gbp/usd

GBP/USD ne haal hi mein 1.3050 ka local high maara hai aur 1.30 ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo ke bullish outlook ko mazboot karta hai.
- Technical Indicators: 4-hour chart recent move ke top par indecision dikha raha hai, aur indicators ek potential reversal ka ishara de rahe hain.
- Support Level: Dekhna hai ke pullback 1.2947 ke support level par hota hai ya nahi. Agar yeh level break hota hai, toh ek gehri girawat ho sakti hai, jo shayad 1.2831 ko target kare.
- Resistance Level: Agar price 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ke upar rehti hai, toh mazeed upward movement aur naye highs ki tawaqo ki ja sakti hai.
GBP/USD ne thoda girawat dekhi aur 1.3097 ke aas-paas aa gaya. Yeh decline US Dollar ki relative weakness ki wajah se ho sakta hai, jo Federal Reserve ke September meeting mein interest rates ko kam karne ke expectations ke wajah se downward pressure ka samna kar raha hai. Conversely, agar sellers GBP/USD pair ko 1.3100 level ke neeche le aaye, to pair 1.3050 mark ke aas-paas range-bound reh sakti hai. Agar yeh support level breach hota hai, to 100-day moving average (DMA) 1.3135 ko expose kiya ja
Kal ki upward movement ke baad, GBP/USD pair ne 4-hour chart par aik naya local high hasil kiya, jo ke 1.3050 par peak kiya. Yeh abhi bhi 1.30 ke significant round number ke upar trade kar raha hai, jis ne bullish sentiment ko mazboot kiya hai. Is key level ke breach hone par bohot se traders apni positions aur priorities ko dobara se evaluate karte hain.
Lekin recent wave ke peak par, 4-hour chart par kuch indecisive candles nazar aa rahi hain, aur indicators ek possible reversal ka ishara de rahe hain. Abhi ke liye sab se zyada mumkin scenario yeh lagta hai ke price 1.2947 ke support level ki taraf pullback kare. Humein dekhna hoga ke yeh level ke aas paas price kaise behave karti hai. Agar bears price ko 1.2947 ke neeche dhakel dete hain, jo ke 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ke saath align karta hai, toh hum ek lambi downward movement dekh sakte hain jo ke trading range ke lower boundary ya 1.2831 ke support level ko target karegi. Yeh ek significant bearish trend ki taraf le ja sakta hai.
Dosri taraf, agar GBP/USD 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ke upar apni position ko barqarar rakhta hai, toh hum mazeed upward movement dekh sakte hain aur recent local high ka dobara test ho sakta hai. Mojooda surat-e-haal yeh suggest karti hai ke traders ko hoshiyar rehna chahiye aur in key levels ke aas paas ki price action ke mutabiq apni strategies ko adjust karna chahiye.
Summary:
- Current Price Action: GBP/USD ne haal hi mein 1.3050 ka local high maara hai aur 1.30 ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo ke bullish outlook ko mazboot karta hai.
- Technical Indicators: 4-hour chart recent move ke top par indecision dikha raha hai, aur indicators ek potential reversal ka ishara de rahe hain

Jumeraat ko currency pair mein kaafi ziada utar chadhav dekhne ko mila, jisme yeh 1.3180 mark tak gir gaya. Yeh girawat US mein nayi mandi ke khadshon ke sabab se hui, jo disappointing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) numbers ki wajah se barh gayi. Sath hi, Pound Sterling ka flow bhi kam ho gaya jab Bank of England (BoE) ne ek intehai umeed ki jaane wali quarter-point rate cut ka elaan kiya. Aakhri updates ke mutabiq, GBP/USD 1.3181 ke aas paas trade ho raha hai.
GBP/USD ke Fundamentals:

Haal hi ke US economic data ne mandi ke khadshon ko barha diya hai. Berozgari ki shara 4.3% tak barh gayi hai, jo November 2021 ke baad se sabse zyada hai, aur labor demand bhi kam ho gayi hai. Saath hi, Manufacturing PMI mein July ke mahine mein sakht girawat dekhi gayi. Lekin, technical tor par jab do musalsal quarters mein GDP growth negative ho, tabhi recession hota hai, aur filhal US ki economy ne second quarter mein 2.8% ki growth dikhayi hai, jo pehle quarter ki growth se dugni hai.

US Services PMI, jo ke economy ka do tihayi hissa hai, ne June mein contraction ke baad July mein behtri dikhayi. PMI report ne 51.4 ka unexpected expansion dikhaya, jo pehle ke 48.8 se barh kar 51.0 tak anay ka andaza tha. Magar, bawajood is ke, US Dollar ka mustaqbil ab bhi qeyal hai mandi ke khadshon aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ke emergency rate cuts ke imkaanaat ki wajah se.

Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Spot price ab 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke qareeb hai, jo ke 1.3165 par hai. Yeh pehli dafa hai ke yeh long-term moving average ko May ke baad se test kar raha hai. Iss pair ne August ki peak 1.3264 se lagbhag 3% ki girawat dekhayi hai, jo ek aham downtrend ko zahir karta hai.

Iss waqt, pair ek ahem mor par hai, jo Rising Channel chart pattern ki lower boundary ke qareeb hai hourly timeframe mein. Tareekhi taur par, aise pullbacks ko traders khareedne ka mauqa samajhte hain, jo ek rebound ka imkaan zahir karta hai.

Jumeraat ko currency pair mein kaafi ziada utar chadhav dekhne ko mila, jisme yeh 1.3180 mark tak gir gaya. Yeh girawat US mein nayi mandi ke khadshon ke sabab se hui, jo disappointing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) numbers ki wajah se barh gayi. Sath hi, Pound Sterling ka flow bhi kam ho gaya jab Bank of England (BoE) ne ek intehai umeed ki jaane wali quarter-point rate cut ka elaan kiya. Aakhri updates ke mutabiq, GBP/USD 1.3181 ke aas paas trade ho raha hai.
GBP/USD ke Fundamentals:

Haal hi ke US economic data ne mandi ke khadshon ko barha diya hai. Berozgari ki shara 4.3% tak barh gayi hai, jo November 2021 ke baad se sabse zyada hai, aur labor demand bhi kam ho gayi hai. Saath hi, Manufacturing PMI mein July ke mahine mein sakht girawat dekhi gayi. Lekin, technical tor par jab do musalsal quarters mein GDP growth negative ho, tabhi recession hota hai, aur filhal US ki economy ne second quarter mein 2.8% ki growth dikhayi hai, jo pehle quarter ki growth se dugni hai.

US Services PMI, jo ke economy ka do tihayi hissa hai, ne June mein contraction ke baad July mein behtri dikhayi. PMI report ne 51.4 ka unexpected expansion dikhaya, jo pehle ke 48.8 se barh kar 51.0 tak anay ka andaza tha. Magar, bawajood is ke, US Dollar ka mustaqbil ab bhi qeyal hai mandi ke khadshon aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ke emergency rate cuts ke imkaanaat ki wajah se.

Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Spot price ab 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke qareeb hai, jo ke 1.3165 par hai. Yeh pehli dafa hai ke yeh long-term moving average ko May ke baad se test kar raha hai. Iss pair ne August ki peak 1.3264 se lagbhag 3% ki girawat dekhayi hai, jo ek aham downtrend ko zahir karta hai.

Iss waqt, pair ek ahem mor par hai, jo Rising Channel chart pattern ki lower boundary ke qareeb hai hourly timeframe mein. Tareekhi taur par, aise pullbacks ko traders khareedne ka mauqa samajhte hain, jo ek rebound ka imkaan zahir karta hai.

**GBP/USD H4 Analysis**

Hello doston, aaj dopahar ko main GBP/USD currency pair ka H1 time frame par analysis karne ki koshish karunga. GBP/USD currency pair pichle kuch dinon se H1 time frame par pressure mein hai aur market ke close hone tak yeh pair upar ya neeche trading kar raha hai. Iske baraks, isme izafa dekhne ko mil sakta hai, kyunki jab market contact hoti hai to achi movement hoti hai.

Hum technical analysis method se GBP/USD currency pair ka analysis karenge. Main moving average indicator ka istemal karunga jo 21 aur 34 period ke hain H1 time frame par trend direction padhne ke liye. Filhal, price apni moving average indicator ke upar move kar rahi hai, jo indicate karta hai ke GBP/USD currency pair bullish trend mein hai aur next resistance level 1.3264 par aa sakta hai.

Agar trend bullish hai to hume GBP/USD pair mein BUY opportunities par focus karna chahiye, kyunki jo method main use kar raha hoon wo trend ke sath chalti hai. Stochastic indicator filhal neeche ja raha hai, isliye hum wait karenge jab tak Stochastic indicator upar nahi jata, kyunki jab yeh indicator neeche hota hai to price correction ka possibility hoti hai uske baad upar jane ki.

Stop loss aur take profit ke liye hum support aur resistance areas ka istemal kar sakte hain. Stop loss area ko hum support level 1.3135 par rakhenge aur take profit target ko resistance area 1.3264 par set karenge. Niche image attach ki gayi hai jo meri analysis ko guide karne ke liye hai, aur yeh meri brief analysis hai GBP/USD currency pair ke baare mein. Yeh doston ke liye useful ho sakta hai.

**Note:**
- **Order Position:** BUY 1.3175
- **Support (Stop Loss):** 1.3135
- **

Budh ke din American trading session mein GBP/USD pair lagbhag 1.3170 tak barh gaya USD ke muqable mein. Yeh izafa Middle East mein barhti hui tensions aur risk aversion ki wajah se hua. Halanki US Dollar Index (DXY) kafi kamzor ho gaya, aur takriban 101.30 tak gir gaya, jo ke March 11 ke baad se sabse kam hai, lekin fir bhi GBP/USD pair mein khaas girawat dekhne ko mili.
Fed Rate Cut Expectation aur BoE ke Taqreebi Asrat:

Market ki expectations Federal Reserve ke hawale se kaafi tabdeel ho chuki hain. CME ke FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, 18 September ko 50-basis point rate cut ka imkaan 74.5% tak barh gaya hai, jo ke sirf ek haftay pehle 11.5% tha. Yeh tabdeeli US ke disappointing jobs data aur factory activity mein zyada contraction ko zahir karte hue ISM Manufacturing PMI report ke baad hui hai.

Pound Sterling (GBP) ko bhi kaafi challenges ka samna hai. Bank of England (BoE) ne August meeting mein 25-basis point rate cut ka elaan kiya, jo ke umeed thi. BoE Governor Bailey ne kaha ke minimum wage mein izafa abhi tak economic outlook ko bura asar nahi diya. Unhon ne yeh bhi kaha ke inflation ab 2% ke target ke qareeb aa rahi hai, halan ke kuch risks ab bhi moujood hain.

GBP/USD ka Technical Analysis:

Asia ke stock markets ke zabardast girawat aur trading halts ke bawajood, Pound Sterling ne kuch recovery ki. Iss waqt pair 1.3145 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. Ahem resistance levels mein 1.3200 ka round figure aur 1.3265 ke qareeb multi-year high shamil hain, jo Pound Sterling bulls ke liye ahem hote hain.

Is ke bawajood, pair ab bhi 1.3100 ke critical support level se neeche hai. 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 1.2930 ke qareeb hai, jo ke near-term trend mein uncertainty ko zahir karta hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) ne bearish signal diya hai, jo yeh batata hai ke market mein is waqt sellers dominate kar rahe hain, aur mazeed nuqsanat ka imkaan moujood hai.

Budh ke din American trading session mein GBP/USD pair lagbhag 1.3170 tak barh gaya USD ke muqable mein. Yeh izafa Middle East mein barhti hui tensions aur risk aversion ki wajah se hua. Halanki US Dollar Index (DXY) kafi kamzor ho gaya, aur takriban 101.30 tak gir gaya, jo ke March 11 ke baad se sabse kam hai, lekin fir bhi GBP/USD pair mein khaas girawat dekhne ko mili.
Fed Rate Cut Expectation aur BoE ke Taqreebi Asrat:

Market ki expectations Federal Reserve ke hawale se kaafi tabdeel ho chuki hain. CME ke FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, 18 September ko 50-basis point rate cut ka imkaan 74.5% tak barh gaya hai, jo ke sirf ek haftay pehle 11.5% tha. Yeh tabdeeli US ke disappointing jobs data aur factory activity mein zyada contraction ko zahir karte hue ISM Manufacturing PMI report ke baad hui hai.

Pound Sterling (GBP) ko bhi kaafi challenges ka samna hai. Bank of England (BoE) ne August meeting mein 25-basis point rate cut ka elaan kiya, jo ke umeed thi. BoE Governor Bailey ne kaha ke minimum wage mein izafa abhi tak economic outlook ko bura asar nahi diya. Unhon ne yeh bhi kaha ke inflation ab 2% ke target ke qareeb aa rahi hai, halan ke kuch risks ab bhi moujood hain.

GBP/USD ka Technical Analysis:

Asia ke stock markets ke zabardast girawat aur trading halts ke bawajood, Pound Sterling ne kuch recovery ki. Iss waqt pair 1.3145 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. Ahem resistance levels mein 1.3200 ka round figure aur 1.3265 ke qareeb multi-year high shamil hain, jo Pound Sterling bulls ke liye ahem hote hain.

Is ke bawajood, pair ab bhi 1.3100 ke critical support level se neeche hai. 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 1.2930 ke qareeb hai, jo ke near-term trend mein uncertainty ko zahir karta hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) ne bearish signal diya hai, jo yeh batata hai ke market mein is waqt sellers dominate kar rahe hain, aur mazeed nuqsanat ka imkaan moujood hai.

GBP USD ne Thursday ko ek ahem ulat pher ka samna kiya, apne din ke tamam faiday kho diye aur 1.3100 ke neeche gir gaya. Pound ke liye apni winning streak ko barqarar rakhna mushkil hogaya hai, jo zyada taqatwar US economic data, khaaskar S&P Global Composite PMI for August ke waja se hai. US Composite PMI, jo business activity ko napta hai, 54.1 par aya, jabkay umeed thi ke yeh 54.3 ho ga. Yeh growth services sector ke optimism ki wajah se thi, jabkay manufacturing activity ziada tez girawat ka shikar hui. Is data ke jawab mein US Dollar Index (DXY) barh kar 101.00 se 101.60 tak pohanch gaya.

Mazid taqatwar economic data ke bawajood, US dollar ka mustaqbil ab bhi ghair yaqini hai, is ki wajah Federal Reserve ke interest rate cut ke hawalay se barhti hui speculations hain. July ke FOMC meeting ke minutes se maloom hua ke kuch policymakers ne us waqt hi borrowing rates kam karne ki sifarish ki thi, aur ab investors ziada mutma'in hain ke Fed apni monetary policy ko ziada accommodative banane ja raha hai. Lekin, minutes yeh bhi dikhate hain ke "substantial majority" officials ne kaha ke rate cut aglay meeting mein sirf tabhi hoga agar economic data umeedon ke mutabiq raha. Haal hi ke data, jese ke total employment mein kami, recession ke khadshay ko barha raha hai aur rate cut ke hawalay se umeedon ko mazid taqat di hai.


Aaj, pair ke liye halat lagbhag wahi hain. Aham role support level 1.2680 ka hoga. Agar yeh support tor diya gaya, to pair 1.2570 tak gir sakta hai, jahan se ek rollback shuru ho sakti hai aur uske baad phir se 1.2447 tak girawat ho sakti hai. Magar iss haftay yeh sab hone ka waqt nahi. Agar yeh support 1.2680 ke neeche tor kar nahi rakh paaye, to phir wapas 1.2750 ki taraf growth hogi. Is resistance ko torna zaroori hoga, taake ek aur impulse 1.2860 ki taraf ban sake, jo ke upward trend ko 1.3065 tak le ja sakta hai. Lekin is haftay yeh growth hona mushkil lagta hai. Agar 1.2860 ka breakthrough ho bhi gaya aur resistance 1.2750 ko aaj tor diya gaya, to bhi is haftay 1.300 ke upar janay ki umeed nahi karni chahiye. Maksimum 1.2970 tak pohanchne ke chances hain, aur is resistance tak ponchnay ke bhi zyada chances nahi lagtay.

GBP/USD: Successful Trading
Is maqalay mein GBP/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka tajziya kiya gaya hai. Kal bullish buy level ke upar ka breakout misleading sabit hua, kyun ke uske baad koi barhawa dekhne ko nahi mila; balkay bearish sell level 1.31285 par breach hogaya. Is bearish breakdown ne bullish bias ko khatam kar diya, jiss wajah se mujhe selling ki taraf shift karna para. Ab mein umeed kar raha hoon ke price kam az kam 1.30859 tak giray gi. Yeh price aur bhi neeche ja sakti hai, ya to bearish channel ke lower boundary tak ya phir support level 1.29384 tak. Dobara buying ka sochna us waqt ho ga jab bullish buy level ka breakout hoga. Abhi mera alternative bullish buy level 1.31399 par hai. Agar bulls is level ko tod dete hain, tou mein foran buying ki taraf shift ho jaoonga, aur kam az kam 1.31849-1.32089 ke resistance levels tak ka izafa dekhne ki umeed hai. Pehle ke high tak bhi growth ka potential hai.

Main abhi tak upward move ko mumkin samajh raha hoon, is liye apna buy position close karne mein hichkichahat hai. 1.3049 ke qareeb, ek full-scale upward movement meri profit target 1.3407 tak ja sakti hai, halan ke mein isay confirm nahi kar sakta. Lekin agar bears price ko 1.2919 tak le jaate hain, tou mein shayad apna buy position manually close kar doon, kyun ke us waqt bullish move ke chances kaafi kam ho jaayenge. Maine pehle 1.3099-1.3049 tak ke drop ki tawaqo ki thi aur ab bhi uska intezar kar raha hoon, kyun ke abhi pair overbought lag raha hai. Euro ne to apne gains ko lagbhag erase kar diya, lekin pound ne sirf 29% ka retrace kiya hai. Agar EU inflation 2.1% pe aata hai aur significant drop show karta hai, jisse ECB rates cut kare Fed ki tarah, tou UK ka inflation data abhi pending hai. Jab yeh release hoga, tou umeed hai ke market realize karegi ke Bank of England rates ko kam karta rahega. Kul mila ke, is hafte ke liye mera GBP/USD ka outlook bearish hai, aur mujhe nahi lagta ke yeh 1.3141 se upar jaayega.

GBP/USD: Successful Trading
Is maqalay mein GBP/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka tajziya kiya gaya hai. Kal bullish buy level ke upar ka breakout misleading sabit hua, kyun ke uske baad koi barhawa dekhne ko nahi mila; balkay bearish sell level 1.31285 par breach hogaya. Is bearish breakdown ne bullish bias ko khatam kar diya, jiss wajah se mujhe selling ki taraf shift karna para. Ab mein umeed kar raha hoon ke price kam az kam 1.30859 tak giray gi. Yeh price aur bhi neeche ja sakti hai, ya to bearish channel ke lower boundary tak ya phir support level 1.29384 tak. Dobara buying ka sochna us waqt ho ga jab bullish buy level ka breakout hoga. Abhi mera alternative bullish buy level 1.31399 par hai. Agar bulls is level ko tod dete hain, tou mein foran buying ki taraf shift ho jaoonga, aur kam az kam 1.31849-1.32089 ke resistance levels tak ka izafa dekhne ki umeed hai. Pehle ke high tak bhi growth ka potential hai.

Main abhi tak upward move ko mumkin samajh raha hoon, is liye apna buy position close karne mein hichkichahat hai. 1.3049 ke qareeb, ek full-scale upward movement meri profit target 1.3407 tak ja sakti hai, halan ke mein isay confirm nahi kar sakta. Lekin agar bears price ko 1.2919 tak le jaate hain, tou mein shayad apna buy position manually close kar doon, kyun ke us waqt bullish move ke chances kaafi kam ho jaayenge. Maine pehle 1.3099-1.3049 tak ke drop ki tawaqo ki thi aur ab bhi uska intezar kar raha hoon, kyun ke abhi pair overbought lag raha hai. Euro ne to apne gains ko lagbhag erase kar diya, lekin pound ne sirf 29% ka retrace kiya hai. Agar EU inflation 2.1% pe aata hai aur significant drop show karta hai, jisse ECB rates cut kare Fed ki tarah, tou UK ka inflation data abhi pending hai. Jab yeh release hoga, tou umeed hai ke market realize karegi ke Bank of England rates ko kam karta rahega. Kul mila ke, is hafte ke liye mera GBP/USD ka outlook bearish hai, aur mujhe nahi lagta ke yeh 1.3141 se upar jaayega.

Daily chart par, price ko blue channel ki middle line se support mil raha hai, jo aksar upward direction mein hota hai.
Is mahine price ne red channel ke andar trading shuru ki, aur iska direction upward hai, jo pichlay mahine ke price trend ko zahir karta hai. Price pehle sideways direction mein chalta raha jab tak isne red channel ko break nahi kiya.

Ab price blue channel ke andar trade kar raha hai, jo bhi upward direction mein hai aur pichlay do mahinon ke price trend ko dikhata hai. Price monthly pivot level 1.03017 ke upar trade kar raha hai, isliye is mahine price movement upward direction mein jaane ki umeed hai. Humare paas do levels hain jahan se is mahine upward wave shuru ho sakti hai.

Pehla level monthly pivot level hai, jahan price apne current level se gir sakta hai, aur jab price monthly pivot level tak pohanchta hai, tou usay support milta hai aur phir woh barhna shuru karta hai.

Dusra level current level hai, jahan price sideways direction mein trade kar raha hai aur neeche jaane ke qabil nahi hai.

Economic front par, United States aur Britain ke darmiyan divergent monetary policy expectations ne currency ko support diya hai. Aam tor par, kamzor US economic data aur Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ke interest rate cut ke isharaat ne US dollar ko kamzor kiya, jabke mazid strong UK economic data aur Bank of England ka ehtiyaat baratna British pound ko boost diya. Bank of England ne haal hi mein apna main interest rate 5% tak cut kiya, aur traders tawaqo karte hain ke saal ke akhir tak mazid 41 basis points cut hoga. Dosri taraf, Federal Reserve se umeed hai ke woh is saal US interest rates mein 103 basis points ka cut karega, jisme agle mahine 50 basis points ka cut hone ka imkaan hai. Issi dauran, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer ne UK ki slow recovery par khauf zahir kiya.

Daily chart par, price ko blue channel ki middle line se support mil raha hai, jo aksar upward direction mein hota hai.
Is mahine price ne red channel ke andar trading shuru ki, aur iska direction upward hai, jo pichlay mahine ke price trend ko zahir karta hai. Price pehle sideways direction mein chalta raha jab tak isne red channel ko break nahi kiya.

Ab price blue channel ke andar trade kar raha hai, jo bhi upward direction mein hai aur pichlay do mahinon ke price trend ko dikhata hai. Price monthly pivot level 1.03017 ke upar trade kar raha hai, isliye is mahine price movement upward direction mein jaane ki umeed hai. Humare paas do levels hain jahan se is mahine upward wave shuru ho sakti hai.

Pehla level monthly pivot level hai, jahan price apne current level se gir sakta hai, aur jab price monthly pivot level tak pohanchta hai, tou usay support milta hai aur phir woh barhna shuru karta hai.

Dusra level current level hai, jahan price sideways direction mein trade kar raha hai aur neeche jaane ke qabil nahi hai.

Economic front par, United States aur Britain ke darmiyan divergent monetary policy expectations ne currency ko support diya hai. Aam tor par, kamzor US economic data aur Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ke interest rate cut ke isharaat ne US dollar ko kamzor kiya, jabke mazid strong UK economic data aur Bank of England ka ehtiyaat baratna British pound ko boost diya. Bank of England ne haal hi mein apna main interest rate 5% tak cut kiya, aur traders tawaqo karte hain ke saal ke akhir tak mazid 41 basis points cut hoga. Dosri taraf, Federal Reserve se umeed hai ke woh is saal US interest rates mein 103 basis points ka cut karega, jisme agle mahine 50 basis points ka cut hone ka imkaan hai. Issi dauran, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer ne UK ki slow recovery par khauf zahir kiya.

**GBP/USD Pair ki Tashkeel: Uplift aur Aanewale Data**

Currency pair ke upward trajectory par rehne ki wajah se, recent peak 1.2780 ke aas-paas dekha gaya hai, jo Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ke Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report ke summary ke baad umeedon ke saath barh gaya hai. UK ke data sirf mid-tier Industrial Production figures tak mehdood hai, aur sabki nazar ab US ke Consumer Price Index (CPI) report par hai, jo Thursday ke American market session mein ahamiyat rakhte hue, investor attention ko attract karegi.

**Market Sentiment Mein Tabdeeli: September Mein Fed Rate Cut ke Odds Barh Gaye Aur Aanewale CPI Data Par Nazar**

Market sentiment ab GBP/USD pair ke liye kaafi behtar ho gaya hai, jo zyada tar Federal Reserve ke interest rate cut ke imkaan se driven hai, jo September mein kabhi bhi ho sakta hai. CME FedWatch tool ab 77% probability dikhata hai ke September mein rate reduction ho sakta hai, jo pichle hafte ke 65.6% se kafi zyada hai. Yeh upward shift largely June ke US Nonfarm Payrolls report ke underwhelming results ke wajah se hai, jo labor market ke deceleration ko signal karta hai.

September rate cut ke imkaan ke barhne ke saath, investors ki nazar US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report par hai, jo Thursday ko release hogi. Core inflation, jo food aur energy components ko exclude karti hai, expected hai ke 0.2% monthly increase aur 3.4% annual rise ke saath steady rahegi. Overall inflation thodi si moderate hone ki ummeed hai, May ke 3.3% se 3.1% tak, aur monthly change bhi minimal hone ki ummeed hai.

**H1 Chart GBP/USD ke Key Levels Aur Indicators Potential Bullish Breakout Ki Nishani Dikhate Hain:**

US Dollar ke muqablay mein key 1.2800 level ko maintain karna crucial hai. Pair Inverted Head and Shoulders (H&S) formation se breakout ke liye momentum gain kar raha hai, jiska neckline 1.2750 ke aas-paas hai. Agar is pattern se successful breakout hota hai, to yeh bullish reversal ko signal karega, jo pair ko upar le ja sakta hai.

**Supporting This Bullish Outlook:** 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) jo 1.2742 ke aas-paas hai, nears-term trend ko positive suggest karta hai. Additionally, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish range 60.00-80.00 mein enter kar chuki hai. In levels ke upar sustained move upward momentum ko reinforce karega GBP/USD pair ke liye.

### GBPUSD Ke 5-Minute Chart Ki Analysis

**1. Price Movement Aur Band Analysis**

5-minute chart par GBPUSD ka Pound abhi lower band ke saath movement banaane ki koshish kar raha hai, jo ek bearish trend ki nishani hai. Acha signal pane ke liye, price drop ke liye yeh zaroori hai ke lower band ko actively break kiya jaye. Breakout tab hota hai jab price decisive tareeke se band ke bahar chali jati hai, jo current trend ke continue hone ka indication hota hai. Breakout ke baad, yeh dekhna zaroori hai ke bands expand ho rahi hain ya nahi. Agar bands outward expand hoti hain, to yeh volatility aur bearish move ke strength ko indicate karta hai, jabke agar expansion nahi hota, to yeh suggest karta hai ke breakout itna strong nahi hai ke downward trend ko sustain kar sake.

**2. Awesome Oscillator Indicator**

Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator filhal zero level ke around hover kar raha hai, jo koi clear signals nahi de raha. AO ek momentum indicator hai jo 34-period aur 8-period simple moving average ke darmiyan difference measure karta hai. Jab AO zero ke qareeb hota hai, to yeh consolidation ya market mein indecision ki period ko indicate karta hai. Clear signal pane ke liye, yeh behtar hoga ke positive ya negative area mein significant increase ka intezaar kiya jaye. Agar AO positive area mein utha, to bullish momentum badhne ka indication milta hai, jabke negative area mein girna bearish momentum ko confirm karta hai, jo price movement ko increase ya decrease ke direction mein indicate kar sakta hai.

**3. Selling Opportunities**

Agar aap sell position enter karna chahte hain, to 1.31213 ka level entry point ke liye consider kiya ja sakta hai. Is level se price ka girna, active breakthrough aur is point ke neeche consolidation bearish trend ke continuation ko signal de sakti hai. Aise mein, price ka 1.31088 tak girna expect kiya ja sakta hai. Yeh target assume karta hai ke bearish momentum barqarar rahega aur lower band breakout additional downward movement ko lead karega.

**4. Buying Opportunities**

Dusri taraf, agar aap buy positions consider kar rahe hain, to 1.31388 level potential entry point ban sakta hai. Is level se price ka barhna ek reversal ya market sentiment shift ka indication de sakta hai. Agar price is point se upar chale, to 1.31538 tak rise expect kiya ja sakta hai. Yeh upward target short-term bullish trend ko reflect karta hai, jo entry level ke upar sustained move aur positive market sentiment par depend karta hai.

**Conclusion**

In summary, GBPUSD pair ke 5-minute chart par bearish aur bullish dono scenarios ka potential nazar aa raha hai. Bearish outlook ke liye, lower band ke breakout aur subsequent band expansion ko monitor karna zaroori hai. Bullish outlook ke liye, 1.31388 ke upar price rise aur other indicators ke through confirmation buy opportunities provide kar sakti hai. Dono cases mein, Awesome Oscillator aur key levels ke saath price action par nazar rakhna informed trading decisions ke liye essential hoga.

Budh ke din American trading session mein GBP/USD pair lagbhag 1.3170 tak barh gaya USD ke muqable mein. Yeh izafa Middle East mein barhti hui tensions aur risk aversion ki wajah se hua. Halanki US Dollar Index (DXY) kafi kamzor ho gaya, aur takriban 101.30 tak gir gaya, jo ke March 11 ke baad se sabse kam hai, lekin fir bhi GBP/USD pair mein khaas girawat dekhne ko mili. Fed Rate Cut Expectation aur BoE ke Taqreebi Asrat:

Market ki expectations Federal Reserve ke hawale se kaafi tabdeel ho chuki hain. CME ke FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, 18 September ko 50-basis point rate cut ka imkaan 74.5% tak barh gaya hai, jo ke sirf ek haftay pehle 11.5% tha. Yeh tabdeeli US ke disappointing jobs data aur factory activity mein zyada contraction ko zahir karte hue ISM Manufacturing PMI report ke baad hui hai.

Pound Sterling (GBP) ko bhi kaafi challenges ka samna hai. Bank of England (BoE) ne August meeting mein 25-basis point rate cut ka elaan kiya, jo ke umeed thi. BoE Governor Bailey ne kaha ke minimum wage mein izafa abhi tak economic outlook ko bura asar nahi diya. Unhon ne yeh bhi kaha ke inflation ab 2% ke target ke qareeb aa rahi hai, halan ke kuch risks ab bhi moujood hain.

GBP/USD ka Technical Analysis:

Asia ke stock markets ke zabardast girawat aur trading halts ke bawajood, Pound Sterling ne kuch recovery ki. Iss waqt pair 1.3145 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. Ahem resistance levels mein 1.3200 ka round figure aur 1.3265 ke qareeb multi-year high shamil hain, jo Pound Sterling bulls ke liye ahem hote hain.

Is ke bawajood, pair ab bhi 1.3100 ke critical support level se neeche hai. 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 1.2930 ke qareeb hai, jo ke near-term trend mein uncertainty ko zahir karta hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) ne bearish signal diya hai, jo yeh batata hai ke market mein is waqt sellers dominate kar rahe hain, aur mazeed nuqsanat ka imkaan moujood hai.

Yeh analysis H4 TF reference ke mutabiq hai. Jab pehle ki increase RSI 70 level par overbought area ke upar chali gayi thi, to aik downward correction phase ki zaroorat thi. Ab ke downward movement ne MA 50 (red) limit ko penetrate kar diya hai, jisse ke downward efforts ki aur bhi mumkinat hai taake agle MA area, jo ke MA 100 (green) ke around 1.3030 hai, tak pohncha ja sake. Agar bearish correction aur bhi chalti hai, to MA 200 (blue) movement limit jo ke 1.2937 ke range mein hai, ko test karne ki bhi sambhavnayein hain. Short term mein, jab tak price apne sab se qareeb resistance area 1.3197 ke upar nahi jati, tab tak sell plan ko consider kiya ja sakta hai.

Agar uss price level ke upar breakout hota hai, to bullish efforts ko continue karna mumkin hai aur crucial resistance area ke upar new higher banane ki bhi possibility hai, jo ke 1.3264 ke range mein hai. Short-term sell option abhi 1.3140-1.3150 ke range se enter karne par consider kiya ja sakta hai. Decline ke target ke liye TP 1 1.3050 ke level tak aur TP 2 MA 200 (blue) ke upar demand area range 1.2970 tak plan kiya ja sakta hai. Sell plan ko 1.3200 ke upar stop loss limit rakh kar place kiya ja sakta hai.

Buy plan ko bullish trend ke continuation ke liye consider kiya ja sakta hai, agar bearish rejection MA 100 (green) ke movement range 1.3130-1.3150 mein hoti hai. Target yeh hai ke increase karna highest price limit of the previous month jo ke 1.3264 ke range mein hai, aur Zero area jo ke 1.3300 ke range mein hai, tak pohnchne ki koshish karna. H4 TF mein bullish trend tab invalid hoga agar sellers Zero area ko MA 200 ke movement limit se niche le jaane mein kamyaab ho jaate hain, jo ke 1.2900 ke range mein