eur/usd

1.1150 ka level cross kar liya hai jab US dollar weak hua, specially Federal Reserve ke rate cut ke baad. Market mein expectation hai ke agay aur bhi easing measures ho sakti hain, jo euro ko mazeed strength de rahi hai against the dollar. Is waqt jo major resistance level hai wo 1.12 par hai, aur agar yeh level break hota hai to hum aur bhi gains dekh sakte hain. Support zone abhi 1.1075 aur 1.1125 ke darmiyan hai. Agar aap trading karna chahtay hain to yeh level bohot important hain. DXY USD Index, jo US dollar ko track karta hai, wo 100.70 ke neeche aa gaya hai jab wo apnay weekly high 101.50 ko hold nahi kar saka. Federal Reserve ne apni lending rate ko 50 basis points se cut kar diya hai, jo ab 4.75%-5.00% range mein aa gayi hai. Yeh decision dikhata hai ke policymakers labor market ko support karna chahte hain aur unko inflation ke 2% target ke baray mein confidence hai. Euro zone se aane walay inflation data ne European Central Bank ko bhi support diya hai ke wo apni rate-cutting cycle ko dheere dheere continue kar sakein, jo EUR/USD ko aur upar le ja sakta hai. EUR/USD ke overall trend main abhi tak koi tabdeeli nahi aayi. Upward movement abhi bhi dominant hai, aur mazeed growth ka potential hai jab tak 1.1151 ka critical level breach nahi hota. Is waqt pair narrow range main 1.1100 ke upar trade kar raha hai, lekin kuch pressure ki wajah se price bearish ho sakti hai. Yeh development achi hai, kyun ke ek significant pullback hamesha trading ke liye acha hota hai. Lekin dollar ka impact aaj bohot aham rahega, khas tor par Federal Reserve ke actions ke baad. Market kisi bhi direction main move kar sakta hai, aur yeh narrow range shaayad upcoming news ka pehla signal ho. Powell ki remarks bhi next move par important asar dalenge. Despite is uncertainty ke, mera outlook bullish hai, aur mujhe lagta hai ke price upar jaayegi. Lekin agar price 1.111 ke neeche girti hai, khaaskar 1.1051 region tak, to main buying ka sochunga un levels par
Tuesday ko U.S. retail sales release hongi, magar substantial volatility ki umeed tab tak nahi hai jab tak data expectations se bohat zyada different na ho. August ke liye U.S. retail sales growth slow hone ki umeed hai 0.2%, jab ke July mai yeh 1.0% thi. Core retail sales, jo autos ko exclude karti hain, 0.3% tak gir sakti hain, jo pehle 0.4% thi. Investors yakin rakhte hain ke Fed Wednesday ko ek naya rate

EUR/USD mein Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.1237 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon, GBP/USD currency pair ke neeche jaane ke chances abhi bhi hain, halanki

EUR/USD currency pair abhi apni recent kamyabi ko barqarar rakhne mein mushkil ka samna kar rahi hai. Do din tak positive movement ke baad, yeh pair US session ke dauran ek narrow trading band mein oscillate kar rahi hai. Abhi ke liye spot prices 1.1180 ke critical level ke thoda upar hain aur lagbhag unchanged hain jabke dealers US ki ahem economic data ka intezar kar rahe hain. Aakhri update ke mutabiq, EUR/USD takriban 1.1140 ke aas paas trade kar rahi hai.
Aage dekhte hue, Euro ke bulls ka focus kuch ahem resistance levels par hai, jisme 1.1200 ka recent high aur July 2023 ka 1.1276 peak shamil hain. Doosri taraf, 1.1100 ka psychological support level neeche ki taraf movement ke khilaf ek barrier ke tor par kaam kar sakta hai. Yeh resistance aur support levels ka balance near-term mein pair ki performance ke liye ihtiyat pasand optimism ko zahir karta hai.

### EUR/USD ke Fundamentals
Haal hi mein aaye data ne Eurozone ki economic challenges ko ujagar kiya hai, khaaskar uski do bari economies mein. Germany ki industrial production mein July mein 2.4% ki significant girawat aayi, jo expected sirf 0.3% decline ke muqable mein thi. France ne bhi ek downtrend report kiya, jisme industrial output 0.5% se kam hui. Yeh disappointing numbers bearish outlook ko faroogh dete hain, jaise ke Reuters ke ek survey mein dikhaya gaya jo August 30 se September 5 tak conduct hua, jisme 85% economists ne anticipate kiya ke European Central Bank (ECB) aane wale meetings mein interest rate cuts apply karegi.

In economic challenges ko madde nazar rakhte hue, kai ECB officials market ke potential interest rate cuts ke hawale se comfortable nazar aa rahe hain. ECB Executive Board ke member Piero Cipollone ne ek interview mein is khauf ka izhar kiya ke "ECB ka stance bohat zyada restrictive ho sakta hai." Yeh jazba Eurozone ki economic situation par badhne wali fikr ko zahir karta hai aur monetary policy mein ek shift ke imkaan ko faroogh deta hai.

### Continual Time Frame Technical Outlook
1.1150 level ke upar earnings ko barqarar rakhne mein nakami ke bawajood, EUR/USD ka near-term outlook ihtiyaat ke saath optimistic lag raha hai. Pair ne 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke paas support establish kiya hai, jo ke lagbhag 1.1157 par hai. Iske ilawa, longer-term indicators jaise 50-day aur 100-day EMAs, jo 1.1144 aur 1.1135 par hain, upward trend dikhate hain, jo future growth ka imkaan zahir karta hai. Iske ilawa, currency pair hourly chart par Rising Channel mein apni position barqarar rakhti hai, jo positive momentum ko zahir karta hai.

Technical indicators EUR/USD ke liye ek mixed picture paint karte hain. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.00 mark ke neeche aa gaya hai, jabke is se pehle yeh overbought status par 75.00 ke kareeb tha. Yeh decline is baat ka ishara karta hai ke momentum thanda ho sakta hai, jo traders ko upcoming economic data aur market developments ke hawale se apni positions dobara assess karne par majboor kar sakta hai

### EUR/USD Weekly Analysis

Main Euro Dollar pair ka weekly chart par jaiza le raha hoon. Jab yeh pair 0.9708 ke support ke qareeb trade kar raha tha, to European Central Bank (ECB) ne apni monetary policy ko tight karna shuru kiya. Is wajah se yeh pair resistance 1.11810 tak pohanch gaya. Phir kuch rumors aaye ke Federal Reserve (Fed) apni monetary policy ko tighten karna band kar dega. Us waqt ECB ke bare mein koi baat nahi ho rahi thi, lekin baad mein pata chala ke ECB ne Fed se pehle apni policy ko tight karna band kar diya.

Eurozone mein inflation ne 2% ka target achieve kar liya, aur ECB ko interest rates kaatne pad gaye. Jab Fed ne apni tightening policy band karne ka elan kiya, to is waqt pair 1.05588 par trade kar raha tha aur yeh rise karna shuru hua. Lekin baad mein yeh bhi pata chala ke Fed interest rates nahi kaat raha kyunki inflation ab bhi high thi. Phir jab inflation stagnate ho gayi, to yeh pair wapas previous lows par chala gaya aur range mein trade karne laga.

Ab agle Fed ke bayan se pehle, pair phir se 1.11810 ke resistance ki taraf barh raha hai. Inflation stagnate ho chuki hai aur yeh samajhna mushkil hai ke pair ke is rise ke peeche kya wajah hai. Halankeh Fed interest rates kaat raha hai aur inflation 3.2% par hai, yeh itna positive nahi lagta. Mera khayal hai ke pair phir se 1.07684 ke levels ke qareeb laut aayega, kyunki mujhe nahi lagta ke aisi inflation ke sath uptrend jaari rahega.

Mujhe lagta hai ke market ki current halat ko dekhte hue, yeh pair wapas purani low levels ki taraf aa sakta hai. Is waqt ke market dynamics aur economic indicators ko samajhna zaroori hai. Fed ke decisions ka direct asar currency pairs par hota hai, aur jab tak inflation ke numbers itne high hain, tab tak investor confidence mein kami aa sakti hai.

Is waqt EUR/USD pair ka trend thoda uncertain hai. Market participants ko chahiye ke woh Federal Reserve ke announcements aur inflation ki taraf dekhte rahein. Mujhe lagta hai ke short-term mein range-bound trading dekhne ko milegi, jab tak clear direction nahi milti. In sab factors ko madde nazar rakhtay hue, trading decisions lena behad zaroori hai, aur cautious approach rakhna behtar hoga.

EUR/USD pair ne hafta ke aakhir mein apni upar ki lehr mein rukawat dekhi, aur Wednesday ko pohanchay gaye pehle se high ko nahi touch kar paya. Halankeh recent sell-off ke bawajood US dollar (USD) ke, spot price 1.1125 level se upar hai. Euro ko support milne ka ek aham wajah US labor market ka kamzor hona hai. Wednesday ko release hui data se pata chala ke March mein US employment growth kafi kam thi jo pehle estimate se bahut kam thi. Is ke ilawa, unemployed logon ki bharat se labor market ke thanda hone ka imkaan hai, jo economic slowdown ki chinta ko barhata hai. Is wajah se Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein interest rate cut ka imkaan barh gaya hai, jo Euro ko madad de raha hai. Jabke kamzor US dollar EUR/USD ko kuch madad de raha hai, mixed Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data bullish sentiment ko kuch had tak dheela kar raha hai. Preliminary Eurozone PMI expectations se niche aaya, lekin 50 level se upar raha, jo expansion ko darshata hai. Lekin, Germany jo Eurozone ka sabse bara economy hai, dusre maheenay ke liye contraction ka shikaar raha. Eurozone mein slow wage growth bhi EUR/USD pair ke barhne ki sambhavnayein kam kar sakta hai. ECB ka July policy meeting bhi is ka izhaar karta hai. Recent data se ye bhi samne aaya hai ke US job growth March tak kafi kamzor thi. US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims ke barhne se labor market ke thanda hone ka andaza lagaya ja raha hai. US Manufacturing PMI ke girne se bhi economic slowdown ke imkaan barh gaye hain. Ye factors mil kar market mein speculation barhati hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) shayad September se rate-cutting cycle shuru kar de. Jabke USD ne apne saal ke low se kuch recovery dekhi hai, ye recovery broader economic concerns se dhaki hui hai, jo EUR/USD pair ko mixed Eurozone PMI data ke bawajood support deti hai. ECB ke July ki policy meeting minutes ke mutabiq, September ka meeting monetary policy restriction ko dobara assess karne ka sahi waqt maana ja raha hai. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks ne 2% inflation target ko achieve karne par confidence zahir kiya aur economic uncertainties ko bhi maangliya. Unhone September mein ek aur interest rate cut ke liye tayyari ka bhi izhaar kiya. Is liye, agar EUR/USD mein koi upar ka movement hota hai, toh wo resistance ka samna kar sakta hai, lekin Greenback ke bearish sentiment Euro ko madad de sakta hai.

EUR/USD ne wapis bounce back kiya jabke usne hafte ka aghaz kamzor surat mein kiya, jab Friday ka dip dekha gaya, lekin US jobs ke kamzor news bhi US dollar ko aur zyada girane ke liye kaafi nahi the.
Haal hi mein EUR/USD kyun mushkilat ka shikar raha?
Is hafte ke economic calendar ke shuruat mein aram ne dollar ko takreeban tamam badi currencies ke khilaf kuch support dila diya, siwaye yen ke, jisne EUR/USD par niche ka dabao dala. Ye Friday ke girawat ke baad hua jab latest US employment data ne Fed ke employment mein kamzori ke khauf ko tasdeeq kiya.
Fed ke chairman ne pehle hi August mein yeh confirm kar diya tha ke September se interest rates mein kami aayegi, is liye jobs report itni kamzor nahi thi ke investors ko 50 basis point cut ka andaza ho. Is wajah se dollar mein halki recovery hui. Friday ki soft jobs report ne rate markets mein pehle to halchal machai, lekin phir sentiment aur ehtiyat par shift ho gaya, aur aglay FOMC meeting ke liye 25 basis point cut ki umeed barh gayi.
Lekin ab umeedain barh rahi hain ke is saal ke baad aur aglay saal ke shuruat mein aur zyada aggressive rate cuts ho sakte hain, khaaskar ek Fed official ne “frontloading” ko kam karne ka mashwara diya hai. Lekin US ke kamzor data, girti hui oil prices, aur dovish Fed turn ke bawajood, EUR/USD ka forecast abhi bhi thora bullish hai jab tak ke is hafte ke aane wale macro events mein koi bara surprise na ho. Hum baat kar rahe hain aaj ke latest US inflation report aur kal ke ECB ke rate faislay ki. Pichlay hafte ke jobs data ke baad, mein abhi bhi CPI release se pehle dollar ke bare mein bearish hun. Market rate cut ki size par tafreeq mein hai, aur koi clear consensus nahi hai. Fed, jo aglay hafte apni meeting mein dollar ko ziada hilne se rokna chahta hai, umeed kar raha hoga ke is hafte ka inflation data market uncertainty ko settle karne mein madadgar hoga.
Jabke US CPI Fed ke target ke qareeb aa raha hai, Powell pehle hi is baat ka ishara de chuke hain ke September 18 FOMC meeting mein rate cuts ka tasdeeq karenge. Ye CPI report is meeting se pehle aakhri bara data point hoga jo policymakers ko guide karega ke 50 basis point cut karna hai ya aam 25 basis point ke sath rehna hai.

EUR/USD currency pair filhal apni haal ki gains ko barhane mein struggle kar raha hai. Do din ke positive movement ke baad, yeh pair US session ke doran ek narrow trading band mein oscillate kar raha hai. Filhal, spot prices 1.1180 ke critical level ke thoda upar hain, aur yeh lagbhag unchanged hain jab traders US se aane wale crucial economic data ka intezar kar rahe hain. Aakhri update ke mutabiq, EUR/USD 1.1140 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai.

Aage dekhte hue, Euro bulls key resistance levels par nazar rakh rahe hain, jismein recent high 1.1200 aur July 2023 ka peak 1.1276 critical targets hain. Dusri taraf, psychological support level 1.1100 kisi bhi downward movement ke khilaf cushion provide karne ki umeed hai. Yeh resistance aur support levels ka balance pair ke near-term performance ke liye cautious optimism ko darshata hai.

EUR/USD ke Fundamentals:

Recent data Eurozone mein ongoing economic difficulties ko highlight karta hai, khaaskar iske do bade economies mein. Germany ki industrial production July mein 2.4% month-over-month ki kami ke sath gir gayi, jabke expected decline sirf 0.3% thi. France ne bhi downturn report kiya, jahan industrial output 0.5% se giri. Yeh disappointing figures bearish outlook ka sabab bani hain, jaise ke ek Reuters poll se saaf hai jismein 30 August se 5 September ke beech 85% economists ne expect kiya ke European Central Bank (ECB) agle meetings mein interest rate cuts implement karega.

In economic struggles ke chalte, kai ECB officials market speculation se khush nazar aate hain jo potential interest rate cuts ke gird ghoom raha hai. ECB Executive Board ke member Piero Cipollone ne ek recent interview mein chinta ka izhar kiya, yeh kehte hue ke "koi asal khatar hai ke [ECB] ka stance bohot restrictive ho sakta hai." Yeh sentiment Eurozone ki economic trajectory ke baare mein badhti hui unease ko darshata hai aur monetary policy mein badlav ki sambhavana ko highlight karta hai.

Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:

1.1150 level par gains maintain karne mein nakami ke bawajood, EUR/USD ka near-term outlook cautiously optimistic hai. Pair ne 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas-paas support establish kiya hai, jo 1.1157 par hai. Iske ilawa, longer-term indicators jaise 50-day aur 100-day EMAs, jo 1.1144 aur 1.1135 par hain, upward trend dikha rahe hain, jo future growth ka potential darshata hai. Iske saath, currency pair hourly chart par ek Rising Channel mein apni position banaye rakha hai, jo positive momentum ko indicate karta hai.

Technical indicators EUR/USD pair ke liye mixed picture pesh kar rahe hain. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.00 ke niche chala gaya hai, jabke yeh pehle 75.00 ke aas-paas overbought status par tha. Yeh kami momentum mein potential cooling off ko darshati hai, jo traders ko upcoming economic data aur market developments ko dekhte hue apne positions ko dobara assess karne par ma

EUR/USD mein Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.1237 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon, GBP/USD currency pair ke neeche jaane ke chances abhi bhi hain, halanki

EUR/USD ka technical outlook abhi bhi uncertain hai kyun ke yeh pair 1.1150 ke aas paas hover kar raha hai. Hal hi mein pair ne apne September ke lows se recovery ki hai aur 1.1000 ke mark ke qareeb aa gaya hai, magar buyers aur sellers dono struggle kar rahe hain. Guzishta haftay mein kai dafa price ne 1.1200 ke level ko break karne ki koshish ki, lekin consolidation trap ki wajah se yeh level abhi bhi hold ho raha hai. Phir bhi, 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) 1.1050 ke neeche support provide kar raha hai, jo ke price ke significant decline hone ke chances ko limit karta hai. EUR/USD ka 1.1200 ka level ek significant resistance point hai. Hal filhal mein price ne kai dafa is level ko break karne ki koshish ki hai, magar consolidation trap ki wajah se price abhi tak usay paar nahi kar saka. Agar market momentum bullish hota hai aur fundamentals ya technical indicators support karte hain, to price is level ko break kar sakti hai. Lekin yeh bhi zaroori hai ke price ke upar stability ho, agar 1.1200 break hota hai to sustain karna bhi mushkil ho sakta hai agar wahan bearish divergence ya weak buying pressure ho. MACD aur other indicators pe nazar rakhna zaroori hai. Agar momentum strong raha aur koi major economic news aayi to 1.1200 ka break possible hai, lekin agar momentum flat raha to price wapas neeche aa sakti hai. In short, 1.1200 ka break potential mein hai, lekin confirmation ke liye strong bullish signals ka intezar karna hoga.

EUR-USD mein abhi kafi interesting conditions dekhne ko mil rahi hain. Kal ke din ek kaafi significant bearish movement hui thi, aur technical analysis ke mutabiq EUR-USD ka condition interesting hai. H4 timeframe pe dekhne ko mila ke yeh bearish movement ne MA 50 ko break kiya, aur hatta ke MA 100 ko bhi tor diya. Ab yeh moment kaafi potential rakhta hai, kyunke MA 100 ka break hona ek aur significant bearish movement ke liye raasta bana sakta hai, jo ke MA 200 tak pohonch sakti hai. MA 200 abhi ek aakhri dynamic support level hai, jo current trend conditions ko define karega. Agar aaj EUR-USD ne apna bearish movement continue kiya, toh yeh kafi interesting hoga, khas tor pe jab MA 100 ke neeche significant bearish movement hoti hai. Is moment se further aur zyada bearish movement ka potential hai, jo trend reversal ka sabab ban sakta hai, aur is reversal ko MA 200 ke break hone se confirm kiya ja sakta hai. Lekin ek aur possibility yeh bhi hai ke price MA 200 tak pohonchne se pehle bullish ho jaye, jo yeh indicate karega ke EUR-USD abhi bhi apni bullish trend condition ko maintain kar raha hai. Meri bearish power ki prediction ke mutabiq abhi further bearish movement ka potential hai, is liye sell option pe focus karna interesting ho sakta hai. Halaanke kai martaba bearish movement ne MA 200 ko touch nahi kiya, lekin ab jo bearish movement ho rahi hai, uske trend reversal ko confirm karne ka potential hai. Is liye, mein MA 100 ke neeche ek significant bearish movement ka intezaar kar raha hoon, jo sell entry ka moment banega, aur bearish target MA 200 ke break ke aas paas ho sakta hai. Last week ki trading session mein EUR-USD bullish candlestick ke sath close hua tha. Bilkul waise hi jese August ke end mein market conditions thi, price dheere dheere neeche girta dikha, lekin buyers ki strong purchasing power ki wajah se last week mein price ne bullish trend ko follow kiya. Agar aap weekly lowest level ko monitor karein toh wo 1.1114 area mein hai, jahan tak abhi tak sellers ne koi tor-phor nahi ki. Mujhe shak hai ke price mein ek upward correction ka chance hai isse pehle ke yeh bearish side ki taraf dobara move kare.

T E C H N I C A L _ A N A L Y S I S E U R / U S D



Assalam-o-Alaikum dosto, aaj EUR/USD mein ek kafi interesting setup maujood hai jo day trading ke liye kaam aa sakta hai. Ab main EUR/USD market ki analysis taiyar kar raha hoon jisse umeed hai ke aap sab ko faida hoga. Bagair kisi dair ke, chaliye analysis shuru karte hain. Iss waqt EUR/USD market 1.1139 par trade kar rahi hai. USD index (DXY) 100.76 par hai jab yeh likha ja raha hai.






Chart par dekhne se yeh maloom hota hai ke ek buy signal form ho chuka hai. Technical analysis yeh dikhata hai ke uptrend aane wale trading sessions mein active rahega. Relative Strength Index (RSI) iss waqt upward trend ki taraf ja raha hai, jo ke technically ek positive signal hai. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) bhi iss waqt positive hai aur 0.0005 ke level ki taraf move kar raha hai. Moving averages bhi ek bullish trend indicate karte hain. EUR/USD iss waqt 20-day exponential moving average ke upar trade kar raha hai. Saath hi, 50-day exponential moving average bhi current EUR/USD price se neeche hai, jo ek bullish signal dikhata hai. Saare technical indicators EUR/USD ke liye ek bullish sentiment ko support karte hain, jisse further buying ki ummeed hai.

Resistance Levels:



Sabse qareebi resistance level EUR/USD ke liye 1.1147 hai. Agar EUR/USD 1.1147 ke pehle resistance level ko break karta hai, to woh agle 1.1174 ke resistance level ki taraf move karega jo doosra resistance level hai. Uske baad, critical resistance 1.1207 ke aas-paas hai jo ke teesra resistance level hai.
Support Levels:
Dusri taraf, sabse qareebi support level EUR/USD ke liye 1.1113 hai. Agar yeh level break hota hai, to EUR/USD neeche ki taraf 1.0343 ke level tak ja sakta hai jo doosra support level hai. Uske baad, critical support level 0.9543 ke aas-paas hai jo teesra support level hai.
Mujhe umeed hai ke EUR/USD ki price woh rise karegi jaisa ke main ne chart par mark kiya hai. Trading karte waqt in sab levels ko dehan mein rakhein, aur umeed hai ke yeh analysis aapki trading mein madad karegi.

EUR/USD currency pair filhal apni haal ki gains ko barhane mein struggle kar raha hai. Do din ke positive movement ke baad, yeh pair US session ke doran ek narrow trading band mein oscillate kar raha hai. Filhal, spot prices 1.1180 ke critical level ke thoda upar hain, aur yeh lagbhag unchanged hain jab traders US se aane wale crucial economic data ka intezar kar rahe hain. Aakhri update ke mutabiq, EUR/USD 1.1140 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai.

Aage dekhte hue, Euro bulls key resistance levels par nazar rakh rahe hain, jismein recent high 1.1200 aur July 2023 ka peak 1.1276 critical targets hain. Dusri taraf, psychological support level 1.1100 kisi bhi downward movement ke khilaf cushion provide karne ki umeed hai. Yeh resistance aur support levels ka balance pair ke near-term performance ke liye cautious optimism ko darshata hai.

EUR/USD ke Fundamentals:

Recent data Eurozone mein ongoing economic difficulties ko highlight karta hai, khaaskar iske do bade economies mein. Germany ki industrial production July mein 2.4% month-over-month ki kami ke sath gir gayi, jabke expected decline sirf 0.3% thi. France ne bhi downturn report kiya, jahan industrial output 0.5% se giri. Yeh disappointing figures bearish outlook ka sabab bani hain, jaise ke ek Reuters poll se saaf hai jismein 30 August se 5 September ke beech 85% economists ne expect kiya ke European Central Bank (ECB) agle meetings mein interest rate cuts implement karega.

In economic struggles ke chalte, kai ECB officials market speculation se khush nazar aate hain jo potential interest rate cuts ke gird ghoom raha hai. ECB Executive Board ke member Piero Cipollone ne ek recent interview mein chinta ka izhar kiya, yeh kehte hue ke "koi asal khatar hai ke [ECB] ka stance bohot restrictive ho sakta hai." Yeh sentiment Eurozone ki economic trajectory ke baare mein badhti hui unease ko darshata hai aur monetary policy mein badlav ki sambhavana ko highlight karta hai.

Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:

1.1150 level par gains maintain karne mein nakami ke bawajood, EUR/USD ka near-term outlook cautiously optimistic hai. Pair ne 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas-paas support establish kiya hai, jo 1.1157 par hai. Iske ilawa, longer-term indicators jaise 50-day aur 100-day EMAs, jo 1.1144 aur 1.1135 par hain, upward trend dikha rahe hain, jo future growth ka potential darshata hai. Iske saath, currency pair hourly chart par ek Rising Channel mein apni position banaye rakha hai, jo positive momentum ko indicate karta hai.

Technical indicators EUR/USD pair ke liye mixed picture pesh kar rahe hain. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.00 ke niche chala gaya hai, jabke yeh pehle 75.00 ke aas-paas overbought status par tha. Yeh kami momentum mein potential cooling off ko darshati hai, jo traders ko upcoming economic data aur market developments ko dekhte hue apne positions ko dobara assess karne par ma

EUR/USD currency pair abhi apni recent kamyabi ko barqarar rakhne mein mushkil ka samna kar rahi hai. Do din tak positive movement ke baad, yeh pair US session ke dauran ek narrow trading band mein oscillate kar rahi hai. Abhi ke liye spot prices 1.1180 ke critical level ke thoda upar hain aur lagbhag unchanged hain jabke dealers US ki ahem economic data ka intezar kar rahe hain. Aakhri update ke mutabiq, EUR/USD takriban 1.1140 ke aas paas trade kar rahi hai.
Aage dekhte hue, Euro ke bulls ka focus kuch ahem resistance levels par hai, jisme 1.1200 ka recent high aur July 2023 ka 1.1276 peak shamil hain. Doosri taraf, 1.1100 ka psychological support level neeche ki taraf movement ke khilaf ek barrier ke tor par kaam kar sakta hai. Yeh resistance aur support levels ka balance near-term mein pair ki performance ke liye ihtiyat pasand optimism ko zahir karta hai.

### EUR/USD ke Fundamentals
Haal hi mein aaye data ne Eurozone ki economic challenges ko ujagar kiya hai, khaaskar uski do bari economies mein. Germany ki industrial production mein July mein 2.4% ki significant girawat aayi, jo expected sirf 0.3% decline ke muqable mein thi. France ne bhi ek downtrend report kiya, jisme industrial output 0.5% se kam hui. Yeh disappointing numbers bearish outlook ko faroogh dete hain, jaise ke Reuters ke ek survey mein dikhaya gaya jo August 30 se September 5 tak conduct hua, jisme 85% economists ne anticipate kiya ke European Central Bank (ECB) aane wale meetings mein interest rate cuts apply karegi.

In economic challenges ko madde nazar rakhte hue, kai ECB officials market ke potential interest rate cuts ke hawale se comfortable nazar aa rahe hain. ECB Executive Board ke member Piero Cipollone ne ek interview mein is khauf ka izhar kiya ke "ECB ka stance bohat zyada restrictive ho sakta hai." Yeh jazba Eurozone ki economic situation par badhne wali fikr ko zahir karta hai aur monetary policy mein ek shift ke imkaan ko faroogh deta hai.

### Continual Time Frame Technical Outlook
1.1150 level ke upar earnings ko barqarar rakhne mein nakami ke bawajood, EUR/USD ka near-term outlook ihtiyaat ke saath optimistic lag raha hai. Pair ne 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke paas support establish kiya hai, jo ke lagbhag 1.1157 par hai. Iske ilawa, longer-term indicators jaise 50-day aur 100-day EMAs, jo 1.1144 aur 1.1135 par hain, upward trend dikhate hain, jo future growth ka imkaan zahir karta hai. Iske ilawa, currency pair hourly chart par Rising Channel mein apni position barqarar rakhti hai, jo positive momentum ko zahir karta hai.

Technical indicators EUR/USD ke liye ek mixed picture paint karte hain. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.00 mark ke neeche aa gaya hai, jabke is se pehle yeh overbought status par 75.00 ke kareeb tha. Yeh decline is baat ka ishara karta hai ke momentum thanda ho sakta hai, jo traders ko upcoming economic data aur market developments ke hawale se apni positions dobara assess karne par majboor kar sakta hai

EUR/USD currency pair is is waqt ek consolidation phase mein hai jabke yeh apni 50-day moving average se thoda upar chali gayi hai, jo ke pichlay haftay se momentum ko barqarar rakhti hai. Magar, pair naye buying interest ko dhundhnay mein muskil ka shikar hai aur key resistance level 1.1207 ke neechay rehti hai. Ab market participants intezar kar rahe hain Eurozone ke aham data ka, khaaskar inflation figures ka, jo ke European Central Bank (ECB) ki future policy par asar dal saktay hain. Agar data strong economic growth ya elevated inflation dikhata hai, toh ECB apni monetary policy ko maintain ya tight kar sakta hai, jo Euro ke liye faida mand ho ga. Iske baraks, agar data kamzor hota hai, toh ECB ko zyada accommodative approach lenay ka dabao par sakta hai, jo Euro ko kamzor kar dega aur EUR/USD ko neechay ki janib dhakel sakta hai.
Doosri taraf, U.S. Federal Reserve ne aggressive rate cuts ki umeedon ko thanda kar diya hai, aur hal hi ke bayanat yeh darshaate hain ke ab yeh zyada ehtiyaat se kaam le rahe hain. Pehlay optimism large-scale rate cuts ki taraf ishara kar raha tha, lekin ab Fed ka lehja zyada mehsoosiyat wala ho gaya hai, jo US Dollar ko thodi support faraham karta hai. Lekin, aanay wala Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data yeh narrative tabdeel kar sakta hai. Agar yeh data labor market ki slowdown ki nishaniyan dikhata hai, toh yeh Fed ko zyada substantial rate cuts par ghor karne par majboor kar sakta hai, jo Dollar ko kamzor karega aur EUR/USD ko upar ki janib dhakel sakta hai. Is liye, market in do aham events ka intezar kar rahi hai—Eurozone data aur NFP report—jo ke pair ke aglay move ka rukh tay kareinge.

Technically, EUR/USD 1.1207 resistance level ke neechay consolidate kar raha hai, jo ke bulls ke liye torhna mushkil sabit hua hai. H4 chart dikhata hai ke is level ke qareeb multiple tops nazar aati hain, jo ke significant resistance aur buying momentum ke thakne ka ishara hain. Daily chart bhi is cheez ko mirror karta hai, kyunke pair 1.1207 ke upar break sustain karne mein nakam raha hai. Yeh consolidation market ki uncertainty ko zahir karti hai, jisme buyers aur sellers donon intezar kar rahe hain ke koi strong economic cues milay. Agar bulls 1.1207 ke upar price ko dhakel dete hain, toh yeh ek potential bullish breakout ka signal hoga, jo ke pair ko 1.1250 aur is se aagay ki janib lay ja sakta hai.

Neechay ki taraf, sellers ka dhyan 1.1100 ke neechay hai, khaaskar 34-period exponential moving average (EMA) aur 50-day simple moving average (SMA) par. Agar yeh levels torh diye jatay hain, toh yeh momentum shift ka ishara hoga, jo ke selling pressure mein izafa karega. 1.1100 ke neechay break pair ko 1.1060 tak le ja sakta hai, khaaskar agar aanay wala data US Dollar ke haq mein hota hai. Technical indicators, jisme Relative Strength Index (RSI) aur moving averages shaamil hain, yeh tay kareinge ke pair consolidation mein rehta hai ya koi nayi trend mein dakhil hota hai. Overall, 1.1207 level bulls ke liye ek key resistance bana hua hai, jabke 1.1100 ke neechay ka drop ek bearish trend ko confirm kar sakta hai. Traders ko market mein kisi bhi data-driven shifts se mutaliq hoshiyaar rehna zaroori hai.

Bazaar Fed ke interest rates mein tabdeeli ki taraf bechain hai, aur saath hi kal aane wale Consumer Price Index (CPI) report par bhi nazar hai. Is report ke baad mahol mein khaas harkat dekhne ko mil sakti hai. EUR/USD tab tak purani halat mein nahi rahe ga jab tak Fed ka faisla nahi aata. Aap shayad European Central Bank (ECB) ke meeting ka bhi zikar kar rahe hain, jo Thursday ko hai, jo is maamle mein ahmiyat rakhti hai. Maine forecast calendar ko dekha aur mujhe dekhar hairani hui ke 0.6 basis points ka rate reduction plan kiya gaya hai, jo rate ko 4.25% se 3.64% tak le aayega. Agar yeh forecast theek raha, toh EUR/USD mein kam zyada girawat dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Lekin, agar ECB sirf 0.5 ya 0.2 points ka reduction karta hai, toh EUR/USD ko mazid taqat mil sakti hai. Aise mein ECB ka rate cut dollar ko mazid majboot karne mein madadgar ho sakta hai aur EUR/USD ko kamzor kar sakta hai.
Pichle Jumme ko EUR/USD pair ne khaas taur par behtareen recovery dikhai, jo ke kuch 4 hafton ke baad sab se neechi levels se upar aya. Yeh positive momentum pair ko haftay ke trading range ke upar end tak le gaya, jo lagbhag 1.1090 ke aas-paas tha. Is upar chadhai ko kamzor US dollar ne support diya, jo ke weaker-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) report ki wajah se tha. PPI data ne Federal Reserve ke agle haftay zyada aggressive rate cut ki umeed ko mazid barhadiya. Is positive risk sentiment ke sath, US dollar ne girawat dikhai aur is ka natija yeh hua ke EUR/USD pair ki qeemat mein izafa hua. Iske ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) ka apne current interest rate stance ko barqarar rakhna euro ko support diya, jo currency pair ke liye buying interest ko mazid barhata hai

Technical perspective se, EUR/USD pair ab ek downward channel ke upper boundary ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jo ke pichle teen hafton se chal raha hai. Agar yeh channel se mazid behtar break hota hai, toh yeh recent corrective decline ke khatam hone ki nishani ban sakti hai aur short term mein mazid upward movement ki taraf rukh de sakti hai