یورپی ڈالر بمقابلہ امریکی ڈالر

Peer soomwar ko, Euro ne North American trading ke doran thoda sa rebound dekha, jab ke Asian session mein ye kafi nuqsan utha chuka tha. 1.11 ka level chhote waqt ke charts par mazboot support faraham kar raha hai, jo market ke liye ek ahm psychological zone hai. Itihaas mein, EUR/USD aksar bade gol numbers ke darmiyan ghoomta hai, is liye agar Euro aur girta hai, to agla maqool target 1.10 level hoga.

1.10 ka mark pehle bhi ek ahm support area ke tor par kaam kar chuka hai, aur agar Euro is level ke neeche girta hai, to ye ek mazboot bottom banne ki nishani ho sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar market recover hota hai, to 1.12 ka level resistance ke tor par kaam karega. Filhal, pair kafi choppy aur sideways action ka samna kar raha hai, is liye traders ko in key round numbers par tawajjoh deni chahiye jab market inke darmiyan oscillate kar raha ho. Is pair ki technical nature, jo high liquidity aur mazboot options market se asarandaz hoti hai, in levels ko khaas tor par sensitive banati hai.

Is waqt, Eurozone aur U.S. economy dono ke uncertain halaat ke chalte, ye pata lagana mushkil hai ke Euro aur U.S. dollar mein se kaun sa lambay arse ka winner ban sakta hai. Is liye, ek zyada strategic approach ye ho sakti hai ke U.S. dollar ki taqat ko map karain aur ise doosri currency pairs par lagoo karain. Maslan, agar dollar Euro ke muqablay mein mazid mazboot hota hai, to dollar ko kisi tez chalne wali ya exotic currency ke khilaf trade karna zyada faida mand ho sakta hai.

EUR/USD pair ke liye, ye zyada suitable hai ke short-term chart analysis par tawajjoh di jaye, di gayi market volatility aur price level ke fluctuations ko mad e nazar rakhte hue. Eurozone aur U.S. economies mein uncertainties ke mad e nazar, traders ko EUR/USD pair mein 1.10 aur 1.12 levels par khaas tawajjoh deni chahiye. Ye levels significant support aur resistance points hain, jo short-term trading decisions ko guide kar sakte hain.

Market ki in key levels par sensitivity central bank policies aur global economic conditions ke asar se barh gayi hai. Jab ke ECB aur Federal Reserve apne easing measures ko jari rakhte hain, pair mein volatility barhne ki umeed hai, jo short-term trades ko long-term positions par zyada faida mand banata hai. Traders ko ehtiyaat aur agility barqarar rakhni chahiye, taake wo current market environment ko behtar taur par navigate kar sakein.

### 1-Hour Chart Technical Outlook

Aaj 1-hour chart par, daam ne do dinon mein sab se unche trading price ko tod kar trading shuru ki hai, jo ke price channels mein hai. Pehla channel, jo neela hai, sideway trend ko darust karta hai aur pichle do trading dinon ka trend dikhata hai. Dusra channel, jo laal hai, upward trend ko darust karta hai aur sirf kal ke movement trend ka izhar hai.

Neela channel toot gaya hai aur ab daam isay dobara test karne ke liye waapas aa raha hai. Isliye, umeed hai ke jab daam neela channel line ko chhooega to yeh upar ki taraf rebound karega aur din bhar ke liye 1.1211 ke resistance level ki taraf barhta rahega.

Bearish scenario bhi maujood hai agar daam dobara neela channel ke andar trade karta hai. Is surat mein, mumkin hai ke daam weekly pivot level 1.1139 tak gir jaye aur phir wahan se upar ki taraf rebound kare.

Economic taraf se, economic calendar ke natije ke mutabiq, Eurozone mein business activity September mein ghat gayi hai, jo ke services aur manufacturing sectors mein masail ke badhne ki nishani hai. S&P Global ke zariye tayyar kiya gaya Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) 51.0 se gir kar 48.9 par aa gaya hai, jo ke February ke baad pehli martaba contraction darust karta hai. Yeh kami kam demand aur Germany aur France jese bade ma’ashi mulkon mein masail ki wajah se hui hai, jo ke aane wale growth prospects ko le kar concerns barhate hain aur European Central Bank ke policy easing ke baray mein speculation ko bhi tez karte hain.

PMI ka 50 ke critical threshold se niche girna Eurozone mein ma’ashi halat ke kharab hone ka darust karta hai. Services PMI August mein 52.9 se gir kar September mein 50.5 par aa gaya hai, jabke manufacturing PMI 45.8 se gir kar 44.8 tak pahuncha hai. Germany, jo ke is region ka sab se bada ma’ashi mulk hai, khas tor par mutasir hua hai; yeh dusre quarter mein -0.1% contraction ka samna kar raha hai aur teesre quarter mein aur bhi girawat dekh raha hai.

Is mutalqi maamle mein, trader ko ma’ashi halat ko dekhte hue apni strategy tayyar karni chahiye.

**Sham bakhair, pyare traders. Aaj hum 1.0845 ke shetra mein gir gaye hain, jo ek ahm support area hai. Jab hum 1.0930 se 1.0890 tak ke correction levels ka istemal karte hain, to is surat mein 36.8% ka range 1.0970 par hai. Yeh achi release ki nishani hai. Agar 1.0870 ke upar breakdown aur consolidation hoti hai, to yeh upar ki taraf barhne ka acha mauqa ho sakta hai. Iske ilawa, 1.0875 ka resistance level bhi torhna expect kiya ja raha hai. Agar yeh wahaan apni jagah bana leta hai, to kharidne ka ek behtareen mauqa mil sakta hai.

Agar galat breakdown hota hai, to yeh bechne ka ek ahem signal hai, jis ke liye tayyar rehna chahiye. Jab hum 1.0647 ke shetra ko tor kar wahan fix ho jate hain, tab bechne ka ek behtareen mauqa milta hai. EUR/USD ka expect hai ke yeh 1.0965 tak gire, jab yeh pehle 1.08785 ka support zone dekhta hai.

Aaj, ek baar phir 1.1060 ke shetra ko torne mein kamiyabi mili hai, aur iske baad barhna continue ho sakta hai. H4 chart par 1.0965 ka false breakout nazar aata hai; agar yeh is se upar fix hota hai, to yeh barhne ka signal confirm karega. Aage kharidari tab mumkin hogi jab yeh 1.1060 ke range ko tor kar wahan fix hota hai. 1.0720 ke false breakdowns kharidne ka behtareen signal honge, jo munafa ka khaas potential rakhte hain.

1.0894 ka level torna bohot zaroori hai, taake currency ko aur barhne ka mauqa mile. Agar yeh 1.0900 ke niche girta hai, to bechne ka mauqa hoga. Fibo levels ka istemal karte hue, is surat mein 38.4% ka critical corrective range 1.0953 par nazar aata hai agar rising wave 1.0910 se 1.0890 tak ke correction levels ke saath dekha jaye.

Hamesha yaad rakhein, trading mein samajh aur analysis bohot zaroori hai. Aapko market ke movements ka dhyan rakhna chahiye aur apne strategies ko behtar banana chahiye. Yeh market ke trends ko samajhne aur unhe profit mein tabdeel karne ka ek behtareen mauqa hai. Aapka din acha guzre!**

Euro, jo ke abhi major currencies ke muqable mein underperform kar raha hai, ne Wednesday ki New York trading session ke dauran apne recent highs 1.1055 se significant decline dekha. Market sentiment abhi zyada ter ECB ke September mein ek aur interest rate cut ki umeed ke asar mein hai. Is move ke anticipation ne intensity gain ki hai jab inflation rates gir rahe hain, jo ke yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh rate-cutting cycle September ke baad bhi barh sakta hai. Abhi spot price 1.1016 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai.
ECB ke potential interest rate decisions ka andaza lagane ke liye investors German aur Eurozone HICP data ka closely jaiza lenge jo Thursday aur Friday ko release honge. Analysts expect karte hain ke Eurozone ka annual headline HICP, jo ke overall inflation ko measure karta hai, 2.3% tak decelerate karega, jab ke core HICP, jo ke volatile items ko exclude karta hai, 2.8% tak moderate hoga.

**EUR/USD ke fundamentals:**ECB ke aur zyada interest rate cuts ki umeed badh gayi hai Eurozone ke economic outlook aur wage growth slowdown ke hawale se barhati hui uncertainties ki wajah se. Hiraan kun baat yeh hai ke Eurozone ki economic activity August mein unexpected upar gayi, flash HCOB PMI report ke mutabiq. Magar yeh uptick ziada ter France mein Olympic Games ki wajah se aayi demand ki wajah se hua. Economists isay temporary boost samajhte hain, naa ke kisi fundamental economic change ko.

ECB ke Chief Economist Philip Lane ne JH Symposium ke dauran Saturday ko yeh kaha ke restrictive monetary policy ki zarurat hai. Lane ne inflation ke khilaf ladai mein ki gayi taraqqi ko acknowledge kiya, magar yeh bhi kaha ke lambi muddat tak success ka koi yaqeen nahi hai. Unki baat ne ECB ke inflationary pressures ko manage karne aur market expectations ko guide karne ke challenges ko ujagar kiya.

**Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:**

Wednesday ko pair 1.1010 level ke neeche slip kar gaya jab buyers ko upward momentum banaye rakhne mein mushkil hui. Pair abhi 50-day EMA ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo ke 1.0962 par hai, magar agar decline jari rehta hai to price 20-day EMA ke paas wapas aa sakti hai, jo ke 1.1050 ke qareeb hai. EUR/USD buyers ke liye resistance 14-day SMA par 1.1026 ke aas-paas dekhi ja sakti hai.

Pair ko 1.1000 ke crucial psychological level ke breach hone ka khatra hai. Technical indicators jaise ke MACD aur RSI bearish outlook ki taraf ishara karte hain. Agar downward momentum barqarar rehti hai, to traders ko apni positions ka jaiza lena hoga aur potential reversals ke liye hoshiyaar rehna hoga

Yeh dekhna kaafi dilchasp hoga ke kya Euro GBP ki tarah ek aur higher high banata hai. Yeh bilkul mumkin hai, halaan ke GBP ne reversal ke signs dena shuru kar diye hain, jo abhi tak EUR/USD mein nahi dekhe gaye.Agar hum daily chart se analysis shuru karein, toh aisa lagta hai ke ek fifth wave ka growth form ho raha hai, aur mujhe abhi tak koi aise wajah nazar nahi aa rahi ke yeh na ho. Pehle ek signal aaya tha Euro ke rise hone ka, jiska target 1.12301 tha, aur yeh abhi tak meri chart par purple line ke tor par mojood hai. Lekin ab hum ek different level aur signal par baat kar rahe hain, jo hourly timeframe se hai. Yeh thora qareebi target deta hai, lekin agar growth jaari rahi toh dono targets achieve ho sakte hain. Chaliye ab hourly timeframe par nazar daalte hain.Dusri chart par H4 timeframe hai, lekin targets dekhne ke liye hum hourly buy signal par discussion karenge. Signal level 1.11446 par consider kiya ja raha hai. Is signal level se neeche aur stop-loss level se ooper jo bhi buy entries hoti hain, wo advantageous aur sahi buying points hain. Stop-loss level ko 1.10677 ke neeche consider kiya gaya hai. Target jo mention kiya gaya hai, wo 1.12209 hai. Agar hum signal level se ooper buying karte hain, toh risk-to-reward ratio 1 to 1 se kam ho jata hai, jo ke long-term mein profitable nahi hoga. Dosre lafzon mein, buying entry point aise select karna chahiye ke wo 1 to 1 ratio se neeche na ho. Agar 1 to 2 ratio achieve karna hai, toh buy entries 1.11187 se start karni chahiye. Aur agar 1 to 3 ratio achieve karna hai, toh entries 1.11038 se start karni hongi. Maine chart par grid aise set kiya hai ke wo ek ruler ki tarah lagta hai. Yani, 0.0% stop hai, 100% profit hai, aur 50% level signal level hai. Currency pair EUR/USD ne Thursday ke din low level 1.10680 se reversal le kar northwards move kiya. Abhi pair Bollinger Bands ke bullish zone mein 1.11625 ke level par hai. MACD histogram zero mark se ooper hai, aur RSI midline ke ooper hai. Agle hafte price ka mazid strong hona aur 261.8% level (1.13133) tak pohanchna expect kiya ja raha hai.

ستمبر 25 2024 کو یورو/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

یورو 1.1186 کی مضبوط مزاحمتی سطح سے آگے بڑھ گیا۔ کل کا تجارتی حجم اوسط سے زیادہ تھا۔ مارکیٹ ایک بار پھر خطرے کی بھوک سے چل رہی ہے۔ ایس. اینڈ. پی. 500 انڈیکس میں 0.25% اضافہ ہوا، تیل کی قیمتوں میں 1.73% کا اضافہ ہوا، اور 5 سالہ امریکی حکومتی بانڈز کی پیداوار 3.50% سے کم ہو کر 3.47% ہو گئی۔ ایسا لگتا ہے کہ اسٹریٹجک کھلاڑیوں نے مارکیٹ پر مضبوط کنٹرول حاصل کر لیا ہے اور امریکی انتخابات سے پہلے اس کو گرنے کا امکان نہیں ہے۔



اس سے پہلے، ہمیں اس ایونٹ پر کم مضبوط گرفت کی توقع تھی (کیونکہ فیڈرل ریزرو شرح کو 0.50 فیصد کم کرنے سے نہیں ڈرتا تھا) اور دسمبر تک ایس. اینڈ. پی. 500 کی طرف سے نقل و حرکت متوقع تھی، جس سے یورو میں کمی واقع ہو سکتی تھی۔ تاہم، مارکیٹ دن بہ دن نئی ہمہ وقتی اونچائیاں طے کرتی رہتی ہے۔

یورو کے لیے اب نئے اہداف کھل گئے ہیں: 1.1276 (جولائی 2023 کی چوٹی) اور 1.1335۔ روزانہ ٹائم فریم پر مارلن آسیلیٹر اپ ٹرینڈ علاقے میں واپس آ گیا ہے۔

چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، قیمت بیلنس لائن (ریڈ موونگ ایوریج) سے اوپر مستحکم ہو گئی ہے، اور مارلن آسیلیٹر مثبت زون میں واضح اضافہ دکھاتا ہے۔ دونوں ٹائم فریموں میں صورتحال تیز ہے۔ اب ہم قیمت کو 1.1276 کے پہلے ہدف تک پہنچنے کے لیے دیکھ رہے ہیں۔



.تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke

Eur/Usd

dekhna kaafi dilchasp hoga ke kya Euro GBP ki tarah ek aur higher high banata hai. Yeh bilkul mumkin hai, halaan ke GBP ne reversal ke signs dena shuru kar diye hain, jo abhi tak EUR/USD mein nahi dekhe gaye.Agar hum daily chart se analysis shuru karein, toh aisa lagta hai ke ek fifth wave ka growth form ho raha hai, aur mujhe abhi tak koi aise wajah nazar nahi aa rahi ke yeh na ho. Pehle ek signal aaya tha Euro ke rise hone ka, jiska target 1.12301 tha, aur yeh abhi tak meri chart par purple line ke tor par mojood hai. Lekin ab hum ek different level aur signal par baat kar rahe hain, jo hourly timeframe se hai. Yeh thora qareebi target deta hai, lekin agar growth jaari rahi toh dono targets achieve ho sakte hain. Chaliye ab hourly timeframe par nazar daalte hain.Dusri chart par H4 timeframe hai, lekin targets dekhne ke liye hum hourly buy signal par discussion karenge. Signal level 1.11446 par consider kiya ja raha hai. Is signal level se neeche aur stop-loss level se ooper jo bhi buy entries hoti hain, wo advantageous aur sahi buying points hain. Stop-loss level ko 1.10677 ke neeche consider kiya gaya hai. Target jo mention kiya gaya hai,

dekhna kaafi dilchasp hoga ke kya Euro GBP ki tarah ek aur higher high banata hai. Yeh bilkul mumkin hai, halaan ke GBP ne reversal ke signs dena shuru kar diye hain, jo abhi tak EUR/USD mein nahi dekhe gaye.Agar hum daily chart se analysis shuru karein, toh aisa lagta hai ke ek fifth wave ka growth form ho raha hai, aur mujhe abhi tak koi aise wajah nazar nahi aa rahi ke yeh na ho. Pehle ek signal aaya tha Euro ke rise hone ka, jiska target 1.12301 tha, aur yeh abhi tak meri chart par purple line ke tor par mojood hai. Lekin ab hum ek different level aur signal par baat kar rahe hain, jo hourly timeframe se hai. Yeh thora qareebi target deta hai, lekin agar growth jaari rahi toh dono targets achieve ho sakte hain. Chaliye ab hourly timeframe par nazar daalte hain.Dusri chart par H4 timeframe hai, lekin targets dekhne ke liye hum hourly buy signal par discussion karenge. Signal level 1.11446 par consider kiya ja raha hai. Is signal level se neeche aur stop-loss level se ooper jo bhi buy entries hoti hain, wo advantageous aur sahi buying points hain. Stop-loss level ko 1.10677 ke neeche consider kiya gaya hai. Target jo mention kiya gaya hai,

significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke

aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke

USD mein Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.1237 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon, GBP/USD currency pair ke neeche jaane ke chances abhi bhi hain, halankiClick image for

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

EUR/USD ki qeemat 1.1200 ke nazdeek barh rahi hai jab Euro, Eurozone ki ma'ashi growth ke baare mein gehri chinta ke bawajood, mazid taqat hasil kar raha hai. ECB ki umeed hai ke wo is saal ke bache hue do policy meetings mein se ek mein interest rates ko kam karega.

Agla bara trigger US Dollar ke liye US core PCE inflation data hai jo ke August ke liye Friday ko aane wala hai. EUR/USD apni taraf se barhkar saal ki unchi simat 1.1200 ke nazdeek pahuncha hai, jab ke US Dollar (USD) ko pressure ka saamna hai kyun ke China ke taraf se bada stimulus plans ka elan hua hai jo unki ma'ashi slowdown ke khataron se nikalne ke liye hai. Aam tor par, khushgawar market sentiment ke doran US Dollar mein investment flows kam hote hain.

China ke is bade stimulus ke ilawa, Federal Reserve (Fed) ke taraf se November mein bade rate cuts ki umeedon mein izafa ne bhi US Dollar ko pichhe dhakel diya hai. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ki qeemat ko chhe badi currencies ke khilaf track karta hai, Wednesday ko thodi barh gayi hai lekin ab bhi saal ke unche simat 100.20 ke nazdeek hai.

CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, Fed ke taraf se 50 basis points (bps) ka rate cut karne ki sambhavana 60% tak barh gayi hai, jo ke pehle 37% thi. Fed ne 18 September ko policy-easing cycle shuru kiya tha aur 50 bps ka bade rate cut ka elan kiya tha kyun ke officials ko declining labor demand ki chinta thi.

Is hafte, US Dollar ke liye bada trigger United States ka core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data hai jo ke Friday ko aane wala hai, jo ke Fed ka pasandeeda inflation gauge hai. Yeh andaza lagaya gaya hai ke underlying inflation measure July mein 2.6% se barh kar 2.7% tak pahunchega.

Fed ke pasandeeda inflation gauge se pehle, investors ko US Durable Goods Orders ke August ke liye data par bhi nazar rakhni hogi, jo ke Thursday ko aane wala hai. Naye Durable Goods Orders ke 2.6% tak kam hone ka andaza hai jab ke July mein ye 9.8% ki mazboot growth dikhayi thi.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

EUR/USD ki qeemat 1.1200 ke aham resistance ke nazdeek barh rahi hai aur Wednesday ki European trading session mein ise hasil karne ki koshish kar rahi hai. Yeh major currency pair 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), jo ke 1.1100 ke aas-paas hai, ke nazdeek mazboot kharidari ke shauq ke baad tezi se recovery dikhata hai.

Major currency pair ka outlook tab tak mazboot rahega jab tak yeh daily time frame par Rising Channel chart pattern ka breakout 1.1000 ke psychological support ke nazdeek banaye rakhta hai.

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 55.00 ki taraf gir raha hai, jo momentum ke kamzor hone ki taraf ishara karta hai.

Agar 1.1200 ke round-level resistance par koi faislay karnay wala break hota hai, to is se further izafa dekhne ko milega, jo ke July 2023 ke high 1.1276 ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Niche ki taraf, psychological level 1.1000 aur July 17 ka high 1.0950 ke nazdeek major support zones hain.

Technical analysis of the EURUSD pair

1-hour chart par, price aaj trading shuru karte hue do dinon ke doraan sab se unche trading price ko tod diya hai, aur price channels ke andar hai. Pehla channel, jo neela hai, ek sideways trend ko darshata hai aur pichle do trading dinon ka trend hai.

Dusra channel, jo laal hai, ek upward trend ko darshata hai aur sirf kal ke movement trend ko darshata hai. Neela channel tod diya gaya hai aur ab price dobara isay retest karne aa rahi hai, isliye umeed hai ke jab price neela channel line ko chhooti hai toh yeh upar ki taraf rebound karegi aur din ke dauran 1.1211 ke resistance level tak barhegi.

Bearish scenario bhi mumkin hai agar price dobara neela channel ke andar trade karti hai, is surat mein, price 1.1139 ke weekly pivot level tak girne ki sambhavana hai aur phir wahan se upar ki taraf rebound karne ki umeed hai.

Economic side par, economic calendar ke natije ke mutabiq... Eurozone mein business activity September mein achanak kam hui hai, jo services aur manufacturing sectors mein masail ke badhne ka darshata hai. Region ka Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), jo S&P Global dwara tayar kiya gaya hai, August mein 51.0 se girkar 48.9 par aa gaya, jo February ke baad pehli baar contraction hai. Yeh girawat kamzor demand aur Germany aur France jaise bade economies mein economic challenges ke wajah se hai, jo mustaqbil ke growth prospects ko le kar chinta badhaata hai aur European Central Bank ke policy easing ke mumkinah speculation ko bhi barhaata hai.

PMI ka 50 ke critical threshold se neeche girna eurozone mein kharab economic conditions ko darshata hai. Services PMI August mein 52.9 se gir kar September mein 50.5 par aa gaya, jabke manufacturing PMI 45.8 se gir kar 44.8 par aaya. Germany, jo region ki sab se badi economy hai, khaaskar asar mein raha, jo doosre quarter mein -0.1% contract kiya aur teesre quarter mein aur girawat ka samna kar raha hai.

### EUR/USD Weekly Analysis

Main Euro Dollar pair ka weekly chart par jaiza le raha hoon. Jab yeh pair 0.9708 ke support ke qareeb trade kar raha tha, to European Central Bank (ECB) ne apni monetary policy ko tight karna shuru kiya. Is wajah se yeh pair resistance 1.11810 tak pohanch gaya. Phir kuch rumors aaye ke Federal Reserve (Fed) apni monetary policy ko tighten karna band kar dega. Us waqt ECB ke bare mein koi baat nahi ho rahi thi, lekin baad mein pata chala ke ECB ne Fed se pehle apni policy ko tight karna band kar diya.

Eurozone mein inflation ne 2% ka target achieve kar liya, aur ECB ko interest rates kaatne pad gaye. Jab Fed ne apni tightening policy band karne ka elan kiya, to is waqt pair 1.05588 par trade kar raha tha aur yeh rise karna shuru hua. Lekin baad mein yeh bhi pata chala ke Fed interest rates nahi kaat raha kyunki inflation ab bhi high thi. Phir jab inflation stagnate ho gayi, to yeh pair wapas previous lows par chala gaya aur range mein trade karne laga.

Ab agle Fed ke bayan se pehle, pair phir se 1.11810 ke resistance ki taraf barh raha hai. Inflation stagnate ho chuki hai aur yeh samajhna mushkil hai ke pair ke is rise ke peeche kya wajah hai. Halankeh Fed interest rates kaat raha hai aur inflation 3.2% par hai, yeh itna positive nahi lagta. Mera khayal hai ke pair phir se 1.07684 ke levels ke qareeb laut aayega, kyunki mujhe nahi lagta ke aisi inflation ke sath uptrend jaari rahega.

Mujhe lagta hai ke market ki current halat ko dekhte hue, yeh pair wapas purani low levels ki taraf aa sakta hai. Is waqt ke market dynamics aur economic indicators ko samajhna zaroori hai. Fed ke decisions ka direct asar currency pairs par hota hai, aur jab tak inflation ke numbers itne high hain, tab tak investor confidence mein kami aa sakti hai.

Is waqt EUR/USD pair ka trend thoda uncertain hai. Market participants ko chahiye ke woh Federal Reserve ke announcements aur inflation ki taraf dekhte rahein. Mujhe lagta hai ke short-term mein range-bound trading dekhne ko milegi, jab tak clear direction nahi milti. In sab factors ko madde nazar rakhtay hue, trading decisions lena behad zaroori hai, aur cautious approach rakhna behtar hoga.

Peer soomwar ko, Euro ne North American trading ke doran thoda sa rebound dekha, jab ke Asian session mein ye kafi nuqsan utha chuka tha. 1.11 ka level chhote waqt ke charts par mazboot support faraham kar raha hai, jo market ke liye ek ahm psychological zone hai. Itihaas mein, EUR/USD aksar bade gol numbers ke darmiyan ghoomta hai, is liye agar Euro aur girta hai, to agla maqool target 1.10 level hoga.
1.10 ka mark pehle bhi ek ahm support area ke tor par kaam kar chuka hai, aur agar Euro is level ke neeche girta hai, to ye ek mazboot bottom banne ki nishani ho sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar market recover hota hai, to 1.12 ka level resistance ke tor par kaam karega. Filhal, pair kafi choppy aur sideways action ka samna kar raha hai, is liye traders ko in key round numbers par tawajjoh deni chahiye jab market inke darmiyan oscillate kar raha ho. Is pair ki technical nature, jo high liquidity aur mazboot options market se asarandaz hoti hai, in levels ko khaas tor par sensitive banati hai.

Is waqt, Eurozone aur U.S. economy dono ke uncertain halaat ke chalte, ye pata lagana mushkil hai ke Euro aur U.S. dollar mein se kaun sa lambay arse ka winner ban sakta hai. Is liye, ek zyada strategic approach ye ho sakti hai ke U.S. dollar ki taqat ko map karain aur ise doosri currency pairs par lagoo karain. Maslan, agar dollar Euro ke muqablay mein mazid mazboot hota hai, to dollar ko kisi tez chalne wali ya exotic currency ke khilaf trade karna zyada faida mand ho sakta hai.

EUR/USD pair ke liye, ye zyada suitable hai ke short-term chart analysis par tawajjoh di jaye, di gayi market volatility aur price level ke fluctuations ko mad e nazar rakhte hue. Eurozone aur U.S. economies mein uncertainties ke mad e nazar, traders ko EUR/USD pair mein 1.10 aur 1.12 levels par khaas tawajjoh deni chahiye. Ye levels significant support aur resistance points hain, jo short-term trading decisions ko guide kar sakte hain.

Market ki in key levels par sensitivity central bank policies aur global economic conditions ke asar se barh gayi hai. Jab ke ECB aur Federal Reserve apne easing measures ko jari rakhte hain, pair mein volatility barhne ki umeed hai, jo short-term trades ko long-term positions par zyada faida mand banata hai. Traders ko ehtiyaat aur agility barqarar rakhni chahiye, taake wo current market environment ko behtar taur par navigate kar sakein