Gbp/ aud

GBP/AUD H1:

British Pound - Australian Dollar. Aap sab ko acha din aur bohot saari munafa ho! Jis waqt meri trading strategy Heiken Ashi, TMA, aur RSI indicators ka aik tajziati jama hua ho, woh waqt darust lag raha hai currency pair ya instrument bechne ka. System ke hamahang nishanat yeh dikhate hain ke bears ne wazeh tor par waqiyat ka rukh badal diya hai, jis se bechna is waqt pehli tijarat ban gayi hai. Heiken Ashi candles, jo ghrina keemat ke hawale se halqay banate hain, aitmaadil Japnai candles ki nisbat waqt par u-turn points, correction pullbacks, aur impulsive breakouts ka pehchan karne mein madadgar hote hain. Triangular Moving Average (TMA) linear channel indicator, jo Moveing Averages ke hawale se chart par mojooda support aur resistances ki lines draw karta hai, trading mein bhi aik umda support hai, jo asset ki movement ki maqbool hadood dikhata hai. Nishanat ko filter karne aur trade mein dakhul karnay ke akhri faislay ke liye, RSI oscillator ka istemal hota hai, jo traded pair ki overbought aur oversold zones ki waziha dete hain. Mere khayal mein, is tarah ki trading tools ka ikhtiyaar karte hue, technical analysis ka process aham tor par behtar hota hai, aur ghalati se market mein enter hone se bachne mein madad milti hai.





Toh, tajziati taqaati pair ki di gayi chart par situation aisi hai ke candles red ho gayi hain, jis se zahir hota hai ke bearish jazba abhi bullish jazba par ghalib hai. Isliye, market mein dakhul karne ka acha mauqa dhoondhna mumkin hai, short trade ke ikhtitam ke maqsad ke sath. Keemat ke hawale se linear channel ka upper boundary (neela dashed line) paar kar chuki hai, magar jab woh neechay HIGH point tak pohanchi toh usay phirs se upper line se takra gaya aur rukh badal kar central line ki taraf chala gaya (peela dashed line). Iske ilawa, dekha ja sakta hai ke RSI (14) indicator bhi sell signal ko tasdeeq karta hai, kyunke yeh short position ke ikhtiyar ke sath milta hai - yeh kaavaal abhi neeche ki taraf ishara karte hue hai aur oversold level se kaafi door hai. Upar di gayi ki buniyad par, mein yeh nateeja nikalta hoon ke bechne ki tawanai ka imkaan abhi bohot zyada hai, jo short trade kholne ko manzoor kar raha hai. Mujhe umeed hai ke take profit neeche ki boundary ke ird gird (neela dashed line) hoga jo ke keemat ke hawale se 1.92508 par hai. Order profit mein aane ke baad, behtareen hota hai ke position ko breakeven par laa kar rakha jaye, kyunke market hamari tawaqulat ko ghalati harkato ke zoray se mutasil karne ka rujhan rakhta hai.

GBPAUD pair ke liye chhota term hai jo Great British Pound aur Australian Dollar ka abbreviation hai. Great British Pound aur Japanese yen ke liye koi nickname nahi hai. Jab tak hum mufassil tafseelat mein nahi jaate, GBPAUD rate ka matlab kya hai? Exchange rate aapko batata hai ke ek Pound (base currency) kharidne ke liye kitne Australian dollars (quote currency) ki zaroorat hoti hai. Misal ke taur par, agar pair trading 1.86 par hai, to iska matlab hai ke 1.86 Australian dollars mein se 1 pound kharida ja sakta hai. Pound sterling, jise symbol (£), aur ISO code (GBP) se jaana jaata hai, common taur par pound ke naam se mashhoor hai aur kam taur par sterling ke tor par zikr hota hai. Yeh United Kingdom ka official currency hai. Mukaamal taur par tareeqon par, pound sterling kisi samay thos saltanat ya sone ya chandi se barkarar rupaya tha, lekin ab yeh fiat money hai, sirf intahai kam istemal mein liye jaane se hi sambhalta hai. Pound sterling dunya ka sab se purana paisa hai jo ek mulk mein istemal mein hai aur jiska istemal uske ibtida se lekar ab tak be-intiha istemal kiya gaya hai. Australian dollar ko commodities currency ke tor par jaana jaata hai Australia ke global sonay ki production aur export ki kirdar ki wajah se.

Australian dollar mein gold ke qeemat ke sath lamba faasla hai. British Pound vs. Australian Dollar. Iske izafi bade interest rates aur global malikana markets se taluq ke bais, Australian Dollar ko aksar risk currency kaha jata hai. Kuch factors GBPAUD rate ke qeemat par asar daal sakte hain, jinmein shamil hain: BOE & RBA Monetary Policies: Bank of England aur Reserve Bank of Australia market mein paisay ki supply ka control karte hain, taake ma'ashi haalat track par rahein. Dovish policy, jo expansionary policy ke tor par bhi jaani jaati hai, kisi bhi markazi bank se, un currencies ko kamzor banaati hai jo un se ta'alluq rakhne wale hote hain. Baraks, hawkish monetary policy (contractionary policy) currency ko mazboot banaati hai. GBPAUD exchange rate ko kai factors asar daal sakte hain. Ye supply aur demand ki dono currencies ke liye, ma'ashi sehat, siyasi mustaqilat dono mulkon mein, central bank monetary policy decisions, aur interest rates. Jazeera waza ki events bhi in do currencies ke beech rate ke ubhaar par asar daal sakte hain. Iske alawa, commodity ke qeemat mein tabadla (jaise ke oil) aur Brexit ke baray mein khabrain bhi GBPAUD exchange rate par asar daal sakti hain.

British Pound ke liye, taaza U.K. inflation data market par asar daalne ka imkaan hai aur yeh sabit karega ke Bank of England se aage guzarish karne par zyada interest darz kiya jaye ga. Australia se, anay wale Australian jobs data se umeed hai ke hum dekh sakte hain ke Reserve Bank of Australia is saal rate hike kis waqt de ya na de.
Umeed hai ke U.K. inflation read January mein core CPI data mein izafah 4.3% tak dikhaega, jabke Land Down Under hil nahin payega pichli 4.2% unemployment read se. Beshak, agar yeh dono ya to ek waaqiya asani se mushkilat ke saath suraj nikalta hai, phir humein oper darj upar ka news play milta hai, jo ke abhi tayyar kiya ja raha hai chart par.

Qeemat ka amal

Daily time frame par, market nay ek tight range mein qaim honey ka faisla kiya hai lambay arsay ke range ke andar, jis mein abhi 1.8950 - 1.9050 ke darmiyan bounce ho raha hai (270 saptahana average true range se zyada kassak). Isliye, umeed hai ke agar humein kisi ek bullish news outcome dekhne ko mile (mazboot U.K. inflation Australia ke jobs data ke muqablay mehfooz ho), ya phir bearish (Australia ke jobs data mehfooz ho U.K. inflation data kamzor), to consolidation breakout short-term/swing players ke liye dheyan dene wala hoga.

Lambay arsay ke players ke liye, abhi ek monetary policy divergence theme hai (BOE tightening mode mein jabke RBA fence par hai) jo mukhtalif trend ko taqat deti hai November 2021 se jab market 1.8100 ke aas paas trade kar raha tha. Aur agar is hafta ke data iss theme ke mutabiq hoti hai, to consolidation ke upside breakout se lambay arsay ke players ko vapis la ke uptrend ko jari rakne mein madad mil sakti hai.

Aur beshak, agar market gir jata hai bawajood GBP/AUD bullish news scenario ke hone par, to 1.8800 area (mazboot range support area) ek hai jo dekhne layak hai kyunke yeh aaj bhi lambay arsay ke players ko apne liye behtar keemat milne ki talash mein bulata hai.

Aam tor par, yeh woh higher probability setups hain jo dekhne layak hain, lekin humein agar low probability news scenario milta hai of weak U.K. inflation aur strong Aussie jobs data, to yeh dekha jaye ga ke matan se bad karke bhe profit taking hogi GBP/AUD uptrend holders se aur fresh shorts from traders.

Magar aap log kya sochte hain? Kya hum dekhne ko jaa rahe hain ek mazboot directional move GBP/AUD mein? Ya phir is haftay ke data choppiness ko barhane wale hain? Humain comment section mein batain!

GBP-AUD PAIR FORECAST

Price ke weak hone ka silsila shuru hua jab upward movement ko EMA 200 H1 ne Asian session mein block kar diya. Uske baad price ne 1.9001 par consolidate kiya. Seller ka pressure mazeed decline nahi kar saka, isliye price wapas turn hui aur strengthen kar gayi. Buyers ki push ne price ko EMA 200 H1 ke through le aayi, lekin yeh positive movement zyada der tak nahi chali. 1.9048 se seller ka pressure shuru hua aur price jo pehle positively move kar rahi thi, weak hone lagi, EMA 200 H1 ko break karte hue price 1.8968 ko touch kiya aur wahan se reject hui. Uske baad price thoda sa creep karke limited movement ke sath upar chali gayi. Abhi bhi price EMA 200 H1 ke neeche move kar rahi hai, aur EMA 12 aur EMA 36 ne ek downward cross form kiya hai apni position EMA 200 H1 ke neeche rakhte hue, jo ke bearish trend ko H1 time frame par re-validate karta hai. Thursday ke trading mein, sellers ko price movements dominate karte dekha gaya hai subah se. Market jo 1.8992 par open hui thi, neeche move karna shuru hui taake apni nearest support 1.8957 tak pohanch sake.



GBP-AUD Trading Plan H1

Buyers ke market ko dominate karne aur prices ko bullish phase mein lane mein naakaam hone se prices apne downtrend phase mein hi rahi. Yahan H1 time frame ke trading plan ki tafseel di gayi hai:

• Sell agar price support 1.8957 ko breakout karti hai, EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 downward move kar rahe hain, take profit 1.8927 – 1.8900 par.
• Sell pullback agar price EMA 633 H1 se reject hoti hai, take profit 1.9058 – 1.9010 par.
• Buy breakout ka plan hai agar price resistance 1.9027 ko breakout karti hai, price EMA 200 H1 ke upar move karti hai, EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 ka upward cross form hota hai, take profit 1.9083 - 1.9124 par.
• Buy pullback ek aur option ban sakti hai agar negative price movement 1.8718 area se reject hoti hai, bullish potential ke sath 1.8842 tak

Stoploss ko nearest support/resistance area se calculate kiya jayega order area ke mutabiq.

GBPAUD Pair Analysis

Pound Sterling currency pair ka outlook abhi bhi weak nazar aa raha hai jab se Bank of England (BoE) ne interest rates ko 25 bps se cut karke 5.00% kar diya hai, pehle 5.25% se. Iss wajah se GBPAUD pair price mein kaafi impulsive decline dekhne ko mila hai. Jab price ne resistance (R1) 1.9775 ko touch kiya, to correction ke baad pivot point (PP) 1.9671 ke aas paas consolidate kiya. Lekin fundamentals ki kami ke wajah se price ka upward rally fail ho gaya. Price movement ne support (S1) 1.9536 tak correction kiya aur abhi ke liye EMA 50 ke aas paas consolidate kar raha hai.

Agar price pattern structure ko dekha jaye, to major pattern abhi bhi higher high - higher low condition mein hai. Kyunki larger time frame jaise daily ko observe karte hain, to invalidation level support (S4) 1.8954 ke aas paas hai. Trend direction bullish confirm ho chuki hai, to current GBPAUD pair price ke liye wahan jaana mushkil lag raha hai. Lekin minor pattern mein break of structure dekhne ko mila hai kyunki price ne 1.9566 ke low prices ko cross kiya jab support (S1) 1.9536 ki taraf correction kiya. Short-term ya medium-term price movements mein correction hone ka kaafi zyada chance hai kyunki minor price pattern ab lower low - lower high condition mein hai.

Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ke perspective se dekha jaye to histogram already level ke neeche hai jo momentum downtrend indicate kar raha hai. Lekin volume histogram negative area mein abhi zyada wide nahi hai aur possibility hai ke histogram positive area mein wapas aa jaye. Yeh note karna zaroori hai ke bullish trend abhi bhi bahut strong hai kyunki dono Moving Average lines bohot door hain. Stochastic indicator ke parameters jo oversold zone mein 20 - 10 levels par cross kar rahe hain, GBPAUD pair price increase rally ko support karte hain. Lekin jab parameters jo abhi 20 aur 50 levels ke darmiyan hain, cross karte hain to iska matlab downward price correction ne selling saturation point validly nahi pohchaya.




Setup entry position:

Behtar trading options abhi bhi trend direction ko follow karte hain jo abhi bhi strong bullish condition mein hai, chahe minor price pattern structure lower low - lower high show kar raha hai. BUY entry position place karne ka wait karein jab price support (S2) 1.9432 tak correct ho jaye, taake yeh support (S1) 1.9536 se zyada safe ho. Stochastic indicator parameters ke oversold zone mein level 20 - 10 mein wapas cross hone par confirmation lein. AO indicator histogram positive area mein cross karein to uptrend momentum ko bullish trend direction ke mutabiq indicate karein. Take profit ka target pivot point (PP) 1.9671 ke aas paas aur stop loss minor support 1.9268 par place karein.