Nzdjpy

NZDJPY ka market analysis karte waqt hamein kuch ahem pehluon par ghor karna hoga, jisse hamein is currency pair ke future trend ka andaza ho sake. 19 February 2025 ko, New Zealand Dollar (NZD) ki Japanese Yen (JPY) ke muqable mein kamzori ka imkaan hai, jo ke Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) ke aakhri announcement ke baad zahir hota hai. RBNZ ne apne interest rate ko 50 basis points tak kam kar diya hai, jo pehle 4.25% tha aur ab 3.75% hai. Yeh faisla NZD par downward pressure daal raha hai, jo ke is waqt ke bearish trend ke saath milta hai.

Is bearish trend ki ek nishani yeh hai ke jab price 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke kareeb pahuncha, toh wahan dynamic resistance ka samna kiya. Lekin, price dubara 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke neeche aagayi hai, jo ke agle girawat ki nishani hai. Is downward movement ka immediate target 85.23 ka low price hai, jo ke ek key support level hai.

Agar hum pehle ke corrective phase ko dekhein, toh price ne 50% Fibonacci retracement level (FR 50) ko do martaba test kiya hai, jo yeh darust karta hai ke retracement phase khatm hone ke kareeb hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke price ka 61.8% Fibonacci level (FR 61.8) par upar ki taraf wapas aana mushkil hai, kyunki yeh 87.71 par hai. Jab price 50-period EMA aur 38.2% Fibonacci level (FR 38.2) ko face karti hai, toh upward momentum ko sustain karna mushkil hota hai, jo bearish sentiment ko mazid majboot karta hai.

Agar price 23.6% Fibonacci level (FR 23.6) ko 86.18 ke aas-paas break kar deti hai, toh is se yeh darust hota hai ke aage aur girawat ki sambhavna hai, jo ke naye lower low establish kar sakta hai. Price action ka yeh structure, jo lower lows aur lower highs par mabni hai, is bearish trend ke saath milta hai.

Awesome Oscillator (AO) histogram ne negative territory mein ghus kar zero level ke neeche chala gaya hai. Yeh movement downtrend ke peeche ke momentum ko darust karta hai, jo NZDJPY pair ke liye aage ki girawat ki sambhavna ko darust karta hai. Halankeh histogram volume abhi tak zyada expand nahi hua hai, lekin price structure aur trend direction downwards hone ke haq mein hai. Stochastic indicator bhi oversold region (20 se 10 ke beech) mein hai, aur yeh 50 level tak nahi pahunchega. Yeh is baat ki nishani hai ke potential crossing jaldi ho sakta hai, jo bearish narrative ko support karta hai.

Trade setup ke liye, yeh established lower low-lower high price structure jo bearish trend ke saath milta hai, is se trading strategy kaafi seedhi hai. Aapko sell trade ka re-entry position lekar chalna chahiye agar price 38.2% Fibonacci level (FR 38.2) par 86.76 ya 50-period EMA tak wapas aata hai. Aapka primary target profit-taking ke liye 85.23 ka low price hoga, jabke stop-loss ko 50% Fibonacci level (FR 50) par 87.23 rakha ja sakta hai.

Is trade setup ki tasdiq is par mabni hai ke stochastic indicator 50 level ke aas-paas cross kare, jo potential momentum shifts ko darust karega. Iske alawa, AO histogram ko downtrend ki tasdiq dene ke liye negative area mein majboot hona chahiye aur volume ke expansion ki nishani dikhani chahiye. Yeh sab kuch NZDJPY pair ke liye bearish outlook ko mazid darust karega aur successful trade execution ki sambhavna ko barhata hai.

Akhir mein, interest rate cuts, price structure analysis, aur momentum indicators ka ye combination NZDJPY ke liye bearish sentiment ki taraf ishara kar raha hai, jo traders ke liye downward movements par faida uthane ka mauka faraham karta hai.

NZD/JPY ka analysis karte hue, aaj hum 19 February 2025 ke liye support aur resistance levels par ghoor karenge. Is waqt NZD/JPY ki current price 86.861 hai. Iske kareeb sabse pehla support level 86.784 hai, jabke doosra support level 86.401 hai. Iske ilawa, sabse nazdeek ka resistance level 87.014 hai, aur iske baad doosra resistance level 87.313 hai. Is analysis ka maqsad ye hai ke hum NZD/JPY ke price movement ka ek comprehensive view pradan karein, key levels par khaas analysis karein, aur aaj ke liye kuch potential trading scenarios ka jaiza lein.

Haali mein, NZD/JPY ne ek dilchasp pattern dikhaya hai. Aik broader technical perspective se dekhein to ye currency pair ek tight range mein fluctuate kar raha hai, jo ke consolidation phase ka ishara hai. Is waqt price 86.861 par hai, jo ke critical levels ko test kar raha hai. Support aur resistance par price ka reaction agle direction tay karne mein bohot ahmiyat rakhta hai. Halanki pichle chand mahinon mein NZD/JPY ne bullish trend dekha, lekin ab strong selling pressure ne is price ko nazdeek ke support 86.784 tak le aaya hai. Agar price is level ke upar reh sakti hai aur wapas bounce karti hai, to is se agle resistance 87.014 ki taraf badhne ka mauqa mil sakta hai. Lekin agar selling pressure jari rehta hai aur price support se neeche girti hai, to hum doosre support 86.401 tak ke decline dekh sakte hain.

Is waqt price movement bohot crucial hai kyunki ye 86.784 ke support aur 87.014 ke resistance ke darmiyan hai. Is wajah se do main scenarios ubhar kar samne aate hain: ya to price in key levels me se kisi ek ko break karegi ya phir consolidation range mein rahegi. Agar price 86.784 se neeche girti hai to is se decline 86.401 ki taraf dekha ja sakta hai, jabke agar price is support se bounce karti hai to 87.014 ki taraf wapas badhne ka mauqa milega. Agar price 87.014 ko cross karti hai, to ye buyer dominance ka signal ban sakta hai, jo ke 87.313 ki taraf badhne mein madadgar hoga.

Trading scenarios ke liye aaj kuch options dekhe ja sakte hain jo ke maujooda support aur resistance levels par mabni hain. Agar price 86.784 ke upar rehti hai aur reversal ke asar dikhati hai, to 86.800 - 86.820 ke aas paas buy position kholi ja sakti hai, jiska take profit target 87.014 hoga aur stop loss 86.750 ke neeche rakha jayega taake risk manage kiya ja sake. Iske muqabil, agar price 86.784 se neeche girti hai aur strong bearish momentum dikhati hai, to 86.750 - 86.770 ke aas paas sell position lena behtar hoga, jiska target 86.401 aur stop loss 86.820 ke upar hoga.

Aakhir mein, NZD/JPY ka movement ek critical phase mein hai, jo ke 86.784 ke support aur 87.014 ke resistance ke darmiyan consolidate ho raha hai. In levels par price ka reaction ye tay karega ke kya breakout hota hai ya market sideways pattern mein rahega. Traders ko chahiye ke wo confirmation signals ka intezar karein pehle trading decisions lene se, aur ek sound risk management strategy ko apnaayein taake market ki uncertainties ka behtar tor par samna kiya ja sake. Is tarah, NZD/JPY ki analysis se humein ye samajhne mein madad milegi ke market kahan ja sakta hai aur humein apne trading strategies ko kaise tayyar karna chahiye.

Yen Trading ka is haftay ka jaiza lena ek dilchasp mauqa hai. Aakhri Jumeraat ko Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data ke nikalne ke baad, yen pairs mein khaas tor par izafa dekha gaya. Lekin, humein yeh samajhna zaroori hai ke yeh pairs teen saal ki bullish movement ke peak par hain, aur lambay waqt ke liye bearish reversal ke nishaan dikhai de rahe hain.

Consolidation ya Reversal?


Aakhri bullish movement ko dekhte hue, lagta hai ke yeh sirf consolidation ka marahil hai, na ke upward trend ka jaari rehna. Isliye, meri raye yeh hai ke mujhe is currency pair par bearish nazar hai. Yeh behtar hoga ke aap 88/89 ke levels par sell signals ka intezar karein, jahan par kai resistance levels maujood hain. Ek swing trader ke tor par, main iss waqt in levels par long positions lene ka irada nahi rakhta.

Monthly Chart Analysis


Jab hum monthly chart ka jaiza lete hain, to yahan par ek bearish harami cross pattern nazar aata hai, jo ke ek mazboot bearish candle ke saath hai. Yeh pattern teen saal ki bullish movement ke peak par ubhar raha hai, jo ke yeh darust karta hai ke aage downward action ki umeed ki ja sakti hai. Halankeh, abhi yeh pair consolidation phase mein hai aur Fibonacci 78.6% support level se bhi upar aa gaya hai, jo ke January mein breach hua tha.
Weekly Chart Analysis


Weekly chart par, bullish trend khatar mein hai. Humne dekha ke ek lower low banne ke baad pair ne rally ki aur higher high banayi. Yeh pair pichle do mahine se in levels par range trading kar raha hai. Teen black crows pattern ki ubharne se yeh darust hota hai ke yahan par kamzori hai, jab price pehle ke lower low ko dobarah revisit kar raha hai. Lekin, is haftay humne ek bullish engulfing pattern dekha hai jo ke 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke support par hai. Iske bawajood, stochastic indicator par clear bearish divergence hone se, mujhe is pair mein rallies ke doran sell karne ki taraf jhukhav hai. Weekly chart par bullish engulfing candle yeh darust karti hai ke consolidation phase abhi bhi jaari hai.
Daily Chart Analysis


Daily chart par, dono 100 SMA aur 200 SMA 88/89 levels ke as-paas hain, jo ke pehle ki bearish movement ka 50% Fibonacci retracement level hai. Main kisi bhi strong bearish signals ka intezar karunga 4-hour timeframe par in levels par bechne ke liye.
Trading Strategy


Upar diye gaye analyses ko dekhte hue, meri strategy yeh hogi ke main rallies ke doran sell opportunities dhoondun, khaaskar 88/89 ke key resistance levels par. Main shorter timeframes, jaise ke 4-hour chart par bearish signals ka intezar karunga, taake sell positions le sakun. Is waqt ke market conditions ko dekhte hue, jo ke consolidation phase mein hain, yeh zaroori hai ke hum ehtiyaat se kaam lein aur trading decisions mein jaldi na karein.


Conclusion


Kul mila kar, jabke short-term bullish movements ki sambhavnayein hain, main is yen pair par bearish outlook rakhta hoon. Is waqt ke consolidation levels par significant resistance levels par bechne ka mauqa mil sakta hai. Monthly aur weekly charts par dikhai dene wale bearish patterns, saath hi stochastic indicator par bearish divergence, yeh sab yeh darust karte hain ke aane wale waqt mein aur neeche ki taraf movements ki umeed hai. Isliye, mera focus yeh hoga ke sahi levels par sell signals ko pehchaanun aur chart developments ko dekhte hue sound trading decisions karun.

Is tarah, traders ko market signals par nazar rakhni chahiye, khaaskar identified resistance levels ke as-paas, aur unhein broader market context ka bhi khayal rakhna chahiye, jo ke yen pairs mein bullish se bearish sentiment shift hone ki sambhavnayein dikhata hai.