gbp/usd

Pair iss waqt recent recovery par struggle kar raha hai, jahan se yeh 1.3130 level se rebound hua tha — jo near multi-month high hai. Aik modest US Dollar ke weakening ke bawajood Friday ko US session ke dauran kuch buying interest attract kiya, jahan spot prices 1.3155 ke aas paas positive trade ho rahi hain. Lekin broader economic backdrop ko dekhte huay, bearish traders ko ehtiyaat karni chahiye.

Fundamentals of the GBP/USD:
Federal Reserve apni July monetary policy meeting mein interest rates ko unchanged rakhne ki tawaqqo hai. Fed ne July 2023 se apna benchmark funds rate 5.25% se 5.50% ke range mein rakh hai, jo ke decades mein sabse zyada restrictive monetary policy period hai. Market participants Chair Jerome Powell ke comments par nazar rakhenge future policy rates ke trajectory ke hints ke liye. Jaise inflation Fed ke 2% target ke qareeb aa rahi hai, speculations hain ke central bank September tak apni policy ease kar sakta hai.Dusri taraf, GBP/USD pair ne zyada major pairs ke against struggle kiya hai, siwai Australian Dollar ke. Investors anticipate kar rahe hain ke BoE apni August meeting mein interest rate cut kar sakta hai, jo ke March 2020 ke baad pehli reduction hogi. BoE ne December 2021 se restrictive monetary policy adopt ki hui hai inflation se fight karne ke liye, jo pandemic-driven stimulus measures se intensify hui thi.

Technical Analysis of the GBP/USD:
Technical analysis ke hisaab se, 1.3081 level Pound Sterling bulls ke liye ek crucial support zone hai. Iske muqabil, do saal ka high 1.3264 ek significant resistance hai. Key resistance levels mein 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) 1.3190 par, aur 50-day SMA 1.3129 par hain, jabke support 100-day SMA around 1.3044 par dekhi ja rahi hai. Agar yeh support breach hota hai, toh further declines 1.3000 mark tak ho sakte hain.Yeh scenario indicate karta hai ke GBP/USD pair critical levels ke kareeb trade kar raha hai, jahan bullish aur bearish forces mein kashmakash jari hai. Economic developments aur technical levels par nazar rakhna zaruri hoga is pair ki future movement ko assess karne ke liye.

Spot price ne European trading session ke dauran sirf choti moti uthal puthal dekhi, kyunke market ke participants US Federal Reserve ke aaney wale policy announcement ki tayari kar rahe thay. Currency pair khaasa stable raha, 1.3120 par trade ho raha tha jismein koi khaas tabdeeli nahi hui. Traders ne Fed ke faisle par nazar jama rakhi hui hai, jismein ummeed hai ke wo faiz ki satah ko barqarar rakhenge lekin aage chal kar policy mein tabdeeli ke liye raasta saaf kar sakte hain.
Federal Reserve ke faisle ke intezaar mein, yeh pair halat-e-ghair yaqini mein hai, jo ke mulki aur bayn-ul-aqwami asraat se mutasir ho raha hai. Fed ke announcement ka nateeja currency ki direction par gehra asar daal sakta hai, jis se forex market mein mazeed uthal puthal ho sakti hai. Pound ne thoda recover kiya hai jab ke BoE ne apna mauqif barqarar rakha; Fed ne faiz ki satah mein koi tabdeeli nahi ki.

Mangal ke roz Asian trading session ke dauran, Pound Sterling ne pichle nuksan se kuch hat tak bahr haal kiya, lekin ab bhi bari currencies se peeche hai. Yeh dairaj ko labana Bank of England ke ehtiyaati approach ki wajah se hua hai jo ke faiz ki katauti ke bare mein hai. BoE ke Governor Andrew Bailey ne inflasyon ko sambhalne ki zarurat ko beinteha zaroori qarar diya, aur kaha, "Humein yaqeen dilaana hoga ke inflasyon neeche rahe aur faiz ki satah ko turrant ya bayhad darmi se girane se ehtiyaat karna hoga." Unho ne yeh bhi kaha ke ho sakta hai ke service price inflasyon August mein thodi se barh jaye, lekin ismein saal bhar mein kami aane ki ummeed hai.

Federal Reserve ne faisla kiya ke faiz ki satah ko 5.25%-5.50% ke range mein barqarar rakhe, jo ke 8-wein martaba lagatar hai. Fed ne doosre quarter ke dauran inflasyon mein kami ka izhaar kiya, jis ne unko yeh yaqeen dilaya ke faiz ki satah mein kami ki guzarishat September meeting mein mumkin ho sakti hai. Lekin, Fed ne yeh bhi tasleem kiya ke unke dual mandate - yaani, maaksimum employment aur mustahkam qeematon se mutaliq risk ziada ho gaye hain.

GBP/USD ki Technical Analysis:

Agar yeh pair 1.3150 ke ahem satah ke neeche band ho jata hai, toh yeh 1.3100 ke test ka darwaza khol sakta hai aur mumkin hai ke psychological level 1.3050 tak bhi pohanch jaye. Iss support ke neeche girawat mazeed nuqsaan tak le ja sakti hai, lekin agar buyers 1.3000 ke resistance ko paar kar lete hain, jismein pichle kuch dinon tak price action ko rok kar rakha tha, toh rebound ho sakta hai. Abhi haal hi mein pair mein girawat aayi hai jo ke 1.3100 ke ahem support level ke neeche break hone se hui thi. Filhaal, 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) jo ke 1.3130 ke qareeb hai, Pound Sterling bulls ke liye zaruri support faraham kar raha hai. Iske ilawa, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) takreeban 40.00 tak gir gaya hai, jo ke short term mein momentum oscillator ke liye kuch madadgar sabit ho sakta hai.

GBPUSD Forum Analysis,Forecast

TF Daily reference pe aik bullish trend condition ab bhi dominant hai aur abhi ka downward movement sirf ek correction phase tak me mehdood hai, jo ke pehle ke barhawa se tha jab RSI 70 level pe overbought area me tha. Abhi bhi aik target hai jo lagta hai ke sellers ko poora karna hai, yeh RBS area range ke neeche 1.3042 pe.

Agar downward correction aur aage barhti hai to MA 50 (red) ke movement limit ko retest karne ka bhi mauka mil sakta hai jo ke lagbhag 1.2895 pe hai. Bullish trend ki direction ko follow karne ke liye, behtar yeh hoga ke downward phase khatam hone ka intezaar kiya jaye taake best price level pe re-entry buy ka mauka mile. Iss case me, ek short-term sales plan ko pehle consider kiya ja sakta hai kyunki downward momentum lagta hai ke jari rahega phir bullish phase ko aage barhne se pehle.

Sales plan ki consideration me, sab se nazdeek TP ko RBS area tak pahunchane ki soch sakte hain jo ke lagbhag 1.3042 pe hai aur risk loss limit ko previous Sunday market session ke high area ke upar rakh sakte hain jo ke lagbhag 1.3197 pe hai. Re-entry buy ke liye, pending order ko 1.3040 se 1.3050 ke range me rakhna consider kiya ja sakta hai. Price level ke range se target increase ki planning ki ja sakti hai jisse bullish efforts ko previous week ke highest price limit tak pahunchaya ja sake jo ke 1.3264 ke aas-paas hai aur base ko upar rally aage barha sakte hain.

**GBP/USD Forum Analysis aur Forecast:**

H4 time frame ke hawale se dekha jaye to is waqt downward condition nazar aa rahi hai jo ke pehle ke overbought area RSI 70 level ke upar chalne ke baad ek correction phase ka izhar kar rahi hai. Abhi ka downward movement MA 50 (red) limit ko paar kar chuka hai, jo mazeed downward efforts ka imkaan kholta hai taake agla MA area, yani MA 100 (green) jo 1.3030 ke range mein hai, tak pohcha jaye. Aage chal kar bearish correction MA 200 (blue) ki movement limit jo 1.2937 ke range mein hai, ko bhi test kar sakti hai. Short term mein, lagta hai ke sale ka plan abhi bhi consider kiya ja sakta hai jab tak price apne qareebi resistance area 1.3197 ke upar move nahi karti.

Misal ke taur par agar is price level ke upar breakout hota hai, to yeh mazeed bullish efforts ka imkaan khol dega jisme agla higher banaya ja sakta hai jo ke crucial resistance area ke upar, yani 1.3264 ke range tak jata hai. Short-term sell option ko filhal 1.3140-1.3150 ke range se enter karne ka socha ja sakta hai. Decline ka target pehle TP 1 ko 1.3050 ke qareeb layega aur TP 2 demand area range jo ke MA 200 (blue) movement ke upar hai, yani 1.2970 ke aas paas. Sale plan mein stop loss limit ko 1.3200 level ke upar rakhna zaroori hai.

Buy plan ko continuation of the bullish trend ke liye consider karne ka socha ja sakta hai agar MA 100 (green) movement ke range mein bearish rejection condition ho, yani 1.3130-1.3150 ke beech mein. Target yeh hoga ke price ko pehle ke month ke highest price limit, yani 1.3264 ke range tak pohchaya jaye aur uske upar Zero area, yani 1.3300 ke range ko test kiya jaye. H4 TF mein bullish trend us waqt invalid ho jaye ga agar seller ne Zero area ko push karke MA 200 movement limit ke neeche yani 1.2900 ke range tak le aaya.

GBP/USD Forum Analysis,Forecast


Yeh analysis H4 TF reference ke mutabiq hai. Jab pehle ki increase RSI 70 level par overbought area ke upar chali gayi thi, to aik downward correction phase ki zaroorat thi. Ab ke downward movement ne MA 50 (red) limit ko penetrate kar diya hai, jisse ke downward efforts ki aur bhi mumkinat hai taake agle MA area, jo ke MA 100 (green) ke around 1.3030 hai, tak pohncha ja sake. Agar bearish correction aur bhi chalti hai, to MA 200 (blue) movement limit jo ke 1.2937 ke range mein hai, ko test karne ki bhi sambhavnayein hain. Short term mein, jab tak price apne sab se qareeb resistance area 1.3197 ke upar nahi jati, tab tak sell plan ko consider kiya ja sakta hai.

Agar uss price level ke upar breakout hota hai, to bullish efforts ko continue karna mumkin hai aur crucial resistance area ke upar new higher banane ki bhi possibility hai, jo ke 1.3264 ke range mein hai. Short-term sell option abhi 1.3140-1.3150 ke range se enter karne par consider kiya ja sakta hai. Decline ke target ke liye TP 1 1.3050 ke level tak aur TP 2 MA 200 (blue) ke upar demand area range 1.2970 tak plan kiya ja sakta hai. Sell plan ko 1.3200 ke upar stop loss limit rakh kar place kiya ja sakta hai.

Buy plan ko bullish trend ke continuation ke liye consider kiya ja sakta hai, agar bearish rejection MA 100 (green) ke movement range 1.3130-1.3150 mein hoti hai. Target yeh hai ke increase karna highest price limit of the previous month jo ke 1.3264 ke range mein hai, aur Zero area jo ke 1.3300 ke range mein hai, tak pohnchne ki koshish karna. H4 TF mein bullish trend tab invalid hoga agar sellers Zero area ko MA 200 ke movement limit se niche le jaane mein kamyaab ho jaate hain, jo ke 1.2900 ke range mein hai.

GBP/USD Forum Analysis, Forecast

H4 TF ki reference ke mutabiq, ab downward condition chal rahi hai, jo ke ek correction phase ke liye hai, jab ke pichla izafa overbought area ke upar move kar gaya tha, yani RSI ke 70 level se. Jo current downward movement hai, usne MA 50 (red) ka limit tor diya hai, jo ke aage mazid downward movement ke imkaan ko kholti hai, aur agla MA area, yani MA 100 (green) ke range mein, yani 1.3030 tak pochne ka chance deti hai. Mazid bearish corrections ka imkaan hai ke MA 200 (blue) ka movement limit, yani 1.2937 ke range mein test karein.

Short term mein lagta hai ke sale plan ko abhi bhi consider kiya ja sakta hai jab tak price apne kareebi resistance area, yani 1.3197 ke range ke upar move nahi karta.

Agar, misal ke taur par, us price level ke upar breakout hota hai, tou phir mazid bullish efforts ke imkaan khul jaate hain, jo ke naye higher ko form karne ki koshish karein, jo ke crucial resistance area se upar, yani 1.3264 ke range mein hoga. Short-term sell ka option filhal consider kiya ja sakta hai, 1.3140-1.3150 ke range se entry karte hue. Jo decline ka target hai us price level range se, wo TP 1 ka plan level 1.3050 ko target kar sakta hai, aur TP 2 demand area ke range ko MA 200 (blue) ke movement ke upar, yani 1.2970 ko plan kar sakta hai. Sell plan ka stop loss limit 1.3200 level ke upar rakha ja sakta hai.

Buy plan jo ke bullish trend ko continue karte hue hoga, wo uswaqt consider kiya ja sakta hai jab bearish rejection condition ho, MA 100 (green) movement ke range mein yani 1.3130-1.3150. Target yeh hai ke price pichlay mahine ke highest price limit tak pochne ki koshish kare, yani 1.3264, aur Zero area ke upar 1.3300 ke range tak. Bullish trend H4 TF mein uswaqt invalid hoga agar seller Zero area ko MA 200 movement limit ke neeche push karne mein kamiyab ho jaye, jo ke 1.2900 ke range mein hai.

British Pound abhi 1.3200 ke qareeb US Dollar ke muqable mein stable hai jab ke traders US ke aanay walay economic data par nazar rakhay hue hain, khas tor par Core PCE Price Index, GDP estimates, aur Initial Jobless Claims. Khaas tor par Core PCE data important hai kyun ke yeh Fed ke aglay qadam ke baray mein umeedon ko shape kar sakta hai. Agar yeh data zyada strong hota hai, to chhoti rate cut ki umeed ho sakti hai jo USD ko mazid strong karega aur GBP/USD par pressure dalega. Aaj ka economic data bara ahmiyat rakhta hai. Agar PCE aur GDP expect se zyada strong hotay hain, to yeh aggressive Fed rate cuts ki umeedon ko kam kar sakta hai, jis se US Dollar mazid strong hoga aur Pound ke liye khatar ho sakte hain. Iske baraks, UK economy bhi focus mein hai jab ke Bank of England ke dosray rate cut par speculation ho rahi hai. In factors ke bawajood, GBP/USD pair ne 1.3200 ke qareeb resilience dikhayi hai.

Technical indicators abhi bhi pair ke liye potential upside ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain, lekin is kaafi kuch aaj ke US data par depend karta hai. Investors khaas tor par Core PCE inflation report mein interested hain, jo ke GBP/USD pair ke near-term mein key driver ban sakta hai. Result ke hisaab se, ya to pair 1.3500 ki taraf break kar sakta hai ya phir nayi selling pressure ka samna kar sakta hai.

British Pound ne 1.3200 ke level ke qareeb stability hasil kar li hai, lekin is ki agay ki direction ziada tar US ke aanay walay economic data par munhasir hai, khaas tor par Core PCE inflation report par. Yeh data market sentiment ko influence karne mein bara kirdar ada karega aur Pound ke aglay move ko drive karega. Is uncertainty ko barhawa Bank of England ke potential rate cut se mil raha hai, jo traders ke liye mazeed complexity paida kar raha hai.

Lower time frame chart par, British Pound par kuch downward pressure hai, lekin optimism ki ehsaas hai kyun ke is ne recovery ki signs dikhayi hain. Bulls se umeed hai ke woh dobara control hasil karenge aur GBP/USD pair mein bullish trend ko re-establish karenge. Traders ko in developments par kareebi nazar rakhni hogi taake apni strategies ko accordingly adjust kar sakein.

GBPUSD H1 time frame chart par currency pair ka behavior kafi interesting hai, khaaskar subah ke session se. GBPUSD ne upar ki taraf breakout karne ki koshish ki hai, jo bullish momentum ka signal ho sakta hai. Aakhri ghanton mein, pair ne diagonal resistance level ko successfully breach kiya hai, jo ke upar movement ke liye ek significant barrier tha. Yeh breakout ek shuruati indication ho sakta hai ke market sentiment buying ki taraf shift ho raha hai, jo ke naye upward trend ke establishment ki taraf ishara kar sakta hai. Magar, in positive signs ke bawajood, caution zaroori hai isse pehle ke puri tarah se uptrend ko embrace kiya jaye aur long positions commit ki jayein. Diagonal resistance ka breach ek positive technical development hai, jo traders ke liye bullish signal ke taur par interpret kiya jata hai. Aise resistance level ko break karna yeh indicate karta hai ke sellers jo pehle market ko control kar rahe the, unki grip kamzor ho rahi hai, aur buyers ko upper hand mil raha hai. Yeh control ka shift kabhi kabhi naye upward trend ko lead kar sakta hai, jab zyada traders long positions lena shuru karte hain, yeh expect karte hue ke pair aage bhi upar jayegi. Lekin, is potential breakout ko measured perspective se dekhna zaroori hai. Diagonal resistance ka breach hone se sirf yeh confirm nahi hota ke bullish trend sustainable hai. Financial markets mein false breakouts aam hote hain, jahan price temporarily resistance levels ke upar move karti hai aur phir tez reversal ke saath pehle ke trend par wapas aa jati hai. Isliye, additional confirmations dekhna zaroori hai before confidently naye upward trend ko declare karne se.sell limit position open karunga 1.2800 area mein aur agar us area mein rejection ho jata hai toh bearish validation GBP/USD pair pe create ho chuki hai aur phir price apne lowest zone ki taraf girti rahegi H4 timeframe pe. Aur hum TP target 1.2650 area mein set kar sakte hain TP1 ke liye aur agar price aur neeche jati hai toh 1.2600 area TP2 kaam karega. Phir worst case scenario ko anticipate karte hue, agar price white box area ke upar breakout kar jata hai, toh bullish reversal ka confirmation achi tarah se realize ho chuka hoga, aur phir hume buy position open karni hogi target increase ke sath resistance level 1.2900 pe TP1 aur 1.3050 pe TP2 ke tor pe. Shukriya aapki tawajju ka, guys, jo mere explanation ko suni. Umeed hai ke hum GBP/USD

GBP/USD Price Movement

GBP/USD ke H1 time frame ke mutabiq, price har baar XamaSystem indicator se bounce karti hai aur maximum update karti hai. Mujhe lagta hai ke yeh jaldi break hone wala hai. Agar price indicator ko upar se neeche break karti hai aur uske neeche consolidate karti hai, to hum hourly period MA120 ke average moving average ka test dekh sakte hain, jo ke 1.3151 par hai. Yahan main closely dekhunga ke price kaise behave karti hai. Agar rebound dekhen, to thoda GBP/USD khareedna mumkin hoga jiska goal 1.3265 tak growth ka hoga. Mujhe lagta hai ke 1.3300 tak growth ka potential hai. Uske baad, mujhe reversal formation ki ummeed hai aur ek super sale ka plan hai 1.2800 aur usse neeche. Dusri taraf, agar MACD ko dekha jaye, to yeh bhi indicate karta hai ke price aage bhi gir sakti hai. Agar price girti hai aur red trendline ko break karti hai, to aur zyada bearishness ke liye raasta khulega. Bas yahi aaj ka update hai. Umeed hai yeh aapke liye useful hoga, aur apne tajurbaat comments section mein share karna na bhoolen.



Neeche diya gaya chart GBP/USD exchange rate ko dikhata hai. Quote mein growth ke miracles dikhai de rahe hain, jo ke Bank of England ki policy aur UK ke budget ke haal ke madde nazar ajeeb lagta hai. Aaj ki Asian session ke doran US dollar ki halki strengthening ne GBP/USD quotes ko 1.3264 ke current local maximum se rollback kiya, jabke reversal ke bare mein abhi kuch kehna mushkil hai. Pair ka upward slope abhi bhi hai, lekin bears ke paas achi chance hai ke quotes ko blue moving average tak rollback kar sakein. Jab tak quotes is moving average ke upar hain, downward correction ke prospects extremely doubtful hain. Lekin yeh mathematics hai, jahan issue ka price lagbhag 350 points hai, lekin kya hum Friday tak is target tak pohnch sakenge, yeh abhi sawal hai. Yeh meri opinion hai. Aur yeh neeche diye gaye picture mein hai. Tuesday ko GBP/USD pair ne naye multi-year high ko attempt kiya tha uske baad 1.3266 ke 29-month top par gir gaya jab pound sterling ne greenback ke widespread selloff se faida uthaya. US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation readings Friday ko expected hain, investors ne September ke liye Federal Reserve (Fed) se rate decrease ki ummeed laga rakhi hai, jiski wajah se markets ke paas aaj ke liye substantive data kam hai. UK ke economic calendar mein noteworthy events ki kami hai, aur Wednesday ko Atlantic paar kaafi low-key din hone ki ummeed hai. US market day ke shuru mein, Fedspeak traders Christopher Waller ke speech ko dekhenge, jabke central bank observers Bank of England (BoE) ke policymaker Catherine Mann ke speech ko dekhenge jo London markets ke band hone ke baad scheduled hai.

GBP/USD ka Raasta Tay Karna

GBP/USD pair mein kal izafa hua, jabke US dollar market mein aam tor par aur pound ke muqablay mein bhi girawat ki taraf gaya. Yeh ab uthane walay khameer ki tarah barh rahe hain, lekin is senior season H4 ke dauran is baat ke asaar hain ke ek nayi girawat shuru honay wali hai. Sab se pehle, agar aap target Fibonacci grid ko pehli wave par lagayein, toh aap dekhein ge ke pehla target (is grid par level 161.8) aur doosra target (level 200) dono hi hasil kiye ja chuke hain, jo guzishta saal July ke muqabil mein zyada hain. Iske ilawa, senior period ki pehli aur teesri wave (jo zard rang mein numayan ki gayi hai) lagbhag ek hi size ki hain; haqeeqat mein teesri wave bari hai; yeh is baat ki nishani hai ke poora cycle mukammal ho chuka hai. Yeh aam tor par poori ulat ya chauthi wave ki correction ka sabab banta hai. Mazeed yeh ke CCI indicator par triple bearish divergence ya sell signal nazar aaraha hai jo istemal kiya ja raha hai. Senior daily chart par bhi yeh indicator overheated zone se neeche ki taraf utarne ki koshish kar raha hai. Yeh bhi yaad rakhne ki zarurat hai ke kal ke izafay ne qareeb qareeb price ko resistance level 1.3136 tak pohanchaya, jo ek ahem weekly level hai aur guzishta saal July ka peak hai. Qeemat ko mazeed barhanay ya shayad ulatnay se pehle chauthi wave ki correction zaroori hogi. 1.3036 support level aur do wave bottoms par bani hui upar uthti hui line girawat ke maqasid hain. Aaj ke khabron mein yeh baat qabil-e-zikr hai: pehli bar bekarri ke faidye ke liye darkhwaston ki tadaad aur Moscow time ke mutabiq 15:30 par kul haqdaaran ki tadaad. US service ke business activity index (PMI) ka range 16 se 45 tak hai Neeche GBP/USD ka daily chart diya gaya hai. Bechne walon ki tadaad khareedne walon se kam hai, kyun ke agar aisa hota, toh quote ne pehle hi niche gir jaana hota bajaye ke izafa ho raha hai. Market mein seller hain lekin unka volume khareedne walon ke muqablay mein zyada nahi hai. Jab khareedne walay apni khareedariyan theek karna shuru karenge, toh baat alag hogi, lekin izafa pehle hi dheema ho chuka hai, aur yeh imkaan hai ke aaj khareedari ki theek saazi hogi, aur yeh sellers ke liye raasta kholegi. Yeh pair bahut zyada overbought hai aur iss saal ki qeematon ke muqablay mein mehngi ho chuki hai, isliye aap British ki shorting shuru kar sakte hain. Iss tarah, mojudah qeematon ke ilaqe mein aap har 40-50 points par ek sale ki grid ikathi karna shuru kar sakte hain aur Fibonacci grid ke 38.20% level par is non-rollback movement se nikal sakte hain, jo guzishta haftay hui thi aur jo 150 points se zyada ki non-rollback movement thi, kyun ke aise bulandiyon aur aise mehngi qeematon par is pair ko khareedne ke liye logon ki tadaad kam hoti jayegi aur unka volume kam hoga

British Pound ka Mandah Mode Abhi Bhi Jaari Hai
Monday ko British Pound (GBP) abhi bhi mandah mode mein hai. UK Manufacturing PMI expectations ke mutabiq 52.5 par aaya hai August mein. US Dollar Index steady hai, jabke US markets public holidays ke liye band hain.

British Pound (GBP) ne Monday ko European trading session mein halki si gains banayi rakhi hain, jabke US markets Labor Day ke silsile mein band hain. Iska matlab hai ke trading volumes bohot kam hain, a typical Monday se bhi patle. Halan ke UK market ne subha S&P Global/CIPS Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) ko digest karna para jo ke manufacturing sector ke liye expected 52.5 par raha.



Doosri taraf, US Dollar Index (DXY) – jo US Dollar ki value ko chay foreign currencies ke against measure karta hai – abhi bhi ek bara selloff se recover kar raha hai jo ke pichle haftay hua tha. Magar, pichle hafte Greenback ne kuch strong US economic data ki wajah se recovery ki thi, jo ke US Federal Reserve (Fed) se initial rate cut ko sirf 25 basis points tak limit kar sakta hai September mein. Is hafte aur zyada PMI data aane wale hain aur Friday ko US Jobs report bhi hogi, toh sab kuch is hafte ke data par depend karega taake agle hafte interest rate cut ke size ka taayun ho sake.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Kaafi High Levels

British Pound abhi kaafi high levels par trade kar raha hai, aise levels jo ke July 2023 ke baad se nahi dekhe gaye US Dollar ke against. Pichle hafte ka recent retracement welcome hai, aur ab wo traders jo GBP/USD mein long position lena chahte hain, unko support levels identify karna hoga jahaan se yeh sense banta hai ke year-to-date high, jo ke 1.3237 ke qareeb hai, ya phir 1.33 ke liye fresh high ke liye retest kiya jaaye.

Downside par, moving averages filhal door hain aur koi significant support nahi de rahi. Behtar hoga ke trend channel ke upper band par bounce ka wait kiya jaye, jo ke pichle chhay mahinon mein bohot ache se respect kiya gaya hai, aur yeh level 1.3120 ke aas-paas hai. Agar yeh level hold nahi karta, toh 1.3044 ek acha platform lagta hai jo August mein resistance ka kaam kar chuka hai. Agar aur zyada downfall hoti hai, toh 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) 1.2869 par hai, jo ke June 2023 se ek pivotal level 1.2849 ke qareeb hai, yeh dono 20 pips ke faasle par hain aur ek strong support area bana sakti hain.

GBP/USD H4 Chart
H4 time frame mein GBP/USD ka chart dikhata hai ke yeh 1.32332 ki price par inside bar pattern ke fifth projection ko test kar raha hai. Agar yeh resistance ko solidly break karta hai, toh SMA5 ke dynamic support ke saath, yeh agle projection 1.33058 ki taraf barhne ka mauqa hasil kar sakta hai. Agar yeh projection bhi penetrate hota hai, toh agle projection tak pohanchne ka chance barh jata hai. Lekin, agar yeh upar walay do projections se reject hota hai, toh is mein previous projection tak retrace hone ki potential hoti hai. Is surat mein, bearish trend ban sakta hai, jo head and shoulders pattern bana sakta hai, khaaskar agar yeh neckline ko RBS area mein 1.31788 ki price par break kar leta hai.




Recent Forecasts

Haal hi ke andar, kuch forecasts yeh suggest karte hain ke Bank of England (BoE) apni August meeting mein, pehli dafa char saalon se zyada arsay ke baad, interest rates cut kar sakta hai. July 18 se July 24 ke darmiyan ki gayi Reuters ki ek poll se yeh maloom hota hai ke 80% se zyada economists yeh expect karte hain ke BoE apni key borrowing rate 25 basis points (bps) se kam karke 5% kar sakta hai. Yeh shift BoE ke us restrictive monetary policy se nikalne ka ishara hai jo pandemic ke baad se apply thi. Lekin, BoE ke officials ki taraf se koi clear endorsement na milne ki wajah se expectations ko thora temper kiya gaya hai, aur traders ab 46% probability dekh rahe hain ke policy normalization ki taraf pivot kiya ja sakta hai. In uncertainties ke bawajood, UK ki recent economic reports kuch positive news dikhati hain. July ke liye preliminary S&P Global/CIPS report ne third quarter ka strong start dikhaya hai, jahan Composite PMI 52.7 tak barh gaya hai, jo estimates ke 52.6 aur previous figure 52.3 se zyada hai. Yeh improvement manufacturing aur service sectors mein barhti hui activity ko reflect karta hai, jahan Manufacturing PMI 51.8 tak pohanch gaya hai aur Services PMI 52.4 tak barh gaya hai. Yeh numbers broader concerns ke bawajood ek resilient economic performance ko suggest karte hain.

GBP/USD Price Opportunities
GBP/USD currency pair ki price behavior ki analysis abhi discussion ke liye khuli hui hai. GBP/USD pair gradual bearish correction mein dakhil ho gaya hai. Aap yeh kyun samajhte hain ke price sirf 1.2664 se 1.3264 ki wave ka 50% retrace kar sakta hai? Yeh kyun 61.7% ya 76.3% tak nahi gir sakta? Aapki reasoning ko zyada wazeh hona chahiye. Agar yeh sirf aapka personal estimate hai, toh please wazeh karen—sahi baat ko sahi naam se pukarna achi baat hai jab tak is context mein koi ban ka risk na ho. Mujhe yeh mumkinat nazar aati hai ke aapke 50% mark 1.2963 se neeche ja sakta hai. Mera minimum target mere expectations ke mutabiq 1.2779 zone mein hai, lekin pehle mein 1.3019 region ke liye aim kar raha hoon. Mere paas ek strategy hai aur mein din ke andar sell karne ka plan bana raha hoon. Agle hafte ke end tak hum 1.3499 ke aas paas, ya kam az kam is target ke qareeb close karenge.



Monday se, mujhe umeed hai ke GBP/USD pair 1.3064 support level ki taraf girna jaari rakhega. Pair market ke opening par downward move karna shuru kar sakta hai, kyun ke bearish momentum jo kal shuru hui thi abhi tak ongoing hai. Lekin, ek choti pullback ka chance bhi hai 1.3149 resistance tak, jahan se ek reversal wapas 1.3064 tak ho sakta hai. Agar resistance 1.3149 breach hota hai, aur pair iske upar stabilize ho jata hai, toh humein ek fresh upward impulse ke liye tayar rehna chahiye 1.3319 ki taraf. Agar 1.3064 break hota hai, toh mujhe lagta hai ke price 1.2969 ki taraf decline karega, lekin mujhe shak hai ke hum shayad 1.299 par hold karenge aur wapas reverse honge. Pair ka neeche girna mumkin hai 1.299 ke neeche, khaaskar jab ke yeh is saal ka chotha martaba hai jab yeh level test hua hai lekin sustain nahi kar saka. Chances barh rahe hain ke hum is correction phase ke doran 1.299 se neeche nahi girenge.

GBP/USD
Aaj ka focus GBP/USD currency pair ke price movements ka analysis hai. GBP/USD pair ke liye, ek expanding formation ka hona mumkin tha, jo fifth wave se takreeban 101 points neeche tha. Iske natije mein, price formation se breakout ke baad 451 points upar gayi, aur expected target ko 400 se zyada exceed kar diya. Aam taur par, breakout ke baad fourth wave ke barabar movement ki umeed hoti hai, fifth wave ke barabar nahi. Lekin is baar, yeh fifth wave ke hisaab se calculate kiya gaya, jo mere liye ek significant missed opportunity thi.




Market price review mein koi tabdeeli nahi hai. Is area ko monitor karna future movements ko determine karne ke liye zaroori hoga, aur koi bhi further developments best course of action ko identify karne mein madadgar sabit hongi.

GBP/USD ke volumes ko closely scrutinize karna zaroori hoga. Pichle Friday, chart ne robust bullish momentum aur high volume show kiya, jo aksar price rally ke culmination ka signal hota hai. Agar yeh assessment sahi hai, to market open hone par pair upar nahi move kar sakti. Agar yeh last price action top par liquidity ko puri tarah absorb kar chuki hai, to price ko upar push karne ka koi incentive nahi hoga. Aise scenario mein bearish price signal emerge ho sakta hai, khas taur par agar volume patterns isay confirm karte hain. Agar yeh bearish signal materialize hota hai, to hum 1.3028 level ke aas paas ke accumulation area ki taraf significant downward move dekh sakte hain. Agar market is price direction mein move karti hai, to yeh agle steps ke liye zyada precise indications provide karegi.

GBP/USD
Is hafte, pair ki price ek price triangle ke andar trade hui jo do bullish aur bearish channels se bana hua tha, jo pichle do hafton ki price movement ko represent karta hai.

Iska matlab hai, agar price lower third line ke qareeb hai, to qareeb ke waqt trend upar ki taraf hoga, jo upper triangle line tak jayega. Price ki agle direction ko determine karne ke liye, hum triangle lines ke saath price ke behaviour ka intezar kar sakte hain.

Chart ke mutabiq, price pichle kuch hafton se sideways chal rahi hai. Pichle hafte, price ek mazboot upward wave mein chali, lekin haftay ke darmiyan price ne downward trend shuru kar diya, jo pichli upward wave ke barabar tha. Qareeb ke waqt, price ko weekly pivot level 1.3090 se support mil raha hai, jo upward trend ko weekly resistance level 1.3145 tak support karta hai.





Abhi ke level par, jo ek buying level hai, lower triangle line aur weekly pivot level support provide karte hain. Isliye, hum buy kar sakte hain, stop loss level weekly pivot level ke neeche set kar sakte hain, aur target upper triangle line ke neeche set kar sakte hain. Ek second level resistance level 1.3150 ke upar hai, jo is hafte bhi buying level hoga, kyunki hum price ka triangle ke upar aur 1.3110 level ke upar stabilize hone ka intezar kar sakte hain phir buying mein enter kar sakte hain. Teesra point yeh hai ke weekly pivot level ke neeche aur triangle breakdown ke baad selling level ho sakta hai, aur target level weekly support level 1.3020 ke upar adjust ho sakta hai, jo weekly pivot level ke neeche selling level ko represent karta hai.