aud/usd

AUDUSD Technical Analysis 6 November 2024
Forex Analysis - Teknikally, main dekh raha hoon ke AUDUSD pair ek aise price position mein enter kar gaya hai jo abhi bhi ek acchi entry point ke tor pe consider ki ja sakti hai.

Chart Analysis: Agar hum AUDUSD pair ke chart ko 1 Hour Time Frame mein dekhein, tou analysis karte hain:
Price Action (Trader Pressure) analysis ke zariye, market trend mein lagta hai ke AUDUSD abhi bhi bullish (upar ki taraf) trend mein hai, lekin humein trend reversal ka bhi khayal rakhna hoga agar price Support area ko tod de aur price consolidation dekhne ko mile.



Candle history mein hum Buy entry opportunities dekh sakte hain, lekin zyada objective hone ke liye, main buy ya sell entries ka analysis present karunga.
Agar hum chart ko dekhein tou Buyer pressure (green candle ki lambaai) dheere dheere price ko barhane ki koshish kar raha hai, magar Seller pressure (red candle ki lambaai) usse counter nahi kar pa raha, aur Higher Low bana raha hai.
Iska matlab hai ke Buyers abhi bhi price ke kuch specific levels ko dominate kar rahe hain. Magar, Sell opportunities bhi iss AUDUSD pair mein maujood hain.

Resistance aur Support Levels
Resistance area ko main price ke upar wale line se determine karta hoon (0.6617 – 0.6603).
Support area ko hum price ke neeche wale do lines se dekh sakte hain (0.6573 – 0.6562).
Entry Setup: Meri entry setup options niche diye gaye hain, jo aap apni trading style ke mutabiq use kar sakte hain:

1. Breakout Setup:

Agar 1-hour candle close price Upper Resistance Line (0.6617) ko tod de, tou buy entry ke liye prepare ho jao.
Agar 1-hour candle close price Support Area ke Lower Limit (0.6562) ko tod de, tou sell entry ke liye prepare ho jao.
Cut Loss: Agar 1-hour candle close price Resistance Area ke neeche (0.6603) ho tou buy entry ke liye, ya Support Area ke upar (0.6573) ho tou sell entry ke liye. Aur risk ratio minimum 1:1 rakhein.
2. Pullback Setup (SELL position ke liye):
Pullback area ko Resistance area ke roop mein use karein, agar 1-hour candle close price pullback area mein ho, tou sell position le sakte hain.
Cut Loss: Agar 1-hour candle close price pullback area ke upar (0.6617) ho tou.
Risk ratio minimum 1:1.
3. Pullback Setup (BUY position ke liye):
Pullback area ko Support area ke roop mein use karein, agar 1-hour candle close price pullback area mein ho, tou buy position le sakte hain.
Cut Loss: Agar 1-hour candle close price pullback area ke neeche (0.6562) ho tou.
Risk ratio minimum 1:1.
Money Management: Har entry mein achi money management ka istemal karna zaroori hai taake trading ka continuity healthy ho, aur Fake Breakout candles se bachne ke liye hamesha alert rahein.

AUDUSD ke Ahem Points:
AUDUSD ek bohot acha currency pair hai jo traders ke liye acha munafa kamane ka moka deta hai. Pichlay kuch hafton mein, Australian Dollar (AUD) ne United States Dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein mazbooti dikhayi hai, jo un logon ke liye opportunities create kar raha hai jo actively market ko monitor kar rahe hain. AUD ki yeh mazbooti Australia ke ache economic indicators ki wajah se hai, jaise ke mazboot commodity exports aur key goods ki rising demand.



Yeh zaroori hai ke samjha jaye ke jab ke Australian Dollar upar ja raha hai, waisa hi US Dollar bhi apni taqat wapis paa raha hai, khas taur par upcoming economic news events ke wajah se. Federal Reserve ke policy changes, interest rate decisions, aur US ke economic reports USD ko support de rahe hain, jo AUDUSD market mein volatility laa sakte hain. Is liye, market ke wider environment ko samajhna zaroori hai. Short-term fluctuations long-term traders ke liye zyada munafa nahi de sakti, is liye larger time frames par focus karna behtar hai. Weekly ya daily charts ka istemal karke traders overall trend ko clearly samajh sakte hain aur minute-by-minute price action ke noise se bach sakte hain. Yeh time frames zyada reliable signals dete hain, khas taur par jab inhe technical indicators jaise moving averages, support aur resistance levels, aur Fibonacci retracements ke saath combine kiya jaye, jo entry aur exit points ko identify karne mein madad karte hain.

Mushkil Nazariya:

Agar hum broader nazar se dekhein to AUDUSD market traders ke liye ek exciting opportunity hai, khaas taur par un logon ke liye jo long-term strategies par focus karte hain. Australia aur United States ke economic events se waqif rehkar, large time frames ka analysis kar ke, aur achi money management practices apply kar ke, hum apni success ke chances ko maximize kar sakte hain. Mujhe ummed hai ke sabr aur discipline ke saath AUDUSD market traders ke liye profitable opportunities provide karta rahega.

RBA ki Interest Rate Policy aur Economic Overview:
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tab tak interest rates ko cut nahi karega jab tak inflation apne 2-3% ke target range mein wapis nahi aata. Labor market abhi bhi tight hai, employment ka growth strong hai aur job vacancies bhi barh gayi hain. Australian bond futures naye lows tak gir gaye hain, jabke AUD/USD ko US yield differentials ke narrow hone se support mil raha hai.
Overview:
RBA ka kehna hai ke wo interest rates tab tak nahi ghatayega jab tak usse yeh yakeen nahi ho jata ke inflation apne target range ke beech aa jayega, jo ke is baat ko samajhne ke liye kayi wajah hai ke wo kisi cheez ko control nahi kar sakta ya kisi bhi faislay ko rule out nahi kar sakta. November ki monetary policy statement ka hawkish tone market ki expectations ko soften hone se rok raha hai, jisme Australian government bond futures ke three-year contract naye lows par gaye. Yeh, aur China ke equity markets mein jo gains aaye, ne AUD/USD ko upar push kiya.
RBA ka Hawkish Tone aur Labor Market ki Mazbooti:
RBA ki aakhri statement ne un logon ke liye khudai khabar di jo jaldi interest rate cuts ki umeed kar rahe the. Pehli baat yeh thi ke "core inflation abhi bhi bohot zyada hai". Unhone yeh bhi kaha ke "aggregate demand abhi bhi economy ki supply capacity se zyada hai," iska matlab hai ke demand abhi bhi supply se zyada hai, chahay demand weak ho. Iska matlab hai ke demand mein growth ho sakti hai, aur unhone "real disposable income mein kami" ka zikar bhi kiya jo pehle ke comparison mein ek limiting factor nahi raha.
RBA ka tone labor market par bhi hawkish tha. Conditions abhi bhi "tight" hain, employment "strongly grow ho raha hai", aur cyclical measures jaise youth unemployment aur underemployment "ease ho chuke hain". Record participation ke bawajood, unhone yeh bhi kaha ke "vacancies abhi bhi high hain". Yeh woh zubaan nahi hai jo ek central bank rate cuts ke liye prepare kar raha ho, khaas taur par jab core inflation target se kaafi upar hai aur productivity growth uncertain hai.
Jab tak labor market strong hai, RBA yeh confident nahi ho sakta ke inflation sustainable tareeqay se target ke aas-paas aa jayega. Unhone kaha ke "monetary policy ka lagged effect, firms ke pricing decisions aur wages ka response kaafi uncertain hai, jab ke growth sluggish hai aur productivity results weak hain, is waqt jab demand excess hai aur labor market tight hai".
In uncertainties ke saath, aur core inflation ka 2.5% tak pohnchne ka expectation 2026 ke akhir tak, RBA ne dobara warn kiya ke wo inflation risks ke liye "vigilant" hai aur "kuch bhi rule in ya rule out nahi kar raha".

RBA ki Forecasts aur Future Rate Expectations:

RBA ki latest forecasts yeh indicate karte hain ke rates zyada der tak high rahenge. Yeh forecasts purani estimates ke muqablay mein slightly downward revision dikhati hain GDP growth aur core inflation mein, jabke unemployment mein thodi upward revision ki gayi hai. Yeh revisions zyada tar domestic rate valuations ke shift ko reflect karte hain jo pichlay 3 mahino mein dekhe gaye.

Yeh differences is baat ko dikhate hain ke cash rate zyada der tak high rehne ka expectation hai.