USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Kal ka band point, 151.669, aik tajwez deta hai jahan traders peechle din ka band qeemat dekhtay hain aur apni positions ko us ke mutabiq adjust karte hain. Ye tareeqa technical analysis mein istemal hota hai, jo traders ke liye mustaqbil ke qeemat ke manfi ya musbat rukh ka andaza lagane ka zariya hai. Kal ke band point par mabni faislon se, traders ko bazaar mein mumkinayat ke trends ya reversals ka faida uthane ka maqsad hota hai. Agar asset ka mojooda qeemat kal ke band price se zyada ho, to ye bullish momentum ka ishaara ho sakta hai, jo traders ko khareedne ya apni positions ko
barqarar rakhne par amada karta hai


Mutasibat ke tor par, agar qeemat peechle
din ke band se kam ho, to ye bearish sentiment ko darust kar sakta hai, jo traders ko shayad bechna ya ek muhafizana stance ikhtiyar karne par mawquf karta hai.
Is ke ilawa, stop-loss orders ko trading strategies mein shamil karna risk management ke liye ahem hai. Stop-loss order ek pehle se tay karda hukum hai jo ek khaas qeemat par asset ko khud ba khud bech deta hai, is tarah mumkinayat se nuqsaan ki hadood ko mehdood karta hai. Stop-loss orders ka istemaal trading mein aik prudent aur musattar tareeqa hai, jo capital ki hifazat ka ahemiyat ko buland martaba deta hai speculative faiday par amal karne ki bajaye. Ye traders ko apne portfolios par qaboo banaye rakhne aur jazbati faislon se bachne ki tawajjo deta hai, jo ke be maqool rawayya aur bari nuqsaan ko la sakti hai.

Ye risk se bachao mentality trading ke saath jurratmand aur mustahkam tareeqe se munsalik hai. Jabke maaliyat ke bazaaron mein faiday ki mumkinayat khaas hain, ye ek mawqoof darja risk ke saath aata hai. Stop-loss orders jaise risk management techniques ka istemaal kar ke, traders apni capital ki hifazat aur faiday peda karne ka darmiyan ek tawazun ikhtiyar karne ki koshish karte hain. Bazaar ke zyada bhar ke manzar mein, traders ko mutaharrik shuruaat aur mohtaat conditions ke mutabiq hoshyar aur maizbaan rehna chahiye. Maasharti saboot, geosiyasi waqiat, aur bazaar ke jazbatiyat, tamam qeemat dynamics par asar daal sakte hain, jis se traders ko apni strategies ko baar baar dobara dekhne aur apni positions ko mutabiq ikhtiyar karna hota hai.

USD/JPY

Currency pair ne 151.26 par support paya hai, jo ke ek upward trajectory ki alaamat ho sakti hai jab tak ye zyada taqatwar support level 151.07 ko paar na kar le. Daily chart ka tajziya ek consolidation pattern dikhata hai, jahan pair 151.07 support aur 151.87 resistance ke darmiyan oscillate kar raha hai. Haal hi mein price action ne is range ke upper boundary ka test dekha hai, jo pair ke mustaqbil ke raaste ke baare mein shak ko jaga raha hai. Jabke technical indicators ek bullish trend ko suggest karte hain, market mein ongoing selling pressure outlook ko complicated bana rahi hai. United States se significant news announcements ki umeed hai, haalaankay abhi tak forecasts neutral hain. Price ko MACD line ka saamna karna padega. 4-hour chart par, price ne balance indicator line ke neeche gir gaya hai. Marlin oscillator downtrend territory mein hai. Ye halaat 150.80 support ko torne ki koshish ke probability ko barha dete hain. Waqtan-fa-waqtan, Japan mein koi major economic releases schedule nahi hain, jo market sentiment mein ek uncertainty ka factor hai.

Summary mein, aaj ka trading session bullish movement ka gawah witness kar sakta hai jo 151.89 resistance level ko target karega. Magar, potential selling pressure ke zariye price ko 151.07 support level ki taraf laa sakti hai, jis se pair established range ke andar rehta hai. Aakhri mein, bullish trend ki indications ke bawajood, market dynamics aur upcoming news announcements cautious optimism aur key support aur resistance levels par tezi se nazar rakhne ko justify karte hain. Traders ko vigilant rehna chahiye aur apni strategies ko accordingly adapt karna chahiye taake established trading range ke andar potential fluctuations ko navigate kar sakein jise MACD line approach kar rahi hai. Isliye, support 150.80 ko overcome karna, dono timeframes ke data ke mutabiq, torne ki nisbat thodi zyada probability rakhta hai.

H-4 Timeframe Analysis
USD/JPY apne 20-day simple moving average ke qareeb muddat se paanchwein straight trading din tak ittehad kar raha hai. Keemat ki mustaqil hone ke bawajood, RSI aur MACD bull market ke ulte ki tasdeeq nahi dete hain. Pehla, jo ke 50 ke barabar hota hai, girte jaa raha hai, aur doosra bhi laal signal line ke neeche dheel raha hai. Iske ilawa, ek uptrend ke sab se upar ke shumara neeche girne wale ek bearish hanging man pattern ko yaad dilaata hai, jo dikhata hai ke market girne wala hai. Yahan neeche chart hai:



D-1 Timeframe Analysis

Agar pair 20-day EMA ko 149.75 par toorta hai, toh 50-day EMA ke qareeb 149.27 ke darjaat ki taraf move mumkin hai. Yeh noteworthy hai ke pichli barhne ke 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level bhi is ilaake mein waqai hai. Is tarah, mazeed girawat aglay girawat ko tasdeeq kar sakti hai jo ke 147.00, June mein keemat ki peak hai. Jab ke agar sirf ek rising price channel 143.30 par toorti hai, toh is current downward trend ki uqubat hogi.

Warna, 20-day EMA ke dobara qareebi bandi keemat ko lekar qareebi resistance zone 152.75 aur 153.65 ki taraf ja sakta hai. Uparwale high 151.93 ke upar ek rising channel ke toorna ke saath, keemat ko marghi 155.30 aur 156.15 ke ilaake ki taraf bhej sakta hai, aur rising trendline se 153.75 ke upar tak takat mil sakti hai.

Aam tor par, qareebi technical tasveer is haftay tak abhi behtar nahi hui hai, lekin asal support ilaqa 151.032 par bana hai. Is ilaqa ke neeche koi girawat mumkin hai jo ke farokht daron ko mazbooti de sakti hai. Yahan neeche chart hai:

USD/JPY currency pair ka 151.31 ke sath darusti se barhna aik aham maqam hai jo kay aksar logon ke liye kafi aham hota hai. Yeh maqam aik mazi mein darust sabit hua hai aur aik mutasir raftar ke saath chal raha hai. Is waqt, is maqam ki wajah se market mein bharak utha hai aur log is line ko dhyan mein rakhte hue trading karte hain. Is maqam ki barhti hui ahmiyat mein kuch aham wajohat shamil hain. Pehli bat, yeh aik markazi maqam hai jo kay market ke dynamics ko samajhne mein madadgar sabit hota hai. Jab market is level tak pohanchta hai, to traders ka dhyan is par zyada hota hai aur woh is darusti ko samajhne ki koshish karte hain. Doosri bat, 151.31 ke sath darusti se barhna market ke liye aik aham confidence indicator hai. Jab yeh level paar hota hai, to yeh ek bullish sentiment ko darust karta hai aur traders ko yeh samajh mein aata hai ke market mein bullish momentum barh sakta hai. Iske ilawa, yeh maqam trading strategies ko tay karte waqt bhi ahem hota hai. Traders is level ko apne stop-loss orders ke liye istemal karte hain takay unki positions ko nuqsan se bachaya ja sake. Is tarah, yeh aik protective measure bhi sabit hota hai jo ke trading ke liye zaroori hai. Yeh maqam market ke liye ek aham psychological level bhi hai. Jab market is level ko paar karta hai, to yeh aksar ek psychological barrier ko toorna hota hai aur traders ka confidence boost hota hai. Magar yeh darusti barhne ki koi guarantee nahi hai. Market dynamics hamesha badalte rehte hain aur kisi bhi waqt is level ko paar karna ya girna mumkin hai. Is liye, traders ko market ko chundh kar trading karte hue apne risk management ko bhi yaad rakhna chahiye. Yeh sabhi factors mil kar yeh maqam USD/JPY currency pair ke liye ahem banate hain aur iski darusti ko barqarar rakhne mein madadgar sabit ho sakti hai.

Bank of Japan ke signals barhte ja rahe hain ke jald hi monetary policy ko normal kia ja sakta hai, jis mein interest rate policy shamil hai. Commerzbank ke ma'aishatdan ye analyze kar rahe hain ke monetary policy ka normal hone se Japanese yen par kis tarah ka asar ho sakta hai. Dunia ka bara hissa abhi taqreban mukhtalif jagahon par barhte hue inflation ka saamna kar raha hai, lekin Japan ne saalon tak kamzor maang ke baad ab bulandi ke daaman mein qeemat ko barhane ki koshish shuru ki hai. Qeemat doosre haftay se ikhata flat mein trade kar rahi hai, jahan 150.885 ke darja ko rukawat ke tor par istemal kiya ja raha hai aur is level ke upar muzayyan hone ki soorat mein, khareedaron ke liye pehla maqsood November 2023 ka maximum 151.909 hai. Dakshini sima mein chalne ke liye, bear ko 149.91 ke neeche muzayyan hona hoga aur phir sochna hoga ke 100 din ka moving average 147.90 ki taraf kami darust karein. Jumma ko yen dollar ke khilaaf gira, jab Japan ke Bank ke sarbarah ne kaha ke manzil ko maqsood ke darjey tak barhane ki jung mein abhi bohot jaldi hai. Bank of Japan ki policy ki ghair yaqeeni aur risk mahol ne safe-haven yen ko kamzor kiya hai. Hawkish Fed ki umeedain US dollar ko support karte hain aur momentum ko barqarar rakhte hain. Haftay ke control zone 150.466-150.92 tak pohanchne ke baad, qeemat is zone ke upar pakad nahi bana saki taake agle zone 152.858-153.092 ki taraf barh sake. 1/4 zone 149.71-149.598 support ka kaam karta hai aur is zone mein pattern banne se ek moqa milega khareedne ka. Is zone ke neeche muzayyan hona yen ka rasta dakshin ki taraf khol dega agle 1/2 zone 148.554-148.334 tak

Ye tajziya pair ki mojooda trends aur mumkinayati mustaqbil ke liye tafseeli jaiza faraham karne ka maqsad rakhta hai. Haal ki trading sessions mein, USDJPY ne ek mustaqil urooj ki manzil dikhaya hai, jo ek darmiyani mor pe bullish trend ki alaamat hai. Ye urooj traders aur analysts ka tawajju hasil kar chuka hai, jis ne mukhtalif factors ke hawale se is ke price action par guftagu ko jhala diya hai. USDJPY ke bullish momentum mein ek ahem factor macroeconomic landscape hai. Dollar aur Japanese yen dono ko mukhtalif iqtisadi daleelat, jaise ke GDP ki growth, inflation indicators aur monetary policy decisions, ka asar parta hai. US dollar ke liye, haal ki data ek mazboot maeeshat, mazboot rozgar ki shumaraat aur daimi istehqaq ko ishaarat karta hai. Ye musbat maeeshati nazar ke demand ko taqwiyat deti hai hari currency ke liye, jo USDJPY jor se buland dabao mein daal deta hai. Isi tarah, Japanese yen ki performance apne gharelu iqtisadi factors ke sath sath global market dynamics se bhi mutasir hoti hai. Japan ka export-led maeeshat global trade trends se mazbut tor par jura hota hai, khaaskar is ke trading partners jese ke United States aur China ke sath. In mukhtalif waqiaat ka asar in ahem trading talluqat par hosakta hai aur yen ki qeemat par khaas asar daal sakta hai

USD/JPY Market Overview

USD/JPY taapar 151.28 ke qareeb chal raha hai, jabke traders Yen ko barhawa dene ke liye japaani market ki mogheebat ke darmiyan ehtiyaat dikha rahe hain Ye hesitancy amreeki dollar aur japaani yen ke darmiyan taqat ka moatal tajarba hai, jahan market shirakatdaar kisi bhi wazahat ke alaamat ko qareebi tor par nigrani kar rahe hain jo tabdeeli ke nishaanat ko asar andaz kar sakti hain

USD/JPY Bunyadi Tahlil

US Q4 GDP Growth Umeedein Se Zyada Amreeki maeeshat mazbooti ka izhar karti hai, jaisa ke chauthey mahine ke Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ki taqatwar 3.4% ke ittehad se umeedein se zyada hai Ye musbat rawayya maeeshati phailao mein madadgar asraat ko zahir karta hai, jo ke barhate hue consumer kharch, karobari sarmayakari aur export activities shamil hain Aise mazboot GDP figures amreeki maeeshat ke asal maddah ko aik tasdiq faraham karte hain, jo global uncertainities ke darmiyan investors ko itminan dete hain

Jobless Claims aur Consumer Sentiment Issi doran, jobless claims aur consumer sentiment jaise indicator bhi amreeki maeeshat ke buhati haalat ki dastan bayan karte hain Jobless claims kam rehne par kamyaab mazdoor market ki alamat hain, jo ke sarmayakari aur kam layoffs ke zareya se mustaqil hiring ko shamil karte hain Mazeed, consumer sentiment buland rehta hai, jo ke GDP growth ka ahem hissa consumer kharch ko barhawa deta hai Ye indicators mil kar ek mustaqbil ke liye amreeki maeeshat ki behtareen umeedon ki alamat hain, jo ke investors aur policy makers ke darmiyan umang ko barhawa dete hain

Fed Governor Waller Ka Hawkish Nazariya Iske ilawa, Federal Reserve Governor Waller ke hali halaat ne maali dairaon mein guftaguon ko uksaya hai Waller ka hawkish nazariya tanzeem ko mil kar inflationary pressures ka mustaqil samna karne ki ahmiyat ko izhar karta hai, jo ke mustaqbil ke interest rate adjustments ke mutalliq tawaqoat par asar daal sakta hai Mustaqbil ke inflationary khatron ko roknay ki zyada asardar monetary policy ki tawajjo mukhtalif assets aur investment strategies ke liye ahem hai, jo ke investors ko apni tawaqo aur khatron ka jaiza naye andaz mein dene par majboor karta hai

Technicay Nigaarani Ke Sath Tijarat Ki Tadbeer

Aaj, amreeki dollar ke baray mein mushkilat se bawajood, USD/JPY tabadla dar tabah reh gaya, ek tang range ke andar reh gaya 27 March ko, is asasa ki qeemat ko shadeed tor par gira hua tha, jabke do lambay bearish candles ke naqshaakar ban gaye thay Magar, currency pair is niche ka rukh palatne mein koshish kar raha hai Is ke ilawa, do Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) ab qeemat se oopar mojood hain, jo ke mumkinah resistance levels ko zahir karte hain

H4 chart ki taraf dekhte hue, USD/JPY ki qeemat EMA-34 aur EMA-50 lines se sahara hasil karti rahi hai Magar, sellers qeemat par dabao daal rahe hain, jo ke kisi bhi naye ooper chalne ki taqat ko mushkil bana raha hai Agar qeemat in EMA support lines ke neeche giregi, to yeh lambe doran ke niche ke durust hone ka nishaan ho sakta hai, jo ke hamein selling opportunities ka shor karna chahiye

Conversely, agar qeemat 151.85 ke resistance level ko paar kar leti hai, to yeh market sentiment ka tabadla ki nishaan de sakti hai Aise halaat mein, hum apni tijarat ki strategy ko kharidi positions ko pasand karte hue tabdeel karenge, aur umeed karenge ke USD/JPY tabadla dar ke rate mein mazeed ooper ki taraf taraqqi hogi

Japan ke statistics bureau ne riport di hai ke Japan ka saalana qaumi istemal shuda shehri mulki maheenati shahkaar index tezi se barh raha hai - pehle ki riport mein 2.2% ke mukablay mein ab ye 2.8% tak pahunch gaya hai. Ye naye taraqqi ke aasar halqa-e-aabaiyat ko gehra kar raha hai aur Japan ki maeeshat ke ahem pehlu ko numaya kar raha hai. Bank of Japan ke pasandida tanqeedi nishaan, jo taza products ko shamil nahi karta, ab bhi tezi se barh raha hai. Pehle ki reading 2.2% thi, lekin ab ye 2.8% tak pahunch gaya hai. Ye taraqqi daromadar ko markazi bank ki nigaahon par daal rahi hai aur mukhtalif sarmayadari intizamaat par asar andaz ho sakti hai.



Markazi bank ko is taraqqi ko dekhte hue maheenati daab ka samna karne ka darr hai. Agar ye shahkaar index aur nishaan taraqqi jaari rakhte hain, to Bank of Japan ko apni qarz daromadari ka daab barqarar rakhne ke liye interest daro ko musbat daraje par rakhne ki ijaazat de sakti hai. Ye kadam Japan ki maeeshat ko barqarar rakhne ke liye zaroori hai, lekin sath hi sath ye ek chunauti bhi hai, kyun ke ye zyada se zyada 2% had tak barhne wala hai, jo Bank of Japan ke liye bebaak stance ko dikhata hai.



Is ke ilawa, Japanese hukoomat currency market mein dakhal kar rahi hai taake yen ke mawazna ko barqarar rakh sake aur maeeshat ko hifazat mein madadgar sabit ho. Yen ki qowat ko barqarar rakhna ahem hai, kyun ke ye Japan ki maeeshat aur tijarat ke liye zaroori hai. In tamaam taraqqi ke aasar se, Japani hukoomat aur Bank of Japan ko maeeshat ko hifazat mein madadgar aur mustahkam banane ke liye mukhtalif qadam uthane ki zaroorat hai. Tasalsul se mukhtalif siyasi aur maali policyon ke mustand hain, taake Japan ki maeeshat ko taraqqi aur mustahkamgi hasil ho sake.

USD/JPY currency pair ka urooj raftar ke trading session tak jari rehna, jo ke pehle bhi zikar kiya gaya tha, aik ahem tajziya hai jis par traders ko nazar rakhni chahiye. Jab ek currency pair tang haddiyon mein harkat karta hai, yani ke ek urooj ki taraf badhta hai, toh yeh darust hai ke is mein mazbooti hai aur dono rukh, yaani ke bullish aur bearish, mein trading ke imkaanat mojood hain. Hal hi mein, US Dollar aur Japanese Yen ke darmiyan USD/JPY currency pair ki movement mein izafa hua hai. Yeh tasdeeq karta hai ke is waqt market mein taqat hai aur traders ko mukhtalif opportunities milti hain. Is currency pair ka urooj raftar ke trading sessions tak jari rehna, jo ke market ki liquidity aur performance ko asar andaz kar sakta hai, ek wazeh tajziya hai.



Is hafte, ek aur ahem maamla jo traders ko dekhna hoga, wo hai US Federal Reserve ki pasandida mahangi ki reading. Federal Reserve ka faisla currency pairs ki movement ko directly influence karta hai, khaaskar USD/JPY jaise popular pairs par. Agar Federal Reserve mahangi ko barhaane ya kam karne ka faisla karta hai, to isse USD/JPY pair ki movement par gehra asar pad sakta hai. Is se pehle, chhuttiyan bhi aane wali hain jo market ki liquidity aur overall performance par asar daal sakti hain. Chhuttiyan aam tor par trading volumes mein kami laati hain aur market volatility mein izafa hota hai. Traders ko chhuttiyon ke doran bhi cautious rehna chahiye aur market trends ko dhyaan se dekhna chahiye.



Uski wajah se, traders ko current market conditions aur upcoming events par nazar rakhni chahiye. Is waqt, USD/JPY currency pair ke movement par mukhtalif factors asar daal rahe hain, aur traders ko in sab ko samajhna aur unke mutabiq trading karna hoga. Aakhir mein, currency trading hamesha risk ke saath juda hota hai aur traders ko apni strategies ko monitor karte rehna chahiye. Market ke latest updates aur analysis ko dhyaan se padhkar, traders apne trading decisions ko informed taur par lenge aur behtar results achieve karenge.

USD/JPY H4 Chart

H4 chart par USD/JPY currency pair ki halat ka jaiza lene mein, haal hi mein 151.386 ke sahara darja par hone wali trading activity ka khaas zikr hai Khaas tor par, seller positions ka safai ho raha tha, jis ke sath bechnay ka volume mein izafa bhi tha Magar, jab ke kuch buyers ka bhi amal tha, unka mojudgi itni zabardast nahi thi jitna ke umeed thi Ye manzar ek mumkin downside momentum ka tasawwur pesh karta hai, khaas tor par haal hi mein dekhi gayi significant girawat aur us ke baad bechne ka volume mein izafa Is ke bawajood, market mein bhi kuch buyers ka noticeable influx tha, jo ke ek mukhtalif radubud ya sentiment ka mukhaffaf honay ka zahir karta hai Magar, 151.98 par mazidat ka muqabla ho raha hai, jo ke foran bullish breakthrough ke liye aik challenge ban raha hai Kul mila kar, USD/JPY pair ki mojooda qeemat ka amal bearish aur bullish quwaton ke darmiyan ek jhalki hai, jahan ahem sahara aur muqabla darjah aasri radubud ko shakal dete hain Traders karobaar aur bechne ke volume ke darmiyan ka khel nigrani kar rahe hain, sath hi ahem technical levels ko bhi, potential trading opportunities ke liye

Traders behtareen nazar rakh rahe hain kisi bhi tajurbaat mein US dollar index market ke, jo ke risk ki hawas aur is ke baghair, currency market dynamics ko mutasir kar sakte hain Ab USD/JPY ko volume hasil karne ke liye jari rakhna jari hai taake is ke impulsive ooperi harkat jari rahe Waqt to janib darjan ka saath deta hai, jab ke upar ke taar ki lambai barhne se mazeed barhne ki zimmedari barh jati hai Aakhri mein, jab ke USD/JPY pair ahem sahara aur muqabla darjah ke qareeb chal raha hai, traders ko mustaqbil ke market shorat aur bahri asraat ke muamlat mein mutaasir aur adapt karne par tawajjo deni chahiye, jaise ke energy market dynamics, jo ke kisi bhi raaste mein sentiment ko badal sakti hain

Market mein aam tor par samjha jata hai ke do nateejay mumkin hain: izafa ya kami, is liye 50-50 ratio maqbool rehta hai. Magar, USD/JPY jodi hamesha apni khas dynamics ko amal mein laati hai. Main is waqt ke mahaul ke liye teen ahem sawalon ko pesh karna chahunga: 1. Kya jodi mazeed kami ka samna karegi? 2. Kya ye 151.90 ke ooperi shetra ko dobara hasil kar sakti hai? Haal mein, na sirf trading mein balki intizam bhi karne ka zyada shauq nahi hai. Lekin, teesra sawal uthata hai: 3. Agar keemat 151.94 tak pohanchti hai, to ye is shetra ka pehla imtehan nahi hoga, jo is darje ki farokht ki reliability ke mutaliq shak-o-shubaat paida karta hai. Shayad yahan dollar-yen jodi ki khasiyatien ka khail hai.
Ye zahir hai, bina Japan Bank ke dakhal ke, ke USD/JPY 146.55 ka qarz ko neeche girega aur 146.48 ka minimum update karayega, shayad kafi zyada farq se. Magar, yeh gawahi dena mushkil hai ke jari haftay se zyada arse tak mustaqil range, peelay bullish 151.57-151.07 mein, junubi sudhar ka jari rakhay ga. Mumkin hai ke is martaba nishana upri haftay ke Bollinger ke qareeb 153.50+ mein mojood ho, phir wahan se neeche utaray. Lekin, jab tak peelay NKZ ke uper ittehad mojood na ho, nishana hari NKZ 147.38-146.87 ka rehta hai, jo 146.55 ke qarz ke qareeb hai, jo 141+ ilaqay ki taraf raasta ban sakta hai. Main samajhta hoon ke humein 151.95 ke muqam par mazeed izafa ka intezar karna chahiye.
Salah karta hoon kharidain, magar stops ko zyada qareeb na rakhein, kyun ke brace tezi se harkat karti hai. Doosri taraf, agar hum stochastik par nazar dalen, to yeh musbat nazar aata hai aur 50 muqam ke oopar trade kar raha hai, jo kharidaron ko favor karta hai, aur yeh kharidaron ko attract kar sakta hai. Yeh sab moment ke liye hai. Umeed hai ke yeh hamare liye faida mand sabit hoga, aur apne raay-e-amal humare saath zaroor share karen.

Forex market mein USDJPY jodi ke shandar istehkaam ka nazara aaj kal behad dilchasp hai. Kal ke khabron ke bawajood, bullish jazbat ab bhi mustaqil hain aur market ka kaar amal buland mizaaj barqarar hai. 151.00 ka aham darja traders aur investors ke liye ahem hai, jo ke is jodi ki istehkaamiyon mein ek ahem point hai. Is behtareen performance ke peechay kuch mukhtalif wajohat hain, jinmein se ek hai dono United States aur Japan mein jaari maali sehatyabi ke koshishat. United States ki Federal Reserve ki koshishat ke sath ke maali policies aur mazboot maali indicators, United States dollar ko Japanese yen ke khilaf mazboot karte hain. Isi tarah, Japan ki maali afzaish ko amal se parakhta aur maali sulsilay ke zariye amal se faraham ki gayi maddat bhi yen ko taraqqi dene mein madadgar sabit ho rahi hai.



United States ke maali sehatyabi mein mukhtalif imkaanat hain jo USDJPY jodi ke liye sabaq amoz sabit huay hain. Is doraan, Federal Reserve ki koshishat aur maali policies ka yakeen, sath hi mazeed mazboot maali indicators, dollar ko yen ke muqablay mein mazeed taraqqi dene mein madadgar sabit huay hain.
Japan ki taraf se bhi maali sehatyabi ki nashonuma, mukhtalif maali sulsilay aur amal se faraham ki gayi maddat yen ko taraqqi dene mein ahem role ada kar rahi hai. Japan ke maali sulsilay aur behtareen afzaish ne yen ko mazbooti di hai aur isne USDJPY jodi ke liye ek mazboot asas faraham kiya hai. Is waqt, traders aur investors ko USDJPY jodi ke istehkaam ko ghor se dekhna chahiye aur maali policies, maali sulsilay aur mukhtalif geo-political factors par nazar rakhni chahiye. Halanki, bullish trend jari hai, lekin market ki tabdeeliyon ka bhi ehtimaam zaroori hai. Maali sehatyabi ke mukhtalif asar aur samrajyaat ki maali policies ki tabdeeliyan is jodi ke darust mizaj par asar andaz ho sakti hain.

USDJPY H4 TIME FRAME


USD/JPY currency pair ka 151.31 ke sath darusti se barhna aik aham maqam hai jo kay aksar logon ke liye kafi ahem hota hai. Yeh maqam aik mazi mein darust sabit hua hai aur aik mutasir raftar ke saath chal raha hai. Is waqt, is maqam ki wajah se market mein bharak utha hai aur log is line ko dhyan mein rakhte hue trading karte hain.Is maqam ki barhti hui ahmiyat mein kuch aham wajohat shamil hain. Pehli bat, yeh aik markazi maqam hai jo kay market ke dynamics ko samajhne mein madadgar sabit hota hai. Jab market is level tak pohanchta hai, to traders ka dhyan is par zyada hota hai aur woh is darusti ko samajhne ki koshish karte hain.





Is darusti se barhne ki wajah se, market mein tezi ya mandi ka rukh tabdeel ho sakta hai. Traders is maqam par mukhtalif trading strategies istemal karte hain, jaise ke breakout trades ya trend-following strategies, taake wo market ke is ahem maqam par faida utha sakein.Is maqam ki ahmiyat ko samajh kar, traders apne trades ko is darusti ke aas paas rakhte hain aur is maqam ko trading decisions mein shamil karte hain. Is tarah se, 151.31 ke sath darusti se barhna USD/JPY currency pair ke liye ek ahem tajziya ka hissa ban jata hai. Is waqt, is maqam ki wajah se market mein bharak utha hai aur log is line ko dhyan mein rakhte hue trading karte hain. Is maqam ki barhti hui ahmiyat mein kuch aham wajohat shamil hain. Pehli bat, yeh aik markazi maqam hai jo kay market ke dynamics ko samajhne mein madadgar sabit hota hai. Jab market is level tak pohanchta hai, to traders ka dhyan is par zyada hota hai aur woh is darusti ko samajhne ki koshish karte hain.

GBP/JPY Pair Ka Jaaiza

Pichle paanch musalsal trading sessions ke doran, GBP/JPY currency pair, ya'ni British pound Japanese yen ke khilaaf, nafaa asani se hasil karne wale farokht ke amal ka shikaar raha, jo intehai barh chuka tha, khaaskar Japanese afseeron ke ishaare ke baad ke exchange rates ko nigrani mein rakhne aur kisi bhi waqt bhaari jhatakne ke imkaan ko rokne ki sambhavna ke baare mein. GBP/JPY pair ke farokht ke amal ne 190.50 ke darja tak pohanch gaya, jabke tajziya likhne ke waqt 191.00 ke darja ke qareeb qaim ho gaya. Currency pair ki haal ki kamaaiyan 193.52 ke muqablay ke darje tak pohanchi, jo ke saalon ke aakhri darja tha, aur us waqt mein aksar maine currency pair ko farokht karne ki tajweez ki.

Main ab bhi pasand karta hoon ke har barhtay hue darje se GBP/JPY pair ko bechun, khaaskar 192.00 aur 193.60 ke resistance darjat ke oopar, baghair kisi khatre ke. Daily chart ke tajziye ke mutabiq, currency pair 188.00 ke darje tak ja raha hai, jisse mojooda aam trend toot gaya hai. Aaj, currency pair British ke ahem nataij ka jawab dega, sath hi yeh bhi dekha jayega ke investors kitni himmatwazi ke saath le sahara lena chahte hain.

Maeeshati pehlu aur Bank of England ki siyasat ke mustaqbil ke hawale se. Britain mein ma’ashi fa’alat mein ek izafa nazar a raha hai, jo ke mustaqil tanqeed ke sath mil kar, yeh darust karta hai ke Bank of England interest rates ko mid-year se pehle nahi kam karegi. Yeh BCA Research ki daryaft hai, jo ke yeh zikar kiya ke Britain ka ma’ashi hairat index 2024 mein tezi se barha, jo ke mid-February mein -54 se -1.7 tak pohanch gaya tha.

Is hawale se, BCA Research ke ma’eeshati dan Ruqaya Ibrahim kehtay hain: “United Kingdom se jari hone wale taaza ma’ashi daleelat yeh darust karti hai ke ma’ashi haalaat haal hi mein mustaqim ho gaye hain.” “Mehangi ka saholat awam ke kharche ko sahara deta hai.”

To Bank of England ne May mein interest rates kam karne ka imkaan hai, peson ki market pricing ke mutabiq. Investors ko lagta hai ke interest rate mein 20% tak ka izafa ho sakta hai, jo ke European Central Bank ya US Federal Reserve se milne wale ek mawafiq amal ke imkaan se zyada hai. Market June mein interest rate mein 80% ka izafa dekhti hai aur kam ka pura daam August tak ke liye pricing hai.

Bank of England ki siyasat ke muzakirat ke baad is waqt, early interest rate cuts ke imkaanat tezi se barh gayi, jismein do Monetary Policy Committee ke members ne mazeed interest rate barhane ke votes chhode. Bank ne ilan kiya ke bina mehngai ko sulghaaye baghair woh interest rates ko kam kar sakta hai.

Pound kam hua aur UK bond yield bhi gir gaye iske nateejay mein. Agar BCA research sahi hai, aur bank ma’ashi taleem ke doosre hisse mein interest rates kam karne ki koi luxry nahi rakhta, toh sterling mein izaafa aur bond ke daam girne ke imkaanat barh jayenge. (Halankeh, BCA ke analysts sterling ke izaaf ke imkaanat par kafi kam bharosay rakhte hain.) BCA ke European investment analysts ke mutabiq bhi kehte hain ke “mustaqil” ma’ashi maeeshat ke saath, Britain mein zyada se zyada muntakhib ma’ashi data releases, “Bank of England ko ma’ashi taqazo mein rahne ke liye pehla adha saal market ko ek interest rate cut ke zariye ek dhuul bhari taaza dhamaka dena se rokega.” “.

Bhut se ma’eeshati dan samajhte hain ke August mein interest rate cut zyada mumkin hai. Is beech, Bank of England ke Catherine Mann ne kaha ke market zyada taizi se interest rate cuts ka intezar kar rahe hain. Mann ne kaha ke markets “shayad thora santusht honge” ke bank interest rates ko kitna lamba samay tak qaim rakhega. Unhone yeh wazahat ki ke Britain mein mua'ashiat ke dinamike amreca aur eurozone ke mukable mein mazboot hain, jo ke yeh mushkil bana deta hai ke bank European Central Bank aur Federal Reserve se aage nikle ya nahi jab baat interest rates kam karne ki aati hai.

BCA Research ke mutabiq, UK economic surprise index ki izafa ki kei wajahon mein se ek, March mein manufacturing PMI ka 2.4 darja barhna hai, jo 49.9 par pohanch kar 20 mah ke buland darja tak pohanch gaya.

Services PMI thori si kam hui hai 53.8 se 53.4 tak, lekin 6 mahine se zyada samay tak wo 50 se kam reading ke baad bhi barqarar hai. Is doran, March ke mahine ki rozana retail sales report ne ek musbat hairat dene wala nateeja diya, jisse maloom hota hai ke retail sales volumes ne apni pehli saalana izafa kiya hai, 2% saalana izafa kar ke, jisey ke ittefaq ki tareef hai ke ghataawat ka dhaar tezi se barhne ki dafa 7% se 14% tak izafa hoga. Mehngai ke samne, BCA kehti hai ke jabke keemat ki dabaavaiyat mamooli hain, magar woh buland hain. Khidmaat mehngai, aik androoni ke

Jodi ko ab mukhtalif aqalmandi ka asar dikh raha hai, jo mazeed izafa ki mumkinat ki daleel hai. Maali tajziya ke daira mein, mukhtalif raye aksar sehat mand guftagu ko taraqqi deti hai aur market dynamics mein qeematmand tanazur faraham karti hai. Ek aisa waqia hal hi mein waqi hua jab Valentin Marinov, Credit Agricole Bank mein ek qadarmand Forex analyst, ne mukhtalif market feham se mazboot US dollar ka satha barhane ka himmat afza qadam uthaya.
Marinov ki stance muta'arif khayalat ke khilaaf hai, jo ke maali samaji mein bohot se logo ki taraf se qaayam hai. Halankeh bohot se anaylst mukhtalif wajoohat ki wajah se dollar ke mansoobay ko kamzor samajhte hain, lekin Marinov apni guftagu mein paigham ko saabit kar rahe hain ke dollar ke hosla saazi saal bhar qaim rahegi. Unka yeh rawayya shayad ma'asharti indicators aur qoumi aur quomi siyasati aur ma'ashi tabdeelon ke tajziya se moorakhib hai. Ameriki Federal Reserve ki maali siyasat, global tajarat dynamics aur saabiq janibdaar dastawezon ke liye sarmaya daron ke dilchaspi ke asraat Marinov ke mukhtalif nazarie ka bunyadi husool hai.

Mazeed, Marinov ki manzar aam tor par global markets ke mutasirah raabton ka jayeza hai. Shayad unhe umeed hai ke dosray ilaqaat jese Europe ya Asia mein ma'ashi be-yaqeeniyat US dollar ke liye behtareen currency banne ki mukhtalif doron mein barkat se zyada demand barhaye gi.

Mager, ahem hai ke Marinov ke tajziyat ke khilaaf bhi mukhalifeen hain. Masalan, Wells Fargo ne jari kiya hai ke jari rahein ki hawa ke jumla mein chal rahe inflation ki shadeed haalat ke asraat ko mukhtalif saboot ke tor par rakha hai. Bank ke analysts kehte hain ke mahangai ke dabao dollar ke kharidari quwat ko kamzor kar sakte hain, jisse dollar ki qeemat dusri currencies ke mukable mein kamzor ho sakti hai.

Magar phir bhi, Marinov ke mukhtalif raye se mukhtalif aqalmandi ki tajziya aur mustaqbil ke hawale se mahram mukhtalif tafreeh hai. Ek mahool mein jahanat ka aghaz jarahi hai jo darusti aur tazad ki manind mozu ko ehsaas karti hai. Ek mohtajazi dunya mein, jahan har waqt ki tezi aur tabdeel hoti hai, Marinov ke jese mukhtalif awazat hamein zaruriyati soch aur azaad tajziya ki ahmiyat ka ehsas karati hain.

Sarmaya dari karte hue logon aur market mein hissa lene walo ko apne tajziyon ke faislon ke liye mukhtalif nazarie shamil karne ki zarurat hai, har dawa ki bunyad par apni khatarnaakchayi aur sarmaya dari maqasid ke mawazan ki tafseelat. Jabkeh ikhtilaafi raye faraham karne walay ahem tajziyat ke lazmie darajat faraham karti hain, inhein mustaqil auratokhari tajziyat ke tajziya faraham kar sakti hai.

Akhri taur par, Valentin Marinov ke is saal mazeed taqatwar dollar ke lehaz se khatir awwal raaye ek rehai hai consensus view se, jo ke maali samajh ke andar kafi aafiyat dikhata hai. Jab investors be yaqeen aada mein chal rahe hain, to mukhtalif nazarie ko shamil karne se faida uthana unke faislon ko behtar banane aur mustaqbil ke raaste mein khatraat ko kam karne mein madad faraham karta hai.

Ek 151.80 ke range ka jhoota breakout pehle hi ho chuka hai aur iske baad, hum dhire dhire girte ja rahe hain aur trading range ka breakout 150.95 par ho raha hai. Jab hum 150.95 ke range ko tod lete hain aur iske neeche jam jate hain, to yeh ek bechnay ka signal hoga. 151.85 ka jhoota breakout ijazat hai aur aise breakout ke baad, girawat jari rahegi. Abhi ke hisaab se, girawat jari rahegi aur 151.00 ke range ko todna zaroori hai. 151.35 ke range mein trading hai aur wahan se girawat jari rahegi. 151.80 ke trading range ke breakdown ke baad, mazid taqwiyat jari rahegi. Haqeeqat mein, 151.58 ke range mein ek trade gap hai aur jab hum ise tod lein ge, to girawat jari rahegi. Market mein jo izafa ho raha hai, woh ek theek karne wala izafa ke baraabar hai. Iske baad bhi, USD/JPY ko bechna behtar hai. Abhi ke hisaab se, humein shayad thoda sa oopar ka impulse mil sakta hai, lekin iske baad bhi girawat jari rahegi. Chhote sa oopar ka impulse ke baad, jaise ki 151.95 ke range tak, girawat jari rahegi. 150.88 ke trading range ka breakout aur uske neeche jam jana ek bechnay ka signal hoga. 150.50 ke range ko todna mumkin hai, jahan trade kiya ja raha hai, phir uske neeche keemat jam jane ke baad, girawat mazid jari rahegi. Theek karne ke baad, girawat jari rahegi. Abhi tak 151.80 ke upar uthna mumkin nahi hai, jo kehta hai ki wahan mazboot rukawat hai, jahan se bechna behtar hai