یورپی ڈالر بمقابلہ امریکی ڈالر

Aaj hum ek mutazad situation ka mushahida kar rahe hain. Kal sellers ke liye acha din tha, price shuru mein upar gayi aur 1.0942 ke mirror level tak pohnch gayi, jahan support resistance mein tabdeel ho gaya. Jaise ke ummeed thi, is level se achi khaasi decline hui. Lekin price ko zyada girne ki ijaazat nahi di gayi. Neeche ke breakthrough ke baad, sari decline achanak ruk gayi aur ek compensation movement shuru ho gayi. Halankeh price 1.0903 ke level ke neeche band hui, lekin yeh level ka false breakout tha - ek upward movement ka signal. Filhal, hum beech mein atke hue hain, dono directions mein barabar ke chances hain. Buyers ke haq mein, chaar ghante ke chart aur higher daily chart par ek ascending wave structure nazar aa raha hai. Iske ilawa, do higher periods wale MACD indicator overbought zone mein hain. Lekin, selling ke haq mein bhi kuch arguments hain.

Daily chart par decline ke liye ek strong argument hai - MACD indicator par bearish divergence. Aur, dusra indicator bhi zyada downside suggest kar raha hai kyunki yeh recently overbought zone se neeche aaya hai. Price ek ascending channel mein hai aur isne apni top se bounce kiya hai, jo ek potential downward cycle ka indication hai, khaaskar upar ki strong resistances ko dekhte hue. Indirectly decline ko support kar raha hai EURGBP cross rate, jo ab ek significant rise ke baad decrease kar raha hai. Dusri taraf, GBPUSD pair ek lambi decline ke baad upward correction se guzra hai, jo yahan growth ke liye favorable hai. Jaise ke maine pehle kaha, yeh ek mutazad situation hai - kal clear thi lekin aaj nahi. Aaj economic calendar mein koi significant news events nahi hain.

Meri subah ke forecast mein, maine 1.0931 ke level par focus kiya aur us point se trading decisions lene ka plan banaya. Humein 5-minute chart ka jaiza lena chahiye aur dekhna chahiye ke kya hua. Price 1.0931 ke area tak uthi, lekin koi false breakout nahi hua, isliye maine din ke pehle half mein market mein entry nahi di. Nateeja yeh raha ke maine subah ke session ke dauran koi trades nahi ki. Technical picture ko din ke doosre half ke liye revise nahi kiya gaya.

**EUR/USD par Long Positions kholne ke liye:**
Germany aur Italy se aayi data ne expected volatility spike ko trigger nahi kiya. Chunan, jab tak dopahar mein koi significant statistics nahi hain, hafte ka end kafi dull aur uneventful ho sakta hai. Isliye, main market mein enter karne ke liye jaldi nahi karunga. Main decline aur naye support level 1.0907 ke aas paas ek false breakout ka intezaar karunga, jo kal ke results ke basis par bana hai. Target hoga upar jana aur naye resistance 1.0931 ka retest karna, jahan main expect karta hoon ke sellers emerge karna shuru karenge. Is range ka breakout aur baad mein top se bottom tak ka retest pair ko strengthen kar sakta hai, 1.0958 ki taraf rise ka chance dekar. Sabse door target 1.0985 hoga, jahan main profits fix karunga. Agar EUR/USD decline karti hai aur doosre half of the day mein 1.0907 ke aas paas koi activity nahi hoti, to sellers initiative ko wapas le sakte hain aur downward trend build karna shuru kar sakte hain. Is case mein, main sirf 1.0884 ke aas paas ek false breakout ke baad entry consider karunga. Main 1.0855 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan bana raha hoon, intraday correction ka target 30-35 points hoga.

**EUR/USD par Short Positions kholne ke liye:**
Sellers abhi bhi initiative ko maintain kar rahe hain. Jab tak significant U.S. statistics nahi hain, 1.0931 ko false breakout ke saath defend karna short positions kholne ke liye ek suitable scenario hoga, jiska target 1.0907 ke support tak girna hoga, jo kal ke results ke basis par bana hai. Is range ka breakout aur iske neeche consolidation ke baad, neeche se upar ka retest selling ke liye ek aur entry point provide karega, jahan movement 1.0884 ki taraf hoga, jahan main expect karta hoon ke zyada active buyers dekhenge. Sabse door target 1.0855 hoga, jahan main profits fix karunga. Is level ka test buyers ke uptrend banane ke plans ko negate karega. Agar EUR/USD din ke doosre half mein upar jati hai aur 1.0931 par bears nahi hote, to buyers ko initiative wapas milne ka chance hoga. Is case mein, main sales ko agle resistance 1.0958 ke test tak postpone kar dunga. Main wahan bhi act karne ka plan bana raha hoon, lekin sirf unsuccessful consolidation ke baad. Main 1.0985 se rebound par short positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, short-term downward correction ka target 30-35 points hoga.

Aaj subah ke forecast mein, maine 1.0931 level par focus kiya aur is par trading decisions lene ki planning ki. 5-minute chart ko dekhte hain aur dekhen ke kya hua. 1.0931 ke qareeb ek rise dekha gaya, lekin koi false breakout nahi bana. Is wajah se, maine din ke pehle hissa mein trading se gurez kiya. Technical picture ko din ke dusre hissa ke liye revise nahi kiya.

EUR/USD par long positions open karne ke liye:
Germany se aane wale data ne predictably volatility mein koi spike nahi paida kiya. Aur jab din ke dusre hissa mein koi economic data nahi hai, to shuruat ka hafta pichle hafte ki akhir ki tarah ho sakta hai. Is wajah se, main market mein foran nahi jaunga. Main 1.0907 support level par decline aur false breakout ke formation ka intezar karunga jo pichle hafte mein bana tha, long positions open karne se pehle. Target hoga rise karna aur 1.0931 resistance level ko update karna, jahan mujhe pehli baar euro sellers ke asaar nazar aate hain. Agar is range ka breakout hota hai aur upar se retest hota hai, to pair mazid majboot ho sakta hai, jo 1.0958 level ki taraf rise ko badha sakta hai. Sabse door ka target 1.0985 high hoga, jahan main profit book karunga. Agar EUR/USD decline hota hai aur 1.0907 ke qareeb koi significant activity nahi hoti, to sellers initiative ko wapas le sakte hain aur downward trend shuru kar sakte hain. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.0884 ke qareeb false breakout ke formation ke baad hi enter karunga. Main 1.0855 se rebound par long positions open karunga, din mein 30-35 point upward correction ka target hoga.

EUR/USD par short positions open karne ke liye:
Sellers ab bhi control mein hain. U.S. statistics ki kami ko dekhte hue, 1.0931 ko protect karna, jaise pichle Friday ko, combined with a false breakout, short positions open karne ke liye ek acha scenario hoga, jiska target 1.0907 support hoga. Agar is range ka breakout hota hai aur neeche se retest hota hai, to ek aur selling point milega, jiska target 1.0884 hoga, jahan zyada active buyer involvement ki ummeed hai. Sabse door ka target 1.0855 level hoga, jahan main profit book karunga. Agar EUR/USD din ke dusre hissa mein rise hota hai aur 1.0931 par sellers nahi hain, to buyers ko initiative wapas mil sakta hai. Is surat mein, main selling ko 1.0958 ke next resistance test karne tak postpone karunga. Wahan bhi action lunga, lekin sirf failed consolidation ke baad. Main 1.0985 se rebound par short positions open karunga, din mein 30-35 point downward correction ka target hoga.

Bulls price ko girne nahi de rahe, unki mehnat aur azm barqarar hai. Filhal market ke high ke aas-paas, half margin zone 1.0924-1.0916 mein aik intense mukabla chal raha hai.

Ab dekhte hain, kaun jeet ta hai. Technical analysis ke mutabiq, EURUSD mein upar ki taraf jaane ke signals hain. Jumme ke din, nazdeek ka descending correction line toot gaya, phir sellers ne price ko neeche push karne ki koshish ki aur broken descending line ko test bhi kiya. Lekin unke paas itni taqat nahi thi ke EURUSD ko neeche push kar sakein.

Ab dekhte hain ke Asians ne dobara euro ko pick karna shuru kar diya hai. Yeh lagta hai ke price upar ki taraf break kar sakti hai aur full margin zone 1.0945-1.0962 ko test kar sakti hai. Yeh zone market mein nearest resistance ke taur par kaam kar raha hai aur yahaan se euro ka agla direction decide ho sakta hai.

Agar bulls zone 1.0945-1.0962 ko phir se break nahi kar paate, to mujhe lagta hai ke EURUSD pair phir se corrective zigzag move karega neeche ki taraf, 8th figure ke paas. Is dafa target pehle se broken half zone 1.0861-1.0869 ke taraf ho sakta hai.

Lekin agar zone 1.0945-1.0962 hold nahi hoti, to euro ko previous high test karne ka achha moka mil sakta hai, jo ke shayad 10th figure ke shuruat mein ho.

Agar yeh zone nahi hold hoti aur price isse upar chalti hai, to euro ka positive momentum barh sakta hai aur yeh previous high ko retest kar sakta hai. Is scenario mein, traders ko dekhna hoga ke price kis direction mein ja rahi hai aur market ki conditions ke mutabiq apni trading strategies adjust karni hongi.

Yeh meri analysis hai.

Foreign exchange market, khaaskar EUR/USD currency pair, is waqt bohat hi complex dynamics se guzra raha hai jo economic aur political factors ke mix se shape ho rahi hain. Aik bara driver jo recent movements ko influence kar raha hai, wo yeh hai ke U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) ke interest rates cut karne ki expectation barh rahi hai. Yeh expectation Euro ke liye support provide kar rahi hai against U.S. Dollar, jabke France mein political uncertainty Eurozone ke economic stability ke liye risk bana hua hai Market participants Fed ke signals ko closely monitor kar rahe hain, aur yeh consensus barh raha hai ke central bank rate cuts initiate kar sakta hai September tak. Yeh shift mainly U.S. economic data ke softer honay ki wajah se hai, jisme slower job growth, declining inflationary pressures, aur current economic expansion ki sustainability ka concern shamil hain. Investors ab yeh possibility price kar rahe hain ke Fed apni monetary policy ko ease kare ga taake economic growth ko sustain kare aur recession ke potential ko prevent kar sake
Lower U.S. interest rates ki anticipation U.S. Dollar ko weak karti hai, kyunke lower rates dollar-denominated assets pe returns ko kam karte hain, jo investors ke liye kam attractive hote hain. Is liye, Euro is dynamic se benefit kar raha hai, jabke investors higher-yielding ya zyada stable alternatives dhoond rahe hain. EUR/USD pair ne positive bias dikhayi hai, jisme Euro ne recent trading sessions mein Dollar ke muqable mein ground gain kiya hai
Lekin Euro ki strength ko France mein barh rahi political uncertainty se threat hai, jo Eurozone ki bara economy hai. French government ko widespread protests aur strikes ka samna karna par raha hai, khaaskar pension reforms ke proposed changes ki wajah se. In domestic issues ne concerns ko janam diya hai ke France mein economic disruption ho sakta hai, jo Eurozone ke liye broader implications rakh sakta hai
France ka political situation Euro ke outlook mein complexity ka aik layer add kar raha hai. Jabke Fed ke potential rate cuts Euro ko support de rahe hain, lekin agar France ke political tensions escalate hote hain, to yeh Euro mein investor confidence ko undermine kar sakti hai. Yeh EUR/USD pair ke liye aik delicate balancing act ban gaya hai, jahan traders Fed policy ke supportive effects ko weigh kar rahe hain against Eurozone mein political instability ke risks ke khilaf
Akhir mein, EUR/USD exchange rate ek tug-of-war se shape ho rahi hai between Fed ke rate cuts ki expectations aur France mein political uncertainty. Jabke easier U.S. monetary policy ka prospect Euro ko bolster kar raha hai, France mein situation Euro ke gains ko limit karne ka risk factor bana hua hai. Market participants likely Fed ke actions aur France mein developments ko closely monitor karte rahenge jabke yeh challenging market dynamics se navigate karte hain

EurUsd market ki situation ko agar 4-hour timeframe par dekha jaye, toh lagta hai ke trend buyers ke control mein hai. Peechlay kuch hafton se price Uptrend ki taraf move kar rahi thi. Last week se market ke safar mein thoda downward correction nazar aaya jo sellers ne kiya, jis ne bullish trend ko thoda delay kar diya. Aaj market ki monitoring se yeh lagta hai ke trend wapas bullish side ki taraf move karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Meri raaye mein, agli price journey shayad upar jaane ki koshish karegi taake current position se door ho sake Peechlay do hafton ke trading period mein bullish conditions ne prices ko aur upar le jane mein madad di, aur 1.1009 area ko touch karne mein kamiyabi hui, halaan ke baad mein market ne correction ki aur price thoda niche aaya. Subah market khulte waqt price ko increase karne ki koshish hui, aur candlestick abhi bhi 1.0922 zone ke aas-paas hai. Agar isay simple moving average 100 ke zariye analyze kiya jaye, toh signal line ke position se lagta hai ke trend upar ki taraf jaa raha hai, jo ke peeche ke kuch hafton ka trend dikhata hai. Overall, candlestick ne SMA100 zone ko cross kar liya hai, jo yeh batata hai ke upar jane ka mauqa abhi bhi hai kyun ke movement bullish zone mein hai. Price increase bhi 1.0946 zone ko cross karne se thoda hi door hai, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke buying interest abhi bhi dominant hai
Meri raaye mein, agli market situation mein price ke upar jane ka chance hai, aur buyers shayad candlestick ko Uptrend side ki taraf le jaane mein stable rehne ki koshish karenge. Bullish journey ke liye mera target 1.0986 position tak hai, jahan doosray buyers ke liye bhi price increase ko support karne ka mauqa milega. Halaan ke is hafte price ke Uptrend mein jane ka chance hai, main phir se yaad dilaata hoon ke week ke start mein price mein correction hone ka chance hota hai pehle ke bullish trend continue kare. Euro ne pichlay trading sessions mein ek bara triangle ke upper boundary ko resistance face kiya. Northward strike itni strong thi ke filhal south ki taraf dekhne ka koi irada nahi hai. Ye impulse H4 timeframe par ek buy signal generate karta hai, mere targets 1.10335 level par hain. Is signal ki cancellation senior minimum ke beyond hai, jahan se ye bara impulse start hota hai (1.07769). Ab hum M15 timeframe par signal aur us ke local targets ko discuss kar sakte hain, jo ke zyada jaldi achieve ho jaate hain aur intraday trading ya aglay din tak carry over ke liye suitable hain

Main aaj EUR/USD currency pair ki price action analysis par focus kar raha hoon. Mera current position bearish hai, aur main abhi apni stance badalne ka koi iraada nahi rakhta. Weekend par maine Middle East mein developments ko closely monitor kiya hai, jo US dollar ke barhne ka sabab ban sakti hain. Mujhe ab ziada signs mil rahe hain ke dollar mazid mazboot ho raha hai. Main aise factors talash kar raha hoon jo dollar par positive asar daal sakein. Bears ke liye price ko niche le jaana mushkil hai, lekin bulls ko significant upward moves karne padenge. Unka kaam kuch asaan hai—unhone price ko 1.0909 ke upar push kiya hai, harmful US labour market data ke bawajood, aur is level ke upar price ko barqarar rakha hai.
Chaahe jo bhi surat-e-haal ho, main dollar ki growth par focus kar raha hoon, aur mera target is instrument ki price ko 1.0759 tak girte dekhna hai.

Recent close 1.0934 ke neeche hua hai. Agar price is direction mein barqarar rehti hai aur 1.0934 ke upar break nahi karti, toh yeh short positions open karne ka ek mauka ho sakta hai. Lekin chart yeh dikhata hai ke buyers abhi bhi sellers par halka sa faida rakhte hain, is liye market ki opening price badi ahmiyat rakhti hai. Main kisi bhi rallies ka faida uthate hue sales initiate karne ka plan kar raha hoon, aur mere target levels 1.0889 aur 1.0809 hain.

EUR/USD chart ne waqayi mein ek bearish formation jaisa pattern banaya hai, lekin price abhi tak significant decline nahi dikhata. Yeh tab ho sakta hai agar current price structure barqarar rahti hai aur market open hone ke baad price 1.0954 ke accumulation zone ke upar sustain nahi hoti. Agar yeh hota hai, toh scenario mazid bearish ho sakta hai, aur pair mazeed niche ja sakta hai. Agar market open hone ke baad price 1.0854 accumulation area tak girti hai aur 1.0889 level ko break kiye baghair wapas upar bounce karti hai, toh yeh ek sharp decline ko trigger kar sakta hai.

EUR/USD H4 timeframe par, Monday ke din American session mein aaj ke din market mein ziada movement hone ka imkaan kam lag raha hai kyunki koi significant news release nahi hui. Pair filhal 1.0900 par trade kar raha hai. Agar hum technical perspective se dekhein, toh mujhe lagta hai ke yeh pair ab upar janay ke liye tayar hai. Is ki wajah yeh hai ke MACD ne oversold conditions ko door kar diya hai, aur 50 Fibonacci retracement ne price ke decline ko limit kar diya hai.
Yani ab market mein growth ke prospects trend ke saath align hain, lekin yeh growth aaj ke din zaroori nahi hai. Aaj market mein khamoshi hai, jo aksar traders ke liye thoda frustrating hoti hai, lekin yeh hamesha yaad rakhna chahiye ke market mein yeh moments bhi kaafi important hote hain. Yeh khamoshi aage chal kar ek solid movement ki taraf ishara kar sakti hai.

Jab price 1.0900 ke aas-paas trade kar rahi hai, toh yeh level ek important resistance zone ban sakta hai. Agar market yahan se upar breakout karti hai, toh yeh signal hoga ke buyers phir se control le rahe hain. MACD ne jo relief diya hai, us se yeh lagta hai ke market mein ab ek healthy correction aa chuki hai, aur ab growth ke imkaanaat ziada hain.

Lekin aaj ke din yeh sab kuch shayad na ho. Ho sakta hai ke market thoda sideway trade kare ya phir sirf chhoti movements dikhaye. Yani agar aaj ke din koi significant movement na ho, toh humein patience rakhna chahiye. Aksar traders ke liye aise din boring hote hain, lekin yeh yaad rakhna chahiye ke patience bhi ek strategy ka hissa hoti hai.

Overall, agar hum is din ko dekhein, toh yeh ek acha time hai apni strategy ko fine-tune karne ka, aur agle din ya aane wale waqt mein market ke movement ke liye tayyari karne ka. MACD ke relief aur Fibonacci retracement ke support ke saath, market upar jaane ke liye tayar lagti hai, lekin yeh move aaj ke din expected nahi hai. So, patience is key.

Tuesday ke trading session mein New York mein, EUR/USD currency pair mein aik nihayat buland izafa dekha gaya, 1.1010 ke ahem resistance level ke qareeb pounch gaya. Yeh izafa Euro ki qeemat mein US Dollar ke muqable mein taqatwar izafa ko numaya karta hai. Mojudah doran mein, EUR/USD 1.0926 ke qareeb trading ho raha hai, forex market mein barqarar bullish momentum ka dikhawa kartay hue. Euro ki qadr ka is izafa ne US Dollar par barhti hui dabao ke sath aiqtadar-e-uzma aur karobar ke dataon ke zariye chal raha pressure ko milta hai.

US Economic Indicators aur Inke Asar Dollar Par

Haal hi mein aaye hue economic data United States ke Dollar par numaya asar andaz hue hain. July mein ISM Services PMI 48.8 par gira, jo April 2020 se sab se tezi se girawat thi. Yeh huliya kisi had tak umeed se kum tha jo 52.5 tha aur June ke 53.8 se gir gaya tha. Is ke ilawa, ADP Employment report ne bataya ke US private jagahon par sirf 150,000 naye jobs shamil hue July mein - jise 160,000 ka tasavvur kiya gaya tha, aur yeh paanch mahinon mein sab se choti izafa tha. Yeh data points kamzor hote hui economic conditions ka ishara dete hain aur US Dollar par pressure dalte hain.

European Market Sentiment aur Bond Yield Spread

Europe mein, market sentiment bond yields ke tabadlay se mutasir hota hai. French aur German 10 saal ke hakoomati bonds ke darmiyan yield spread haal hi mein karib 71 basis points tak ghata, jo pichle mahine ke end par 82 basis points se nichay tha. Yeh kam hone wala spread yeh zahir karta hai ke investors mein barhtay huay itminan hai ke France ke far-right RN party ko majlis-e-shura mein bari bahali hasil karna mushkil hai. Yeh sentiment mein tabdeeli ne France ke assets ko taqat di hai aur Euro ki puri shidat mein pechida hai.

EUR/USD ki Technical Analysis

Ek technical lehaz se, EUR/USD pair taqatwar bullish trends ka dikhawa kar raha hai. Yeh behad nichay 1.1000 ke levels se tezi se ubhar raha hai, chand waqton ke liye 1.0950 se oopar chala gaya hai. Pair ne 200-din EMA par 1.0826 se bhi guzar gaya hai, jo taqatwar short-term bullish sentiment ko zahir karta hai. Yeh technical tor par breakthrough yeh darust karta hai ke upri trend jari reh sakta hai, traders resistance levels aur potential breakout points ko qareeb se nigrani me rakhte hue.

Ikhtisar mein, Euro ke US Dollar ke muqable mein haal ki quwwat ko kamzor US economic indicators aur European markets mein itminani sentiment ka milaap mana jata hai. Jab EUR/USD pair ahem resistance levels ke qareeb pounchega, market participants qareeb aanay wale economic data aur geopolitical developments ko nigrani me rakhtay hue is currency pair ke mustaqbil ke harkaton par asar dalne wale cheezon ka tawaju se intezar karenge

EUR/USD currency pair nee neechey ki janib dabao ka samna karte hue 1.0950 ke threshold ko paar karna mushkil paya hai, kyunke investor dono, United States aur Eurozone se aaney wale aham economic reports ka intezar kar rahe hain. Yeh pair ek tang range ke andar ghoom raha hai, jo market ki pareshani ko zahir karta hai pehle se aham inflation data aur GDP growth statistics jo is haftay ke doran release honay wale hain.

Eurozone mein, aaney wali GDP growth aur inflation figures ko qareebi tor par dekha jaayega, kyunke yeh European Central Bank (ECB) ki aaney wali monetary policy ke faislay par asar daal sakte hain. Halanke ECB ne ehtiyat se kaam liya hai, lekin inflation aur kamzor economic expansion ka mumkinah tor par asar ho sakta hai ke rate hikes ko rok diya jaye. Aisi soorat mein euro par dabao barqarar reh sakta hai, jo ke US dollar ke muqable mein mazeed neeche ja sakta hai.

Daryaft Atlantic, tawajjo US inflation data, khaaskar Consumer Price Index (CPI) par hai, jo midweek release hona hai. Agar inflation reading expectations se zyada aaye, toh Federal Reserve ke liye ya toh rate barkarar rakhne ya phir barhane ki umeed mazeed mazboot ho sakti hai, jo US dollar ko support karegi. Is ke bar'aks, agar reading expectations se kam aaye, toh rate cut ke imkanat ka afwaat phir se shuru ho sakti hain, jo dollar ko kamzor kar sakti hain aur EUR/USD pair ko barhnay ka moka de sakti hain.



Technical tor par, EUR/USD pair aham resistance levels ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jahan 1.0950 ek critical barrier ke tor par kaam kar raha hai. 50-day aur 200-day moving averages short term mein bearish outlook ko zahir karte hain, jo ke is pair ke neechey ke levels ko test karne ka ishara dete hain agar yeh resistance ko breach karne mein kamyab na ho sake. Relative Strength Index (RSI) bhi is bearish perspective ko support karta hai, jo zahir karta hai ke pair ko upar ki janib traction milne mein mushkilat ka samna ho sakta hai jab tak ke aaney wale data releases se market sentiment mein koi aham tabdeeli na aaye.

Nateejatan, EUR/USD 1.0950 ke neechey constrained hai jab tak ke market participants aham US inflation data aur Eurozone GDP figures ka intezar kar rahe hain. Is pair ki movement ka ziyada asar in releases par ho ga, jismein volatility ke imkanat hain jo ke results par mabni hogi. Agar data Federal Reserve ke hawkish stance ya Eurozone mein mazeed economic kamzori ka ishara de, toh euro ko US dollar ke muqable mein mazeed declines ka samna ho sakta hai.

Friday Ko Euro Ne US Dollar Ke Muqable Mein Quwwat Haasil Ki Friday ko Euro ne US Dollar ke muqable mein quwwat hasil ki, aur EUR/USD currency pair ne 1.0850 ka mark cross kiya. Yeh movement US Dollar Index ke girne ki wajah se thi, halankeh US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data June ke liye zyada garam tha. PCE report ne annual core inflation ko 2.6% tak barhane ka pata diya, jo forecast 2.5% se zyada hai, aur monthly increase 0.2% dikhaya, jo pichle mahine ke 0.1% se zyada hai.

PCE data Federal Reserve ke preferred inflation gauge ke taur par, ongoing inflationary pressures ko highlight karta hai, jo near-term interest rate cut ke prospects ko dampen karta hai. Market expectations September mein rate reduction ki taraf lean kar rahi thi, lekin persistent inflation ne in umeedon ko dheela kar diya hai. Agli Federal Reserve ki monetary policy meeting Wednesday ko honi hai, jo central bank ke future rate decisions ke bare mein insights provide kar sakti hai.

PCE data release ke baad, EUR/USD pair ne pehle 1.0860 ke aas-pass rise kiya, phir retrace hua. Daily chart par symmetrical triangle pattern banne se future mein potential volatility ka indication milta hai. 1.0840 par 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke neeche girne se downside risks ka potential hai, jahan key support levels 1.0800 aur 1.0700 hain. Dusri taraf, 1.0900 level Euro ke liye ek significant resistance point hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) neutral par wapas aa gaya hai, jo bullish momentum mein kami ko reflect karta hai.

Overall, recent Euro gains zyada tar US Dollar ki kamzori ki wajah se hain, na ke Eurozone ki strong fundamentals ki wajah se. Market ka focus ab Federal Reserve ke policy decision aur subsequent guidance par hai, jo future rate expectations aur US Dollar ke trajectory ko influence karega.

Lagta hai ke Monday raat ko situation aisi thi ke pair upward trend ko continue kar sakta hai. Pichle haftay market abhi bhi downward correction experience kar raha tha aur weekly uptrend ko continue nahi kar pa raha tha. July mein bearish situation ke bawajood, price 1.0779 tak gir gayi thi, lekin August mein market ne bullish side ko wapas le aaya. Hafte ke shuruat mein price abhi bhi uptrend zone mein dikhai de rahi thi. Pichle teen hafton ke trading mein, upward trend continue kar raha tha, bas kuch dino ke liye bullish trend mein correction dekha gaya.

Mahine ke shuruati trading period mein, price ka safar upar ki taraf lag raha tha, aur candlestick 1.0778 se upar chala gaya. Current market situation yeh hai ke price upar jane ki koshish kar rahi hai lekin range abhi bhi chhoti hai. Mere hisaab se, latest conditions ke basis par, candlestick abhi bhi Uptrend mein chalna chahti hai, aur pichle kuch dino se bullish trend continue kar raha hai. EurUsd pair ka market abhi bhi shant lag raha hai, aur buyers ke efforts price ko upar le jaane ke liye kafi mazboot nahi lag rahe hain. Stochastic indicator 5,3,3 ab 80 zone tak ucha hai, jo bullish trend ka signal de raha hai.

August ke liye candlestick position abhi bhi simple moving average zone ke upar stable hai 100 period ke liye. Agar hum pichle kuch hafton ki direction trend ko dekhein, to yeh bullish journey dikhata hai. 4-hour time frame se market ke upar move karne ke nishan hain shuruat se. Main predict karta hoon ke future trend mein bhi upar move karne ke chances hain aur price area 1.1008 tak test kar sakti hai. Isliye, jab tak market slow chal rahi hai, thoda patience rakhein aur Buy trading option ke moment ka intezaar karein jab high volatility period market mein aaye.

H4 timeframe par, hum EUR/USD currency pair ke price changes ka analysis karenge. Powell ne ECB forum par baat ki aur usual ke mutabiq US dollar ko "drop" kar diya, halaan ke Lagarde ne unse pehle bola aur euro ko thoda support kiya. Powell ne koi nayi baat nahi ki, phir bhi EUR/USD ne 1.0739 ka level break kar liya aur resistance 1.0749 ke kareeb hai. Critical resistance level EMA-200 ke zariye mark kiya gaya hai jo 1.0759 par hai. Yeh samajhna mushkil hai ke market ne Powell ke comments par aise react kyun kiya, kyunki unka kuch bhi groundbreaking nahi tha. Unhone yeh mention kiya ke labor market abhi bhi strong hai, inflation 2% ke qareeb nahi hai, aur kuch disinflation ke asar bhi hain. Lagarde ne bhi comment kiya ke halaan ke inflation sahi direction mein move kar rahi hai, lekin abhi yeh kehna jaldi hoga ke yeh stable rahegi. Powell ne emphasize kiya ke Fed apne decisions mein jaldi nahi karegi aur ke US aur Europe mein inflation ka masla alag hai jo alag approaches require karta hai. Unke comments ke bawajood, market US dollar ko buy karne mein hesitate kar rahi hai.

Siyasi developments ne Europe mein market sentiment ko kaafi influence kiya hai, khaaskar European parliamentary elections ne jo Euro mein confidence ko dent kiya hai. France ka faisla apni parliament ko dissolve karna aur snap elections karwana, jo President Emmanuel Macron ne EU parliament elections mein ek substantial defeat ke baad call kiya, ne market uncertainty ko barhawa diya hai. Marine Le Pen, jo National Rally se ek right-leaning conservative politician hain, ke Macron ko replace karne ki prospect ne financial markets ko stir kiya hai. Le Pen ka platform, jo steep tax cuts, retirement age kam karna, aur stringent immigration controls shamil karta hai, France mein kaafi popular ho gaya hai.

Le Pen ki victory ka potential European financial markets mein apprehension cause kar raha hai. Unki policies significant fiscal challenges impose kar sakti hain jabke European economic indicators pehle hi underperform kar rahe hain. Iske ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) persistent inflation issues ke wajeh se apni rate cuts implement karne ki ability mein constrained hai.

Tuesday ke trading session mein New York mein, EUR/USD currency pair mein aik nihayat buland izafa dekha gaya, 1.1010 ke ahem resistance level ke qareeb pounch gaya. Yeh izafa Euro ki qeemat mein US Dollar ke muqable mein taqatwar izafa ko numaya karta hai. Mojudah doran mein, EUR/USD 1.0926 ke qareeb trading ho raha hai, forex market mein barqarar bullish momentum ka dikhawa kartay hue. Euro ki qadr ka is izafa ne US Dollar par barhti hui dabao ke sath aiqtadar-e-uzma aur karobar ke dataon ke zariye chal raha pressure ko milta hai.
US Economic Indicators aur Inke Asar Dollar Par

Haal hi mein aaye hue economic data United States ke Dollar par numaya asar andaz hue hain. July mein ISM Services PMI 48.8 par gira, jo April 2020 se sab se tezi se girawat thi. Yeh huliya kisi had tak umeed se kum tha jo 52.5 tha aur June ke 53.8 se gir gaya tha. Is ke ilawa, ADP Employment report ne bataya ke US private jagahon par sirf 150,000 naye jobs shamil hue July mein - jise 160,000 ka tasavvur kiya gaya tha, aur yeh paanch mahinon mein sab se choti izafa tha. Yeh data points kamzor hote hui economic conditions ka ishara dete hain aur US Dollar par pressure dalte hain.

European Market Sentiment aur Bond Yield Spread

Europe mein, market sentiment bond yields ke tabadlay se mutasir hota hai. French aur German 10 saal ke hakoomati bonds ke darmiyan yield spread haal hi mein karib 71 basis points tak ghata, jo pichle mahine ke end par 82 basis points se nichay tha. Yeh kam hone wala spread yeh zahir karta hai ke investors mein barhtay huay itminan hai ke France ke far-right RN party ko majlis-e-shura mein bari bahali hasil karna mushkil hai. Yeh sentiment mein tabdeeli ne France ke assets ko taqat di hai aur Euro ki puri shidat mein pechida hai.

EUR/USD ki Technical Analysis

Ek technical lehaz se, EUR/USD pair taqatwar bullish trends ka dikhawa kar raha hai. Yeh behad nichay 1.1000 ke levels se tezi se ubhar raha hai, chand waqton ke liye 1.0950 se oopar chala gaya hai. Pair ne 200-din EMA par 1.0826 se bhi guzar gaya hai, jo taqatwar short-term bullish sentiment ko zahir karta hai. Yeh technical tor par breakthrough yeh darust karta hai ke upri trend jari reh sakta hai, traders resistance levels aur potential breakout points ko qareeb se nigrani me rakhte hue.

Ikhtisar mein, Euro ke US Dollar ke muqable mein haal ki quwwat ko kamzor US economic indicators aur European markets mein itminani sentiment ka milaap mana jata hai. Jab EUR/USD pair ahem resistance levels ke qareeb pounchega, market participants qareeb aanay wale economic data aur geopolitical developments ko nigrani me rakhtay hue is currency pair ke mustaqbil ke harkaton par asar dalne wale cheezon ka tawaju se intezar karenge

Average indicator ke zariye Daily time window par monitor karne se yeh nazar aata hai ke price ya candle abhi bhi Yellow MA 200 area ke upar hai, jo ke 1.0840-1.0832 ke aas-paas hai. Yeh is baat ka indication hai ke EurUsd pair market abhi bhi kafi strong bullish trend mein hai, lekin agar sellers resistance area ko maintain karne mein successful rehte hain, to aaj ke trading mein price bearish hone ke chances hain, jiska bearish target buyer’s demand support area ki taraf ho sakta hai, jo ke 1.0892-1.0890 ke aas-paas hai.
Trading ke Monday subah dekhne ko mila ke sellers ko market mein enter karne mein buyers ke resistance ka saamna karna pad raha hai, jo ke prices ko bullish banaye rakhne ki koshish kar rahe hain, aur sellers ke resistance area ko 1.0924-1.0925 tak pahunchane ka target hai. Agar bullish buyer pressure is resistance area ko break kar deta hai, to EurUsd pair ki price aur upar chalegi aur next target strong seller’s supply resistance area 1.0928-1.0930 ki taraf hoga. Magar agar yeh resistance area bullish rate ko rokne mein successful rehta hai, to sellers is opportunity ka faida utha kar price ko niche push kar sakte hain, aur target buyer support area 1.0910-1.0908 ki taraf hoga.

Pichle hafte ke shuruat mein EurUsd ne kaafi gehra decline dekhna shuru kiya, lekin 7 August 2024 se EurUsd ki movement kaafi quiet ho gayi hai. EurUsd ki movement sirf 1.0915 ke price range ke aas-paas hi ghoom rahi hai. 8 August 2024 ko EurUsd ne gir kar apne nazdeek ke support 1.0906 ko break kiya, lekin uske baad price dobara upar chali gayi. Mera ab bhi yeh prediction hai ke EurUsd upar jaayega kyunki candle abhi bhi MA 200 ke upar hai, jo ke trend ko bullish dikhata hai. Agar candle resistance ko break kar deti hai to EurUsd ki price aur bhi zyada badhegi, aur target 1.1020 tak ja sakta hai. H1 support 1.0889 par bhi test ho raha hai. Agar support break ho jata hai to EurUsd niche gir jayega, aur agar support nahi to EurUsd dobara upar jayega.

Isliye, main recommend karta hoon ke aap pehle sell position kholen, kyunki niche area mein ek demand hai jo abhi tak touch nahi hui, jo ke 1.0805 ke price par hai. Aap take profit target ko nazdeek ke support 1.0794 par rakh sakte hain aur stop loss ko 1.1017 ke aas-paas rakh sakte hain."