یورپی ڈالر بمقابلہ امریکی ڈالر

Currency pair ne 1.1150 tak kuch waqt ke liye bulandiyon ka saamna kiya, lekin phir se apne aam range 1.1204 ke aas-paas wapas aa gaya, aur 2024 ka naya high set karne ka mauka chhod diya. Market ki ummeedein bharak gayi thi, investors ko lag raha tha ke Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts jaldi implement kar sakta hai. Sab se zyada speculation is baat ke aas-paas hai ke shayad September mein double rate cut ho sakta hai, jo currency fluctuations ko heavily influence kar raha hai. Eurozone ki Economic Data ne Aage ke Rate Cuts ki Umeedein Kam Kar Di: Eurozone ke economic indicators ne is saal additional interest rate cuts ke liye umeedein kam kar di hain. Inflation data expected se zyada aaya hai, jahan Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) July mein 2.6% saal-on-saal badh gaya, jabke consensus estimate 2.4% tha. Core HICP, jo food aur energy jese volatile items ko exclude karta hai, 2.9% tak barh gaya, jabke expected 2.8% tha. Ye figures Eurozone ke mazboot economic conditions ko highlight karti hain aur further rate reductions ki ummeedon ka dobara jaiza lene par majboor karti hain.

EUR/USD ki Correction Limited Hai Jabke Mazboot German Data Euro ko Support De Raha Hai:

EUR/USD mein recent correction itni substantial ya tez nahi dikhayi gayi. German economic data, khaaskar June ke Factory Orders, ne Euro ko support diya hai. Jabke June mein 0.8% month-over-month increase ki expectations thi, jo May mein 1.6% ki kami ke baad thi, actual data ne forecasts ko piche chhod diya aur 3.9% ka izafa dikhaya. Ye strong performance Eurozone economy ki resilience ko dikhata hai aur Euro ki position ko support karta hai.

D1 Chart ke Key Technical Levels aur Resistance Points ko Dekhein:

1.1203 ka mark ek significant resistance point raha hai jahan buyers ne pehle step in kiya hai. Agar is level se upar successful rally hoti hai, to December ki peak 1.1139 par dhyan jaa sakta hai. Agar Fed koi achanak emergency rate cut implement karta hai, to market conditions volatile ho sakti hain aur 1.1277 tak ka move bhi mumkin ho sakta hai.

Lekin, pair ne kuch resistance ka saamna kiya hai, khaaskar Monday ko 1.10 ke upar thodi der ke liye spike ke baad. Is level ne strong selling pressure dekha, jo ek critical descending trend line ke neeche retreat kar gaya. Pair ko agle bullish leg ke liye strength build karni hai, ise solid support milna zaroori hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) overbought territory ke qareeb hai, jo suggest karta hai ke ek pullback zaroori ho sakta hai pehle ke kisi potential rally ke momentum gain karne se pehle

ستمبر 6 2024 کو یورو/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

آج کا دن امریکہ میں روزگار کے اعداد و شمار کے اجراء کے ساتھ مارکیٹ میں کرنسی کی شرحوں کی درمیانی اور طویل مدتی سمتوں کی تشکیل کے اہم دنوں میں سے ایک ہے۔ فیڈرل ریزرو کے چیئر جیروم پاول کے ملازمت کی طرف توجہ مبذول کرنے کے بارے میں بیان نے گزشتہ ڈیڑھ سال میں سرمایہ کاروں کی بے چینی کو بلند ترین سطح پر پہنچا دیا ہے۔ اس گھبراہٹ کو مقداری طور پر اتار چڑھاؤ کے اختیارات سے ماپا جاتا ہے، جسے تاجروں نے پچھلے 18 مہینوں کے دوران سب سے بڑی مقدار میں گھیر لیا ہے، اور ایس. اینڈ. پی. 500 vix انڈیکس، جس نے ہفتے کے دوران 33 فیصد اضافہ کیا۔ اس کے علاوہ، 5 سالہ یو ایس ٹریژری بانڈز کی پیداوار ایک ہفتے میں 3.65 فیصد سے کم ہو کر 3.53 فیصد پر آگئی، جس سے ظاہر ہوتا ہے کہ سرمایہ کار خطرے سے دور ہو رہے ہیں۔ اور یہ سب مارکیٹ میں باقی یورو پر لمبی پوزیشنوں کی ایک بڑی مقدار کے ساتھ۔ اس سے پہلے، ہم نے کہا تھا کہ اگر بڑے کھلاڑی مارکیٹ کو ڈالر کی عالمی مضبوطی کی طرف موڑنا چاہتے ہیں، تو روزگار کے اعداد و شمار ایک آسان بہانہ فراہم کرتے ہیں، خاص طور پر جمع شدہ یورو کی خریداری کے درمیان فیڈ کی شرح میں دوہری کمی کے جنون کے درمیان۔ تاریخی طور پر، یہ معاملہ رہا ہے کہ محکمہ محنت کی طرف سے شائع کردہ روزگار کے اعداد و شمار، اگر مارکیٹ پر اثر انداز ہونے کی ضرورت ہو، حقیقت کی عکاسی نہیں کرتے اور صرف 1-2 ماہ کے بعد ایک متوازن حالت میں ایڈجسٹ کیے جاتے ہیں۔

[ATTACH=JSON]n13118310[/ATTACH]

کل کے کمزور اے. ڈی. پی. ڈیٹا کے باوجود جو کہ پیشن گوئی کی گئی 144,000 کے مقابلے میں ملازمتوں میں 99,000 کا اضافہ دکھا رہا ہے، ہم غیر فارم پے رولز اور بے روزگاری کی شرح سے اچھے نتائج کی توقع رکھتے ہیں (جولائی میں 4.3% کے مقابلے میں 4.2% پر پیش گوئی کی گئی ہے)۔ ہم اس کی بنیاد بے روزگاری کے فوائد حاصل کرنے والے لوگوں کی کل تعداد کے اشارے پر رکھتے ہیں، جو گزشتہ پانچ ہفتوں کے دوران 1.875 ملین سے کم ہو کر 1.838 ملین ہو گئی ہے۔ یومیہ چارٹ ظاہر کرتا ہے کہ قیمت 1.1085 پر سپورٹ لیول سے اوپر سمٹی ہوئی ہے۔ آج کے اتار چڑھاؤ کو دیکھتے ہوئے، قیمت آسانی سے 1.1140 کے ہدف کی سطح کو عبور کر کے 1.1010 کی طرف بڑھ سکتی ہے۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر، جس نے پہلے ہی نیچے کی طرف پلٹنا شروع کر دیا ہے، اس طرح کے منظر نامے کی تجویز کرتا ہے۔

[ATTACH=JSON]n13118311[/ATTACH]

٤- گھنٹے کا چارٹ خریداری کی طرف قلیل مدتی دلچسپی میں تبدیلی کو ظاہر کرتا ہے، کیونکہ قیمت بیلنس لائن سے اوپر چلی گئی ہے لیکن ابھی تک ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن اور 1.1140 کے ہدف کی سطح کے اوپر مضبوط ہونا باقی ہے۔ ہم امریکی لیبر ڈیٹا کے اجراء کا انتظار کر رہے ہیں۔

.تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

pair ne Wednesday ko kya kiya? Yeh apne upward movement ko continue kiya. Din bhar mein, sirf ek report publish hui thi Nonfarm Payrolls ki annual revision ke bare mein, jo ki forecasts se bhi worse nikli. Asal mein, agar yeh expected se better bhi hoti, toh dollar phir bhi fall karta. Monday aur Tuesday ko, dollar ko macroeconomic backdrop ki zaroorat nahi thi apne decline ko sustain karne ke liye. Toh, yeh kehna mushkil nahi hai ki U.S. labor market ke ek aur weak report ne U.S. currency ko further fall kar diya. Lekin, U.S. dollar daily fall raha hai, regardless of these reports, aur correct bhi nahi kar pa raha hai. Nonfarm Payrolls report previously published reports ki correction nahi hai; yeh sirf annual figure ki adjustment hai. Market ne pehle weaker monthly reports ko account kiya, phir annual one ko, jo ki essentially same data ko reflect karta hai. Abhi traders ko sirf ek sawal puchna chahiye ki yeh relentless rise kab tak continue karega. Upside par trading easy, simple, aur convenient lagta hai, lekin sirf first glance par, kyunki traders likely samajhte hain ki euro almost out of the blue rise kar raha hai. Isliye, yeh movement kisi bhi moment par end ho sakta hai. Currency ko buy karna jab aapko nahi pata ki yeh kyun rise kar raha hai, yeh pleasant task nahi hai. Phir bhi, uptrend ke ending ke signs nahi hain, price continue rise kar sakti hai 1.1185 aur 1.1234 ke targets ke sath. Wednesday ko, sirf ek trading signal forma hua - U.S. trading session mein 1.1137 level surpass hua. Din ke end par, euro sirf 15 pips rise kiya, lekin volatility currently low hai, aur movement one-sided hai. Yeh trade Thursday tak hold ki ja sakti hai 1.1185 ke target ke sath.

EUR/USD hourly time frame mein steady aur measured upward movement sustain kar raha hai. Last week, new U.S. inflation reports ne market ko dollar ko sell karne ka ek aur reason diya. Is week, market Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell se dovish rhetoric expect kar raha hai. Market har available opportunity ko seize kar raha hai dollar ko sell karne ke liye. Ab humare paas do ascending trendlines hain, jo ki euro ko support kar rahe hain. General mein, k

Currency pair ne 1.1150 tak kuch waqt ke liye bulandiyon ka saamna kiya, lekin phir se apne aam range 1.1204 ke aas-paas wapas aa gaya, aur 2024 ka naya high set karne ka mauka chhod diya. Market ki ummeedein bharak gayi thi, investors ko lag raha tha ke Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts jaldi implement kar sakta hai. Sab se zyada speculation is baat ke aas-paas hai ke shayad September mein double rate cut ho sakta hai, jo currency fluctuations ko heavily influence kar raha hai. Eurozone ki Economic Data ne Aage ke Rate Cuts ki Umeedein Kam Kar Di: Eurozone ke economic indicators ne is saal additional interest rate cuts ke liye umeedein kam kar di hain. Inflation data expected se zyada aaya hai, jahan Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) July mein 2.6% saal-on-saal badh gaya, jabke consensus estimate 2.4% tha. Core HICP, jo food aur energy jese volatile items ko exclude karta hai, 2.9% tak barh gaya, jabke expected 2.8% tha. Ye figures Eurozone ke mazboot economic conditions ko highlight karti hain aur further rate reductions ki ummeedon ka dobara jaiza lene par majboor karti hain.
EUR/USD ki Correction Limited Hai Jabke Mazboot German Data Euro ko Support De Raha Hai:

EUR/USD mein recent correction itni substantial ya tez nahi dikhayi gayi. German economic data, khaaskar June ke Factory Orders, ne Euro ko support diya hai. Jabke June mein 0.8% month-over-month increase ki expectations thi, jo May mein 1.6% ki kami ke baad thi, actual data ne forecasts ko piche chhod diya aur 3.9% ka izafa dikhaya. Ye strong performance Eurozone economy ki resilience ko dikhata hai aur Euro ki position ko support karta hai.

D1 Chart ke Key Technical Levels aur Resistance Points ko Dekhein:

1.1203 ka mark ek significant resistance point raha hai jahan buyers ne pehle step in kiya hai. Agar is level se upar successful rally hoti hai, to December ki peak 1.1139 par dhyan jaa sakta hai. Agar Fed koi achanak emergency rate cut implement karta hai, to market conditions volatile ho sakti hain aur 1.1277 tak ka move bhi mumkin ho sakta hai.

Lekin, pair ne kuch resistance ka saamna kiya hai, khaaskar Monday ko 1.10 ke upar thodi der ke liye spike ke baad. Is level ne strong selling pressure dekha, jo ek critical descending trend line ke neeche retreat kar gaya. Pair ko agle bullish leg ke liye strength build karni hai, ise solid support milna zaroori hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) overbought territory ke qareeb hai, jo suggest karta hai ke ek pullback zaroori ho sakta hai pehle ke kisi potential rally ke momentum gain karne se pehle

Symposium mein shanasaai ne September mein interest rate cut ke intezaar ko mazid barha diya, jis se euro ki attraction mein izafa hua. Jab ke euro front par zyada economic events nahi the, traders ne Federal Reserve ke Governor Christopher Waller ke letters aur European Union ke euro group meeting par zyada tawajju di. US GDP ke liye doosri quarter mein 2.8% ki annual basis par wohi pehle wali rate rehne ki umeed thi. Magar is hafte ka primary focus July ke Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data par tha. Market ke participants eagerly umeed lagaaye baithe the ke inflation data expectations se kam aayega, jo ke rate cut ki umeed ko barha sakta hai. Dosri taraf, agar data expectations se zyada hota hai, toh market mein dobara se volatility aa sakti hai. EUR/USD pair ki price ab bhi simple moving average zone of period 100 ke upar stable chal rahi hai jo ke ek Uptrend market situation ko darsha rahi hai. Pichle hafte market ke halaat upward trend ke saath the jo ke pichle mahine ke bullish trend ke mutabiq the. Mahine ke shuruat mein price increase ne candlestick ko 1.1202 ke position tak pohcha diya. Is mahine ka price increase kaafi zyada lagta hai, lekin trading session ke last night mein ye barhawa continue nahi ho saka kyun ke market mein correction ho rahi thi. Aaj subah tak price uptrend zone mein move karne ki koshish kar raha tha. Tuesday raat ko price upar jaane ki koshish kar raha tha magar weekly price opening ko cross nahi kar saka. Magar, raat ke increase ke saath price ke mazeed ooper jaane ki umeed aur chance barh jata hai kyun ke correction ka momentum, jo aam tor par bullish trend ko lamba karta hai, uss se madad milti hai. Aaj tak price ki journey monthly opening price zone se door chal rahi hai jo ke 1.0824 ke position par thi. Mere khayal mein, ho sakta hai ke candlestick ab bhi upar move karna chahti hai jaise pichle hafte ka market trend tha. EUR/USD pair mein market situation ab active hoti nazar aa rahi hai, halan ke buyers ki efforts price ko barhane ke liye abhi tak itni strong nahi hain. Ho sakta hai ke market jab American session mein aayega toh koi mukhtalif situation samne aaye. Is hafte ke trading mein achi opportunities dhoondhne ke liye yeh trading reference diya jaa raha hai ke jab bullish direction ka continuation mazid strong hota naza

Hello everyone, yeh hai EUR/USD currency pair ka technical analysis H4 chart par:

1. Current Price: Is waqt EUR/USD ka rate 1.114 par hai.
2. Moving Averages:
   • Yeh pair MA50 aur MA200 ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo ke short-term aur medium-term mein bullish trend ko tasleem karta hai.
3. Support aur Resistance Levels:
   • Support: Sabse qareebi support level 1.110 par hai. Agar price is level ke neeche break karti hai, to mazeed girawat 1.105 ki taraf ho sakti hai.
   • Resistance: Ahm resistance 1.115 ke level par hai. Agar is level ke upar breakout hota hai, to mazeed growth ke imkanaat hain, jo 1.120 ki taraf barh sakti hai.
4. Indicators:
   • RSI lagbhag 60 par hai, jo overbought conditions ko darshata nahi, is ka matlab yeh hai ke aur barhne ki gunjaish ab bhi hai.
   • MACD bullish signal ko support kar raha hai, jahan histogram zero line ke upar hai, jo mazeed bullish momentum ko dikhata hai.
5. Conclusion: Maujooda surat-e-haal abhi tak bullish hai, aur agar price support levels ke upar barqarar rehti hai, to uptrend ka silsila jari rehne ke imkanaat hain. Ahm level 1.115 ko gaur se monitor karna zaroori hai, kyun ke yeh point aage ke dynamics ko tay karega.EUR/USD ka current price 1.114 hai. Pair MA50 aur MA200 ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo short-term aur medium-term bullish trend ko confirm karta hai. Support level 1.110 par hai, aur agar price iske neeche jaati hai to girawat 1.105 tak ho sakti hai. Resistance 1.115 par hai, jisme break ke baad 1.120 ki taraf growth ka imkaan hai. RSI 60 par hai, jo aur barhne ki gunjaish dikhata hai, aur MACD bullish signal ko support karta hai. Agar price support ke upar rehti hai, to uptrend jari reh sakta hai.

picture ko thora revise kiya EUR/USD mein Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi be


ars nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.1237 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon, lekin sirf unsuccessful consolidation ke baad. Main short positions foran rebound par 1.1274 se kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki downward correction ka target rakhte

**Hello doston, aaj hum EUR/USD currency pair ka H4 chart par technical analysis karenge. Yeh analysis aapko currency pair ke current trend aur potential movements ko samajhne mein madad karega.**

**1. Current Price: 1.114**

Is waqt EUR/USD currency pair 1.114 ke level par trading kar raha hai. Yeh level short-term aur medium-term trend ko samajhne mein ek ahem point hai. Ab hum moving averages, support aur resistance levels, aur technical indicators ko detail mein dekhenge.

**2. Moving Averages:**

EUR/USD pair filhal MA50 (50-period Moving Average) aur MA200 (200-period Moving Average) ke upar trading kar raha hai. MA50 aur MA200 ke upar rehna bullish trend ko confirm karta hai. MA50 short-term trend ko reflect karta hai, jabke MA200 medium-term trend ko. Agar pair MA50 aur MA200 ke upar trade kar raha hai, to iska matlab hai ke short-term aur medium-term dono perspectives se bullish trend hai. Yeh bullish trend market mein aage chal kar price ki growth ko indicate karta hai.

**3. Support aur Resistance Levels:**

- **Support**: Sabse nazdeek support level 1.110 par hai. Agar price is level se niche girti hai, to yeh further decline ko indicate kar sakti hai aur price 1.105 tak gir sakti hai. Support levels market ke stability ko determine karte hain aur jab price support level ke niche girti hai, to market mein bearish sentiment dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

- **Resistance**: Key resistance level 1.115 par hai. Agar price is level ko break karti hai, to yeh further growth ko indicate karta hai aur price 1.120 tak bhi pohnch sakti hai. Resistance levels woh points hain jahan price ko rokne ki koshish hoti hai aur breakout ke case mein price aage barh sakti hai.

**4. Indicators:**

- **RSI (Relative Strength Index)**: RSI filhal 60 ke aas-paas hai. Yeh overbought conditions ko indicate nahi karta, aur iska matlab hai ke market mein aur growth ki room hai. RSI ek momentum indicator hai jo price ke momentum ko measure karta hai aur bullish signals ko confirm karta hai.

- **MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)**: MACD bhi bullish signal ko support karta hai. MACD histogram zero line ke upar hai, jo bullish momentum ko indicate karta hai aur price ke upward movement ko support karta hai.

**5. Conclusion:**

Current situation bullish hai, aur agar price support levels ke upar rehti hai, to uptrend continue hone ke chances hain. 1.115 ka level ek key point hai jo further price dynamics ko determine karega. Agar price is level ko break karti hai, to EUR/USD currency pair mein further growth dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Yeh analysis aapko market ki current situation ko samajhne aur trading decisions lene mein madad karega. [Attached chart dekhein]

Yeh detailed analysis EUR/USD currency pair ke future movements aur trading opportunities ko samajhne mein aapki madad karega.

**Assalam-o-Alaikum doston, aur trading week ke khatam hone ki dua!**

Aaj ke non-farm data mixed raha. Employment indicators forecast se kuch kharab the, magar ye figures purani figures se behtar thi aur forecast bhi kaafi overestimated tha. Lekin ek achi baat yeh hui ke unemployment rate kam ho gaya, jo ke forecast ke saath match karta hai aur yeh ek acha nishaan hai. Is natije mein, EURUSD pair ne apna local maximum, jo ke resistance level 1.1139 hai, phir se test kiya, lekin 1.1169 tak nahi pohnch paaya aur wapas ho gaya.

Aage bhi wahi scenarios hain jo pehle the. Agar price 1.1108 ke neeche consolidate hoti hai, to main expect karta hoon ke price ka decline aage barhega aur support levels 1.1078 - 1.1047 ki taraf jaayega, aur wahan se upar ki taraf attempt karega. Aaj ke liye niche dekhna bekaar hai. Agar price 1.1078 tak pohnchti hai, to yeh sellers ke liye acha hoga.

Warna, main ek aur attempt expect karta hoon resistances 1.1139 - 1.1154 aur 1.1169 ko test karne ke liye. Agar price in levels ko test karti hai aur phir wapas niche aati hai, to yeh ek bounce ka indication ho sakta hai. General taur par, aaj ke din ko close hone ka intezaar karna behtar hoga aur phir naye haftay ke trading opportunities ke baare mein sochna chahiye.

Trading decisions ko aaj ke closing ke baad finalize karna zyada behtar hoga. Isse humein naye haftay ke liye achi planning karne ka waqt milega aur trading strategies ko naye market conditions ke hisaab se adjust kiya ja sakta hai. Market ka trend aur price movements ko samajhne ke liye, closing ke baad analysis karna zaroori hai. Yeh bhi zaroori hai ke har trade ko apne risk management rules ke saath plan kiya jaye taake unnecessary losses se bacha ja sake.

Aap sabko trading mein achi luck aur kamiyabi ki dua! Allah aapko har qadam par madad faraham kare aur aapke trades ko faida de. Shukriya aur duaon ka talabgar.

**Hello Everyone,**

Theek hai, ab diapers hataane ka waqt aa gaya hai. Unhein mubarak ho jo ameer hue hain. Kuch paise kamaye hain ek can sprats aur ek bottle vodka ke liye.

Ab, mere khayal se humne ek tezi se news-driven downturn dekha hai jo ideally further confirm hona chahiye. Asal mein, humne kal ke lower boundary ko 1.1075 ke aas-paas break kiya. Abhi price 1.1065 pe mark hai, aur hum thoda aur neeche bhi ja sakte hain, lekin principle clear hai. Humein ek pullback ka intezar karna hoga upar ki taraf, mere hisaab se ye 1.1110 - 1.1120 ke aas-paas ho sakta hai, jo ke future southward movement ke liye normal hoga. Ho sakta hai ke America mein isse upar push kiya jaye, phir wapas pullback ho aur dry out ho jaye. Yeh aksar Fridays ko hota hai agar week ke doran high volatility rahi ho.

Humne upar 1.1154 tak pohncha - yeh southern dreams ka end hai. Upar ke level pe pohnchne ke baad, hum ab zyada southward movement ki ummeed kar sakte hain. Market ka ye behavior FOMC meeting ke 18 September ke aas-paas ek significant decline ka indication ho sakta hai. Aam taur par, market aise periods mein corrective moves ya consolidation patterns dekhta hai, jo ke agle badi movement ka signal hota hai.

Ab jab ke pullback hone ki ummeed hai, traders ko short-term movements pe nazar rakhni hogi. 1.1110 - 1.1120 ke aas-paas ka level ek achha point ho sakta hai jahan se price phir se southward direction le sakti hai. Is pullback ke dauran, buying pressure ho sakti hai, lekin yeh temporary ho sakta hai. Long-term perspective se, market ki southward trend ab bhi intact hai aur isme further declines dekhne ko mil sakte hain.

Yeh situation Friday ko aur zyada interesting ho sakti hai, agar week ke doran high volatility hui ho. Aise cases mein, market tend to react strongly towards the end of the week. FOMC meeting ke aas-paas, jo ke monetary policy aur economic outlook ko determine karegi, ek major catalyst ho sakti hai jo market ko further direction de sakta hai.

Overall, market ki situation ko dekhte hue, pullback ke baad southward movement ka intezar karna hoga. Traders ko alert rehna hoga aur market ke changes ko closely monitor karna hoga. Yeh time frame market ke trends aur movements ko samajhne ke liye crucial hai aur aage ki trading strategies ko decide karne mein madad karega.

Yeh meri current assumption hai, aur is par aage ka analysis karna zaroori hai.

Technical analysis of the EURUSD pair

Pichle do hafton ke doran, ek ooncha lehr banayi gayi, phir ek neeche wali lehr aayi, aur is hafte se qeemat 4-ghante ke chart par dikhaye gaye price channels ke andar trade kar rahi hai. Is hafte ke aghaz par qeemat ne neelay channel line ke neeche se support mila, aur laal channel tooti, phir weekly pivot level ki taraf gayi, jahan ab qeemat stable hai aur upar ki taraf chal rahi hai. Yeh aksar upar ki trend ka signal deti hai.

Isliye, jab qeemat weekly pivot level ke nazdeek aayegi, to yeh mumkin hai ke qeemat ko phir se upar ki taraf support mile aur is hafte ka close positive ho, jo agle hafte mein mazeed izafa la sakta hai.

Economic side se, euro ki qeemat ko support milega kyunke European Central Bank consecutive interest rate cuts se bachne ki koshish kar raha hai. ECB policymakers ke mutabiq, October mein rate cut hone ke chances kam hain. Yeh agle hafton mein euro ke interest rates ke liye mazeed support faraham kar sakta hai. Latest central bank ki communications ka tajziya karne se yeh pata chalta hai ke European Central Bank September mein interest rates cut karega lekin October mein consecutive cut se bach jayega.

Pichle do hafton mein humne kai ECB Governing Council members se suna hai, jinhone September move par market ki ummedon ko dohraate hue October move ke liye ehtiyaat baratne ko kaha. “ECB ki aakhri rhetoric October mein agle cut ke liye ek significant rukawat ko darshati hai, jabke September mein aasan ho sakti hai,” HSBC ke currency analysts ka note kehta hai.

**EUR/USD Pair Analysis**

**Daily Chart Analysis**

EUR/USD pair ne recent sessions mein notable activity dikhayi hai, jahan traders technical signals aur economic indicators ke hawale se react kar rahe hain. Abhi pair 1.1110 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai, jo ek naya 13-month high 1.1203 ke paas hit kar chuka hai. Yeh US Dollar ki broad weakness aur Federal Reserve (Fed) policies ke future speculation ki wajah se hua hai.

Daily chart ko dekhen to EUR/USD pair ne pichle kuch hafton mein remarkable strength dikhayi hai. August maheenay mein euro kaafi strong raha hai, aur is mahine mein pair ne 3% se zyada ki appreciation dikhayi hai. Yeh surge pair ko 2024 ke highest levels ke kareeb le aayi hai. Daily chart par ek clear breakout dekha gaya hai jo channel formation se hua hai, jo ek strong signal hai ke pair uptrend mein hai. Sab key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) alag-alag time frames (short-term, medium-term, aur long-term) par upar ki taraf hain. Yeh EMAs ka alignment confirm karta hai ke pair well-supported hai aur overall trend bullish hai.

Resistance ki baat karein to pair 1.1141 par ek significant barrier face kar raha hai, jo late December 2023 ka highest level tha. Agar yeh level breach ho jata hai, to agla target 1.1204 mark hoga, jo psychologically important number hai. Downside par, 1.1050 ek crucial support level hai, aur 1.0951 deeper support hai jo traders monitor karenge agar pair apni current gains ko reverse kare.

**Hourly Chart Evaluation**

Hourly chart par, pair ne critical support level 1.1050 ke upar apni position maintain ki hui hai, jo ek strong bullish trend ko indicate karta hai. Recently, EUR/USD ne 1.1110 level ko break kiya, jo clear upward movement ko dikhata hai. Lekin, yeh note karna zaroori hai ke is rally ke bawajood, pair ne consistently is level ko upar nahi rakha, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke current highs ko maintain karne mein struggle ho sakta hai. Pair ne ek "quasi bearish harami" pattern bhi form kiya hai, jo ek two-candle formation hota hai jo uptrend mein hesitation ko signal karta hai. Is formation ke bawajood, bulls ne price ko significantly neeche nahi push kiya, matlab overall market sentiment cautiously optimistic hai. Agar pair 1.1150 ke upar break kar sakta hai, to yeh uptrend ke continuation ko signal kar sakta hai. Hourly chart par 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60 aur 80 ke beech fluctuate kar raha hai, jo strong bullish momentum ko indicate karta hai lekin overbought conditions ke kareeb bhi hai. RSI ne overbought territory se exit kar liya hai, jo suggest karta hai ke jabke pair ke pass climb karne ki jagah hai, traders ko potential pullback ka khayal rakhna chahiye

Fundamental Analysis

EUR/USD pair teen din se barh raha hai aur Friday ko ek naye weekly high 1.1120 ke qareeb close kiya. US Dollar ki extreme kamzori shared currency pair ko achi gains dene mein madadgar hai. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke US dollar ki qeemat ko chhe aham currencies ke muqablay mein measure karta hai, ab bhi 101.00 ke critical support level ke neeche decline kar raha hai.

Is hafte ke shuru mein US JOLTS Job Openings data for July aur ADP Employment data for August ke publication ke baad, jo labor market ke halat ko lekar concerns barhaane wale the, US dollar ki attractiveness kam hui hai. Private sector mein naye positions ki number 7.67 million aur payroll increases 99K the. Ye figures lagbhag teen aur aadhe saalon mein sabse kam hain.

Halanke US ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report for August ne expectations ko exceed kiya, lekin US Dollar ko support nahi mili. Market ko lag raha tha ke Federal Reserve (Fed) dheere dheere interest rates ko kam karna shuru kar dega labor market ke sluggish hone ke indication ke response mein. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, Fed ke interest rates ko 50 basis points (bps) se kam karne ki probability, jo pehle 34% thi, ab 41% tak barh gayi hai.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD exchange rate 1.1100 ke round-level number ke upar stable hai. Leading currency pair ka short-term outlook unchanged hai, jo 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas-paas, yaani 1.1055 ke aas-paas stabilize ho raha hai. 50-day aur 200-day EMAs, jo 1.0970 aur 1.0865 ke aas-paas upward trend dikha rahe hain, ye indicate karte hain ke longer-term view bhi positive hai. Daily time level par, shared currency pair bhi Rising Channel breakthrough ko maintain kar raha hai.

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI 75.00 ke aas-paas overbought ho gaya tha aur ab 60.00 ke neeche aa gaya hai. Euro ke bulls ke liye agle targets upar ki taraf 1.1200 aur July 2023 ka high 1.1275 honge. Niche ke movement ko psychological support level 1.1000 ke paas roknay ki umeed hai.

Technical analysis of the EURUSD pair

Pichle do hafton ke doran, ek ooncha leher ban gaya, phir ek neecha leher aaya, aur is hafte ke dauran price 4 ghante ke chart par dikhaye gaye price channels mein trade kar rahi hai. Shuruat mein price ko neelay channel line se support mila, aur laal channel break ho gaya, phir weekly pivot level ki taraf barh gaya, jahan ab price stable hai, jo ke upar ki trend ke kai signals de raha hai.

Isliye, jab price phir se weekly pivot level ke qareeb aati hai, to mumkin hai ke price ko support mile aur phir se upar barhe. Is haftay ke closing kaafi positive hone ki umeed hai aur agle hafte mein further increases dekhne ko mil sakti hain.

Economic side par, euro price ko support milta rahega kyun ke European Central Bank successive interest rate cuts se bachne ki tayari kar raha hai. ECB policymakers ke mutabiq, October mein rate cut ki chances kam hain. Yeh euro ke interest rates ko agle hafton mein further support de sakta hai. ECB ke aakhri communications ke mutabiq, ECB September mein interest rates cut karega lekin October mein successive cut ko chhod dega.

Pichle do hafton mein ECB Governing Council ke kuch members ne kaha ke September mein rate cut ke market bets ko reiterate kiya hai, jabke October ke move ko caution karte hain. HSBC ke currency analysts ke mutabiq, “ECB ki latest rhetoric kehti hai ke October mein agle cut ke liye significant hurdle hai, jabke September mein easing possible hai.”

EUR/USD pair ne Wednesday ko set kiye gaye new high 1.1175 se decline kiya hai 1.1130 par, jab US Dollar (USD) rise hua lekin 2024 ke new low ke qareeb reh gaya. Central currency pair thoda down trade kar raha hai 1.1130 par. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo US dollar ki value ko measures karta hai six other major currencies ke relative, ab 101.00 par trade kar raha hai.
Federal Reserve (Fed) September mein interest rates ko lower karne ki track par hai, US dollar ke liye prognosis abhi bhi bleak hai. Is move se, Fed apni first dovish interest rate decision ko almost four years mein kar raha hai. March 2022 se, US central bank ne tight monetary policy ko pursue kiya hai inflation ko reduce karne ke liye.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes July 30-31 policy meeting se indicate karte hain ki "vast majority" Fed officials September mein policy-easing ko appropriate samajhte hain, given continued easing inflationary pressures. Yeh market speculation ko strengthen karta hai Fed interest rate cuts ke liye.

FOMC minutes ne bhi reveal kiya ki some decision-makers July se interest rates ko lower karne ke liye prepared the. Investors Fed Chair Jerome Powell ki address ko watch karenge Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium mein Friday ko 14:00 GMT se, interest rates ki direction ke liye clues ke liye. Woh September ke interest rate decreases ki extent aur Fed is year ke potential reductions ke hints bhi dhoondenge.

Investors US flash S&P Global PMI data ko watch karenge August ke liye Thursday ko 13:45 GMT se release hone ke liye. Preliminary PMI data se anticipate kiya ja raha hai ki July mein Composite PMI 54.3 se 53.5 par gir gaya.

Price Evaluation

Investors ki attention Fed Powell ki address par focused hai JH Symposium mein Friday ko, EUR/USD pair Wednesday ke trading range mein trade kar raha hai. Main currency pair year-to-date high 1.1775 par trade kar raha hai, isliye anticipate kiya ja raha hai ki woh apni four-day winning streak ko extend karega. Standard currency pair ne previously momentum gain kiya hai daily time frame breakout ke channel formation se. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) short-to-long-term trend ko indicate kar rahe hain, upward pointing. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) upward solid momentum ko indicate karta hai, bullish region 60.00–80.00 mein oscillating. Lekin, momentum indicato