gbp/usd

GBP/USD pair ne haal hi mein interesting dynamics dikhayi hain, khaaskar hourly chart par. 50-day moving average (MA50) ke downward pressure ko break karne ke baad, ab yeh pair 100-day moving average (MA100) se potential resistance ka saamna kar raha hai. Yeh resistance kisi bhi short-term mein significant upward movement ko rok sakta hai, khaaskar jab ke stochastic indicator abhi bhi upward momentum dikhara hai.

Haalan ke current uptrend nazar arahi hai, lekin recent rally ka steep incline yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh momentum shayad sustainable na ho. Market filhal ek uncertainty ki state mein hai aur apni next move ko carefully weigh kar raha hai. Is situation ne ek complex trading environment create kar diya hai jahan yeh pair shayad thodi si southern correction undergo kare, us ke baad shayad apni upward trajectory resume kare. Key resistance level jo dekhne wali hai wo 1.2645 ke aas-paas hai, jo ke pair ke liye ek critical turning point ho sakta hai.

### GBP/USD ke liye Potential Scenarios

**1. Reversal aur Downward Movement:**

Pehli scenario yeh consider karna hai ke agar 1.2580 resistance level par ek reversal hoti hai. Agar is point par reversal candle form hoti hai, toh yeh market sentiment mein shift indicate kar sakta hai, jo shayad downward trend ki resumption ki taraf le jaye. Is scenario mein pair shayad lower support levels ko test kare, khaaskar agar current rally apna momentum sustain karne mein naakam hoti hai.

**2. Upward Movement ka Continuation:**

Dusri taraf, agar GBP/USD pair resistance level 1.2780 ko break karne mein kaamyaab ho jata hai, toh yeh bullish trend ke continuation ko confirm karega. Aisi move market ke pair ko further upward push karne ke liye ready hone ka signal de sakti hai. Is scenario mein, traders ko sustained buying pressure ko dekhna chahiye jo ke pair ko naye highs ki taraf drive kar sakta hai.

### Key Levels Jo Monitor Karni Chahiye

Kal ke price action par nazar daalain, toh pair ne apne kuch gains wapas de diye, jo suggest karta hai ke 1.2689 ke aas-paas resistance abhi bhi ek significant hurdle hai. Agar yeh level dobara test hota hai, toh yeh potential pullback ka sabab ban sakta hai. Lekin, 1.2600 ke aas-paas local Bollinger Band ke qareeb support bhi significant hai. Agar yeh pair is support level ke upar hold karne mein naakam hota hai aur is ke neeche break karta hai, toh market mein further downside potential nazar aa sakti hai, jahan targets lower rail 1.2705 ke aas-paas ho sakte hain.

Currency Pair Review: GBP/USD

Currency pair GBP/USD ne haali mein Wednesday ko Asian session ke dauran significant buying activity ka dhyan khinchha hai. Pichle hafte 1.3045 par peak karne ke baad—aik saal ka highest level—ye pair ab 1.3062 ke aaspaas stabilize ho gaya hai. Yeh daily basis par 1.10% se zyada ka noticeable increase hai, lekin yeh abhi bhi Friday ke one-week high ke qareeb hai. Current price movements ek momentary pause ko suggest karte hain in its corrective slide, jo ke future developments ke potential ka ishara hai.

Market Dynamics: US Dollar Weakens Amid Political Shifts While British Pound Gains Support

Naye hafte ke shuru hone par, US Dollar (USD) weaker performance ka shikaar hai, jo ke recent political developments ke asar se hai. Weekend par, President Joe Biden ne 2024 Presidential race se withdraw hone ka announcement kiya. Yeh unexpected shift Donald Trump ke chances ko presidency jeetne ke liye barhaata hai, jo ke saath mein Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein interest rates cut karne ki anticipation ke saath, USD ke safe-haven appeal ko kam kar raha hai. Is environment mein riskier assets ko zyada support mil raha hai, jo indirectly GBP/USD pair ko support kar raha hai.

Is ke muqablay, British Pound (GBP) ko Bank of England (BoE) ke is August mein immediate interest rate cut ki expectations ke kam hone se support mil raha hai. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill ne indicate kiya hai ke abhi bhi persistent domestic inflation ko address karne ke liye challenges hain. UK consumer inflation June mein forecast se thoda zyada 2% YoY increase ke saath thi, aur May mein GDP growth 0.4% se better-than-expected rahi. Yeh factors investors ko apni projections dobara dekhne par majboor kar rahe hain, aur near-term rate cut ki expectations ko push back kar rahe hain.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD Faces Key Resistance and Support Levels

In developments ke bawajood, pair ne haali mein sharp correction ka samna kiya hai, USD ke muqablay 1.3065 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai. Pair ne resistance ka samna kiya aur 1.3044 ke fresh annual high ke baad kamzor ho gaya. Agar pair 1.3080 level ko break kar leti hai, to yeh 1.3120 region ki taraf rise kar sakti hai. Lekin, hourly chart par Bearish Belt Hold candlestick pattern ka nazar aana—jo aam taur par sharp rally ke baad dekha jata hai—yeh suggest karta hai ke bearish reversal confirm nahi hai, lekin caution zaroor zaroori hai.

Technical Indicators and GBP/USD Outlook

Technical indicators support the view that the uptrend for GBP/USD may still be intact. Currently, the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is near 1.3032, shows that upward momentum is ongoing. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) has recently declined from overbought conditions and is expected to find support around the 60.00 mark.

Resistance Levels

The GBP/USD pair is facing significant resistance near the two-year high of 1.3141. A breakout beyond this level could signify a crucial shift for the pair. However, the high near 1.31440 remains a key resistance level for bullish GBP sentiments. If the pair manages to break through these resistance points, it could further bolster the uptrend and indicate stronger bullish momentum.

GBP/USD Price Movement Overview

Hamari guftagu GBP/USD currency pair ke price action ke live tajziye par markaz hai. GBP/USD pair ne haal hi mein apne bullish target 1.3043 ko achieve kiya, jahan significant resistance ka saamna karna pada. Ab ek pullback ki umeed hai, jo technical indicators ko theek karne ke liye zaroori hai. Main pair ko bechne ki sifarish karta hoon, aur umeed hai ke price 1.2959 ke niche gir jayegi, aur shayad 1.2869 tak bhi break ho sakti hai. Technical outlook yeh darshata hai ke pair ka ek trend ho sakta hai, jaisa ke Zigzag indicators bhi support karte hain, jo oversold zone mein hain aur long buy positions ko favor kar rahe hain. Filhaal, bulls ki current strength aur activity ko dekhte hue, main profits lock karne ka plan bana raha hoon jab pair 61.8% Fibonacci target tak pohanchti hai, jo ke 1.30928 par hai. Lekin safety ke liye, main order ko break-even par le aunga jaise hi yeh positive zone mein enter karegi. Haal hi mein corrective decline ke bawajood, channel ki upper boundary ab tak break nahi hui, jo ke growth ke wapas aane ki substantial likelihood ko darshata hai.

British Pound Market Dynamics Analysis

British pound ke market dynamics ka tajziya jaari rakhte hue, daily chart par dekhte hain ke local low 1.2299 se rebound karne ke baad, pair upar ki taraf move kar rahi hai aur ek mazboot ascending price channel ban gaya hai. Filhaal, British pound 1.3029 par trade kar raha hai is channel ke andar. Is bullish channel ki upper boundary abhi bhi faasle par hai, jo ke ek possible corrective decline ka ishara deti hai. Lekin, ek secondary upward channel bhi hai jo sideways slope ke sath hai, aur iski upper boundary bhi abhi tak likely hai.

Price apne current level se continue rise kar sakti hai aur lagbhag 1.3049 ya 1.3054 tak ja sakti hai, jahan resistance ka saamna karne ke baad potential corrective decline ho sakta hai. Buyers ke liye target bullish channel ki upper limit hai, jo 1.3049 ke aas paas intersect kar sakti hai.

GBP/USD pair ne haal hi mein interesting dynamics dikhayi hain, khaaskar hourly chart par. 50-day moving average (MA50) ke downward pressure ko break karne ke baad, ab yeh pair 100-day moving average (MA100) se potential resistance ka saamna kar raha hai. Yeh resistance kisi bhi short-term mein significant upward movement ko rok sakta hai, khaaskar jab ke stochastic indicator abhi bhi upward momentum dikhara hai.

Haalan ke current uptrend nazar arahi hai, lekin recent rally ka steep incline yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh momentum shayad sustainable na ho. Market filhal ek uncertainty ki state mein hai aur apni next move ko carefully weigh kar raha hai. Is situation ne ek complex trading environment create kar diya hai jahan yeh pair shayad thodi si southern correction undergo kare, us ke baad shayad apni upward trajectory resume kare. Key resistance level jo dekhne wali hai wo 1.2645 ke aas-paas hai, jo ke pair ke liye ek critical turning point ho sakta hai.

### GBP/USD ke liye Potential Scenarios

**1. Reversal aur Downward Movement:**

Pehli scenario yeh consider karna hai ke agar 1.2580 resistance level par ek reversal hoti hai. Agar is point par reversal candle form hoti hai, toh yeh market sentiment mein shift indicate kar sakta hai, jo shayad downward trend ki resumption ki taraf le jaye. Is scenario mein pair shayad lower support levels ko test kare, khaaskar agar current rally apna momentum sustain karne mein naakam hoti hai.

**2. Upward Movement ka Continuation:**

Dusri taraf, agar GBP/USD pair resistance level 1.2780 ko break karne mein kaamyaab ho jata hai, toh yeh bullish trend ke continuation ko confirm karega. Aisi move market ke pair ko further upward push karne ke liye ready hone ka signal de sakti hai. Is scenario mein, traders ko sustained buying pressure ko dekhna chahiye jo ke pair ko naye highs ki taraf drive kar sakta hai.

### Key Levels Jo Monitor Karni Chahiye

Kal ke price action par nazar daalain, toh pair ne apne kuch gains wapas de diye, jo suggest karta hai ke 1.2689 ke aas-paas resistance abhi bhi ek significant hurdle hai. Agar yeh level dobara test hota hai, toh yeh potential pullback ka sabab ban sakta hai. Lekin, 1.2600 ke aas-paas local Bollinger Band ke qareeb support bhi significant hai. Agar yeh pair is support level ke upar hold karne mein naakam hota hai aur is ke neeche break karta hai, toh market mein further downside potential nazar aa sakti hai, jahan targets lower rail 1.2705 ke aas-paas ho sakte hain.

### Conclusion

Haal ke market conditions ko dekhte hue, shayad wait-and-see approach apnaana behtar rahe. GBP/USD pair filhal ek crossroads par hai, jahan dono bullish aur bearish scenarios possible hain. Yeh zaroori hai ke market conditions ko closely monitor karain aur unke mutabiq apni

**GBP/USD Paar ki Analysis - August 21, 2024**

GBP/USD exchange rate ne Wednesday ko 10 basis points aur izafa kiya.

Wave pattern abhi bhi kaafi complex aur ambiguous hai. Kuch waqt ke liye, wave pattern kaafi convincing lag raha tha, jo ke downward wave set ke formation ka ishara kar raha tha aur targets 1.23 level ke neeche de raha tha. Magar, practically, U.S. dollar ke liye demand itni zyada badh gayi ke yeh scenario play nahi ho saka.

Abhi, wave pattern thoda unreadable ho gaya hai. Main yeh yaad dilana chahunga ke meri analysis mein, main simple structures use karta hoon, kyunki complex ones mein bahut saare nuances aur ambiguous aspects hote hain. Abhi hum ek upward wave dekh rahe hain jo ke downward wave ko overlap kar raha hai, jo phir pehle ke upward wave ko overlap kar raha hai, aur aise hi aage badh raha hai (yeh saare waves ek triangle ke andar hain). Sirf ek assumption banai ja sakti hai ke yeh expanding triangle hai jiska upper point around 1.30 level hai aur equilibrium line around 1.26. Triangle ka upper line reach ho chuka hai, aur breakthrough attempt fail hone se market ka downward wave set banane ka signal mila hai, jismein se pehla complete ho chuka hai aur doosra near completion hai.

**Commerzbank ka Interesting Perspective**

GBP/USD exchange rate ne Wednesday ko 10 basis points aur izafa kiya, lekin din ke end tak yeh kaafi zyada bhi badh sakta hai. Har koi correction ke hone ki aadat mein hai pehle ek naye impulse ke. Paanch din ke lagataar growth ke baad, pound ne 50 basis points bhi correct nahi kiya. Isliye, buyers abhi extremely strong hain, aur pound bina kisi limitations ke rise kar sakta hai.

Mere nazariye se, jo cheez is naye surge ko rok sakti hai woh hai expanding triangle ke upper line. Saath hi, yeh bhi note karna chahiye ke wave structure ne teen-wave corrective structure ka formation suggest kiya, jo ke abhi tak dekhne ko nahi mila. Toh, situation abhi bhi complicated aur confusing ban rahi hai, halanki current movement kaafi simple lag raha hai.

Commerzbank ke economists ne aaj report kiya ke pound par thoda pressure tha. Mujhe nahi pata ke unhone yeh pressure kahan dekha, shayad unke paas aise trading charts hain jahan pound consistently pull back kar raha hai. Bank ne yeh bhi kaha ke pound agle months mein rise karta reh sakta hai UK mein rising inflation ke saath. Main yeh yaad dilana chahunga ke UK mein inflation 2.2% tak pahuncha hai, jabke U.S. mein yeh 2.9% tak gir gaya hai. Isliye, pound rise kar raha hai (kyunki inflation rise kar raha hai), aur dollar gir raha hai (kyunki inflation gir raha hai). Yeh logic leading analysts ka hai is waqt. Commerzbank ne British economy ke recovery (0.6% growth in second quarter) aur stable government (Labour, jo ke 14 saalon se power mein nahi thi) ke prospects bhi note kiye hain.

GBP/USD ka wave pattern ab bhi decline ka ishara de raha hai. Agar upward trend April 22 ko shuru hua tha, toh yeh already ek five-wave form le chuka hai. Isliye, kisi bhi case mein, humein ab kam se kam ek three-wave correction ki ummed karni chahiye. Mere nazariye se, aane wale waqt mein instrument ko sell karna advisable hai targets around 1.2627 (jo ke 38.2% Fibonacci level se milta hai) aur lower ke liye. Lekin, clear sell signal ki zarurat hai short positions open karne ke liye. Current growth ke madde nazar, wait thoda lamba ho sakta hai.

GBP/USD Price Movement

GBP/USD currency pair ke pricing ka real-time analysis dekhtay hue, iske barhne ke potential ko dekhna hai. Yeh barhna tabhi mumkin hai jab resistance level 1.3041 ko tod diya jaye. Abhi yeh level barqarar hai, magar overbought conditions balance ho chuki hain kyunki aaj market mein significant selling volumes aaye hain. Investors shayad upcoming Fed minutes ke liye positioning kar rahe hain, lekin situation abhi bhi uncertain hai. Abhi trading range 1.3041 aur 1.3011 ke darmiyan hai, aur crucial support EMA20 aur ascending channel ke lower boundary pe 1.2971 pe hai. Agar pair is level se neeche girti hai, toh yeh channel se bahar ja sakti hai, jo ke further decline ka signal ho sakta hai. Lekin abhi ke liye, upward impulse ka possibility barqarar hai. Dollar ki kamzori ka kuch wajah ho sakti hai, jaise ke U.S. stock indices ki recovery, September mein rate cut ki ummeed, aur presidential election ke aas paas uncertainties.

Maine kal GBP/USD pair ke liye ek bearish scenario outline kiya tha, jahan dollar ki kamzori American economic developments ke against aur bhi barh sakti hai. Mere analysis ke mutabiq, monthly resistance zone ki upper line abhi bhi 100 points se kam door hai, aur isse downside ki taraf turn hone ke chances barh rahe hain. Critical level jo dekhna hai woh 1.3130 hai, aur aaj dekhenge ke market is point ko surpass kar pati hai ya nahi. Bulls abhi bhi surrender nahi kar rahe, aur bears ko momentum gain nahi karne de rahe. H1 chart pe sirf ek minor pullback hui hai. Ab ek maximum test ho raha hai, aur upper Bollinger band upward movement ka rasta khol raha hai. Yeh signal pullback ko negate kar sakta hai aur upward trend ko continue karwa sakta hai, agar bulls 1.3052 ke max ko surpass karte hain. Bearish activity abhi bhi minimal hai, kyunki unhone MA121 ko H4 chart pe break nahi kiya aur wahan sustain nahi kar paaye. MA11 se rebound karna situation ko drastic tarike se badal sakta hai.

Currency pair ne haal hi mein bazaar ki nazar ko apni taraf khinch liya hai, khaaskar Asian session ke doran Wednesday ko jab khareedari mein khub soorat izafa dekha gaya. Pichle hafte 1.3045 tak pohnchnay ke baad—aik saal ki sab se uchi level—the pair ab 1.3062 ke aas paas musannad hai. Yeh ek aham rozana izafa hai, jo 1.10% se zyada hai, magar yeh ab bhi ek haftay ki uchai ke qareeb hai jo Friday ko record hui thi. Haal ki price movements is baat ka ishara deti hain ke iska correction temporarily ruk gaya hai, aur future developments ka bhi ishara ho sakta hai.

**Market Dynamics: US Dollar Kamzor Hota Hai Political Changes Ki Wajah Se, Jabke British Pound Ko Madad Milti Hai**

Jese hi naye haftay ki shuruat hoti hai, US Dollar (USD) kamzor performance ka samna kar raha hai, jo ke recent political developments ki wajah se hai. Weekend par President Joe Biden ne 2024 Presidential race se apne hatne ka elan kiya. Yeh ghaflati shift Donald Trump ki jeet ke chances ko barhata hai, aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ki taraf se September mein interest rates cut hone ki umeedon ke sath, safe-haven USD ki appeal kam ho rahi hai. Is environment ne riskier assets ki taraf favorable stance ko janam diya hai, jo indirectly GBP/USD pair ko support de raha hai.

Is ke muqabil, British Pound (GBP) ko Bank of England (BoE) ke taraf se interest rate cut ki umeedon mein kami ka faida ho raha hai. BoE ke Chief Economist Huw Pill ne izhaar kiya hai ke abhi bhi kuch challenges hain jo persistent domestic inflation ko address karne se pehle hain. UK ki consumer inflation ne June mein forecast se thoda zyada izafa dekha, 2% YoY ke sath, aur GDP growth bhi May mein 0.4% ke behtareen figures ke sath aayi. Yeh factors ne investors ko apne projections ko dobara se dekhne par majboor kiya, aur near-term rate cut ki umeedon ko push back kar diya.

**Technical Analysis: GBP/USD Ka Samna Ahem Resistance Aur Support Levels Se**

In developments ke bawajood, pair ne haal hi mein teekha correction dekha hai, USD ke muqablay mein lagbhag 1.3065 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. Pair ne resistance ka samna kiya aur 1.3044 ki ek naye saal ki high ke baad kamzor ho gaya. Agar pair 1.3080 level ko break kar leta hai, toh yeh 1.3120 region ki taraf barh sakta hai. Magar, hourly chart par Bearish Belt Hold candlestick pattern ka nazar aana—jo ke aam tor par sharp rally ke baad dekha jata hai—yeh ishara deta hai ke jabke bearish reversal abhi confirm nahi hui hai, ehtiyaat zaroori hai.

Technical indicators yeh raay deti hain ke uptrend ab bhi intact hai.

GBP/USD
Assalam Alaikum!
Kal ki badhat ke bad, sab se zyada imkani scenario yah hai keh pound/dollar ka joda apni tezi ka silsila jari rakhega. Fibonacci levels ke mutabiq, 1.3154 - 1.3173 ki muzahmati satahon ko agle hadaf ke taur par dekha ja sakta hai. Sath hi, rally se pahle 1.3000 round satah par wapsi ko mustarad nahin kiya ja sakta hai.
Lehaza, European session ke aaghaz aur market ki suratehal wazeh hone ka intezar karna qabile qadar hai.



4-ghante ke chart par, pound/dollar ke jode ne kal do aham satahon ka test kiya, yani 200% Fibonacci level (1.3071) aur 138.2% Fibonacci level (1.3090) aur fir ek reversal pin bar banaya. Yahi wajah hai keh mai tawaqqo karta hun keh Bartanwi pound 100% Fibonacci level (1.3009) ka test karega, lekin mujhe ummid nahin hai keh yah aaj is satah se niche jayega.
Jab tak qimat FE 138.2% level se niche hai, tab tak rally ka imkan nahin hai. Lehaza mai mumkena taur par 1.3090 ki muzahmati satah se thik ooper stop-loss order ke sath short positions kholunga. Halankeh, agar qimat is satah se ooper mustahkam ho jati hai to, 1.3150 aur us se ooper izafe ki ummid karte hue long positions kholna danishmandana faisla hoga.
Aaj ka din ghair mustahkam hone ka imkan hai kiyunkeh economic calendar aham khabron se bhara hua hai jiska market ke jazbat par bada asar pad sakta hai.

اگست 22 2024 کو برطانوی پاؤنڈ/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

کل، برطانوی پاؤنڈ نے 1.3080 کے ہدف کی سطح کو کامیابی کے ساتھ عبور کر لیا، جس نے آسیلیٹر کے ساتھ ممکنہ ڈائیورجن کو حل کیا۔ نتیجے کے طور پر، قیمت چینل کی بالائی حد کی طرف، 1.3160 یا اس سے زیادہ تک مسلسل ترقی کا امکان بڑھ گیا ہے۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر ابھی زیادہ گرم نہیں ہوا ہے اور قیمت میں اضافے میں رکاوٹ نہیں ہے۔



٤- گھنٹے کے چارٹ میں، انحراف بھی مضبوط نہیں ہوا؛ اس کے بجائے، لائن کی رفتار مثبت علاقے میں ایک وسیع ضمنی حرکت میں تبدیل ہوگئی۔ قیمت 1.3080 کی سطح سے اوپر مستحکم ہوگئی ہے۔



اپنے کنسولیڈیشن کی وجہ سے، مارلن آسیلیٹر غیر جانبدار، آرام دہ سطح پر ہے۔ موجودہ مضبوط نمو کو مدنظر رکھتے ہوئے، اس رجحان کو برقرار رکھنا ترجیحی منظر نامے کے طور پر ظاہر ہوتا ہے۔

تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

Comprehensive analysis ki buniyad par trading
GBP/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Kal, pound/dollar ki jodi 1.31181 ki muzahmati satah se ooper jane me nakam rahi. Aaj, Bartanwi pound shayad hi is nishan ko paar karne me kamyab hoga aur iske ooper mustahkam hoga. Bulan tarin satah jo jodi tak pahunch sakti hai woh maujudah muzahmati satah hai. Iske bad, qimat ke niche ki taraf lautne aur 1.30418 ki support satah ki taraf badhne ka imkan hai. Agar bulls jode ki girawat ko mahdud karne aur qimat ko wapas laane me nakam hain to, pound/dollar ki jodi 1.29927 ki support satah tak nuqsanat me tausie karegi, jahan ek rebound ki ummid me long positions kholna danishmandi hogi.

Jumay ke din doosray musalsal din ke liye apni rally ko barqarar rakha, aur Asian session mein 1.2870 level ke qareeb trading kar raha tha. Ye upward movement asasan tor par behtareen risk sentiment ki wajah se hui, jo ke strong US retail sales data ki wajah se aaya tha. Is data ne US me mandi aane ke khadshay ko kam kiya aur risk-sensitive karansi jese ke British pound ko boost diya. Is ke ilawa, British pound ko Thursday ke din release hone wale positive domestic economic data se bhi support mili. UK ka GDP doosray quarter mein 0.6% tak barh gaya, jo ke expectations ke mutabiq tha. Saal ka GDP growth rate 0.9% tak pohncha, jo ke pechlay quarter aur estimate dono se zyada tha. Market participants ab UK retail sales data ka intezar kar rahe hain jo ke Jumay ke din release hoga, aur umeed hai ke July mein 0.5% monthly increase hoga, jab ke pechlay mahine 1.2% ka decline tha. Saalana retail sales growth 1.4% tak barhney ki umeed hai, jo ke pechlay mahine ke 0.2% contraction se recovery ho gi. Is dauran, US Dollar kamzor hua kyun ke traders ne September mein Federal Reserve se 25 basis point interest rate cut ki pricing zyada ki hai. Magar, ek aur aggressive 50 basis point reduction ki possibility ab bhi hai, CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq 26% probability hai. Is ke bawajood, US Dollar ko Thursday ke din release hone wale strong US economic data se support mili, jo ke strong retail sales aur initial jobless claims mein kami par mabni tha Technically, GBP/USD pair August 8 ko 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) se ooper break karne ke baad se upward trend mein hai. Immediate resistance December 2023 ke high 1.2826 par hai. Agar prices barhte rahe to June high 1.2859 agla obstacle ban sakta hai. Agar ye level successful break ho gaya to ye March high 1.2892 ki taraf move karne ka rasta khol sakta hai. Neeche ki taraf, initial support 1.2710 level par hai, jo pehle resistance ke tor par act kar chuka hai lekin ab support provide kar sakta hai. Agar ye level break hota hai

Agar GBP/USD 1.3000 se neeche retreat karta hai aur is level ko resistance ke tor par use karna shuru karta hai, to 1.2950 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the latest downtrend) ko agle support ke tor par dekha ja sakta hai, phir 1.2900 ( Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, psychological level) tak girawat ho sakti hai. On the upside, 1.3045 (beginning point of the downtrend, July 17 high) agla resistance hai, phir 1.3100 (psychological level, static level) tak jaane ka imkaan hai. Pound Sterling (GBP) duniya ka sabse purana currency unit hai (886 AD) aur United Kingdom ka official currency hai. Yeh duniya mein foreign exchange (FX) ka chautha sabse zyada traded unit hai, jo ke 12% saare transactions ka hissa hai, jo 2022 ke data ke mutabiq $630 billion per day ke qareeb hota hai. Iske key trading pairs hain GBP/USD, jise 'Cable' bhi kaha jata hai, jo FX ka 11% hissa hai, GBP/JPY, jise traders 'Dragon' kehte hain (3%), aur EUR/GBP (2%) . Pound Sterling ki value ko influence karne wala sabse important factor Bank of England ka monetary policy hai. BoE apne faislay is baat par base karta hai ke kya unho ne apna primary goal “price stability” achieve kiya hai ya nahi – jo ek steady inflation rate ke qareeb 2% ke aas paas hota hai. Is goal ko achieve karne ke liye BoE ka primary tool interest rates ko adjust karna hota hai. Jab inflation bohot zyada hota hai, to BoE usse control mein rakhne ke liye interest rates ko badhata hai, jis se log aur businesses ke liye credit lena mehnga ho jata hai. Yeh aam tor par GBP ke liye positive hota hai, kyun ke higher interest rates UK ko global investors ke liye ek zyada attractive jagah bana dete hain apna paisa invest karne ke liye. Economic data releases jo economy ke health ko gauge karte hain, wo bhi Pound Sterling ki value ko impact kar sakte hain. Indicators like GDP, Manufacturing aur Services PMIs, aur employment sabhi GBP ki direction ko influence kar sakte hain. Ek strong economy Sterling ke liye acha hota hai. Na sirf yeh zyada foreign investment ko attract karta hai, magar yeh BoE ko interest rates badhane ke liye encourage kar sakta hai, jo directly GBP ko strengthen karega. Warna, agar economic data weak hota hai, to Pound Sterling ke girne ke chances zyada hote hain.

GBP/USD abhi bullish trend mein hai. Mahine ke shuruat mein ek significant decline ke baad, GBP/USD ne recovery ke signs dikhana shuru kiye hain aur ek strong aur consistent upward movement dekhi ja rahi hai. Yeh izafa kai supporting technical factors ki wajah se ho raha hai, jismein chart par ek strong support level bhi shamil hai jo ke blue zone se mark kiya gaya hai. Chart par yeh dekha ja sakta hai ke price ne previous resistance level 1.28718 ke ird-gird break kiya hai, jo ab ek naya support ban chuka hai. Is breakout ke baad, price apni upward movement ko continue karti hui ek nayi high, lagbhag 1.2980 tak pohanchi. Magar, is level par pohanchne ke baad, price ne ek slight downward correction experience kiya, jo ke strong bullish trend mein ek normal baat hai.

Blue zone, jo ke 50% aur 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels ke darmiyan ka area hai, lagta hai ke yeh ek key area hai jo dekhne layak hai. Yeh area ek dynamic support ke tor par kaam kar raha hai, jahan se price apni upward movement ko continue karne se pehle confirmation hasil karne ki koshish karegi. Agar price is zone ke upar rehne mein kamiyab hoti hai aur enough buying momentum hasil kar leti hai, to yeh bohot zyada mumkin hai ke GBP/USD apne bullish trend ko continue karegi aur next resistance level, jo ke 1.2980 ke upar hai, ko break karne ki koshish karegi.

Magar agar price is zone ke upar rehne mein nakam hoti hai aur instead is zone ko todti hai, to yeh mumkin hai ke yeh pair lower support level 1.2815, jo ke 100% Fibonacci level hai, tak wapas aa sakti hai. Yeh scenario is baat ki indication de sakta hai ke current bullish trend weak hona shuru ho gaya hai aur ek price reversal mumkin hai.

Positive sales data, jo ke strong consumer resilience ko indicate karti hai, ne DXY ko bolster

Pichlay trading week mein, Pound ne zabardast rally ki, aur apni pehli girawat ka zyada hissa wapas hasil kiya. Jab price ne pehlay din ke support 1.2667 par bounce kiya, to ye aglay level 1.2739 par hold karne mein kamiyab raha aur wahan se uptrend ko continue rakha. Is ke baad, quotes ko do martaba 1.2994 ke aas paas push kiya gaya. Is ka nateeja ye hua ke signal zone break hui aur mazeed declines ki umeedain khatam ho gayi. Price chart abhi bhi supertrend green zone mein hai, jo ke strong buying power ko zahir karta hai.
US Treasury yields Monday ko gir gayi, jis se dollar par asar pada. US Dollar ko rozgar data ki kharab surat-e-haal ke waja se pressure ka samna hai jo ke mahine ke pehle Friday ko release hui thi. US Dollar Index 101.96 points par aa gaya, jo pehle din ke close 102.46 points se kam tha. Index ne din mein 10,248 points ka high touch kiya tha aur 101.90 points ka low. Halankeh, baad mein United States ne kuch data release ki, jin mein retail sales figures bhi shamil hain

Filhal GBP/USD pair bullish trade kar raha hai aur weekly highs par hai. Major resistance area ne price ko hold nahi kiya aur wo break ho gayi, jo ke ye indicate karta hai ke preferred vector ko upar move karna zaroori hai. Growth continue karne ke liye, price ko 1.2914 ke level ke upar consolidate karna hoga, jo ke filhal main support zone ke border par hai. Agar price is area ko retest karke wapas uptrend mein aata hai, to aage ka target area 1.3082 aur 1.3170 ke beech hoga

/USD currency pair mein kuch notable movements dekhi gayi jo recent economic data se mutasir hui. 15 August ko GBP weak hua jab UK inflation data forecast se zyada aya, jisme Consumer Price Index 3.5% par bara, jabke 3.2% ka forecast tha. Yeh is baat ki nishandahi karta hai ke Bank of England future mein tightening kar sakta hai. Dusri taraf, US retail sales ke unexpected strong data, jo month-over-month 0.8% barhe, ne USD ko boost kiya. 16 August ko GBP ne pressure mehsoos kiya jab UK unemployment rate 5.2% par bara, jo UK labor market aur economic growth par concerns raise karta hai. Halanke US jobless claims mein slight uptick 220,000 tak dekhne ko mili, lekin USD relatively stable raha. In mixed economic signals ke wajah se USD ne GBP ke muqable mein strength hasil ki. Closing day par, GBP/USD ne bullish trend show kiya. Mene is pair par kal discuss kiya tha, noting ki price ne 1.2678 par support dhoondi aur double bottoms form karne ke baad rebound kiya. Pehle ke price action ko dekhte hue, sellers ne effectively market ko control kiya, bearish pattern create kiya, support tak pahunchne se pehle. Jab price support par aya, toh sellers ne apne positions close kiye, jisse buyers market mein significant force ke sath enter kar paye.Downside lagging map ko dekhte hue, Relative Strength Index (RSI) 40.00 ke upar extended period tak raha, momentum gather karta hua. Recently, yeh 50.00 aur phir 60.00 ke upar gaya, yeh indicate karta hai ke British pound US dollar ke muqable mein strong strength show kar raha hai. Kal yeh volatile pair daily support level 1.2800 par retrace hua aur phir tezi se upar reverse hua, level ko respect karte hue. GBP/USD ne lower time frames par lower low banaya, jisse retail traders ke stop-loss orders trigger hue. Bullish scenario ke base par, mein expect karta hoon ke GBP/USD upward move karta rahega, aur potentially bearish pattern target 1.3030 ya isse zyada tak pohanch sakta hai.Kal raat ke market close tak pound dobara strong hua aur 1.2940 par ya opening price se upar close hua, D1 time frame par candle ab MA 24 aur MA 200 line ke upar hai, aur stochastic indicator 5.3.3 bhi level 80 line ke upar hai, jo indicate karta hai ke buyers abhi bhi market mein dominate kar rahe hain. Yeh mumkin hai ke agle hafte GBP/USD currency pair bullish