eur/usd

Is hafte ke economic calendar ke shuruat mein aram ne dollar ko takreeban tamam badi currencies ke khilaf kuch support dila diya, siwaye yen ke, jisne EUR/USD par niche ka dabao dala. Ye Friday ke girawat ke baad hua jab latest US employment data ne Fed ke employment mein kamzori ke khauf ko tasdeeq kiya.
Fed ke chairman ne pehle hi August mein yeh confirm kar diya tha ke September se interest rates mein kami aayegi, is liye jobs report itni kamzor nahi thi ke investors ko 50 basis point cut ka andaza ho. Is wajah se dollar mein halki recovery hui. Friday ki soft jobs report ne rate markets mein pehle to halchal machai, lekin phir sentiment aur sakke par shift ho gaya, aur aglay FOMC meeting ke liye 25 basis point cut ki umeed barh gayi.

Lekin ab umeedain barh rahi hain ke is saal ke baad aur aglay saal ke shuruat mein aur zyada aggressive rate cuts ho sakte hain, utsalar ek Fed official ne “frontloading” ko kam karne ka mashwara diya hai. Lekin US ke kamzor data, girti hui oil prices, aur dovish Fed turn ke bawajood, EUR/USD ka forecast abhi bhi thora bullish hai jab tak ke is hafte ke aane wale macro events mein koi bara surprise na ho. Hum baat kar rahe hain aaj ke latest US inflation report aur kal ke ECB ke rate faislay ki. Pichlay hafte ke jobs data ke baad, mein abhi bhi CPI release se pehle dollar ke bare mein bearish hun. Market rate cut ki size par tafreeq mein hai, aur koi clear consensus nahi hai. Fed, jo aglay hafte apni meeting mein dollar ko ziyata hilne se rokna chahta hai, umeed kar raha hoga ke is hafte ka inflation data market uncertainty ko settle karne mein madadgar hoga.

Jabke US CPI Fed ke target ke qareeb aa raha hai, Powell pehle hi is baat ka ishara de chuke hain ke September 18 FOMC meeting mein rate cuts ka tasdeeq karenge. Ye CPI report is meeting se pehle aakhri bara data point hoga jo policymakers ko guide karega ke 50 basis point cut karna hai ya aam 25

EUR/USD
EUR/USD Ki Market Analysis
1. Overview of EUR/USD Pair:

EUR/USD duniya ka sab se zyada trade hone wala currency pair hai. Yeh Euro aur US Dollar ki exchange rate ko represent karta hai. Is pair ki movement ko European aur American economies ke factors bohat ziyada influence karte hain, jaisay ke interest rates, economic data, aur political developments.

2. Current Market Trend:

Filhaal EUR/USD ne thoda bearish trend show kiya hai, kyun ke US Dollar ne strength gain ki hai due to higher interest rate expectations by the Federal Reserve. Dusri taraf, European Central Bank (ECB) ki side se bhi kuch hawkish statements aaye hain, lekin US ki economic strength ne Dollar ko zyada support kiya hai. Agar hum technical analysis ki baat karein, to EUR/USD ka major support level 1.0600 ke aas paas hai, jab ke resistance level 1.0800 se 1.0850 ke beech dekha ja sakta hai.

3. Fundamental Factors:

Fundamentals bhi EUR/USD ki movement mein major role play karte hain. US ki strong economic data, jaisay ki GDP growth aur employment reports, Dollar ki demand ko barhati hain. Is waqt market ki nazar Federal Reserve ke interest rate decisions par hai. Agar Fed interest rates ko high rakhne ka signal deta hai, to Dollar aur zyada strong ho sakta hai. Dusri taraf, Eurozone mein inflation ka issue abhi bhi serious hai, jiski wajah se ECB bhi interest rates mein adjustments kar raha hai.

4. Technical Analysis:

Technical analysis se dekha jaye to EUR/USD ka moving averages aur RSI indicators bearish territory mein hain, jo ke downtrend ki taraf indicate kar rahe hain. 50-day moving average ne 200-day moving average ko neechay se cross kiya hai, jisse downside momentum strong nazar aata hai. Is waqt, agar price 1.0600 ke support ko break karti hai, to EUR/USD mein aur bhi downside dekhne ko mil sakti hai.

5. Upcoming Economic Events:

Agay ane wale economic events bhi EUR/USD ki volatility ko influence karenge. ECB ki monetary policy statements aur US ki upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report ko closely watch karna chahiye. In reports ke outcomes EUR/USD ki direction ko affect kar sakte hain. Agar Eurozone ki taraf se koi positive surprise aata hai, to Euro ko kuch support mil sakta hai.

6. Trading Strategy:

Trading strategy ki baat ki jaye to current market sentiment ko dekhte hue, short positions zyada suitable lagti hain jab tak market mein koi bullish reversal sign nahi aata. Traders ko support aur resistance levels ko closely monitor karna chahiye aur risk management ko hamesha priority deni chahiye.

Yeh thi EUR/USD ki current market analysis. Trading mein hamesha market ke latest developments ko follow karein aur apne risk ko manage karein.

EUR/USD pair ne hafta ke aakhir mein apni upar ki lehr mein rukawat dekhi, aur Wednesday ko pohanchay gaye pehle se high ko nahi touch kar paya. Halankeh recent sell-off ke bawajood US dollar (USD) ke, spot price 1.1125 level se upar hai. Euro ko support milne ka ek aham wajah US labor market ka kamzor hona hai. Wednesday ko release hui data se pata chala ke March mein US employment growth kafi kam thi jo pehle estimate se bahut kam thi. Is ke ilawa, unemployed logon ki bharat se labor market ke thanda hone ka imkaan hai, jo economic slowdown ki chinta ko barhata hai. Is wajah se Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein interest rate cut ka imkaan barh gaya hai, jo Euro ko madad de raha hai. Jabke kamzor US dollar EUR/USD ko kuch madad de raha hai, mixed Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data bullish sentiment ko kuch had tak dheela kar raha hai. Preliminary Eurozone PMI expectations se niche aaya, lekin 50 level se upar raha, jo expansion ko darshata hai. Lekin, Germany jo Eurozone ka sabse bara economy hai, dusre maheenay ke liye contraction ka shikaar raha. Eurozone mein slow wage growth bhi EUR/USD pair ke barhne ki sambhavnayein kam kar sakta hai. ECB ka July policy meeting bhi is ka izhaar karta hai. Recent data se ye bhi samne aaya hai ke US job growth March tak kafi kamzor thi. US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims ke barhne se labor market ke thanda hone ka andaza lagaya ja raha hai. US Manufacturing PMI ke girne se bhi economic slowdown ke imkaan barh gaye hain. Ye factors mil kar market mein speculation barhati hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) shayad September se rate-cutting cycle shuru kar de. Jabke USD ne apne saal ke low se kuch recovery dekhi hai, ye recovery broader economic concerns se dhaki hui hai, jo EUR/USD pair ko mixed Eurozone PMI data ke bawajood support deti hai. ECB ke July ki policy meeting minutes ke mutabiq, September ka meeting monetary policy restriction ko dobara assess karne ka sahi waqt maana ja raha hai. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks ne 2% inflation target ko achieve karne par confidence zahir kiya aur economic uncertainties ko bhi maangliya. Unhone September mein ek aur interest rate cut ke liye tayyari ka bhi izhaar kiya. Is liye, agar EUR/USD mein koi upar ka movement hota hai, toh wo resistance ka samna kar sakta hai, lekin Greenback ke bearish sentiment Euro ko madad de sakta hai.

EUR/USD pair ne hafta ke aakhir mein apni upar ki lehr mein rukawat dekhi, aur Wednesday ko pohanchay gaye pehle se high ko nahi touch kar paya. Halankeh recent sell-off ke bawajood US dollar (USD) ke, spot price 1.1125 level se upar hai. Euro ko support milne ka ek aham wajah US labor market ka kamzor hona hai. Wednesday ko release hui data se pata chala ke March mein US employment growth kafi kam thi jo pehle estimate se bahut kam thi. Is ke ilawa, unemployed logon ki bharat se labor market ke thanda hone ka imkaan hai, jo economic slowdown ki chinta ko barhata hai. Is wajah se Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein interest rate cut ka imkaan barh gaya hai, jo Euro ko madad de raha hai. Jabke kamzor US dollar EUR/USD ko kuch madad de raha hai, mixed Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data bullish sentiment ko kuch had tak dheela kar raha hai. Preliminary Eurozone PMI expectations se niche aaya, lekin 50 level se upar raha, jo expansion ko darshata hai. Lekin, Germany jo Eurozone ka sabse bara economy hai, dusre maheenay ke liye contraction ka shikaar raha. Eurozone mein slow wage growth bhi EUR/USD pair ke barhne ki sambhavnayein kam kar sakta hai. ECB ka July policy meeting bhi is ka izhaar karta hai. Recent data se ye bhi samne aaya hai ke US job growth March tak kafi kamzor thi. US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims ke barhne se labor market ke

h donon taraf par chalti hui. Yeh fikr paida ho rahi hai ke recent kehtam huay compression jaldi khatam hoga, shayad kisi ek taraf ek achanak zor daar jump ke sath.
Kal ka din khas tha lekin koi bara surprise nahi tha, aur market ka overall manzar waisa hi raha. Europe ki currency ka halka uptrend ek martaba phir se shak ke neechay aa gaya hai, jis ka natija yeh hai ke Euro ne ground kho diya, Thursday ke tamaam gains ko mita diya, aur Friday ka aaghaaz US currency ko thoda behtar position mein paaya.

Halankeh Federal Reserve (Fed) aur European Central Bank (ECB) ke agle meetings ke darmiyan kuch faasla hai, interest rates mein katauti ke iradon par shart lagayi ja rahi hai, jo ke ab bhi interest rates ko apni taraf kheench rahi hain aur exchange rate ke rukh ko asar andaz kar rahi hain.

Halankeh Fed ke aakhri cut ke baad interest rate ka farq 50 basis points tak kam ho gaya, lekin spread ab bhi US currency ke haqq mein hai, aur Europe ki economy ke hawale se pareshaniyan bhi us waqt Europe ki currency ke liye rukawat hain ke woh 1.14 - 1.15 ke level tak zyada upar ja sake. Meri nazar mein, yeh woh uncha prices hain jo Europe ki currency ko 2024 ke aakhir tak pohanch sakti hain.

Aaj ka program khas tor par announcement-heavy hai jisme eurozone ke kuch countries ke inflation data shamil hain, jabke US ka personal consumption expenditure index bhi numaya hai, jo Fed ka pasandeeda scale hai kyun ke yeh inflation data ka pehla ishara hota hai.

Agar yeh data surprise karay, to yeh aur zyada rate cuts ke hawale se sharton ko taazah kar sakta hai, jo zaroori taur par rate ko farq daal sakta hai aur shayad isay aakhri chand dino ke tight range se break karne mein madad milay.

Market ka rawayya kisi had tak meri soch ki tasdeeq kar raha hai, jaise ke main pehle bhi US currency khareedne ke rujhan ka izhaar kar chuka hoon kisi bhi spike par, lekin ab tak sahi entry point nahi mil raha.

Main apni yeh soch par barqarar hoon, filhal sakoon se rahoon ga aur US dollar khareedne ka naya mouqa dhoondta rahoon ga jab ko

Aaj dopahar maine EURUSD market ki situation dekhi aur H4 time frame ke chart ko use karke analysis ki koshish ki. Yeh kaafi dilchaspi ka sabab tha kyun ke maine dekha ke raat ke market trend mein izafa hone ka mauqa phir se nazar aa raha hai. Yeh ek reversal signal hai jahan guzishta kuch dino mein market mein price movement asal mein sellers ke qabze mein thi jo ke neeche le jane ki koshish kar rahe thay, lekin chart par dekha ja sakta hai ke bearish koshish abhi bhi 1.1004 level se breakout karne mein nakaam rahi hai, jo is haftay support ke taur par istemal ho sakti hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke agar seller support area ko naheen tod pate, toh trend mein izafa hota rehne ke imkaanat hain Isliye, main ek puri trading plan banaonga taake yeh andaza laga sakuun ke kab price upar ki taraf harakat karna shuru karegi aur agla maqsad kya hoga H4 time frame ke mutabiq. Iske ilaawa, main stochastic oscillator indicator aur support resistance boundary line ki madad bhi istemal kar raha hoon. H4 time frame ke chart par EURUSD ki price movement ne pehle ke bearish correction candlestick ki shape se reversal signal dikhaya hai. Hum daily timeframe mein monitor kar sakte hain ke guzishta hafte ke trading session mein buyers bullish trend ko continue na kar sake kyun ke sellers ke pressure ke waja se market correction ke liye neeche ki taraf chal gayi Is haftay ki bearish koshish asal mein abhi bhi jari hai, lekin guzishta Thursday ko achi buying interest ne candlestick ki position ko behtar banaya aur market ke liye bullish rally ka rasta khola, bilkul us trend ki tarah jo August ke aakhir mein tha. Phir stochastics ke saath mazeed analysis se yeh maloom hota hai ke signal line 80 zone tak barh gayi hai, jo market ke phir se izafa hone ke imkaanaat ka tasavvur deta hai. Buyers ke paas aaj bhi EURUSD ki prices ko barhane ke liye momentum mil sakta hai Maujooda market movement abhi bhi 1.1078 ke aas paas static hai. Main khud aaj dopahar se mazeed izafa ke signal ka intezaar kar raha hoon kyun ke abhi tak market transactions mein koi volatility nahi hui hai. Guzishta mahine se benchmark ke mutabiq, wahan par ek mustahkam izafa nazar aa raha hai jo neeche ki taraf corrections ke saath mix hai. Chahe market zyada bullish hi kyon na ho, main intezaar karunga jab tak buyers 1.1096 resistance zone ko breakout kar ke buy signal ko valid na bana le. Aaj ke market movement ka imkaan beech mein hi rahega kyun ke is Friday USD par koi high impact news nahi hai

Euro ne Thursday ki subah trading mein thodi si recovery dekhi, lekin aik aham sawal yeh hai ke kya yeh 1.12 ke aham level se upar jaa sakta hai. Market is waqt is resistance ka samna kar raha hai aur mazeed barhawa k liye ghair yakeeni surat-e-haal hai. Agar Euro is se upar break kar jaye, to yeh 1.1250 ka level target kar sakta hai, jo aik lambi muddat ke liye buy-and-hold ka moqa faraham kar sakta hai.
Tareekhi tor par, jab bhi market kisi bade round number ya psychologically important level ko hit karta hai, to aksar aik taiz reaction aata hai. Euro in aham numbers ke darmiyan move kar raha hai aur aksar bullish bias ke sath fluctuate kar raha hai. Halanki, aik eventual breakout ka imkaan hai, magar filhal ke market conditions ke madde nazar, yeh foran nahi ho sakta.

Agar bara tasweer dekhein, to hum is currency pair ke liye aik aham resistance zone ke qareeb hain. Yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke European Central Bank (ECB) aur Federal Reserve dono ne haali mein interest rates cut kiye hain, lekin Fed ne zyada dramatic cut diya, jo 50 basis points ka tha. Aise action ko panic ka signal samjha ja sakta hai, jo Euro par negative asar daal sakta hai agar global concerns barh jati hain. Iske bawajood, overall sentiment abhi bhi dips per buying ko support karta hai, khaaskar jab bade levels par ho, agar global risk appetite barqarar rahti hai.

Mukhtasir mein, jabke Euro 1.12 ke qareeb resistance ka samna kar raha hai, iska upward trajectory abhi bhi intact hai aur market aakhir kar push kar sakta hai. Traders ko pullback ke dauran buying opportunities dekhni chahiye aur global market sentiment par nazar rakhni chahiye, jo Euro ki agle move ka taayun kar sakta hai.

dopahar maine EURUSD market ki situation dekhi aur H4 time frame ke chart ko use karke analysis ki koshish ki. Yeh kaafi dilchaspi ka sabab tha kyun ke maine dekha ke raat ke market trend mein izafa hone ka mauqa phir se nazar aa raha hai. Yeh ek reversal signal hai jahan guzishta kuch dino mein market mein price movement asal mein sellers ke qabze mein thi jo ke neeche le jane ki koshish kar rahe thay, lekin chart par dekha ja sakta hai ke bearish koshish abhi bhi 1.1004 level se breakout karne mein nakaam rahi hai, jo is haftay support ke taur par istemal ho sakti hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke agar seller support area ko naheen tod pate, toh trend mein izafa hota rehne ke imkaanat hain Isliye, main ek puri trading plan banaonga taake yeh andaza laga sakuun ke kab price upar ki taraf harakat karna shuru karegi aur agla maqsad kya hoga H4 time frame ke mutabiq. Iske ilaawa, main stochastic oscillator indicator aur support resistance boundary line ki madad bhi istemal kar raha hoon. H4 time frame ke chart par EURUSD ki price movement ne pehle ke bearish correction candlestick ki shape se reversal signal dikhaya hai. Hum daily timeframe mein monitor kar sakte hain ke guzishta hafte ke trading session mein buyers bullish trend ko continue na kar sake kyun ke sellers ke pressure ke waja se market correction ke liye neeche ki taraf chal gayi Is haftay ki bearish koshish asal mein abhi bhi jari hai, lekin guzishta Thursday ko achi buying interest ne candlestick ki position ko behtar banaya aur market ke liye bullish rally ka rasta khola, bilkul us trend ki tarah jo August ke aakhir mein tha. Phir stochastics ke saath mazeed analysis se yeh maloom hota hai ke signal line 80 zone tak barh gayi hai, jo market ke phir se izafa hone ke imkaanaat ka tasavvur deta hai. Buyers ke paas aaj bhi EURUSD ki prices ko barhane ke liye momentum mil sakta hai Maujooda market movement abhi bhi 1.1078 ke aas paas static hai. Main khud aaj dopahar se mazeed izafa ke signal ka intezaar kar raha hoon kyun ke abhi tak market transactions mein koi volatility nahi hui hai. Guzishta mahine se benchmark ke mutabiq, wahan par ek mustahkam izafa nazar aa raha hai jo neeche ki taraf corrections ke saath mix hai. Chahe market zyada bullish hi kyon na ho, main intezaar karunga jab tak buyers 1.1096 resistance zone ko breakout kar ke buy signal ko valid na bana le. Aaj ke market movement ka imkaan beech mein hi rahega kyun ke is Friday USD par koi high impa

EUR/USD Currency Pair Ka Analysis: Bearish Trend Mein
EUR/USD currency pair, jo 1.11168 par trading kar raha hai, bearish trend ka experience kar raha hai
Yeh trend gradual decline ko darshata hai, jo broader market sentiments ko influence karta hai
Economic aur geopolitical factors ke wajah se yeh trend hai
*Bearish Trend Ka Analysis*
EUR/USD pair mein bearish trend ECB aur Fed ke divergent monetary policies, economic data releases, aur geopolitical uncertainties ke wajah se hai
ECB cautious approach apnai hai, jabki Fed interest rates raise kar raha hai
Yeh divergence dollar ko strong karta hai, euro par downward pressure dalta hai
Eurozone ka economic data mixed hai, inflation concern hai
ECB ki cautious stance rate hikes par euro ko support nahi de rahi hai
US economy labor market mein strong hai, dollar ko bolster karta hai
*Big Movement Ke Potential Trigger
Bearish trend ke bawajud, kuch potential triggers hain jo significant movement ko lead kar sakte hain
1. *ECB Policy Changes*: ECB ki hawkish stance adoption inflationary pressures ke response mein euro ko boost kar sakti hai
1. *US Economic Data*: US ka



economic data, non-farm payrolls, inflation reports, aur GDP figures, dollar ki strength ko impact kar sakta hai
1. *Geopolitical Events* Russia-Ukraine conflict jaisi geopolitical tensions currency markets mein volatility create kar sakti hain
*Market Sentiment*: Mark sentiment global economy mein unexpected developments ke wajah se shift ho sakta hai
Yeh currency markets mein sudden rebalancing ko lead kar sakta hai
EUR/USD pair mein significant movement ko drive kar sakta hai

EURUSD market ki situation dekhi aur H4 time frame ke chart ko use karke analysis ki koshish ki. Yeh kaafi dilchaspi ka sabab tha kyun ke maine dekha ke raat ke market trend mein izafa hone ka mauqa phir se nazar aa raha hai. Yeh ek reversal signal hai jahan guzishta kuch dino mein market mein price movement asal mein sellers ke qabze mein thi jo ke neeche le jane ki koshish kar rahe thay, lekin chart par dekha ja sakta hai ke bearish koshish abhi bhi 1.1004 level se breakout karne mein nakaam rahi hai, jo is haftay support ke taur par istemal ho sakti hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke agar seller support area ko naheen tod pate, toh trend mein izafa hota rehne ke imkaanat hain Isliye, main ek puri trading plan banaonga taake yeh andaza laga sakuun ke kab price upar ki taraf harakat karna shuru karegi aur agla maqsad kya hoga H4 time frame ke mutabiq. Iske ilaawa, main stochastic oscillator indicator aur support resistance boundary line ki madad bhi istemal kar raha hoon. H4 time frame ke chart par EURUSD ki price movement ne pehle ke bearish correction candlestick ki shape se reversal signal dikhaya hai. Hum daily timeframe mein monitor kar sakte hain ke guzishta hafte ke trading session mein buyers bullish trend ko continue na kar sake kyun ke sellers ke pressure ke waja se market correction ke liye neeche ki taraf chal gayi Is haftay ki bearish koshish asal mein abhi bhi jari hai, lekin guzishta Thursday ko achi buying interest ne candlestick ki position ko behtar banaya aur market ke liye bullish rally ka rasta khola, bilkul us trend ki tarah jo August ke aakhir mein tha. Phir stochastics ke saath mazeed analysis se yeh maloom hota hai ke signal line 80 zone tak barh gayi hai, jo market ke phir se izafa hone ke imkaanaat ka tasavvur deta hai. Buyers ke paas aaj bhi EURUSD ki prices ko barhane ke liye momentum mil sakta hai Maujooda market movement abhi bhi 1.1078 ke aas paas static hai.



Main khud aaj dopahar se mazeed izafa ke signal ka intezaar kar raha hoon kyun ke abhi tak market transactions mein koi volatility nahi hui hai. Guzishta mahine se benchmark ke mutabiq, wahan par ek mustahkam izafa nazar aa raha hai jo neeche ki taraf corrections ke saath mix hai. Chahe market zyada bullish hi kyon na ho, main intezaar karunga jab tak buyers 1.1096 resistance zone ko breakout kar ke buy signal ko valid na bana le. Aaj ke market movement ka imkaan beech mein hi rahega kyun ke is Friday USD par koi hig

Euro Thursday ko apne buland tareen satah par pohch gaya, jab ke US dollar ki wide-scale sell-off ne euro ko support diya. Positive US economic data ne US economy ke slow down kay khauf ko kam kar diya, lekin kuch risks ab bhi mojood hain. US economy ne filhal recession se bach liya hai, lekin key activity data ab bhi slowdown ke isharaat de raha hai. Federal Reserve ke recent faislay ne, jisme unhon ne interest rates ko 50 basis points se cut kiya, global markets mein kuch khauf paida kiya hai. Baaz investors recession ke baray mein fears ka izhar kar rahe hain.Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ne wazahat ki ke ye rate cut ek proactive measure hai taake US labor market ko support mil sake, na ke recession ke signs ko respond karne ka ikdam. Positive data jisme US durable goods orders aur weekly jobless claims shamil hain, ne Fed ke stance ko aur mazid barhawa diya aur economy ke liye ek soft landing ka tasavvur mazid mazboot kiya. Friday ka Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data bohot important hoga taake Fed ke recent rate cuts ka asar dekh sake.August mein US durable goods orders 0.0% rahe month-over-month, jo ke expectations ke 2.6% contraction se kaafi behtar hai. Iske ilawa, initial jobless claims 218,000 tak gir gaye September 20 ko khatam hone wale haftay mein, jo ke estimates ke 225,000 se behtar hain aur peechlay haftay ke revised 222,000 se bhi kam hain.Thursday ke bullish rally ke bawajood, euro ab tak 1.1200 level se neeche hi rahega. Buyers actively koshish kar rahe hain ke EUR/USD ko upper limit tak push kar sakein, lekin sellers ke pass momentum ke kami se downside move ke options mehdoood ho rahe hain. Pair ab tak 50-day EMA ke upar 1.1040 par acha khaasa stable hai, aur price action ke liye ab bhi kafi room hai taake wo 1.1200 se upar ja sake.H4 timeframe par dekha jaye to hume nazar aata hai ke takreeban 75% girawat jo hum Wednesday ko dekh rahe thay, wo Thursday ko euro/dollar par recover ho gayi. Aaj Friday hai, aur mujhe umeed hai ke upward movement jari rahegi aur pichla local maximum update hoga. H4 chart par southern channel pehle broken tha, aur ek ascending channel form ho gaya hai. Technically, lower border se rebound ke baad ek nai wave of growth shuru hui, aur buyers ka goal upper border tak pohchna hoga, jo takreeban 1.1220 ke level par intersect karega.Hum wahan ki taraf confident pace ke sath barh rahe hain, aur aap euro/dollar ko current levels 1.1176 se buy kar sakte hain. Mera bhi purchase open hai, lekin abhi tak slight drawdown ka samna hai. Agar pair Asia mein aur zyada north extend nahi hota, to hum Europe mein growth ko jari rakhein ge, bilkul kal ke example ke mutabiq.

EUR/USD pair ne hafta ke aakhir mein apni upar ki lehr mein rukawat dekhi, aur Wednesday ko pohanchay gaye pehle se high ko nahi touch kar paya. Halankeh recent sell-off ke bawajood US dollar (USD) ke, spot price 1.1125 level se upar hai. Euro ko support milne ka ek aham wajah US labor market ka kamzor hona hai. Wednesday ko release hui data se pata chala ke March mein US employment growth kafi kam thi jo pehle estimate se bahut kam thi. Is ke ilawa, unemployed logon ki bharat se labor market ke thanda hone ka imkaan hai, jo economic slowdown ki chinta ko barhata hai. Is wajah se Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein interest rate cut ka imkaan barh gaya hai, jo Euro ko madad de raha hai. Jabke kamzor US dollar EUR/USD ko kuch madad de raha hai, mixed Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data bullish sentiment ko kuch had tak dheela kar raha hai. Preliminary Eurozone PMI expectations se niche aaya, lekin 50 level se upar raha, jo expansion ko darshata hai. Lekin, Germany jo Eurozone ka sabse bara economy hai, dusre maheenay ke liye contraction ka shikaar raha. Eurozone mein slow wage growth bhi EUR/USD pair ke barhne ki sambhavnayein kam kar sakta hai. ECB ka July policy meeting bhi is ka izhaar karta hai. Recent data se ye bhi samne aaya hai ke US job growth March tak kafi kamzor thi. US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims ke barhne se labor market ke thanda hone ka andaza lagaya ja raha hai. US Manufacturing PMI ke girne se bhi economic slowdown ke imkaan barh gaye hain. Ye factors mil kar market mein speculation barhati hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) shayad September se rate-cutting cycle shuru kar de. Jabke USD ne apne saal ke low se kuch recovery dekhi hai, ye recovery broader economic concerns se dhaki hui hai, jo EUR/USD pair ko mixed Eurozone PMI data ke bawajood support deti hai. ECB ke July ki policy meeting minutes ke mutabiq, September ka meeting monetary policy restriction ko dobara assess karne ka sahi waqt maana ja raha hai. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks ne 2% inflation target ko achieve karne par confidence zahir kiya aur economic uncertainties ko bhi maangliya. Unhone September mein ek aur interest rate cut ke liye tayyari ka bhi izhaar kiya. Is liye, agar EUR/USD mein koi upar ka movement hota hai, toh wo resistance ka samna kar sakta hai, lekin Greenback ke bearish sentiment Euro ko madad de sakta hai.

USD/JPY ka haal hi ka analysis yeh dikhata hai ke price 144.40 tak gir gaya hai, lekin mujhe lagta hai ke yeh 146.50 se neeche nahi jaayega. US dollar index ki tezi geopolitical tensions ki wajah se hai. Mujhe umeed hai ke USD/JPY is supply zone 145.50 ke paar phir se recover karega.
Bollinger Bands aur resistance levels par meri nazar hai: 149.251, 150.855, 153.348, aur 153.720. Pehle ki bearish trend line ko bulls ne paar kar diya hai, jo buying volume ke barhne ki nishani hai. Lekin agar price 142.901 tak girta hai, to bearish trend ki sambhavna bhi hai. 30-minute chart dikhata hai ke oscillator oversold conditions par hai, aur histogram mein uptrend shuru ho raha hai. Mujhe lagta hai ke price green zone ke through move kar sakta hai aur purani sideways range mein wapas aa sakta hai, jahan support 153.11. 1-hour chart par, aaj ka trading session is baat se shuru hua ke price ne pichle do dinon ke highest level ko tod diya, aur ab do mukhtalif price channels ke andar move kar raha hai. Pehla channel, jo blue rang mein dikhaya gaya hai, pichle do trading dinon ka sideways trend reflect karta hai. Doosra channel, jo red rang mein hai, kal ke trading session ke dauran dekhay gayi upward trend ko represent karta hai.
Filhal, price blue channel ke upar break kar gaya hai aur ab wapas aa kar isko retest kar raha hai. Agar price blue channel line ko touch karta hai, to yeh tawaqqo hai ke yeh dobara upward bounce karega, aur apni rise ko resistance level 1.1211 tak continue karega. Agar bearish scenario dekha jaye, to agar price dobara blue channel ke andar aata hai, to yeh aur bhi neeche gir sakta hai, aur weekly pivot level 1.1139 tak pochne ke baad shayad wahan se dobara upar rebound karega. Economic front par, Eurozone mein recent data ne kuch khatarnaak trends ko highlight kiya hai. Business activity September mein unexpected contraction ki taraf gayi, jo services aur manufacturing sectors mein bigharte hue halat ko dikhata hai. S&P Global ke mutabiq, region ka Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) August ke 51.0 se gir kar 48.9 par aa gaya, jo ke pehli dafa February ke baad contraction dikhata hai. Is decline ka zyada asar weak demand aur Germany aur France jaise key economies mein economic challenges ki wajah se tha. 50-point mark ke neeche girna economic activity ki slowdown ko dikhata hai, jo future growth ke liye concerns badha raha hai, aur European Central Bank (ECB) ke potential policy easing par speculation ko barhawa de raha hai. Services PMI bhi sharp fall ka shikar hua, jo August ke 52.9 se September mein gir kar 50.5 ho gaya, jabke manufacturing PMI mazeed 44.8 par aa gaya, jo ke pehle 45.8 tha. Germany, jo ke region ki sabse bari economy hai, khaas challenges face kar raha hai, jahan economy second quarter mein 0.1% se contract hui, aur third quarter mein bhi further decline ke asar hain. Yeh economic trends Eurozone ke liye badhne wali uncertainty ko dikhate hain, jo market movements ko bhi influence kar sakti hain

mein Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.1237 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon, GBP/USD currency pair ke neeche jaane ke chances abhi bhi hain, halankiClick

Chaliye baat karte hain EUR/USD currency pair ki price action aur is se kya analysis milta hai. EUR/USD ke liye aapka target lagbhag 1.1374 ke aas-paas bilkul mumkin lagta hai, khaaskar yeh dekhte hue ke aise moves aksar broader fundamentals par depend karte hain. Yeh samajhna zaroori hai ke aane wale events kya prices ko itna upar le ja sakte hain—shayad upcoming elections is mein kirdar ada kar sakti hain, jo humein bina kisi significant chart disruption ya invalid candle patterns ke is point tak trade karne ka mauqa de sakti hain. Main is broader projection se aam tor par muttahid hoon, lekin yaad rahe ke short term mein, khaaskar weekly aur daily charts par, hum 1.1065 ke neeche gir sakte hain, shayad 1.1024 tak bhi. Filhal, mera bias selling ki taraf hai, kyunki mujhe nahi lagta ke pair ko significantly upar le jaane ke liye koi mazboot buniyad maujood hai, lekin kabhi bhi kuch bhi kehna mushkil hai. Yeh levels sirf andazay hain, lekin main technical analysis par dhyan de raha hoon, bearish move ko pasand karte hue jab tak trading 1.1111–1.1120 range ke neeche rahe.