Audusd analysis

Juli 2024 ke shuru mein, AUD/USD market ne ek mazboot bulleesh rukh dikhaya, jab yeh 100-period simple moving average se upar chala gaya. Is upar ki taraf ka rukh is baat ki taraf ishara kar raha tha ke price 0.6800 ke sab se unche maheenay ke zone tak pohanch sakta hai. Lekin, mid-Juli mein rukh badal gaya jab bechne walon ne control hasil kiya, jo aage ki bulleesh movement ko rok diya. Chart ka tajziya karte hue, yeh nazar aata hai ke bearish rukh shayad somwaar ki raat tak jari rahe. Is waqt price 0.6640 ke zone ke around consolidate ho rahi hai, jo peechle raat ke market opening price se kam hai. Pichle do hafton mein dekhe gaye neeche ki taraf ke rukh ko dekhte hue, aisa lagta hai ke price is hafte aur bhi girne ka imkaan hai, jo ke overall bearish trend ko barqarar rakhega.

AUD/USD joray ne aaj 0.6646 ke zone se safar shuru kiya. 4-ghante ke chart par bechne walon ki dominance dikhai de rahi hai jo pichle hafte se price ko neeche ki taraf le ja rahi hai. Halankeh kuch koshishen hain jo price ko upar le jaane ke liye hui hain, magar bechne walay ab bhi neeche ki taraf ka rukh banaye hue hain. Haal ke bazaar ke rukh ko dekhte hue, yeh ummeed ki ja rahi hai ke downtrend is hafte bhi jari rahegi. Agar bechne walay price ko 0.6290 ke range tak le jaane mein kamiyab ho gaye, to agla bearish target 0.6260 ke price zone ke aas paas ho sakta hai. In khulasa, AUD/USD market ka Juli 2024 ka shuruati bulleesh trend mid-maheenay mein ek bearish trend mein badal gaya, jo ke abhi tak jari hai. Price 100-period simple moving average ke neeche sthir hai, jo ke bechne ki daad ikhanat ka ishara de raha hai. Is tarah, AUD/USD joray ne ek clear downtrend dikhaya hai, jahan bechne walay market par bhari hai. Dono currency pairs ka overall outlook bearish trend ki jari rehne ka hai, jismein aage ki girawat ke liye khaas price targets tay kiye gaye hain.

Yeh zaroori hai ke mukhtalif scenarios ke liye tayyari rakhi jaye, aur shuru mein prices halka sa niche aa sakti hain, lekin baad mein yeh hamare haq mein jani ki umeed hai. Ye taqreeb bhi khabar ke asar ko mad e nazar rakhti hai. AUD/USD ka joran is waqt 0.6740 ke multi-month peak ke aas paas hai, jabke traders US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report ka intezar kar rahe hain. Fed aur RBA ke darmiyan policy ka farq is joran ko support de raha hai. Australian dollar is waqt 0.6730 par trade kar raha hai. Daily chart ka jaiza lene se pata chalta hai ke ek rising wedge bana hua hai jo downside reversal ki sambhavna dikhata hai.

Jab humne us range se break kiya jisme hum itne din se trade kar rahe the, to humein kuch nahi badla. Unhoon ne apni growth jari rakhi aur local maxima update kia. Aur, bilkul, humare paas abhi bhi bohot si initiatives hain, lekin mere liye abhi koi foran maqasid nahi hain.

Kisi bhi surat mein, yeh dekhna zaroori hai ke dollar aage kaise trade karega, kyunke hum crucial signals ko milne wale hain. Mere khayal mein, haali ki price movements ne un sellers ko khatam kar diya jo 0.6654 ke neeche ka accumulation area mein AUD/USD bech rahe the, yeh soch kar ke is trading instrument ka price zarur niche jayega. Is wajah se price nahi gir gayi, balke behad tez tarakki kar gayi aur maxima ko update kiya. Agar mere guzashte khayalat sahi sabit hue, to is area mein is pair ko kharidne ka koi mauqa nahi milega, kyunki AUD/USD ke liye liquidity puri tarah se upar khatam ho sakti hai. Agar yeh aisa hota hai, to prices ko upar le jaana mein koi faida nahi hoga, kyunki aise haalat mein "puppeteer" ke liye kuch interesting nahi hoga, aur agar aisa hua, to hum achanak niche 0.6671 ke accumulation area ki taraf ja sakte hain.

Is liye, agar yeh is level ke upar consolidate kar leta hai, to yeh kharidne ka ek entry point bana sakta hai, aur bullish forces is pair ko upar ki taraf le jaate rahenge. Lekin agar bears initiative lete hain, to 0.6733 ke level ke neeche ek selling point tayyar ho sakta hai, aur iske baad bearish pressures niche ki taraf push karna shuru kar dega. Is tarah ek rollback ya correction ho sakti hai, uske baad buyers apne forces ko consolidate karenge. Daily chart dikhata hai ke aaj ek bullish candle bani hai, lekin yeh ab tak puri tarah se mazboot nahi hui, isliye situation abhi tak wazeh nahi hai, halankeh upward trend abhi bhi ek priority hai. Is situation mein meri taraf se ab tak kuch nahi badla, kyunki main abhi bhi sidelines par hoon.

AUD/USD Currency Pair ka Halat


AUD/USD currency pair, jo filhal 0.6631 par hai, ek bearish trend ka samna kar raha hai. Market ki harkatein dheere dheere ho rahi hain, lekin mujhe lagta hai ke agle kuch dinon mein yah significant movement ka samna kar sakta hai.

AUD/USD pair foreign exchange market mein sab se zyada actively traded currency pairs mein se ek hai, jo Australian dollar (AUD) aur US dollar (USD) ke darmiyan exchange rate ko darshata hai. Is pair ke movement par kai factors asar daaltein hain, jaise economic data releases, central bank policies, geopolitical events, aur market sentiment.
Mojooda Market Dynamics


1. Economic Data: GDP growth rates, employment figures, retail sales, aur inflation rates jaise economic indicators dono Australia aur America se AUD/USD pair ki qeemat tay karne mein ahmiyat rakhte hain. Haali mein, Australia ka economic data dheere chal raha hai, jo bearish sentiment ko barhata hai. Lekin agar koi achhi data release hoti hai to market ka rukh jaldi badal sakta hai.

2. Central Bank Policies: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) aur Federal Reserve (Fed) audit exchange rate par apni monetary policies ke zariye asar dalte hain. RBA ki dovish stance, jo ke kam interest rates mein zahir hoti hai, Australian dollar par neeche ki taraf pressure daal rahi hai. Dusse taraf, Fed ki monetary tightening, jo ke interest rate hikes ke zariye hoti hai, US dollar ko mazid mazboot kar rahi hai. In policies mein agar koi tabdeeliyan aati hain to AUD/USD pair mein significant movements dekhne ko mil sakte hain.

3. Commodity Prices: Australia kuch commodities jaise iron ore, coal, aur gold ka bada exporter hai. In commodities ki qeematein Australian dollar par seedha asar dalti hain. Haal hi mein, commodities ki qeematein global economic uncertainties ki wajah se volatile rahi hain, jo AUD/USD exchange rate ko asar daal raha hai. Agar commodity prices mein izafa hota hai to Australian dollar ko support mil sakta hai, jabke girawat is bearish trend ko barha sakti hai.

4. Geopolitical Events: Geopolitical tensions aur major economies ke darmiyan trade relations market sentiment ko asar karte hain aur isse AUD/USD exchange rate par asar padta hai. Australia ka China ke sath trade relationship, jo ke iske sab se bade trading partner hai, khaas ahmiyat rakhta hai. Is relationship mein koi bhi positive ya negative developments currency pair mein tezi se movement karwa sakti hain.
Technical Analysis


1. Support aur Resistance Levels: Key support aur resistance levels ko pehchanna potential price movements ka andaza lagane mein madadgar hai. Filhal, AUD/USD pair 0.6600 par ek critical support level ke ird gird hai. Agar yeh level toot jata hai, toh hum dekhenge ke yeh 0.6700 aur 0.6800 jese resistance levels ki taraf wapas jaane ki koshish karega. Lekin agar support level toot gaya, toh kami aur barh sakti hai.

2. Moving Averages: Moving averages trend direction jaanne mein madad karte hain. 50-day moving average (MA) aur 200-day MA aam tor par trend reversals ko pehchanne ke liye istemal kiye jate hain. AUD/USD pair dono moving averages ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jo ke bearish trend ko darshata hai. Crossover, jahan 50-day MA 200-day MA ke upar aa jata hai, potential reversal ka signal de sakta hai.

3. Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI ek momentum oscillator hai jo price movements ki speed aur change ko measure karta hai. Agar RSI reading 30 se neeche hai to iska matlab currency pair oversold hai, jabke 70 se upar hone par overbought conditions ko darshata hai. Filhal, AUD/USD pair ka RSI oversold territory ke kareeb hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke kisi bounce ki sambhavana ho sakti hai.
Market Sentiment


1. Risk Appetite: AUD/USD pair ko aam tor par global risk sentiment ka barometer samjha jata hai. Jab investors ka risk lene ka jazba barhta hai, toh Australian dollar mazboot hota hai. Iske muqabil, jab risk aversion hota hai, toh US dollar safe-haven currency ke tor par faida uthata hai. Market sentiment mein badlav ko monitor karna AUD/USD pair ke future direction ke liye ahem clues de sakta hai.

2. Speculative Positions: Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) currency futures market mein speculative positions ke baaray mein data release karti hai. Net long ya short positions ka analysis market sentiment ko samajhne mein madadgar hota hai. Agar short positions ka ilzam barhta hai toh yeh bearish sentiment ki nishani hai, jabke long positions ka izafa bullish expectations ko darshata hai.
Conclusion


Nateejan, jab ke AUD/USD pair filhal bearish trend mein hai aur dheere movement ka samna kar raha hai, kuch factors yeh darshate hain ke agle dinon mein significant movement aasakta hai. Economic data releases, central bank policies, commodity prices, aur geopolitical events currency pair ke rukh ko tay karne mein ahem kirdar ada karenge. Technical analysis aur market sentiment indicators bhi potential price movements ke liye valuable insights faraham karte hain.

Traders aur investors ko in factors ko nazar mein rakhna chahiye aur kisi bhi development par nazar rakhni chahiye jo AUD/USD pair mein substantial movement trigger kar sakti hai. Jaankar rahkar aur fundamental aur technical analysis ka istemal kar ke, market participants informed decisions le sakte hain aur AUD/USD market mein anticipated volatility ka faida utha sakte hain.

AUD/USD Analysis - 23 July 2024

4-ghante ki waqt ka parcham

AUD/USD market ki halat aur shiraat par nazar rakhne ke natayej wahi rahay hain, jo humne July 2024 ke shuruati trading doran dekha. Is waqt tak, market bullish rahi thi jab tak yeh 100-period simple moving average ke zone ko paar karne mein kamiab hogayi. Yeh bullish safar price ko maheenay ka sab se uncha area 0.6801 tak upar le jhata. Lekin, mahine ki darmiyani hisse mein entry karne par, market bechne walon ki taraf rujhan ikhtiyar kar gayi, jisse ooncha trend jari nahi reh saka.

Jab se humne chart ka jaiza liya, aisa lagta hai keh market ab bechne walon ki taraf rujhan kar rahi hai, jisse bullish trend ka jari rehna mushkil ho gaya. Jab journal ko update kiya gaya tha, price 0.6641 zone ke aas-paas mukammal ho rahi thi, yeh abhi bhi us price zone se neeche hai jo bazar ki raat ko khula tha. Pichle do hafton ke dauran price ki rukh ke mansoobah bandi karte hue, aisa lagta hai keh iss hafta price ki kami ki mauqa mil sakti hai, jo candlestick position ko Downtrend safar mein madadfar sabit kar sakti hai.

Aaj subha GBP/USD jora 0.6645 zone se apna safar shuru kar raha hai, aur 4-ghante ke waqt par yeh bechne walon ki dominance ko saaf dikhata hai jo pichle haftay se price ko neeche le jata hai. Halankeh price ko ooncha karne ki koshish ki jati hai, lekin bechne wale agle downtrend ki umeed ko barqarar rakh sakte hain. Agar hum pichle kuch dinon ke market trend ka jaiza lein to yeh downtrend ki taraf rujhan karke chali gayi hai, aisa lagta hai keh is haftay price ab bhi bearish safar ka intezar kar rahi hai. Mera andaza hai keh is haftay price ko bearish taraf jari rakhne ka mauqa hai. Agar bechne wala price ko 0.6292 tak neecha karne mein kamiab hota hai, to agle bearish safar ka maqsad 0.6261 price zone ho sakta hai.

Transaction Options:

• Sell karna 0.6291 area par, Take Profit: 0.6262, Stop Loss: 0.6319

AUD/USD Chart: