Weekly Analysis

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Agle Week mein: US Inflation aur Retail Sales, UK Economic Growth ki Detail

Aane wale dino mein markets ko pichle hectic haftay ke baad sanbhalne ka mauka milega. US ke presidential election mein Donald Trump ne overwhelming jeet hasil ki, jiske baad US Federal Reserve aur Bank of England ne interest rates mein aik quarter percent ka cut kiya. Ab investors ye samajhne ki koshish kar rahe hain ke iska kya matlab hai aur woh upcoming US inflation aur retail sales ke announcements ke sath UK GDP par bhi nazar rakhenge.


US Election: Trump Ki Kamyabi


Ek tight race ki umeed ke bawajood, president-elect Donald Trump ne vice-president Kamala Harris ko comfortably hara diya. Trump ne na sirf required 270 electoral college votes hasil kiye balki woh 2004 ke baad pehli dafa popular vote jeetne wale pehle Republican candidate ban gaye.


Wall Street ne election ke natayej par positive react kiya, aur US stock markets jese ke S&P 500 aur Dow Jones mein woh optimism dekha gaya jo investors ne Trump ke deregulation aur economic growth ke promises par rakha hai. Bond yields bhi inflation ke dar ke sath barh gaye, kyunke umeed hai ke Trump ke proposed tax cuts ko fund karne ke liye government borrowing mein izafa hoga. US dollar ne doosri currencies ke muqable mein strength gain ki, kyunke expected pro-growth fiscal package Fed ke sharp interest rate cuts ki zaroorat ko kam kar sakta hai. Agar rates zyada der tak high rehte hain, tou dollar deposits zyada attractive ban sakti hain. Recent US economic data bhi strong rahi hai, siwaye October ke hurricane-affected non-farm payrolls ke, jo rate cuts, higher yields, aur ek strong dollar ke case ko support karta hai.


Magar yeh dekhna baqi hai ke equity market ka response Trump ki jeet ke liye confidence ka izhar tha ya sirf ek volatility reset jese ke hum aksar bade events ke baad dekhte hain. Agar Fed kam rate cuts kare, dollar strong ho, aur government bond yields barhen, tou financial conditions tight ho sakti hain, jo ke US stocks ke liye negative ho sakti hain. Rates aur dollar wo key drivers lagte hain jo agle hafte aur mahino mein equity markets ka rukh tay kar sakte hain.

US October Inflation

Wednesday 13 November (CPI), Thursday 14 November (PPI)


Analysts ka andaza hai ke US consumer price index (CPI) October tak ke saal mein 2.6% increase hua, jo September ke 2.4% se zyada hai. Monthly basis par, CPI mein 0.2% ka izafa hone ki umeed hai, jo ke September ke muqablay mein flat hai. Core CPI, jo food aur energy prices ko exclude karta hai, year-on-year 3.3% aur month-on-month 0.3% barhne ka andaza hai, jo dono September se unchanged hain.


Wednesday ke CPI release ke baad, Thursday ka producer price index (PPI) data month-on-month 0.2% ka izafa aur core PPI 0.3% barhne ka andaza hai, jo September ke data ke sath line mein hain.


Agar inflation expectations se zyada hota hai, tou Fed interest rate cuts ko slow kar sakta hai, jo dollar ko support de sakta hai, khaaskar euro ke muqable mein. EUR/USD pair abhi $1.06 support level ke kareeb hai, aur agar yeh threshold breach hota hai tou $1.04 tak girne ka chance hai.





UK Q3 GDP


Investors UK ke third-quarter GDP data ko caution ke sath dekh sakte hain. UK ka economic growth 2022 mein bohot kam tha aur 2023 mein ruk gaya tha, lekin 2024 ke pehle half mein growth ke signs dikhne lage, jisme Q1 mein 0.7% aur Q2 mein 0.5% growth dekha gaya. Agar UK economy ne 2023 ke second half ke recession ke baad waqai growth mein wapsi ki hai, tou naye government ke spending plans, jo 30 October ke Budget mein announce hue, UK stocks mein rally spark kar sakte hain. Lekin yeh potential gains Keynesian “animal spirits” ya emotions ki wajah se ho sakte hain, fundamental value ke bajaye, kyunke government ka investment time lega tangible results dene mein.


FTSE 100, jo year-to-date 4.5% up hai, May se range mein trade kar raha hai, 8,000 aur 8,400 ke beech mein. Lekin, agar UK economy mein growth ke signs revive hote hain tou index ko faida ho sakta hai. Footsie ka momentum lately weak hua hai, RSI ke hisaab se, lekin agar GDP reading achi aati hai tou share index support se upar jaa kar resistance 8,400 tak pohanch sakta hai. Wohi, agar GDP weak hota hai tou FTSE 100 neeche 7,900 ki taraf ja sakta hai.

US October Retail Sales

US retail sales mein 0.3% month-on-month increase hone ki umeed hai, jo September ke 0.4% se kam hai. Retail sales dollar ke rukh mein bhi asar daal sakti hain, kyunke ek strong reading – inflation data ke sath earlier week mein – Fed ke interest rate cuts ko delay karne ka sabab ban sakta hai.


Dollar index, jo US dollar ko six major currencies ke muqable mein measure karta hai, RSI aur Bollinger Bands ke hisaab se overbought levels par ho sakta hai, jo near term mein consolidation ka ishara de sakta hai. Lekin, agar index convincingly 104.70 ke upar move karta hai tou 107 tak pohanch sakta hai.

Key Economic Events

Aane wale hafte mein kuch notable economic announcements aur US aur UK company reports:

• Monday 11 November
  • - Australia: November Westpac consumer confidence
  • - New Zealand: Q4 inflation expectations
  • - US: Q3 loan officer survey
  • - Results: Live Nation Entertainment (Q3)
• Tuesday 12 November
  • - Germany: October harmonised consumer price index (CPI)
  • - UK: September average earnings, September unemployment rate, October jobless benefit claimant count
  • - Results: AstraZeneca (Q3), Flutter Entertainment (Q3), Home Depot (Q3), Rocket Companies (Q3), Sea Limited (Q3), Shopify (Q3), Spotify (Q3), Tencent Music Entertainment (Q3), Tyson Foods (Q4), Vodafone (HY)
• Wednesday 13 November
  • - Australia: Q3 wage price index
  • - Eurozone: September industrial production
  • - UK: Bank of England monetary policy report hearings
  • - US: October CPI
  • - Results: Cisco Systems (Q1), Nu (Q3), Occidental Petroleum (Q3), Smiths (Q1)
• Thursday 14 November [/COLOR]
  • - Australia: October unemployment rate, November consumer inflation expectations
  • - Eurozone: Q3 GDP, Q3 employment change
  • - Japan: Q3 GDP
  • - US: October PPI, initial jobless claims to 8 November
  • - Results: Applied Materials (Q4), Aviva (Q3), JD.Com (Q3), NetEase (Q3), Walt Disney (Q4), WH Smith (FY)
• Friday 15 November
  • - China: October retail sales, October industrial production
  • - France: October CPI
  • - UK: Q3 GDP
  • - US: October retail sales, October industrial production
  • - Results: Alibaba (Q3), Land Securities (HY).

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

EUR/USD, USD/JPY aur AUD/USD ka Weekly Forecast – Forex Markets ke liye Mixed Week

US dollar mein abhi bhi kaafi “noisy” behavior dekhne ko mil raha hai, kyunki market ko currency markets ke ilawa bahar ki duniya ke kai sawaalon aur asraat ko samajhna hoga.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Pichlay haftay Euro mein bohot volatility dekhi gayi, kyunki US elections aur Federal Reserve ke announcement ke baad bohot kuch change ho gaya. Is doran, hum ne Euro mein kaafi zyada girawat dekhi, magar haftay ke aakhir mein dollar ne thodi weakness dikhayi. Filhal hum consolidation ke beech hain.

Stochastic oscillator ek oversold condition mein cross kar raha hai, aur is wajah se mujhe lagta hai ke Euro bounce kar sakta hai. Lekin ye ziada tar sideways action hi hai aur kuch naya nahi ho raha.



USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Shuru mein, US dollar ne Japanese yen ke khilaf kaafi significant rally ki, lekin phir gains wapas ho gaye aur noise dekhne mein aayi. 150 yen ka level neeche support provide kar sakta hai, jabke 155 yen ka level resistance offer karega. Agar hum 155 yen ka level cross karte hain toh 162.50 yen level tak pohanchne ke chances hain.

Agar hum 150 yen se neeche break karte hain toh wahan se reset karna padega aur dekhna hoga ke cheezein kis tarah se unfold hoti hain. Lekin mere khayal mein ye buying ka mauka hoga, kyunki Federal Reserve ne rates cut kiye hain lekin bond market par koi asar nahi pada aur rates America mein barhte hi ja rahe hain. Is wajah se carry trade abhi bhi alive hai.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Australian dollar mein bhi is hafte kaafi volatility dekhi gayi. Lagta hai ke hum hafte ke aakhir mein slight upside pe close karenge, lekin bohot hi minor tareeke se. Aur asal mein ye candlestick sirf yahi dikha raha hai ke hum abhi bhi wahi range mein hain.

Mujhe lagta hai ke Australian dollar mein aage bhi back aur forth kaafi dekhne ko milega. Lekin agar is par nazar daali jaye toh ye range bound trading ka pattern pichle kayi mahine se waisa hi hai aur kuch naya nahi ho raha.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Next Week Analysis: UK aur US me inflation data aur central bank rate decisions

Christmas se pehle ka aakhri full trading week kafi eventful hoga. Is article me hum UK aur US ke November inflation data, teen central banks ke interest rate decisions aur Micron Technology ke quarterly earnings par focus karte hain. Saath hi, PMI data, retail sales aur doosre aham events par bhi nazar rakhna zaroori hai – tafseelat ke liye neeche events calendar dekhein.

Friday ke baad, scheduled financial events kam ho jate hain, aur Christmas aur New Year ke holidays investors aur traders ko markets se zaruri break dete hain. Jo market sentiment Christmas tak banega, woh January ke start tak carry hoga.

Yeh 2024 ka aakhri Week Ahead hai, lekin hum Friday, 10 January ko wapas aayenge. Jin log Christmas manate hain, unko merry Christmas, aur sab readers ko naye saal ki dher saari mubarakbaad!

UK aur US November inflation data
(Monday 18 December - UK CPI, Jumma, 20 December - US PCE)

Analysts ka andaza hai ke UK ka consumer price index (CPI) November tak 2.6% barha, jo October ke 2.3% se zyada hai. Yeh month-on-month sirf 0.1% ka izafa dikhata hai – jo October ke 0.6% ke muqable mein kaafi slow hai.



US ka personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, jo Federal Reserve ka pasandeeda inflation measure hai, 2.5% tak barhne ki umeed hai, jo October ke 2.3% se zyada hai. Core reading (jo food aur energy prices ko exclude karti hai) ke 2.9% tak barhne ka andaza hai, jo pichle mahine ke 2.8% se upar hai. Monthly figure headline aur core PCE dono ke liye 0.2% ka izafa dikhata hai.

Yeh dono announcements GBP/USD ko traders ki tawajjo ka markaz banaye rakhengi. Pound, $1.28 ki resistance ko break karne mein nakam raha hai aur momentum downward lag raha hai. Agar resistance barqarar rahta hai, toh dollar ki mazbooti GBP/USD ko $1.25 tak le jaa sakti hai.

Central bank interest rate decisions
(Budh, 18 December - US, Jumeraat, 19 December - Japan aur UK)

Federal Reserve central bank rate decisions ka round shuru karta hai, jahan market me 0.25% rate cut ka near-100% chance hai. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ka outlook itna clear nahi; rate hold kaafi likely hai, lekin rate hike ka 20% chance bhi price kiya gaya hai. Bank of England se bhi rate unchanged rakhne ki umeed hai.



Agar koi surprise aaya, toh woh Bank of Japan se ho sakta hai. Recent headlines ne rate hike ko na confirm kiya hai na deny, isliye possibilities 20% se zyada ho sakti hain.

Japanese yen ne December ki shuruaat me dollar ke muqable ¥149.60 se current ¥153+ levels tak girawat dekhi hai. Agar USD/JPY ¥153.60 ke upar chala gaya, toh mid-November levels (~¥154) tak wapas jaane ka chance hai. Agar BoJ surprise hike karta hai, toh yen mazboot hoke USD/JPY ko ¥148.60 ya shayad ¥146.40 tak le jaa sakta hai.

Aane wale hafte ke aham events aur company reports

Monday, 16 December

China: November industrial production, retail sales
Eurozone, France, Germany, UK, US: December flash PMI data
Results: Koi major earnings nahi

Tuesday, 17 December

Canada: November CPI
UK: October unemployment rate
US: November retail sales
Results: Heico (Q4)

Wednesday, 18 December

Eurozone: November CPI
New Zealand: Q3 GDP
UK: November CPI, producer price index, retail price index
US: Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Results: Birkenstock (Q4), General Mills (Q2), IntegraFin (FY), Jabil (Q1), Micron Technology (Q1)

Turseday, 19 December

Australia: December inflation expectations
Japan: BoJ interest rate decision
UK: Bank of England interest rate decision
US: Q3 GDP
Results: Accenture (Q1), CarMax (Q3), Cintas (Q2), Conagra Brands (Q2), Darden Restaurants (Q2), Factset Research Systems (Q1), FedEx (Q2), Lennar (Q4), Nike (Q2), Paychex (Q2)

Friday, 20 December

UK: November retail sales
US: November PCE price index
Results: Carnival (Q4)

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Markets Weekly Outlook – US Jobs Data in Focus as King Dollar Eyes Further Gains

US dollar ne 2025 ki shuruaat mazbooti ke saath ki, do saal ke buland tareen level par pohanch gaya, jabke US equities disappointing rahi, Santa Rally ki kami ke sabab. Global equity funds ke inflows pichle hafte ke muqable me 86% gir gaye, jo rising bond yields aur portfolio rebalancing ki wajah se hua. Is hafte ka focus US NFP jobs report par hoga jo USD ki bartari par asar daal sakta hai. Australia ke CPI, retail sales aur trade balance data economy ke hawale se insights faraham karenge.

Week in Review: King Dollar Starts 2025 on the Offensive… More to Come?

Ek hafta jo 2024 me shuru hua aur 2025 me khatam, un asharaat ka izhar karta hai jo log is saal ke liye umeed kar rahe the.

Sabse bara ashara yeh hai ke US Dollar 2025 me bhi king bana rahega, kyunke Dollar Index ne 2025 ka aaghaz mazbooti ke saath kiya. DXY ne 109.50 ke upar, jo do saal ka buland tareen level hai, hit kiya.

US equities ne Santa Rally ke hawale se mayusi dikhai. S&P 500 index ne December 26 se lagataar 5 din ke liye nuksan uthaya. Lekin, jaise maine Thursday wale article (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Update – Are Wall Street Indexes Set for a January Jump?) me discuss kiya tha, January ya kam az kam iska pehla hissa historically US stocks ke liye acha rehta hai.

Fund flows ki baat karein to, LSEG Lipper ke data ke mutabiq investors ne $4.93 billion ke global equity funds me net paisa lagaya, jo pichle hafte ke $35.1 billion ke muqable me 86% kam tha. Yeh rising bond yields ki wajah se hua, jaise US 10Y yield May 2 ke baad 4.64% ke buland tareen level par pohanchi.

Gold ke prices is hafte thore barhe, lekin zyadatar rangebound rahe. Iska sabab competing narratives hain. Donald Trump ke proposed tariffs strong US Dollar ka ishara karte hain, lekin global economy, geopolitics aur tariffs ki uncertainty safe haven demand ko barqarar rakhti hai.

Brent crude oil ne is hafte zabardast performance dikhai, 7 ya 8 hafte ki consolidation ke baad. Brent takreeban 4% barh gaya, jabke US stockpiles gir rahi hain. 2025 ke liye oil ka outlook positive nahi hai. Reuters ke recent poll ke mutabiq analysts Brent ke $70 per barrel hone ki umeed karte hain, jabke 2024 me takreeban 3% ka nuksan hua.

The Week Ahead: NFP to Pose a Test for USD Dominance

Highlights me Monday ko China ka Caixin Service PMI shamil hai. Markets ki nazar China par hogi aur Yuan aur Chinese bonds ke hawale se jo developments hui hain, wo Japan 90s ka ahsaas dilati hain.

Deflationary worries barh rahi hain jabke Yuan naye lows par US Dollar ke muqable me gira hai. Lekin manufacturing data kaafi had tak positive raha. Kamzor Yuan shayad Chinese authorities ki strategy ho jo proposed trade tariffs ka samna karne ke liye banayi gayi ho.

Wednesday aur Thursday ka focus Australia par hoga, jahan CPI data ke saath retail sales aur trade balance data release honge. Yeh data Australian economy ke hawale se mazeed insights faraham karega, jo 2024 me rollercoaster rahi hai, zyada tar Australian Dollar ki commodity currency tag aur China ke issues ki wajah se.

Europe + UK + US

Developed markets me agle hafte ka focus US par hoga, jahan NFP jobs report release hone wali hai. US Dollar ke zabardast 2025 ke aaghaz ke madde nazar, markets is data aur pehle ke numbers me kisi bhi adjustment par nazar rakhein ge.



Initial prediction ke mutabiq December ke non-farm payrolls me 153,000 ka izafa hoga, jahan estimates 125,000 se 200,000 tak hain. Yeh umeedain hafte bhar update hoti rahengi, jab aur data jaise job openings, ADP private payrolls aur ISM employment figures release honge.

Unemployment rate 4.2% par barqarar rehne ki tawaqqa hai, jabke wage growth pichle saal ke muqable me 4% par rahegi. Yeh sab job market ki slowdown ko dikhata hai. 2024 me Federal Reserve ne 100 basis points ka rate cut kiya tha, aur market participants 2025 ke liye takreeban 50 bps ke aur cuts price kar rahe hain.

Europe me inflation data release hoga, jabke Euro ne greenback ke muqable me do saal ke lows hit kiye hain. Market participants EUR/USD me parity ki possibility ko dekh rahe hain. Agar inflation girta hai, to rate cut bets barh sakti hain, jabke ECB ka low growth ke saath struggle jari hai. Aisi surat-e-haal US Federal Reserve ke policies se mazeed farq paida kar sakti hai aur EUR/USD parity ke qareeb le jaa sakti hai.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis

DXY ne January 2 ko consolidation tod kar naya saal shandar tareeke se shuru kiya. Index 109.50 resistance level tak barh gaya, jo do saal ka buland tareen level bhi hai.

Lekin Friday ke daily candle close ne ek inside bar bearish candle ke taur par close karna tha, jo agle hafte ek pullback ka ishara deta hai. Lekin recent history ko dekhte huye, pullbacks lagataar choti muddat ke liye rahe hain jabse DXY rally pichle September ke end se shuru hui hai.

Ek ascending trendline hai jo deeper pullback ki surat me active ho sakti hai. Filhaal, immediate support 108.50 par hai, iske baad 108.00 aur 107.50 levels focus me aayenge.

Agar current price se push upar jata hai, to sabse pehle is hafte ke highs 109.53 ko todna hoga, phir 110.00 aur 110.50 levels focus me aayenge.