gbp/ usd

**GBP/USD M30 Chart**

GBP/USD currency pair ek aur upward movement ke liye tayar nazar aa raha hai, jo shayad 1.3366 par reversal level tak pahunche aur ho sakta hai ke ascending hourly channel ki upper boundary ko bhi test kare. Bollinger Bands upar ki taraf hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke price naye highs tak pahunchegi pehle kisi corrective pullback ke. Market ka direction Monday ya Tuesday tak zyada wazeh ho jana chahiye, aur Tuesday ko agar koi zyada precise signals milte hain, toh yeh confirm kar sakte hain ke market naye peaks tak pahunchegi ya pehle corrective decline dekhegi. 1.2749 ka level ahmiyat rakh sakta hai, kyun ke yeh ek technical gap se juda hai jo abhi tak fill nahi hua. Upar ke targets ke liye, 1.3399 ka level radar par hai, lekin is level tak pahunchnay se pehle correction ka intezar karna behtar hoga. Price abhi bhi ek ascending channel ke andar hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke upward momentum jaari reh sakta hai. Currency pair ne direction badli hai aur ab upar ki taraf move kar raha hai. Halankeh yeh abhi tak upper boundary tak nahi pahuncha, lekin optimistic signs hain ke yeh aage badhega, agla target channel ki upper limit ke aas-paas 1.3343 hai.

---

GBP/USD pair ne Monday ko phir se upar ki taraf chadhai ki, naye local high tak pahunche. Euro ki tarah, din ki shuruat ek decline ke sath hui jo UK mein macroeconomic data release se ek ghanta pehle shuru hui. British pound ne samajhdaari se girawat dekhi jab services aur manufacturing sectors ke business activity indices umeed se kam rahe. Lekin iske baad ek aur be-buniyad growth ka wave aya. Agar abhi bhi kuch traders hain jo current movement ki illogical nature par yaqeen nahi karte, toh Monday is baat ka ek wazeh misaal hai ke pound kaise barh raha hai. UK mein kamzor data aane par pound 65 pips gira. Phir yeh bina kisi wajah ke 80 pips upar chala gaya aur US business activity indices ke kuch behtar nahi hone par 30 pips aur gira.

Is tarah, traders current upward movement ka faida "bare" technical analysis ya doosri trading systems aur indicators ke zariye utha sakte hain, lekin iska matlab yeh nahi hai ke yeh movement logical ya reasonable hai. Isliye, hume kisi ko bhi ab pound kharidne ka mashwara dena mushkil hai, halankeh yeh barhta ja raha hai. British currency lambay arse tak momentum se barh sakti hai. Agar market pair bechne ki sambhavna tak ka soch nahi rahi, toh unhein agle mahine ya do mahine tak kharidne se koi nahi rok sakta. Hum expect karte hain ke relentless buying agle mahine ke andar khatam ho jayegi kyun ke Federal Reserve ne key rate ghataana shuru kar diya hai. Market ne is event ko do saal pehle se price in karna shuru kar diya tha.

**Evaluation of GBP/USD Price Dynamics**

Jaisa ke dekha gaya hai, GBP/USD currency pair ko haal hi mein kai mushkilat ka samna karna pada hai, jo United Kingdom aur United States se aane wale mukhtalif economic data ki wajah se hai. Pichli hafte, pound ne 1.3427 level par resistance ke khilaf struggle kiya, jo UK ki kamzor economic outlook ko darshata hai. UK se aane wale negative data releases ne pound ki position ko aur bhi kamzor kar diya. Lekin, US dollar bhi pressure mein hai, kyunki aane wale economic reports ka silsila hai jo ki weaker-than-expected performance dikhane ki umeed hai. Is wajah se pair ko tezi se girne se roka gaya hai, kyunki dollar ke khilaf negative sentiment pound ko kuch support de raha hai. Aaj ke economic reports kaafi ahmiyat rakhte hain, jismein US dollar ke liye high aur medium-impact releases hain. Forecasts suggest karte hain ke naya result negative hoga, jo pound ke liye faida mand ho sakta hai kyunki is se selling pressure kam ho sakta hai. Halankeh British pound din ki shuruaat kharab UK data ki wajah se karta hai, lekin US dollar ki umeed ki ja rahi kamzori pair ko stabilize karne mein madadgar ho sakti hai. Kul mila kar, jabke pound abhi bhi pressure mein hai, global market sentiment aur weaker US economic indicators jaise external factors buffer ka kaam kar sakte hain, jo ke agle doran tezi se girne se roke rakhte hain.

---

GBP/USD pair ne pichle hafte ke shuru hone se bullish trend dikhaya hai, jo pichle bearish market ko reverse karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Jabke pair ne pichli hafte 1.3400 area tak pahunch gaya, lekin movement uncha upar nahi ja saka kyunki trading activity kaafi kam thi. Trend abhi bhi bullish movements ka samna kar raha hai aur 1.3420 ke resistance area ko test kar raha hai. Jabke market abhi hafte ke shuruat par hai, trend abhi bhi correction ya sideways phase mein hai. Chart buyers ke dominance ko darshata hai, jo ke indicate karta hai ke upward trend shayad jaari rahega. Price ka pehle wale resistance se breakout hona aur ab 1.3270 par naya support banana buyers ki positive momentum ki taqat ko darshata hai. Filhal ki price pichle hafte ke market opening se unchi hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke upward trend abhi bhi mazboot hai. In sab factors ka milan bullish trend ke lambi muddat tak jaari rehne ki sambhavna ko darshata hai. Relative Strength Index ne pehle upward direction ko confirm kiya, jo yeh darshata hai ke bullish trend abhi bhi jaari rehne ki sambhavna rakhta hai. Lekin, price signal ab ek aise market zone mein hai jo ke non-drastic decline ke sath correct ho raha hai, jo market ke aage barhne aur unchi prices ki sambhavna ko barhata hai. Halankeh trend indication jaari rehne ki sambhavna hai, lekin market direction mein mumkinah tabdeelon ka intezar karte hue vigilance zaroori hai.

**Trading Strategy with GBP/USD Prices**

Hamara jo abhi focus hai, wo GBP/USD currency pair ke price action ka tajziya karna hai. Is waqt, GBP/USD currency pair impulsively trade kar rahi hai. Ek price correction expected hai, jisme 1.265 ka intermediate range ek accha buying opportunity faraham kar raha hai zyada attractive prices par. Agar ye scenario develop hota hai, toh profit-taking ka target agla maximum 1.273 par hoga, aur ek protective order ko critical level par set kiya jayega. Iske ilawa, long position ke liye entry point us waqt likely hogi jab currency 1.273 ke maximum ko cross karaygi aur stabilize ho gi, jo market ko PPD par signal dega. Is scenario mein profit target agla maximum 1.279 hoga. Lekin, agar pair 1.262 ke critical range se neeche girta hai, toh is se downward trend ke hawale se priorities ka shift zahir hoga.

Pichle trading week ke natayej ne GBP/USD ke bulls ko khushi di. Do bade jumps ke sath—pehla Wednesday ko jab US dollar ke liye negative news ayi aur doosra Friday ko—bears ne 28th figure ke aghaz tak pohanch liya, aur 1.2811 ke resistance ko test kiya. Mera khayal hai ke ye end nahi hai. Monday aksar Friday ke trends ko reverse karta hai, khaaskar jab four-hour stochastic overbought conditions indicate kar raha hai, is liye mein expect karta hoon ke GBP/USD pair ke liye week ke aghaz mein bearish correction hoga. Lekin, agar bears ke paas fundamental support nahi hota, toh ye decline chhota ho ga, aur shaayad sirf support area 1.2771 tak, uske baad growth dobara shuru ho gi. Ek correction zaroori hai taake is currency pair ki overbought conditions ko balance kiya ja sake. Abhi ke waqt mein GBP/USD quotes meri tamaam technical indicators ke oopar trade kar rahe hain four-hour chart par, jo active buying ko zahir karta hai aur further growth ka indication de raha hai. Target hai ke 28th figure ke beech mein pohanchna aur is saal June 13 ka high update karna.

Budh ke din, British pound khud ko aik ajeeb maqam mein paaya. Jabke retail sales data aur PMI report mein behtar hone ki khabrein thi aur economic growth ki jari rahi, pound US dollar ke mukablay mein zyada tar currencies ke khilaaf kam reh gaya, Euro ke ilawa. Yeh baat Office for National Statistics (ONS) ke May ke strong retail sales figures jaari hone ke baad aayi. Bechne ki miqdaar mein 2.9% taaqatwar izafa hua, jabke ummeed thi ke 1.5% ke qareeb ho ga. Saal bhar mein bhi retail sales ne tawaqoat ko nakaara, analysts ne 0.9% ki kami ka paish-e-nazar rakha tha, lekin 1.3% izafa ho gaya. Consumer spending ka yeh izafa, jo keh maeeshat ki growth ka aham factor hai, aam tor par musbat khabar samjha jata hai. Lekin yeh bhi Bank of England (BOE) ke liye aik potential masla paida kar sakta hai, jo keh primarily price stability ko barqarar rakhne par tawajjo deti hai. Consumer spending mein izafa aksar inflation ko barhne ka sabab ban sakta hai, jise BOE interest rates ke zariye control karna chahti hai.

Is mazeed complexity mein, aik alag report ne overall economic activity mein halki kamzori ki nishandahi ki. Jabke composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) 51.7 par gir gaya, jo keh expansion aur contraction ko alag karne wale 50.0 threshold se upar tha. Economists ne is mein 53.1 ke qareeb izafa ki umeed rakhi thi. Report ne PMI ki girawat ko Services sector mein rukawat ke taur par explain kiya. Lekin Manufacturing PMI as expected behtar aaya, estimates aur previous month ke figures se zyada. Analysts ke mutabiq services mein yeh rukawat post-election uncertainty ke zariye ho sakti hai, jahan businesses new government policies tak faislay ko taal sakte hain.

In reports ke milne se, pound US dollar ke mukablay mein 1.2670 aur 1.2700 ke darmiyan ek tang range mein ghoom raha hai. Jabke economic growth track par nazar aati hai, lekin Bank of England ko inflation ko control karte hue economic activity ko bhi support karna hai. Pound ki future direction aur BOE ke monetary policy decisions abhi tak samne nahi aaye hain.

GBP/USD Pair Review

Pound sterling ka price Thursday ko $1.27 par qaim raha, jo ke teen hafton ke sabse oonchay level ke qareeb tha, jab England, Scotland, Wales aur Northern Ireland mein parliamentary elections ke liye votes daalay gaye. Centre-left Labor Party opinion polls mein aage thi, aur mumkin hai ke yeh British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak ki Conservative Party ko gira de. Kuch andazay yeh bhi hain ke Labor Party ko aksariyat milne ka imkaan hai, jo ke 2005 ke baad general elections mein unka pehla fatah hoga. US jobs numbers ka elan honay se pehle GBP/USD ka price resistance level 1.2780 ke qareeb stable tha.

Kuch analysts ka kehna hai ke yeh siyasi tabdeeli pound sterling, stock market, aur Britain mein investments par acha asar daal sakti hai, aur Britain ki "safe haven" ke tor par shohrat ko bahal kar sakti hai, jab ke doosray ilaqay siyasi uncertainty ka shikar hain. Monetary policy ke hawalay se, investors yeh tawaqqa kar rahe hain ke August mein Bank of England ke faida ke rates mein cut hoga, jab ke inflation central bank ke 2% target tak gir chuki hai.

Trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year bond yield apni recent highs se neeche hai, aur sab ki nazarain elections par hain. British government bonds par 10-year yield Thursday ko takreeban 4.18% thi, jo ke Monday ko chhuti 4.28% se kam thi, jab England, Scotland, Wales aur Northern Ireland mein elections ho rahe thay. Labour Party opinion polls mein aage hai aur Conservative Party ko girane ka imkaan hai, jise Prime Minister Rishi Sunak lead kar rahe hain.

Forex market trading ke mutabiq, British pound ne 2024 ke general election mein achi performance dikhai hai, lekin 10pm par exit poll ke elan ke waqt kuch volatility aasakti hai. Exit poll Thursday raat ko 10pm par ek bara waqt hoga kyun ke yeh ziada tar accurate andaza deta hai ke agla Prime Minister kaun hoga aur uska control kitna mazboot hoga. Base case ke tor par, agar Keir Starmer ki Labour Party ko bari jeet milti hai, to hum expect karte hain ke pound mein izafa hoga jab yeh natija confirm ho jata hai.

Currencies ko certainty pasand hoti hai, aur ek bari Labour jeet sterling exchange rates mein baqi rahne wale risk premium ko khatam kar degi, chahe yeh kitna bhi chhota ho. Barclays Bank ke mutabiq, “British general elections is haftay ka main focus hain, aur ziada tar plausible scenarios, jo ke available opinion polls ke mutabiq hain, pound ki mazeed taqat ko stimulate karte hain.” Is leehaz se, Barclays pound ko euro ke against buy kar raha hai, jo ke French election ke natije ke baad limited recovery dikhayega.

Latest large-scale YouGov poll ke mutabiq, Conservatives sirf 102 MPs tak ghatte nazar aate hain, jo ke party ne pichlay 5 saal mein jeeti hui seats ka 70% kho dene ka matlab hai, aur Labour ko 1832 ke baad se apni sabse bari aksariyat milegi. Deutsche Bank ke Gopal ka andaza hai ke agar Labour achi performance dikhati hai, to pound ki rate ziada tabdeel nahi hogi, aur “EUR/GBP ka risk premium zyada rates par mabni rahega.”

Lekin agar Conservatives opinion polls se behtar karti hain, to yeh sterling ke liye tail risk ho sakta hai, jo ke mumkin hai kyun ke kai voters ab tak faisla nahi kar paye. Agar hung parliament hota hai – jisme koi party aksariyat nahi jeetti – to yeh uncertainty peda karega, jis se sterling kamzor hosakta hai. Yeh sochte hue, pound-euro exchange rate 1.18 se neeche gir sakta hai. Agar French election bhi hung legislature ka natija deta hai, to phir 1.1750 aur 1.17 ke midpoints tak ka rasta saaf hoga. Issi waqt, GBP/USD exchange rate wapas 1.27 tak gir sakti hai, lekin hum samajhte hain ke US ka jobs report Friday ko final asar dalega.

Sterling Dollar ka aaj ka forecast:

Aaj ke US jobs numbers ka reaction GBP/USD ke liye is haftay ke trading ka closing price tay karega, jo ke ek bullish weekly close ke qareeb hai. Jaise pehle zikar kiya, resistance 1.2775 bulls ke control mein wapas anay ke liye sabse important station hai, aur daily chart ke performance ke mutabiq, price resistance levels 1.2830 aur 1.2900 tak pohonch sakti hai. Doosri taraf, agar price wapas 1.2660 ke support area tak jati hai, to yeh upward rebound ke liye khatra hai.

**Trading Strategy with GBP/USD Prices**

Hamara jo abhi focus hai, wo GBP/USD currency pair ke price action ka tajziya karna hai. Is waqt, GBP/USD currency pair impulsively trade kar rahi hai. Ek price correction expected hai, jisme 1.265 ka intermediate range ek accha buying opportunity faraham kar raha hai zyada attractive prices par. Agar ye scenario develop hota hai, toh profit-taking ka target agla maximum 1.273 par hoga, aur ek protective order ko critical level par set kiya jayega. Iske ilawa, long position ke liye entry point us waqt likely hogi jab currency 1.273 ke maximum ko cross karaygi aur stabilize ho gi, jo market ko PPD par signal dega. Is scenario mein profit target agla maximum 1.279 hoga. Lekin, agar pair 1.262 ke critical range se neeche girta hai, toh is se downward trend ke hawale se priorities ka shift zahir hoga.

Pichle trading week ke natayej ne GBP/USD ke bulls ko khushi di. Do bade jumps ke sath—pehla Wednesday ko jab US dollar ke liye negative news ayi aur doosra Friday ko—bears ne 28th figure ke aghaz tak pohanch liya, aur 1.2811 ke resistance ko test kiya. Mera khayal hai ke ye end nahi hai. Monday aksar Friday ke trends ko reverse karta hai, khaaskar jab four-hour stochastic overbought conditions indicate kar raha hai, is liye mein expect karta hoon ke GBP/USD pair ke liye week ke aghaz mein bearish correction hoga. Lekin, agar bears ke paas fundamental support nahi hota, toh ye decline chhota ho ga, aur shaayad sirf support area 1.2771 tak, uske baad growth dobara shuru ho gi. Ek correction zaroori hai taake is currency pair ki overbought conditions ko balance kiya ja sake. Abhi ke waqt mein GBP/USD quotes meri tamaam technical indicators ke oopar trade kar rahe hain four-hour chart par, jo active buying ko zahir karta hai aur further growth ka indication de raha hai. Target hai ke 28th figure ke beech mein pohanchna aur is saal June 13 ka high update karna.