یورپی ڈالر بمقابلہ امریکی ڈالر

EURUSD currency pair ko daily chart par dekhte hain. Filhaal, chart par nazar aata hai ke yeh pair is period ke liye ek ascending trend mein hai, lekin abhi corrective phase mein hai. Wave structure apni upward sequence bana rahi hai, aur MACD indicator overbought zone mein hai, lekin ab yeh apne signal line ki taraf niche ja raha hai. Pichle trading haftay ne bulls ko koi bhi kamiyabi nahi di; wo pehle jaisay upar ja rahe the lekin ab unka waqt kuch der ke liye khatam ho gaya hai. Agar hum Fibonacci target grid ko pehli wave ke neeche lagayein, to hum dekh sakte hain ke target achieve ho chuka hai - 161.8 level is grid par achieve kiya gaya aur 200 level ko reach karne ki koshish ki gayi. Minimum target achieve ho chuka hai, aur is ke ilawa price ne 2023 ke end ke significant maximum ko bhi exceed kar diya hai, is liye yahan ek potential selling zone ban gaya. CCI indicator bhi overbought zone se bahar aa raha tha. Pichle haftay mein, bears ne revenge liya aur pehle ke uthaav ka ek significant hissa wapas le liya. Unhone price ko niche push kiya, jo ke pound dollar se zyada behtar hai, kyunki EURGBP cross rate pichle kuch dinon se gir raha hai. Yeh downward trend cross rate ke, pound dollar ki girawat ko roknay mein rukawat daal raha hai aur euro dollar ko girne mein madad kar raha hai. Abhi purchases bilkul bhi nahi consider kiye ja rahe hain jab tak price 1.0958 ke support level tak nahi pahunchtay. Wahan kuch upward wave ko pakadne ki ummeed hogi, lekin filhaal yeh nahi hai, sirf choti choti pullbacks hain, aur uske baad phir se ek aur girawat. Aur overall market mein, baqi major pairs bhi nazdeek future mein US dollar ko strengthen karne ke liye nazar aa rahe hain. Tactic yeh hai ke intraday pullbacks ke baad selling formations ko dhoondha jaye aur niche kaam kiya jaye. Mera khayal hai ke is haftay sellers ka dominance rahega. Kal US mein Labor Day tha, isliye shayad activity itni low thi.
Agar hum chart ko aur detail se dekhein, to yeh bhi dekha ja sakta hai ke corrective phase ke doran, price ne kuch technical levels ko test kiya hai jo indicate karte hain ke abhi bhi downward pressure bana hua hai. Jo bhi traders hain, unhe chahiye ke wo market trends ko dhyan se monitor karen aur short-term pullbacks ko use karke profit kamane ki koshish karein

Subha ke apne tajziye mein, maine 1.1039 ka level highlight kiya tha aur apni trading decisions ka daromadar is par rakha tha. Aayiye 5-minute chart ko dekhtay hain aur jo kuch hua uska tajziya karte hain. Ek girawat hui, lekin yeh 1.1039 ka test ya false breakout tak nahi pohnch saki, is liye koi munasib entry points nahi mile. Doosray hissay ke liye technical outlook mein koi tabdeeli nahi hai.
EUR/USD par long positions kholne ke liye:

Eurozone ke mulkon ke PMI service activity ke disappointing data ne pehle hissay mein euro par dabao dala. In kamzor statistics ne aur zyada zor diya ke eurozone mein interest rate cuts ki zarurat hai, kyun ke agar yeh na hue toh economy ko mazeed growth ke liye momentum kho dene ka khatra hai. Doosray hissay mein tawajjo US trade balance data, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), aur factory order volumes par honi chahiye. Agar data mazboot aata hai, toh euro ki aur girawat ho sakti hai. Is liye mein abhi kharidari ke liye jaldi nahi kar raha. Long positions ke liye ek munasib entry point tab milega agar 1.1039 ke ird gird false breakout hota hai, jisme target hoga 1.1068 ka recovery, jo moving averages ke neeche hai aur abhi tak sellers ke haq mein hai. Agar yeh range break hoti hai aur wapas se test hota hai, toh mazeed growth ke chances hain, jo ke 1.1093 ko test karega. Sab se door target 1.1114 ka high hoga, jahan mein apna profit loonga. Agar EUR/USD mazeed girta hai aur 1.1039 par buyer activity na dikhti ho, toh sellers apni position ko mazid mazboot kar sakte hain, jisse pair mein aur girawat ho sakti hai. Is surat mein, main long positions tab consider karoonga jab 1.1011 ke ird gird false breakout hoga. Wagarna, mein 1.0984 se rebound par long positions kholunga, jisme din ke dauran 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target hoga.

EUR/USD par short positions kholne ke liye:

Sellers ne kamzor European statistics ke baad kuch ground hasil kiya, magar unhe baray players se khaas support nahi mili. 1.1039 ka breakout target karne se pehle, intezar karna behtar hoga ke US data ka kya nateeja aata hai, kyun ke agar data kamzor ata hai toh naye buyers risk assets mein invest kar sakte hain. Is surat mein bears ka pehla kaam 1.1068 level ka difa karna hoga. Wahan ek false breakout short positions kholne ka acha mauqa dega, jiska target hoga 1.1039 ka support retest, jahan pehle buyer reaction ka intezar rahega. Agar is level ke neeche breakout aur consolidation hoti hai, toh ek aur selling opportunity milegi, jisme target hoga 1.1011. Sab se door target 1.0984 ka hoga, jahan mein apna profit loonga. Agar EUR/USD upar jata hai aur bears 1.1068 ke ird gird activity nahi dikhate, toh buyers dobara initiative le sakte hain aur resistance 1.1093 tak push kar sakte hain. Mein is level par bhi selling consider karoonga, magar sirf ek failed breakout ke baad. Main short positions 1.1114 se rebound par kholne ka plan rakhta hoon, jisme din ke dauran 30-35 points ki downward correction ka target hoga.

Subha ke apne tajziye mein, maine 1.1039 ka level highlight kiya tha aur apni trading decisions ka daromadar is par rakha tha. Aayiye 5-minute chart ko dekhtay hain aur jo kuch hua uska tajziya karte hain. Ek girawat hui, lekin yeh 1.1039 ka test ya false breakout tak nahi pohnch saki, is liye koi munasib entry points nahi mile. Doosray hissay ke liye technical outlook mein koi tabdeeli nahi hai.
EUR/USD par long positions kholne ke liye:

Eurozone ke mulkon ke PMI service activity ke disappointing data ne pehle hissay mein euro par dabao dala. In kamzor statistics ne aur zyada zor diya ke eurozone mein interest rate cuts ki zarurat hai, kyun ke agar yeh na hue toh economy ko mazeed growth ke liye momentum kho dene ka khatra hai. Doosray hissay mein tawajjo US trade balance data, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), aur factory order volumes par honi chahiye. Agar data mazboot aata hai, toh euro ki aur girawat ho sakti hai. Is liye mein abhi kharidari ke liye jaldi nahi kar raha. Long positions ke liye ek munasib entry point tab milega agar 1.1039 ke ird gird false breakout hota hai, jisme target hoga 1.1068 ka recovery, jo moving averages ke neeche hai aur abhi tak sellers ke haq mein hai. Agar yeh range break hoti hai aur wapas se test hota hai, toh mazeed growth ke chances hain, jo ke 1.1093 ko test karega. Sab se door target 1.1114 ka high hoga, jahan mein apna profit loonga. Agar EUR/USD mazeed girta hai aur 1.1039 par buyer activity na dikhti ho, toh sellers apni position ko mazid mazboot kar sakte hain, jisse pair mein aur girawat ho sakti hai. Is surat mein, main long positions tab consider karoonga jab 1.1011 ke ird gird false breakout hoga. Wagarna, mein 1.0984 se rebound par long positions kholunga, jisme din ke dauran 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target hoga.

EUR/USD par short positions kholne ke liye:

Sellers ne kamzor European statistics ke baad kuch ground hasil kiya, magar unhe baray players se khaas support nahi mili. 1.1039 ka breakout target karne se pehle, intezar karna behtar hoga ke US data ka kya nateeja aata hai, kyun ke agar data kamzor ata hai toh naye buyers risk assets mein invest kar sakte hain. Is surat mein bears ka pehla kaam 1.1068 level ka difa karna hoga. Wahan ek false breakout short positions kholne ka acha mauqa dega, jiska target hoga 1.1039 ka support retest, jahan pehle buyer reaction ka intezar rahega. Agar is level ke neeche breakout aur consolidation hoti hai, toh ek aur selling opportunity milegi, jisme target hoga 1.1011. Sab se door target 1.0984 ka hoga, jahan mein apna profit loonga. Agar EUR/USD upar jata hai aur bears 1.1068 ke ird gird activity nahi dikhate, toh buyers dobara initiative le sakte hain aur resistance 1.1093 tak push kar sakte hain. Mein is level par bhi selling consider karoonga, magar sirf ek failed breakout ke baad. Main short positions 1.1114 se rebound par kholne ka plan rakhta hoon, jisme din ke dauran 30-35 points ki downward correction ka target hoga.

EUR/USD ko dabao ka samna karna par raha hai jab Euro ECB ke rate cuts ke imkaanat ke bawajood kamzor hota hai. Eurozone ki kamzor ma'eeshat ECB ke September ke liye rate cut ke bets ko support karti hai. US Dollar apni position ko mazbooti se wapas hasil karta hai jab US core PCE inflation data par nazar rakhi ja rahi hai. EUR/USD Wednesday ke European session mein 1.1150 ke qareeb thoda correct hota hai. Yeh major currency pair tab girta hai jab US Dollar (USD) apni position ko wapas hasil karta hai jo is hafte ke naye saal ke low par pahunch gaya tha. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ke 6 bade currencies ke khilaf value ko track karta hai, naye lows 100.50 se thoda upar 100.80 ke qareeb chala gaya hai.
US Dollar ki halki recovery abhi ke liye ek chhoti si pullback lagti hai, jo market participants ke liye bechne ke mauke ke taur par istemal ho sakta hai. Greenback ka near-term outlook abhi bhi fragile hai, khas taur par Fed ke September mein interest rates kam karne ki umeed par.

Jab Fed ke September mein rate cuts ko traders ne puri tarah se price in kar liya hai, bets ab bhi is baat par divided hain ke central bank dheere dheere 25 basis points (bps) ka cut karega ya 50 bps ka bada cut. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 30-day Federal Funds Futures pricing data dikhata hai ke 50-bps ke interest rate reduction ka imkaan 34.5% hai, jabke baaki 25 bps ke cut ko zyada support milta hai.

Rate-cut size ke fresh cues ke liye, investors Friday ko United States (US) core Personal Consumption Expenditure Inflation (PCE) data ka intezar kar rahe hain. PCE Price Index report ka andaza hai ke annual core inflation 2.7% tak barh jayegi, jo June ke reading 2.6% se upar hai, aur monthly figures steady 0.2% se barh rahi hain. Agar underlying inflation mein mazeed kami dekhne ko milti hai, to Fed ke aggressive policy-easing approach ki umeed barh jayegi. Iske baraks, agar figures sticky rahte hain to jumbo rate-cut ke scenarios kamzor ho sakte hain.

EUR/USD naye highs 1.1200 se girti hai jab Euro (EUR) kamzor hota hai. Euro apne major peers ke muqablay mein underperform karta hai kyunki investors ka confidence hai ke European Central Bank (ECB) September mein interest rates phir se kam karega.

ECB ne June mein interest rates ko kam karna shuru kiya jab policymakers ko lagta hai ke Eurozone mein price pressures 2025 tak bank ke 2% target par wapas aayengi. Lekin, July mein isne key borrowing rates ko unchanged rakhna decide kiya kyunki officials ko dar tha ke aggressive policy easing inflationary pressures ko dobara badha sakti hai. EUR/USD 1.1200 par naye swing high se gir kar 1.1150 ke qareeb aa gaya hai. Major currency pair ka broader outlook abhi bhi mazboot hai kyunki yeh weekly time frame par Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern ka breakout hold karta hai. Upward-sloping 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) jo 1.0900 ke qareeb hai, mazeed upside support karta hai

EUR/USD currency pair ki price movements ka analysis karain ge. Pehle toh yeh samajhna zaroori hai ke ascending channel abhi tak break nahi hua; Chart abhi bhi trend ke andar adjust ho raha hai. Friday ka upward momentum is liye critical hai kyun ke iss se ascending channel mein growth barqarar reh sakti hai, aur 11th figure ke qareeb jo support level hai, wo buyers ke liye bohot important hai. Yeh level ascending channel ke andar akhri clear reference minimum ko represent karta hai. Agar kal ke din mein accumulation se maximum mein bara update hota, sirf kuch points ka nahi, toh ek naya minimum establish hota ascending channel mein. Magar yeh nahi hua, isliye mujhe lagta hai ke channel pressure mein hai, lekin ab tak break nahi hua. Ek rebound, preferably triangle formation ki taraf, channel ko break karna asaan kar dega aur ek solid reversal pattern establish kar dega. Agar hum EUR/USD pair ke daily chart ka jaiza lain, toh pair kayi dinon se sideways move kar raha hai, aur aaj bhi yeh range ke andar move kar raha hai. Ab yeh dekhna hoga ke age situation kaise develop hoti hai, yeh sideways trend continue karta hai ya koi breakout hota hai. Aaj ke technical analysis ko dekhein, toh moving averages neutral hain, lekin technical indicators strongly sell ki taraf ishara karte hain. Overall recommendation sell ki hai, lekin humein ehtiyaat se kaam lena hoga aur sahi moment ka intezaar karna hoga. Aaj US se aane wali essential news negative lean karti hai, jo ke pair ko affect kar sakti hai. 5 saal ke US Treasury notes ka auction chal raha hai, aur Euro group meeting khatam ho chuki hai, magar euro zone se koi significant news nahi aayi. Is context mein, pair downward trend karne ke chances hain, aur yeh support level ke qareeb 1.1099 tak pohanch sakta hai. Dosri taraf, ek brief rise bhi ho sakta hai resistance level ke qareeb 1.1129 tak.

**EUR/USD Ka Fundamental Market Driving Facts:**

EUR/USD ka jo jor hai, woh recently kuch notable movements dekha hai, jo zyada tar US economic data aur European Central Bank (ECB) ke policies ki expectations se chal raha hai. Ek aham event US JOLTS Job Openings data ka release tha jo July ke liye expected se kam aaya. Ye kamzor data US Dollar ko girane ka sabab bana, kyunki ye US labor market ke potential risks ko darshata hai aur Federal Reserve ke aggressive interest rate hikes ki sambhavanayein kam kar deta hai. US Dollar ki kami ne EUR/USD ko do hafton ke low 1.1030 se tezi se recover karne ka mauka diya. Market ka response yeh darshata hai ke US economic recovery ke baare mein chinta barh gayi hai, khaaskar jab labor market kamzor ho raha hai. Europe ki taraf, investors ECB ke upcoming decisions ko nazar mein rakh rahe hain. Yeh speculations hain ke ECB shayad September mein interest rates ko phir se kam kar sakti hai, taake economic growth ko boost kiya ja sake, jabke Eurozone mein low inflation aur doosre challenges hain. Lekin, agar ECB ka stance dovish raha, toh Euro ka upside limit ho sakta hai, jo EUR/USD pair ki recovery ko cap kar sakta hai.

**Technical Outlook Aur Trading Strategy:**

Technically, EUR/USD pair ne ek descending channel ko break kar diya hai jo kaafi waqt se chal raha tha. Yeh breakout US Dollar ke negative sentiment se fuel hua, jiski wajah se pair ne lagbhag 50 pips gain kiya. Lekin, ab pair ko 1.1085 pe significant resistance ka samna hai hourly aur H4 charts dono par. Yeh resistance level crucial hai ek sustained uptrend ke liye confirm karne ke liye. Agar pair 1.1085 ke upar break aur hold karne mein fail hota hai, toh yeh previous channel mein wapas gir sakta hai. Agle US job data ka release pair ki direction determine karne mein pivotal hoga. Agar data disappoint hota hai, toh yeh US Dollar ko aur kamzor kar sakta hai, aur EUR/USD ko 1.1085 resistance ko break karne ka momentum de sakta hai. Agar pair H4 candle ko 1.1090 ke upar close karta hai, toh nayi buyers ko attract kar sakta hai, jo ek stronger bullish trend ko signal karega. Aise mein, pair 26 August ke high 1.1197 ko target kar sakta hai, jo ek key resistance level hai. Is level ko successfully break karne se uptrend further extend ho sakta hai.

**Summary:**

Technically, 1.1085 ke upar break aur hold karna crucial hai ek bullish trend ko confirm karne ke liye, jahan 1.1197 agla target hai. Traders ko alert rehna chahiye, kyunki pair ki direction agle US job data aur uske broader economic implications se influence hogi.

Teeen din ki girawat ke baad, currency pair ne apne neechey jaane ka silsila ulat diya hai aur Friday ke Asian session mein 1.1050 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai. Ye rebound zyada tar US Dollar (USD) ki kamzori ki wajah se hai, jo ke US Federal Reserve (Fed) ke hawala se dovish policy shift ki umeedon ki wajah se aayi hai. Din ke aakhri mein, pair 1.1041 ke qareeb settle ho gaya.

**EUR/USD ke Fundamentals:**

Is izafay ke bawajood, Euro ko apni recovery mein muskilat ka samna hai. Ye baat hairat angaiz hai kyunke Eurozone ke haaliya preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data ne July ke liye umeed se zyada izafa dikhaya, jo 2.6% tak pohanch gaya. Economists ka andaza tha ke ye June ke 2.5% se ghat ke 2.4% ho jaye ga. Core HICP, jo ke food aur energy jese volatile items ko exclude karta hai, bhi umeed se zyada raha aur 2.9% ka izafa dikhaya jab ke forecast 2.8% ka tha. Dosri taraf, US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke USD ko chhe badi currencies ke muqable mein naapta hai, apni haaliya gains se piche hat gaya aur 101.70 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai. US Treasury yields mein kami, jo ke filhal 4.01% aur 3.97% par hain, ne bhi Greenback par dabao dala hai.

European Central Bank (ECB) se umeed ki ja rahi hai ke woh is saal do martaba mazeed interest rates ko kam karega. Ye adjustment Eurozone ke economic challenges ka samna karne aur inflation ko dobara 2% ke target par laane ke liye hai. Magar ECB officials ab tak kisi specific rate-cut ka ilaan karne se gurez kar rahe hain aur Eurozone ki economy ka mazeed data ka intezaar kar rahe hain. Eurostat ke data ne June mein Eurozone retail sales mein umeed ke khilaf 0.3% ki girawat dikhayi, jab ke pehle 0.5% ka izafa hua tha aur market expectation 0.1% ka tha.

**Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:**

Friday ko pair ne apni haaliya bullish phase ko mazeed extend kiya, 1.1050 mark se upar chalte hue, aur 1.1202 ke qareeb nayi multi-year peak ki taraf barh raha hai. Magar is upward movement ki sustainability ab sawalon ke ghere mein hai, kyunke pair ne shayad 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par 1.0848 se technical rejection ke baad khud ko zyada extend kar diya hai.



Technical traders ab daily candlesticks par rising higher lows ka pattern dekh rahe hain jo ke support de sakta hai. Phir bhi, EUR/USD 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par 1.1047 ke qareeb ek possible correction ke liye ab bhi vulnerable hai.

EUR/USD pair ne Wednesday ko set kiye gaye new high 1.1175 se decline kiya hai 1.1130 par, jab US Dollar (USD) rise hua lekin 2024 ke new low ke qareeb reh gaya. Central currency pair thoda down trade kar raha hai 1.1130 par. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo US dollar ki value ko measures karta hai six other major currencies ke relative, ab 101.00 par trade kar raha hai.
Federal Reserve (Fed) September mein interest rates ko lower karne ki track par hai, US dollar ke liye prognosis abhi bhi bleak hai. Is move se, Fed apni first dovish interest rate decision ko almost four years mein kar raha hai. March 2022 se, US central bank ne tight monetary policy ko pursue kiya hai inflation ko reduce karne ke liye.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes July 30-31 policy meeting se indicate karte hain ki "vast majority" Fed officials September mein policy-easing ko appropriate samajhte hain, given continued easing inflationary pressures. Yeh market speculation ko strengthen karta hai Fed interest rate cuts ke liye.

FOMC minutes ne bhi reveal kiya ki some decision-makers July se interest rates ko lower karne ke liye prepared the. Investors Fed Chair Jerome Powell ki address ko watch karenge Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium mein Friday ko 14:00 GMT se, interest rates ki direction ke liye clues ke liye. Woh September ke interest rate decreases ki extent aur Fed is year ke potential reductions ke hints bhi dhoondenge.

Investors US flash S&P Global PMI data ko watch karenge August ke liye Thursday ko 13:45 GMT se release hone ke liye. Preliminary PMI data se anticipate kiya ja raha hai ki July mein Composite PMI 54.3 se 53.5 par gir gaya.

Price Evaluation

Investors ki attention Fed Powell ki address par focused hai JH Symposium mein Friday ko, EUR/USD pair Wednesday ke trading range mein trade kar raha hai. Main currency pair year-to-date high 1.1775 par trade kar raha hai, isliye anticipate kiya ja raha hai ki woh apni four-day winning streak ko extend karega. Standard currency pair ne previously momentum gain kiya hai daily time frame breakout ke channel formation se. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) short-to-long-term trend ko indicate kar rahe hain, upward pointing. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) upward solid momentum ko indicate karta hai, bullish region 60.00–80.00 mein oscillating. Lekin, momentum indicato

EUR/USD Price Prediction

EUR/USD currency pair ki price behavior ka analysis filhal discuss ho raha hai. H1 chart ka mutaala karne se yeh maloom hota hai ke EUR/USD filhal 1.1080 par trade kar raha hai. MACD indicator ne ek bullish crossover show kiya hai, aur histogram bhi badhti hui momentum ko dikhata hai, jo price movement mein bullish tendency ko indicate karta hai. Yeh suggest karta hai ke buying pressure control mein hai aur prices ko upar le jaa sakta hai, lekin 1.11000 ke qareebi resistance zone par nazar rakhna zaroori hai. RSI (14) indicator filhal 61.97 par hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke EUR/USD ke upar jaane ki guzarish ab bhi baqi hai, jab tak ke correction na aaye, halaan ke yeh overbought zone ke qareeb hai. Lekin, zaroori hai dekhna ke price resistance level ko break karti hai aur apni upward trajectory ko resume karti hai ya phir ek pullback ka samna hota hai.

d1.png

Daily period pattern ke mutabiq, price ne ek aur bullish daily candle ke saath din khatam kiya hai aur 100 daily EMA ke upar cross kar gaya hai. Daily reversal pattern ka formation yeh suggest karta hai ke aaj ke trading session mein ziada bullish activity ho sakti hai, lekin yeh bhi mumkin hai ke price sabse qareebi support tak pehle drop kare taake momentum hasil karne ke baad upar ja sake. Lagta hai ke price ne EMA 20 daily aur middle Bollinger daily area ko bhi reject kar diya hai taake ek martaba phir se upward pattern bana sake. Yeh upward trend dikhata hai mukhtalif indicators se, jaise ke stochastic aur RSI, jahan stochastic ne wapas cross kar ke region 20 ko upar break kar diya hai. Phir jab yeh region 70 ke qareeb aata hai, toh RSI ke upar barhne ka imkaan dikh raha hai.

EUR/USD pair ne Wednesday ko set kiye gaye new high 1.1175 se decline kiya hai 1.1130 par, jab US Dollar (USD) rise hua lekin 2024 ke new low ke qareeb reh gaya. Central currency pair thoda down trade kar raha hai 1.1130 par. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo US dollar ki value ko measures karta hai six other major currencies ke relative, ab 101.00 par trade kar raha hai. Federal Reserve (Fed) September mein interest rates ko lower karne ki track par hai, US dollar ke liye prognosis abhi bhi bleak hai. Is move se, Fed apni first dovish interest rate decision ko almost four years mein kar raha hai. March 2022 se, US central bank ne tight monetary policy ko pursue kiya hai inflation ko reduce karne ke liye.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes July 30-31 policy meeting se indicate karte hain ki "vast majority" Fed officials September mein policy-easing ko appropriate samajhte hain, given continued easing inflationary pressures. Yeh market speculation ko strengthen karta hai Fed interest rate cuts ke liye.

FOMC minutes ne bhi reveal kiya ki some decision-makers July se interest rates ko lower karne ke liye prepared the. Investors Fed Chair Jerome Powell ki address ko watch karenge Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium mein Friday ko 14:00 GMT se, interest rates ki direction ke liye clues ke liye. Woh September ke interest rate decreases ki extent aur Fed is year ke potential reductions ke hints bhi dhoondenge.

Investors US flash S&P Global PMI data ko watch karenge August ke liye Thursday ko 13:45 GMT se release hone ke liye. Preliminary PMI data se anticipate kiya ja raha hai ki July mein Composite PMI 54.3 se 53.5 par gir gaya.

Price Evaluation

Investors ki attention Fed Powell ki address par focused hai JH Symposium mein Friday ko, EUR/USD pair Wednesday ke trading range mein trade kar raha hai. Main currency pair year-to-date high 1.1775 par trade kar raha hai, isliye anticipate kiya ja raha hai ki woh apni four-day winning streak ko extend karega. Standard currency pair ne previously momentum gain kiya hai daily time frame breakout ke channel formation se. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) short-to-long-term trend ko indicate kar rahe hain, upward pointing. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) upward solid momentum ko indicate karta hai, bullish region 60.00–80.00 mein oscillating. Lekin, momentum indicato

EUR/USD currency pair ka price behavior is waqt market mein kaafi discuss kiya ja raha hai, kyun ke yeh pair kuch critical levels par trade kar raha hai. H1 chart ke analysis se yeh maloom hota hai ke EUR/USD iss waqt 1.1080 par trade kar raha hai. Yeh level khud mein ek significant price point hai kyun ke yahan se pehle bhi market ne strong reaction dikhaya hai. Is dafa, MACD indicator ek bullish crossover ki taraf ishara kar raha hai, jahan se dikh raha hai ke buying momentum bazaar mein barh raha hai.

MACD ke sath sath, hum dekhte hain ke histogram bhi barh raha hai, jo ke ye baat clear karta hai ke momentum positive hai aur aane wale waqt mein buying pressure control mein reh sakta hai. Yeh suggest karta hai ke buyers dominate kar rahe hain aur aglay kuch ghanton mein price ko mazeed upar le jaane ki koshish karenge. Lekin, jo sabse aham cheez dekhne ki hai wo yeh hai ke price 1.1100 ke resistance zone tak kaise perform karega. Yeh zone pehle bhi market ke liye ek challenge raha hai aur aksar yahan se price ne ya to breakout kiya hai ya phir wapas niche aaya hai.

Agar RSI (14) indicator ki baat karein, to woh bhi abhi 61.97 par hai, jo ke bullish trend ko support karta hai. Yeh value RSI ki overbought zone se abhi door hai, lekin phir bhi level ke nazdeek hai, jo indicate karta hai ke aane wale dino mein ek correction ki zarurat ho sakti hai. Lekin abhi ke liye, price ke paas mazeed rise hone ki gunjaish hai.

Kuch aham points jinhay monitor karna chahiye woh hain: agar price 1.1100 resistance ko tod kar upar nikal jaye, to market mein ek naye bullish leg ki shuruat ho sakti hai. Is soorat mein, next target 1.1150 tak jaa sakta hai. Lekin agar yeh resistance tod nahi pata, to ek pullback ki possibility barh jati hai, jahan price phir se 1.1050 tak aasakta hai.

Isliye, yeh waqt traders ke liye critical hai ke wo price action ko closely monitor karein, taake woh breakout ya pullback ka sahi waqt pe fayda utha saken. Jo log risk management ke sath trading karte hain unke liye yeh waqt moqa hai ke potential opportunity ko dekhen aur apne strategy ko accordingly adjust karein. Overall, market mein kaafi volatility hai, lekin buyers ka edge hai jab tak 1.1100 ke upar trade ho raha hai.

Kal ka din pur sukoon guzar gaya, thori si izafa hui thi, lekin aaj phir se girawat shuru ho gayi hai. Aaj hum EURUSD currency pair ko daily chart par dekhte hain. Filhaal, chart par nazar aata hai ke yeh pair is period ke liye ek ascending trend mein hai, lekin abhi corrective phase mein hai. Wave structure apni upward sequence bana rahi hai, aur MACD indicator overbought zone mein hai, lekin ab yeh apne signal line ki taraf niche ja raha hai. Pichle trading haftay ne bulls ko koi bhi kamiyabi nahi di; wo pehle jaisay upar ja rahe the lekin ab unka waqt kuch der ke liye khatam ho gaya hai. Agar hum Fibonacci target grid ko pehli wave ke neeche lagayein, to hum dekh sakte hain ke target achieve ho chuka hai - 161.8 level is grid par achieve kiya gaya aur 200 level ko reach karne ki koshish ki gayi. Minimum target achieve ho chuka hai, aur is ke ilawa price ne 2023 ke end ke significant maximum ko bhi exceed kar diya hai, is liye yahan ek potential selling zone ban gaya. CCI indicator bhi overbought zone se bahar aa raha tha. Pichle haftay mein, bears ne revenge liya aur pehle ke uthaav ka ek significant hissa wapas le liya. Unhone price ko niche push kiya, jo ke pound dollar se zyada behtar hai, kyunki EURGBP cross rate pichle kuch dinon se gir raha hai. Yeh downward trend cross rate ke, pound dollar ki girawat ko roknay mein rukawat daal raha hai aur euro dollar ko girne mein madad kar raha hai. Abhi purchases bilkul bhi nahi consider kiye ja rahe hain jab tak price 1.0958 ke support level tak nahi pahunchtay. Wahan kuch upward wave ko pakadne ki ummeed hogi, lekin filhaal yeh nahi hai, sirf choti choti pullbacks hain, aur uske baad phir se ek aur girawat. Aur overall market mein, baqi major pairs bhi nazdeek future mein US dollar ko strengthen karne ke liye nazar aa rahe hain. Tactic yeh hai ke intraday pullbacks ke baad selling formations ko dhoondha jaye aur niche kaam kiya jaye. Mera khayal hai ke is haftay sellers ka dominance rahega. Kal US mein Labor Day tha, isliye shayad activity itni low thi.

Agar hum chart ko aur detail se dekhein, to yeh bhi dekha ja sakta hai ke corrective phase ke doran, price ne kuch technical levels ko test kiya hai jo indicate karte hain ke abhi bhi downward pressure bana hua hai. Jo bhi traders hain, unhe chahiye ke wo market trends ko dhyan se monitor karen aur short-term pullbacks ko use karke profit kamane ki koshish karein. Technical indicators jaise MACD aur CCI ki movement bhi trading decisions ko guide karte hain. Short-term volatility ke bawajood, long-term trend abhi bhi bearish lag raha hai aur sellers ka dominance hi main theme lag raha hai. Isliye, trading strategy ko is ke mutabiq adjust karna zaroori hai aur market ki situation ko nazar mein rakhte hue trades enter karni chahiye

EUR/USD ne Wednesday ko uchhal gaya jab markets ne Greenback ko bechna shuru kiya. Markets ne risk-on position mein shift ho gaya hai kyunki Fed rate cut ki umeed barh gayi hai. US jobs data market ko dominate karta hai jab investors NFP ki taraf dekh rahe hain.

EUR/USD ne Wednesday ko ek bid pakri, recent selloff se rebound kiya aur 1.1050 se technical support mila. Behtareen price action ke bawajood midweek mein, pair 1.1100 ke handle ke neeche hi raha. US jobs data is hafte key focus banayega, Friday ke US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) ke agle hafte se pehle.

European Retail Sales EU side se is hafte ka ek matra key data print hai. Thursday ko, pan-EU Retail Sales figures July ke liye 0.1% YoY ke recovery ka expectation hai, jo pichlay mahine ke -0.3% contraction se behtar hai.

US JOLTS Job Openings July mein forecast ke 8.1 million ke muqablay mein 7.673 million available jobs mila, jabke pichlay mahine ka revised number 7.91 million tha. Federal Reserve (Fed) ke 18 September ko interest rates cut shuru karne ke broad expectation ke sath, markets 50 bps cut par bets lagane lage hain, jo next rate-cutting cycle ka shuruat hogi. Rate markets abhi bhi 2024 ke end tak 100 bps total cuts price kar rahe hain, lekin CME ke FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, Fed ke September rate call ke 25 bps hone ka 57% chance hai.

Friday ka US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report bada hai aur Fed ke pehle rate trim se pehle key US labor data ka aakhri round represent karta hai. Friday ke NFP print se market expectations ke depth of Fed rate cut set hone ki umeed hai, investors poori tarah se naye rate-cutting cycle ke shuru hone ko price kar rahe hain is mahine.

EUR/USD ki price forecast
Fiber ne short-term technical barriers ke neeche phir se girawat dekhi hai, lekin bidders ab bhi balance banaye rakhne ke liye aage aa rahe hain, chahe wo bullish recovery na kar paayein. EUR/USD ne pichlay hafte ke shuru mein 13-month high par 1.1200 ke upar chala gaya, aur Greenback flows mein near-term pullback ne bidders ko bullish chart paper ko pakadne ke liye struggling kar diya hai.

Pair abhi bhi 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke 1.0845 ke upar trade kar raha hai. Deep bull country mein honay ke bawajood, EUR/USD ko ab bhi steepening bearish pullback ka samna karna pad raha hai kyunki shorts targets 50-day EMA ke just above 1.0956 par congregate ho rahe hain.

EUR/USD pair ne Wednesday ko kya kiya? Yeh apne upward movement ko continue kiya. Din bhar mein, sirf ek report publish hui thi Nonfarm Payrolls ki annual revision ke bare mein, jo ki forecasts se bhi worse nikli. Asal mein, agar yeh expected se better bhi hoti, toh dollar phir bhi fall karta. Monday aur Tuesday ko, dollar ko macroeconomic backdrop ki zaroorat nahi thi apne decline ko sustain karne ke liye. Toh, yeh kehna mushkil nahi hai ki U.S. labor market ke ek aur weak report ne U.S. currency ko further fall kar diya. Lekin, U.S. dollar daily fall raha hai, regardless of these reports, aur correct bhi nahi kar pa raha hai.
Nonfarm Payrolls report previously published reports ki correction nahi hai; yeh sirf annual figure ki adjustment hai. Market ne pehle weaker monthly reports ko account kiya, phir annual one ko, jo ki essentially same data ko reflect karta hai. Abhi traders ko sirf ek sawal puchna chahiye ki yeh relentless rise kab tak continue karega. Upside par trading easy, simple, aur convenient lagta hai, lekin sirf first glance par, kyunki traders likely samajhte hain ki euro almost out of the blue rise kar raha hai. Isliye, yeh movement kisi bhi moment par end ho sakta hai. Currency ko buy karna jab aapko nahi pata ki yeh kyun rise kar raha hai, yeh pleasant task nahi hai. Phir bhi, uptrend ke ending ke signs nahi hain, price continue rise kar sakti hai 1.1185 aur 1.1234 ke targets ke sath.

Wednesday ko, sirf ek trading signal forma hua - U.S. trading session mein 1.1137 level surpass hua. Din ke end par, euro sirf 15 pips rise kiya, lekin volatility currently low hai, aur movement one-sided hai. Yeh trade Thursday tak hold ki ja sakti hai 1.1185 ke target ke sath.

EUR/USD hourly time frame mein steady aur measured upward movement sustain kar raha hai. Last week, new U.S. inflation reports ne market ko dollar ko sell karne ka ek aur reason diya. Is week, market Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell se dovish rhetoric expect kar raha hai. Market har available opportunity ko seize kar raha hai dollar ko sell karne ke liye. Ab humare paas do ascending trendlines hain, jo ki euro ko support kar rahe hain. General mein, koi bhi indicators currently suggest nahi kar rahe hain ki uptrend end ho raha ha
EUR/USD ka next target strong seller supply resistance area 1.1245-1.1250 tak pohnch sakta hai. Moving Average ko trend strength monitor karne ke liye use karna bohat effective strategy hai, especially jab resistance aur support levels ko identify karna ho. Pending order buy stop aur sell stop strategy bhi agle hafte ke price movements ko anticipate karne ke liye acha plan

EUR/USD pair ne Wednesday ko US trading session ke doran tez ubarat dikhayi, jab ke European session ke doran yeh stagnant raha. Kuch reports ya events ne is tez upward movement ko trigger kiya. Kal ek hi event hua, JOLTs report jo July mein job openings ke number ke baare mein thi. Is report ke publish hone se pehle hi humne warn kiya tha ke actual value phir se overly optimistic forecast se kam ho sakti hai. Yeh simple hai – July mein unemployment rate barh gaya, lekin market ne job openings mein kami ki ummeed nahi ki thi—yeh expectations aur forecasts ka paradox hai.

Job openings ki kami dekhte hue, yeh unsurprising hai ke dollar phir se gir gaya. Khush kismati se, yeh girawat sirf Ichimoku indicator lines tak hi rahi, jo bulls ke onslaught ko rok rahi hain. Is tarah se, naye downward trend abhi bhi intact hai lekin agar cheezen aise hi chalti rahi, toh yeh jaldi reverse ho sakta hai. Yaad rakhein, haftay ke end tak do din bache hain, aur in dino mein NonFarm Payrolls, unemployment, aur ADP report publish hongi. Jaise ke hum dekh sakte hain, dollar ke fail hone ke kai chances hain.

Hum sirf Senkou Span B lines, Kijun-sen, aur 1.1092 level se Wednesday ke trading signals par bounce ko note kar sakte hain. Agar yeh bounce sirf bounce hi raha, toh hum decline ke continuation ki ummeed kar sakte hain, jiska target 1.1006 hoga. Lekin, hum traders ko phir se yaad dilate hain ke dollar is haftay khatar mein hai, kyunki market phir se overly optimistic values ki ummeed kar raha hai sabse important indicators ke liye. Isliye, actual values ke kam hone ki high probability hai. Aur yeh wahi cheez hai jo market, jo pichle mahino mein kisi bhi wajah se dollar ko bechne ko pasand kar raha hai, ko chahiye.

Hourly time frame par, EUR/USD pair ko finally unjustified upward trend ko khatam karne ka real chance milta hai. Ek naya downtrend form hua hai. Federal Reserve meeting ke do haftay bache hain, market US dollar ki rampant selling resume kar sakti hai, lekin abhi ke liye, technical grounds hain pair ke girne ke liye ummeed karne ke. Lekin, agar US labor market aur unemployment data phir se disappoint karta hai, toh dollar jaldi se wapas gir sakta hai jahan se iska ascent shuru hua tha.

September 5 ke liye, hum trading ke liye following levels ko highlight karte hain: 1.0658-1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0843, 1.0889, 1.0935, 1.1006, 1.1092, 1.1137, 1.1185, 1.1234, 1.1274, saath hi Senkou Span B (1.1117) aur Kijun-sen (1.1075) lines. Ichimoku indicator lines din ke doran move kar sakti hain, toh trading signals identify karte waqt is baat ko consider karna chahiye. Stop Loss set karna na bhoolen taake agar price intended direction mein 15 pips move kare, toh aapko potential losses se bachaya ja sake agar signal galat ho.

Thursday ko, European Union services sector business activity index ka second estimate publish karne ka plan bana raha hai, aur bas itna hi. United States mein ADP aur ISM services sector ke reports zyada important hain. Yeh dono reports USD ki course ko din ke second half mein affect kar sakti hain.