usd/cad

US dollar Canadian dollar ke muqable mein Asian trade ke aghaz mein kamzor ho raha hai, aur is waqt 1.3640 ke qareeb hai. Yeh kamzori us waqt aayi jab disappointing US data samne aayi, jismein June ka ISM Services PMI umeedon se neeche gir kar 48.8 ho gaya, jo pehle May mein 53.8 tha. Is ne US dollar index (DXY) ko neeche 105.30 tak le aya, jabke US Treasury yields bhi har taraf se gir gayi hain bawajood US Independence Day holiday ke. Kamzor US data ne investors ko dollar bechne par majboor kar diya hai.

June 11 aur 12 ko hue Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting ki minutes ne ek data-dependent approach ko saamnay rakha hai. Kuch members interest rate hikes ko rokne par khula zahan rakhte hain taake inflation ka jaiza liya ja sake, jabke doosre members mazeed izafon ki zaroorat samajhte hain.

Dosri taraf, Canadian dollar ko rising oil prices se support mil raha hai, kyunke Canada, US ka ek bara oil supplier hai. Lekin, Canada ka khud ka manufacturing sector sluggish hai. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Canada June ke liye 49.3 par aya, jo umeedon ke mutabiq 50.2 se neeche hai. Yeh 14th consecutive month of contraction hai, jo 2010 se lambi tareen stretch hai.
Is kamzori ke bawajood, Canadian dollar ne US dollar ke muqable mein ground hasil kiya hai. Lekin, Australian dollar (AUD) aur British pound (GBP) ke muqable mein usne value khoi hai. USD/CAD pair currency traders ke liye ek key focus hai, jismein dollar is waqt 1.3630 ke qareeb retreat kar raha hai. Yeh us losses ke baad hai jo is haftay ke aaghaz mein usne 1.3760 ke highs ko touch karne ke baad sahe kiya.
Daily chart par, technical indicators ek potential downside trend ko suggest karte hain, jismein price 50-day moving average (MA) 1.3677 ke neeche gir rahi hai. Buyers shayad long-term 200-day MA 1.3588 par wapas aane ka intezar karein.

USD/CAD


US dollar Canadian dollar ke khilaf early Asian trade mein mushkil mein hai, aur taqriban 1.3640 ke aas paas hai. Yeh kamzori disappointing US data ke baad aayi hai, jahan June ka ISM Services PMI umeedon se kam, May ke 53.8 se gir ke 48.8 par aa gaya. Is ne US dollar index (DXY) par pressure dala hai aur yeh 105.30 tak neeche aa gaya hai, jabke US Treasury yields har jagah dip hui hain bawajood is ke ke yeh US Independence Day ki chhutti thi. Weak US data ne investors ko dollar bechne par majboor kar diya hai. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting ke June 11 aur 12 ke minutes se pata chalta hai ke policymakers data-dependent approach rakhte hain. Kuch members interest rate hikes ko pause karne ke haq mein hain taake inflation ko monitor kar sakein, jabke doosre mazeed increases ko zaroori samajhte hain. Dusri taraf, Canadian dollar ko rising oil prices se support mil raha hai, kyun ke Canada US ka major oil supplier hai. Lekin, Canada ka khud ka manufacturing sector sluggish hai. Canada ke liye S&P Global Manufacturing PMI June mein 49.3 par aayi, jo ke umeedon ke 50.2 se kam hai. Yeh contraction ka 14th consecutive month hai, jo ke 2010 se sabse lamba hai.





Canadian dollar ne US dollar ke khilaf ground gain kiya hai, lekin Australian dollar (AUD) aur British pound (GBP) ke khilaf value lose ki hai. USD/CAD pair currency traders ke liye ek key focus hai, jahan dollar filhal retreat karke 1.3630 ke paas hai. Yeh pehle hafte ke losses ke baad aaya hai jab highs 1.3760 se upar the. Daily chart par, technical indicators ek potential downside trend suggest karte hain, jahan price 50-day moving average (MA) 1.3677 se neeche gir rahi hai. Buyers shayad long-term 200-day MA 1.3588 par return dekhne ke liye talash karenge.

USD-CAD PAIR FORECAST
FOMC ki aam tor par koi nai baat nahi hoti. Ye to sirf buland martaba Federal Reserve afraad ki ek mulaqat hoti hai. Jab tak ke kisi taqreeban waqt muqarrar mein naye interest dar ke azharah na ho, tab tak kuch naya nahi hota. Agar kisi Fed governor ki taqreer bhi taqreeban waqt muqarrar na ho, to phir bhi koi nai baat nahi hoti. Magar market ne FOMC se pehle US ki arziyat mein kuch naya dekha, khas tor par jab United States ne apne ISM Services data jaari kiya, jo keh ke niche 50 point ke neechay gir gaya tha. Isi wajah se USDCAD dopahar se raat tak kafi bearish tha. Mujhe bhi mayoosgi hui, kyunki din ke doran jab USDCAD pair mein hedging position thi BUY aur SELL dono taraf, to maine SELL position se bahar nikalne ka faisla kiya. Natija yeh hua ke bearish price kafi gehra tha aur mujhe nuqsan uthana para. Alhamdulillah, BUY position sirf choti lot se thi, is liye jama hua floating nuqsan bhi munasib tha.

Aaj ke liye, mujhe lagta hai ke USDCAD pair ke price movement aaj bohat kamzor rahega kyunki report ke mutabiq US ke maliye bazaar band hain. Magar maine jumeraat ko economic calendar dekha jahan par Canadian aur United States se ahem maali data release hone wale hain. Jismein se Canadian economic data kee tasaweer kharab hone ki tawajjah hai. Isi liye mujhe lagta hai ke ek chhoti lot ke saath BUY position lena theek hai, ummeed karte hue ke price phir se jumeraat ko bullish ho jaye ga, haan keh Bollinger Band indicator H4 time frame mein price lower band ke ilaqe mein dikha raha hai.

USD/CAD ke daam 1.3612 tak pohanch gaye. Ye movement kaafi ahmiyat rakhti hai kyunki 1.3612 ka level ek significant horizontal support zone hai. Is zone ne pehle bhi kai baar support provide kiya hai, aur is dafa bhi daam ne yahan thodi der ke liye rukawat mehsoos ki. Is recent price action ka peeche ka reason alag-alag factors hain. Ek factor toh US aur Canada ke beech ke interest rate differentials hain. US Federal Reserve aur Bank of Canada ki monetary policies aur unke interest rate decisions ka bhi market pe seedha asar hota hai. Pichle kuch hafton mein, Federal Reserve ke hawkish stance ke bawajood, kuch economic indicators ne US dollar ki strength ko thoda kum kar diya. Doosri taraf, Bank of Canada bhi inflation ko control karne ke liye apni policies ko tight karne par zor de raha hai, jiski wajah se Canadian dollar ko support mil raha hai. Geopolitical factors ka bhi asar hota hai. Oil prices jo Canada ki economy ke liye kaafi ahmiyat rakhte hain, unmein bhi recent movements ne CAD ko influence kiya hai. Agar oil prices mein stability ya increase hoti hai, toh Canadian dollar ko aur strength mil sakti hai. Iske alawa, global risk sentiment aur trade dynamics bhi USD/CAD ke daam ko influence karte hain. Technically dekha jaye, 1.3612 ka level ek strong support zone hai. Agar yeh level break hota hai, toh agla support level 1.3500 ke aas-paas ho sakta hai. On the upside, resistance levels ko monitor karna bhi zaroori hai. Immediate resistance 1.3700 ke aas-paas dekha ja sakta hai, aur agar yeh level cross hota hai, toh 1.3800-1.3850 ka zone ek significant resistance point ban sakta hai. Indicators jaise Moving Averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), aur MACD bhi price action ki strength aur trend ke baare mein insight dete hain. Agar RSI oversold conditions dikhata hai, toh price mein reversal ka possibility badh jati hai. Fundamentally, kuch upcoming economic data releases aur central bank meetings ka bhi USD/CAD pair pe significant impact ho sakta hai. Economic indicators jaise GDP growth rate, employment data, inflation reports, aur retail sales figures dono deshon ke liye closely monitor kiya jate hain. Overall, USD/CAD ke daam 1.3612 ke horizontal support zone pe rukawat mehsoos karte hue dikh rahe hain. Yahan se market participants ke actions, upcoming economic events, aur global market dynamics pe depend karega ki price is support ko hold kar pata hai ya nahi. Agar yeh level sustain hota hai, toh ek potential bounce back ki ummeed ki ja sakti hai. Lekin agar yeh break hota hai, toh price further downside explore kar sakta.
USD/CAD ko bohat ehtiyat ke saath trade karna mashhoor hai, jab tak ke price 1.3575 CAD ke neeche acchi tarah se na rahay, long positions (khareedne ke waqt) ko pasand kiya ja sakta hai. Aglay bullish maqsad ke liye kharidar 1.3598 CAD par set kiya gaya hai.
Agar yeh resistance bullish break ho jaye, to bullish momentum ko boost mil sakta hai. Kharidar phir 1.3614 CAD par resistance ko target kar sakte hain. Agar koi crossing hoti hai, to agla maqsad 1.3637 CAD par mojood resistance ho sakta hai. PS: Agar 1.3575 CAD par mojood support mein bearish break hota hai, to hum aap se naye automated technical analysis tayyar karne ki salah dete hain. Haqeeqat mein, shara'it badal chuki hongi. Price chhotay term mein zahiran zyada clearly bearish hogi aur bullish basic trend bhi kamzor ho sakta hai.

USD/CAD exchange rate ke bearish trend mein contribute kar sakta hai woh interest rate differential hai jo dono mulkon ke darmiyan hai. Agar Bank of Canada ka interest rate Federal Reserve se zyada hai, ya agar yeh perceive hota hai ke near future mein rate badh sakti hai, toh yeh investors ko attract kar sakta hai jo higher returns chahtay hain. Canada mein higher interest rates Canadian dollar ko zyada attractive bana deti hain, kyun ke investors ko CAD mein denominated investments par behtar returns milte hain.
Geopolitical events aur trade relations jo United States aur Canada ke darmiyan hain, woh bhi exchange rate ko impact kar sakti hain. Misal ke tor par, agar trade policies ya agreements mein koi uncertainties ya tensions hain, toh yeh investor sentiment ko affect kar sakta hai. Trade negotiations mein positive developments ya Canada mein stable political conditions Canadian dollar ko US dollar ke muqable mein safer bet bana sakti hain, is tarah exchange rate neeche aa sakta hai.
Market sentiment bhi currency movements mein crucial role play karta hai. Agar traders aur investors perceive karte hain ke US dollar mazid kamzor hoga, toh woh USD sell kar ke doosri currencies, including CAD, ko buy karna shuru kar denge. Market perception kayi factors se influenced ho sakti hai, including political stability, fiscal policies, aur overall economic outlook.
Technical analysis bhi bearish trend ko samajhne mein madad kar sakti hai. Agar key support levels break ho chuki hain aur technical indicators further downside potential ko signal kar rahe hain, toh traders USD/CAD pair ko sell karte rahenge. Moving averages, relative strength index (RSI), aur doosre technical tools current trend aur potential future movements par insights de sakte hain.
In conclusion, current bearish trend in USD/CAD exchange rate jo ke 1.3740 par trade kar rahi hai, US dollar ki value ke decline ko dikhati hai Canadian dollar ke muqable mein. Yeh trend market sentiment ko favor karta hai
USD/CAD pair bechne ki dabao ka samna kar raha hai aur yeh ek range ke andar trade ho raha hai jo short-term trading opportunities offer karti hai. Traders ko 1.3700 level par bechne ka consider kar sakte hain, jahan se 1.3670 tak target rakh sakte hain, 1.3725 resistance level ko risk management ke liye dekhna zaroori hai. 1.3660 support level ahem hai; agar issey neeche break ho jaye toh yeh ek zyada taizi se downtrend ka signal ho sakta hai, jabki agar iske upar ruke toh consolidation ya reversal ka ishara ho sakta hai.
In levels aur unke aas paas ki price action ko monitor karna trading decisions mein sahi faisle lene ke liye zaroori hai. Market sentiment ko samajhna aur changes ke liye tayar rehna traders ko USD/CAD pair ke movement mein madadgaar sabit ho sakta hai
USDCAD exchange rate mein significant upward movement ke liye ek catalyst ban sakta hai agar yeh market expectations ko exceed kare ya positive economic growth ko signal kare. Agar U.S. news release USDCAD pair mein substantial upward surge ka sabab banta hai, to traders closely watch karenge ke price recently formed peak ke upar consolidate karti hai ya nahi. Is level ke upar consolidation ek potential reversal ko indicate kar sakti hai bearish trend mein, aur traders accordingly apni positions ko adjust kar sakte hain based on new market dynamics.
Iske bar'aks, agar aaj ka U.S. news significant upward surge generate nahi kar pati ya price formed peak ke upar consolidate nahi karti, to market sentiment bearish hi reh sakti hai.Click image for larger version

Thursday ke New York session mein, yeh pair 1.3700 ke critical resistance level ke qareeb pohanch gaya. Yeh movement US Dollar ki dobara taqat hasil karne ke doraan aayi hai, jab ke US Dollar Index (DXY) 105.15 tak pohanch gaya hai aur Federal Reserve ke potential rate cuts ke aas paas uncertainty bani hui hai.

USD/CAD ke bunyadi ahamiyat:

Canadian Dollar ki taqat, jo kay aam tor par Loonie ke naam se mashhoor hai, Bank of Canada (BoC) ke overnight rate mein 25 basis points ki kami ki 4.75% tak jaane ki umeedon se mutasir hai. April mein Canada mein thandaar inflation rate ke baad yeh faisla aaya hai. CIBC Capital Markets ke mohaqqiqeen ki tawaanayi hai ke BoC Federal Reserve ke mukhtalif amal se pehle mazeed baar baar kar sakta hai. BoC aur Fed ke darmiyan maali siyasat mein yeh ikhtilaaf Canadian Dollar par neechay ki taraf dabaav daal sakta hai, jis se USD/CAD pair ko faida ho sakta hai.

BoC Governor Tiff Macklem ne aane wale maali data par mohtat ravi ke intezaar par rate cut ki mumkinat ki isharaat di hain, jis se Canadian monetary policy ke tawaanayi ko samjha ja sakta hai maazi ke maali haalaat ke darmiyan.

Daily Time Frame Technical Nazar:

Haal hi mein trading sessions mein, USD/CAD mein numaya dabaav se nichlay hawalay se 0.77% izafa hua hai jo 1.3610 ke neechay tha. Lekin, yeh pair mukhtalif trading conditions ki wajah se mutasir hai, jo 1.3744 ke resistance level ke oopar mustawar urooj ko rokne mein rukawat paida karte hain.

Technically, daily candlestick charts mein 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) se 1.3674 par aaram ka nazar aata hai. Is ke bawajood, USD/CAD ke liye lambi mudat mein bullish trends mehsoos nahi ho rahe hain, khaas tor par saalana bulandiyon se 1.3851 ke qareeb girne ke baad.

In Thursday’s New York session, the pair approached the critical resistance level of 1.3700. This movement comes as the US Dollar sees a resurgence, supported by a rise in the US Dollar Index (DXY) to 105.15 amidst uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve’s potential rate cuts.

Fundamentals of the USD/CAD:

The strength of the Canadian Dollar, often referred to as the Loonie, has been influenced by expectations of a 25 basis points cut in the Bank of Canada's (BoC) overnight rate to 4.75% scheduled. This decision follows a cooling inflation rate in Canada observed in April. Economists at CIBC Capital Markets speculate that the BoC might lower rates multiple times before the Fed initiates similar measures. This divergence in monetary policy between the BoC and the Fed could exert downward pressure on the Canadian Dollar, thereby favoring the USD/CAD pair.

BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has hinted at the possibility of a rate cut, contingent upon forthcoming economic data, underscoring the cautious approach of Canadian monetary policy amidst evolving economic conditions.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

In recent trading sessions, USD/CAD has shown significant downward movement, marking a 0.77% increase from its recent low below 1.3610. However, the pair has been affected by volatile trading conditions, leading to fluctuations that hinder sustained upward momentum beyond the resistance level at 1.3744.



Technically, daily candlestick charts indicate a rebound from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3674. Despite this, long-term bullish trends for USD/CAD remain subdued, particularly in light of its decline from yearly highs near 1.3851

Thursday ke Asian session mein, yeh pair 1.3600 key support level ke upar stabilize ho gaya. DXY ki strength ke saath, Loonie apna weekly high 1.3754 ke aas paas dobara hasil karne ki koshish kar raha hai. USD mein yeh rise traders ke expectations kam hone ki wajah se hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) September ki meeting mein interest rates cut nahi karega.

Investor sentiment abhi bhi cautious hai, zyadatar is wajah se ke Fed rate cuts ko saal ke aakhri quarter tak delay kar sakta hai. Is uncertainty ne Tokyo session ke dauran S&P 500 futures mein significant losses lead kiye hain, jo investors ke diminished risk appetite ko reflect karta hai.

Market focus ab upcoming Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data pe hai, jo ke Friday ko release hone wala hai. Analysts yeh anticipate kar rahe hain ke month-on-month basis pe, Canadian economy April mein stagnant rahi after a modest 0.2% growth in February. Pehle quarter ke liye, forecasts suggest karte hain ke annualized expansion 2.2% rahi. Weak GDP figures Bank of Canada (BoC) ke interest rate cuts initiate karne ki expectations ko barha sakte hain agle meeting se.

Loonie pair ne recently familiar support zone near 1.3600 ko retrace kiya, lekin persistent demand for US Dollar ne pair ko Tuesday ke early peak near 1.3753 ke within reach rakha hai. Early May se pair consolidate kar raha hai, lekin declining highs CAD strength mein potential weakening suggest karte hain.

Technically, significant support 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.3681 pe hai, jabke USD/CAD abhi congestion zone near 50-day EMA at 1.3661 mein trade kar raha hai. Koi bhi upward movement yearly peak 1.3851, jo ke 2024 ke pehle set hua tha, ke near resistance face karegi.

FOMC ke important din par koi debate nahi hui. Ye Federal Reserve ki ek hi meeting thi. Jab tak kisi naye interest ka koi debate fixed time pe nahi hota, kuch naya nahi hoga. Agar Fed Governor ki speech scheduled nahi hoti debate ke waqt, toh bhi koi debate nahi hogi. Lekin market ne FOMC se pehle US income mein bohot kam change dekha, especially jab United States ne apna ISM services data release kiya, jo 50 points pe aayi. Iske nazar mein, USDCAD dopahar se raat tak suffer kar raha tha. Main bhi disappointed tha, kyunki jab din ke dauran USDCAD ne hedging position ko purchase kiya aur sale se door gaya, maine Sell position se bahar nikalne ka faisla kiya. Natija yeh hua ke recession ki value deepened hui aur mujhe loss suffer karna pada. Shukr hai ke BUY position sirf kuch lots ke liye thi, toh floating loss bhi valid raha.

Aaj ke liye, mujhe lagta hai ke USDCAD couple ka price movement bohot weak rahega, kyunki report kehti hai ke US financial markets closed hain. Lekin maine kal economic calendar dekha, jahan Canada aur United States se important economic data release hone wala hai. Haqiqat mein, Canada's economic data deteriorate hone ki umeed hai. Toh mujhe lagta hai ke better hai ke ek choti lot ke saath BUY position li jaye, umeed hai ke Thursday ko price dobara change hoga, jahan Bowling Band Indicator price ko lower band area in H4 pe show kar raha hai.

USD/CAD

Thursday ke Asian session mein, pair ne key support level 1.3600 ke upar stabilize kar liya. DXY strength gain kar raha hai, aur Loonie apne weekly high ko reclaim karne ka aim kar raha hai jo ke kareeb 1.3754 hai. Yeh rise USD mein traders ke reduced expectations ki wajah se hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) September meeting mein interest rates cut nahi karega.

Market Uncertainty aur GDP Focus:

Investor sentiment abhi bhi cautious hai, aksar is wajah se ke concerns hain ke Fed apne rate cuts ko last quarter of the year tak postpone kar sakta hai. Is uncertainty ki wajah se S&P 500 futures Tokyo session ke doran significant losses face kar rahi hain, jo ke investors mein risk appetite ki kami ko reflect karta hai.

Market focus ab upcoming Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data par hai, jo ke Friday ko release hone wali hai. Analysts anticipate karte hain ke month-on-month basis par Canadian economy April mein stagnant rahi, jab ke February mein modest 0.2% growth thi. Pehle quarter ke liye forecasts suggest karte hain ke 2.2% annualized expansion ho sakta hai. Weak GDP figures se expectations barh sakti hain ke Bank of Canada (BoC) apne agle meeting se interest rate cuts initiate karega.

Technical Analysis aur Trading Patterns:

Loonie pair ne recently familiar support zone 1.3600 ke qareeb retrace kiya, lekin persistent demand for the US Dollar ne pair ko Tuesday ke early peak ke qareeb 1.3753 rakha. Early May se, pair consolidate kar raha hai, halan ke declining highs suggest karte hain ke CAD strength mein potential weakening hai.




Technically, significant support 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke qareeb 1.3681 par hai, jab ke USD/CAD currently congestion zone mein trade kar raha hai 50-day EMA ke qareeb 1.3661. Koi bhi upward movement resistance encounter karega yearly peak 1.3851 ke qareeb jo ke pehle 2024 mein set hui thi.

USD/CAD Market Analysis
Assalam-o-Alaikum sab ko!

Haal hi mein US Non-Farm Employment Rate 150K tak gir gaya aur Unemployment Rate 238K tak barh gaya, jis se kal US dollar kamzor ho gaya. Is ke ilawa, ISM aur Final Service aur Manufacturing indices bhi qubool nahi kiye gaye. Is wajah se USD/CAD market ne kal 1.3628 zone ko paar kar liya. Is halat mein hume yeh dekhna chahiye ke kya bari speculators jaise hedge funds predominantly USD/CAD par long ya short positions mein hain.

Agar in players ne short positions mein mazeed izafa kiya hai to yeh current bearish sentiment ko mazbooti deta hai, jabke long positions ki taraf shift bearish sentiment mein ummeed ka izhar kar sakti hai. Abhi to USD/CAD ke buyers apni qeemat khone ke muqam par hain, jis se aaj hum sell positions open karne ka mauqa dekh sakte hain.

Sentiment analysis ko apni trading strategy mein shamil kar ke positions ko bazar ke zyadaire raye ke saath align karna madad deta hai, jis se successful trades ke imkanat barh jate hain. Maslan, agar technical aur fundamental analysis dono USD/CAD ke liye bearish outlook ko point out kar rahe hain aur sentiment analysis bazar ke participants mein strong bearish sentiment ko confirm karta hai, to yeh sell-side position rakhne ke liye strong justification hai.

Yaad rahe ke volatile market conditions mein risk management ka behtareen istemal zaroori hai. Trailing stops aur profit targets to ahem tools hain, lekin trades ko multiple currency pairs ya asset classes (jaise ke commodities, stocks, ya indices) mein taqseem karna bhi risk ko spread karne mein madad deta hai. Taqseem e rae se kisi ek asset ke adverse movements ka asar kam hota hai, aur is se aap ka portfolio zyada balance milta hai.

Chalte hain dekhte hain aane wale ghanton mein market mein kya hota hai.

Aap sab ko trading day mein kamyabiyan milein!

USD/CAD

Kal, USD/CAD par bechne walon ne impulsively qeemat ko south ki taraf dhakel diya aur natija ye hua ke daily range closing ke baad ek aur bearish candle form hui, jisne apni southern shadow ke sath top se bottom tak support level ko test kiya, jo mere markings ke mutabiq 1.36171 par hai. Filhal, mujhe is instrument par apne liye kuch interesting nazar nahi aa raha aur mein aam tor par growth resume karne par focus hoon. Isi ke sath, mein designated support level 1.36171 aur support level 1.35882 ko nazar mein rakhne ka plan bana raha hoon. Jaisa ke maine bar bar kaha hai, in support levels ke qareeb do scenarios ho sakte hain.

Priority scenario reversal candle ya reversal candle combination banne se hai aur growth resume hone se, jo ke ek global sideways trend ki formation ke framework mein hai. Agar ye plan kaam kar gaya, to mein price ko forming sideways movement ki upper border tak jaane ka intezar karoonga. Is case mein, mein resistance level 1.37553 ya resistance level 1.37917 ko apni sights mein rakhne ka plan bana raha hoon. Main in resistance levels ke qareeb trading setup ki formation ka intezar karoonga, jo trading ke aage ke direction ko determine karne mein madad karegi. Beshak, mein ye maan leta hoon ke price ko aage north ki taraf push kiya ja sakta hai resistance level 1.38461 tak, magar yahan humein situation dekhni hogi aur sab kuch depend karega ke news background price movement ke dauran kya deta hai aur qeemat designated northern targets par kaise react karti hai.

Alternative option price movement ke liye next test par support level 1.36171 ya support level 1.35882 ke qareeb price fixing ke sath in levels ke neeche aur further southern movement hogi. Agar ye plan kaam karta hai, to mein price ko support level 1.35470 tak move hone ka intezar karoonga. Is support level ke qareeb, mein bullish signals ki formation ka intezar karoonga, upward movement ke resumption ki umeed mein.

Beshak, southern targets ke liye zyada door tak kaam karne ke options hain, magar filhal main unko consider nahi kar raha kyunke mujhe unki quick implementation ke prospects nazar nahi aate. Agar hum briefly baat karein, to aaj mujhe locally apne liye kuch interesting nazar nahi aa raha. General tor par, mein forming sideways trend ke framework mein growth resume karne par focused hoon, is se mutabiq mein nearest support levels se bullish signals dhoondh raha hoon.

USD-CAD PAIR FORECAST
FOMC aam taur par koi nayi baat nahi laata. Kyunki yeh sirf Federal Reserve ke uchchatam adhikariyon ki baithak hoti hai. Jab tak naye interest dar ke naye elaan ki koi ghoshna na ho, tab tak kuch naya nahi hota. Agar Federal Reserve governor ka bayan ka koi taqseem nahi hai, to phir bhi koi naya masla nahi hota. Magar market ne FOMC se pehle US ki arthvyavastha mein kuch naya dekha, jaise ki jab United States ne apna ISM Services data jari kiya, jo ki bahut tezi se 50 point se kam ho gaya tha. Isi wajah se USDCAD shaam se raat tak kaafi bearish tha. Mujhe bhi nirasha hui, kyunki din mein jab USDCAD jodi mein hedging position thi jisme BUY aur SELL positions ek saath thi, maine SELL position se bahar nikalne ka faisla kiya. Is natije mein, jab bearish daam kaafi neeche gaya tha, mujhe nuksan uthana pada. Bhagwan ka shukr hai, BUY position mein sirf chota sa lot istemaal kiya gaya tha, isliye jama hua floating nuksan bhi mamoolan thoda tha.

Aaj ke liye, mujhe lagta hai ki USDCAD jodi ki keemat ki gati dheemi hogi kyunki samachar ke mutabiq US kee arthik market band hai. Magar maine Jumeraat ko Canada aur United States se aham arthik data riwayat hone ka economic calendar dekha. Canada ke arthik data ke anuman bure hone ke baare mein, isliye mujhe lagta hai ki ek BUY position lena koi galat faisla nahi hoga, aaj ke din chota lot laga kar, umeed hai ki Jumeraat ko phir se keemat buland ho jayegi, haan ki Bollinger Band indicator H4 time frame mein dikhata hai ki keemat lower band kshetra mein hai.

USDCAD pair ka trend bullish se bearish ho gaya hai. EMA 50 ne SMA 200 ko downward cross kar liya hai, jis se death cross signal mila hai. Is signal ke baad, price movement ka rujhan girne ka hai, halaan ke kuch upward correction bhi ho sakti hai. Agar hum current price movement pe dhyan dein, to abhi price support level 1.3606 ke qareeb pohanch gaya hai. Pehle, price jo upar ja raha tha, woh resistance level 1.3776 ke qareeb pohanch gaya tha. Lekin, upward rally 1.3754 pe ruk gaya due to pessimistic US economic data report aur dovish statement of the Fed chairman.

MACD indicator ka histogram volume downtrend momentum ko show kar raha hai, jo level 0 se neeche yaani negative area mein hai. Yeh likely hai ke USDCAD pair ka price decline rally support level 1.3606 tak continue karega. RSI indicator parameter (14) bhi level 50 se neeche hai aur oversold zone level 30 - 20 mein enter karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Yeh sab bearish trend ko support karte hain.

Trading plan ke liye, death cross signal ko dekhte hue, aap SELL moment ka wait kar sakte hain jo ke bearish trend direction ke mutabiq ho. Entry position placement tab ki jaye jab price upward correction ke baad minor SBR area 1.3670 ke qareeb rejection experience kare. MACD indicator ka histogram jo negative area mein hai aur RSI indicator parameter (14) jo level 50 se neeche hai, yeh sab confirmation dete hain.

Take profit placement ke liye target support level 1.3606 hai aur stop loss ko entry open position se 40 - 50 pips ke faasle par rakha ja sakta hai.

Yeh trading plan ke mutabiq, aap bearish trend ke rujhan ko follow karke informed trading decisions le sakte hain. Dhyan rakhein ke indicators aur support/resistance levels ko observe karke hi position open karein, taake potential price movements ka faida uthaya ja sake aur risk ko manage kiya ja sake.

ka imkaan pesh karti hai. Hum ne aik ahem support ko tor diya jahan correction ka minimum mumkin tha. Hourly correction khatam hui, jaise pehle ishara diya gaya tha. Uske baad qeemat 200-day moving average tak wapas ayi, jise test kiya gaya aur phir se gir gayi. Bears ko daily chart par MA200 ko torna zaroori hai taake girawat ko mazid mazboot karein aur stagnation se niklein. Mera andaza hai ke medium-term mein 61.7% tak girawat hogi, lekin filhal mere paas short-term movements ke liye koi specific ideas nahi hain. Long-term trend upward hai bawajood ek correction ke jo ke 1.3659 tak pohanch sakti hai, jo ke 1.3624-1.3594 tak ja sakti hai. Iske baad, long positions relevant hongi jo ke 1.3714 aur 1.3774 (June high) ko target karein gi. Agar 1.3624-1.3594 support area mumkin hai, trend downward ho jaega jiska target 1.3509 hai. Medium-term trend downward hai: mahine ke darmiyan, qeemat ne 1.3795-1.3776 ka critical trend resistance area test kiya aur May low of 1.3599 ki taraf girna shuru kar diya. Isay paar karna girawat ko zone 2 (1.3472-1.3454) tak barhane ko continue karega. Agar 1.3599 support level hold karta hai, toh qeemat 1.3988-1.3968 area mein barh sakti hai. Daily target 61.7% of the Fibonacci retracement hai. Aik internal pattern zyada girawat ka imkaan pesh karta hai. Critical support ke tor par, jahan correction ka minimum mumkin tha. Qeemat 200-day moving average tak wapas ayi, jise test kiya gaya aur phir se gir gayi. Bears ko daily chart par MA200 ko torna zaroori hai taake girawat ko mazid mazboot karein. Long-term trend upward hai, target 1.3714 aur 1.3774 ke baad aik correction ke 1.3659 tak, jo ke 1.3624-1.3594 tak ja sakti hai.
USD/CAD ke haal hi ke karkardagi ne iske maqam ko wase mawashi rujhanat aur geo-political developments ke barometer ke tor par zyada ujaagar kiya hai jo ke dono US aur Canadian maishat ko asarandaz karte hain. Exchange rate mein utar chadhao bazar ke jazbat mein lagataar tabdilion ko reflect karta hai, jo ke monetary policy decisions, economic data releases, aur geopolitical tensions jaise factors se drive hote hain.
Tajir in fluctuations ko ehtiyat aur moqay dhoondhne wale rawaiye ke saath navigate kar rahe hain, technical analysis aur market indicators ko apne faisle guide karne ke liye istemal karte hain. USD/CAD ki resistance levels ko torhne aur upar ki bulandiyon tak pohanchne mein nakaami ne trading strategies ko aik mushkilat ka pehlu de diya hai, jo ke tajiron ko apni positions aur risk management approaches ka jaiza lene par majboor kar rahi hai.
Aindah dekhte hue, bazar ke hissa daar aanewali economic events aur policy announcements ka intizar kar rahe hain jo ke USD/CAD joṛe ke mustaqbil ke rukh par mazeed wazahat faraham kar saken. Economic data, central bank policies, aur global market dynamics ke darmiyan ka taawun joṛe ki harkaton ko aane wale hafton mein shakal dega, jo ke tajiron aur tajziya kaaron ke liye challenges aur moqay dono faraham karega.
Akhir mein, USD/CAD karansi joṛe ke haal hi ke rawaiye ne mali bazaron mein aik markazi nuqta banaya hai, jo ke upar ke rujhanat aur nai bulandiyon tak pohanchne mein rukawat se khush hai. Yeh nukta-nazri manzar bazar ke tajziya aur strategic planning ko ghehra banane par majboor kar raha hai, jo ke joṛe ke maqam ko wase mawashi manzar nama mein numayan karta hai

USD-CAD Pair Analysis

Maine H4 timeframe chart ke zariye market movement ko samajhne ki koshish ki, jahan September ke aaghaz se candlestick position bullish se bearish trend mein tabdeel hoti nazar aa rahi hai. Candlesticks ne Simple Moving Average indicator ke neeche gir kar move kiya hai. Kabhi kabhi ek upward correction movement hoti hai jo candlestick ko Simple Moving Average 150 indicator ke qareeb le aati hai jo ke red hai. Chart mein dekha ja sakta hai ke kal ka decline pichle kuch hafton ke lowest level tak pohonch gaya hai.

MACD indicator pe dotted yellow line phir se zero level ke neeche gir gayi hai aur histogram bar ki shakal abhi tak lambi nahi hui hai, jabke RSI indicator (14) 50 level ke neeche move kar raha hai jo is baat ki indication hai ke market trend abhi bhi bearish zone mein valid hai. Mere khayal mein yeh condition dikhati hai ke seller army ka dominance abhi bhi maujood hai aur wo kisi further fundamental movement ka intezar kar rahe hain jo significant movement effect de sake. Chart ko H4 timeframe se dekhne ke baad yeh nazar aata hai ke market conditions mein abhi bhi bearish trend ko continue karne ka potential hai.

**Nateejah:**

USDCAD currency pair ke technical data ko analyze karne ke baad aur kai indicators ko use karne ke baad, yeh dekha ja sakta hai ke takreeban tamam indicators candlesticks ko bearish trend ke direction mein move karte hue dikhate hain. Aane wale market conditions ke liye, meri estimation ke mutabiq, agar price phir se girti hai aur 1.3610 level tak pohonchti hai to further downward movement dekhi ja sakti hai. Agar candlestick analysis ke mutabiq move karti hai, to ideal area jahan bearish target place karna chahiye wo 1.3560 price level ke aas paas hai jo seller troops ka target level hai. Stoploss level ko transaction level se takreeban 35 pips door rakhne ka soch raha hoon.