Gbp usd

GBP/USD Ki Bunyadi (Fundamental) Soorat-e-Haal

Pichle haftay, Bank of England ne apni benchmark interest rates ko 25 basis points kam kar diya, jis ne pound par asar dalte hue usay US dollar ke muqable mein 1.27 par la diya. Lekin, US non-farm payrolls data mein ghair mutawaqqa kami ke baad, pound ne US dollar ke muqable mein wapas se rebound kiya aur Friday ko 1.2801 par band hua.

Economic data ke lehaz se, July ke liye UK manufacturing industry ka final value 52.1 raha, jo ke expected value aur pehle ke value 51.8 se zyada tha, aur yeh pichle teen maheenon se boom-bust line ke upar hai. Bank of England ne 2024 mein GDP growth ka tajaweez 1.25% rakha hai, jo ke May ke 0.5% forecast se zyada hai. UK ki zyada stable siyasi soorat-e-haal bhi pound ko support kar sakti hai.

Monetary policy ke hawale se, Bank of England ne 25 basis points ka interest rate cut 5-4 vote ke sath decide kiya. Bank of England ke Governor Bailey ne mustaqbil ke interest rate cuts par ehtiyaat ka izhar kiya, aur kaha ke zaroori hai ke inflation ko kam rakha jaye aur interest rates ko zyada jaldi ya zyada nahin kam kiya jaye. UK mein core inflation abhi bhi 3.5% hai aur services ki prices inflation bhi zaahir hai, isliye Bank of England zyada hawkish stance rakhsakti hai.

GBP/USD Ki Technical Soorat-e-Haal

Technical perspective se dekha jaye to, GBP/USD pair ne pichle haftay 1.28 se neeche girne ke baad tez rebound kiya. Upar ki position 1.29 ke aas paas expected hai. Agar yeh level break hota hai, to further upside potential bhi ho sakta hai.

Technical Analysis of Foreign Exchange GBP/USD


The pound gir gaya $1.2710 tak, jo ke apne ek mahine ke lowest level ke qareeb hai, kyunke investors Bank of England se tez rate cuts ki umeed kar rahe hain. Ye girawat United States mein recession ke khauf ke darmiyan aayi hai, jis ne British government bond yields ko bhi multi-month lows tak gira diya. Ab markets expect kar rahe hain ke December tak Bank of England se ek quarter-point rate cut hoga.

Monday ko, interest rate futures ne is saal ke liye total 56 basis points cuts ka ishara diya, jo ke Friday ko expected 47 basis points se zyada hai. Iske ilawa, two-year government bonds ki yield, jo ke borrowing costs ke changes ko reflect karti hai, 8 basis points se gir kar 3.526% tak pohanch gayi, jo ke April 2023 ke baad se lowest hai. Last week, Bank of England ne apna benchmark interest rate 16 saal ke high 5.25% se cut kar ke 5.0% kar diya, jo ke 2020 ke baad pehli cut thi.

UK ke 10-year bond ki yield bhi six-month low tak gir gayi. UK ke 10-year bond ki yield 3.8% se neeche gir gayi, jo ke six months ke lowest level pe hai, kyunke investors zyada bet kar rahe hain ke Bank of England further rate cuts implement karega United States ke potential recession concerns ke response mein. Ab markets December tak quarter-point rate cut price kar rahe hain, aur futures 56 basis point cut ka ishara kar rahe hain year ke end tak, jo ke Friday ke 47 basis points se zyada hai.

Last week, Bank of England ne interest rates ko 25 basis points se cut kar ke 5% kar diya, jo ke 16 saal ke high 5.25% se pehli cut thi 2020 ke baad. Is dauran, UK ke naye chancellor of the exchequer ne ek series of public spending cuts announce kiye aur strongly hint kiya ke autumn budget mein tax increases honge taake £22 billion funding gap ka kuch hissa offset kiya ja sake.

Market Sentiment aur Outlook

US stock market mein continued volatility ek mix of economic data, geopolitical concerns aur investor sentiment ke wajah se hai. Morning mein sharp drop ke baad partial recovery aur phir ek aur decline suggest karta hai ke market mixed signals ke darmiyan direction find karne mein struggle kar raha hai. Investors various factors se grapple kar rahe hain, including Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance, inflationary pressures aur potential economic slowdown. Overall, technology sector, jo ke pehle market gains ka major driver tha, ab clear sell-off dekh raha hai, jo broader market instability mein contribute kar raha hai.




GBP/USD forecast aaj:

Daily chart pe performance ke mutabiq, GBP/USD price ka downward path mazid strong ho raha hai, aur jaise ke maine pehle mention kiya tha, 1.2700 level ke aas paas aur neeche move karna bears ki control ko strengthen karega trend pe, aur is tarah se stronger losses ke liye prepare karega, aur agla sabse important support 1.2580 hoga. Dusri taraf, aur isi period ke darmiyan, psychological resistance 1.3000 sabse important rahega general trend ko upward turn karne ke liye.

GBP/USD ANALYSIS 06 AUGUST 2024

Hafte ke early trading period mein, GbpUsd market bearish tha, price ne ek downward journey experience ki aur kal raat ke close par ek bearish candlestick form hui. Aisa lagta hai ke market ne kal raat seller se appreciation receive kiya jisse price abhi bhi Downtrend side par chal rahi hai, ab candlestick thoda upar uthi hai. Agar main kuch hafton pehle ki trading situation dekhu, to yeh observe kiya gaya ke seller abhi bhi market ko control karne ki koshish kar raha tha, price 1.2706 position tak neeche aa sakti thi. Agar hum pichle hafte ke market ka journey monitor karein, to lagta hai ke trend seller ne control kiya hua tha, pichle hafte ke trading period tak price abhi bhi aur neeche gir sakti thi. Graph se monitoring karne par dikhayi diya ke market mein pichle hafte ke end par ek bullish correction hua jo candlestick ko upar utha sakta tha. Abhi ke situation se lagta hai ke candlestick abhi bhi neeche move karne ki koshish kar rahi hai aur simple moving average zone of period 100 ko chhod kar neeche girne ki koshish kar rahi hai, to yeh situation Downtrend side ke journey ke liye supporting factor ho sakti hai. Seller ki success jo buyers ki koshish ko higher zone par price ko raise karne mein nakam kar rahi hai, lagta hai ke is hafte candlestick ko dobara neeche utarne ki koshish ho rahi hai, ek chance hai ke price 1.2501 zone ki taraf jaa rahi hai.

Trading recommendations: SELL (4 Hour Chart)

Position opening strategy:

GbpUsd market ke upar wale explanation se, mujhe lagta hai ke price Downtrend side ki taraf move karne ki possibility continue karegi. Candlestick 100-period simple moving average zone se aur neeche gir chuki hai, mere khayal se yeh indication hai ke market ke paas bearish run continue karne ka zyada chance hai. Personally, mujhe ummed hai ke market dobara neeche jayegi aur target area ki taraf move karegi. Aise opportunities ke sath, Sell position par focus karna comfortable ho sakta hai based on technical analysis results.

Technical analysis ke results ke base par, mere khayal se 1.2772 price point ideal position hai Sell Position open karne ke liye, jabke 1.2734 area bearish target hai aur stoploss trading position se kareeb 32 pips par rakha jaye. Assuming ke trend gradual price decline experience karega bearish target ki taraf, yeh profit banane ka ek opportunity deta hai, of course market conditions ke mutabiq adjust karke.