eur/usd

EUR/USD

Kal, bears EUR/USD jodi ko niche ki taraf khinchne me kamyab rahe. Sabse zyada imkan hai keh, woh kal ki Fed ki meetying ke nataij ko samne rakh rahe hain. Agar aisa hai to, mujhe nahin lagta hai keh jodi kel ke nataij par kafi radde amal zahir karegi. Halankeh, qimat abhi 1.0350 tak nahin pahunchi hai lekin jald hi is satah ke test ka imkan hai. Iska matlab hai keh hamare pas ab bhi din ke dauran jodi ko farokht karne ka mauqa hai. Jodi ke 1.0460 par wapas aane aur is satah se short positions kholne ka imkan hai. Qimat bhi 1.0500 tak badh sakti hai lekin market me mandi ka jazba ghalib hai. Dudri taraf, kuch musbat khabron ke bad qimat us satah par wapas aa sakti hai.

Sath hi, bears market ko control kar rahe hain aur kal ki release ke darmiyan mandi ka rujhan mazbut ho sakta hai. Kaun janta hai, shayad yah jodi kam waqt me 1.000 tak pahunch jaye? Agar qimat 1.0350 ko todti hai to, imkan hai keh yah is scenario ko follow karega. Pound pahle hi ek naye multi-month swing low par pahunch gaya hai. Lehaza, euro ke liye aisa karne ka waqt aa gaya hai.

Assalam Alaikum!

Rat ki tejarat kafi natija khez rahi, aur euro/dollar bulls dubara dawab me aa gaye. Yah jodi 1.04 raqbe ke nichli satah par pahunch gayi aur sirf 1.0397 ki satah par, kharidar is pahal ko zabt karne me kamyab rahe. Asian session nisbatan mustahkam chal rahab hai, aur kharidar ki dilchaspi relevant hai. Fir bhi, yah ek false bullish breakout ho sakta hai kiyunkeh bears 1.0435 ki satah par dubara jodi par dawab dalna shuru kar dete hain. Chart par muqarrar kardah maujudah sell order kholne ke liye sazgar hai. Farokht karne ke liye pahla hadaf 1.0400 ka gol satah hoga, jisme qimat is nishan se niche hogi. Bears ka buniyadi kam 1.0350 ki salana kamtarin satah ka test karna hoga. Halankeh, bulls ko kam nahin samjhan jana chahiye kiyunkeh jodi ab bhi 1.04 raqbe se pullback kar sakta hai.

Assalam Alaikum!Aaj ham rujhan ke sath chalte hain. Pound ke bar-aks, euro ke liye mera scenario ab bhi relevant hai, kam az kam jab tak qimat 1.0350 ki nichli satah ka dubara test na kare. Chunkeh level indicator ke pas aaj koi lazmi zone nahin hai, quotes ke 1.0477 par channel ki oopri hadd tak pahunchne ke sath blue-line scenario mumkin hai. Uske bad 1.0715 ki satah ki taraf mukhtasar muddat ki islah ho sakti hai. Kharidari ke entry point ki talash ke liye yah ek accha lamha ho sakta hai.



Yah qimat is blue-line scenario par amal karti hai to, yah zaruri hai keh filters ka layout zyada tabdil na ho aur 1.2 niche rahe. Aam taur par, filters aur dusre indicators ke mutabqi majmui jazbat tawil duddat ke liye bhi bahut tez hai. Halankeh, sab kuch badal sakta hai, khas taur par taraqqi sust ho. Agar yah sach hai to, ham pound ki tarah red-line scenario aur ek nayi nichli satah hasil kar sakte hain. 1.0260 ki satah ke liye, mai iske bare me kuch nahin kah sakta lekin yah kal se kahin nahin gaya hai aur iska imkan nahin bhai.

Kal, maine GBP/USD aur EUR/USD jodi par positions kholin. Maine pahli jodi par apni positions band kar di aur euro khula raha. Badqismati se, mujhe pound par kuch nuqsanat ka samna karna pada aur aaj, agar mera mansuba ghalat hua to, mujhe euro par bhi nuqsan uthana padega. Bahar hal, yah tejarat ka ek lazmi hissa hai.

Euro ne kal pullback nahin dikhaya. Qimat kam ho kar 1.0400 par aa gayi aur 1.0440 ko ched diya jo kafi mayus kun tha. Kal, maine tawaqqo ki thi keh euro 1.0540 - 1.0550 ka test karega aur is satah se short positions kholna chahta tha aur long positions ko band karna chahta tha. Natije ke taur par, mai nakam raha.

Aaj, mujhe lagta hai keh jodi thodi badh sakti hai aur fir se apni kami jari rakh sakti hai. Mai is kami ke dauran apna order band karne ka mansuba bana raha hun. Jodi ke 1.0350 ko todne ka zyada imkan hai.

Assalam Alaikum!

Aaj subah ek pullback ke sath shuru hui.

Kal, jodi 1.04 ki satah ko overcome nahin kar sakti halankeh niche ki raftar mazbut thi. Mujhe lagta hai keh aaj qimat is satah ko tab tak test karti rahegi jab tak keh tamam stop-loss order ko mutaharik nahin kiya jata hai. Iske bad hi ham tejarati hajam me izafe ki tawaqqo kar sakte hain ta keh oopri paltaw ya islah ho.

Yah bhi mumkin hai keh qimat maujudah satahon se ooper chali jaye kiyunkeh uske liye tamam sharayat maujud hain. Iske alawa, sellers ne tal par market me dakhil hona shuru kar diya hai.

Fir bhi, yah sirf ek mutabadil scenario hai. Agar waqai reversal hota hai to, iski tasdiq hone par trade me dakhil hona behtar hai, yani keh, qimat ooper se niche tak 1.0450 ki satah ka test karti hai.

Is waqt, hamare pas 1.0350 ke hadaf je sath majmui taur par niche ki taraf movement hai. Yah woh jagah hai jahan mai aaj qimat dekhne ki tawaqqo karta hun.

1.0485 ki satah ka breakout intraday chart ke sath-sath markazi rujhan par sell signal ko mansukh kar dega. 1.04 ke ilaqe me wapsi maujudah rujhan ki tasdiq karegi. Aaiye intezar karen aur dekhen.

Fed ki janib se sherah mein 50 bps ka izafa mutawaqqe hai lekin Americi inflation ke aidad o shumar jari hone ke bad sherah me 75 bps izafe ko mustarad nahin kiya ja sakta. Kal, euro ne rate me izafe ki taiyari karte hue, nichli satah se 90 pips pullback kiya. Currency me kami jari rah sakti hai. Americi dollar ke aaj mazbut hone ka imkan hai.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD joda gir gaya hai aur ab yah 1.0635-45 aur 1.0770-85 ki hadd me trade kar raha hai. Mujhe jodi me kami ki tawaqqo thi lekin fir bhi yaqin tha keh yah 1.0900-1.1000 tak badh sakta hai. Takniki ishare ke mutabiq, muzahmatein ab bhi relevant hain aur hamare pas 1.0770-85 aur 1.0830-50 ki do muzahmati satahen hain. Christine Lagarde ke tabseron ne euro ki himayat nahin ki aur currency me kami waqe hui.

Market participants kami ke dauran jodi kharid rahe the. Un satahon par gaur karen jahan jodi ab trade kar rahi hai, bears market me dakhil nahin ho sakte aur bulls apni positions band nahin kar sakte. Filhal, tejarati range salana kam tarin satah ke qarib ban rahi hai aur abhi tak yah wazeh nahin hai keh qimat kis simt se toot sakti hai. Iske alawa, market sud ki sherah par Fed ke faisle ka intezar kar rahi hai. Joda 1.0460-1.0500 aur 1.0505-20 ke muzahmati ilaqon ko ched sakta hai. Agar aisa hota hai to, qimat 1.0635-45 tak badh sakti hai ya yahan tak keh 1.0700-1.0800 ko chu sakti hai. Iske bar-aks, agar joda ooper ki hadd se bahar nikalne me nakam rahta hai to, yah 1.0200-1.0180 ki nayi sanala nichli satah ya is se bhi nichli satah 0.9900 tak pahunch sakti hai. Jaisa keh maine pahle hi zikar kiya hai, euro is sal Americi dollar ke barabar ho sakta hai.

Assalam Alaikum! Mujhe ummid thi keh movement mazbut hogi lekin haqiqat me, hamare pas 1.0400 ki satah ka false breakout hai. Euro ab tak mustahkam hai halankeh bulls ek munasib oopri rujhan taiyar karne ke liye jaddo jahad kar rahe hain. 1-ghante ke chart par, jodi ne din ke dauran 75 points ka ek wasie consolidation zone banaya. Oopri boundary 1.0475 ki satah par payi gayi hai, jabkeh niche wali - 1.0400 par. Qimat ksit hadd se guzregi uski buniyad par ham aage ki simt dekhenge. 1.0360 ki satah se ek accha rebound tha jo tezi ke tassub ko support karta hai. Fir bhi, bears bhi haar manne wale nahin hain kiyunkeh woh volume jama karte rahe hain, aur qimat chart par dayin taraf ja sakti hai. Yah kahna mushkil hai keh yah sab kaise taraqqi karega lekin mai jo dekh raha hun, is jodi ko kam az kam 1.0340 - 1.0300 ke qimat ke ilaqe me dhakela ja raha hai.



Is se qabal Americi Federal Reserve ne ailan kiya tha keh woh sherah badhayega. Market ko 0.75 ke bajaye 0.50 ke kam jarhana izafe ki tawaqqo hai. Is dauran, euro 1.0400 ki support par mustahkam rahne ki puri koshish kar raha hai jo bulls ke liye aakhri ummid hai. Jin hadd ka maine ooper zikar kiya hai, unke andar ek mumkena sideways channel ka tashkil sirf nataij me takhir karti hai. Ab, is channel ko chorne ke liye awamil ki zarurat hai. Aaiye dekhte hain keh ECB kya kahta hai. Waise, aaj BoE bhi rate ka ailan karega.

Is waqt ki aham hikmat amli jodi ko farokht karna hai, aur yah wazeh ho gaya keh kahan farokht karna hai aur ghair mamuli waqeaat ki surat me stop loss kahan muqarrar karna hai.

Assalam Alaikum!

Euro/dollar ki suratehal us se kuch mukhtalif hai jis ki peshan goi ki gayi hai. Sherah me izafe ke size ke bare me Fed ke ailan se pahle, market participants apni farokht ki positions khule rakhe hue the jo dar asal un ke sath ek bada mazaq tha. Buniyadi nuqtah nazar se, farokht karna muntaqi hai kiyunkeh zyada sherah ke sath, qaumi currency mazbut hoti hai. Is surat me, Americi dollar me izafa hona chahiye tha aur iske bad, euro/dollar ke jode me kami mutawaqqe thi. Yah aakhir kar hoga: market me tawazun qayam ho jayega aur sab kuch waisa hi chalega jaisa keh hona chahiye. Halankeh, jab traders munafa hasil karne ke liye farokht kar rahe the, to market ne twist kiya aur girawat ke bajaye muqami izafe ka muzahra kiya. Yah sach hai keh, jodi ne kuch nichli satah ka test kiya lekin aakhir me, qimat wapas range me chali gayi. Ham abhi kya dekh sakte hain? Yaqini taur par, market Jerome Powell ke bayan par radde amal zahir karegi, aur greenback jald hi aage badhega. Press conference ke dauran, Powell ne note kiya keh agli bar, sherah dubara 0.50-0.75 tak badh sakti hai.

Ham is sal bhi jodi ko barabri ki satah par pahunchte hue dekh sakte hain.

Is dauran, qimat ek tang range me barqarar hai aur manfi pahlu abhi tak wazeh nahin hai. Lehaza, is bat ka imkan hai keh quotes 1.0505-20 ke raqbe ko tod dega aur 1.0590-1.0615 tak badh jayega. Is tarah ki taraqqi ki surat me, hamein nigrani karni chahiye keh aay jodi 1.08 ke ilaqe tak pahunchegi ya nahin.

Agar jodi girti hai to niche ki taraf ka hadaf 1.0200-1.018 par paya jata hai.

Mujhe lagta hai keh agle kuch dinon me hamein eur/usd market ka haqiqi radde amal milega. Is dauran, market sirf uljhan ka shikar hai jise 1-ghante ke chart par dekha ja sakta hai.

Mai ab bhi jodi farokht karne ki hikmat amli par qayam hun. Intraday chart par, 1.0430 ki satah ka breakout sell signal ke taur par kam karega. Is surat me, qimat kal ki kam tarin satah 1.0353 ki taraf girti rah sakti hai. Agar yah dubara wahan jata hai to, zyada imkan hai keh, ek acchi nazuli lahar ban jayegi aur nayi nichli satah ka test kiya jayega.

Agar qimat maujudah satah se 1.0470 se ooper toot jati hai to bulls iski tareef kar sakte hain. Fir, 1.0530 ki mazbut muzahmat agla hadaf ban jayegi. Aam taur par, yahan sab kuch mere liye wazeh hai. Mujhe sirf suratehal par nazar rakhne aur faisla karne ki zarurat hai. Bahut sari macroeconomic reports ke darmiyan aaj trading ke fa-aal hone ki tawaqqo hai.

EUR/USD joda 1.0383 - 1.0364 ke haftawar control zone se niche gir gaya aur fir badh gaya aur 1.0551 - 1.0570 ke haftawar nichli satah se haftawar control zone me waqe hadaf tak pahunch gaya. Lehaza, maine kuch munafa fix kar liya hai. Halankeh, mai tawaqqo karta hun keh jodi apni taraqqi ko 1.0575 tak jari rakhegi aur is satah se ooper fix ho jayegi. Is surat me, yah jodi apni rally jari rakh sakti hai.

Hairat angez taur par, sab se ghair maqbul scenario durust tariqe se pura hua kiyunkeh jodi pip to pip 1.06 ki satah par pahunch gayi.

Asuli taur par, qimat ko wapas laya jana chahiye kiyunkeh ooper koi satah baqi nahin hai. Iske alawa, khabron ke darmiyan is tarah ke izafe euro/dollat ke liye mamul ban gaye hain. Aisa kayi bar hua jab qimat ooper ki taraf badhi aur har ek ko ummid thi keh iska matlab trend reversal hoga. Iske bajaye, qimat wapas niche ki taraf chali gayi aur apna mandi ka rujhan is tarah jari rakha jaise kuch hua hi nahin.

Isliye mujhe aaj kisi muajjaze ki ummdi nahin hai. Bears pahle hi qimat ko 1.05 par wapas dhakel chuke hain. Agar jodi 1.0450 tak gir jati hai, to yah stop order ko mutaharik karne ke liye 1.0350 ke nichle hadaf ki taraf rah hamwar karega.

Halankeh, mujhe nahin lagta hai keh aaj aisa hoga. Mumkena taur par, ham ek islah dekhenge aur is pure oruj ko lapet me le lenge jo khabron ke darmiyan hua tha.

Mujhe lagta hai keh agle hafte ek aur dilchap dynamic hoga. Lehaza, aaj, intraday sales tarjih bani hui hai jiska hadaf 1.04 se zyada nahin hai. Shayad ek zig zag bhi ban jaye.

EUR/USD, 2022



Kal, euro/dollar ki jodi char ghante ke chart ke mutabiq descending channel me trade kar rahi thi. Asian session me, qimat is hadd se bahar ho gayi aur ooper ki taraf badhne lagi. Is tarah, yah farz kiya ja sakta hai keh jodi apni tezi ke daud ko jari rakhegi. Maine jodi ke liye ek ascending channel banaya hai. Aaj, mai is channel ki balayi hadd, 1.0681 ki satah tak pahunchne ke quotes se izafe ki badhane ki tawaqqo karta hun. Yah satah yaumiyah chart par outgoing channel ke mawafiq hai, jahan se jodi ke aage badhne ki ummid ki jati hai. Agar qimat is channel se ooper ki taraf nikal jati hai to, jodi mumkena taur par ooper ki harkat jari rakhegi.

EUR/USD, 2021

Assalam Aalikum!

Market pichle waqt se niche ki taraf trade kar rahi hai. Macroeconomic indicators ko dekhte hue, euro/dollar ki jodi kuch arse ke liye daeawb me rahegi. Khas taur par, pichle sal, mahereen ne qimaton me kami ki peshan goi ki thi. Kami ke rujhan ki wajah America me sud ki buland sherahon ke sath-sath European union ke digar aidad o shumar bhi hain jo euro ko niche le ja rahe hain.



Aakhir kar, market ne euro/dollar ke jode ke liye ek islah zahir ki. Iske alawa, iski niche ki taraf harkat kafi numaya thi. Itne bade nuqsanat ke bad, rebound ki tawaqqo rakhna mutaqi hai. Is tarah, mujhe yaqin hai keh euro/dollar ki jodi 1.0734 ki satah par islah dekhega jiske bad 1.02 ki hadaf ki satah par ek aur kami aayegi.

EUR/USD, 2021

Assalam Aalikum!

Euro/dollar ke jode ne naye karobari din ka aaghaz faide ke sath kiya. Halankeh, faide ko badhane aur 1.0650 ki satah tak pahunchne ke liye, qimat ko ibtedai karobar me mazbut oopri raftar hasil karne ki zarurat hai. Is waqt, 1.0650 ka nishan qarib tarin satah hai, jahan se joda niche ki taraf mud sakta hai.

Lehaza, mai maujudah satahon se short positions par gaur nahin karta hun. Is suratehal me munafa kamane ka behtarin tariqa long positions ke liye jana hai.

Takniki indicator ke mutabiq, jode ki intraday harkat ooper ki taraf hone ka imkan hai.

Open positions ka tanasub zahir karta hai keh jodi ke niche ki taraf badhne ki tawaqqo hai.

Halankeh, mujhe lagta hai keh 1.06-1.0650 ke target area tak pahunchne ke liye kharidari ke signal par tawajjoh markuz karna qabile qadar hai.