یورپی ڈالر بمقابلہ امریکی ڈالر

۔ Tuesday ke trading session mein New York mein, EUR/USD currency pair mein aik nihayat buland izafa dekha gaya, 1.1010 ke ahem resistance level ke qareeb pounch gaya. Yeh izafa Euro ki qeemat mein US Dollar ke muqable mein taqatwar izafa ko numaya karta hai. Mojudah doran mein, EUR/USD 1.0926 ke qareeb trading ho raha hai, forex market mein barqarar bullish momentum ka dikhawa kartay hue. Euro ki qadr ka is izafa ne US Dollar par barhti hui dabao ke sath aiqtadar-e-uzma aur karobar ke dataon ke zariye chal raha pressure ko milta hai. US Economic Indicators aur Inke Asar Dollar Par
Haal hi mein aaye hue economic data United States ke Dollar par numaya asar andaz hue hain. July mein ISM Services PMI 48.8 par gira, jo April 2020 se sab se tezi se girawat thi. Yeh huliya kisi had tak umeed se kum tha jo 52.5 tha aur June ke 53.8 se gir gaya tha. Is ke ilawa, ADP Employment report ne bataya ke US private jagahon par sirf 150,000 naye jobs shamil hue July mein - jise 160,000 ka tasavvur kiya gaya tha, aur yeh paanch mahinon mein sab se choti izafa tha. Yeh data points kamzor hote hui economic conditions ka ishara dete hain aur US Dollar par pressure dalte hain.

European Market Sentiment aur Bond Yield Spread

Europe mein, market sentiment bond yields ke tabadlay se mutasir hota hai. French aur German 10 saal ke hakoomati bonds ke darmiyan yield spread haal hi mein karib 71 basis points tak ghata, jo pichle mahine ke end par 82 basis points se nichay tha. Yeh kam hone wala spread yeh zahir karta hai ke investors mein barhtay huay itminan hai ke France ke far-right RN party ko majlis-e-shura mein bari bahali hasil karna mushkil hai. Yeh sentiment mein tabdeeli ne France ke assets ko taqat di hai aur Euro ki puri shidat mein pechida hai.

EUR/USD ki Technical Analysis

Ek technical lehaz se, EUR/USD pair taqatwar bullish trends ka dikhawa kar raha hai. Yeh behad nichay 1.1000 ke levels se tezi se ubhar raha hai, chand waqton ke liye 1.0950 se oopar chala gaya hai. Pair ne 200-din EMA par 1.0826 se bhi guzar gaya hai, jo taqatwar short-term bullish sentiment ko zahir karta hai. Yeh technical tor par breakthrough yeh darust karta hai ke upri trend jari reh sakta hai, traders resistance levels aur potential breakout points ko qareeb se nigrani me rakhte hue.

Ikhtisar mein, Euro ke US Dollar ke muqable mein haal ki quwwat ko kamzor US economic indicators aur European markets mein itminani sentiment ka milaap mana jata hai. Jab EUR/USD pair ahem resistance levels ke qareeb pounchega, market participants qareeb aanay wale economic data aur geopolitical developments ko nigrani me rakhtay hue is currency pair ke mustaqbil ke harkaton par asar dalne wale cheezon ka tawaju se intezar karenge

EUR/USD jorha ne Wednesday ko ek chhoti si girawat dekhi, jo ke recent rally ke baad aayi thi jo saal ke naye high par pohanch gayi thi. Ye girawat zyada tar Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein rate cut ke ummeed ki wajah se thi, jo ke broad market risk appetite ko kam kar rahi thi. Jab ke economic calendar mid-week mein itna busy nahi hai, Thursday ko US GDP data ka release bade dhyan se dekha jayega. Magar, consensus forecast ye hai ke second-quarter GDP growth lagbhag 2.8% par stable rahegi, jo ke market reactions ko zyada significant nahi banayegi. Is hafte ka key data release Friday ko US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data hai. Investors nishaan dekh rahe hain ke inflation dheemi ho rahi hai ya kam se kam itni tez na ho ke Fed ko September 18 ko rate cut se roknay ke liye majboor kare.

Technical perspective se, EUR/USD jorha filhal 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) 1.0850 ke upar testing kar raha hai. Agar girawat continue hoti hai to ye 50-day EMA ke kareeb 1.0940 tak peeche ja sakta hai.

Recent pullback ke bawajood, EUR/USD jorha ne August mein achi growth dikhayi hai, 1.0776 se lekar 1.1200 ke aas-paas tak rally ki hai. Ye performance euro ke liye positive outlook ko darshata hai. Lekin, Relative Strength Index (RSI) aur Stochastics overbought conditions ki taraf ishaara kar rahe hain, jo ke potential selling pressure ko indicate karte hain. 1.1240-1.1274 ke area, jo ke 2021-2022 downtrend ka 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aur 2022 ke low ka trendline shamil hai, jorhe ke liye near term mein resistance ka kaam kar sakta hai. Agar is area ko break kiya jata hai, to aage ke gains ke liye potential targets 1.1340 aur 1.1370 ke beech ho sakte hain. Lekin, 1.1480 area ek significant hurdle hai jo upward momentum ko limit kar sakta hai. In sab factors ke ilawa, geopolitical tensions aur global economic uncertainties bhi EUR/USD jorha ko influence kar sakte hain. Ukraine mein ongoing conflict, trade disputes, aur potential global recession ke concerns currency market mein volatility create kar sakte hain. Overall, EUR/USD jorha ko economic, geopolitical, aur technical factors ke combination se influence milta rahega. Investors ko in developments ko nazar mein rakhte hue informed trading decisions lene ki zaroorat hai.

Umeed hai aap theek hain. Aaj dopahar ko, main EURUSD market ki price movements ka jaiza le raha hoon. Filhal, EURUSD mein ek mazboot upward trend nazar aa raha hai, jo aage chal kar bhi izafa hone ki ummeed dilaata hai. Abhi ke liye, main sirf buying opportunities par focus karne ka plan bana raha hoon. Aaj is Monday ko, zaroori hai ke foran kisi position mein na jayein. Aam tor par, market ek chhoti si correction ka samna karti hai usse pehle ke primary trend resume ho. Baad mein, main mukhtalif timeframes par further analysis karunga. EURUSD ki current upward trend ki stability dekhte hue, aage bhi significant gains ki ummeed hai, isliye buying opportunities par concentrate karna behtar hai. Lekin, ehtiyaat bhi zaroori hai taake jaldi mein enter na karein, kyunki downward correction bhi aa sakti hai phir upward trend resume ho sakta hai. Filhal, main ek wait-and-see approach apnaunga aur baad mein market signals ke base par dobara analysis karunga.

July ka inflation data economic outlook ko aur mushkil bana raha hai. Eurostat ke mutabiq, July mein preliminary Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) 2.6% barh gaya, jo ke June mein 2.5% tha aur expected 2.4% se zyada hai. Ye izafa ECB ke September meeting mein interest rates kam karne ke potential par sawal uthata hai. Is wajah se Euro ne kuch buying interest attract kiya hai kyunki traders ECB rate cut ki ummeed ko dobara se dekh rahe hain. Market sentiment is waqt delicate hai, aur economic data rate cut ke expectations ko bohot zyada influence kar raha hai. CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, traders Fed se 18 September ko quarter-point rate cut ki umeed rakhte hain, aur 50-basis-point cut ka 20% chance hai. Magar agar economic data bohot zyada kamzor hoti hai, toh market sentiment par asar pad sakta hai aur rate cuts itne relevant nahi rahenge agar koi severe economic downturn aa jaye. Isliye, investors ek challenging situation mein hain, jahan woh softer data ki ummeed kar rahe hain jo rate cuts ko support kare bina kisi gehri economic crisis ka izhar kare.

**Umeed Hai Aap Khair Maqdam Hain**

Aaj dopahar ko, main EURUSD bazar ki price movements ka tajziya kar raha hoon. Filhaal, EURUSD mein mazboot upar ki taraf ka trend nazar aa raha hai, jo aage bhi barhne ki ummeed de raha hai. Abhi ke liye, mera plan sirf buying opportunities par focus karna hai. Monday ke din shuru hone par, turant positions mein na jayein. Aam tor par, market ek choti si correction dekhti hai phir apne primary trend ko resume karti hai. Baad mein, main mukhtalif timeframes ka tajziya karunga. EURUSD ka current upward trend dekhte hue, lagta hai ke mazeed faida hone ki achi umeed hai, isliye buying opportunities par dhyan dena acha hai. Lekin, ehtiyaat zaroori hai taake early entry se bacha ja sake, kyunki ek downward correction aa sakti hai uske baad upward trend resume ho sakta hai. Abhi ke liye, main wait-and-see approach apnaunga aur baad mein dopahar ko market signals ke buniyad par dobara tajziya karunga.

**July Ka Inflation Data Aur Economic Outlook**

July ka inflation data economic outlook ko mushkil bana raha hai. Eurostat ke mutabiq, July mein preliminary Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) 2.6% barh gaya hai, jo June mein 2.5% tha aur 2.4% ke tajziya shuda figure se zyada hai. Ye izafa European Central Bank (ECB) ke September meeting mein interest rates kam karne ke mumkinat par sawaal uthata hai. Is wajah se, Euro ko kuch buying interest mila hai kyunki traders ECB ke rate cut ke chances ko dobara dekh rahe hain. Market sentiment filhaal naazuk hai, aur economic data rate cuts ke expectations ko bohot zyada influence kar raha hai.

**Fed Rate Cuts Aur Market Sentiment**

CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, traders 18 September ko Fed se quarter-point rate cut ki umeed rakhte hain, aur 50-basis-point cut ki 20% chance hai. Lekin, agar economic data bohot zyada kamzor hota hai, to market sentiment kam ho sakta hai aur rate cuts ka maqsad kam lag sakta hai agar economic downturn severe ho. Isliye, investors mushkil position mein hain, soft data ki umeed kar rahe hain jo rate cuts ko support kare bina kisi bade economic crisis ke indications ke.

EUR/USD ka jor par Wednesday ko aik chota sa pullback dekha gaya, jo recent rally ke baad aya jo saal ke naye highs tak pohncha. Yeh girawat zyada tar Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein rate cut ke ummeed ki wajah se thi, jisne market ka risk appetite kam kar diya. Halanki mid-week ke dauran economic calendar zyada busy nahi hai, lekin Thursday ko US GDP data ka release kafi closely dekha jayega. Magar, consensus forecast yeh hai ke doosre quarter ki GDP growth 2.8% ke aas-paas rehne ki umeed hai, jo market reactions ko zyada significant banane se rokenge. Week ka key data release Friday ko US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data hoga. Investors inflation ke decelerate hone ke signs ka intezar kar rahe hain, ya phir yeh dekhna chahte hain ke inflation itni tez nahi ho rahi ke Fed ko 18 September ko rate cut na implement karna pade. Technical perspective se dekha jaye to EUR/USD jor filhal 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) 1.0850 ke aas-paas test kar raha hai. Agar decline jari rahi, to 50-day EMA ke taraf 1.0940 ke aas-paas retreat ho sakta hai.

Recent pullback ke bawajood, EUR/USD jor August mein strong gains dikhata raha, 1.0776 se le kar 1.1200 ke aas-paas tak rally karte hue. Yeh performance euro ke liye positive outlook ko suggest karti hai. Lekin, caution zaroori hai kyunke Relative Strength Index (RSI) aur Stochastics overbought conditions dikhate hain, jo potential selling pressure ko indicate karte hain. 1.1240-1.1274 ka area, jo 2021-2022 ke downtrend ka 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aur 2022 low ki trendline ko shamil karta hai, is waqt pair ke liye resistance provide kar sakta hai. Agar is area ko break kiya, to further gains ke liye potential upside targets 1.1340 se 1.1370 ke beech ho sakte hain. Magar, 1.1480 ka area aik significant hurdle ho sakta hai jo upward momentum ko limit kar sakta hai. In sab factors ke ilawa, geopolitical tensions aur global economic uncertainties bhi EUR/USD pair ko influence kar sakti hain. Ukraine ka ongoing conflict, trade disputes, aur potential global recession ke concerns currency market mein volatility create kar sakte hain. Overall, EUR/USD jor economic, geopolitical, aur technical factors ka combination se influence hoga. Investors ko in developments ko closely monitor karna hoga taake informed trading decisions liye ja sakein.

Ye bilkul wahi baat hai jiske baare mein hum baat kar rahe the - euro, pound ke muqablay mein, trend ko barqarar rakhne mein pareshani ka samna karta hai. Kal, is jor (pair) mein achi movement dekhi gayi, jo upar ke trend ke continue hone ki ishaarat thi. Lekin aaj, hum dekh rahe hain ke secondary signal for growth ne kaam nahi kiya aur buyers ke stops ko hit kar diya.

Lagta hai ke signal itna clear tha ke euro ne risk level ke neeche wapas aakarshak ho gaya. Price action yahan kaafi khas hai. Yeh dekhna zaroori hai ke do support fractals (jo ab resistances ban gaye hain) 1.11494 ke level par aligned hain. Secondary buy signal aur iske potential ko purple upward column se mark kiya gaya hai jo targets ko 1.12082 ki taraf indicate karta hai. Lekin, yeh correction dono positive aur negative cheezein le kar aati hai. For example, 1.11477 ke level se pending order trigger ho gaya hai. Yeh buy limit order hourly timeframe par primary signal of growth ke liye hai. Primary signal ka stop-loss level 1.10988 ke neeche set kiya gaya hai, toh hum abhi tak isse door hain aur uptrend barqarar hai.

Mujhe abhi tak uptrend mein koi kamzori nazar nahi aati, kyunke market structure barqarar hai. Downside par 1-2-3 pattern ki maujoodgi zaroori nahi ke breakdown aur strong selling signal ka indication ho. 1-2-3 pattern bade impulse ke context mein hai. Agar market 1.10988 ke level ko revisit karta hai, toh yeh uptrend structure ki integrity ka breach mana jaa sakta hai. Toh, hum kis taraf dekh rahe hain? Current Fibonacci grid ke 100% level humare targets ko 1.12475 par precisely represent karta hai. Sab kuch abhi bhi signal aur trend ke andar hai, isliye bekar ke guesses se bacha jaye. Yeh nahi pata ke euro ka pehle ka move upar ki taraf ek false breakout tha ya sachcha - sirf waqt hi batayega.

Aj ham EUR/USD pair ky bary main bat karen gay EUR/USD market mein price movements ka tajziya kar raha hoon. Is waqt, EUR/USD mein mazboot upward trend nazar aa raha hai, jo mazeed izafay ki imkaan ko zahir karta hai. Filhal, mera irada sirf buying opportunities par tawajjoh dene ka hai. Monday ki is shuruat mein, munasib yeh hai ke fauran koi position lene mein jaldbazi na ki jaye. Aksar market apne bunyadi trend mein dobara aane se pehle aik chhoti si correction se guzar jati hai. Baad mein, main mukhtalif timeframes par mazeed tajziya karoonga. EUR/USD ki maujooda upward trend ki stability ko dekh kar, mazeed izafay ki ahm imkaanat hain, isliye mein buying opportunities par tawajjoh dene ki salahiyat deta hoon. Lekin ehtiyat karna zaruri hai, taake jaldbazi mein entry na ho, kyunke ek downward correction bhi mumkin hai is trend ke dobara shuru honay se pehle. Filhal, main wait-and-see approach apna raha hoon aur market signals ki buniyad par is dopeher dobara tajziya karoonga.

July ke inflation data ne economic soorat-e-haal ko mazeed complex bana diya hai. Eurostat ke mutabiq, preliminary Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) July mein saal ba saal 2.6% barh gaya hai, jo June ke 2.5% se zyada hai aur expected 2.4% ko bhi pichay chhor gaya. Is izafay ne European Central Bank (ECB) ke September ki aanay wali meeting mein interest rates kam karne ke imkaan par sawal uthaye hain. Is sab ke nateeje mein, Euro mein kuch buying interest aaya hai kyunke traders ECB ke rate cut ke imkaan ko dobara soch rahe hain. Market sentiment is waqt nazuk hai, aur economic data rate cuts ke imkaanaat par asarandaz ho rahi hai. CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, traders 18 September ko Fed se quarter-point rate cut ki tawakkoh kar rahe hain, aur 20% imkaan hai ke 50-basis-point tak ka bada cut ho sakta hai. Lekin, agar economic data mein kafi kamzori aati hai, to yeh market sentiment ko narmi mein le aayega, aur rate cuts ki ahmiyat kum ho sakti hai agar koi shadid maashi girawat hoti hai. Sarafroon ke liye yeh waqt mushkil hai, kyunke woh aise data ki umeed kar rahe hain jo rate cuts ko sahulat de lekin kisi gehri maashi buhran ki taraf ishaara na kare. EUR/USD ki soorat-e-haal dilchaspi se bharpoor hai kyunke aik taraf agar hum bari tasveer dekhen to abhi yeh nahi kaha ja sakta ke asal ascending movement toot chuka hai. Lekin dusri taraf, kal humne ek munasib girawat dekhi jo 1.11 ke qareeb platform chor gayi, aur isliye targets bhi usi taraf hain. Mazid is mein dollar ki mazbooti bhi shamil hai jo kal dekhi gayi. Barhaal, yeh dekhna zaruri hai ke aaj dollar ka sauda kaise hota hai, kyunke aaj US se kafi economic data bhi aanay wala hai, jismein GDP bhi shamil hai. Khud se, main filhal southward dekhta hoon kyunke mera aik target zihin mein hai. Main short initiative par tawajjoh karoonga, isliye agar hum dobara 1.1150 se upar jaate hain, to main bechne par ghor karunga

Good morning. EUR/USD daily timeframe pe market itna dynamic hai ke choti si tabdeeli bhi bade shift ka sabab ban sakti hai. Kal ke din bulls ka control tha aur unki dominance nazar aayi, lekin sab kuch dramatically tabdeel ho gaya hai. Nayi daily candle purane din ki high ko break nahi kar paayi, aur hum dekh rahe hain ke ek progressive bearish movement ho rahi hai jo ke purane bullish daily candle ke body ko engulf kar rahi hai. Bilkul mumkin hai ke din khatam hone tak bulls achanak rally karein, jo ke price ko 50 - 100 pips tak ucha le jaa sakti hai. Lekin mujhe lagta hai yeh scenario unlikely hai, kyunki price already heavily overbought hai trend ke saath, aur strong resistance level ko break kar chuki hai. Lagta hai ke price ka fuel khatam ho gaya hai aur refuel karne ke liye downward movement ki zaroorat hai.

1-hour timeframe pe, kal thodi si pullback ke baad, price ko ek aur bullish impulse ka mauka mila, lekin yeh zyada tar ek test lag raha tha, kyunki yeh us zone mein break hui jahan pe initial bullish base banayi gayi thi. Yeh clearly dikhayi deta hai ke sellers us area mein active ho gaye aur bullish volumes ko absorb karna shuru kar diya. Price overnight us level ke upar tik nahi paayi, aur various forms of dojis midnight ke aas paas form hui. Aur jab long breakout ka intezaar tha, price bearish ho gayi, jo ke bulls ki weakness ko confirm karta hai. Price us zone ke aas paas aayi, pura test nahi kiya, aur basically drop ko avoid karte hue balance hui. Lagta hai ke price yahan se bearish direction mein niche ki taraf drift karti rahegi.

EUR/USD pair ne Wednesday ko kaafi volatility dekhi, pehle to yeh 1.1143 ke nazdeek chala gaya EU session ke doran, magar baad mein apni kuch gains chhod di. Euro ki recent performance mixed economic signals aur ECB ki future policy actions ke uncertainty aur Germany ki economic health ke concerns se mutasir hui hai.

**Germany Ki Economic Struggles: GDP Contraction Aur Inflation Ki Barhawa**

Ek bara concern yeh hai ke Germany ke preliminary Q2 GDP ne ghaflati contraction dikhayi, jo 0.1% gir gayi, jabke growth ki umeed thi. Yeh decline pehle quarter ke 0.2% ke modest expansion ke baad aayi hai. Year-on-year, Germany ki GDP bhi 0.1% gir gayi, jo forecasted stability ke khilaf hai. In pareshaniyon aur kam demand environment ke response mein, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner ne tax relief measures announce kiye hain jo corporate aur household spending ko boost karne ki koshish hain.

Economic uncertainty ko barhate hue, Germany ke preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for July ne garmi se bhari hui inflation ki taraf ishara kiya. Monthly HICP 0.5% barh gayi, jo pehle ke estimates aur 0.2% ke previous release se zyada hai. Saalana base par, HICP 2.6% tak barh gaya, jo pehle ke 2.5% se zyada hai, aur economists ke expectation of slowdown to 2.4% ke khilaf hai.

**Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Channel Breakout Aur Key Resistance Levels**

Spot price filhal chaar ghante ke chart par channel formation ke lower boundary ke nazdeek trade kar rahi hai. Agar yeh pattern se breakout hota hai, to significant upward movement aur trading volume ka izafa ho sakta hai. 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), jo ke 1.1120 ke aas-paas hai, Euro ke liye ek crucial support level raha hai. Agar pair Monday ke high 1.1204 ko surpass karta hai, to agle resistance levels ki taraf further gains dekhne ko mil sakte hain, jo 1.1185 aur psychological mark 1.1200 tak ho sakte hain.

Currency pair ne 1.1150 tak kuch waqt ke liye bulandiyon ka saamna kiya, lekin phir se apne aam range 1.1204 ke aas-paas wapas aa gaya, aur 2024 ka naya high set karne ka mauka chhod diya. Market ki ummeedein bharak gayi thi, investors ko lag raha tha ke Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts jaldi implement kar sakta hai. Sab se zyada speculation is baat ke aas-paas hai ke shayad September mein double rate cut ho sakta hai, jo currency fluctuations ko heavily influence kar raha hai.

Eurozone ki Economic Data ne Aage ke Rate Cuts ki Umeedein Kam Kar Di:

Eurozone ke economic indicators ne is saal additional interest rate cuts ke liye umeedein kam kar di hain. Inflation data expected se zyada aaya hai, jahan Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) July mein 2.6% saal-on-saal badh gaya, jabke consensus estimate 2.4% tha. Core HICP, jo food aur energy jese volatile items ko exclude karta hai, 2.9% tak barh gaya, jabke expected 2.8% tha. Ye figures Eurozone ke mazboot economic conditions ko highlight karti hain aur further rate reductions ki ummeedon ka dobara jaiza lene par majboor karti hain.

EUR/USD ki Correction Limited Hai Jabke Mazboot German Data Euro ko Support De Raha Hai:

EUR/USD mein recent correction itni substantial ya tez nahi dikhayi gayi. German economic data, khaaskar June ke Factory Orders, ne Euro ko support diya hai. Jabke June mein 0.8% month-over-month increase ki expectations thi, jo May mein 1.6% ki kami ke baad thi, actual data ne forecasts ko piche chhod diya aur 3.9% ka izafa dikhaya. Ye strong performance Eurozone economy ki resilience ko dikhata hai aur Euro ki position ko support karta hai.

D1 Chart ke Key Technical Levels aur Resistance Points ko Dekhein:

1.1203 ka mark ek significant resistance point raha hai jahan buyers ne pehle step in kiya hai. Agar is level se upar successful rally hoti hai, to December ki peak 1.1139 par dhyan jaa sakta hai. Agar Fed koi achanak emergency rate cut implement karta hai, to market conditions volatile ho sakti hain aur 1.1277 tak ka move bhi mumkin ho sakta hai.

Lekin, pair ne kuch resistance ka saamna kiya hai, khaaskar Monday ko 1.10 ke upar thodi der ke liye spike ke baad. Is level ne strong selling pressure dekha, jo ek critical descending trend line ke neeche retreat kar gaya. Pair ko agle bullish leg ke liye strength build karni hai, ise solid support milna zaroori hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) overbought territory ke qareeb hai, jo suggest karta hai ke ek pullback zaroori ho sakta hai pehle ke kisi potential rally ke momentum gain karne se pehle.

**Umeed Hai Aap Khair Maqdam Hain**

Aaj dopahar ko, main EURUSD bazar ki price movements ka tajziya kar raha hoon. Filhaal, EURUSD mein mazboot upar ki taraf ka trend nazar aa raha hai, jo aage bhi barhne ki ummeed de raha hai. Abhi ke liye, mera plan sirf buying opportunities par focus karna hai. Monday ke din shuru hone par, turant positions mein na jayein. Aam tor par, market ek choti si correction dekhti hai phir apne primary trend ko resume karti hai. Baad mein, main mukhtalif timeframes ka tajziya karunga. EURUSD ka current upward trend dekhte hue, lagta hai ke mazeed faida hone ki achi umeed hai, isliye buying opportunities par dhyan dena acha hai. Lekin, ehtiyaat zaroori hai taake early entry se bacha ja sake, kyunki ek downward correction aa sakti hai uske baad upward trend resume ho sakta hai. Abhi ke liye, main wait-and-see approach apnaunga aur baad mein dopahar ko market signals ke buniyad par dobara tajziya karunga.

**July Ka Inflation Data Aur Economic Outlook**

July ka inflation data economic outlook ko mushkil bana raha hai. Eurostat ke mutabiq, July mein preliminary Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) 2.6% barh gaya hai, jo June mein 2.5% tha aur 2.4% ke tajziya shuda figure se zyada hai. Ye izafa European Central Bank (ECB) ke September meeting mein interest rates kam karne ke mumkinat par sawaal uthata hai. Is wajah se, Euro ko kuch buying interest mila hai kyunki traders ECB ke rate cut ke chances ko dobara dekh rahe hain. Market sentiment filhaal naazuk hai, aur economic data rate cuts ke expectations ko bohot zyada influence kar raha hai.

**Fed Rate Cuts Aur Market Sentiment**

CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, traders 18 September ko Fed se quarter-point rate cut ki umeed rakhte hain, aur 50-basis-point cut ki 20% chance hai. Lekin, agar economic data bohot zyada kamzor hota hai, to market sentiment kam ho sakta hai aur rate cuts ka maqsad kam lag sakta hai agar economic downturn severe ho. Isliye, investors mushkil position mein hain, soft data ki umeed kar rahe hain jo rate cuts ko support kare bina kisi bade economic crisis ke indications ke

Forex price movement ka tajziya karte hue EUR/USD ke aaj ke liye jo candlestick shape dekha gaya hai, usse yeh lagta hai ke price ke barhne ki probability ab bhi zyada hai. Yeh nishkarsh is baat par hai ke aakhri EUR/USD trade ek bullish candlestick bana. Jaise ke aakhri daily trade mein dikhaya gaya, closing price trade ke opening price se upar thi.
Bullish candlestick ke formation ka matlab hai ke buyers ne market ko pichli trade mein control mein rakha. Isliye aaj ke EUR/USD price movement analysis ke mutabiq, price barhne ke taraf hi rahegi. Is hisaab se, sabse relevant transaction option buy hai. Pichle EUR/USD price movement ko dekhte hue, jab currency pair 1.1130 par open hua tha, usne lowest trading price 1.1100 par banayi. Is lowest price level par, EUR/USD ko buyers ka support mila aur phir yeh barh gaya. Barhne ka silsila tab tak chala jab tak price ne highest trading price 1.1175 ko touch kiya. Is highest price level par, EUR/USD sirf sideways move karta raha aur finally trading 1.1150 par band hui.

EUR/USD market conditions ko dekhte hue, ajeng4x ka nazariya yeh hai ke EUR/USD abhi bhi bullish hone ke liye inclined hai, isliye buy transaction option aaj ke trading mein sabse behtar hai. Lekin transaction execute karne ke liye, behtar hoga ke sahi momentum ka intezaar kiya jaye, jaise ke smaller time frame par bullish candlestick pattern ka ubharna.

Isse yeh hoga ke jo transactions kiye jayenge, unmein quality open positions milengi, ideal risk-reward calculations ke saath aur achhi winning rate probabilities ke sath. Transaction decisions lene mein sabse nazdeek ke support resistance levels ka dhyan rakhna zaroori hai. Yeh support resistance levels Bollinger Bands indicator, Moving Average, Horizontal Line ke zariye ya Psychological prices ka istemal karke dekha ja sakta hai:

Agar price support area mein reject hoti hai, to buy transaction instantly ki ja sakti hai. Lekin agar support ka breakout hota hai, to buy transaction option ko dobara dekhna chahiye. Forex market ke price movements bohot dynamic hain aur market ko bearish condition mein bhi le ja sakti hain. Buy option tab bhi kiya ja sakta hai agar EUR/USD price pehla resistance breakout kar jaye, lekin open position ke liye behtar hoga ke price correction ke baad resistance area tak wapas aaye, isse Resistance Become Support (RBS) kehte hain. Isliye, abhi se risk calculations ka intezam karna zaroori hai, taake jo actions lene hain, woh trading plan ke mutabiq ho. Agar market unpredictable move karti hai, to losses measured aur risk limits ke andar honge jo pehle

Filhaal, daily timeframe par EUR/USD price action yeh darshata hai ke buyers control mein hain. Price Upper Bollinger Bands ke qareeb trade kar rahi hai, khaaskar 1.1028 aur 1.1030 ke beech. Buyers is level ko todne ki koshish kar rahe hain, aur Monday ke trading session mein breakout ka optimistic nazariya hai. Aaj ke trading session ke end par ek strong bullish candle ka formation further upward movement ki ummeed dilaata hai.

Agar buyers Upper Bollinger Bands ko todne mein kamiyab hote hain, to agla major target sellers ki supply resistance area hoga, jo 1.1100 se 1.1105 ke beech hai. Yeh level historically sellers ke liye ek bada rukawat bana hua hai.

Agle Monday ko, humein sellers se kuch resistance dekhne ko mil sakta hai, jo bearish correction ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Aise mein, price nearest buyer support area 1.1015 se 1.1013 tak gir sakti hai. Agar yeh support level mazboot bana rehta hai, to buyers phir se control mein aa sakte hain aur price ko upar push kar sakte hain, target karte hue resistance area 1.1043 se 1.1045 tak. Agar yeh resistance level bhi breach hota hai, to further bullish movement sellers ki supply resistance area 1.1100 se 1.1105 tak extend ho sakti hai.

H4 Timeframe aur Moving Averages Analysis:

Daily analysis ke ilawa, main EUR/USD pair ko H4 timeframe par 21-period aur 34-period moving averages ke saath bhi dekh raha hoon. Filhaal, price dono moving averages ke upar trade kar rahi hai, jo ek bullish trend ko indicate karta hai. Lekin, price ne 1.1047 par ek resistance level ko approach kiya hai, jo aage ki upward movement ko rok sakta hai.

Is situation ko dekhte hue, main samajhta hoon ke thodi correction ka intezaar karna behtar hoga pehle buy orders enter karne se. Correction ke baad entry point zyada favorable ho sakta hai, jo successful trade ke chances ko barha dega.

Explanation:
Current Trend aur Resistance Levels: Price movement yeh indicate karti hai ke buyers filhaal price ko upar push kar rahe hain lekin significant resistance levels ka samna kar rahe hain. Key resistances ko monitor karna zaroori hai for possible reversal ya continuation of the trend.
Potential Scenarios: Yeh bullish scenario (agar buyers resistance todte hain) aur bearish scenario (agar sellers resistance bana rehte hain) ko outline karta hai, jo market movements ke potential view ko balance karta hai.
Support Levels: Support levels ko identify karna crucial hai kyunki yeh indicate karte hain ke price decline par wapas kahaan bounce kar sakti hai, jo traders ke liye informed decisions banane mein madadgar hai.
Moving Averages ka Role: Moving averages ka use trend aur potential entry points ko identify karne mein hota hai, jo buy ya sell karne ke liye price action ko in averages ke saath dekh kar suggest karta hai.
Trade Strategy: Patience par emphasis diya gaya hai, jo ke trade enter karne se pehle correction ka intezaar karna successful trading ke liye zaroori hai. Yeh trading psychology aur strategy development ka ek key principle hai.

Eurusd ke overall market conditions ko dekhte hue, ajeng4x ka nazariya ye hai ke eurusd currency pair ab bhi bullish hone ki taraf jazbaat rakhta hai, isliye aaj ke trading mein buy transaction ek acchi option ho sakti hai. Lekin, transaction execute karne se pehle sahi momentum ka intezar karna behtar hai, jaise ke chhote time frame par bullish candlestick pattern ka ubharna. Iska maqsad ye hai ke jo transactions kiya jayega wo high quality open positions bana sake, ideal risk reward calculations ke sath aur achi winning rate probabilities ke sath.
Transaction decisions lene mein, nazdeek ke support resistance level ka dhyan rakhna zaroori hai. Ye support resistance levels Bollinger Bands indicator, Moving Average, Horizontal Line ya Psychological prices ki madad se dekhe ja sakte hain. Graph par, EURUSD currency pair ki movement pichle haftay ke dauran dominantly bullish trend ko dikhati hai, hafte ke mod se lekar aaj tak. Filhal market trend thoda upward movement dikhata hai, jo buyers ke control mein hai, halanki pichle hafte ke shuruat mein sellers ne thoda influence diya jisse price neeche gayi. Pichle hafte ke dauran market movement zyada tar bullish trend ki taraf thi, aur agar price neeche jane ki koshish bhi kare to wo zyada der tak nahi tik sakti. Is hafte ke trading session mein EURUSD pair ki movement abhi bhi aage badh sakti hai.

Currency pair ne 1.1150 tak kuch waqt ke liye bulandiyon ka saamna kiya, lekin phir se apne aam range 1.1204 ke aas-paas wapas aa gaya, aur 2024 ka naya high set karne ka mauka chhod diya. Market ki ummeedein bharak gayi thi, investors ko lag raha tha ke Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts jaldi implement kar sakta hai. Sab se zyada speculation is baat ke aas-paas hai ke shayad September mein double rate cut ho sakta hai, jo currency fluctuations ko heavily influence kar raha hai.

Eurozone ki Economic Data ne Aage ke Rate Cuts ki Umeedein Kam Kar Di:

Eurozone ke economic indicators ne is saal additional interest rate cuts ke liye umeedein kam kar di hain. Inflation data expected se zyada aaya hai, jahan Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) July mein 2.6% saal-on-saal badh gaya, jabke consensus estimate 2.4% tha. Core HICP, jo food aur energy jese volatile items ko exclude karta hai, 2.9% tak barh gaya, jabke expected 2.8% tha. Ye figures Eurozone ke mazboot economic conditions ko highlight karti hain aur further rate reductions ki ummeedon ka dobara jaiza lene par majboor karti hain.

EUR/USD ki Correction Limited Hai Jabke Mazboot German Data Euro ko Support De Raha Hai:

EUR/USD mein recent correction itni substantial ya tez nahi dikhayi gayi. German economic data, khaaskar June ke Factory Orders, ne Euro ko support diya hai. Jabke June mein 0.8% month-over-month increase ki expectations thi, jo May mein 1.6% ki kami ke baad thi, actual data ne forecasts ko piche chhod diya aur 3.9% ka izafa dikhaya. Ye strong performance Eurozone economy ki resilience ko dikhata hai aur Euro ki position ko support karta hai.

D1 Chart ke Key Technical Levels aur Resistance Points ko Dekhein:

1.1203 ka mark ek significant resistance point raha hai jahan buyers ne pehle step in kiya hai. Agar is level se upar successful rally hoti hai, to December ki peak 1.1139 par dhyan jaa sakta hai. Agar Fed koi achanak emergency rate cut implement karta hai, to market conditions volatile ho sakti hain aur 1.1277 tak ka move bhi mumkin ho sakta hai.

Lekin, pair ne kuch resistance ka saamna kiya hai, khaaskar Monday ko 1.10 ke upar thodi der ke liye spike ke baad. Is level ne strong selling pressure dekha, jo ek critical descending trend line ke neeche retreat kar gaya. Pair ko agle bullish leg ke liye strength build karni hai, ise solid support milna zaroori hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) overbought territory ke qareeb hai, jo suggest karta hai ke ek pullback zaroori ho sakta hai pehle ke kisi potential rally ke momentum gain karne se pehle