eur/usd

Pair ne lagataar do dinon tak notable selling pressure ka samna kiya, jo ke aakhri juma ko Asian session ke dauran teen hafton ke neechay ki taraf girawat mein badal gaya. Market ke band hone tak, EUR/USD ki qeemat 1.0690 ke aas paas thi. Is harkat ne traders aur analysts ki tawajju ko jazb kar liya, jo ke is girawat ke asbaab ka qareebi jaiza le rahe hain.

US Labor Market Data ka EUR/USD par Asar:

Ek ahem factor jo EUR/USD par pressure dal raha hai, woh United States se aane wala recent labor market data hai. Higher-than-expected payroll numbers ne softening labor demand ke hawalay se pareshaniyon ko kam kar diya hai, jo ke recent employment indicators se paida hui thi. April ke liye JOLTS Job Openings data aur May ke liye ADP Employment Change dono ne expectations se kum perform kiya, jabke 31 May tak ke week ke Initial Jobless Claims ne estimates ko exceed kar diya, jo ke labor market mein thodi cooling dikhata hai.

Is labor data ne investors ko apni expectations reconsider karne par majboor kar diya hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) September mein rate cut karega. Iske natije mein US Treasury bond yields elevated rahein. Persistent high yields aur equity markets mein cautious sentiment ne safe-haven US Dollar (USD) ko mazid support diya, jo ke EUR/USD pair par downward pressure dal raha hai.

H4 Chart Technical Analysis: Symmetrical Triangle aur Bullish Indicators

Technically, pair ne four-hour chart par Symmetrical Triangle formation mein wapas dakhil ho gaya hai baad mein breakout ko sustain na kar sake. Ye wapas dakhil hone se yeh zahir hota hai ke pehle ka breakout ek false move tha, aur overall trend bearish ho gaya hai. Pair ko support upward-sloping trendline ke qareeb milne ke imkanaat hain, jo ke 3 October 2023 se chal rahi hai, low of 1.0449 ke qareeb, jo ke 1.0637 level ke paas hai.



Four-hour chart par EUR/USD bullish outlook ko barqarar rakhta hai, kyunke yeh crucial 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke upar trade kar raha hai. Ye ek positive signal hai, jo ke pair mein upward potential ko zahir karta hai. Izaafatan, Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish zone mein 60 ke qareeb hai, jo ke yeh reinforce karta hai ke path of least resistance upar ki taraf hai.

Pair ne lagataar pressure ka samna kiya, jo ke early European trading session mein 1.0670 ke qareeb raha, apne dusre musalsal din ki decline ko mark karta hai. Ye downturn us waqt aayi jab European Central Bank ne June meeting mein interest rates ko 25 basis points se kam kar diya, jo market forecasts ke mutabiq tha. Pehle ke predictions ke bawajood, ECB ke is move ka matlab ye nahi tha ke July mein ek foran rate cut aayega, is tarah interest rate differential ko stabilize karte hue Euro ko Dollar ke against thodi support mili.

Mixed Economic Signals ka Market Sentiment par Asar:

Latest data ne Average Hourly Earnings mein notable increase dikhayi, jo wage inflation ka ek key gauge hai, aur yeh year-on-year 4.1% tak barh gaya. Ye pehle ke expectations 3.9% aur pehle ke figure 4.0% (jo 3.9% se revise hui thi) se zyada tha. Monthly wage growth ne bhi forecasts ko outperform kiya, jo ke 0.4% tak expand hui against anticipated 0.3% aur pehle ka reading 0.2%. Ye figures sustained inflation ke hawale se pareshaniyon ko barhane mein madadgar rahe hain, jo ke Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts ke timeline ke hawale se market expectations ko sharp reassessment kar rahe hain. US Non-Farm Payrolls report ke baad, September mein rate cut ke imkanaat, CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 68% se 54.4% tak kam ho gaye hain.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Pair mukhtalif pivotal levels ka samna kar raha hai. Agar yeh 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke neeche 1.0786 par breach hota hai, to yeh bearish trend ki taraf shift ko signify kar sakta hai. Doosri taraf, agar key resistance level 1.0919 se rebound karta hai, to pair ko March 21 high ke qareeb 1.0951 aur psychological barrier 1.1000 ki taraf propel kar sakta hai.



Near-term trajectory uncertain lagti hai, jab pair 50-day EMA ke qareeb approximately 1.0770 par support test kar raha hai. 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) weakening momentum ko reflect kar raha hai, jo 40.00-60.00 range ke andar hover kar raha hai, jo pehle ke upside momentum mein ek temporary pause ko suggest karta hai.

Yeh baat karta hai ke jo currency pair ka rate hai, woh Tuesday ke trading session mein girne ke baad bullish trend ki taraf sudhar dikha raha hai. Is pair ne 1.0709 par mazboot support level sthapit kiya tha aur likhne ke samay lagbhag 1.0740 tak phir se pahunch chuka hai.

EUR/USD ke bunyadi tajziya:

Europe mein siyasi taraqqiyan ne market ke jazbat ko gehra asar dala hai, khas kar European Parliament ke chunav jo Euro par bura asar dalne ke liye aamne samne aaye hain. France ne apne parliament ko tanasub se bikherne ka faisla kiya hai aur jaldi chunav karwane ka faisla kiya hai, jaise ki President Emmanuel Macron ne EU parliament ke chunav mein badi haar ke baad. Isse market mein uncertainty aur dar paida hua hai. Marine Le Pen ke jeetne ki sambhavna, jo National Rally se ek right-leaning conservative politician hain, Macron ke badle market mein utha hai. Le Pen ke agenda mein tezi se tax cut, retirement age kam karna aur sakht immigration controls shamil hain, jo France mein kaafi popular ho gaya hai.

Le Pen ki jeet ki sambhavna Europe ke financial markets mein darr paida kar rahi hai. Uske policies Eurozone ke already underperforming economic indicators par bhaari fiscal challenges laa sakti hain. Iske alawa, European Central Bank (ECB) Eurozone ke andar persistent inflation ki wajah se rate cuts implement karne mein mukhadim hai.

Char ghante ke time frame ke technical outlook mein:

Agar yeh formation mein wapas laut jata hai, to yeh bearish outlook ko kamzor kar sakta hai aur pair ko 1.0900 ke psychological level ki taraf badhne ke liye prerit kar sakta hai, jo rectangle formation ke upper boundary ke qareeb 1.0907 ke pass hai. Technical shabdon mein, EUR/USD pair rectangle formation ke lower boundary ko dobara test kar sakta hai, jo 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke saath 1.0716 par hai.

Is tajziye se zahir hota hai ke EUR/USD pair ke movement aur market ke siyasi aur economic factors ke darmiyan gehra ta'alluq hai jo future ke liye asar andaz ho sakta hai.

Pair ke liye turant support 1.0700 ke psychological level par muntazir hai. Agar pair is dar se neeche gir jaye, to is dar se neeche badhta hua dabao ka samna kar sakta hai, jis se woh 1.0603 ke throwback support level ko test kar sakta hai.

EUR/USD Ke Price Activity Ka Roshan

EUR/USD currency pair ke price action ka tajziya hamari guftagu ka main mawad hoga. Labour market statistics week mein jolt data aksar manipulate kiye jate hain, is liye jaldi conclusions draw karna behtareen nahi hai. Agar statistics course of events ko change nahi karte hain, to EUR/USD ke buyers ke favor mein move hone ke prospects hain. Jabke bearish trend materialize hone ki potential hai, lekin mojooda halat isharat dete hain ke kal ke direction ko badalne ki zaroorat hai. Yeh shift shuru ho chuki hai, is liye main mojooda trend ka izafa expect karta hoon. Hum tayyar hain ek kam rokne wale trading level ki taraf transition karne ke liye, kyun ke mojooda trend ne bohot se signals diye hain, jin mein se kai probable thay. Anay wale statistics ke liye tayyari kuch agle dinon mein emerge hogi, jo ke market ko extended period tak influence kar sakti hai.



Maine is currency pair ke price action method ko bohot tafseel se analyze kiya hai, H4 time frame par tawajjo di gayi hai. Yahan par main bearish engulfing candle configuration ki formation ko dikhata hoon. Ek provocative move 1.0769 tak hua, aur price expected algorithm ko follow karne laga. Aaj, humne 59 points ki decrease dekhi hai, jo ke maine ek significant result samjha hai. Kuch minutes mein, US dollar ke statistical data expected hain jo labour market ke open vacancies ke bare mein reveal karenge, jise thoda der baad Federal Reserve ke head ki speech follow karegi. European currency ke liye sirf ek news tha: "German consumer price index," jo koi significant changes nahi dikhaya.

EUR/USD pair ke liye potential movement upcoming labour market statistics aur Federal Reserve ke commentary ke influence mein ho sakta hai. Jabke bearish trend mumkin hai, mojooda signals indicate karte hain ke ek kam restricted trading level ki taraf shift ho rahi hai. Traders ko anay wale dino mein key data releases aur market reactions ka nazar rakhna chahiye, jo ke pair ke direction ko shape karne mein madadgar sabit honge.

EUR/USD ki tareekh ke khakaar ko dekhta hoon keh EUR/USD ne haftay ke pehle din mazboot bullish rashk ki dikhai di, aur mumkin hai ke hum bullish rashk mein mazeed quwat dekhte hain. Chalo fundamentals aur macroeconomics par chalte hain. Peer ko Eurozone ya America mein koi ahem report nahi thi. Is din ke chhote reports ke sath ooper ki harkat ka koi taluq nahi tha. Amumaniyat se taalim samaji ke mauqaat wahi rahe aur is baat ko samajhna zaroori hai. Global downtrend be tabdeel hai, is liye hum euro ki girawat ka intezar karte hain.
Yaad rakhein ke European Central Bank ne daro mein kami shuru kar di hai (bilkul Federal Reserve ke mukhalif, jis se sab logon ne March mein ek dar kam ki ummed ki thi), is wajah se euro request dabao mein mubtila hai. Jaisa ke pehle zikr kiya gaya, is ka matlab yeh nahi ke kuch hafton mein brace foran brabar price par gir jaye ga. Capital ka dakhil hona nisbatan dheema hai aur EUR/USD brace ki riyayati dar mein kam inteshar hota hai. Mutaalati tajziya ke mutabiq, EUR/USD brace ki aam inteshar dar pichle paanch dinon ke liye June 25 ke roop mein 48 pips hai, jo ek kam qeemat samjha jata hai. Hum umeed karte hain ke Tuesday ko brace 1.0680 aur 1.0776 ke darmiyan harkat kare ga.
Taraqi shuda direct retrogression channel ooper mud gya hai, lekin global downtrend mukammal hai. CCI index oversold ilaqa mein dakhil hua, lekin is waqt hume taqatwar barguzida ka intezar nahi hai. EUR/USD brace global downtrend ko qaim rakhta hai aur 4 ghante ke timeframe mein moving normal ke qareeb hai. Pehle taqreer mein humne bataya ke hum lambi positions ko nahi samajhte hain aur hume downtrend ki qowat ka daam rakhna chahiye. Is waqt, 1.0681 aur 1.0620 ke targets ke saath short positions ab bhi maqbool hain. 1.0681 se jawab, ek aur round of upward correction ko trigger kiya gaya. Hum euro ki khareed ko tajweez nahi karte, kyun ke hume yakeen hai ke global downtrend jari hai aur single currency ke liye barhne ki koi buniyadi waja nahi hai. Lekin price barhne ke dauran kuch arsa ke liye izafe ke liye hosakta hai.
EUR/USD ke aadharik map par, hafta peer se aam taqreeban muqami harkat ke saath shuru hua, jahan keemat maqami position ke qareeb trading kar rahi thi. Keemat ne Tuesday, Wednesday aur Thursday ko trading position se neeche girayi, jo 1.0647 tak support ke taraf ek sell signal paida karta hai. Keemat ne is rut ko tasdiq kiya aur isey mazboot sell signal banaya, aur Jumma ko, sell signal ada ho gaya; jab keemat is position ke adhe se zyada aur is support ke qareeb maqami ho rahi thi, doosra sell signal paida kiya. Maqami harkat ke saath range se shuru hua, Monday ko growt hua aur 1.0747 tak resistance tak aaya. Is waqt, if the price through the resistance at 1.0747 is doubtful and the price rolls back, selling will be applicable
EUR/USD apni taqat dikhata hua, mangal ke din 1.0917 ka chhe hafton ka bulandai tak pohanch gaya hai, kamzor hotay hue US dollar aur European Central Bank ke monetary policy plans ke hawale se goonghi chal ke beech. ECB ne mukarrar course of action par committment se parheiz kiya hai, aur data-driven approach ko apnaya hai, jo market ki umeedon ko aggressive easing ke liye 2024 mein kam kar rahi hai. Ibtida mein, investors ne is saal teen rate cuts ki tawakku ki thi, magar June ke meeting ke baad ye paish-goi aik rate cut tak gir gayi hai, jo kuch ECB officials ke is hidayat ke mutabiq hai ke bohat zyada dovish policies se inflationary pressures dobara barh sakte hain. Doosri taraf, USD ko support mil rahi hai kamzori ke aik muddat ke baad, US Dollar Index 104.30 tak barh gaya hai, jo risk appetite mein kami ke wajah se hai. Investors zyada ehtiyat se kaam le rahe hain, kyunki September rate cut ke hawale se Federal Reserve ke bets thande pad gaye hain. Fed officials ne apne irade ka izhar kiya hai ke wo mojooda interest rates ko qaim rakhna chahte hain jab tak ke wo mehngai ko kam karne mein khaas taraqqi na dekhein, aur ab market umeed kar raha hai ke Fed sirf 2024 ke akhri quarter mein rates ko kam karna shuru karega.

EUR/USD PAIR REVIEW

Do din se lagataar EUR/USD ke price ke 1.0750 level se upar jane ki koshish nakam rahi, aur euro ke gains kamzor pad gaye, jab policymakers ne is baat ka ishara diya ke unhe yeh sabit karne ke liye zyada saboot chahiye ke price pressures control mein hain. Ibtidaai andazay dikhate hain ke euro area mein annual inflation rate June mein 2.5% tak gir gaya, jo ke umeed ke mutabiq tha. Core measure, jo ke volatile items jaise food aur energy ko exclude karta hai, baghair kisi umeed ke waisa hi raha. Germany, France aur Spain mein inflation rates slow hui, jabke Italy mein yeh 0.9% tak barh gayi.

ECB conference mein Sintra, Portugal mein baat karte hue, ECB President Christine Lagarde ne kaha ke ECB ke paas data ikattha karne ka waqt hai taake yeh ensure kiya ja sake ke inflation track par hai, lekin saath hi yeh bhi zaroori hai ke interest rates ko restricted levels par rakhne ka waqt lena economic cost par aata hai.

Stock trading platforms par... European stock indices ghat gaye. Trading ke mutabiq, STOXX 50 aur STOXX 600 dono Tuesday ko gir gaye, pehle wala 0.6% aur doosra 0.4% se, jab traders yeh digest kar rahe the ke European Central Bank dobara se interest rates cut karne mein jaldi nahi karega. President Lagarde ne kaha ke central bank ko interest rates ko aur zyada kam karne ki jaldi nahi hai kyunke unhe inflation aur economic trends ko assess karne ke liye zyada waqt chahiye. Chief Economist Philip Lane ne bhi kaha ke June inflation data central bank ke underlying price pressures ke sawaalon ka jawab nahi dega. Eurozone inflation June mein 2.5% tak gir gayi pehle ke 2.6% se, jo umeed thi, lekin core rate 2.9% par stable rahi, jabke umeed thi 2.8% ki.

Corporate side par, L'Oréal shares (-1.4%), Inditex shares (-1.5%), Airbus shares (-0.9%), Bayer shares (-2.8%), aur Munich Re shares (-4%) bhi gir gaye. Bank stocks bhi pressure mein rahe: BNP Paribas (-0.5%), Banco Santander (-2.3%) aur BBVA (-1.1%). Dusri taraf, Siemens Energy shares 4.3% se barh gaye jab company ne 2030 tak 10,000 employees hire karne ka plan announce kiya.

EUR/USD forecast aaj:

Niche diye gaye daily chart par performance ke mutabiq, euro ke price against US dollar, EUR/USD, apne downward path par hai, aur current downward channel se exit nahi hoga jab tak currency pair resistance levels 1.0830 aur 1.0900 ki taraf nahi badhta. Dusri taraf, isi time period mein, support level 1.0600 sabse important rahega zyada strength aur bears ke trend par control ke liye. Euro/dollar price apne current range mein reh sakta hai jab tak markets aur investors European elections ke natayij aur phir US job numbers ke announcements par react nahi karte.
EURUSD_2024-07-03_09-53-19.webp

Forex trading strategy
EUR/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Kal, euro/dollar ke jode ne tawaqqo ke mutabiq mazbut badhat hasil ki. Yah dekhte hue keh debt level baqi hai, 1.0750 ke nishan par wapsi ka bahut zyada imkan hai. Takniki nuqtah nazar se, European currency ke 1.0735 ki support satah tak girne ki ummid hai.
Aaj, mai tawaqqo karta hun keh euro/dollar ki jodi niche jayegi, jis se short positions kholna mumkin hoga.
Yaqinan, market me itni mutassir kun girawat dekhne ko nahin milegi, lekin is scenario se inkar nahin kiya ja sakti hai. Ham dekhenge.
Jumah ke macroeconomic calendar me labor market ka aham data shamil hai jo market ke jazbat par shadid asar dal sakta hai aur record ko sahi kar sakta hai.
Jahan tak dusre bade jodon ka talluq hai, suratehal bhi waisi hi hai. Debt levels hain aur US dollar index ke liye bhi aisa hi hai. Tawaqqo hai keh greenback kam se kam izafe ki ek muqami wave banayegi. Kya yah kisi aur chiz me badal jayega? Yah ko kal hi batayega.

جولائی 4 2024 کو یورو/امریکی ڈالرکی پیشن گوئی

کل، یورو نے اپنے تمام اہداف حاصل کر لیے - 1.0788 کی سطح، بیلنس لائن کی مزاحمت، اور یہ مارلن آسیلیٹر کو اوپر کی جانب رجحان والے علاقے میں دھکیلنے میں کامیاب ہو گیا۔ تاہم، شاید کل کا اہم واقعہ ایس. اینڈ. پی. 500 انڈیکس ایک نئے ریکارڈ کو بلند کرنے والا تھا۔



یہ نمو امریکہ کی طرف سے کمزور معاشی اعداد و شمار کے اجراء کے ساتھ ہی ہوئی ہے۔ اے ڈی پی کا کہنا ہے کہ جون میں نجی شعبے میں 150,000 ملازمتیں پیدا ہوئیں، جو کہ 163,000 کی پیشن گوئی کے خلاف ہے، مئی میں صنعتی آرڈرز میں 0.5 فیصد کی کمی ہوئی، اور نان مینوفیکچرنگ پی. ایم. آئی. (آئی. ایس. ایم.) جون میں 53.8 سے کم ہو کر 48.8 رہ گئی۔ یہاں تک کہ پر امید اٹلانٹا فیڈ نے دوسری سہ ماہی کے لیے اپنی جی ڈی پی کی پیشن گوئی کو 1.7% سے کم کر کے 1.5% کر دیا۔

فیڈرل فنڈز کی شرح کے لیے مارکیٹ کی توقعات کو دیکھتے ہوئے، کوئی یہ فرض کر سکتا ہے کہ چونکہ ڈیٹا کمزور تھا، فیڈرل ریزرو ستمبر میں شرح کو کم کر سکتا ہے، خاص طور پر جب سے 5 سالہ سرکاری بانڈز کی پیداوار کل 4.40% سے کم ہو کر 4.32% ہو گئی۔ لیکن سرمایہ کاروں کی یہ تمام کارروائیاں اب بھی قیاس آرائی پر مبنی کھیل کی طرح نظر آتی ہیں۔

اب مخمصہ شدت اختیار کرتا ہے: کیا جمعہ کو کمزور روزگار کے اعداد و شمار پر اسٹاک مارکیٹ میں اضافہ جاری رہے گا، یا یہ پوزیشنوں میں بڑے پیمانے پر بندش کی وجہ سے گرے گا؟ اور دوسرا سوال: اگر ڈیٹا کمزور رہتا ہے تو کیا یورو اسٹاک مارکیٹ کے خلاف بڑھتا رہے گا؟

ہم ان سوالات کا جواب نہیں دے سکتے، لیکن ہم یہ کہہ سکتے ہیں کہ تاریخی طور پر، خبروں کے اجراء کے بعد قیاس آرائی پر مبنی غیر یقینی صورتحال کے درمیان، ایک اثاثہ تقریباً ایک اعداد و شمار کے برابر ایک مضبوط غلط اقدام کرتا ہے اور پھر تیزی سے الٹ جاتا ہے اور کئی دنوں تک اس سمت میں آگے بڑھتا ہے۔ ہم نے ایک طویل عرصے میں اس طرح کا اتار چڑھاؤ نہیں دیکھا ہے، اور نہ ہی کچھ عرصے کے لیے ایسے ہی بنیادی اور تکنیکی طور پر کشیدہ حالات کا سامنا کرنا پڑا ہے۔

مندرجہ بالا تمام چیزوں سے، ہم یہ فرض کر سکتے ہیں کہ کل یورو اوپر کی طرف جھوٹی چھلانگ لگائے گا اور پھر 1.0636/50 کی ہدف کی حد اور مزید 1.0595 کی طرف مڑ جائے گا۔



جہاں تک آج کی بات ہے، امریکہ میں چھٹی ہے۔ ٤- گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، مارلن آسکیلیٹر 1 جون کی چوٹی سے اوپر نہیں بڑھ رہا ہے۔ کل کے اوپری سائے کے ساتھ 40 پِپ کا اضافہ ہمیں دکھاتا ہے کہ قیاس آرائی کرنے والوں نے اپنے مقاصد حاصل کر لیے، اور آج ہم توقع کرتے ہیں کہ یورو 1.0788 کی سطح پر پرسکون دن گزارے گا۔

.تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

UR/USD, H4 Euro subha mein thoda sa upar tha Wednesday ko. Lekin mujhe lagta hai ke aane wale dinon mein markets thoda weak rahenge kuch reasons ki wajah se. Sabse bada reason hai US mein Independence Day celebrations Thursday ko. Phir Wednesday ko UK parliamentary elections aur Friday ko upcoming jobs report bhi cautious atmosphere bana rahe hain kyunki traders euro ka next move assess karne ki koshish kar rahe hain.

Broader perspective se dekha jaye toh euro major points ke beech oscillate kar raha tha: 1.07, 1.08 aur 1.09. Ye points hot spots ban gaye hain aur recent market actions ka major part hain. Agar recent swing low ke neeche break ho jaye toh 1.06 level tak return ho sakta hai. Lekin abhi ke liye, traders short-term back-and-forth trading mein busy lag rahe hain.

European Central Bank ke recent rate cuts ne already speculation ko badhawa diya hai ke Federal Reserve bhi aisa hi kuch karega. Upcoming jobs report market ke liye ek key indicator hogi, jo decide karegi ke Federal Reserve apni policy adjust kar sakta hai ya nahi. In key issues par nazar rakhna zaroori hai, kyunki inka Euro ki movement par significant impact hota hai. Current scenario ko dekhte hue, trading short-term options tak limited rehne wali hai, jo ke summer trading plans ka typical feature hota hai.

Summary mein, Euro relatively volatile hai, aur important events in US aur UK market ko calm kar sakte hain aane wale dinon mein. Traders ko key support aur resistance levels par focus karna chahiye, aur short-term momentum par nazar rakhni chahiye, aur action report ke naye guidance ke liye caution aur strategy ko exploit karna chahiye, jo ke summer shopping season ka characteristic hota hai.




4o

EUR/USD Forecast: Kya recent rally barqarar rahegi?

Jab investors ne Fed ke aakhri meeting ke minutes ka mutala kiya, tou EUR/USD exchange rate ne ek upside opportunity dekhi aur mukhtasir tor par 1.0816 resistance level ko choo liya, jo ke 2019 se sabse ooncha level hai. Teen hafton baad, yeh Thursday ko trading ke aghaz par 1.0785 ke qareeb stabilize ho gaya. Fed ne apni taraf se, June 2024 mein federal funds target range ko 5.25%-5.50% par saatwain martaba barqarar rakha, jo ke expected tha.

US policymakers ka ye maanna hai ke interest rates ko cut karna na-munasib hoga jab tak ke unhe yeh yaqeen na ho jaye ke inflation 2% ke qareeb barqarar rahega. Bullet chart dikhata hai ke policymakers sirf is saal ek rate cut ki tawakku rakhte hain aur 2025 mein chaar rate cuts ki umeed hai. March mein, Fed ne 2024 mein teen baar aur 2025 mein teen baar interest rates cut kiye the.

Darhaqiqat, June ka initial estimate dikhata hai ke services inflation ab bhi high hai, aur core rate slow down nahi hua, jab ke headline inflation slow down hui hai. Dosri taraf, Eurozone ke producer prices May mein thode ziada gir gaye jitna expected tha, aur final PMI readings ne services sector aur private economy dono mein slowdown confirm kiya.

EUR/USD ek descending triangle mein trade kar raha tha pehle ke rising dikhaye, jo ke is chart pattern ke height ke barabar ek rise dikhata hai. Price pichle resistance level par gir gayi, jo ab support ke tor par kaam kar raha hai. Fibonacci Extension tool ke mutabiq following upside targets hain, aur pair ne 38.2% stretch ka tajurba kiya second psychological level 1.0750 par. Mazid bullish momentum ise 50% Fibonacci level 1.0762 tak ya 61.8% Fibonacci level tak push kar sakta hai, jo swing high 1.0775 ke saath coincide karta hai. 76.4% level 1.0790 par hai, aur full extension 1.0815 par hai.

Overall, 100 SMA abhi 200 SMA ke oopar cross hua hai, jo confirm karta hai ke rally strengthened hai na ke falling. Moving averages bhi triangle ke broken tip ke saath aligned hain, jo support ko mazid taqat deta hai. Magar, Stochastic Oscillator overbought region se neechay move kar raha hai, jo buyer fatigue aur possible selling pressure return ko dikhata hai. Oscillator ke paas abhi bhi neechay move karne ki kafi gunjaish hai seller fatigue reflect karne se pehle. Dusri taraf, RSI ke paas abhi bhi upar move karne ki gunjaish hai overbought region tak pohanchne se pehle, jo buyer fatigue ko dikhata hai aur rally ko jaari rehne ka ishara deta hai.

Is haftay ke aakhir mein, US non-farm payrolls report release hogi, jo June mein weak employment show karne ki tawakku hai. Agar aisa hota hai, tou dollar mazeed kamzor ho sakta hai jab traders dobara federal government se monetary policy ko ease karne ki demand karte hain. Weak fundamental data, jaise ke labor force participation rate aur average hourly earnings bhi dollar ki direction ko affect kar sakte hain.

EUR/ USD Price Movement

Main EUR/USD currency pair ki real-time pricing analysis kar raha hoon. USA mein inflation dheere dheere kam ho rahi hai, mahine ke 0.1% ke hisaab se. Ye trend aur cooling labor market, jo naye jobs ki kami aur unemployment badhne ko include karta hai, Federal Reserve ke liye crucial hai. Agar ye conditions waise hi rahti hain, to Fed September mein rate cut consider kar sakta hai, bhale hi abhi officials kya keh rahe hain. Ye hafte market ke liye significant hai kyunki Friday ko non-farm payrolls release hone wale hain. Aaj US job vacancies par JOLTS report EUR/USD pair aur broader market ko influence kar sakti hai.

Additionally, Powell ka upcoming speech market volatility ko introduce kar sakta hai. Price 1.0709 level se rebound karke 1.0719 se upar stabilize karne ki koshish kar rahi hai. Agar ye 1.0729 ko todta hai, to mujhe lagta hai ye 1.0759 tak pahunchega.

Humne 1.0729 aur 1.0749 ke beech sales zone identify kiya hai. Is area se, mujhe lagta hai lower levels break hone ki sambhavana hai, provided market flat na rahe. Market movement recently erratic rahi hai, especially flat conditions mein, jo significantly lower levels ko todne aur 1.0689-1.0679 pe sales targets ko reach karne ko mushkil banati hai. Lekin agar breakout 1.0729-1.0749 ke upar hota hai, to targets 1.0769 aur 1.0789 shift ho jayenge.






US market activity fluctuate hui hai, pehle din buying aur dusre din selling hui hai, to aaj ka outcome uncertain hai. Market dynamics aur Powell ke remarks critical levels ko todne ke liye momentum provide kar sakte hain, initial target 1.0739 pe. Asian markets ke response pe depend karta hai, hum ya to bullish direction mein strengthening dekh sakte hain ya reversal with sales targeting lower levels. Mujhe flat markets pasand nahi hain kyunki wo unpredictable hote hain aur frequently erratic movements karte hain.

EUR/USD ke price ke 1.0750 level se upar jane ki koshish nakam rahi, aur euro ke gains kamzor pad gaye, jab policymakers ne is baat ka ishara diya ke unhe yeh sabit karne ke liye zyada saboot chahiye ke price pressures control mein hain. Ibtidaai andazay dikhate hain ke euro area mein annual inflation rate June mein 2.5% tak gir gaya, jo ke umeed ke mutabiq tha. Core measure, jo ke volatile items jaise food aur energy ko exclude karta hai, baghair kisi umeed ke waisa hi raha. Germany, France aur Spain mein inflation rates slow hui, jabke Italy mein yeh 0.9% tak barh gayi.
ECB conference mein Sintra, Portugal mein baat karte hue, ECB President Christine Lagarde ne kaha ke ECB ke paas data ikattha karne ka waqt hai taake yeh ensure kiya ja sake ke inflation track par hai, lekin saath hi yeh bhi zaroori hai ke interest rates ko restricted levels par rakhne ka waqt lena economic cost par aata hai.
Stock trading platforms par... European stock indices ghat gaye. Trading ke mutabiq, STOXX 50 aur STOXX 600 dono Tuesday ko gir gaye, pehle wala 0.6% aur doosra 0.4% se, jab traders yeh digest kar rahe the ke European Central Bank dobara se interest rates cut karne mein jaldi nahi karega. President Lagarde ne kaha ke central bank ko interest rates ko aur zyada kam karne ki jaldi nahi hai kyunke unhe inflation aur economic trends ko assess karne ke liye zyada waqt chahiye. Chief Economist Philip Lane ne bhi kaha ke June inflation data central bank ke underlying price pressures ke sawaalon ka jawab nahi dega. Eurozone inflation June mein 2.5% tak gir gayi pehle ke 2.6% se, jo umeed thi, lekin core rate 2.9% par stable rahi, jabke umeed thi 2.8% ki.
Corporate side par, L'Oréal shares (-1.4%), Inditex shares (-1.5%), Airbus shares (-0.9%), Bayer shares (-2.8%), aur Munich Re shares (-4%) bhi gir gaye. Bank stocks bhi pressure mein rahe: BNP Paribas (-0.5%), Banco Santander (-2.3%) aur BBVA (-1.1%). Dusri taraf, Siemens Energy shares 4.3% se barh gaye jab company ne 2030 tak 10,000 employees hire karne ka plan announce kiya.
EUR/USD forecast aaj:
Niche diye gaye daily chart par performance ke mutabiq, euro ke price against US dollar, EUR/USD, apne downward path par hai, aur current downward channel se exit nahi hoga jab tak currency pair resistance levels 1.0830 aur 1.0900 ki taraf nahi badhta. Dusri taraf, isi time period mein, support level 1.0600 sabse important rahega zyada strength aur bears ke trend par control ke liye. Euro/dollar price apne current range mein reh sakta hai jab tak markets aur investors European elections ke natayij aur phir US job numbers ke announcements par react nahi karte.
aakhir mein, US non-farm payrolls report release hogi, jo June mein weak employment show karne ki tawakku hai. Agar aisa hota hai, tou dollar mazeed kamzor ho sakta hai jab traders dobara federal government se monetary policy ko ease karne ki demand karte hain. Weak fundamental data, jaise ke labor force participation rate aur average hourly earnings bhi dollar ki direction ko affect kar sakte hain.

EUR/USD ka haal hi kaafi dilchasp hai. Lagta hai ke aakhri khabar ki wajah se hone wali uchhal ko ab naye factors counter kar rahe hain. Magar umeed hai ke price wapas 1.0799 ke level pe aayegi, jahan se ye current movement shuru hui thi. Jaise jaise US trading session qareeb aata hai ya khatam hota hai, 1.0769 ke support ko todne ki koshish ho sakti hai aur price niche ja sakti hai. Is haftay ke trading ke liye yeh ek viable strategy lagti hai. EUR/USD pair ke hourly chart mein short-term bearish bias nazar aa raha hai, jo ke selling opportunities ko buying se zyada favorable banata hai. 120-period Moving Average trend indicator bhi bearish direction ko confirm karta hai, kyun ke price indicator ke neeche trade ho rahi hai. Zigzag indicator bhi bearish structure dikhata hai jahan extremes kam ho rahe hain. In sab ko dekhte hue, main 1.0771 level se sell karne ka plan bana raha hoon, pehla target 1.0731 aur phir 1.0691 hoga, aur stop loss 1.0801 pe hoga. Agar din ke dauran market conditions change hoti hain, to buy consider kar sakta hoon agar pair 1.0831 ke upar stabilize ho jata hai. Buy trades ke liye, take profit target 1.0871 hoga aur stop loss 1.0801 pe.
Notably, US inflation data expect se kam aayi hai, jo Federal Reserve ke aaj ke meeting mein interest rates ko kam karne ke chances ko barhati hai. Halanke yeh possibility choti hai, inflation data ne is outcome ko zyada plausible bana diya hai. EUR/USD currency pair ke current price movement kaafi captivating hai. Yeh remarkable hai ke market ko sirf 0.1% ke inflation statistics adjust karne se kaise manipulate kiya ja sakta hai. Yeh Federal Reserve ke aane wale meeting ka precursor hai. Technical analysis divergence dikhata hai. EUR/USD pair ke lower trend line of the descending daily channel ko reach karne ki sambhavana hai, isse test karegi aur phir apne local downward trajectory ko continue karegi. Aakhir mein, pair channel mein wapas aayegi, stabilize karegi, aur dheere dheere uske andar upar chadhegi. Mujhe umeed hai ke situation kal tak zyada clear ho jayegi. Annual inflation decrease of 0.1% significant nahi hai, magar yeh rate cut ka potential September mein la sakta hai, turant nahi. Hume dekhna padega ke market kaise respond karta hai; agar current trend barqarar rehta hai, pair week ke end tak 1.0889 level pe wapas aa sakti hai. Maine anticipate kiya tha ke EUR/USD pair gap ko close karega, magar move expected se zyada abruptly hua. News pe, price ek single candle ke saath close hui aur upar surge hui. Magar, jaise pehle bataya tha, news-driven candlesticks ko zyada potential chahiye hota hai sustainable movement ke liye. Hum shayad 1.0740 tak pohonchne ki koshish karein.
EUR/USD ne aakhir kar ek local downward trend form karna shuru kar diya hai. Hum ab bhi expect karte hain ke pair levels 1.0600, 1.0450, aur shayad 1.0200 tak gir sakta hai. Magar, yeh samajhna zaroori hai ke price in targets tak foran nahi pahunchay gi; yeh medium-term hain. Misal ke taur par, pair ek corrective phase mein aur ek hafte tak ja sakti hai, kyun ke pair ne abhi 1.0678 ka level nahi chooa. Hum medium-term mein euro ke rise hone ki koi wajah nahi dekhte.
Monday ko traders ek nayi upward movement expect kar sakte hain, kyun ke 1.0678 ka level bearish pressure ke against hold kar gaya. Magar, yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke pair mazeed kam volatility se guzar sakti hai.
5M chart par key levels hain: 1.0483, 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611, 1.0678, 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981. Monday ke liye koi significant events ya reports planned nahi hain. Hum sirf Germany ka IFO Business Climate Index highlight kar sakte hain, magar yeh ek secondary report hai.

EUR/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Euro/dollar ka joda beghair kisi pullback ke ooper ki taraf karobar kar raha hai. European currency pahle hi ek nayi muqami bulandi par pahunch chuki hai. Yah koi tajjub ki bat nahin hai keh kiyunkeh Americi dollar ab bhi dawab me hai. Aaj, bahut kuch aidad o shumar par munhasar hai. America nonfarm payrolls par data jari karne ke liye taiyar hai, jiska market ke jazbat par asar pad sakta hai.
Is dauran, mai ab bhi tawaqqo karta hun keh euro/dollar ka joda ooper ki taraf badhega. Halankeh, ek numaya ooper ki taraf movement ke liye ek pullback ki zarurat hai. Lehaza, agar qimat 1.0725 ke ilaqe tak girti hai to, yah long positions kholne ke liye ek danishmandana faisla hoga.

4-hour map par Euro upper band ke sath move karne ki koshish ke baad ab bands ke central area ki taraf wapas aanay laga hai. Is surat-e-haal mein, price growth ke liye ek naya high-quality signal tabhi milega jab upper band ke beyond active rout ho aur phir dekha jaye ke bands outward expand hote hain ya nahi. Fractals ki baat karein to, price ne neerest fractal ko downside ki taraf break kiya aur June 13 ke fractal ke level par pehla target hasil kar liya. Filhaal, ek naya near fractal downside par form ho gaya hai, is ka rout aur connection upar price ko June 12 ke fractal ke level 1.08517 ki taraf move karne dega. Nearest fractal strike se kaafi door hai, to price decline ke liye kuch direction dene ke liye, naya near fractal ka appearance intezar karna munasib hoga.

EURUSD currency pair correction kar raha hai. Iska support level 1.0780 par bohot acha hai, jo ke is Monday ka high hai aur 100th Fibonacci level bhi. Agar price is level tak pullback karti hai, to yahan se bohot ache buy positions kholi ja sakti hain jo phir 161st level tak, jo 1.0840 ke ird gird hai, hold ki ja sakti hain. Lekin, mujhe ye bhi mumkin lagta hai ke kal price bina pullback ke apne northern targets ki taraf move karna shuru kar de, is surat mein hum naye trading opportunities dekhenge.

Stupendous Oscillator index positive zone mein active hai aur naya outside form ho gaya hai. Abhi tak yeh wazeh nahi ke pehla peak kab form hoga, jo yeh dikhayega ke price growth mazeed barh sakti hai. Price decline ka high-quality signal hasil karne ke liye, zero level ke active fading ka intezar karna munasib hoga. Numerical mark 1.0812 hai, jahan se mere khayal mein hum support area 1.0760-1.0740 tak gir sakte hain. Mujhe yeh pasand nahi ke price itni dair se yahan stuck hai, kyunke agar bulls mein north ki taraf move karne ki taqat hai, to hum jaldi withdrawal ki umeed nahi rakh sakte. Khair, kal weekend se pehle ka akhri din hai aur mujhe umeed hai ke yeh correction hoga aur bears current price position se kam az kam 70 points south ki taraf move karenge.





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