eur/usd

EUR/USD
Markets ka main focus ab September interest rate cut ke prospects par hai. Current market expectations ne fully price kiya hai ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ki meeting 18 September ko rate-cutting cycle shuru kar sakti hai. Lekin, pehli baar 50 basis points cut hone ki sambhavana thori kam hui hai, ab yeh chances 50% se thoda zyada hain, jabke pehle is hafte ke shuru mein yeh nearly 70% the. CME’s FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, traders 53.5% probability de rahe hain ke September mein 50 basis points cut hoga, aur 2024 ke end tak do additional 25 basis points cuts ki bhi ummeed hai.
US Job Data ne Economic Concerns ko Kam kiya Better-Than-Expected Claims ke Saath:
US labor market se recent data ne economic weakness ke concerns ko kam kar diya hai. August 2 ko khatam hone wale hafte ke liye Initial Jobless Claims ki kam hone wali figures ne 233,000 tak drop kiya, jo forecasted 240,000 aur pehle ke figure 250,000 se zyada achha hai (jo pehle 249,000 se revise hua tha). TD Securities ke head of US rates strategy Gennadiy Goldberg ne data par positive comments diye, kehte hue, “Yeh markets ke liye ek bohot positive print hai. Yeh yeh reinforce karta hai ke labor market ka momentum usi tarah se slow nahi ho raha hai jaisa payroll report se laga, aur yeh bhi reinforce karta hai ke economy mein bahut zyada layoffs nahi ho rahe.”



H1 Chart EUR/USD ko Positive Signals ke Baawajood Mushkil Hoti Hai:
Friday ko, pair ne apni late rebound ko 1.1050 ke low se banaya, lekin Asian session mein upward momentum banaye rakhne mein mushkil ka samna kiya. Market ke band hone par, pair 1.1046 ke aas-paas trade kar raha tha, din ke liye 0.55% se zyada girawat ke saath. Yeh girawat ek recent winning streak ko khatam kar rahi thi aur pair ko key 1.1100 level ke neeche le gayi, jo suggest karta hai ke bullish momentum shayad kam ho raha hai. Pair ab shayad ek downward trend mein wapas ja sakta hai jo iske 2024 ke performance ko characterize karta hai.
Recent bounce Thursday ko 1.1150 resistance level se jo ab support ban gaya hai, bullish traders ko faida de raha hai. Iske ilawa, hourly chart par technical indicators achhe signals de rahe hain aur abhi tak overbought conditions tak nahi pahunche hain, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke EUR/USD pair mein ab bhi additional gains ki potential ho sakti hai.

Federal Reserve ke hawale se dheema approach ki ummeed ne bazaar ke dynamics ko significant tor par tabdeel kar diya hai, aur traders ko interest rate ke ghatne ya dheere dheere barhne ke imkaan ka speculations hai, jo US ke mixed economic indicators ke jawab mein hai . Halankeh inflationary pressures ab bhi barqarar hain, economic activity mein dheemapan ke nishan ne euro ko mazbooti di hai, jabke Fed ke zyada accommodating hone ki umeed barh gayi hai. Is ke muqablay, Eurozone mein economic recovery uneven rahi hai, jahan growth member countries ke darmiyan farq karti hai. European Central Bank (ECB) ne apni cautious stance ko barqarar rakha hai, jo euro ko support deta hai aik challenging economic backdrop ke darmiyan. ECB ke policy direction ke hawale se bazaar ka jazbaat EUR/USD pair ke liye aik ahem factor rahega. Global geopolitical uncertainties aur aane wale US economic data ke asraat ke mad e nazar, Fed ke policy decisions ko nazar e sanbhal se dekha jayega. **Technical View Of EUR/USD:** Technical pehlu se, EUR/USD pair mein kaafi fluctuations dekhe gaye hain, jo significant support aur resistance levels ke darmiyan trade kar raha hai. May se early June tak bearish trend ke baad, jab price 1.1100 se gir kar 1.0700 tak pohnchi, market ne kai fair value gaps (FVGs) dekhe jo baad mein balance talash karte hue bhar diye gaye. July mein aayi recovery ke doran, jab price 1.1100 ke nazdeek wapas chali gayi aur kai FVGs aur daily liquidity zones (DLiq) ko paar kiya, August mein price 1.1270 tak pohnchi, lekin 1.1250 ke aas-paas resistance ka samna kiya. Filhal, EUR/USD pair 1.1085 ke nazdeek consolidate kar raha hai heightened volatility ke baad. Price 34-day exponential moving average (EMA) ke upar hai, jo ek prevailing bullish trend ko darshata hai. Lekin, MACD signal line se pull back kar gaya hai, jo uptrend mein ek potential pause ya reversal ko signal karta hai. Key support levels mein 1.1000 mark, aur 50-day aur 200-day moving averages se additional support shamil hai. 1.1100 par resistance ab bhi ek critical factor hai jo future price movements ko determine kareg

Yeh apne upward movement ko continue kiya. Din bhar mein, sirf ek report publish hui thi Nonfarm Payrolls ki annual revision ke bare mein, jo ki forecasts se bhi worse nikli. Asal mein, agar yeh expected se better bhi hoti, toh dollar phir bhi fall karta. Monday aur Tuesday ko, dollar ko macroeconomic backdrop ki zaroorat nahi thi apne decline ko sustain karne ke liye. Toh, yeh kehna mushkil nahi hai ki US labor market ke ek aur weak report ne US currency ko further fall kar diya. Lekin, US dollar daily fall raha hai, regardless of these reports, aur correct bhi nahi kar pa raha hai. Nonfarm Payrolls report previously published reports ki correction nahi hai; yeh sirf annual figure ki adjustment hai. Market ne pehle weaker monthly reports ko account kiya, phir annual one ko, jo ki essentially same data ko reflect karta hai. Abhi traders ko sirf ek sawal puchna chahiye ki yeh relentless rise kab tak continue karega. Upside par trading easy, simple, aur convenient lagta hai, lekin sirf first glance par, kyunki traders likely samajhte hain ki euro almost out of the blue rise kar raha hai. Isliye, yeh movement kisi bhi moment par end ho sakta hai. Currency ko buy karna jab aapko nahi pata ki yeh kyun rise kar raha hai, yeh pleasant task nahi hai. Phir bhi, uptrend ke ending ke signs nahi hain, price continue rise kar sakti hai 1.1185 aur 1.1234 ke targets ke sath.
Wednesday ko, sirf ek trading signal forma hua - US trading session mein 1.1137 level surpass hua. Din ke end par, euro sirf 15 pips rise kiya, lekin volatility currently low hai, aur movement one-sided hai. Yeh trade Thursday tak hold ki ja sakti hai 1.1185 ke target ke sath.
EUR/USD hourly time frame mein steady aur measured upward movement sustain kar raha hai. Last week, new US inflation reports ne market ko dollar ko sell karne ka ek aur reason diya. Is week, market Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell se dovish rhetoric expect kar raha hai. Market har available opportunity ko seize kar raha hai dollar ko sell karne ke liye. Ab humare paas do ascending trendlines hain, jo ki euro ko support kar rahe hain. General mein, koi bhi indicators currently suggest nahi kar rahe hain ki uptrend end ho raha ha
EUR/USD ka next target strong seller supply resistance area 1.1245-1.1250 tak pohnch sakta hai. Moving Average ko trend strength monitor karne ke liye use karna hai

Chalo ab hum EUR/USD currency pair ki price ke behavior aur us se honay wali analysis par baat karte hain. Tumhara target 1.1374 ke qareeb mujhe mumkin lagta hai, khas tor par jab yeh move zyada tar broader fundamentals ki wajah se hoti hai. Yeh dekhna zaroori hoga ke kaun se future events prices ko itna ooper le jaa sakte hain—shayad aayan wale elections is mein kirdar ada karein, jis se hum us point tak trade kar sakein baghair kisi bari chart disruption ya invalid candle patterns ke. Main aam tor par is projection se ittefaq karta hoon, lekin yeh zaroor yaad rahe ke short term mein, khaas tor par weekly aur daily charts par, hum shayad 1.1065 se neeche gir jaayein, aur mumkin hai ke yeh 1.1024 tak bhi pohonch jaye. Filhaal, mera bias sell ki taraf hai kyun ke mujhe koi itni mazboot foundation nazar nahi aati jo pair ko kaafi ooper push kar sake, lekin kisi baat ka yaqeen nahi kiya ja sakta. Yeh levels sirf taqriban hain, magar mera focus technical analysis par hai aur bearish move ko favor kar raha hoon jab tak trading 1.1111–1.1120 range se neeche rehti hai. Abhi EUR/USD mein jo bearish formation nazar aa rahi hai, jo ke pichlay Jumay ke US news ke baad chart par saamne aayi hai, yeh aam tor par ek trap ho sakti hai jo traders ko sell positions mein phansanay ke liye design ki gayi ho . Most of the time ke sentiment ke bar aks, agar yeh scenario market khulnay ke baad play out hota hai aur kai traders in zones mein bohat ziyata selling shuru kar dete hain, to price unexpected tor par upar bhi move kar sakti hai. Trading volumes aur related indicators ko closely monitor karna zaroori hoga taake yeh samajh sakein ke yeh "smart money" trap hai ya asli bearish signal jo mazeed declines ki taraf le ja raha hai. Agar yeh waqai trap hai, aur market reverse karta hai, to hum initial tor par recent highs se upar takhtay dekh sakte hain jahan significant liquidity jama ho chuki hai. Agar yeh scenario umeed ke mutabiq unfold hota hai, to yeh liquidity poori tarah se tapped ho sakti hai, jis se pair 1.0954 ke aas paas accumulation zone ki taraf chala jaye

Euro ne trading haftay ke dauran thori recovery ki aur 1.11 level tak pohanch gaya. Lekin, ye harqat kuch khaas nahi thi aur mein shor walay price action se bharpoor thi. Yeh baat aham hai keh Federal Reserve se umeed ki ja rahi hai ke woh jald hi interest rate kum kare ga, lekin 1.12 mark se zyada par ek ahem muqawamat mojood hai. Is muqawamat ko torhna kafi mushkil ho sakta hai, jis ka matlab yeh ho sakta hai ke euro qareeb waqt ke liye sideway trade kare. Agar market 1.10 level se neeche toot jaye, toh hum 200-week EMA ka test aur phir 1.09 support level ki taraf ek move dekh sakte hain.
Dusri taraf, agar euro muqawamat torne mein kamyab ho jata hai, toh usay 1.1240 level se upar jane ke liye kai koshishon ki zaroorat hogi. Yeh ilaqa significant hai kyun ke yahaan 2022 ke aaghaz mein ek bari sell-off hui thi. Federal Reserve aur European Central Bank ke interest rate ke faislay bhi maarkat ki harqat par asar daltay hain, aur yeh sab kuch in policies ke natayej par manhasir hai. Federal Reserve ke expected rate cuts ki tadaad abhi tak gheir yaqini hai, aur traders September ke faislay ke baad honay wali press conference ko ghor se dekhenge, khaas tor par Jerome Powell ke bayan ko.

Is waqt, euro apni trading range ke saray ke upar ke qareeb hai jo ke kayi saalon se mein hai. Mojuuda technical aur bunyadi factors ko dekhte hue, bari faiday hasil karna mushkil lagta hai jab tak ke hum kisi bari tabdeeli ko maeeshat ya policy mein nahi dekhte. Filhal, euro muqawamat ke levels aur sakke se bharay market jazbay ki wajah se masroof rahe ga

Jab ke euro front par zyada economic events nahi the, traders ne Federal Reserve ke Governor Christopher Waller ke letters aur European Union ke euro group meeting par zyada tawajju di. US GDP ke liye doosri quarter mein 2.8% ki annual basis par wohi pehle wali rate rehne ki umeed thi. Magar is hafte ka primary focus July ke Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data par tha. Market ke participants eagerly umeed lagaaye baithe the ke inflation data expectations se kam aayega, jo ke rate cut ki umeed ko barha sakta hai. Dosri taraf, agar data expectations se zyada hota hai, toh market mein dobara se volatility aa sakti hai. EUR/USD pair ki price ab bhi simple moving average zone of period 100 ke upar stable chal rahi hai jo ke ek Uptrend market situation ko darsha rahi hai. Pichle hafte market ke halaat upward trend ke saath the jo ke pichle mahine ke bullish trend ke mutabiq the. Mahine ke shuruat mein price increase ne candlestick ko 1.1202 ke position tak pohcha diya. Is mahine ka price increase kaafi zyada lagta hai, lekin trading session ke last night mein ye barhawa continue nahi ho saka kyun ke market mein correction ho rahi thi. Aaj subah tak price uptrend zone mein move karne ki koshish kar raha tha. Tuesday raat ko price upar jaane ki koshish kar raha tha magar weekly price opening ko cross nahi kar saka. Magar, raat ke increase ke saath price ke mazeed ooper jaane ki umeed aur chance barh jata hai kyun ke correction ka momentum, jo aam tor par bullish trend ko lamba karta hai, uss se madad milti hai. Aaj tak price ki journey monthly opening price zone se door chal rahi hai jo ke 1.0824 ke position par thi. Mere khayal mein, ho sakta hai ke candlestick ab bhi upar move karna chahti hai jaise pichle hafte ka market trend tha. EUR/USD pair mein market situation ab active hoti nazar aa rahi hai, halan ke buyers ki efforts price ko barhane ke liye abhi tak itni strong nahi hain. Ho sakta hai ke market jab American session mein aayega toh koi mukhtalif situation samne aaye. Is hafte ke trading mein achi opportunities dhoondhne ke liye yeh trading reference diya jaa raha hai ke jab bullish direction ka continuation

EUR/USD Price Tendency
EUR/USD currency pair ki price action ka tajziya aur behas humara mauzo hoga. EUR/USD currency pair ne aik wazeh downward correction phase mein dakhil ho gaya hai. Jumma ke din ka close khaas tor par qabil-e-zikr tha, kyun ke price seedha 1.1047 ke support level par settle hui. Market jab Monday raat ko dobara khulay gi, to aik kashmakash ho gi un logon ke darmiyan jo is horizontal line ke neeche break karna chahte hain aur doosri taraf woh log jo aik technical bounce upward ko trigger karna chahte hain. Monday ke aghaz mein market mein entry na karein, balke dekhain ke kya 1.1047 support ka clear breakdown hota hai ya nahi. Agar hota hai, to pair aur zyada neeche correct ho kar 1.0989 ke critical support level tak ja sakta hai, jahan se buy positions ko strategically consider kiya ja sakta hai. Main ne 1.1099 level se le kar 1.1054 tak, jo ke halia local low tha, sell karne ka mashwara diya tha. Lekin, aik gehra drop jo 1.1099 se le kar 1.0999-1.1019 range tak hota, jahan pair bearish channel ke lower edge ke qareeb pohanchta, ab tak materialize nahi ho saka.

Haal ka tajziya EUR/USD currency pair ki price behavior ko behas ka mauzo bana raha hai. Sab kuch logical lag raha hai: personal consumption expenditures pichle mahine se stable rahi hain, halaan ke predictions ye thein ke 0.2% annual increase hoga. Ye stability explain karti hai ke economic calendar mein ye figures red mein kyun hain. Agar spending mein koi tabdeeli nahi aati, to overall inflation rates bhi stable reh sakti hain. Nateeja ye hai ke dollar ko market mein support mila is khabar ki waja se. Kal ka din EUR/USD pair ke liye dohra negative tha, kyun ke Eurozone ki inflation data jo dopehar mein release hui, usne ye dikhaya ke annual inflation 2.1% tak gir gayi hai. 2% ka target ab qareeb hai, jo ye darshata hai ke ECB ko iss saal kai dafa rate cut karne ki zarurat parh sakti hai taake actual inflation levels ke sath match ho sake.



Doosri taraf, jab ke U.S. spending figures 2.4% hain, Fed ko rates lower karne mein significant upward momentum dekha hai, jo Federal Reserve (Fed) aur European Central Bank (ECB) dono ki monetary policy expectations ke tabadlon ki wajah se hai. Saal ke aghaz mein, pair ne 1.0600-1.0700 ke support area ke ird-gird consolidation dekha, jo March mein 1.0800 ke upar bullish breakout ka aghaz bana. Ye move aik musalsal rally ka aghaz tha, jahan pair ne 1.1000 ke qareeb resistance dekhi aur dobara recover kar ke 1.0900-1.1000 zone ko critical support bana diya. Euro ki strength ko Fed rate cut ke hawale se afwahon ne aur zyada fuel diya, jahan market ka lag sakta hai. Is waja se, EUR/USD ne hafta 1.1045 par khatam kiya, jo ye dikhata hai ke girawat abhi khatam nahi hui hai. EUR/USD currency pair ne 2024 mein significant upward momentum dekha hai, jo Federal Reserve (Fed) aur European Central Bank (ECB) dono ki monetary policy expectations ke tabadlon ki wajah se hai. Saal ke aghaz mein, pair ne 1.0600-1.0700 ke support area ke ird-gird consolidation dekha, jo March mein 1.0800 ke upar bullish breakout ka aghaz bana. Ye move aik musalsal rally ka aghaz tha, jahan pair ne 1.1000 ke qareeb resistance dekhi aur dobara recover kar ke 1.0900-1.1000 zone ko critical support bana diya. Euro ki strength ko Fed rate cut ke hawale se afwahon ne aur zyada fuel diya, jahan market ka consensus ye tha ke September meeting mein 25 basis point ka reduction ho sakta hai. Jab ke US Dollar ko briefly July PCE data ke unexpected strong figures ki wajah se support mila, lekin overall sentiment ab bhi rate cut ke haq mein hai. Is dauran, ECB ki potential policy tabdilon, jisme Eurozone ke economic concerns ko address karne ke liye rate cut ka zikr bhi shamil hai, ne bhi pair ki trajectory par asar dala hai, jo EUR/USD exchange rate dynamics ko aur zyada pechida bana raha hai.

**Trading Analysis Update Monday, September 09, 2024**

Is analysis ko anjaam dene ke liye maine kuch indicators ka sahara liya:

• 150-period Simple Moving Average
• 60-period Simple Moving Average
• MACD indicator (12,26,9)
• Relative Strength Index (RSI) 14 indicator

**Daily Timeframe Mein Movement:**

EURAUD currency pair ke daily timeframe par price movements ke development ko dekhte hue, guzishta hafte ke trading session mein isne ek upward trend dikhaya hai, jo ke ek significant range ke sath hai. Ye guzishta chand hafton ke bearish movement ka aik reversal hai, jisme kaafi lambay downward movements bane thay. Guzishta hafte, candlestick ka shape zyada tar upward direction mein tha aur daily opening price se zyada higher price par close hua. Ye condition aik moqa faraham kar sakti hai ke is hafte bhi prices dobara upar ja sakein. Aaj subah market 1.6610 ke price level par khuli, aur ab price thoda aur barh kar 1.66618 ke level tak pohnch gayi hai.

Is analysis ko mukammal karne ke liye, maine kuch support indicators ke signals ko dekhne ki koshish ki. **Relative Strength Index (14)** indicator par lime line nazar aayi jo pehle level 50 ke neeche thi, lekin ab ye is level ke upar aane mein kamiyab hui hai. **MACD indicator (12,26,9)** par dekha gaya ke histogram bar ki position abhi bhi zero level ke upar hai, aur iska size abhi bhi chhota hai, lekin yellow signal line ka direction bhi ab barh ne ke direction ko follow karne laga hai. Jabke candlestick ki position ab Simple Moving Average line se door hat kar upar badh rahi hai.

Technical readings ke natayej se kuch indicators bullish market signals de rahe hain.

Price Action Analysis: EUR/USD

Chalo ab hum EUR/USD currency pair ke price ka behavior discuss karte hain aur is se kya analysis kiya ja sakta hai. EUR/USD pair ke liye tumhara target jo 1.1374 ke aas paas hai, wo possible lagta hai, khaaskar jab aise moves zyada tareen broader fundamentals pe hotay hain. Yeh zaroori hai ke hum dekhein ke kaunse future events prices ko itna high le jaa sakte hain — shayad aane waale elections is mein role ada kar sakte hain, jo humein wahan tak trade karne ka mouqa dein bina kisi major chart disruptions ya invalid candle patterns ke. Main is broader projection se mutafiq hoon, lekin yaad rakho ke short term mein, khaaskar weekly aur daily charts pe, hum 1.1065 se neeche jaa sakte hain, shayad 1.1024 tak bhi. Filhaal, mera bias selling ki taraf hai, kyunki mujhe koi itna strong foundation nazar nahi aa raha jo pair ko significantly upar le ja sake, lekin yeh bhi kehna mushkil hai ke 100% sure hoon. Yeh levels sirf estimate hain, lekin main technical analysis pe focused hoon, aur jab tak trade 1.1111–1.1120 range ke neeche rehta hai, mera bias bearish move ki taraf hai.




Click image for larger version

Naam: eur.JPG
Dekha gaya: 0
Size: 45.0 KB
ID: 18487281

Abhi jo bearish formation EUR/USD mein Friday ko U.S. news ke baad chart pe bani thi, ho sakta hai ke yeh ek aam trap ho jo traders ko sell positions lene pe majboor kar rahi ho. Mashhoor rai ke bar'aks, agar yeh scenario market open hone ke baad khelta hai aur bohot se traders in zones mein heavily sell karna shuru kar dete hain, toh price unexpected tareeqay se upward move kar sakti hai. Trading volumes aur related indicators ko closely monitor karna zaroori hoga taake yeh dekha ja sake ke yeh "smart money" trap hai ya asal bearish signal jo mazeed declines ki taraf le jaega. Agar yeh waqai trap hai aur market reverse karta hai, toh hum initially recent highs ke upar ek rise dekh sakte hain jahan kaafi liquidity ikattha ho chuki hai. Agar scenario anticipated tareeqay se unfold hota hai, toh yeh liquidity poori tarah tap ho sakti hai, jo pair ko accumulation zone ke qareeb 1.0954 le ja sakti hai.

EUR/USD ka 30-minute chart aik range-bound market ko dikhata hai, jisme price key liquidity zones ke darmiyan move kar rahi hai aur 1.1150 level par significant resistance ka saamna kar rahi hai. Chart mein multiple liquidity levels aur fair value gaps (FVGs) highlight kiye gaye hain, jo pair ke haaliye price behavior par asar andaz hue hain. 19 August se pair ne ek strong upward movement shuru kiya, FVGs ko fill kiya aur daily liquidity (DLiq) ko capture kiya jab ke ye 1.1150 area ki taraf surge kar gaya. Magar jab price 26 August ke qareeb is level tak pohanchi, to isne bhaari resistance ka saamna kiya, jo ke 1.1150 zone par rejection se zahir hota hai. Ye corrective phase ka aghaz tha, jisme price retrace kar ke neeche ke liquidity gaps ko fill kiya, khaaskar 1.1100 level ke ird-gird.
September ke pehle haftay mein, pair aik tight range mein trade kar raha tha, 1.1150 resistance ke upar break karne mein muskilat ka samna tha. Is dauran, price ne bar-bar support levels 1.1050 se 1.1070 ke qareeb test kiya, jahan significant liquidity mojood thi. Is range mein FVGs aur DLiqs ka creation aur unka fill hona ye dikhata hai ke market mein kisi ek direction mein faisla kon momentum ki kami thi. 8 aur 9 September ko, price ne ek aur rally ki koshish ki aur 1.1150 resistance ko briefly break kiya, lekin jaldi se rejection ka samna karte hue price wapas 1.1080 level ki taraf gir gayi. Ye rejection 1.1150 zone ki importance ko reinforce karta hai, jab ke price ke is level ke upar gains sustain karne mein nakami is baat ki dalil hai ke market nayi bullish phase mein dakhil hone se guraiz kar rahi hai.



taraf shift kar sakta hai. Natijatan, EUR/USD 30-minute chart short-term mein neutral se bearish outlook ko zahir karta hai, jisme price ek defined range mein 1.1050 aur 1.1150 ke darmiyan hai. Pair ka 1.1150 resistance ke upar break na kar paana aur baar baar rejection ka samna is baat ka ishara hai ke sellers abhi tak control mein hain, aur market tab tak isi range mein trade kar sakti hai jab tak koi clear breakout
Filhal, price 1.1080 area ke ird-gird hover kar rahi hai, jo 1.1070 support ke thoda upar hai. Neeche ke multiple liquidity zones ki mojoodgi is baat ki taraf ishara karti hai ke agar price is level ke neeche break hoti hai, to mazeed downside ka rujhan 1.1050 aur shaayad 1.1000 level tak barh sakta hai. Upar ki taraf, 1.1100 aur 1.1150 levels critical resistance areas hain, aur 1.1150 ke upar sustained break bias ko dobara bullish ki taraf shift kar sakta hai. Natijatan, EUR/USD 30-minute chart short-term mein neutral se bearish outlook ko zahir karta hai, jisme price ek defined range mein 1.1050 aur 1.1150 ke darmiyan hai. Pair ka 1.1150 resistance ke upar break na kar paana aur baar baar rejection ka samna is baat ka ishara hai ke sellers abhi tak control mein hain, aur market tab tak isi range mein trade kar sakti hai jab tak koi clear breakout na ho jaye. Traders ko 1.1070 aur 1.1050 ke neeche potential breakdowns par nazar rakhni chahiye, jo mazeed declines ka rasta khol sakte hain, jab ke 1.1150 ke upar breakout bearish bias ko challenge karega.

**Price Action Analysis: EUR/USD**
Chaliye EUR/USD currency pair ke price behavior par baat karte hain aur isse kya analysis kiya ja sakta hai. EUR/USD pair ke liye, aapka 1.1374 ka target plausible lagta hai, khaaskar agar broader fundamentals ko madde nazar rakha jaye. Ye zaroori hai ke dekha jaye ke aane wale events kis tarah se prices ko itna upar le jaa sakte hain—shayad aane wale elections ka asar ho sakta hai, jo humein iss point tak trade karne ka moqa dega baghair kisi significant chart disruptions ya candle patterns ke invalid hone ke. Main is broader projection se muttafiq hoon, lekin short term mein, khaaskar weekly aur daily charts par, hum 1.1065 ke neeche jaa sakte hain, aur shaayad 1.1024 tak pohnch sakte hain. Filhaal, mera bias selling ki taraf hai, kyun ke mujhe abhi koi mazboot foundation nazar nahi aati jo pair ko significantly upar push kar sake, lekin koi bhi baat yaqeen se nahi keh sakti. Halanki ye levels andazay ke mutabiq hain, main technical analysis par focused hoon aur bearish move ko favour karta hoon jab tak trading 1.1111–1.1120 range ke neeche rehti hai.

Is waqt market band hai chutti ki wajah se. 1.0845 closing price thi. Guzishta hafte se prices aik narrow range mein fluctuate kar rahi hain. Is maheene market ne 1.0960 ka high hit kiya. Is maheene ka low 1.0745 support faraham karta hai. Agar price aane wale dinon mein support ki taraf wapas aati hai, to market cross karega taake naya support banaye. Market price ka resistance 1.0868 hai. Market price ka support 1.0941 hai. H4 time frame par agar candle support level ke upar close karti hai, to ek naya


support level banega. Agar support break hota hai aur ek naya support level ban jata hai, to is maheene ka solid support level tayyar hoga. Aaj ke chart ke bare mein baat karein, jo H1 time frame par tayyar kiya gaya hai, upar diye gaye diagram mein support aur resistance use kiye gaye hain. Guzishta hafte market price ne aik trend banaya, aur agar ye trend jaari rehta hai, to market price ek aur naya low bana sakti hai.

Euro ne trading week ke doran halka sa recovery dekha, aur 1.11 level tak pohnch gaya. Lekin, yeh movement kuch zyada impactful nahi thi, aur noisy price action ka shikaar thi. Yeh baat zaroori hai ke Federal Reserve ke interest rates ko jaldi cut karne ki ummeed hai, lekin 1.12 mark ke upar ek significant level of resistance hai. Is barrier ko todne ke liye kaafi effort ki zaroorat hogi, jo shayad euro ko near term mein sideways trade karne par majboor kare. Agar market 1.10 level ke neeche break hoti hai, to hum 200-week EMA ka test aur phir 1.09 support level tak movement dekh sakte hain.

Dusri taraf, agar euro resistance ko break karne mein kamiyab hota hai, to shayad 1.1240 level ko todne ke liye kai attempts ki zaroorat pade. Yeh area significant hai kyunki early 2022 mein yahan bade sell-off huye the. Federal Reserve aur European Central Bank ke interest rate decisions ke sath, market ka movement in policies ke outcomes par depend karta hai. Federal Reserve se expected rate cuts ki number abhi bhi uncertain hai, aur traders Fed ke September decision ke baad press conference, khas taur par Jerome Powell ke statement, ko closely watch karenge.

Filhal, euro apne trading range ke upar ke end ke qareeb hai jahan yeh kaafi saalon se trade kar raha hai. Technical aur fundamental factors ke madde nazar, significant gains achieve karna mushkil ho sakta hai jab tak economic conditions ya policy mein major shift na aaye. Ab ke liye, euro ko resistance levels aur cautious market sentiment se struggle karna pad sakta hai.

EUR/USD ne apni upward movement ko 1.1100 ke upar extend kiya hai, jabke US labor demand mein slow down ke asaar ne US Dollar par dabao dala hai. Sarmaiya kaar August ke US NFP ka intezaar kar rahe hain, ye jaan'ne ke liye ke kya July ka report sirf ek temporary rukawat thi ya ek bara masla shuru ho gaya hai. ECB se umeed hai ke wo is saal do dafa aur interest rates mein kami karega.
EUR/USD ne apni winning streak ko teesray consecutive trading session tak barqarar rakha hai, aur Friday ko 1.1120 ke qareebi aik naye weekly high par trade kar raha hai. Is currency pair ki mazbooti US Dollar ki kamzori ki wajah se hai. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki qeemat ko 6 bari currencies ke muqable mein track karta hai, 101.00 ke important support level ke neeche gir gaya hai.

US Dollar ki demand mein kami aane ki wajah July ke liye US JOLTS Job Openings data aur August ke liye ADP Employment data hai, jo is hafte ke aghaz mein release hue thay. In data ne labor market ki deteriorating conditions ka khauf aur gehra kar diya hai. Naye job vacancies 7.67 million aur private sector mein payrolls ka izafa sirf 99K raha, jo pichlay teen aur aadha saal ka sab se kam tha.

US ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data August ke liye behtar aaya, magar is se US Dollar ko koi khaas support nahi mila.

Labor demand ke slow hone ke asaar ne market expectations ko barhaya ke Federal Reserve (Fed) shayad interest rates ko tezi se kam karna shuru kare. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, Fed ke interest rates mein 50 basis points (bps) ki kami ka chance 34% se barh kar 41% ho gaya hai.

Interest rate path ke hawale se zyada maloomat ke liye, sarmaiya kaar August ke US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo 12:30 GMT par publish hoga. Expectation hai ke US employers 160K logon ko hire karenge, jo ke July ke 114K se zyada hai. Unemployment Rate bhi 4.3% se gir kar 4.2% hone ka andaza lagaya gaya hai.

Sarmaiya kaar US Average Hourly Earnings data par bhi tawajju denge, jo ke wage growth ka ek ahem mayar hai aur consumer spending ko mutasir karta hai. Umeed hai ke earnings July ke 3.6% se barh kar 3.7% ho gayi hain, aur monthly wage growth bhi 0.2% se barh kar 0.3% hone ka andaza hai.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD ne 1.1100 ke upar apne gains ko qaim rakha

EUR/USD ne apne aap ko 1.1100 ke qareebi round-level figure ke upar mazbooti se barqarar rakha hai. Short-term mein currency pair ka outlook mazboot hai, jabke ye 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke qareeb, 1.1055 par strong footing bana raha hai.

Lambi muddat ka outlook bhi bullish hai, jabke 50-day aur 200-day EMAs 1.0970 aur 1.0865 ke qareeb hain, aur dono lines upward slope par hain. Shared currency pair daily time frame mein Rising Channel breakout ko qaim rakhta hai.

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.00 ke neeche gir gaya hai, jabke 75.00 ke qareeb overbought tha.

Upside mein, recent high 1.1200 aur July 2023 ka high 1.1275 Euro bulls ka agla target ho sakta hai. Niche ki taraf, downside ko psychological support 1.1000 ke aas paas cushion milne ki umeed hai

EUR/USD currency pair mein iss hafta aik tezi se girawat dekhi gayi, jo ke North American session ke aghaz mein budh ke din 1.1039 ke crucial support level ke qareeb pohanch gayi. Yeh girawat tab aayi jab pair ne August 2024 mein aik naya year-to-date high 1.1203 par haasil kiya tha. Girawat ka badi wajah US Dollar (USD) ki wapsi hai, jo ke 2024 ke naye low se bounce back ho kar upar aa gaya. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke USD ki value ko chheh major currencies ke against measure karta hai, 101.30 ke qareeb pohanch gaya jab August ke mazid mazboot flash S&P Global PMI data release kiya gaya.

**EUR/USD ke Fundamentals:**

Federal Reserve ke latest Meeting Minutes se yeh maaloom hota hai ke July mein he rate cuts par guftagu ka aghaz ho gaya tha, jo ke September 18 ko kam az kam aik quarter-point cut ki umeedon ko mazid barhata hai. Market ke participants ab aik zyada bara 50 basis point cut ke liye ziada shart laga rahe hain, aur current estimates ke mutabiq, 40% chance hai ke yeh cut aane wale Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting mein ho sakta hai. Iss dauran, Pan-European Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data jo ke jumeraat ke din release hone wala hai, us mein yeh umeed hai ke EU Manufacturing aur Services PMIs mustahkam rahain ge, jo ke bil-tarteeb 45.8 aur 51.9 par hain.

US PMI business activity ka survey bhi jumeraat ko release hoga, jo ke Jackson Hole Symposium ke aghaz ke sath mutabiq hoga, aur yeh symposium poore weekend tak chalega. Market ka diyaan inn events par hoga, khas tor par agle hafte ke Federal Reserve ke Meeting Minutes par. Investors yeh dekh rahe hain ke kis tarah yeh discussions market trends par asarandaz ho sakte hain, khas tor par Jackson Hole ki guftagu ke zariye.

**Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:**

Yeh pair 1.1075 tak gir gaya hai jab ke recent annual high 1.1204 ko barqarar rakhne mein naakam raha. Yeh chaar din ki winning streak ka ikhtitam tha, halaan ke pair ab bhi kafi strong hai aur apne year-to-date peak 1.1203 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai. Likhne ke waqt, yeh pair lagatar teen din tak 1.1070 ke level ko barqarar rakhe hue hai.



Daily chart ka tajziya karte hue, EUR/USD ke 1.1100 mark ko test karne ka potential hai. Agar yeh level successfully break ho gaya, toh yeh July 18, 2023 ke peak 1.1274 tak ja sakta hai, aur mumkin hai ke yeh 1.1300 ka level bhi chhu le. Relative Strength Index (RSI), jo ke recently 70 level se upar chala gaya hai, yeh suggest karta hai ke buyers ko momentum mil raha hai. Magar, extreme RSI readings se yeh maaloom hota hai ke 80 ka level overbought samjha jayega, jo ke current uptrend ke peak par pohanchne ka ishara karta hai.

EUR/USD karansi joṛ ko Thursday ki Asian trading session ke doran halka sa nuqsan hua, jo zyada tar US dollar ki mazbooti aur US Treasury bonds ke zyada returns ke waja se tha. Magar, dollar kamzor ho gaya jab July ke liye Jolts job openings report ko jaari kiya gaya, jo umeedon se neeche rahi, aur yeh labor market mein ahista ahista slowdown ka izhaar karti hai. Traders ab US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) aur initial jobless claims ke release ka intezaar kar rahe hain. Is ke ilawa, Jumay ko jaari hone wali non-farm payrolls report se Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts ke imkaanaat par mazeed maloomat milengi. Atlanta ke Federal Reserve Bank ke sarbaraah Rafael Postic ne monetary policy par neutral nazariya izhaar kiya, aur kaha ke Fed ka mauqaf acha hai lekin mazid waqat tak restrictive policies ka istemal nahi karna chahiye.
** Eurozone mein, consumer price index (CPI) July mein 0.8% quarterly base par barha, jabke services PMI aur composite PMI kamzor ho gaye. Yeh data is baat ki nishani hain ke European Central Bank (ECB) September mein interest rates kam kar sakti hai, jo euro par dabao daal sakti hai. EUR/USD joṛ filhal 20-day simple moving average (SMA) aur 1.1050 ke support area ke qareeb hai. Technical indicators jaise ke Stochastic Index aur Relative Strength Index behtari ka izhaar kar rahe hain. Agar 1.1050 ke level ko break kiya jata hai, to 1.1200 ke pehle peak ko challenge karne ka imkaan hai, aur ho sakta hai ke July 2023 ka buland hadf 1.1275 bhi test kiya jaye. Neeche ki taraf, agar mazid girawat hoti hai, to 1.0870 ka target ho sakta hai, aur us ke baad 200-day moving average 1.0850 par. Agar qeemat neeche jati hai aur 1.1100 ke neeche close hoti hai, to 20-day SMA, jo ke qareeb 1.1000 par hai, tak girawat ho sakti hai. Agar qeemat girti hai, to tamaam nazrein July 2023 ke broken resistance trendline aur 50% Fibonacci level 1.0940 par ho sakti hain. 50-aur 200-day SMAs jo ke 1.0880 aur 1.0845 par hain, girawat ko rokne ka kaam kar sakte hain. Agar aisa nahi hota, to selling pressure barh sakta hai aur qeemat ko 1.0725 tak le ja