gbp/usd

Hello, dost! Umeed hai aapka trading din acha guzray!

GBP/USD pair mujhe badhati hui drawdown mein le ja rahi hai. Dekhna hoga ke bulls kab tak control mein reh sakte hain, khaas kar FOMC minutes ke aanay se pehle jo ke aakhri meeting ke hain.

Kal ki upward movement ke baad, GBP/USD pair ne 4-hour chart par aik naya local high hasil kiya, jo ke 1.3050 par peak kiya. Yeh abhi bhi 1.30 ke significant round number ke upar trade kar raha hai, jis ne bullish sentiment ko mazboot kiya hai. Is key level ke breach hone par bohot se traders apni positions aur priorities ko dobara se evaluate karte hain.

Lekin recent wave ke peak par, 4-hour chart par kuch indecisive candles nazar aa rahi hain, aur indicators ek possible reversal ka ishara de rahe hain. Abhi ke liye sab se zyada mumkin scenario yeh lagta hai ke price 1.2947 ke support level ki taraf pullback kare. Humein dekhna hoga ke yeh level ke aas paas price kaise behave karti hai. Agar bears price ko 1.2947 ke neeche dhakel dete hain, jo ke 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ke saath align karta hai, toh hum ek lambi downward movement dekh sakte hain jo ke trading range ke lower boundary ya 1.2831 ke support level ko target karegi. Yeh ek significant bearish trend ki taraf le ja sakta hai.

Dosri taraf, agar GBP/USD 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ke upar apni position ko barqarar rakhta hai, toh hum mazeed upward movement dekh sakte hain aur recent local high ka dobara test ho sakta hai. Mojooda surat-e-haal yeh suggest karti hai ke traders ko hoshiyar rehna chahiye aur in key levels ke aas paas ki price action ke mutabiq apni strategies ko adjust karna chahiye.

Summary:
- Current Price Action: GBP/USD ne haal hi mein 1.3050 ka local high maara hai aur 1.30 ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo ke bullish outlook ko mazboot karta hai.
- Technical Indicators: 4-hour chart recent move ke top par indecision dikha raha hai, aur indicators ek potential reversal ka ishara de rahe hain.
- Support Level: Dekhna hai ke pullback 1.2947 ke support level par hota hai ya nahi. Agar yeh level break hota hai, toh ek gehri girawat ho sakti hai, jo shayad 1.2831 ko target kare.
- Resistance Level: Agar price 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ke upar rehti hai, toh mazeed upward movement aur naye highs ki tawaqo ki ja sakti hai.

Market ke reaction ko support level par nazar rakhain aur apni trading strategy ko ussi ke mutabiq adjust karne ke liye tayyar rahain

GBPUSD currency pair ke M15 chart ko dekh rahe hain, usme aapne dekha ke linear regression channel ka upward slope hai, jo ke buyers ki strength ko indicate karta hai. Aapke trading plan ke mutabiq, aap ne niche wale channel border par purchase ki opportunity identify ki hai, jo ke 1.27575 par hai. Aapka plan hai ke jab market is level tak aaye, to aap purchases consider karenge. Phir aap market ke 1.27797 level tak grow karne ka wait karenge, jahan correction hone ki ummeed hai. Agar correction lower border tak aaye, to aap wahan se phir se purchase karenge. Lekin agar lower border break ho jaye, to aapko purchases cancel kar deni chahiye aur further fall ko consider karna chahiye.

Aap M15 chart ke signals ko dekh kar purchases karna chahte hain, jab market lower border se bounce kare aur grow ho. Upper border par sales bhi consider ki ja sakti hain, lekin aapke liye zyada important entry lower border se hai. Aapke H1 chart ka analysis bhi bullish trend ko indicate karta hai, jo ke aapke M15 chart ke purchases ke signal ko support karta hai. Isliye, aap lower border 1.27472 se buy karna chahte hain aur target 1.28112 set karna chahte hain. Agar price 1.28112 tak pahunchti hai, to aapko correction hone ki ummeed hai. Agar lower border 1.27472 ko downward break kar diya jata hai, to ye bearish signal hoga, aur aapko apne trading plan ko revise karna padega aur market situation ko phir se evaluate karna padega. Aaj United States producer prices ke statistics publish honge, jo ke currencies ke movements ko influence kar sakte hain, khaaskar agar aap consumer prices ke statistics ki announcement se pehle market me enter karna chahte hain. Lekin, asliyat main fluctuations kal American session ke start aur price growth data ke publication ke baad hi shuru honge.

Disappointing US economic data release, including weaker-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI aur non-farm payrolls ke baad, market sentiment Federal Reserve ke more aggressive interest rate cuts ko anticipate kar raha hai. Yeh expectation greenback par downward pressure daal raha hai, jis se pound sterling boost ho raha hai
GBP/USD mein kal, sellers ne southern correctional movement ka realization nahi kar paya. Thodi si pullback ke baad, ek reversal dekha gaya, jo price ko north ki taraf confident bullish impulse ke saath push kar raha tha. Iska natija ek full bullish candle ka formation tha, jo asani se previous day's high ke upar close hui, accumulating range se breakout ko upside ki taraf signal karti hai. Aaj, buyers ne nearest resistance level 1.28604 tak pohnch gaya hai. Is surat mein, main marked resistance level ke saath saath 1.28938 ke resistance level ko bhi observe karunga.
Jaise ke pehle bhi zikr kiya, in resistance levels ke nazdeek do scenarios samne aa sakte hain. Pehla scenario yeh hai ke price in levels ke upar consolidate kare aur upar ki taraf barhe. Agar yeh plan kaam karta hai, to main expect karunga ke price resistance level 1.29956 ki taraf move kare. Agar price is resistance level ke upar consolidate karti hai, to further northward movement dekhi ja sakti hai, jo resistance level 1.31424 tak pohnch sakti hai. Is resistance level ke nazdeek trading setup se next trading direction ka pata chalega. Northward target ki taraf journey ke dauran southern pullbacks dekhne ko mil sakte hain, jinko main bullish signals dhoondhne ke liye use karunga, support levels ke nazdeek bullish signals dekh kar uptrend ka resumption expect karunga global bullish trend formation ke tehat.
Ek alternative scenario yeh hai ke agar resistance level 1.28604 ya resistance level 1.28938 ko test karte waqt reversal candle formation hoti hai aur downward price movement resume hoti hai. Agar yeh plan implement hota hai, to main price ke wapas support level 1.27399 tak aane ka intezar karunga. Is support level ke nazdeek, main bullish signals dhoondhta rahunga, price increase ki expectation ke saath. Jab ke zyada distant southern targets tak pohnchne ki possibility hai, main filhal is par focus nahi kar raha, kyun ke iska quick realization nazar nahi aa raha.
Summary ke taur par, filhal mujhe local market mein kuch interesting nazar nahi aa raha, lekin agar buyers nearest resistance level ke upar consolidate karne mein kamiyab hote hain, to unka focus zyada distant northern targets ki taraf shift ho sakta hai.

GBP/USD pair ne pullback experience kiya, jisne chaar dinon ki winning streak ko tor diya, kyunki UK aur US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data expectations se neeche raha. Yeh pair 1.2850 level ke neeche gir gaya, jo recent rally ke dauran ek key support zone tha. UK mein CPI inflation July mein 2.2% year-over-year badh gaya, jo forecast 2.3% se thoda neeche tha lekin phir bhi peechle mahine ke 2.0% se upar tha. Core inflation, jo food aur energy jese volatile items ko exclude karta hai, 3.5% se kam ho kar 3.3% ho gaya. Yeh data suggest karta hai ke UK mein inflationary pressures kam ho rahi hain, jisse Bank of England (BoE) apni rate hikes ko aane wale maheenon mein pause kar sakta hai. US mein bhi inflation ne milta julta pattern dikhaya, jahan dono headline aur core CPI expectations se neeche aaye. Is se Federal Reserve ki monetary policy outlook ka dobara andaza lagaya gaya, aur markets ab kam probability de rahi hain ke rate hikes jald hongi. Fed ka focus inflation control se shift hota dikhai de raha hai towards economic growth support, especially jab se recent data ne economic activity mein kuch cooling indicate kiya hai.

Yeh factors GBP/USD pair par downward pressure daal rahe hain. Technical factors ne bhi is decline mein apna role ada kiya, kyunki pair apni position ko 1.2900 level ke upar barqarar nahi rakh saka, jo mid-July se ek critical resistance zone raha hai. Aane wale waqt mein focus UK GDP growth data aur US Retail Sales figures par hoga jo Thursday ko release hongi. Yeh releases dono economies ke economic health ke bare mein further insights provide karengi aur GBP/USD pair ke agle direction ko influence kar sakti hain. Strong GDP growth UK mein pound ko support kar sakti hai, jabke robust US retail sales dollar ko bolster kar sakti hain. Lekin agar data disappoint karta hai, to hum pair mein further downside dekh sakte hain.

Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy:

GBP/USD asset is waqt ek upward trend par hai, after completing a falling wedge pattern, jahan usne support found kiya ascending channel ke lower boundary par. Kal ke New York session ke dauran, US Dollar Index ne dollar ke liye positive pressure create kiya, jisse yeh pair dip kar gaya near the support levels of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) aur 34-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Relative Strength Index (RSI) abhi bhi ek favorable level par hai, jo suggest karta hai ke sellers shayad apni full force exert na kar sakein, aur yeh allow kare buyers ko ke wo control maintain kar sakein aur potentially rising wedge pattern ko complete kar sakein.

Trading Strategy:
Current market conditions aur technical indicators ko madde nazar rakhte hue, GBP/USD mein cautious buying consider ki ja sakti hai, agar pair 1.2850 support level ke qareeb ya neeche trade karta hai. Price agar 1.2900 resistance level ko break karti hai, to next target 1.3042 ke aas paas ho sakta hai. Lekin agar price 1.2850 support level ke neeche sustain nahi karti, to downside risk increase ho sakta hai, aur agle support levels 1.2789 aur 1.2700 ke aas paas dekhe ja sakte hain.

GBPUSD ki movement kafi badi thi, kyun ke ye 100 pips tak move kar gaya. Us waqt candle 1.2765 se 1.2865 tak chal gayi thi, jiski wajah se Wednesday ki market opening pichle mahine se kafi uchi thi.

Agar h1 timeframe se analyze karein, to candle abhi bhi supply area mein 1.2864 ke price par stuck hai. Jab tak ye supply area pass nahi hota, GBPUSD ki movement down hone ka possibility hai. Lekin agar supply area break ho jata hai, to movement continue upward bhi ho sakti hai. Ek doji candle pattern bhi resistance area mein nazar aayi hai, jo aam tor par GBPUSD ki movement ko down bana sakti hai. Agar supply area penetrate hota hai to GBPUSD ka target resistance ke upar, jo 1.2989 ke aas-paas hai, ho sakta hai. Aur agar GBPUSD movement down hoti hai, to support area 1.2684 ki taraf move kar sakti hai.

Ichimoku indicator se analyze karne par, since candle Tenkan Sen aur Kijun Sen lines ke upar hai, GBPUSD ki movement upwards jaane ki trend dikha rahi hai. Ye position indicate karti hai ke trend abhi bhi bullish hai. Indicator ye bhi batata hai ke Wednesday ko GBPUSD ke rise hone ke chances kafi hain, kyun ke candle Kumo ke upar bhi hai, jo indicate karta hai ke upward pressure strong hai.

Lekin stochastic indicator ye show kar raha hai ke GBPUSD overbought hai. Shayad near future mein GBPUSD ki movement gir sakti hai, lekin ye zaroori nahi hai, kabhi kabhi aise position mein price upar bhi ja sakti hai. Point ye hai ke stochastic agar level 20 ko penetrate karta hai, to mujhe cautious rehna hoga kyun ke movement kabhi bhi reverse ho sakti hai. Mere liye aaj GBPUSD ki rise par focus hai.

To conclusion ye hai ke aaj GBPUSD upar jayega agar supply area 1.2868 ko break kar deta hai, aur agar nahi hota to GBPUSD ki movement down ho sakti hai. Ichimoku indicator ke according candle position Tenkan Sen aur Kijun Sen lines ke upar hone ki wajah se, upward movement ke chances abhi bhi bade hain. Isliye, main recommend karta hoon ke buy position tab open karein jab supply break ho jaye. Take profit target ko nearest support 1.2790 par rakh sakte hain aur stop loss ko resistance 1.2880 par place kar sakte hain.

Subah bakhair! Aapka forecast Pound ke growth ke bare mein confirm ho gaya, sab kuch actively grow hua, lagbhag 100 points tak, aur kai important levels ko break kiya. Pehle, unhon ne 1.28026 ka level break kiya, phir jaldi se 1.28394 ki mark tak pohnch gaye, aur phir foran hi 1.28637 ke level tak pohnch gaye. In teen levels ke breakout ne humein descending structure ka breakdown aur quotes ke growth ke possible continuation ke signals diye. Agar hum 1.28637 ke level ke upar consolidate karne mein kamiyab ho jate hain, to hum aagey growth expect kar sakte hain 1.28873 ke level ki taraf. Sellers ke liye, kuch downward form karne ke liye, zaroori hai ke koi reversal model create karein jis par aagey chal kar rely kiya ja sake, jab ke abhi tak upward movement active hai.
GBPUSD H4 Pair:

1- Pound 4-hour chart par actively upper band ke sath move kar raha hai, jab ke dono bands bahar ki taraf khule hue hain, jo ke price growth ke possible continuation ka signal dete hain. Is situation mein hum sirf observe kar sakte hain ke ye signal develop hota hai ya nahi. Agar hum situation ko fractals se evaluate karein, to price ne kal upward nearest fractal ko break kiya aur August 6 ke fractal ke level tak target pohncha, aur phir mazeed aagey barh gaya. Iss waqt, ek naya, qareebi fractal upward form hua hai, jo quotes ke growth ka target hai. Iska breakout aur consolidation price ko July 29 ke fractal tak 1.28873 le jaane ki ijazat dega. Nearest fractal downward door hai, aur price fall ke direction mein rely karne ke liye, naya, qareebi fractal downward ka formation ka intezaar karna padega.

2- AO indicator positive zone mein actively grow ho raha hai, ek naya maximum form hua hai, abhi tak yeh wazeh nahi ke pehla peak kab form hoga, aur isse yeh suggest hota hai ke price growth mazeed continue kar sakta hai.

GBP/USD pair ne haal hi mein interesting dynamics dikhayi hain, khaaskar hourly chart par. 50-day moving average (MA50) ke downward pressure ko break karne ke baad, ab yeh pair 100-day moving average (MA100) se potential resistance ka saamna kar raha hai. Yeh resistance kisi bhi short-term mein significant upward movement ko rok sakta hai, khaaskar jab ke stochastic indicator abhi bhi upward momentum dikhara hai.

Haalan ke current uptrend nazar arahi hai, lekin recent rally ka steep incline yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh momentum shayad sustainable na ho. Market filhal ek uncertainty ki state mein hai aur apni next move ko carefully weigh kar raha hai. Is situation ne ek complex trading environment create kar diya hai jahan yeh pair shayad thodi si southern correction undergo kare, us ke baad shayad apni upward trajectory resume kare. Key resistance level jo dekhne wali hai wo 1.2645 ke aas-paas hai, jo ke pair ke liye ek critical turning point ho sakta hai.

### GBP/USD ke liye Potential Scenarios

**1. Reversal aur Downward Movement:**

Pehli scenario yeh consider karna hai ke agar 1.2580 resistance level par ek reversal hoti hai. Agar is point par reversal candle form hoti hai, toh yeh market sentiment mein shift indicate kar sakta hai, jo shayad downward trend ki resumption ki taraf le jaye. Is scenario mein pair shayad lower support levels ko test kare, khaaskar agar current rally apna momentum sustain karne mein naakam hoti hai.

**2. Upward Movement ka Continuation:**

Dusri taraf, agar GBP/USD pair resistance level 1.2780 ko break karne mein kaamyaab ho jata hai, toh yeh bullish trend ke continuation ko confirm karega. Aisi move market ke pair ko further upward push karne ke liye ready hone ka signal de sakti hai. Is scenario mein, traders ko sustained buying pressure ko dekhna chahiye jo ke pair ko naye highs ki taraf drive kar sakta hai.

### Key Levels Jo Monitor Karni Chahiye

Kal ke price action par nazar daalain, toh pair ne apne kuch gains wapas de diye, jo suggest karta hai ke 1.2689 ke aas-paas resistance abhi bhi ek significant hurdle hai. Agar yeh level dobara test hota hai, toh yeh potential pullback ka sabab ban sakta hai. Lekin, 1.2600 ke aas-paas local Bollinger Band ke qareeb support bhi significant hai. Agar yeh pair is support level ke upar hold karne mein naakam hota hai aur is ke neeche break karta hai, toh market mein further downside potential nazar aa sakti hai, jahan targets lower rail 1.2705 ke aas-paas ho sakte hain

GBP/USD pair ne haal hi mein interesting dynamics dikhayi hain, khaaskar hourly chart par. 50-day moving average (MA50) ke downward pressure ko break karne ke baad, ab yeh pair 100-day moving average (MA100) se potential resistance ka saamna kar raha hai. Yeh resistance kisi bhi short-term mein significant upward movement ko rok sakta hai, khaaskar jab ke stochastic indicator abhi bhi upward momentum dikhara hai.

Haalan ke current uptrend nazar arahi hai, lekin recent rally ka steep incline yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh momentum shayad sustainable na ho. Market filhal ek uncertainty ki state mein hai aur apni next move ko carefully weigh kar raha hai. Is situation ne ek complex trading environment create kar diya hai jahan yeh pair shayad thodi si southern correction undergo kare, us ke baad shayad apni upward trajectory resume kare. Key resistance level jo dekhne wali hai wo 1.2645 ke aas-paas hai, jo ke pair ke liye ek critical turning point ho sakta hai.

### GBP/USD ke liye Potential Scenarios

**1. Reversal aur Downward Movement:**

Pehli scenario yeh consider karna hai ke agar 1.2580 resistance level par ek reversal hoti hai. Agar is point par reversal candle form hoti hai, toh yeh market sentiment mein shift indicate kar sakta hai, jo shayad downward trend ki resumption ki taraf le jaye. Is scenario mein pair shayad lower support levels ko test kare, khaaskar agar current rally apna momentum sustain karne mein naakam hoti hai.

**2. Upward Movement ka Continuation:**

Dusri taraf, agar GBP/USD pair resistance level 1.2780 ko break karne mein kaamyaab ho jata hai, toh yeh bullish trend ke continuation ko confirm karega. Aisi move market ke pair ko further upward push karne ke liye ready hone ka signal de sakti hai. Is scenario mein, traders ko sustained buying pressure ko dekhna chahiye jo ke pair ko naye highs ki taraf drive kar sakta hai.

### Key Levels Jo Monitor Karni Chahiye

Kal ke price action par nazar daalain, toh pair ne apne kuch gains wapas de diye, jo suggest karta hai ke 1.2689 ke aas-paas resistance abhi bhi ek significant hurdle hai. Agar yeh level dobara test hota hai, toh yeh potential pullback ka sabab ban sakta hai. Lekin, 1.2600 ke aas-paas local Bollinger Band ke qareeb support bhi significant hai. Agar yeh pair is support level ke upar hold karne mein naakam hota hai aur is ke neeche break karta hai, toh market mein further downside potential nazar aa sakti hai, jahan targets lower rail 1.2705 ke aas-paas ho sakte hain

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast

Pound Sterling buyers unstoppable the against US Dollar amid Fed-BoE policy divergence. GBP/USD zyada gains ki taraf dekh raha hai jabke top-tier US economic data is haftay dominate karne ko tayar hai. Pound Sterling flirts with overbought territory on the daily RSI, ab agay kya hoga? Pound Sterling (GBP) ne apna doosra consecutive weekly gain against the US Dollar (USD) hasil kiya, jab GBP/USD pair March 2022 se apne highest level par pohcha, jo ke 1.3200 se upar tha.

Pound Sterling stands tall jabke US Dollar weak ho gaya hai. GBP/USD ne aik aur zabardast hafta dekha, jab ke UK se koi high-impact economic events nahi aaye. Major ke ird gird positive tone ka sab se bada sabab US Dollar ki apne major rivals ke against lagatar kamzori thi.

Traders ne apni bearish outlooks on the Greenback ko qaim rakha, jab dovish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations Jackson Hole Symposium week mein barh gayi. USD buyers ko Fed ke July meeting ke Minutes aur Chairman Jerome Powell ki speech ke intezar mein back foot par rehna pada.

Risk-averse market environment ke bawajood, US Dollar ko Powell ke appearance se pehle nervousness ke doran safe-haven demand nahi mil saka. Greenback ko aik naya jhatka Wednesday ke din outright dovish Fed Minutes ke release hone ke baad laga.

Zyada tar policymakers ka khayal tha ke "agar data expected line mein aata raha, to agle meeting mein policy ko ease karna theek hoga," Minutes ne kaha. Aagay, Minutes ne kaha ke doosray policymakers ne July meeting mein hi borrowing costs ko kam karne ka irada rakha tha.

Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision ne September ke liye Fed rate cut ko mazid strengthen kiya. US Labor Department ne kaha ke NFP ke period from April 2023 to March 2024 tak ko 818,000 se kam kar diya gaya. Yeh revision takreeban 0.5% ka total downward change represent karta hai.

Week US S&P Global preliminary Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) aur Jobless Claims data ne Thursday ke din dovish policy pivot ke liye bets ko mazid barhaya, jese ke September ke start par policy pivot ki umeed barh gayi thi.

Markets ne 27% probability ko price in kiya ke Fed ke September 17-18 meeting mein 50 basis points (bps) cut ho sakta hai aur 73% chance ke 25 bps reduction hoga, CME Group ke FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq.

Jab traders apne US Dollar longs ko wapas lene lage, GBP/USD ne aik naya 13-mahina high of 1.3130 hit kiya, jo ke strong UK S&P Global preliminary business PMIs ke wajah se bhi tha. UK Manufacturing PMI ne July mein 52.1 se barh kar August mein 52.5 tak improvement dikhayi. Markets ne 52.1 print expect kiya tha. Isi dauran, preliminary UK Services Business Activity Index August mein 53.3 par pohcha, jo ke July ka 52.5 aur expected figure 52.8 tha.

Fed-BoE monetary policy divergence abhi bhi kaam mein tha aur Pound Sterling ke liye tailwind ke tor par kaam kar raha tha, jabke US Dollar thin ice par tha, Powell ke alfaz ke intezar mein.

Powell ne kaha ke waqt aagaya hai ke monetary policy ko adjust kiya jaye aur kaha ke wo labor market conditions mein mazid cooling ko welcome nahi karte. "Hum jo kuch kar sakte hain wo karenge taake ek mazboot labor market ka support ho jese ke hum price stability ke towards progress karte hain," unhon ne mazid kaha. USD ne immediate reaction mein renewed selling pressure ko face kiya, jo GBP/USD ko March 2022 se pehli dafa 1.3200 ke upar chadne ka moka diya.

Aane wala hafta: US growth aur inflation data par nazar

Jackson Hole Symposium week ki volatility ke baad, Pound Sterling traders aik holiday-shortened week mein apni sansain lene ki koshish kar rahe hain.

UK markets Monday ke din Summer Bank Holiday ke liye band raheinge. Us din ke baad, US economic calendar mein Durable Goods Orders feature karega magar data ke value par zyada asar nahi hoga US Dollar aur GBP/USD pair par.

Haftay ka sabse bara highlight hoga second estimate of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report aur core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, jo ke Fed ka preferred inflation measure hai.

Haftay ke pehle hise mein, UK CBI Realized Sales aur US Conference Board Consumer Confidence data kuch trading incentives provide kareinge.

Central banks’ policy expectations, Fed officials ke speeches aur Middle East geopolitical risks ke ird gird ke jazbat GBP/USD price action ko mazid chalate raheinge.

GBP/USD: Technical Outlook

GBP/USD recovery from five-week lows of 1.2665 ne guzishta hafta taqat hasil ki, jab buyers ne previous year-to-date (YTD) high at 1.3045 ko cross karte hue 29-month-high above 1.3200 tak pohch gaye.



Aisa karte hue, Pound Sterling ne tamam key daily Simple Moving Averages (SMA) ke upar jana continue rakha. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) overbought territory mein enter kar gaya, jo ke is waqt near 75 hai.

Overbought conditions ke sath, Pound Sterling traders ek brief correction dekh sakte hain, lekin har pullback ko khareedne ka imkaan rahega jab tak leading indicator 50 level ke upar rehta hai.

GBP/USD ko interim resistance 1.3250 par mil sakta hai, isse pehle ke buyers 1.3300 round level ko target karain.

Agar corrective downside hoti hai, to previous YTD high at 1.3045 pehli contention point hoga, jis ke neeche 1.3000 key level test kiya jayega.

Agar selling momentum intensify hota hai, to 1.2900 level threaten ho jayega, followed by confluence zone around 1.2850. Is level par, 50-day SMA aur 21-day SMA hang karte hain.

Fundamental Aspects

US Dollar (USD) America ka official currency hai, aur aik significant number of doosray mulkon mein 'de facto' currency ke tor par paayi jati hai jahan yeh local notes ke sath circulation mein hoti hai. Yeh duniya ki sab se zyada traded currency hai, jo ke takreeban 88% se zyada global foreign exchange turnover ko apne andar rakhti hai, ya aik average $6.6 trillion per day transactions ke mutabiq, 2022 ke data ke mutabiq. Doosri world war ke baad, USD ne British Pound se world reserve currency ka title hasil kiya. Apni aksar history mein, US Dollar Gold se backed tha, jab tak Bretton Woods Agreement 1971 mein Gold Standard ko khatam nahi kar diya gaya.

Sabse ahem factor jo US Dollar ke value par asar andaz hota hai woh hai monetary policy, jo ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke taraf se shaped hoti hai. Fed ke do mandates hain: price stability (inflation control karna) aur full employment ko foster karna. Iska primary tool in do goals ko achieve karne ke liye interest rates ko adjust karna hai. Jab prices bohot tezi se barh rahi hoti hain aur inflation Fed ke 2% target se upar hota hai, to Fed rates ko barha deta hai, jo ke USD value mein madad karta hai. Jab inflation 2% se neeche gir jata hai ya Unemployment Rate zyada hota hai, to Fed interest rates ko kam kar sakta hai, jo ke Greenback ko neeche le aata hai.

Extreme situations mein, Federal Reserve mazid Dollars print kar sakta hai aur quantitative easing (QE) enact kar sakta hai. QE wo process hai jisme Fed aik stuck financial system mein credit ke flow ko bohot zyada barha deta hai. Yeh aik non-standard policy measure hai jo tab use kiya jata hai jab credit band ho jata hai kyun ke banks ek dusray ko loan nahi deti (out of fear of counterparty default). Yeh aik last resort hota hai jab sirf interest rates kam karna required result hasil nahi kar pata. Yeh Fed ka preferred weapon tha Great Financial Crisis in 2008 ke doran credit crunch ko combat karne ke liye. Is process mein Fed mazid Dollars print karta hai aur unhe US government bonds ko predominantly financial institutions se kharidne ke liye use karta hai. QE aam tor par aik weaker US Dollar ko janam deta hai.

Quantitative tightening (QT) ulta process hai jisme Federal Reserve financial institutions se bonds kharidna band kar deti hai aur apne bonds ke maturing principal ko new purchases mein reinvest nahi karti. Aam tor par yeh US Dollar ke liye positive hota hai.

Pound/Dollar ne is haftay ka ikhtitam ek bullish candle ke sath kiya, jo ke upward trend channel se breakout ki nishani thi. Magar abhi is breakout ko confirm karna thoda jaldbazi hogi, aur mein abhi tak poori tarah mutmain nahi hoon ke yeh channel abhi bhi valid hai. Is waqt short positions open karna munaasib nahi lagta, isliye mein side pe rehna behtar samajhta hoon. Filhal mujhe na to ek wazeh upward trend nazar aa raha hai, na hi koi aisi wajah dikhai de rahi hai ke downward move ko expect kiya jaye.

Hourly chart par indicators abhi bhi upward direction mein hain, lekin Bollinger Band yeh signal kar raha hai ke jo current upward impulse hai, woh khatam honay wala hai aur correction shuru ho sakti hai. Aik lagging indicator bhi local perspective mein reversal ki taraf ishara kar raha hai aur bearish divergence show kar raha hai. Price ne upper Bollinger Band ke upar close kiya, jo ke ek local increase ke baad hua. Aksar is tarah ke moves ke baad nichey ki taraf aik opportunity milti hai.

4-hour chart par indicators bhi poori tarah north ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain, jo ke recent upward movement mein acceleration ko reflect karte hain. Is tarah ka acceleration aksar reversal se pehle hota hai, aur ek lagging indicator already strongly is baat ki taraf ishara kar raha hai ke near future mein reversal aa sakta hai. Isliye, agli hafta ke aaghaz mein, short positions kholne par ghour karna zaroori ho sakta hai.

Pichlay Thursday ko, GBP/USD ne ek significant reversal dekha, jis ne us din ke tamaam gains ko khatam kar diya aur pair 1.3100 level se neeche gir gaya. Yeh reversal, US ke mazid mazboot economic data, khususan S&P Global Composite PMI ke August ke liye better-than-expected results se mutasir tha, jo 54.1 par aaya, jab ke 54.3 ki umeed thi. Yeh growth services sector mein optimism se hui, jab ke manufacturing activity ziada sharp contraction ka shikar hui. Is ke baad US Dollar Index (DXY) 101.00 se barh kar 101.60 par pahunch gaya.

Is strong economic data ke bawajood, US dollar ka future abhi bhi uncertain hai, Federal Reserve ke interest rate cut ke baray mein barhti hue speculation ke wajah se. July FOMC meeting ke minutes se yeh samajh aaya ke kuch policymakers pehle hi borrowing rates kam karne ki sifarish kar chuke hain, aur investors mein yeh confidence barh raha hai ke Fed ab zyada accommodative monetary policy ki taraf ja raha hai. Magar, minutes se yeh bhi pata chala ke "substantial majority" officials ka khayal tha ke agli meeting mein rate cut sirf tab hi appropriate hoga agar economic data us ke mutabiq raha. Recent US data, jese ke total employment mein decline, ne recession ke concerns ko barha diya hai aur rate cut expectations ko mazid fuel kiya hai.

GBPUSD ki movement kafi badi thi, kyun ke ye 100 pips tak move kar gaya. Us waqt candle 1.2765 se 1.2865 tak chal gayi thi, jiski wajah se Wednesday ki market opening pichle mahine se kafi uchi thi.
Agar h1 timeframe se analyze karein, to candle abhi bhi supply area mein 1.2864 ke price par stuck hai. Jab tak ye supply area pass nahi hota, GBPUSD ki movement down hone ka possibility hai. Lekin agar supply area break ho jata hai, to movement continue upward bhi ho sakti hai. Ek doji candle pattern bhi resistance area mein nazar aayi hai, jo aam tor par GBPUSD ki movement ko down bana sakti hai. Agar supply area penetrate hota hai to GBPUSD ka target resistance ke upar, jo 1.2989 ke aas-paas hai, ho sakta hai. Aur agar GBPUSD movement down hoti hai, to support area 1.2684 ki taraf move kar sakti hai.

Ichimoku indicator se analyze karne par, since candle Tenkan Sen aur Kijun Sen lines ke upar hai, GBPUSD ki movement upwards jaane ki trend dikha rahi hai. Ye position indicate karti hai ke trend abhi bhi bullish hai. Indicator ye bhi batata hai ke Wednesday ko GBPUSD ke rise hone ke chances kafi hain, kyun ke candle Kumo ke upar bhi hai, jo indicate karta hai ke upward pressure strong hai.

Lekin stochastic indicator ye show kar raha hai ke GBPUSD overbought hai. Shayad near future mein GBPUSD ki movement gir sakti hai, lekin ye zaroori nahi hai, kabhi kabhi aise position mein price upar bhi ja sakti hai. Point ye hai ke stochastic agar level 20 ko penetrate karta hai, to mujhe cautious rehna hoga kyun ke movement kabhi bhi reverse ho sakti hai. Mere liye aaj GBPUSD ki rise par focus hai.

To conclusion ye hai ke aaj GBPUSD upar jayega agar supply area 1.2868 ko break kar deta hai, aur agar nahi hota to GBPUSD ki movement down ho sakti hai. Ichimoku indicator ke according candle position Tenkan Sen aur Kijun Sen lines ke upar hone ki wajah se, upward movement ke chances abhi bhi bade hain. Isliye, main recommend karta hoon ke buy position tab open karein jab supply break ho jaye. Take profit target ko nearest support 1.2790 par rakh sakte hain aur stop loss ko resistance 1.2880 par place kar sakte hain.

GBP/USD Ka Roman Urdu Mein Technical Analysis

Hello. Pound baghair peechay dekhe barh raha hai. Hum pehle hi 1.30436 ke maximum par pohanch chuke hain, aur humne kisi bhi bari pullback ke baghair lagbhag 380 points ka safar tay kar liya hai. Buyers isi level ke peeche fori tor par majbooti hasil karne mein kamiyaab nahi ho paye, lekin Pound ko jis inertia ke sath aagey barhane mein woh kamiyaab hue hain, isko dekhte hue yeh mumkin hai ke isi level ke peeche mazid consolidation ki koshish ki jayegi. Agar yeh koshish kamiyaab rehti hai, to hum tawaqqo kar sakte hain ke ooper ki taraf movement ka agla hadaf 1.31417 ka level hoga. Sales ke hawale se filhal kuch khaas umeed nahi hai, koi bhi sanjeeda reversal model tyaar nahi hua hai. Aap level 1.29736 par tawajjo de sakte hain; agar iska breakout hota hai aur consolidation hoti hai, to hum 1.29392 ke mark ki taraf ja sakte hain.

**GBP/USD M30 Pair:**

1. Kal Pound ke liye 1.29872 ke level se kharidari ka entry point ka forecast diya gaya tha, jahan se price ne is level ko tor kar pehla target 1.30306 hasil kar liya.

2. Bands ke hisaab se, price bands ke central area mein hai, aur bands khud bhi ek tang horizontal position mein hain. Agar humein price ke barhne ya girne ke liye ek quality signal chahiye, to humein intezaar karna chahiye ke price active tor par upper ya lower band se bahar nikle, aur phir yeh dekhna chahiye ke dono bands bahar ki taraf khulenge ya koi response nahi hoga.

3. AO indicator ne zero mark ko cross kar liya hai, lekin price ke girne ke liye ek quality signal ke liye, humein negative zone mein active acceleration ka intezaar karna chahiye. Agar ulta transition zero se wapas hota hai aur positive area mein active growth hoti hai, to yeh quotes ke barhne ka signal dega.

4. Kharidari ka entry point 1.30306 ke level par ho sakta hai. Price ke breakout aur consolidation ke sath growth ki tawaqqo 1.30652 aur 1.30913 ke marks tak ki jaa sakti hai.

5. Sales ko 1.29872 ke level se consider kiya ja sakta hai. Price ke girne ki tawaqqo 1.29387 aur 1.29132 ke marks tak ki jaa sakti hai

GBP/USD Ka Roman Urdu Mein Technical Analysis
Hello. Pound baghair peechay dekhe barh raha hai. Hum pehle hi 1.30436 ke maximum par pohanch chuke hain, aur humne kisi bhi bari pullback ke baghair lagbhag 380 points ka safar tay kar liya hai. Buyers isi level ke peeche fori tor par majbooti hasil karne mein kamiyaab nahi ho paye, lekin Pound ko jis inertia ke sath aagey barhane mein woh kamiyaab hue hain, isko dekhte hue yeh mumkin hai ke isi level ke peeche mazid consolidation ki koshish ki jayegi. Agar yeh koshish kamiyaab rehti hai, to hum tawaqqo kar sakte hain ke ooper ki taraf movement ka agla hadaf 1.31417 ka level hoga. Sales ke hawale se filhal kuch khaas umeed nahi hai, koi bhi sanjeeda reversal model tyaar nahi hua hai. Aap level 1.29736 par tawajjo de sakte hain; agar iska breakout hota hai aur consolidation hoti hai, to hum 1.29392 ke mark ki taraf ja sakte hain.

**GBP/USD M30 Pair:**

1. Kal Pound ke liye 1.29872 ke level se kharidari ka entry point ka forecast diya gaya tha, jahan se price ne is level ko tor kar pehla target 1.30306 hasil kar liya.

2. Bands ke hisaab se, price bands ke central area mein hai, aur bands khud bhi ek tang horizontal position mein hain. Agar humein price ke barhne ya girne ke liye ek quality signal chahiye, to humein intezaar karna chahiye ke price active tor par upper ya lower band se bahar nikle, aur phir yeh dekhna chahiye ke dono bands bahar ki taraf khulenge ya koi response nahi hoga.

3. AO indicator ne zero mark ko cross kar liya hai, lekin price ke girne ke liye ek quality signal ke liye, humein negative zone mein active acceleration ka intezaar karna chahiye. Agar ulta transition zero se wapas hota hai aur positive area mein active growth hoti hai, to yeh quotes ke barhne ka signal dega.

4. Kharidari ka entry point 1.30306 ke level par ho sakta hai. Price ke breakout aur consolidation ke sath growth ki tawaqqo 1.30652 aur 1.30913 ke marks tak ki jaa sakti hai.

5. Sales ko 1.29872 ke level se consider kiya ja sakta hai. Price ke girne ki tawaqqo 1.29387 aur 1.29132 ke marks tak ki jaa sakti hai

GBPUSD H1 time frame chart par currency pair ka behavior kafi interesting hai, khaaskar subah ke session se. GBPUSD ne upar ki taraf breakout karne ki koshish ki hai, jo bullish momentum ka signal ho sakta hai. Aakhri ghanton mein, pair ne diagonal resistance level ko successfully breach kiya hai, jo ke upar movement ke liye ek significant barrier tha. Yeh breakout ek shuruati indication ho sakta hai ke market sentiment buying ki taraf shift ho raha hai, jo ke naye upward trend ke establishment ki taraf ishara kar sakta hai. Magar, in positive signs ke bawajood, caution zaroori hai isse pehle ke puri tarah se uptrend ko embrace kiya jaye aur long positions commit ki jayein. Diagonal resistance ka breach ek positive technical development hai, jo traders ke liye bullish signal ke taur par interpret kiya jata hai. Aise resistance level ko break karna yeh indicate karta hai ke sellers jo pehle market ko control kar rahe the, unki grip kamzor ho rahi hai, aur buyers ko upper hand mil raha hai. Yeh control ka shift kabhi kabhi naye upward trend ko lead kar sakta hai, jab zyada traders long positions lena shuru karte hain, yeh expect karte hue ke pair aage bhi upar jayegi. Lekin, is potential breakout ko measured perspective se dekhna zaroori hai. Diagonal resistance ka breach hone se sirf yeh confirm nahi hota ke bullish trend sustainable hai. Financial markets mein false breakouts aam hote hain, jahan price temporarily resistance levels ke upar move karti hai aur phir tez reversal ke saath pehle ke trend par wapas aa jati hai. Isliye, additional confirmations dekhna zaroori hai before confidently naye upward trend ko declare karne se.sell limit position open karunga 1.2800 area mein aur agar us area mein rejection ho jata hai toh bearish validation GBP/USD pair pe create ho chuki hai aur phir price apne lowest zone ki taraf girti rahegi H4 timeframe pe. Aur hum TP target 1.2650 area mein set kar sakte hain TP1 ke liye aur agar price aur neeche jati hai toh 1.2600 area TP2 kaam karega.
Phir worst case scenario ko anticipate karte hue, agar price white box area ke upar breakout kar jata hai, toh bullish reversal ka confirmation achi tarah se realize ho chuka hoga, aur phir hume buy position open karni hogi target increase ke sath resistance level 1.2900 pe TP1 aur 1.3050 pe TP2 ke tor pe. Shukriya aapki tawajju ka, guys, jo mere explanation ko suni. Umeed hai ke hum GBP/USD movement pe iss week profit ko optimize kar

GBP/USD currency pair ka jaiza lete hain. Guzishta trading hafta kaafi productive raha, meri khayal se yahan sab khush honge, chahe wo sellers ho ya buyers, kyun ke price ne idhar udhar kaafi movement di, jisse har kisi ko apne points lene ka mauqa mila. Hafte ke pehle hisse mein, market expectably neeche gaya kyun ke upar ek horizontal resistance level 1.2810 ka tha, aur is se do dafa sell karna bhi possible tha aur dono dafa profitable raha. Is se pehle ke price zyada neeche jata, ek dafa phir is level ka test kiya gaya. Phir price neeche atak gaya, aur phir se agle resistance level 1.2732 se sell karne ka mauqa mila. Neeche se buyers ke liye, MACD indicator par ek bullish divergence form hui, jo kuch intezar ke baad upwards work kiya. Phir sab kuch technical aur khubsurat tha - ek rebound hui descending resistance line se seedha mirror level tak, jo decline ke edge par 1.2723 tha. Aur phir is level se upward rebound hua. Sabhi levels aur lines se rebounds hue, aur market ne har jagah kuch dozen points diye. Ye is baat ka illustration hai ke sirf ek direction mein position kholna aur intezar karna sahi approach nahi hai.
Abhi thoda uncertainty hai, price clamped hai. Upar 1.2767 ka ek resistance level aur ek descending line form ho gayi hai. Neeche 1.2723 ka ek support level hai. Aur ye range pound ke liye kaafi chhoti hai. Yahan kuch khas karne layak nahi, shayad yeh sirf positions accumulate karne ke liye ek zone ban jaye aage ki movement ke liye. Aur aap ek side ya doosri side mein tabhi entry consider kar sakte hain jab ye range break ho jaye. Generaly, main neeche ki taraf dekhta hoon kyun ke trend downward hai. Meri soch hai ke price ka target area 1.2611 ka hai, jo daily decline wave ka minimum hai. Aaj economic calendar mein koi important news nahi hai