gbp/usd

Spot price ne Friday ko thodi si girawat dekhi, jo ab 1.3150 ke aas-paas hai. Yeh movement Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data ke dip ke baad hui hai, dono taraf se. Chaar din ke jeet ke baad, pair ab ek ehtiyaat se bharay nazar aa raha hai jab yeh trading week ke aakhri hisson ki taraf barh raha hai. Traders aane wale UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figures aur US Retail Sales data ko dekhenge, jo pair ke performance ko asar daal sakti hain. Abhi ke latest update ke mutabiq, GBP/USD 1.3132 ke aas-paas trade ho raha hai.

Mojooda market conditions aur technical indicators ke madde nazar, traders ko ehtiyaat baratni chahiye. Agar bechne ki activity mazid barh jaati hai to yeh teen haftay purani girawat ko wapas le aane ka signal de sakti hai, khas taur par agar GBP/USD key support levels se neeche girti hai. Dusri taraf, agar pair in supports ke upar rukne me kamiyab rehti hai, to yeh short-term trading opportunities de sakti hai.

GBP/USD ke fundamentals:

Recent developments in the Middle East ne forex market ko thoda complex bana diya hai. Israeli intelligence reports suggest karti hain ke Iran Israel par seedha attack karne ki tayari kar raha hai, Hamas ke leader Ismail Haniyeh ki Tehran mein qatal ke jawab mein. Aise geopolitical tensions global markets ko asar daal sakti hain aur, is tarah se, USD ko bhi asar daal sakti hain. Agar Federal Reserve (Fed) se significant interest rate cuts ki umeed barqarar rehti hai, to yeh USD bullishness ko kam kar sakti hai aur GBP/USD pair ko madad de sakti hai.

Aane wale economic releases, jaise ke UK GDP growth figures aur US Retail Sales data, ke sath market participants ko potential volatility ke liye tayyar rehna chahiye. Yeh reports economic trends par roshni dal sakti hain aur currency movements ko asar daal sakti hain. Traders ko in releases ko dhyan se monitor karna chahiye kyunki yeh market sentiment ko sway kar sakti hain aur GBP/USD dynamics ko influence kar sakti hain.

Four-hour Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Spot price crucial support ko test kar sakti hai jo ke descending channel ke lower boundary ke aas-paas hai, jo ke ab 1.3055 ke aas-paas hai. Agar is level ko break kiya gaya to downward pressure barh sakta hai, jo pair ko August mein noted throwback support 1.3001 ki taraf push kar sakta hai. Halankeh price action generally subdued hai, thodi si downward momentum bhi dekhi gayi hai. Lekin kisi bhi decline ka expect kiya ja raha hai ke yeh 1.3080 support level ke upar hi rahegi. Upar ki taraf, resistance levels 1.3080 aur 1.3200 par dekhe ja rahe hain.

Jab Asian session Friday ko start hua, GBP/USD ne apni do din ki tarakki ko rok diya aur 1.3160 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. Daily chart se pata chal raha hai ke pair ek descending channel ke andar consolidate kar raha hai, jo ke bearish bias ko darshata hai. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator bhi is bearish sentiment se match karta hai, kyunki MACD line signal line aur centerline dono se neeche hai. Iske ilawa, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI bhi 50 level ke neeche hai, jo bearish outlook ko aur reinforce karta hai.

Hum GBP/USD currency pair ke price fluctuations ka tajziya karenge. Is trading instrument ki price jaldi hi unpredictable ho sakti hai, kyunke intelligent money mukhtalif directions mein false signals generate kar rahi hai. Is wajah se price aam logon ke khilaf move kar sakti hai, GBP/USD liquidity wale regions ko target karte hue. Agar mere assumptions sahi hain, to mere analysis ke mutabiq yeh scenario unfold ho sakta hai: shuru mein, pair ki price 1.3172 tak barh sakti hai, jahan accumulation hone ki ummeed hai, uske baad phir volume-heavy zone 1.3026 ki taraf gir sakti hai. Agar 1.3026 par bullish signal emerge hota hai aur substantial volumes ke saath hota hai, to price zone ke lower boundary 1.3230 ki taraf surge kar sakti hai for a test. Agar price 1.3230 ko breach nahi kar pati, to yeh retrace ho sakti hai volume level 1.2944 ki taraf.

Non-farm payrolls report ke mutabiq, pichle kuch saalon ke data ke muqablay mein employment growth overall dheema ho gaya hai, unemployment rate expected ke mutabiq gir gayi hai, aur wage growth tez ho gayi hai. Halankeh labor market ke dheema hone ke saboot barh rahe hain, lekin naye data ke madad se US economy recession mein girne se bach sakti hai. Labor market ke strong hone ke assessment ne Federal Reserve ke sharp rate cut ke expectations ko kam kar diya hai, jo dollar ko boost kar raha hai.

Agar 1.3100 ke niche break hota hai, to ye further selling ko trigger kar sakta hai, jo April-July uptrend ke 23.6% Fibonacci retracement 1.3040 aur 20-day SMA 1.3000 ki taraf ho sakti hai. Agar downside ko pakra gaya, to bearish cycle 38.2% Fibonacci level 1.2900 aur 50-day SMA tak extend ho sakti hai. Further declines se 2022 se uptrend line ka continuation confirm ho sakta hai, jo 50% Fibonacci level aur 1.2775 level ke aas paas ho sakta hai. RSI aur Stochastic ke lower hone aur MACD ke red signal line ke neeche cross karne se, selling interest abhi ke liye unchanged reh sakta hai. Lekin, moving averages ke upward slope ka matlab hai ke ongoing bearish wave shayad ek larger uptrend ka hissa ho.