chart ki wave analysis ke mutabiq, EUR/USD pair mein koi tabdili nahi aayi hai. Pichle saal mein, hum ne sirf teen-wave structures dekhi hain jo baar baar ek dosre ke saath muntakhib hoti hain. Mojooda doran ek aur teen-wave structure ka tashkeel jari hai - ek neeche ki taraf, jo pichle saal 18 July ko shuru hui thi. Tasawwur kiya jata hai ke wave 1 perfect ho gayi hai, aur wave 2 ya b ne teen ya chaar martaba mushkilat ka samna kiya, lekin halat ke mutabiq ab ye bhi perfect ho gaya hai, kyun ke pair ka girao ek mahine se zyada ka waqt se jari hai.
Trend ka ooperi hissa ab bhi dobara shuru ho sakta hai, lekin is surat mein iski andaruni banawat parhne mein mushkil hogi. Main yeh yaad dilata hoon ke mein woh wave structures pehchanne ki koshish karta hoon jo doosri ta'weelon ko bardasht nahi karti hain. Agar mojooda wave analysis durust hai, to market ne ab wave 3 ya c ki tashkeel par guzar gaya hai. 1.0788 level ko torne ki kamyabi, jo ke 76.4% Fibonacci ke mutabiq hai, ek baar phir market ki tayyar hai sale ke liye. Ab agla maqsood 1.0637 level hai, jo ke 100.0% Fibonacci ke barabar hai. Lekin, mein euro ki girao ka intezar yahan tak nahi karta. Wave 3 ya c waqt aur maqamat mein zyada wusat hona chahiye.
Euro ki girao jald shuru ho sakti hai.
EUR/USD pair ne Jumma ko koi tabdili nahi dikhayi, aur harkat ki range buhat kamzor thi. Din bhar kuch khaas khabar ka paya nahi gaya, halaanke kuch tajaweezain Germany ke IFO aur GDP ke reporton par dene wale analiyston ne highlight ki. Magar meray khayal mein, inn dataon ka koi asar market ki hosla afzai par nahi hua. Chothay quarter mein GDP ka aakhri hasool -0.3% tha, jaisa ke pehli tehqiqat mein tha. Koi taajub nahi tha; Germany ki maeeshat officially ek recession mein dakhil ho gayi thi, aur market ko "jawab" dene ke liye kuch bhi nahi tha. IFO indices, apni izzat ke bawajood, doosray indicators hain jo market participants ko kam dhyan dete hain.
In sab baaton par mabni, shuru mein Jumma se zyada ummeed nahi thi. Mujhe yeh bharosa hai ke ab 1.0880 level ko torne ki nakam koshish buhat zyada ahem hai. Kyun ke maqsoodana wave 3 ya c ki tashkeel jari hai, jo ke buhat lambi shakal mein hogi, is mein yeh bhi mumkin hai ke is haftay mein hum ne andaruni wave 2 ki tashkeel dekhi ho. Agar yeh sach hai toh 1.0880 ko torne ki nakami is wave ki perfect hone ki dalil ho sakti hai. Agar yeh fehmi durust hai, to pair agle haftay mein wave 3 mein apna girao dobara shuru kar sakta hai. Main yeh manta hoon ke ab koi khabar ka background is wave ki tashkeel mein dakhil nahi ho sakta.
Aam taur par:
EUR/USD ki analysis ke mutabiq, mein ye natija nikalta hoon ke bearish wave set ka construction jaari hai. Wave 2 ya b perfect ho chuki hai, is liye qareebi mustaqbil mein mein umeed karta hoon ke impulsive descending wave 3 ya c ki tashkeel jari rahegi jisme pair ka zor daar girao hoga.
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