usd/jpy

USDJPY mein aik bohat bara movement tha. Kal currency pair ne apni taqat barqarar rakhi aur tezi se izafa kiya. Maine hisaab lagaya hai ke USDJPY kareeban 90 pips buland hua hai. Is izafe ke natijay mein resistance ab 159.91 par hai. Is se trading ke ibtedai dour mein position buland khuli hai. Magar afsos ke 159.91 ki resistance area mein koi pullback nahi hua. Chahe ke candle supply area mein aa gaya ho, lekin USDJPY abhi bhi rukh badalna nahi chahta.

Agar hum H1 timeframe se tafteesh karen to, qareebi resistance ko paar kar ke USDJPY foran 160.83 ke qeemat par pohanch gaya. Shayad baad az izafi tezi se USDJPY pehle correction karay. Masla yeh hai ke aaj subah USDJPY mein thora sa kamzori mehsoos ho rahi hai. Ab USDJPY ki position khud 160.64 ke qeemat par hai. Maine ye guftagu kiya hai ke USDJPY pehle 159.94 ke qeemat tak giray ga. Masla yeh hai ke yahan RBS pattern banne ki mumkinat hain. Agar yeh pattern toot jaye to, USDJPY mazeed gir sakta hai. Jabkeh agar isay paar kiya jaye to, USDJPY mazeed girne ki taraf ja sakta hai. Ye dekhte hue ke izafi bohat buland hua hai, mujhe lagta hai ke girne ki sambhavnaen zyada hain.

Agar hum Ichimoku indicator se tajzia karen to, candle abhi tak tenkan sen aur kijun sen lines ke ooper hai. Iska matlab hai ke USDJPY trend abhi bhi strong bullish hai. Ye indicator batata hai ke mazeed ooper jaane ki mumkinat mojood hain. Magar mein ek naye crossover ka intezar prefer karta hoon kyunke mujhe girne ke chance zyada lagte hain. Is ke ilawa, ab USDJPY thora sa kamzor hona shuru ho gaya hai.

Intehai, stochastic indicator ke mutabiq abhi USDJPY ki halat overbought hai. Iska saboot hai line jo 80 level ko chhu chuki hai. Iska matlab hai ke USDJPY mazeed girne ke liye tayyar hai. Line ne neeche ki taraf rukh kar liya hai, jis se girawat shuru hone ko tayyar hai. Iska matlab hai ke jo mein ne pehle kaha hai woh sahi hai ke resistance ko paar karne ke baad girawat aam tor par hoti hai.

To aaj ki tajziya ki mukhtasar guftagu ka natija ye hai ke USDJPY ke girne ki sambhavnaen hain kyunke stochastic indicator dikhata hai ke halat overbought hain. Shayad USDJPY jald gir jaye. Is ke ilawa, jab se candle ne resistance ko paar kiya hai, koi correction nahi hua hai. Is liye mein apne dosto ko mashwarah doonga ke is pair mein sirf short positions par tawajjo dein. Maqsad aam tor par sab se qareebi support par rakha ja sakta hai jo 159.27 ke qeemat par hai.

USD/JPY wapas aa sakta hai agar qeemat daily high ke qareeb jam nahi pati. Bechare hone se pehle yaqeeni banayein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke neeche hai aur bas is se girna shuru ho raha hai.

Skenario No. 2. Mein aaj bhi USD/JPY ko bechnay ka irada rakhta hoon agar do mukhtalif martabon par qeemat 159.94 par test ho aur MACD indicator overbought area mein ho. Ye pair ke ooperi potential ko had tak mehdood karega aur ek market ka ulta chakkar hone ka imkan paida karega. Aap girawat ko ummed kar sakte hain jo 159.62 aur 159.05 ke mukhtalif darajo tak ja sakti hai.

Abhi hum USD/JPY currency pair ke price movement analysis par focus kar rahe hain. Japanese yen ne recent mein significant upward movement dikhaya hai, jis se buyers thak gaye hain aur pair ko aur zyada push nahi kar pa rahe. Medium-term mein ek corrective decline ka chance kaafi substantial lag raha hai.

Hourly chart par ek clear horizontal resistance 159.81 par dekhi ja sakti hai, aur 160.01 ke psychological barrier ke paas buyers hesitate kar rahe hain. Yeh aur ek descending mid-term trend line ne ek converging triangle banaya hai. Agar price 159.51 ke neeche breakout karke stabilize ho jaye, to sustained decline ke liye yeh crucial hoga aur ek sell opportunity signal karega. Yen ka outlook uncertain hai, aur yeh kaafi hat tak market ke reaction par depend karta hai recent high 159.91 ke response par. Agar yeh resistance hold karta hai aur USD/JPY pair downward reverse hota hai, to pair bearish pullback shuru kar sakta hai lower boundary of the first zone 157.57 ki taraf, aur yeh support break karke 155th figure ke ascending fan ke lower edge tak bhi ja sakta hai.
Dusri taraf, agar resistance hold nahi karta aur bulls 159.61 ke level ke upar position secure karte hain, to yen ka price next target 161.66 ya usse thoda upar tak bhi rise kar sakta hai. Lower time frames indicate karte hain ke bears ke paas kuch potential hai southern pullback ko extend karne ka. Lekin situation precarious hai, aur agar bulls USD/JPY price ko 159.61 ke upar maintain karte hain, to yesterday's high ko surpass karna kaafi likely lagta hai.

Buyers ne pair ko bullish direction mein drive kiya hai, lekin ab corrective decline ka probability significant hai. Hourly chart clearly show karta hai ek horizontal resistance 159.81 par, near psychological level 160.01, jahan buyers avoid kar rahe hain. Yeh resistance aur ek sloping mid-term line milkar ek converging triangle banate hain. Sustained fall ke liye 159.51 ke neeche break aur solidify hona zaroori hai, jo sell position signal karega. Yen ka picture clear nahi hai, kyunke yeh kaafi hat tak market ke response par depend karta hai last high 159.91 ke reaction par.

Is analysis se humein yeh samajh aata hai ke market dynamics kaafi complex hain, aur current levels par trading karte waqt kaafi caution ki zaroorat hai. Buyers ne ab tak pair ko bullish trend mein rakha hai, lekin ab decline ka chance substantial hai. Agar price 159.51 ke neeche break karti hai, to yeh bearish movement ko support karegi. Agar bulls 159.61 ke upar price maintain karte hain, to upward movement ka potential bana rahega. Is liye trading decisions lete waqt market ki dynamics ko closely monitor karna aur risk ko effectively manage karna zaroori hai.