GBP/USD exchange rate ko UK interest rate cut ke potential aur Friday ki US jobs report ke bawajood pressure ka saamna karna par sakta hai. In ahem aur asar daari events se pehle, GBP/USD rate 1.2810 ke aas-paas hai, jo pichle do hafton mein sabse kam hai.
Economic calendar ke mutabiq, is hafte Bank of England ka faisla pound ke liye sabse zyada ahmiyat rakhta hai, aur market filhal 50/50 hai ke bank rate cut karega ya nahi. Yeh badhi hui uncertainty ka matlab hai ke markets outcome ke liye sensitive honge, aur is wajah se is hafte high volatility dekhne ko mil sakti hai.
Hamari general outlook is hafte ke liye near-term mein weakness hai kyunki traders potential volatility ke liye apne aap ko position kar rahe hain. Yeh caution GBP/USD weakness ko reflect kar sakti hai, aur 1.28 ki taraf pullback bhi ho sakta hai. Agar global equity markets struggle karte rahe, to yeh level tak pullback zyada mumkin hai; pichle hafte pound ko equity markets ke broad sell-off ke bawajood pressure ka saamna karna pada, jo yeh yaad dilata hai ke exchange rate broader sentiment se sensitive hai.
Financial markets filhal Thursday ko rate cut ka just over 50% chance price kar rahe hain. Pichle hafte sterling ki weakness isko reflect karti hai, aur ab rate cut ke odds 40% ke aas-paas hain. Market ne recent weeks mein sterling ke liye record long position build kiya hai, lekin is crowded positioning se disappointment ki surat mein deeper pullback ka khatara hai.
Lekin agar Bank rate cut nahi karti?
Yeh sterling ke liye kuch bullish relief provide kar sakta hai, jo week ke end tak bounce back kar sakta hai, khaaskar agar Friday ki US jobs report expectations se kam aati hai. Lekin GBP/USD rally limited hogi kyunki bank shayad September mein rate hike par "hold" kare. Oxford Economics ke analysts ne kaha ke “conditions MPC cut ke liye theek hain, lekin hum samajhte hain ke yeh markets ko surprise karne se bachne ke liye September tak wait karegi.” September rate cut ke liye strong commitment "dovish" stance banayegi, jo GBP rally ke sath itna consistent nahi hai. US dollar ke hawale se, Fed ki policy decision Wednesday ko aayegi. US interest rates mein koi change expect nahi kiya ja raha. Iske bajaye, ek dovish tone ki ummeed hai jo September mein pehli rate hike ke expectations ke sath align karti hai. Market ab fully priced in hai, iska matlab hai ke agar Fed September mein rate-cutting cycle ko launch karne par doubt cast karta hai to US dollar barhega. Hamari umeed hai ke Fed apni nai strategy continue karega jo yeh highlight karti hai ke interest rates ko lambi muddat ke liye hold karna labor market ke liye detrimental ho sakta hai.
Hum samajhte hain ke agar GBP/USD mein weakness aati hai to exchange rate 1.2760 ke area tak gir sakta hai. Yeh April-July rally ka 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ke sath consistent hai, aur 50-day moving average (DMA) (1.2780) ko bhi madde nazar rakhti hai. 50-day DMA ne June mein decline ko rok diya tha, jo ek baar phir uptrend ko confirm karta hai.
Economic calendar ke mutabiq, is hafte Bank of England ka faisla pound ke liye sabse zyada ahmiyat rakhta hai, aur market filhal 50/50 hai ke bank rate cut karega ya nahi. Yeh badhi hui uncertainty ka matlab hai ke markets outcome ke liye sensitive honge, aur is wajah se is hafte high volatility dekhne ko mil sakti hai.
Hamari general outlook is hafte ke liye near-term mein weakness hai kyunki traders potential volatility ke liye apne aap ko position kar rahe hain. Yeh caution GBP/USD weakness ko reflect kar sakti hai, aur 1.28 ki taraf pullback bhi ho sakta hai. Agar global equity markets struggle karte rahe, to yeh level tak pullback zyada mumkin hai; pichle hafte pound ko equity markets ke broad sell-off ke bawajood pressure ka saamna karna pada, jo yeh yaad dilata hai ke exchange rate broader sentiment se sensitive hai.
Financial markets filhal Thursday ko rate cut ka just over 50% chance price kar rahe hain. Pichle hafte sterling ki weakness isko reflect karti hai, aur ab rate cut ke odds 40% ke aas-paas hain. Market ne recent weeks mein sterling ke liye record long position build kiya hai, lekin is crowded positioning se disappointment ki surat mein deeper pullback ka khatara hai.
Lekin agar Bank rate cut nahi karti?
Yeh sterling ke liye kuch bullish relief provide kar sakta hai, jo week ke end tak bounce back kar sakta hai, khaaskar agar Friday ki US jobs report expectations se kam aati hai. Lekin GBP/USD rally limited hogi kyunki bank shayad September mein rate hike par "hold" kare. Oxford Economics ke analysts ne kaha ke “conditions MPC cut ke liye theek hain, lekin hum samajhte hain ke yeh markets ko surprise karne se bachne ke liye September tak wait karegi.” September rate cut ke liye strong commitment "dovish" stance banayegi, jo GBP rally ke sath itna consistent nahi hai. US dollar ke hawale se, Fed ki policy decision Wednesday ko aayegi. US interest rates mein koi change expect nahi kiya ja raha. Iske bajaye, ek dovish tone ki ummeed hai jo September mein pehli rate hike ke expectations ke sath align karti hai. Market ab fully priced in hai, iska matlab hai ke agar Fed September mein rate-cutting cycle ko launch karne par doubt cast karta hai to US dollar barhega. Hamari umeed hai ke Fed apni nai strategy continue karega jo yeh highlight karti hai ke interest rates ko lambi muddat ke liye hold karna labor market ke liye detrimental ho sakta hai.
Hum samajhte hain ke agar GBP/USD mein weakness aati hai to exchange rate 1.2760 ke area tak gir sakta hai. Yeh April-July rally ka 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ke sath consistent hai, aur 50-day moving average (DMA) (1.2780) ko bhi madde nazar rakhti hai. 50-day DMA ne June mein decline ko rok diya tha, jo ek baar phir uptrend ko confirm karta hai.