pair kaafi muddat se izafa kar raha hai. Subah ki trading mein, kharidari karne walon ne dekha ke keemat 149.40 ke resistance area level ko paar nahi kar sake, jabke 149.30 ke resistance area level mojood tha. Yeh scenario humein ek reference point deta hai ke hum currency pair USD/JPY par ek farokht order rakh sakte hain. Trend indicators par tawajjo dete hue, maloom hota hai ke currency pair ki keemat mein izafa hua hai, lekin samajhna important hai ke yeh izafa temporary ho sakta hai ya phir long-term trend ka hissa hai. Is situation mein, yeh zaroori hai ke traders apni strategy ko adjust karein aur risk management ko madde nazar rakhein.

Agar hum dekhein toh, USD/JPY currency pair kaafi volatile hai aur iski keemat mein taizi se tabdeeliyan hoti rehti hain. Is volatility ko samajhna aur us par amal karna zaroori hai taake sahi waqt par trade kiya ja sake. Is ke ilawa, geopolitical events aur economic indicators bhi is currency pair ki keemat par asar dalte hain, is liye traders ko market ke hawalon aur tezi se tabdeeliyon par muttafiq rehna chahiye. Resistance aur support levels ko monitor karna bhi trading ke liye zaroori hai. In levels se guzarna currency pair ki movement ka aham hissa hai aur traders ke liye entry aur exit points ka faisla karne mein madadgar hota hai.

Trading mein safalta ke liye, zaroori hai ke traders apni strategy ko mazboot aur flexible banayein. Technical analysis ke saath-saath fundamental analysis bhi zaroori hai takay puri tarah se market ka andaza ho sake aur sahi faislay kiya ja sake. Iske ilawa, risk management ko bhi ahmiyat di jani chahiye taake nuksan se bacha ja sake aur trading career ko lamba aur mustaqbilmand banaya ja sake. Is tarah se, USD/JPY currency pair par trading karte waqt, traders ko market ki hawaon ko samajhna, technical aur fundamental analysis ka istemal karna aur risk management ko madde nazar rakhte hue amal karna chahiye.

Forex market ka shor macha hua hai aur traders ki nazar main tajaweezat aur peshgoiyan chal rahi hain. Yen ki keemat par amooman sakoon hai lekin thodi si behtari ki umeed hai. Main USD/JPY currency pair ka mojooda rawayya discuss karunga, jismein mein ne kuch faislay karne ka irada kiya hai. Yen ke farokht par kaafi sakin hoon, lekin samajh raha hoon ke kisi tarah keemat na to kisi taraf jaana chahti hai aur na hi yahaan. Aam harkat ki tasveer koi yaqeeni nishandahi nahi karti. Aur is liye, maine ek mazboot faisla kiya hai ke mujhe kuch kharidna chahiye. Shubahat to hain, lekin ek paishgoi mujhe 151.25 se 151.98 ke ilaqe par qaim rehne ke liye dabaav dal rahi hai. Mujhe pehle se kafi kuch dekh liya hai; is baar main apne stops ko 152.03 ke nishan par rakhunga. Yeh faisla soch samajh ke liya gaya hai aur meri pasandeedgiyon ke dabeer par. Meri tawajjo ko barabar se maziati hisab kitaab ke ilm ki taraf muraad di gayi hai, mujhe lagta hai ke behtar hai ke main yahan istemal karun.



Yeh market analysis ka samay hai, aur maine apni strategy ko mazboot karne ke liye tajurbat aur data ka istemal kiya hai. Haalaanki, forex market ki duniya bahut hi mutasir aur tabdeel hone wali hoti hai, isliye main apne faislay ko maahir logon ki ray aur tajziyon ke sath mukhtalif tehqiqat karta hoon. Yen ki keemat par mukhtalif factors ka asar hota hai, jaise ke mulki aur global siyasi halaat, arz o demand ke tabdeel hone wale ratios, aur tajurba kar traders ki nazar main mukhtalif peshgoiyan. Is liye, apne faislon ko mazbooti aur aqalmandi ke sath lena zaroori hai. Maine apne faislon ko tay kiya hai lekin mujhe pata hai ke koi bhi trading faisla 100% yaqeeni nahi hota. Is liye, main apne stops ko tight rakhta hoon taake nuqsan ko kam kiya ja sake. Yen ki keemat par trading karte waqt, hosla aur samajhdari ka istemal zaroori hai. Mere faislay ko chunauti se samna karna padega lekin mujhe umeed hai ke meri strategy mujhe kamiyabi degi.

USD/JPY pair mein, kal ke din qeemat puray din mein jama hone wale ikhata zone ke andar jari rahi. Is natije mein, din khatam hone tak, mazeed ghumao-phirao ka ek aur mumkin candle ban gaya, jo pichle din ke range se bahar nikalne mein kamiyab nahin hua. Pehle bhi zikr kiya gaya hai, ke is aalaat mein ikhata hone ki waziha nishaniyan hain, jo ke ek tayranayak tor par bahar aane ki sambhavna ko le kar aati hain. Is surat mein, mojudah tamam trend ko madde nazar rakhte hue, shakhsan, mujhe ummid hai ke impulse oopar ki taraf jaega. Magar, ek ahem mukabla darjaat ka level hai, jo 151.818 par mark kiya gaya hai, jahan main dekhna chahta hoon ke is level ke aas paas halaat kis tarah se barhate hain.
Jaisa ke pehle zikr kiya gaya hai, is mukablay ke darjat ko test karne par do mansubay hote hain. Pehla mansuba shamil hai ke qeemat is level ke oopar mazid muntazim ho aur urooj ki taraf barhti rahe. Agar yeh mansuba asar andaz hota hai, to main umeed karta hoon ke qeemat agle resistance level 156.000 ki taraf jaegi. Is resistance level ke qareeb, main agle trading raah ka faisla karne ke liye ek trading setup talash karonga. Ek mazeed doorutami shumara bhi pohanchne ki sambhavna hai, jo ke 160.400 par mark kiya gaya hai, magar yeh mukhtalif surat-e-hal, khabar ki rawish aur raste mein qeemat ke rad-e-amal par munhasir hoga.

151.818 par mukablay ke darjaat ko dobara test karne par ek ulta mansuba bhi ho sakta hai, jo ke ek muntaqil janoobi harkat ka aghaz dikhata hai. Agar yeh mansuba asar andaz hota hai, to main qeemat ko 149.205 ke support level ki taraf palatne ki umeed rakhta hoon. Is support level ke qareeb, main urooj ki taraf ke keemat ko umeed kar ke bullish signals talash karonga. Halankeh mazeed janoobi shumaron tak pohanchne ki sambhavna hai, lekin main is waqt usay nahi samajh raha hoon kyunke main us ki mojooda tabdeeliyon ke liye fori imkanat nahi dekhta

Mukhtasir tor par, is waqt mujhe kisi khas dilchasp baat ka pata nahi chalta. Aam tor par, main shumal ki rukh ki jari rakhne ki taraf raghib hoon, magar mojooda overbought sharaet aur nazdeeki ahem mukabla darjaat ko madde nazar rakhte hue, main aik ishtehaar murattab ko dekhna pasand karonga jo qareebi support level ki taraf ek ishtehaar kheench kar sasti qeemat par kharidne ki imkanat ko tajziyat karne ke liye mufeed ho

USD/JPY Technical chart


USD/JPY is currently trading calmly around 151.40 in early European trading on Friday. Tokyo ke consumer price index (YoY) ne March mein 2.6% barh kar 2.5% ke baad February mein izafa kiya. Is dauraan, Tokyo ke core CPI ne saal ke doosre mahine mein 3.1% se 2.9% tak ki kami dekhi. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki ne Jumma ko ek taqreer di, jis mein woh ma'ashi bunyadiyat ke mutabiq currency ke trends ko mustehkam karne ki ahmiyat par zor diya. Unhone mukhtalif maamlaat ke tezi se tabdeel hone par fikar zahir ki aur in tabdeelion ko tajziye ke liye zimmedar thehraya. Suzuki ne kaha ke hukoomat ba-khwahish bank ko madda-talab monetary shiraa'it ko barqarar rakhne ke liye sath dene par zor degi aur economy ko deflation se nikalne ke liye hukoomat ki taraf se Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke saath taawun par zor diya. USD/JPY jodi ko yeh taasur mil raha hai ke Japanese yen (JPY) ko Bank of Japan ki hifazati monetary shiraa'it ko barqarar rakhne ki chunauti ka samna kar sakta hai. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) mustaqil hai, 104.60 ke qareeb, kyun ke hal hal ke data ne dikhaya ke U.S. ki economy saalana darajat par phail rahi hai, jo ke consumer spending ke zariye nashonuma ho rahi hai. 2023 ke chouthay quarter mein, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) ne behtareen 3.2% ke bawajood 3.4% ke annualized darajat par barhao kiya. U.S. gross domestic product price index mustaqil rahi, 1.7% barh kar, chouthay quarter ke liye ummeedon ke mutabiq.





Federal Reserve (Fed) afraad ki hawkish tajaweezat ne dollar ko mazboot kiya. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller ki chandar taqreer se mazid darayein mili ke mazboot ma'ashi data ke roshni mein rate cut ka taaluk faalt ho sakta hai. Takneekan, USD/JPY ke liye 152.00 ke breakout neoretiqan oopri raftar ko mazboot kar sakta hai aur 154.00 ki taraf rukhne ka raasta de sakta hai. Magar, koi bhi bullish breakout lambe arse tak qaim nahi reh sakta kyunke Japanese hukoomat jald hi yen ko support karne ke liye daakhil ho sakti hai. Isliye, 152.00 ilaaqa ke oopar ka kisi bhi harkat ko qowati ke tor par dekha ja sakta hai. Magar, FX intervention ke baghair, bulls ko taqwiyat hasil karne ka mouqa mil sakta hai takay woh 158.50 aur phir April 1990 ki unchi 160.00 ki taraf hamla kar sakein. Dusri taraf, agar USD/JPY halat se inkar karta hai aur neeche rukh leta hai, to support March swing low aur 200-day simple moving average ke qareeb 146.50 par aata hai. Iske baad, mazeed support levels 145.00, 143.50 aur 140.45 par hasil hote hain, jisme se aakhri 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021-2022 upleg ko nishanuma barqarar karta hai. Is juncture ke baad mazeed nuqsan 137.00 aur phir 133.25 par markooz hoga.

USD/JPY ka market chhota sa gap ke saath khula aur ab tak Asian session mein keemat shumal ki taraf adjust ho rahi hai. Is halat mein, mujhe lagta hai ke aaj ke din southern movement jaari reh sakti hai. Iske peeche mukhtalif turning signals ka bhi asar ho sakta hai, jo ke maine pehle bhi zikar kiya tha. Mujhe lagta hai ke abhi ke liye zaroori hai ke main support level par nazar rakho. Meri marking ke mutabiq, yeh level 149.201 par hai. Yeh ek crucial point hai jahan se market ka trend change ho sakta hai. Agar market is level ko break karta hai aur nichay ki taraf jaata hai, toh yeh indicate kar sakta hai ke bearish momentum jaari hai aur hume niche ke levels ko dekhna padega, jaise ke 148.800 ya phir 148.500. Lekin, ek baat yaad rakhni zaroori hai ke market hamesha unpredictable hota hai aur technical analysis sirf ek hissa hota hai. Fundamental factors bhi market ke movement ko influence karte hain, jaise ke economic indicators, geopolitical events, aur monetary policy decisions. Isliye, mujhe lagta hai ke hume market ke mukhtalif scenarios ka bhi tajziya karna hoga. Agar market support level ko hold karta hai aur phir se upper ki taraf move karta hai, toh hume resistance levels par dhyaan dena hoga. Ek strong resistance level 150.000 ke aas paas ho sakta hai, jahan se market ko phir se neeche ki taraf shift ho sakta hai. Is waqt, main cautious hoon aur market ke har movement ko closely observe kar raha hoon. Mujhe lagta hai ke risk management ka bhi khayal rakhna zaroori hai, jaise ke stop-loss orders lagana aur position size ko control karna. Overall, abhi ke liye meri nazar support level par hai aur main market ke further developments ka intezar kar raha hoon.

USD/JPY

Mukhtasir Guftagu: Maujooda tajziya ke mutabiq, tasleem kiya ja raha hai ke USD ab bhi bechne walon ke zor se munsalik ho sakta hai. Jari nifaz shuda policies ke sath, dollar currency ab bhi ek mustaqil halat mein bearish dabao ke tahat hai, aur jo kamzor shuruhwati shurahat hain wo USDJPY currency pair mein qeemat ke levels paida karte hain jo abhi tak taza tasleem kiye jate hain, jo ke ek lower low ke tor par darj kiya gaya hai, jo ke amoman, USDJPY market par ek downtrend halat ka lagoo ho sakta hai.

Bunyadi Guftagu: USD ko manfi girawat ka samna karne ka khayal hai, halaanki mahangi kam darjat mein hai. Magar yaad rakhna ahem hai ke Federal Reserve ke interest daro ko kum karne ki policy ko bilkul bhi nazar andaz nahi kiya jana chahiye kyun ke yeh dollar ko kamzor karne ke liye behtareen salahiyat ban sakti hai. Jabke, JPY currency abhi tak BOJ data ka intezar kar rahi hai jo ke is currency ko ek mustaqil tawazun mein mazbooti ka markaz banaye rakhna chahiye. Magar, maujooda halat ko samajhna mumkin hai ke Asian session abhi bhi do currencies ke liye ek moatayat halat hai.

Technic Guftagu: Market ke tawazun mein, dekha gaya hai ke 50% USDJPY ki movement ko bechne walon ne kamyabi se control kiya hai. Is ko aik zor daar bearish mombati ke banne ke zariye dekha ja sakta hai, is liye maujooda harkat ke sabab ek saturation halat ke tor par tasleem kiya jata hai jo phir pehle theek karta hai. Tasleem ki gayi durusti halat ke baad CCI -100 ke darjat par hoti hai, is liye ek izafah hony ka amar hai ke aik izaafah ke tor par izafah ho sakta hai jo ke bazaar girawat ke dohrane se pehle hota hai kyun ke bara trend ab bhi bearish tasleem kiya jata hai. 151,793 ke qeemat par, yeh abhi tak sab se qareebi ilaka hai jahan se ek bechne ki entry faisla kiya ja sakta hai kyun ke yeh abhi tak taza ilaka hai jo ke UJ market ko pehle bazaar girawat ko jaari rakhne se pehle test karne ke liye bohot hi aqalmandana hai.

jziyah
Japan ke mukhtalif ahem kaarobari events ke baad, jaise ke darjaat e bai’at aur karz e rafiq mein izafa, USD/JPY currency pair apna upri raasta jaari rakhta raha, jiske asaarat 150.48 ke resistance level tak phail gaye. Tajziyah tayyar karne ke waqt, nazar aata hai ke bai’at aur bank statement ki bayaanati tijarat karne walon ke arzoo ke mutaabiq nahi the, aur Japan ki Central Bank ki manfiyat se strong interest policy hai. Is se pehle, Japanese yen ki keemat kareeban 149 yen per US dollar tak kamzor ho gayi thi, jab ke tijarat karne walay is haftay Japan ke Central Bank ke policy faisla ka intezaar kar rahe the, kyun ke iski tawaanat se umeed hai ke wo manfi interest rate policy ko khatm karega. Ye betain bari japanese companies ne is saal ke spring wage negotiations mein mazeed intehai dafa tawaruf karae ke baawajood aai.

Apne kirdar mein, Bank of Japan ke afisaal baar baar izhar kiya hai ke agar maasum mad e amal aur mahangai ke darmiyan farokht mein barhti hui silsalah jari rahe to wo maali policy ko normal karne ka aaghaz kar sakti hai. Magar analysis ko is baat ka andaaza hai ke market ne iss potenshal policy shift ko pehle se shumar kar liya hai, aur rukha ****l ki tezi ke mutaaliq pareshaniyan hain. Baharhal, Japanese yen ko mazeed dabaav ka samna tha mazid se ummeed hai ke US inflation data se, jo ke taqreeban ke ilaawa se taqatwar tha, jis se Federal Reserve ke interest rates ke early cut ki umeedain kamzor hui.

Bank of Japan ki ek mumkinah tareekhi darjaat e bai’at ki bareh khuwahish ko haftay ki shuruaat mein abad kar diya gaya hai, jab ke US Federal Reserve, sath hi UK, Switzerland aur Australia ke central banks apne taza policy faislaat ka izhar karenge.

Aam taur par, tijarat karne walay ye bet kar rahe hain ke Bank of Japan apni tanqeedi manfi interest rate policy ko April ki mulaqat tak intizaar nahi karega, aur unhein maalumat mil gayi thi Pichle Jumme ko pehli wazahat ki mulaqat se. Japan ki bari trade union, Ringo, ne elaan kiya ke uske afraad ne saal 2024 ke liye 5.28% ki average tanqeed par itefaq kya, jo ke 33 saalon mein sabse bari hai. Isharon ki daleel hai ke Japan ke bade companies mahangai ki raftar par tanqeedon ko barha rahe hain, jo ke kuch Bank of Japan ke board members ko March ke bajaye April mein tanqeedon ke ihtimam ke mumkinah pehlu ki isharon se inkar kar diya. Magar unka umeedmandi ne unki haqiqat ko taayin nahi kiya, jo ke Japan ki Central Bank ke governor Kazuo Ueda, ne haal hi mein kiye gaye unke tajziyati khitab mein thori shakhsiyat ka izhar kiya, aur April se pehle policy mein tabdeeli ka intizaar nahi kiya.

Pichle haftay Bank of Japan ne dar-e-afaal ko barhane ka button daba diya, aur yeh dramaybaazi ko asaan kar diya jab mulk bhar ke tanazaat ne bare companies ke mulazimon ke tanazaat mein izafay ka aham inkishaf kiya. Magar agar khidmati sektar ki mahangi mein koi izafa na ho, to Bank of Japan ke policymakers mazeed dar-e-afaal izafay se bachne ka irada kar sakte hain. Bazaar mein Bank of Japan ke qadam ko dar-e-afaal se bahar nikalne ka pehli martaba 8 saalon mein honay wale markazi shor macha hua hai, lekin Bank of Japan ne apni adaptability policy ko asal mein tark nahin kiya hai.Pichle haftay, Bank of Japan ne zahir kiya ke woh takreeban wahi miqdaar sarkari bonds khareedegi jaise pehle karti thi, aur March ki mulaqat ki raayon ka khulasa dikhata hai ke uske afraad hosh-o-hawas aur ehtiyaat se siyasat ko normal karne ki taraf dherne ka irada rakhte hain. Bank of Japan ka dar-e-afaal yen ki kamzori ko sahara nahin pohnchaya, jo ke puri haftay ke darmiyan 151.50 ke qareeb baazi ki. 151.58 aur 151.76 agle rukawat ke darjah hain.USD/JPY jodi 151.36 ke support se neeche gir gayi hai aur 151.18 par support ko azma rahi hai.




USD/JPY jodi sakoonat se qaim hai aur Jumeraat ko Europi waqt ke doran 151.355 ke din ka barabar darja se neeche trade kar rahi hai. Tokyo mein consumer price index March mein 2.6% barh gaya, February mein 2.5% ke izafay ke baad. Intehai shares 151.25 par trade kar rahe hain, 0.09% ke kami mein. Jodi ka intehai kam zor josh isko normal trading ke liye manne nahi deta. Rozana candle 151.189 ke neeche band hone se agay bechne ki taraf le ja sakta hai, jis mein zehni darja shamil hai.

As salam-o-alikum. Japan ke financial manzar mein kuch ahem tabdeeliyan hui hain. Federal Reserve ne is saal teen bar recreational prices mein kami ka izafa karne ka pehle iraada kiya tha, lekin phir is tajwez ko tark kar diya. Jawab mein, Federal Reserve ne daily recreational rates ko kam karke unhe ek range mein la diya. Iss ke bawajood, Federal Reserve ne wazeh kiya ke wo consumer prices ko tab tak kam nahi karegi jab tak wo puri tarah se yaqeeni nahi ho jati ke mahangi daro ko apne 4% ke had tak qabu mein rakha ja sakta hai. Dilchaspi ki baat ye hai ke duniya bhar ke central banks, including Federal Reserve, ne economic uncertainties ko kam karne ke liye mukhtalif recreational price insurance programs ko shuru kiya hai. Ye strategy Swiss recreational spending mein achanak se ghata rehne ke doran nazar nahi aayi, jo ke aise measures ki kamyabi ko dikhata hai. Halankeh, ab market ka mahol dollar ke liye bullish nazar a raha hai, or umeed hai ke yeh trend mazeed barqarar rahega. Ye sentiment tab tak qaim rahega jab tak USD/JPY daily M15 timeframe chart ke exchange rate mei kisi had tak kami na aaye, jo ke 151.36 ke critical threshold se kam ho.



USD/JPY daily M15 timeframe chart ka closing price thoda sa 151.38 ke qareeb tay kiya gaya, jo ke Jumma ko paaya gaya tha, or ye ek char mahine ka bulandi tha. Japan ke finance minister ki taraf se sakhti se mana kiya gaya ke speculators ko currency ko kamzor karne se bachna chahiye, iske natijay mein yen ki qeemat mein foran izafa hua. Japan ke finance ministry ke chief currency analyst ne is darjaat ko taeyen kiya ke mojooda yen ki kamzori ko koi bunyadi sahara nahi hai, or unhone halhi mein yen ki keemat ko kam kar diya hai. Market ke hissadaron ne 152.00 ke darjaat ko nazar andaaz kiya hai taa ke samay ke kisi intervention ke signs ko dekha ja sake. USD/JPY ke barqarar buland darjaat is saal ke doran ye dikhate hain ke dollar ke liye bullish sentiment jari hai. Magar, hosla ye hai ke ek mazeed bulandi ki taraf ghor kiya jaaye.

USD/JPY)

Maine pehle bhi note kiya tha ke US Federal Reserve ki sakht policy aur Bank of Japan ke darmiyan ikhtilaf, jo ke negative interest rates ko chhod diya, lekin hushyar taur par, bullon ko taqwiyat faraham karta hai taake woh Japanese yen (USD/JPY) ke sath America dollar ka rukh nigrani mein rakh saken, aur haftay ke shuru mein mazboot trading ke darmiyan, yeh mustawar hoti hai. 151.40 ke resistance level ke aaspaas, pichle haftay iske mazboot faiday 151.86 ke resistance level tak phail gaye. Currency pair ke faiday ko rokne wale statements Japan ke currency officials ke taraf se thay jin mein forex currency market ke performance ka nigrani karna shamil tha, wada karte hue ke agar currency price girna jari rahe to unhe beech mein aayenge, jo ke ma'ashi zakhmon ko nuksan pahuncha sakta hai.

Ek aur darje par. Amreeki stock indexes ne chhoti trading week ko Monday ko neeche shuru kiya, pichle haftay ke mazboot faiday ke baad jo ke Wall Street market indexes ko record levalon par puhancha diya. Stocks trading platforms ke mutabiq, Dow Jones index 162 points gir gaya, aur S&P 500 aur Nasdaq 100 indexes ne 0.3% ki nuqsan darja ki. Consumer aur industrial goods sectors piche rahe, jabke energy sector ne behtar kar dikhaya.

Corporate khabron mein, Intel shares 1.7% gir gaye report ke baad ke China ne personal computers aur government servers mein US Intel microprocessors ko khatam karne ke hudd takay. Microsoft stock bhi 1.4% gir gaya naye guidelines ke asar ke lehaz se Windows operating systems par. United Airlines shares 3.4% gir gaye Reuters ki report ke mutabiq ke US Federal Aviation Administration ne halhi mein safety incidents ke bharat scrutiny ko barhaya hai. Ek acchi baat ye thi ke chipmakers jaise Micron Technology 6.3% aur Nvidia 0.8% barh gaye.

Ek aur darje par. Das saal ke US Treasury bonds ki yeld 4.25% tak barh gayi, jisme traders ko zyada catalysts ka intezaar hai takay woh Federal Reserve ke daramad ke waqt US interest rate cuts ka tajziya kar sakein. Aam tor par, shakhsiyat ki consumption expenditures inflation, jo ke Fed ka pasandida tajziya hai, Jum'ah ko jaari kiya jayega, aur investors Governor Powell ke sath sath kai afraad ke tajziya karenge, jisme Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook ne kaha ke Federal Reserve ko Hoshiyar taur par agay barhna chahiye jab decide kare ke US interest rates ka khatma kab shuru karna hai.