یورپی ڈالر بمقابلہ امریکی ڈالر

Crurrency pair iss waqt 1.11621 par trade ho rahi hai, aur prevailing trend bearish hai. Bearish trend ka matlab hai ke euro ki value U.S. dollar ke muqable mein kamzor ho rahi hai. Yeh trend mukhtalif wajoohat ki wajah se ho sakta hai, jisme economic data releases, central bank policies, geopolitical events, aur broader market sentiment shaamil hain. In factors ko samajhna zaroori hai taake future movements ko anticipate kiya ja sake, khaaskar jab price mein baray shifts ka potential ho.

Current Market Analysis

Is waqt, EUR/USD pair gradual decline dekh rahi hai, jo market mein prevailing bearish sentiment ko reflect karta hai. Euro par pressure hai mukhtalif wajoohat ki wajah se, jisme Eurozone ka kamzor economic outlook United States ke muqable mein shamil hai. Eurozone mein inflation ab bhi ek significant concern hai, jis par European Central Bank (ECB) apni monetary policy mein ehtiyaat barat rahi hai. ECB ka focus inflation ko control karne par hai, sath hi economic growth ko bhi support kar rahi hai.

Doosri taraf, U.S. Federal Reserve zyada aggressive policy stance apna rahi hai, aur inflation ko control karne ke liye interest rates barha rahi hai. ECB aur Fed ke darmiyan yeh monetary policy divergence EUR/USD ke bearish trend ka ek bara sabab hai. U.S. mein higher interest rates dollar ko investors ke liye zyada attractive bana dete hain, jo zyada returns ki talash mein hote hain, aur is wajah se euro par neeche ka pressure aata hai.

Potential for a Big Movement

Halaanki abhi yeh pair slow aur steady decline dekh rahi hai, lekin kuch wajoohat aisi hain jo ke aglay dino mein EUR/USD mein ek significant movement ki umeed barhati hain:

1. Economic Data Releases: Eurozone aur U.S. se aanay wale key economic data releases EUR/USD mein significant movement ka sabab ban sakte hain. Misal ke taur par, GDP growth, unemployment rates, ya inflation figures mein koi unexpected tabdili ho to yeh volatility barha sakti hai. Agar Eurozone economic recovery ke signs dikhata hai ya U.S. ka data disappointing hota hai, toh hum EUR/USD mein reversal ya sharp movement dekh sakte hain.

2. Central Bank Policies: ECB aur Fed ke aanay wale policy decisions bhi bohot ahmiyat rakhte hain. Agar ECB future rate hikes ka hint deta hai ya zyada hawkish tone adopt karta hai, toh euro mazid barh sakta hai, jis se EUR/USD mein upward movement aa sakti hai. Isi tarah, agar Fed apni rate-hiking cycle continue karne ka signal deta hai, toh dollar mazid strong hoga, aur EUR/USD neeche aasakta hai.

3. Geopolitical Events: Geopolitical developments, jaise ke major economies ke darmiyan tensions, trade disputes, ya Eurozone ke andar siyasi instability, bhi is currency pair ko affect kar sakti hain. Misal ke taur par, agar U.S. aur China ke darmiyan trade tensions barhti hain, toh dollar ke liye demand barh sakti hai kyunke woh ek safe-haven asset mana jata hai, jo EUR/USD par asar andaz ho sakta hai.

4. Market Sentiment: Market sentiment currency movements mein ahm role adaa karta hai. Iss waqt market mein cautious sentiment hai, aur investors global economic conditions ko closely monitor kar rahe hain. Lekin agar sentiment mein koi tabdili aati hai, jaise ke risk-on ya risk-off trading ka trend, toh EUR/USD mein significant movement dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Agar investors Eurozone ke economic prospects par wapas confidence hasil karte hain, toh hum current bearish trend mein reversal dekh sakte hain.

Technical Analysis

Technical perspective se dekha jaye toh EUR/USD abhi key support levels ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke short term mein bearish trend continue ho sakta hai. Magar, currency pair oversold conditions ke qareeb bhi hai, jisme Relative Strength Index (RSI) aur Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) jaise technical indicators shamil hain. Yeh signal de sakta hai ke ek potential reversal ya consolidation ka period shuru hone wala hai.

Traders ko key resistance levels par bhi nazar rakhni chahiye, kyunke agar yeh levels break hote hain toh yeh bullish reversal ka aghaz ho sakta hai. Aur agar pair significant support levels ke neeche break karta hai, toh yeh mazid downside ke liye raah bana sakta hai.

Conclusion

Akhir mein, halaan ke EUR/USD abhi bearish trend mein hai aur market dheere chal rahi hai, lekin kuch factors aise hain jo aglay dino mein significant movement ka pata dete hain. Economic data releases, central bank policies, geopolitical events, aur market sentiment mein tabdili sabhi currency pair mein volatility ko trigger kar sakte hain. Traders aur investors ko in factors ko closely monitor karna chahiye taake market mein aane wale opportunities ka faida uthaya ja sake.

Current conditions ko dekhte hue, EUR/USD mein ek bara movement mumkin lagta hai. Yeh movement upar jaayegi ya neeche, yeh un aforementioned factors ke unfold hone par depend karta hai. Is liye, informed rehna aur market changes ke mutabiq apni strategies ko adjust karna bohot zaroori hai.

EUR/USD Forum Analysis, Forecast

M15 Minutes

Sabko good day! M15 chart par linear regression channel ka slope upar ki taraf hai. Iska matlab hai ke buyers ki taqat strong hai aur woh price ko 1.12467 ke level tak le jaane ki koshish kar rahe hain. Target tak pohanchne ke baad movement slow ho jayegi. Volatility ke kamzor hone ki wajah se, market mein thodi si thandak aaegi aur phir correction ki zarurat hogi. Channel ka upper part abhi buying ke liye consider nahi karna chahiye, balki 1.11708 tak correction ka intezaar karna chahiye. Us level se buying mein entry ki soch rakhi ja sakti hai. Agar price 1.11708 ke neeche fix ho jati hai, toh bears ka asar nazar aayega aur market neeche ja sakti hai. Is situation mein buying ka interest kam ho jata hai. Channel ka angle yeh dikha raha hai ke bull kitna active hai — jitna zyada angle hoga, utni strong buyer ki position hogi. Channel ka strong angle zyada tar market news ka asar hota hai, jo achi movement ko support karta hai.






H1 Hour

Main H1 par linear regression channel ko dekh kar movements ka andaaza lagata hoon. M15 channel auxiliary hai jo ke bullish picture ko support kar raha hai, aur growing trend ko highlight kar raha hai. Jab channels ek direction mein move karte hain, toh yeh instrument ka bullish mood dikhata hai. Agar chhoti time frame par signal break ho jata hai, toh humein 1.11255 level tak decline ka intezaar karna chahiye. Us level se buying ka socha ja sakta hai jo ke 1.12124 tak ho sakti hai. Jab bulls channel ke upper boundary par hotay hain, toh mein buying ya selling mein hesitation rakhta hoon, kyunke filhal mujhe yeh dono risky lagte hain. Mere trading ka principle yeh hai ke H1 channel ke direction mein trade karoon, kyunke yeh mera main channel hai. Chhoti time frame ke channel mein entry ko clarify karna achha hota hai, khaaskar jab correction minimal ho aur strong movement ho rahi ho

EUR/USD Prices ka Gahra Jaiza

Aaj hum EUR/USD currency pair ke price behavior par baat aur analysis kar rahe hain. Main daily chart ko zoom out karunga taake long-term sideways channel ko highlight kar saku, jo ke monthly support aur resistance zones ke darmiyan hai. Hum is range mein ek saal se zyada arsay se trade kar rahe hain, aur mera primary target monthly resistance zone ki upper boundary hai. Aane wala movement is baat par depend karta hai ke hum is area ko kaise navigate karte hain—ya toh hum is sideways channel ke andar downward trading algorithm develop karenge, ya phir is zone ke upar break karke bullish trend ko continue karenge. Lekin, yeh sirf meri raye hai. Agle hafte critical EU ka inflation data EUR/USD exchange rate par asar daalega. Forecast ke mutabiq monthly inflation rate 0.1% hai jo ke koi bara market reaction trigger nahi karega, kyunke yeh European Central Bank (ECB) ke rate ko kam karne ke plans ko mutasir nahi karega.

Buyers ne umeed se zyada achi performance dikhayi. Bullish momentum sirf tab mazid strong hota jab predictions 1.10 par hoti, aur maximum move December ke high 1.1139 tak hoti. Khabaron ki wajah se kuch pullbacks ke bawajood, EUR/USD pair ne bullish direction ko wapas hasil kar liya. Aap theek thay twelfth figure ke baray mein, halaan ke move utni tezi se nahi hui jitni kuch logon ne umeed ki thi. Jab ke euro ne thore bearish pullbacks kiye, dollar struggling position mein hai aur lagbhag sabhi currencies ke muqable mein ground lose kar raha hai, siwai kuch cross pairs ke. Bulls ne confidently 1.1049 ko weekly time frame par break kiya hai, aur yeh kam hai ke bears foran price ko neeche push karenge. Situation kafi dramatic tor par badal gayi hai, aur July 2023 ka high 1.1269 ab qareeb hai. Halaanki, bears asani se surrender nahi karenge, lekin phir bhi main is possibility ko consider karta hoon. Agar bulls market opening par tezi se twelfth figure tak pohanch gaye bina momentum lose kiye, toh hum seedha 1.1269 tak move dekh sakte hain.

EUR/USD Ka Halat-e-Hazira Jaiza

Currency pair is waqt 1.1202 ke qareeb hai, jab ke Federal Reserve ne haal hi mein interest rates par apne comments diye hain. Fed ka leja kaafi mohtat raha, jo ke potential rate cuts par ek ehtiyaati rukh ko zahir karta hai. Yeh mohtat approach bohot se market participants ke liye hairan kun thi, jo zyada faislay shuda action ki umeed kar rahe thay. Abhi tak, EUR/USD 1.1181 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai aur recent constraints se nikalne ke liye mushkilat ka samna kar raha hai.

EUR/USD ke Fundamentals:

July ke liye release hui inflation data ne economic outlook ko mazeed pechida bana diya hai. Eurostat ke mutabiq, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) July mein 2.6% barh gayi, jo ke June ke 2.5% se zyada hai aur expected 2.4% ko bhi surpass kar gayi. Is inflation ke barhne se yeh sawal uthta hai ke kya European Central Bank (ECB) apne September ke meeting mein interest rates cut karne ki position mein hoga. Is wajah se Euro mein kuch buying interest dekhi gayi hai, jab ke traders ECB ke rate cut ki sambhawna ko dobara evaluate kar rahe hain.

Market sentiment is waqt ek nazuk dor se guzar raha hai, jahan economic data rate cut expectations par bara asar daal raha hai. CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, traders puri tarah se September 18 ko Fed se ek quarter-point rate cut ko price kar rahe hain, jab ke ek kaan-chaar chance hai ke 50-basis-point ka zyada bara cut ho. Magar agar economic data bohot zyada kamzor hui, toh yeh market sentiment ko nuqsan pohancha sakti hai aur rate cuts ko irrelevant bana sakti hai agar ek shadeed economic downturn ka saamna ho jata hai. Investors is waqt ek mushkil halat mein hain, jahan woh aisi data ki umeed kar rahe hain jo rate cuts ko support kare baghair kisi gehri economic crisis ko zahir kiye.






Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Technically, yeh pair ek critical juncture par hai. Agar yeh pair descending channel ki upper boundary, jo ke is waqt takreeban 1.1220 par hai, ke neeche break karta hai, toh yeh bullish sentiment ko taqat de sakta hai aur pair ko 1.1170 ke level tak le ja sakta hai, jo ek throwback support ka kaam karega. Yeh potential shift pair ko stabilize karne aur aage barhne ka momentum de sakti hai.

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), jo ke ek important momentum indicator hai, abhi tak neutral 50 level se neeche hai, jo ke EUR/USD ke liye bearish outlook ko reinforce karta hai. Magar agar RSI 50 ke qareeb aata hai, toh yeh bearish bias ko kam kar sakta hai aur pair ke liye kuch support faraham kar sakta hai. Yeh movement un traders ke liye ek ahem sign hoga jo reversal ke asaar dekh rahe hain.

EUR/USD Ka Technical Analysis

Pichlay hafta ke aakhir mein, US Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ne kaha ke ab waqt aa gaya hai ke key US interest rate mein kami ki jaye, jis se yeh tasdeeq hoti hai ke aglay mahine se officials borrowing costs ko kam karna shuru karenge. Unhon ne apne iradey ko bhi wazeh kiya ke woh labor market mein mazeed slowdown ko roknay ka irada rakhte hain. Is ka natija yeh hua ke euro, US dollar ke muqable mein EUR/USD resistance level 1.1200 tak barh gaya, jo ke iss currency pair ka aik saal se zyada ka sabse bara level hai. Currency pair ne apni gains ke qareeb close kiya.

Jerome Powell ne apni taqreer mein kaha ke "ab policy ko adjust karne ka waqt aa gaya hai". Yeh bayan unhon ne Kansas City ke Federal Reserve Bank ke annual conference mein diya jo Jackson Hole, Wyoming mein hui thi. Unhon ne mehsoos kiya ke inflation mein behtari ho rahi hai aur labor market mein "wazeh" slowdown aa raha hai. Wall Street ke markets Powell ke is bayan ka intezaar kar rahe thay, taake Federal Reserve ke inflation aur US interest rates par rukh ka andaza lagaya ja sake. Stock market ki positive reactions se yeh zahir hota hai ke investors ne Powell ke bayan ko ek aise qadam ke tor par dekha jo monetary policy ko zyada supportive bana sakta hai.

Kuch Fed officials ne ye bhi kaha ke agar agla jobs report, jo ke 6 September ko aayega, hiring mein mazeed slowdown zahir karta hai, toh half-point rate cut zyada mumkin ho sakta hai. Apni aakhri policy decision mein, Powell ne kaha ke agar U.S. inflation kam hoti rahi, toh rate cut "table par ho sakta hai" Fed ke aglay meeting mein jo September mein hogi.






Dusri taraf, Germany ke mazeed kamzor data ne euro ke gains ko kamzor kar diya, halaan ke overall eurozone data zyada positive tha. Economic calendar ke mutabiq, German manufacturing PMI mazeed kam ho kar 43.2 se 42.1 par aa gaya, jo ke pichlay mahine ke muqablay mein paanch maheenon ka sabse kam level hai aur expectations se bhi neeche tha. Services sector expand ho raha tha, lekin wo bhi expectations par poora nahi utra aur paanch maheenon ka sabse kam level touch kiya. “Yeh numbers waqai mein kaafi bure hain,” Hamburg Commerzbank ke chief economist Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia ne kaha. Germany ke manufacturing sector ki mandi August mein aur gehri hoti gayi aur kisi recovery ka koi asar nazar nahi aa raha. Asal mein, naye orders pichlay mahine ke muqable mein bohot ziada kam ho gaye, jo mazeed mushkilat ki nishani hai.

Isi waqt, Eurozone ka services PMI thoda behtari ka signal de raha tha, jo ke pehle ke 51.9 se barh kar 53.3 tak chala gaya, aur consensus expectations se bhi zyada tha. Eurozone mein output prices chaar maheenon mein sabse tez raftaar se barhi, jo European Central Bank ke liye kuch fikar ka sabab ho sakti hai.

Aaj Ka EUR/USD Ka Forecast:

Daily chart par performance ke mutabiq, Euro US Dollar ke muqable mein upward trajectory par hai aur apni gains par qaim reh sakta hai jab tak ke markets aur investors Eurozone ke inflation figures aur US inflation readings, jo ke US Federal Reserve ke liye maqbool hain, ka intezaar kar rahe hain. Is baat ko madde nazar rakha jaye ke recent gains ne technical indicators ko strong overbought levels tak pohancha diya hai. Agar US inflation expectations se zyada barh gayi, toh Euro Dollar ko strong profit-taking ka samna ho sakta hai. Current uptrend ka break tabhi ho sakta hai jab pair 1.0975 ke support level ke neeche jaye.

Hamari guftagu EUR/USD currency pair ke price behavior par hai. EUR/USD pair ke liye, main US session ke khatam hone aur Asian session ke shuru hone ka intezar kar raha tha, magar growth Asian market tak bhi jaari rahi. 1.1051-71 point par main aik slow down aur reversal ki umeed kar raha tha. Lekin jab maine lambi candlesticks dekhi, toh lagta hai ke hum 13 figures ki taraf barh sakte hain. Ideally, mujhe pehle rollback dekhna acha lagega, lekin yeh kehna mushkil hai ke price kahan settle hogi. Phir bhi, growth mazboot hai. Volume ke hisaab se 1.0936 tak ka correction mumkin hai, magar candlesticks ke indicators kuch aur hi keh rahe hain. Ab main kal ke US session ka intezar kar raha hoon. Mahina growth ke sath close hoga, shayad shadow ke sath, magar filhal buy trades shayad achi rahe. US fundamentals itne strong nahi hain, EU economy ke muqablay mein. Daily scale par, euro-dollar buyers 1.0603 ke low se upward trend ko drive kar rahe hain, pehla impulse zone target 1.1110 hai. Pichle high 1.1140 se downward fan ka last angle aaj tha, isliye yeh bullish extreme aane ke chances hain. EUR/USD pair aaj apni highs par close hone ke qareeb hai, aur trading ke end se pehle bearish pullback ki umeed kam hai. Filhal, hum sirf observe kar sakte hain. Daily chart par nearest significant support 1.0916 hai, magar mujhe is level tak rapid drop ki umeed nahi. Upward trend indicates karta hai ke buyers abhi bhi sellers par dominant hain. Choti-moti pullbacks ke bawajood, bulls control mein hain aur bears ko control dene ko tayyar nahi hain. Zigzag line confirm karti hai ke long positions open kana sahi rahega. MACD aur RSI indicators bhi long

Aaj, Monday ko, hum D1 period ka EURUSD currency pair ka chart dekhain ge. Wave structure upward direction mein hai, aur MACD indicator bhi upper purchase zone mein barh raha hai, signal line se upar. Guzishta trading hafta ne bears ko koi mauqa nahi diya. Din ke dauran jo choti corrections aayi, woh bhi mushkil se hui. Market ek dum upar push ho raha tha, jaise koi jack ke zariye utha raha ho. Lagta tha ke ab neeche girne ka waqt aa gaya hai, magar Wednesday ki candle itni choti thi ke lagta tha ke yeh girawat ka signal hai. Agle din girawat ko develop karne ki koshish hui, magar dekhain ke kya anjaam hua. Pure din halki si girawat ke sath market ruk gayi aur lagta tha ke kafi sellers ne yeh socha ke ab price itni height se zaroor neeche aayegi. Magar phir Friday ko jab US ki ahem news aayi, toh sab kuch badal gaya.

US Federal Reserve ke head Jerome Powell ki speech hui aur saath hi nayi housing sales ke data ne market ko hila diya. Is news ke baad price achanak aur taqat se upar chali gayi. Shayad kaafi logon ke accounts is move se jal gaye, kam az kam bohot logon ke stops lag gaye. Sirf euro ke muqable mein hi nahi, US dollar pooray market mein kamzor hua.

Agar hum first wave ke bottom par Fibonacci grid lagain, toh dekh sakte hain ke target poora ho chuka hai - 161.8 ka level hit ho gaya hai aur ab shayad hum 200 level tak pohanch sakain. Jab ke minimum target poora ho chuka hai, aur price pichlay saal 2023 ke aakhri maximum se aagay nikal gayi hai, toh yeh aik potential sales zone ho sakta hai. CCI indicator ab upper overheating zone mein hai aur wahan se bahar nikalne ke liye tayyar hai. Yahan hum mirror level ki formation dekh sakte hain choti period par, misal ke tor par H1 chart par.

Waisay bhi, guzishta hafton mein US dollar kafi kamzor hua hai aur market mein ek correction ka intezar hai. Doosri currency pairs bhi apni strong support ya resistance zones par hain. Agar hum choti, yani 4-hour chart par dekhein, toh MACD indicator bearish divergence dikhata hai

Euro FOREX market ki sabse liquid trading instruments mein se ek hai. Isliye sirf analysis karna nahi balke usko confirm bhi karna zaroori hai. Aaj itwaar hai aur raat ka waqt ho raha hai, jo matlab hai ke Monday ke liye tayaar rehna chahiye jab trading open hogi. Jo log der raat tak jagte hain ya subah jaldi uthte hain, wo pending orders place kar sakte hain euro kharidne ke liye jab market open hogi.

Jumeraat ko, humne hourly timeframe pe ek buy signal dekha. Jab main signal ke baare mein baat karta hoon, to mera matlab exponential moving averages se hai. Pehle chart pe red rectangle mein is signal candle ko mark kiya hai. Yeh zaroori hai ke growth bina pullback ke bhi chal sakti hai, matlab market open hone par yeh upar ki taraf chalti reh sakti hai. Is surat mein, pair sirf 1 to 1 ka risk to reward ratio achieve kar sakti hai. Lekin, pending orders ko levels 1.11477 aur/ya 1.11332 pe place kiya ja sakta hai. Pehle case mein, potential ratio 1 to 2 achieve kiya ja sakta hai, aur doosre case mein - 1 to 3. Lekin hourly timeframe pe is tarah ke setups ke madde nazar, zyada tar 1 to 1 ka outcome hota hai. Phir bhi, try karne ke layak hai aur buy limit order place karna chahiye.

Daily chart pe bhi hum wahi situation dekh rahe hain, lekin yeh puri tarah se yahan nazar aa rahi hai. Fibonacci grid percentage line ke tor par stretch ki gayi hai, jahan signal level 50% level hai. Hamari bullish idea mein, stop ko 0.0% level ke peechay place kiya jata hai, yani 1.10979 ke mark ke peechay. Yeh zaroori hai ke isme spread gap bhi rakha jaye, jo har trader ke liye alag ho sakta hai. Jaisa ke aapne andaza lagaya, target levels is line ke basis pe 100% mark par hain, ie price level 1.12475. Buying tab bhi mumkin hai agar market signal level ke paas phir se aati hai, lekin us surat mein ratio 1 to 1 hoga. Aise ratios market mein aksar dekhe jate hain, aur ratios 1 to 2 ya usse zyada kam hi hote hain

Meri subah ki forecast mein, maine 1.0931 level ko highlight kiya aur is par apne trading decisions ko base kiya. Aaiye 5-minute chart ko dekhte hain aur analyze karte hain ke kya hua. 1.0931 ke qareeb ki Kami hui, lekin yahan false breakout nahi hua. Is liye, main first half of the day mein market se bahar reh gaya. Technical outlook ko second half of the day ke liye reassess kiya gaya.
EUR/USD ke liye Long Positions Kholne Ke Liye:
Euro ne ZEW index data ke response mein predictably Kami ki, phir pressure ease hui, market ko stabilize kiya. Traders ke paas clear guidance nahi hai, jo market volatility ko affect karta hai. Second half of the day mein, hum US Producer Price Index (PPI) aur NFIB Small Business Optimism Index ke report ki ummeed karte hain. FOMC member Raphael Bostic ka speech bhi attention attract karega, especially agar data mein producer prices ki Kami dikhai deti hai, September mein half-point rate cut ke argument ko strengthen karti hai. Long positions kholne ke liye, main decline ki ummeed karta hoon aur new support level 1.0911 ke qareeb false breakout ki formation ki ummeed karta hoon.

EUR/USD ke liye Short Positions Kholne Ke Liye:
Sellers ne control maintain kiya. 1.0940 ko defend karna aur false breakout se short positions kholna appropriate scenario hoga. Target 1.0911 ke support tak Kami hoga. Breakout aur consolidation is range ke neeche, bottom-up retest ke saath, another selling point provide karega 1.0884 ke qareeb, jahan main buyer interest ki ummeed karta hoon. Sab se dur target 1.0855 ke area hoga, jahan main profit lena plan karta hoon

Hamari guftagu EUR/USD price action assessment ke haalaat par markooz hai. Kal ke trading main, EURUSD currency pair ne bearish movement show kiya aur D1 time frame par ek bearish candle form kiya. Jab market subah band hui, tab EURUSD ka price 1.1164 tha, jo ke pichle din ke opening price se kam tha. H1 time frame par candle ka position MA 24 line ke neeche hai aur MA 24 line se door move karne ki potential rakhta hai. Stochastic indicator 5.3.3 level 20 ke range main hai, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke seller market ko control karne ki koshish kar raha hai.

Fundamental perspective se dekha jaye, to USD index kal ke trading main ab bhi strong dikhai de raha hai aur dheere dheere majboot ho raha hai. Isliye technical aur fundamental analysis ke basis par aaj EURUSD currency pair ke bearish trend continue hone ki ummeed hai. Hum is pair main sell opportunities dekh sakte hain, magar mm (money management) ko sahi se implement karna zaroori hai taake account ki resilience barqarar rahe. Mere trading plan ke mutabiq, aaj main 1.1164 par sell order place karunga, profit target 1.1134 par hoga aur stop loss 1.1194 par rakha jayega. Lot volume ko trading account ki resilience ke mutabiq adjust karenge. Ye trading journal update hai jo main subah share kar raha hoon, ummeed hai ke yeh useful aur samajhne layak hoga.



Meri advice yeh hai ke careful raha jaye, halanke position candlestick ke upar hai, lekin MA standard level settings ka hai, jo 50, 100, ya 200 se bara nahi hai. Price indicator ko break karne ka potential bhi rakhti hai. Down signal ke sath agree karte hue bhi, stop loss zaroor lagaye, mere khayal se previous highest price ke upar honi chahiye. Aaj bhi price upar move karne ke chances hain, kyunki Monday ko price girne ke bawajood, Friday ke market close se niche nahi gayi. Stop Loss ko 1.1200 par rakhe aur closest target support level 1.1130 par set kare. Mere graph, jo stochastic oscillator indicator use karta hai, wo upar ki taraf point kar raha hai aur determination area mein hai aur cloud mein enter nahi hua. Mere opinion main, ab buy transaction open karna sahi waqt hai, jo ke aapke analysis ke opposite hai.

EURUSD dusre din ke liye niche trade kar rahi hai aur blue moving average ke neeche wapas aa gayi hai chaar ghante ke chart par, jo ke continued decline ka ishara hai, aur support 1.0877 par mil raha hai. Is measure par poora bharosa nahi hai. Indicators already bohot strong oversold conditions dikhate hain, aur bulls ke market mein wapas aane ki possibility ko nazar andaz nahi kiya ja sakta. Isliye, agar quotes 1.0877 level ke neeche rehti hain, to main downward trend ke continue hone ki ummeed karta hoon. Doosri scenario ko bhi nahi bhoolna chahiye, agar quotes 1.0927 resistance ke upar wapas aati hain, to main long-term rise aur ek aur uchaai ki ummeed karta hoon.
EUR/USD pair taqatwar bullish trends ka dikhawa kar raha hai. Yeh behad nichay 1.1000 ke levels se tezi se ubhar raha hai, chand waqton ke liye 1.0950 se oopar chala gaya hai. Pair ne 200-din EMA par 1.0826 se bhi guzar gaya hai, jo taqatwar short-term bullish sentiment ko zahir karta hai. Yeh technical tor par breakthrough yeh darust karta hai ke upri trend jari reh sakta hai, traders resistance levels aur potential breakout points ko qareeb se nigrani me rakhte hue.
Ikhtisar mein, Euro ke US Dollar ke muqable mein haal ki quwwat ko kamzor US economic indicators aur European markets mein itminani sentiment ka milaap mana jata hai. Jab EUR/USD pair ahem resistance levels ke qareeb pounchega, market participants qareeb aanay wale economic data aur geopolitical developments ko nigrani me rakhtay hue is currency pair ke mustaqbil ke harkaton par asar dalne wale cheezon ka tawaju se intezar karenge.
Iske ilawa, technical analysis ke context mein, yeh scenario naye participants ko bhi attract kar sakta hai jo pehle cautious ya bullish trend ke confirmation ka wait kar rahe the. In technical indicators ka alignment unhe confirmation data hai, jo ek stronger conviction offer karta hai ke uptrend sustainable hai. Yeh increased participation bullish momentum ko further fuel kar sakta hai, jise naye buyers existing upward pressure ko add karte hain.
Summary yeh hai ke price ka 100-period SMA ke upar hona weekly chart par, aur positive oscillator readings ke sath, currency pair ke liye strong bullish momentum ka indication hai. Yeh technical setup yeh darshata hai ke upward pressure likely hai ke continue rahega, kyunki yeh price action aur momentum indicators dono ke sath well-supported trend ko reflect karta hai. Traders aur investors isse bullish signal ke roop mein dekhenge, jo continued buying aur near term mein further price appreciation ki taraf le ja sakta hai

Tuesday ke trading session mein New York mein, EUR/USD currency pair mein aik nihayat buland izafa dekha gaya, 1.1010 ke ahem resistance level ke qareeb pounch gaya. Yeh izafa Euro ki qeemat mein US Dollar ke muqable mein taqatwar izafa ko numaya karta hai. Mojudah doran mein, EUR/USD 1.0926 ke qareeb trading ho raha hai, forex market mein barqarar bullish momentum ka dikhawa kartay hue. Euro ki qadr ka is izafa ne US Dollar par barhti hui dabao ke sath aiqtadar-e-uzma aur karobar ke dataon ke zariye chal raha pressure ko milta hai. US Economic Indicators aur Inke Asar Dollar Par
Haal hi mein aaye hue economic data United States ke Dollar par numaya asar andaz hue hain. July mein ISM Services PMI 48.8 par gira, jo April 2020 se sab se tezi se girawat thi. Yeh huliya kisi had tak umeed se kum tha jo 52.5 tha aur June ke 53.8 se gir gaya tha. Is ke ilawa, ADP Employment report ne bataya ke US private jagahon par sirf 150,000 naye jobs shamil hue July mein - jise 160,000 ka tasavvur kiya gaya tha, aur yeh paanch mahinon mein sab se choti izafa tha. Yeh data points kamzor hote hui economic conditions ka ishara dete hain aur US Dollar par pressure dalte hain.

European Market Sentiment aur Bond Yield Spread

Europe mein, market sentiment bond yields ke tabadlay se mutasir hota hai. French aur German 10 saal ke hakoomati bonds ke darmiyan yield spread haal hi mein karib 71 basis points tak ghata, jo pichle mahine ke end par 82 basis points se nichay tha. Yeh kam hone wala spread yeh zahir karta hai ke investors mein barhtay huay itminan hai ke France ke far-right RN party ko majlis-e-shura mein bari bahali hasil karna mushkil hai. Yeh sentiment mein tabdeeli ne France ke assets ko taqat di hai aur Euro ki puri shidat mein pechida hai.

EUR/USD ki Technical Analysis

Ek technical lehaz se, EUR/USD pair taqatwar bullish trends ka dikhawa kar raha hai. Yeh behad nichay 1.1000 ke levels se tezi se ubhar raha hai, chand waqton ke liye 1.0950 se oopar chala gaya hai. Pair ne 200-din EMA par 1.0826 se bhi guzar gaya hai, jo taqatwar short-term bullish sentiment ko zahir karta hai. Yeh technical tor par breakthrough yeh darust karta hai ke upri trend jari reh sakta hai, traders resistance levels aur potential breakout points ko qareeb se nigrani me rakhte hue.

Ikhtisar mein, Euro ke US Dollar ke muqable mein haal ki quwwat ko kamzor US economic indicators aur European markets mein itminani sentiment ka milaap mana jata hai. Jab EUR/USD pair ahem resistance levels ke qareeb pounchega, market participants qareeb aanay wale economic data aur geopolitical developments ko nigrani me rakhtay hue is currency pair ke mustaqbil ke harkaton par asar dalne wale cheezon ka tawaju se intezar karenge

EUR/USD ne 1.0958 ki demand area ko penetrate karne mein nakam hone ke baad phir se izafa dekhaya. Kal Friday ko EUR/USD ki movement kaafi zyada thi kyunki candle ne 1.0971 se 1.1028 tak move kiya. Agar yeh calculate kiya jaye, toh iska matlab hai ke EUR/USD kareeban 60 pips upar gaya. Thoda aur izafa, aur candle 1.1048 ke resistance ko touch kar legi. Do din pehle EUR/USD ki movement kaafi neeche chali gayi thi, lekin yeh zyada dair tak nahi rahi kyunki movement sirf 1.0958 tak gayi. Shayad EUR/USD ka yeh girna sirf ek correction tha.
Agar h1 timeframe se analyze kiya jaye, toh meri prediction yeh hai ke jab tak demand area 1.0958 par penetrate nahi hota, EUR/USD ke upar jane ke chances abhi bhi kaafi zyada hain. Lekin kyunki candle ab shoulder area mein hai, mujhe ehtiyaat karni chahiye, kyunki yahan se ek retracement ho sakta hai jo EUR/USD ko phir se neeche la sakta hai. Shoulder ka area 1.1028 par hai. Agar waqai mein EUR/USD shoulder area mein reverse hota hai, toh yeh pehle 1.0930 par gir sakta hai. Mera umeed hai ke shoulder area jaldi penetrate ho jaye kyunki lambi muddat mein meri prediction yeh hai ke EUR/USD upar jayega.

Ichimoku indicator se dekha jaye toh candle ka position tenkan sen aur kijun sen lines ke upar hai, jo yeh signal deta hai ke aane wale waqt mein EUR/USD ke upar jane ke chances abhi bhi hain. Iske ilawa, white kumo penetrate ho chuki hai aur iska color brown mein tabdeel ho gaya hai, jo yeh bhi indicate karta hai ke buyer ka pressure zyada ho raha hai. Lekin candle ke shoulder area mein rukne se yeh bhi mumkin hai ke yeh dono lines cross kar jayein aur EUR/USD phir se neeche gir jaye.

Stochastic indicator se bhi yeh idea milta hai ke EUR/USD overbought condition mein hai, kyunki line ne h1 timeframe par 80 level ko penetrate kar liya hai. Lekin abhi ke liye yeh line upar ki taraf hai, chahe condition overbought hi kyu na ho. Filhaal koi neeche jane ke signs nazar nahi aa rahe. Neeche girne ki condition tab hogi jab yeh line neeche ki taraf move karegi.

EUR/USD ne 1.0958 ki demand area ko penetrate karne mein nakam hone ke baad phir se izafa dekhaya. Kal Friday ko EUR/USD ki movement kaafi zyada thi kyunki candle ne 1.0971 se 1.1028 tak move kiya. Agar yeh calculate kiya jaye, toh iska matlab hai ke EUR/USD kareeban 60 pips upar gaya. Thoda aur izafa, aur candle 1.1048 ke resistance ko touch kar legi. Do din pehle EUR/USD ki movement kaafi neeche chali gayi thi, lekin yeh zyada dair tak nahi rahi kyunki movement sirf 1.0958 tak gayi. Shayad EUR/USD ka yeh girna sirf ek correction tha.
Agar h1 timeframe se analyze kiya jaye, toh meri prediction yeh hai ke jab tak demand area 1.0958 par penetrate nahi hota, EUR/USD ke upar jane ke chances abhi bhi kaafi zyada hain. Lekin kyunki candle ab shoulder area mein hai, mujhe ehtiyaat karni chahiye, kyunki yahan se ek retracement ho sakta hai jo EUR/USD ko phir se neeche la sakta hai. Shoulder ka area 1.1028 par hai. Agar waqai mein EUR/USD shoulder area mein reverse hota hai, toh yeh pehle 1.0930 par gir sakta hai. Mera umeed hai ke shoulder area jaldi penetrate ho jaye kyunki lambi muddat mein meri prediction yeh hai ke EUR/USD upar jayega.

Ichimoku indicator se dekha jaye toh candle ka position tenkan sen aur kijun sen lines ke upar hai, jo yeh signal deta hai ke aane wale waqt mein EUR/USD ke upar jane ke chances abhi bhi hain. Iske ilawa, white kumo penetrate ho chuki hai aur iska color brown mein tabdeel ho gaya hai, jo yeh bhi indicate karta hai ke buyer ka pressure zyada ho raha hai. Lekin candle ke shoulder area mein rukne se yeh bhi mumkin hai ke yeh dono lines cross kar jayein aur EUR/USD phir se neeche gir jaye.

Stochastic indicator se bhi yeh idea milta hai ke EUR/USD overbought condition mein hai, kyunki line ne h1 timeframe par 80 level ko penetrate kar liya hai. Lekin abhi ke liye yeh line upar ki taraf hai, chahe condition overbought hi kyu na ho. Filhaal koi neeche jane ke signs nazar nahi aa rahe. Neeche girne ki condition tab hogi jab yeh line neeche ki taraf move karegi.

European session mein Monday ko, EURUSD 1.1200 se retreat kar gaya, jo ke ek saal se ziada arsay ka sabse uncha point samjha ja raha tha. Is ke bawajood, yeh currency pair ab bhi favorable position mein hai, halan ke US dollar ab bhi disadvantage mein hai, jab se Federal Reserve ne September mein rate cut kiya hai. US dollar index, jo ke US dollar ko chay ahem currencies ke against map karta hai, ne salana low 100.53 touch kiya, lekin usay koi bottom nahi mila. Is hafta US dollar ke liye sab se bada catalyst Friday ko release hone wala core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) data ho sakta hai jo ke July ka hai. Fed ka pasandeeda inflation gauge hai aur yeh 0.2% ke mustaqil pace par har mahine barhne ki umeed hai. ECB ke chief economist Philip Lane ne Saturday ko JH seminar mein kaha ke financial coverage expect ki ja rahi hai ke limited hogi. EUR/USD ke liye umeed hai ke yeh apna November 2022 se behtareen mahana performance record kare ga. Fiber ne chothi week of buying aur selling floors mein successful raha hai bids ke saath jo ke 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.0832 se bohot upar hain, Monday ke technical retreat ke bawajood. Weekly chart par, EURUSD tezi se 1.1200 par trade kar raha hai, jo ke ek positive reversal ko zahir karta hai. Jab significant currency pair ne Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern ko break kiya, to yeh mazid strong ho gaya. Aik bearish downturn ka imkana hai aur positive momentum ki kami ke bawajood, interest rates ko 50-day EMA level of 1.0925 ki taraf girna chahiye, halan ke EUR/USD ek bull market mein mazid solid bids kar raha hai. Upper side par, July 2023 ka high 1.1275 par Euro ke liye agla target hoga.

Aakhri movement ka jayeza lete hue, mein M15 use karta hoon, phir base price ne abhi dynamic resistance ke against ek candlestick breakout kiya hai, yani Bollinger Bands ki top line ke against, iske ilawa price ne pehle se bani black trend line ko bhi cross kiya hai, is liye yeh is haftay 1.1273 - 1.1300 ke resistance ki taraf barhne ko trigger kar sakta hai, jab ke stop loss limit jo pehle mention ki gayi thi wo 1.1150 ke level ke qareeb ya sirf 20 - 25 pips ki range mein hai, is liye ab buy trading option liya ja sakta hai, kyun ke price discount zone mein hai, yani Red EMA200, halan ke trend ab tak upar ki taraf hai, yani bullish.

Kal, halan ke jo downward trial tha us ke bawajood, lagta hai ke EURUSD ab tak EMA50 ko cross karne mein thodi mushkil ka samna kar raha hai aur shayad yeh EURUSD ke liye poori tarah bearish banne mein rukawat ho sakti hai. Lekin, mera asasi focus ab bhi EURUSD par yeh hi hai ke shayad main phir se selling opportunities dekhoon, kam az kam main ab bhi wait kar raha hoon ke EURUSD pehle EMA50 area ko cross kare, phir main sell karne ki koshish karoonga, jiska target kam az kam itna hoga ke important area 1.110 tak pohonch sake.