یورپی ڈالر بمقابلہ امریکی ڈالر

EUR/USD 1-ghante ke chart par bohot hi technical aur structured price movement nazar aata hai, jo supply aur demand zones, liquidity pools, aur fair value gaps (FVG) ke darmiyan complex interplay dikhata hai. Is waqt price 1.10782 ke aas-paas hai, aur yeh ek retracement mein hai jo 1.11500 ke ilaqe se significant rejection ke baad aayi, jo ek mazboot supply zone ke tor par kaam kar raha tha. Price action yeh darshata hai ke market participants, jo ke mumkin hai institutional traders ya market makers hon, actively liquidity hunt kar rahe the 1.11500 level ke upar, uske baad price ko neeche ki taraf push kiya, jo ke lagta hai ke ek strategic move tha long positions ko clear karne aur market mein balance restore karne ke liye.
1.11500 ke aas-paas ka ilaqa marked liquidity grab se milta hai, jo ye dikhata hai ke bade players ka yeh irada tha ke stop orders ko trigger karen aur distribution liquidity (DLiq) zone ke upar bade trades execute karen. Jab price is zone ke nazdeek pahuncha, to market mein buying pressure ka izafa hua, jab retail traders aur dusre market participants ne potential breakout ka faida uthana chaha. Lekin, yeh high liquidity area sellers ke liye ek acha mauka bana, kyunke stop-loss aur buy orders ki liquidity unke liye market ko neeche push karne ka attractive target bana.

Is rejection se pehle, market 1.11000 aur 1.10500 ke darmiyan ek tight range mein consolidate kar raha tha. Is doran, price demand aur supply zones ke darmiyan bounce ho rahi thi, jo strong directional bias ki kami ko darshata hai. Consolidation phase ne market ko liquidity ikattha karne ka mauka diya, khaaskar lower bound par 1.10500 par, jahan buyers shayad positions ikattha kar rahe the, aur upper bound par 1.11000 par, jahan sellers supply side ko defend kar rahe the. Is range mein price movement supply aur demand forces ke darmiyan equilibrium ko highlight karta hai, jo sirf achanak 1.11500 region tak spike se disrupt hua.

Is setup mein ek critical point fair value gap (FVG) ka formation hai jo 1.11250 ke aas-paas hai. Fair value gaps aksar traders dwara istemal kiye jate hain taake wo market mein inefficiency ke areas ko identify kar saken jahan price gap ko "fill" karne ke liye wapas aa sakti hai, jo rebalancing mechanism ke tor par kaam karta hai. 1.11250 ka gap jaldi fill ho gaya jab market ne apne pehle ke range se breakout karne ki koshish ki, jo yeh darshata hai ke market ab bhi balanced range mein kaam kar raha tha aur yeh breakout short term mein sustainable nahi tha. FVG ka fill hona yeh bhi suggest karta hai ke market participants cautious the, kyunke ek true breakout ke liye demand ya supply se stronger impulse

EUR/USD ke price behavior ka tajziya khula hai. EUR/USD pair ke liye cheezein seedhi lag rahi hain. Mujhe lagta hai ke bearish trend resistance ke nazdeek dheere ho raha hai, aur iske aas paas ek tang range ban rahi hai, jo neeche ki taraf ek move ko trigger kar sakti hai. Magar yeh ek aam trading week nahi hai, is liye kuch bhi ho sakta hai. Dusri taraf, yeh resistance ummeed se zyada mazboot sabit ho sakta hai, aur jab tak koi khaas fundamentals nahi hain jo mazeed growth ko support karein, mujhe lagta hai ke yeh pair neeche ki taraf mukarna zyada mumkin hai, jo ek classic move jaisa lag raha hai. Lekin, gehra bearish continuation utni asaani se nahi ho sakta jaisa ummeed hai. Main 1.0956 par flat resistance aur 1.0901 ke aas paas support par focus kar raha hoon, aur ek potential minimum update ki tawaqqo kar raha hoon. Yeh scenario market khulne par ho sakta hai, lekin baad mein humein upar ki taraf ek corrective reversal dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Kul milakar, mujhe lagta hai ke bearish trend zyada waqt tak jari rahega.

Aakhri kuch trading din bohot ahem rahe hain, kyunke EUR/USD pair ne 1.0926 par critical support tod diya. Halankeh technical correction ka mauqa maujood tha, lekin pair neeche ki taraf sliding karta raha aur flat raha, jo buyers aur European currency ki kamzori ko dikhata hai. Phir bhi, upar ki taraf correction ka imkaan ab bhi kaafi zyada hai, is liye in waqt bechna risky hai. Kharidne par ghoor karna bhi bohot jaldi hai, kyunke koi wazeh technical signals nahi hain jo correction ki shuruaat ko darshate hain.

Maine tajurbe se seekha hai ke behtar yeh hai ke thoda intezar karein aur market ko dekhein, bajaye is ke ke jab market uncertain ho to trades mein kood jaayein, kyunke direction ka galat andaza lagana aasaan hota hai aur nuksan uthana pad sakta hai. Hum Monday ko 1.0926 aur 1.0957 ke darmiyan Murray levels ke range se price ka breakout dekhne ka intezar kar rahe hain. Jaise pehle zikr kiya gaya, agar 1.0926 support ke neeche downward breakout hota hai, to agla target 1.0896 tak girne ka hoga.

Technical analysis of the EURUSD pair

Pichle do trading dinon mein, price ka rukh sideways raha aur yeh peechle hafton ke muqablay mein aik narrow range mein tha. Is liye, aaj trading price channels mein sideways rukh ke sath shuru hui, aur price aaj ki shuruat se dheere dheere sideways taraf chalti rahi.

Yeh aik aisi price movement hai jo agle rukh ka tayun nahi karti, isliye sideways movement ko rectangle pattern ki tarah samjha ja sakta hai, jahan sab se uncha aur sab se neecha price tay kiya jata hai. Agar price uchi line ko tor deti hai aur usay retest karti hai, toh isay upward trend mana jata hai. Aur agar price neeche wali line ko tor deti hai aur usay retest karti hai, toh isay downward trend mana jata hai.

Economic pehlu se, euro $1.09 ke ird gird trade kar raha hai, jo ke do maheenon mein sab se kamzor level hai. Yeh US dollar ki general taqat ki wajah se hai, jabke umeed hai ke US Federal Reserve borrowing costs ko pehle se kam tez dar se kam karega. Europe mein, European Central Bank se umeed hai ke yeh is hafte deposit rate ko 25 basis points se kam karega, jo ke September aur June mein bhi aise hi kiya gaya tha.

Kul mila kar… Traders ab yeh bet kar rahe hain ke European Central Bank har meeting mein quarter point se rate kam karega jab tak March tak. Eurozone ka annual inflation rate September 2024 mein 1.8% tak gir gaya, jo ke April 2021 ke baad ka sab se kam hai.

Stock trading platforms ke mutabiq… Eurozone ke stocks ne haftay ko green mein khatam kiya. Trading platforms ke mutabiq, European stocks ne Jumma ko upar khatam kiya, jo ke unke North American counterparts ki taraf se positive shuruat se faida uthate hue hua, jabke investors ne kuch economic data ka jaiza liya. France ka 2025 ka budget, jismein kharchon mein kami aur companies, ameeron, aur energy par tax barhane ki baat hai, par bhi nazar rakhi gayi.

EURUSD jo jo pichle hafte ke aakhir mein tha, us par bechne walon ka qasr tha, jo phir se kharidne walon ke bullish dabao ko rokne mein kaamyaab rahe. Unhone 1.0950-1.0952 ke bechne walon ke resistance area ko barqarar rakha. Kharidne wale ek baar phir is bechne walon ke defense area ko todne mein nakam rahe, jisse bechne walon ne price par control hasil kiya aur kafi taqat se bearish dabao dalne shuru kiye, jo price ko phir se neeche ki taraf le gaya.

Agar hum Daily time frame par Moving Average indicator ka jaiza lein, to yeh dekha ja sakta hai ke price ya candle abhi bhi bechne walon ke control mein hai, jo price ko 1.0935 par MA 100 Blue area mein barqarar rakha hua hai. Aaj ki trading mein dekha gaya hai ke price ya candle MA 100 Blue area ke neeche chalne lagi hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke EURUSD pair ka bazaar ab bhi kafi gehri bearish taraf ja raha hai aur yeh MA 200 Yellow area par 1.0870-1.0872 tak pahunch sakta hai, jo kharidne walon ne demand support area ke taur par sambhal rakha hai.

Somvar ki trading mein, Asian market mein bechne walon ki koshish ko kharidne walon ne roka, jo zyada majbooti se aaye aur jisse unhone bearish se bullish ki taraf halat ko ulatne mein kaamyaabi hasil ki. Unka maqsad bechne walon ke resistance area ko 1.0950-1.0952 ke upar todna hai. Agar yeh area mazboot taur par tod diya gaya, to EURUSD pair ka price bullish taur par aur bhi upar ki taraf barhne lagega, jiska agla target mazboot bechne walon ke supply resistance area 1.0996-1.0998 tak hoga.

**Nateejah:**

Agar price bechne walon ke resistance area ko mazboot taur par todti hai, to kharidne ki trading options li ja sakti hain. Is ke liye pending buy-stop order 1.0950-1.0952 par rakha ja sakta hai, jiska take profit (TP) area 1.0997-1.0998 hoga.

Agar price kharidne walon ke support area ko mazboot taur par todti hai, to bechne ki trading options li ja sakti hain. Is ke liye pending sell-stop order 1.0906-1.0905 par rakha ja sakta hai, jiska TP area 1.0886-1.0885 hoga.

**T E C H N I C A L _ A N A L Y S I S**
**E U R / U S D**

Sab ko subh bakhair forum ke doston. EUR/USD is waqt 1.0922 par trade ho raha hai. Aayiye aaj ke EUR/USD market price changes ko dekhte hain. EUR/USD ki prices kal se zyada nahi badli hain. Iss waqt EUR/USD ki price seller ki area mein dakhil hoti nazar aa rahi hai. Ab mujhe sirf market sentiment ka response dekhna hai. Agar buyer sentiment zyada dominant hota hai, toh EUR/USD ki price wapas upar aa sakti hai. Chart par, Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator sell signals de raha hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) is waqt 34.1267 par hai. Is waqt, moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator chart par EUR/USD bechne ka signal de raha hai kyunki signal line ya slow line zero line ya midline ke neeche hai. Moving average indicator sellers ki taqat ko dikhata hai. EUR/USD ab 20-day exponential moving average ke neeche trade ho raha hai. Saath hi, 50-day exponential moving average bhi current EUR/USD price ke upar hai, jo bearish signal dikhata hai. Neeche diye gaye teen expected targets hain jo maine is time frame chart par observe kiye hain jo mein ne attached diagram mein dikhaya hai.

EUR/USD ke liye critical resistance level 1.1016 hai aur critical support level 1.0790 hai. Is waqt agar EUR/USD support level 1.0790 ke neeche girta hai, toh yeh further 1.0614 ya 1.0462 tak gir sakta hai. Lekin agar EUR/USD upper resistance level 1.1016 ko todta hai, toh yeh mazid taqat pakar sakta hai aur 1.1256 ya 1.1567 tak ja sakta hai, jo ke 2nd aur 3rd resistance levels hain.

Agar market iss waqt ki range ke neeche decline karta hai, toh yeh bechne ka ek behtareen mauqa hoga. Mein aap se guzarish karunga ke aap apni raye zaroor dein. Aap sab ko behtareen aur munafa dene wale deals ki dua deta hoon.

Chart par istemal hone wale indicators:

• MACD indicator
• RSI indicator period 14
• 50-day exponential moving average (Orange color)
• 20-day exponential moving average (Magenta color)

thanda hone ka imkaan hai, jo economic slowdown ki chinta ko barhata hai. Is wajah se Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein interest rate cut ka imkaan barh gaya hai, jo Euro ko madad de raha hai. Jabke kamzor US dollar EUR/USD ko kuch madad de raha hai, mixed Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data bullish sentiment ko kuch had tak dheela kar raha hai. Preliminary Eurozone PMI expectations se niche aaya, lekin 50 level se upar raha, jo expansion ko darshata hai. Lekin, Germany jo Eurozone ka sabse bara economy hai, dusre maheenay ke liye contraction ka shikaar raha. Eurozone mein slow wage growth bhi EUR/USD pair ke barhne ki sambhavnayein kam kar sakta hai. ECB ka July policy meeting bhi is ka izhaar karta hai. Recent data se ye bhi samne aaya hai ke US job growth March tak kafi kamzor thi. US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims ke barhne se labor market ke thanda hone ka andaza lagaya ja raha hai. US Manufacturing PMI ke girne se bhi economic slowdown ke imkaan barh gaye hain. Ye factors mil kar market mein speculation barhati hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) shayad September se rate-cutting cycle shuru kar de. Jabke USD ne apne saal ke low se kuch recovery dekhi hai, ye recovery broader economic concerns se dhaki hui hai, jo EUR/USD pair ko mixed Eurozone PMI data ke bawajood support deti hai. ECB ke July ki policy meeting minutes ke mutabiq, September ka meeting monetary policy restriction ko dobara assess karne ka sahi waqt maana ja raha hai. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks ne 2% inflation target ko achieve karne par confidence zahir kiya aur economic uncertainties ko bhi maangliya. Unhone September mein ek aur interest rate cut ke liye tayyari ka bhi izhaar kiya. Is liye, agar EUR/USD

# EUR/USD Pair Ka Halat

Pichle hafte, EUR/USD ka band hona bikri karon ke haath mein tha, jo ke kharidaron ki bullish pressure ko rokne mein kamiyab rahe. Bikri karon ne 1.0950-1.0952 ke aas paas ke resistance area ko sambhal liya, jahan kharidaron ki koshishon ko rok diya. Har baar, kharidaron ne is key level ko todne ki koshish ki, lekin bikri karon ki control ke wajah se yeh mumkin na ho saka. Is wajah se mazboot bearish pressure dekhne ko mila, jo ke phir se price ko neeche le gaya.

## Moving Average Indicator Ka Tajziya

Agar hum daily time frame ka tajziya karein, to Moving Average (MA) indicator ka istemal karke yeh saaf hai ke price ab bhi bikri karon ke control mein hai. Price ab MA 100 Blue area par hai, jo ke 1.0935 ke aas paas hai. Aaj ke trading mein dekha gaya ke price ya candle MA 100 Blue area se neeche gir gayi hai, jo yeh darust karta hai ke EUR/USD pair ab gehri bearish trend mein hai. Is ka matlab yeh hai ke yeh pair aage aur bhi neeche ja sakta hai, MA 200 Yellow area tak, jo ke 1.0870-1.0872 ke aas paas hai. Yeh level kharidaron ke liye ek demand support area hai.

## Asian Market Session Mein Trading

Monday ke trading mein, jab Asian market session chal raha tha, bikri karon ke koshishon ko ek mazboot kharidari pressure se mukabla karna pada. Kharidaron ne bazar mein aur zyada force ke sath dakhil hue, jis se momentum bearish se bullish mein shift hua. Unka primary goal yeh hai ke bikri karon ke resistance area, jo ke 1.0950-1.0952 ke beech hai, ko todna hai. Agar kharidaron ne is level ko mazbooti se tod diya, to yeh ek mazboot bullish move ko trigger kar sakta hai, jo EUR/USD ki price ko upar le ja sakta hai.

## Agle Targets Aur Resistance Levels

Bulls ka agla target woh strong resistance area hai jo ke 1.0996-1.0998 ke aas paas hai, jahan bikri karon ne ek aur supply zone establish kiya hai. Agar is level ko test kiya gaya, to yeh bazar ke liye ek critical point banega, jahan yeh tay karna hoga ke bullish momentum aage barh sakta hai ya bikri karon ek baar phir control hasil kar lete hain. Abhi ke liye, kharidaron aur bikri karon ke darmiyan intense battle chal rahi hai, jahan dono taraf apni dominance establish karne ki koshish kar rahe hain.

## Key Levels Par Nazar Rakhna

Traders ko in key levels par nazar rakhni chahiye, kyun ke yeh agla major move signal kar sakte hain EUR/USD pair ke liye. Agar kharidaron ne resistance level ko tod diya, to yeh bullish momentum ko majboot kar sakta hai. Lekin agar bikri karon ne control hasil kiya, to price ke neeche jane ka rukh pakka ho sakta hai.

**Conclusion:**

Aaj ki trading mein, sab kuch in key levels par depend karta hai. Market ke participants ko in levels par ghanisht nazar rakhni chahiye. Jab tak bikri karon ka pressure barqarar hai, tab tak kharidaron ko bhi apni strategies tayyar rakhni chahiye. Is waqt, EUR/USD ka halat bohot hi volatile hai aur traders ko samajhna hoga ke market ka rukh kaise badal raha hai.

Yeh financial analysis aapko trading ke liye ek gehri soch aur samajh dene ke liye hai, jisse aap apni trading strategies ko behtar bana sakte hain. Aakhir mein, market ke har move par nazar rakhna aapko behtareen fayda de sakta hai, chahe woh bullish ho ya bearish.

### T E C H N I C A L _ A N A L Y S I S E U R / U S D

Subah bakhair, dosto. EUR/USD is waqt 1.0922 par trade kar raha hai jab yeh likha gaya. Aaj ke EUR/USD market price changes ko dekhte hain. EUR/USD ki prices kal se zyada nahi badli. Haal filhal ke halat mein, EUR/USD ki price lagta hai ke seller's area mein dakhil ho gayi hai. Ab mujhe sirf market sentiment ke response ka intezaar karna hoga. Agar buyer sentiment zyada dominant hota hai, to yeh mumkin hai ke EUR/USD ki price dobara upar chali jaye.

Chart par, Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator sell signals mein dikhai de raha hai. RSI is waqt 34.1267 par hai. Is waqt moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator bhi EUR/USD ko sell karne ka signal de raha hai, kyun ke signal line ya slow line zero line ya midline ke neeche hai. Moving average indicator sellers ki taqat ko zahir kar raha hai. EUR/USD is waqt 20-day exponential moving average ke neeche trade kar raha hai. Sath hi, 50-day exponential moving average bhi mojooda EUR/USD price se upar hai, jo ke bearish signal ko zahir karta hai.

Mujhe iss waqt frame chart par jo teen targets nazar aaye hain, unhein neeche wazeh kiya gaya hai. Critical resistance level EUR/USD ke liye 1.1016 hai aur critical support level 1.0790 hai. Agar EUR/USD 1.0790 ke support se neeche girta hai, to yeh mazeed gir kar 1.0614 ya 1.0462 tak pohanch sakta hai. Magar agar EUR/USD upar 1.1016 ke resistance ko tor deta hai, to EUR/USD mazid mazboot ho kar 1.1256 ya 1.1567 tak ja sakta hai, jo ke doosra aur teesra resistance level hai.

Zahir tor par, agar market mojooda range se neeche girta hai, to yeh sell karne ka acha waqt hoga. Main yeh kehna chahoon ga ke mujhe aap ke comments ka intezaar rahega. Main sab ko behterin aur profitable deals ki dua deta hoon.

**Indicators jo chart mein istemal hue:**
- **MACD indicator**
- **RSI indicator period 14**
- **50-day exponential moving average color Orange**
- **20-day exponential moving average color Magenta**

Euro (EUR) apni defensive position ko barqarar rakha hua hai US dollar (USD) ke khilaf, aur is waqt 1.0935 ke ird gird trade kar raha hai Europe mein trading ke aghaz ke doran Jummah ke din. Jumeraat ko jari hone walay US inflation ke data ne, jo expectations se zyada tha, dollar ko kuch support faraham kiya, jo is currency pair ki upside ko limit kar raha hai. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) mein rebound aur September ke liye stronger-than-expected employment report ne yeh imkanat barha diye hain ke Federal Reserve aahista aahista faiz ki sharah mein kami karne lage. CPI release ke baad, investors ne Fed ke November mein 25 basis points ka rate cut karne ke imkan ko 83.3% tak barha diya hai, CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq.
Market ke hisson ka dhyan US Producer Price Index (PPI) aur Michigan Consumer Confidence Index ke preliminary reading par hoga, jo Jummah ke din jari hone wale hain. PPI ka tamami imkaan yeh hai ke yeh September mein year-on-year 1.6% barh jaaye, jab ke core PPI ke 2.7% barhnay ki توقع hai. Magar agar report kamzor natayij dikhaye, to yeh dollar ko euro ke muqable mein kamzor kar sakti hai.

European Central Bank (ECB) ke policymakers faiz ki sharah mein kami ka mutalba kar rahe hain ek sust hoti hui economy ke doran, jo euro (EUR) par kuch selling pressure dal sakti hai. ECB se is saal do dafa faiz kam karne ki توقع hai, aur aglay hafta apni deposit rate ko 3.5% tak le aayega. Reuters ke survey mein 90% se zyada economists aglay hafta rate cut ka intezar kar rahe hain, aur isi tarah ki kami December mein bhi کی توقع hai. EUR/USD pichlay haftay ke 14 maheenay ke high 1.1213 se neeche aa gaya hai, jis ne short-term bullish bias ko khatam kar diya hai. Magar, yeh abhi tak 20-day simple moving average (SMA) ke qareeb 1.1108 par barqarar hai.

Momentum indicators bhi near-term neutral scenario ko tasdeek karte hain, jahan Relative Strength Index (RSI) lagta hai ke 50 se ooper hai, jab ke Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) apni red signal line se neeche gira hai magar abhi tak positive territory mein hai. 20-day moving average sab se qareebi support hai, lekin agar yeh break hota hai to focus neeche ki taraf shift ho sakta hai, aur khaaskar us uptrend line par jo ooper hai. 50-day moving average par bhi halki سی dip hai jo 1.1036 پر ہے. Agar yeh barriers toot jate hain, to yeh 1.1000 level ko expose kare ga, jo ke September se sab se neeche hai, aur envisaged double top ke ird gird 1.1200 par hai.

### CURRENCY PAIR EUR-USD
Dabao neeche ki taraf hai, is liye chhote timeframes par filhal main 1.087-1.089 tak girne ka intezaar kar raha hoon, aur phir, zaroori nahi ke wo foran wapas bounce karein, magar jab tak pressure north ki taraf na jaye, yeh foran nahi hoga. Agar pressure neeche ke doran north ki taraf rebuild ho jata hai, to imkan zyada hai ke wo 1.087-1.089 ko cross karke aage barhein, aur us waqt yeh zyada mumkin hai ke wo wapas bounce karen. Jahan tak boomerang ka taluq hai, mujhe sirf itna yaad hai ke maine 1.0830 ka level thoda upar liya tha, aur phir plus ya minus.

Waisa hi, jaise hum boomerang ko bina correction ke lete hain, yeh aam si baat hai; is ke liye, main aglay haftay yeh possibility ko rad nahi karta ke hum bilkul neeche press ho jayein aur boomerang tak 1.0830 pe pohanch jayein. Bilkul, wo zigzag upar bhi kar sakte hain, magar yeh depend karta hai ke kahan. Filhal, main 1.1050 ka upward level leta hoon; is se zyada mumkin nahi. Sellers ke liye ek alarm signal shuru ho jaye ga. Agar aap ko yaad ho ke boomerang ka kaise kaam kiya gaya tha, to wahan koi correction nahi hui thi, balkay seedha wapas chale gaye the north ki taraf. Humein yeh dekhna ho ga ke price 1.087-1.089 ke chhote support level par kaisa reaction show karta hai.

To, bilkul, wo chhoti si northern rollbacks de sakte hain, magar wo boomerang tak neeche jaari bhi rakh sakte hain bina kisi bara rollback ke; yahan zyada nahi bacha, aur phir hum dekh sakte hain ke aage kahan jaana hai. Boomerangs aam tor par boundary zones ke tor par achha kaam karte hain, jahan se wo bara continuation break kar sakte hain, aur boomerang se rebound ke baad zyada imkan hota hai ke reversal ho jaye. Bara timeframes par, main abhi bhi 2023 ke highs ke cross hone ka intezaar kar raha hoon aur mazeed upar movement ka intezaar hai, magar yeh weekly timeframe ka hai; yeh koi jaldi wali kahani nahi hogi.

Mera topic EUR/USD currency pair ke price behaviour ka analysis hai. Chart se yeh maloom hota hai ke pair ne haal hi mein 1.0889 support level ko test kiya aur ab 1.0900 par trade kar raha hai. RSI indicator middle range ke qareeb hai, jo halki si upward uncertainty dikha raha hai, jabke AO (Awesome Oscillator) ek potential reversal ka ishara de raha hai, jahan selling opportunities ban sakti hain. Price ne pichle din ke trading range se neeche settle kiya hai. Halanki signals ziada negative nahi hain, ek modest upward movement ho sakti hai. Mujhe umeed hai ke 1.0929 resistance level ko phir se test kiya jaayega. Lekin, abhi ke liye 9th figure ke oopar breakout ki baat karna zaroori nahi, lekin agar yeh is se neeche reh jaata hai, to downward trend mazid strong ho sakta hai. Filhal, euro kamzor ho raha hai, jabke dollar stable hai, jo ke doosri major currency pairs mein bhi nazar aata hai. Halanki doosre significant pairs ne pehle neeche move kiya, lekin unhone apni zyada ground recover kar li hai. Magar, EUR/USD pair ab tak heavy selling pressure mein hai.

Aaj, EUR/USD pair apni decline ko 1.0889 tak le aaya, halanki yeh is se aage nahi gira. U.S. session mein trading slow hui, shayad Canada ke holiday ke wajah se. H4 chart par koi significant change nahi hui, lekin last week ke low se halki si bounce dekhi gayi hai. Yeh downward trend zigzag pattern ko extend kar raha hai, aur sooner or later ek upward correction aani zaroori lagti hai. Mein descending channel ko dobara redraw nahi kar sakta kyun ke ab yeh irrelevant hai. Upward movement rare hai lekin iss context mein possible hai. Halat ke bawajood hum downward pressure face kar rahe hain, jabke MACD par increasing divergences nazar aa rahi hain. Short positions lena thoda uncomfortable lag raha hai, lekin long positions lena bhi abhi thoda jaldi hai. Yeh expectations bhi ho sakti hain ke ECB is hafta 51 basis points se rate cut kar de, jabke pehle 24 expected tha.

signal dete hain ke buying saturation point jaldi hit ho sakta hai. Agar price consistently 2 Moving Average lines aur 1.1100 ke psychological level se ooper rehta hai, toh rally bullish trend direction mein continue kar sakti hai. Awesome Oscillator (AO) ka histogram jo level 0 ya negative area mein hai, yeh dikhata hai ke downtrend momentum weak ho raha hai, kyun ke histogram volume abhi tak widen nahi ho pa raha aur positive area ko cross karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Substantial decline ka imkaan kam hai, lekin pehle jo momentum tha woh fade ho gaya hai. Price ko aaj ke opening level ke neeche consolidate karna padega. Oscillators ne bearish turn le liya hai, aur histogram pe local bearish divergence bhi dikhai de rahi hai. Aaj ke price increase ne histogram bars ko zero line ke ooper move nahi karwaya, jo weak upward momentum ko dikhata hai. Hamein dekhna padega ke aaj ka session kaise close hota hai before making further decisions. Channels abhi bhi upward trend kar rahe hain, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke primary movement abhi bhi bullish hai aur koi breakdown nahi hua. Agar junior channel ka mid line senior channel ke mid line se neeche pull ho jata hai ya koi clear downtrend signal milta hai, toh selling opportunity ka mauqa ho sakta hai. Is situation mein target weekly opening level ho sakta hai, jo ke 1.1076 ke aas paas marked hai. Lekin jab tak koi clear shift in direction ka indication nahi milta, caution zaroori hai. Agar pair 1.10 level tak girta hai aur yeh level hold karta hai, toh pair 1.0961 tak neeche ja sakta hai. Yeh decline recent gains ko erase kar sakta hai jo Fed rate expectations ke wajah se aaye the. ECB bhi further rate cuts karne wala hai, lekin decline Fed ke sharp movements ke mukable surprisingly gradual hai. Agar bullish outlook ko dekhain, toh EUR/USD ko 1.1071 break karna hoga, jo ke din ka peak hai. Ek recovery pair ko 1.11 ya usse upar le ja sakti hai. Main pair ko closely monitor kar raha hoon jab yeh possible bottom ke near hai. 1.0951 ka support strong hai, followed by 1.0931. 1.10 level bhi significant hai, lekin 1.0987 ki relevance clear nahi hai. Price bullish weakness show kar raha hai aur intraday local bearish trend ko follow kar raha hai.

Thursday ko U.S. ka inflation data aaya, jo ke expectations se zyada tha, to isne dollar ko kuch support diya, jo ke EUR/USD pair ki upside ko limit kar raha hai. U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) mein rehlaai aur September ka stronger-than-expected employment report Federal Reserve ke future mein interest rates cut karne ke imkanaat ko barha raha hai. CPI ke release ke baad, investors ne November mein 25 basis point Fed rate cut ki umeed 83.3% tak barha di hai, CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq. Market participants ab U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) ke September ke liye aur Michigan Consumer Confidence Index ke October ke liye pehli reading ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo Friday ko release honay walay hain. Overall PPI ko umeed hai ke yeh 1.6% year-on-year barhay ga, jab ke core PPI ke 2.7% year-on-year barhne ki projection hai. Magar agar yeh report kamzor natayej dikhata hai, to isse dollar euro ke muqable mein kamzor ho sakta hai.Dusri taraf, European Central Bank (ECB) ke policymakers economy ke slowdown ke douran interest rates cut karne ke haq mein hain, jo euro par kuch selling pressure la sakta hai. ECB ke is saal do dafa interest rates cut karne ki umeed hai, aur agle hafte yeh apna deposit rate 3.5% tak neeche kar sakta hai. Reuters ke survey ke mutabiq, 90% economists agle hafte rate cut ki umeed kar rahe hain, jab ke December mein ek aur follow-up cut ka imkaan hai. EUR/USD ne pichle hafte ka 14-mahina high 1.1213 se retreat kiya hai, jo ke short-term bullish bias ko khatam kar raha hai. Magar, yeh abhi tak 20-day simple moving average (SMA) ke qareeb hold kar raha hai jo ke 1.1108 par hai. Momentum indicators near-term neutral scenario ko confirm karte hain, jab ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 ke upar barqarar hai, aur Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) apni red signal line ke neeche aa gaya hai lekin positive territory mein abhi tak mazboot hai.20-day moving average sabse qareebi support hai, lekin agar isay break kar diya gaya to focus downside ki taraf ho sakta hai, khaaskar uptrend line ke upar. 50-day moving average par thora sa dip 1.1036 ke qareeb hai. Agar yeh barriers breach hote hain, to yeh 1.1000 level ko expose karein ge, jo ke September se sabse lowest level hai, aur envisioned double top jo 1.1200 ke qareeb hai. Yeh southern rollbacks dikhate hain, magar yeh bhi boomerang ke neeche jaari reh sakte hain baghair kisi serious rollbacks ke; yahan zyada door nahi bacha, aur phir hum dekh sakte hain ke agay kidhar jaana hai. Boomerangs aksar border zones ki tarah kaam karte hain, jaise ke yeh badi continuation ki taraf break kar sakte hain, aur boomerang se rebound ke baad,

jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew EUR/USD tab tak purani halat mein nahi rahe ga jab tak Fed ka faisla nahi aata. Aap shayad European Central Bank (ECB) ke meeting ka bhi zikar kar rahe hain, jo Thursday ko hai, jo is maamle mein ahmiyat rakhti hai. Maine forecast calendar ko dekha aur mujhe dekhar hairani hui ke 0.6 basis points ka rate reduction plan kiya gaya hai, jo rate ko 4.25% se 3.64% tak le aayega. Agar yeh forecast theek raha, toh EUR/USD mein kam zyada girawat dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Lekin, agar ECB sirf 0.5 ya 0.2 points ka reduction karta hai, toh EUR/USD ko mazid taqat mil sakti hai. Aise mein ECB ka rate cut dollar ko mazid majboot karne mein madadgar ho sakta hai aur EUR/USD ko kamzor kar sakta hai. Pichle Jumme ko EUR/USD pair ne khaas taur par behtareen recovery dikhai, jo ke kuch 4 hafton ke baad sab se neechi levels se upar aya. Yeh positive momentum pair ko haftay ke trading range ke upar end tak le gaya, jo lagbhag 1.1090 ke aas-paas tha. Is upar chadhai ko kamzor US dollar ne support diya, jo ke weaker-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) report ki wajah se tha. PPI data ne Federal Reserve ke agle haftay zyada aggressive rate cut ki umeed ko mazid barhadiya

Meri daily aur 4-hour charts ka analysis karnay se yeh maloom hota hai ke technical traders aur wo log jo news par react karte hain unke darmiyan aik jung chal rahi hai, aur news par react karne walay traders recent mein jeet rahe hain. Yeh baat dikhati hai ke fundamental analysis ka ghalba hota hai jo technical indicators ko peeche chorh deta hai. Is waqt main ehtiyat barat raha hoon aur stop losses ke baghair koi trade nahi kar raha. Kal EUR/USD pair 1.0900 se neeche nahi ja saka, halan ke dollar mein kafi strong movement thi bina kisi significant news ke. Trump ke hawalay se speculation jari hai jo dollar ko aur mazid mazbooti de sakti hai. Main intezar kar raha hoon ya to aik upward correction ka ya phir aik strong break ka jo 1.0900 se neeche ho, is se pehle ke main koi trade banaoon. EUR/USD pair clearly daily chart par downward trend mein hai, jo sell orders open karne ke liye aik acha mahaul faraham karta hai. MACD aur Awesome Oscillator (AO) dono hi negative territory mein chalay gaye hain, jo bearish sentiment ko aur mazid mazboot karte hain. Elliott Wave theory ke mutabiq, correction wave C apna momentum hasil kar rahi hai, aur yeh wave sab se lambi correction wave ban sakti hai, jo profitable trades ka acha mauqa hai. Mera andaza hai ke price aakhirkar 261.8 Fibonacci level, jo ke 1.0662 par hai, ko breach karegi, jo aur zyada downside potential ko zahir karta hai. Is target tak pohanchne mein thoda waqt lag sakta hai, lekin is trend mein faida uthaanay ke liye sabr zaroori hoga. EUR/USD pair apni downward movement jari rakhe hue hai, aur abhi hal hi mein 1.09 se neeche chali gayi hai, aur apne recent lows ko update kar rahi hai. Agle key targets ab 1.0880 ke aas-paas ubhar rahe hain. Aaj ke rebound ki koshishen nakaam rahi hain kyun ke price ne din bhar girawat ko jari rakha, jo dollar ki puri din ki mazbooti se chalay gaya. Aage barhnay ke liye dollar ki performance badi ahem hogi. Main abhi ehtiyat barat raha hoon aur current levels par sell nahi karna chahta. Lekin main yeh expect kar raha hoon ke agar 1.0880 ke neeche girawat hoti hai, aur agar koi false breakout hoti hai to main buy karne ka sochoonga. Half-hour timeframe par EUR/USD pair ka analysis karne par maloom hota hai ke 1.1000 ke key level se rebound ke baad aik clear downward price channel form ho gaya hai. Filhal price 1.0906 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. Aaj ka pehla local minimum 1.0900 se neeche update hokar 1.0885 tak gaya, jisme sellers price ko aur neeche le jaane mein nakaam rahe, jis ki wajah se ek rebound dekhne ko mila. Upper boundary ke taraf aik upward correction ka potential hai, lekin mujhe lagta hai ke zyada likely scenario yeh hai ke decline ka silsila current levels se jari rahega, aur lower boundary of the channel, jo 1.0870 se 1.0875 ke aas-paas hai, ko target karega.