GBP/USD apni corrective movement Wednesday ko jaari rakhi jab ke Murray level "7/8" 1.2787 se bounce back kiya. Jaise ke hum pehle bhi mention kar chuke hain, British pound buhat zyada overbought aur unreasonably mehnga hai. Pichle kuch dinon mein, British currency bina kisi valid reason ke rise kar rahi thi. Unfortunately, yehi cheez humein aksar dekhne ko milti hai. Humein isse accept karna hoga aur jo situation hai usse profit kamane ki koshish karni hogi.
Abhi ke options kya hain? Pehla option yeh hai ke fundamental aur macroeconomic background ko ignore kar diya jaye. Trades sirf sabse important reports aur events par based ki ja sakti hain, jaise ke inflation ya central bank meetings. Kyun? Kyunke market macro data ka logical response nahi dikha raha. Har report ko pound ke haq mein interpret kiya ja raha hai, jo pair ko support kar raha hai. Yehi baat fundamental events par bhi lagu hoti hai. Lagbhag har roz, Federal Reserve ke representatives baat karte hain, wohi baat repeat karte hain: inflation buhat zyada hai, aur near future mein rate cuts ka koi plan nahi hai. Dussri taraf, UK mein inflation target level ke qareeb aa gayi hai, jis se Bank of England June se apni policy ko ease karna shuru kar sakta hai.
Lekin, yeh mumkin nahi lagta ke hum June mein pehla BoE rate cut dekhenge. Hum yeh maante hain ke central bank ehtiyaat se kaam lega aur jaldi nahi karega. UK mein inflation buhat zyada high rahi hai, to ho sakta hai ke agle kuch mahine mein yeh phir se barh jaye. Lekin, yeh baat koi deny nahi kar sakta ke BoE Federal Reserve se zyada qareeb hai easing ke. Halaanke is saal ke shuruat mein market ne iska ulta socha tha.
Lekin, yeh sab data aur information market sentiment ko bilkul bhi affect nahi kar rahi. British pound waise hi trade kar raha hai jaise Bitcoin, jahan asset sirf isliye rise kar rahi hai ke log isse aur rise hone ki umeed mein khareed rahe hain. GBP/USD pair already 61.8% Fibonacci level ke qareeb pahunch chuki hai, jahan yeh pichle saal kaafi waqt guzari thi. Agar yeh movement jo hum dekh rahe hain ek naye uptrend ki shuruaat hai, to humare liye yeh jawab dena mushkil hai ke agle 3-6-9 mahine ya zyada time tak pound ko kya support karega? Aakhir trend ek local movement nahi hota jo sirf technical reasons se drive ho sakta hai. Trend ek prolonged movement hoti hai jo underlying reasons pe based hoti hai. Agar koi reasons nahi hain, to pound ko upside par kya drive karega?
Lekin, pichle chhe mahine (agar zyada nahi) humein dikhate hain ke currency upar ja sakti hai jab ke sab factors uske decline ko point karte hain. Isliye, hum yeh conclusion pe aaye hain ke technical analysis ko precedence dena chahiye. Ek aur aadhe mahine ke rise ke baad, hum expect karte hain ke pound fall karega, kam se kam ek correction ke taur par. Lekin, ab hum ek correction ke baare mein baat kar sakte hain, jiske baad unfounded uptrend resume ho sakta hai. GBP/USD pair ne moving average ke niche consolidate karne mein struggle kiya. Lekin, hum ab bhi downward movement expect karte hain, lekin British currency ke current paradoxical rise ke saath, humein kaafi der tak wait karna par sakta hai. Kal ka pullback zaroori nahi ke naye downtrend ki shuruaat imply kare. Selling ab bhi zyada relevant hai, kyunke zyada tar factors downside ko point karte hain. Isliye, ab hum selling consider kar sakte hain targets 1.2665 aur 1.2604 par. Ek prolonged rise ke baad, pound ko kam se kam thoda lower correct karna chahiye.
Abhi ke options kya hain? Pehla option yeh hai ke fundamental aur macroeconomic background ko ignore kar diya jaye. Trades sirf sabse important reports aur events par based ki ja sakti hain, jaise ke inflation ya central bank meetings. Kyun? Kyunke market macro data ka logical response nahi dikha raha. Har report ko pound ke haq mein interpret kiya ja raha hai, jo pair ko support kar raha hai. Yehi baat fundamental events par bhi lagu hoti hai. Lagbhag har roz, Federal Reserve ke representatives baat karte hain, wohi baat repeat karte hain: inflation buhat zyada hai, aur near future mein rate cuts ka koi plan nahi hai. Dussri taraf, UK mein inflation target level ke qareeb aa gayi hai, jis se Bank of England June se apni policy ko ease karna shuru kar sakta hai.
Lekin, yeh mumkin nahi lagta ke hum June mein pehla BoE rate cut dekhenge. Hum yeh maante hain ke central bank ehtiyaat se kaam lega aur jaldi nahi karega. UK mein inflation buhat zyada high rahi hai, to ho sakta hai ke agle kuch mahine mein yeh phir se barh jaye. Lekin, yeh baat koi deny nahi kar sakta ke BoE Federal Reserve se zyada qareeb hai easing ke. Halaanke is saal ke shuruat mein market ne iska ulta socha tha.
Lekin, yeh sab data aur information market sentiment ko bilkul bhi affect nahi kar rahi. British pound waise hi trade kar raha hai jaise Bitcoin, jahan asset sirf isliye rise kar rahi hai ke log isse aur rise hone ki umeed mein khareed rahe hain. GBP/USD pair already 61.8% Fibonacci level ke qareeb pahunch chuki hai, jahan yeh pichle saal kaafi waqt guzari thi. Agar yeh movement jo hum dekh rahe hain ek naye uptrend ki shuruaat hai, to humare liye yeh jawab dena mushkil hai ke agle 3-6-9 mahine ya zyada time tak pound ko kya support karega? Aakhir trend ek local movement nahi hota jo sirf technical reasons se drive ho sakta hai. Trend ek prolonged movement hoti hai jo underlying reasons pe based hoti hai. Agar koi reasons nahi hain, to pound ko upside par kya drive karega?
Lekin, pichle chhe mahine (agar zyada nahi) humein dikhate hain ke currency upar ja sakti hai jab ke sab factors uske decline ko point karte hain. Isliye, hum yeh conclusion pe aaye hain ke technical analysis ko precedence dena chahiye. Ek aur aadhe mahine ke rise ke baad, hum expect karte hain ke pound fall karega, kam se kam ek correction ke taur par. Lekin, ab hum ek correction ke baare mein baat kar sakte hain, jiske baad unfounded uptrend resume ho sakta hai. GBP/USD pair ne moving average ke niche consolidate karne mein struggle kiya. Lekin, hum ab bhi downward movement expect karte hain, lekin British currency ke current paradoxical rise ke saath, humein kaafi der tak wait karna par sakta hai. Kal ka pullback zaroori nahi ke naye downtrend ki shuruaat imply kare. Selling ab bhi zyada relevant hai, kyunke zyada tar factors downside ko point karte hain. Isliye, ab hum selling consider kar sakte hain targets 1.2665 aur 1.2604 par. Ek prolonged rise ke baad, pound ko kam se kam thoda lower correct karna chahiye.
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