Audjpy

AUD/JPY Analysis

Australia ke Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI March ke 47.3 se barh kar April mein 8 mahinon ki bulandee 49.9 par pohanch gaya hai. Pehle ke 54.4 reading se, Services PMI 2 mahinon ki neeche ki level 54.2 par gir gaya. ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly Australian Consumer Confidence 3.2 points gir kar 83.5 se 80.3 par aa gaya, jo is saal ka sabse neecha point hai. ANZ ne financial aur economic subindices mein declines dekhe hain. Sab housing groups mein confidence mein kami dekhi gayi, magar renters sabse zyada mutasir hue.

Tuesday ko, AUD/JPY 99.90 par trade ho raha hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab bhi 50 level ke upar hai aur cross ab bhi important support level 99.65 ke upar hai, jo ek developing bullish feeling ko zahir karta hai. Significant level 100.50 aur April ke high 100.81 ke baad, immediate obstacle psychological level 100.00 par hai. Agar is area ke upar break hota hai, to AUD/JPY cross ascending channel ke upper bound ko challenge kar sakta hai. April mein, Australia ka Judo Bank Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) pichle mahine ke 53.3 se improve hoke 24 mahine ki bulandee 53.6 par pohanch gaya. Yeh zahir karta hai ke Australian private sector doosri quarter mein tezi se grow karega, jisme services sector growth mein aage rahega.



Neeche ki taraf, psychological level 99.50 AUD/JPY cross ke liye instantaneous support faraham kar sakta hai. Agar is threshold ke neeche break hota hai, to yeh do 99.00 ke psychological threshold ke qareeb ja sakte hain. Agar yahan se neeche break hota hai, to yeh do rising channel ke bottom bound ko challenge kar sakte hain. Tuesday ko AUD/JPY pichle session ke gains banane ke baad stable rehta hai. Australian dollar (AUD), jo AUD/JPY cross ko support karta hai, general upbeat sentiment se faida utha sakta hai, jo ke Middle East mein relaxed geopolitical environment se mutasir ho sakta hai.

AUDJPY currency pair is currently buying situation dikha raha hai H1 timeframe par. Jahan se aap pair ko buy kar sakte hain wo hai 104.50. Protective stop order ko mark ke peechay lagayen - 104.04. Hum parts mein cover karenge, aadhi position ko 45 pips ke baad close karenge. Phir baaki aadhi ko agle 45 pips ke baad close karenge, aur phir jo remainder bachega usko agle 45 pips ke baad cover karenge. Aaj ke liye sirf ek entry par hi rukein.
AUDJPY, 20.5.2024, Monday. Mere salam qabool karein, trading amateurs aur pros. Dekhte hain aaj daily time frame humein kya dikhata hai. Yeh breakout levels hain price 104.87 up aur 95.44 down. Aur sirf hourly time frame dekhte hue hum purchase/sale ka level 104.50 aur 102.74 dekhenge. Jab hourly candle is level se beyond close hoti hai, toh deal mein enter karein.

Buy ke liye: StopLoss - 103.50, TakeProfit - 107.50. Sell ke liye: StopLoss - 103.74, TakeProfit - 99.74. Transaction se exit sirf TP ya SL par hi hoga. Dusre options expenses barha sakte hain aur profits kam kar sakte hain.

Accelerator Oscillator indicator se madad lein. Indicator ke green aur correspondingly growing bars purchases ko indicate karenge, aur red (decreasing) bars sales ko indicate karenge, jo bullish interest ko barhate hain. Dono channels ke mutabiq, priority purchases ko di gayi hai. Sales ke liye koi conditions nahi bani. Iske liye kam az kam M15 channel ko niche dekhna zaroori hai, tab aap sales mein try kar sakte hain. Magar jaisa ke aap pictures mein dekh sakte hain, dono channels upar dekh rahe hain.

Australia aur Japan ke economic landscapes AUD/JPY pair ko significant impact dete hain. Australian dollar (AUD) ne various economic challenges ka samna kiya hai, jismain fluctuating commodity prices aur economic growth concerns shamil hain. Australia ki economy raw materials ke exports par heavily reliant hai, khas tor par iron ore aur coal. Global demand mein changes AUD ko significantly impact kar sakti hain. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne dovish stance maintain kiya hua hai, aur interest rates low rakhe hue hain economic recovery ko support karne ke liye. Magar, rising inflationary pressures RBA ko apni monetary policy ko tighten karne par majboor kar sakti hain, jo AUD ko strengthen kar sakta hai.

AUDJPY Currency Pair Analysis - 19 May 2024

Agar hum is haftay ki trading conditions ko dekhain, to hum yeh nateeja nikal sakte hain ke market ab bhi ek stable uptrend mein chal rahi hai. AudJpy pair mein market trend ke mutabiq, yeh haftay tak bullish rahi hai. Lekin, humein trend reversal ka bhi intezar karna chahiye, jaise ke maheenay ke shuru mein trading period mein hua tha jab seller ne price ko drastically kam karne ki koshish ki thi. Candlestick ne bohot neeche gir ke 99.86 ka price area touch kiya. Yeh sach hai ke bearish trend sirf takreeban do din tak raha, lekin yeh ek warning ke tor par use kiya ja sakta hai ke sellers ka control kisi bhi waqt market par aa sakta hai. Is haftay ki analysis ko zyada objective banane ke liye, humein larger time frame par bhi bullish trend ko monitor karna chahiye. Agar aap chart image ko dekhain jo upar diya gaya hai, to price 104.24 zone tak pohanch gayi hai.





Yeh surat-e-haal yeh zahir karti hai ke buyers ab bhi market mein price movements ko control karte nazar aate hain aur meri rai mein future trading ke liye Buy position ko choose karne ka mauqa ab bhi priority honi chahiye. Agar aap market mein movement ko dekhen, to yeh ab bhi bullish predict kiya ja sakta hai aur shayad next upward trend ka aim 104.52 price zone ko test karna hoga ya shayad yeh expected se zyada upar ja sakti hai. Stochastic indicator se signal 80 zone tak pohanch gaya hai, jo ke yeh zahir karta hai ke market bullish chal rahi hai. Is surat-e-haal ke mutabiq, trend bullish run karne ka hai, jo ke Buy trading option ko choose karne ka bohot acha mauqa faraham karta hai. Shayad agla bullish trip upar ki taraf predict kiya ja sakta hai.

AUD-JPY Pair Forecast

Area 104.11 is haftay ka open area hai aur is area ke ird gird bearish candles ka ek line hai jo ke ek doji ke form mein hai. Aisa lagta hai ke seller pressure apply karne ki koshish kar raha hai, lekin uski koshishen is shaam tak koi natija nahi dikhayi. Lekin, aisa lagta hai ke is dafa seller ko kamiyabi mil sakti hai kyun ke daily stochastic ne bhi yeh zahir kiya hai ke seller ki power zyada hai aur uski line neeche ki taraf curve ho rahi hai, jo ke market conditions ko overbought dikhane ke baad hua hai.

Jaise ke hum jaante hain, is daily trend mein bullish condition hai. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 bhi upar ki taraf hain, jo ke recent bullish current ki strength ko zahir karta hai. Increase kaafi high hai aur prices aise lagta hai ke upar jaane se ruk nahi rahi hain. Haftay ke shuru mein, prices ne market saturation ka thoda response diya, jo ke confirmation ki zarurat hai taake fake signals se bach sakein. Agar price 104.11 ke neeche move karne mein kamiyab hoti hai aur 103.57 number ko paar kar leti hai, to price ke negatively move karne ka possibility hai daily support 103.27 ki taraf, maximum reach ke sath daily EMA 36 line tak.

Dusri taraf, agar price 104.11 ke upar move karte hue 104.50 ko paar kar leti hai, to rally hone ka potential wapas ho sakta hai aur 105.12 se 106.28 area tak positive movement ka target ban sakta hai. Overall, abhi corrective movement ka potential kaafi zyada hai isliye sell option recommend kiya jayega kuch specific limits ko dekhte hue sell trade start karne ke liye.

AUD-JPY Pair Forecast

AUD-JPY market ne lagbhag teen trading din se slope kiya hai. Yeh condition tab hui jab bullish price 104.50 touch karne ke baad continue karne mein fail hui. Sellers ne bhi hissa lene ki koshish ki, lekin unki taqat ab tak itni nahi thi ke market ko dominate kar sake aur prices ko gira sake. Area 103.82 aur 104.39 ke beech ab tak barrier hai. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 bhi gentle price movement ko follow karte hue flat hain. Yeh situation Wednesday ke trading mein bhi continue rahi, jahan prices consolidation area mein rahi. Asian-European sessions mein, prices aaj ke daily open 104.05 ke upar move karti rahi. Lekin, buyers ka encouragement ab tak price ko aage move karane mein kamiyab nahi hua kyun ke resistance 104.42 par hai. Meanwhile, aaj ka closest support 103.68 par form hua. American session mein enter karte hue, sellers ko market ko dominate karte hue aur prices ko daily open cross karne par majboor karte hue dekha gaya. H1 time frame par, 200 EMA price movement ke neeche hai, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke trend ab bhi bullish period mein hai.





AUD-JPY H1 Plan

Jab tak prices slope kar rahi hain aur EMA 12 aur EMA 36 ka crossover form nahi hua, yeh momentum worth waiting hai market mein enter karne se pehle. Daily aur H1 analysis se, aur H1 time frame par mapping area ko dekhte hue, yeh trading plan hai current AUD-JPY pair ke liye.

- Sell Plan: Price breakout support 103.68 ki condition ke sath sell plan prepare kiya gaya hai. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 ke beech downside crossover form hota hai, EMA 200 ke position ko dekhte hue jo ab 103.57 price par cross ho rahi hai. Take profit level 103.30 se 103.07 tak calculated hai.

- Alternative Sell Plan: Agar positive price movement continue hoti hai aur pullback 104.87 area mein hota hai, to nearest weakening target 104.50–104.42 hoga.

- Buy Plan: Yeh plan trend ke ab bhi bullish hone ko dekhte hue banaya gaya hai, increase ka potential ab bhi open hai. Agar price resistance 104.42 par breakout karti hai aur EMA 12 aur EMA 36 upside crossover form karte hain, to closest take profit level 104.97 hoga.

- Buy Pullback Opportunity: Yeh opportunity exploit ki ja sakti hai agar price correctly move hoti hai aur 200 H1 EMA line se reject hoti hai. Take profit area 103.84 se 104.00 ke beech calculated hai.

Stop loss market entry point se 15 pips door hoga.

AUD-JPY Currency Pair

FIBO grid ke web mein. Area -50-103.708 aur 0-104.079 jo ke Fibo grid data se liya gaya hai, previous day's daily candle ke extremes par located hai, yeh ek important area hai trading decision lene ke liye. Yeh itna important kyun hai? Haqiqat yeh hai ke market price 103.787 isi mein zinda hai.

Is tarah, mujhe sellers ke advantages ke baare mein maloomat mili aur maine sale ka decision liya. Main 103.512 ke level -76.4 tak sell karunga, jo ke aggressively behave kar sakta hai, ek return dekar. Isliye, main isko partially close karunga aur used pe transfer karunga. Main remaining part ko -150-102.966 ke level tak hold karne ki koshish karunga, jahan main sab kuch close kar dunga. Iske baad, yeh currency pair ko agle business day tak akela chhod diya ja sakta hai. Stock mein ek purchase option bhi hai; iska demand analyzed range se zyada hoga. Agar bullish growth 0-104.079 fibo level ke upar hoti hai, to main bull mein change ho jaunga. Jab broken range par wapas aayega, main 0-104.079 se buy karunga.

Doosri half mein, price pullback ke baad lower M5 timeframe mein, hum market ke mutabiq entry sell karenge. Main hamesha risk/reward ratio kam az kam 1 to 3 ya us se zyada rakhta hoon. Lower ratio wali transactions ko hum side pe rakh denge; koi bhi risk justified hona chahiye. Mera stop order hamesha fixed hota hai twenty points par. Kuch log kahenge ke yeh zyada hai, lekin ab tak ke trading experience ke mutabiq, maine is figure par focus karne ka faisla kiya hai. Phir mulaqat hogi, colleagues! Profitable trades!

Japan ke Bank ke Governor ne haal hi mein traders ko ek kaafi hawkish statement ke sath surprise kiya, jo unke liye kaafi unusual tha. Unhone kaha ke agar core inflation central bank ke forecasts ke mutabiq develop hoti hai to regulator monetary support ka degree adjust karega. Halanki unhone timeline ke baare mein kuch nahi kaha, unki rhetoric ne Japanese currency ko support kiya, khaaskar Japan ke capital city mein inflation ke tezi se barhne ke peeche.

Tokyo Consumer Price Index, jo ke poore desh mein inflation dynamics ko predict karne ke liye ek leading indicator mana jata hai, May mein April ke girne ke baad tezi se barha. Headline CPI 1.8% se barhkar 2.2% ho gaya, aur core CPI (fresh food ke prices ko exclude karke) 1.6% se barhkar 1.9% ho gaya. Dono figures consensus ke sath coincide kiye, lekin inflation mein tezi ko reflect kiya.

Yen ne Bank of Japan ke data par bhi react kiya, jiske mutabiq April mein corporate services ke prices 1991 ke baad se sabse tezi se barhe, agar tax increases ke impact ko exclude kiya jaye. Jaise ke aap jaante hain, Japanese regulator closely services ke prices ko monitor karta hai kyunki yeh commodities ke prices se zyada accurately labor cost ko reflect karte hain.





Importantly, yen ke devaluation ne Japanese exports ke liye high demand ko enable kiya, is tarah se inflationary pressure barh gaya. Bohot se analysts ke mutabiq, yeh situation central bank ko monetary policy ko further tighten karne par majboor karegi: ya to bond purchases ka rate reduce karke ya interest rates barhake.

Agar hum 4-hour chart dekhein, to AUD/JPY cross currency pair apne main bias, yani Bull, se correct ho raha hai, jo EMA 50 ke EMA 200 ke upar hone se confirm hota hai. Lekin Stochastic Oscillator indicator ke Oversold level par hone aur level 20 ke upar barhne ki tayyari dekhte hue, near future mein AUD/JPY level 103.80 ko test karne ki koshish karega. Agar yeh successfully break ho jata hai to level 104.29 agla target banega, lekin agar is target level ki taraf raste mein AUD/JPY dobara weak ho kar 102.85 se neeche gir jata hai to pehle se bataye gaye strengthening scenarios invalid aur automatically cancel ho jayenge.

AUD/JPY Currency Pair Analysis

AUD/JPY currency pair jo ke ab 106.14 par trade kar raha hai, is waqt bearish trend dikhara hai. Halanki haal ke market movement slow rahe hain, kuch factors suggest karte hain ke near future mein ek significant shift ho sakta hai. Macroeconomic environment, geopolitical influences, market sentiment, aur technical indicators ko analyze karke hum dynamics ko samajh sakte hain aur potential market movements ko anticipate kar sakte hain.

Macroeconomic Environment

Australia aur Japan ki economic landscapes AUD/JPY pair ko significantly impact karti hain. Australian dollar (AUD) ko kuch economic challenges face karne par pressure raha hai, jismein fluctuating commodity prices aur economic growth ke concerns shaamil hain. Australia ki economy zyada tar raw materials ke exports par dependent hai, khaaskar iron ore aur coal. Global demand mein koi bhi change AUD ko significantly impact kar sakta hai. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne dovish stance maintain rakha hai, aur economic recovery support karne ke liye interest rates low rakha hai. Lekin, rising inflationary pressures RBA ko monetary policy tighten karne par majboor kar sakti hain, jo ke AUD ko strengthen kar sakti hain.

Iske baraks, Japanese yen (JPY) ko aksar safe-haven currency mana jata hai, aur yeh global economic uncertainty ke dauraan strength gain karta hai. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ne ultra-loose monetary policy maintain rakhi hai taake deflation ko combat kar sake aur growth ko stimulate kar sake. Lekin agar Japan mein inflation pick up hoti hai, BoJ apni policy stance adjust karne par consider kar sakti hai, jo ke JPY ko affect kar sakti hai. Japan ke economic indicators, jaise ke GDP growth, industrial production, aur consumer spending bhi JPY ki strength ko determine karne mein crucial roles play karte hain.

Geopolitical Factors

Geopolitical events bhi currency movements ke liye ek critical driver hain. Trade relations, political stability, aur global economic conditions AUD/JPY pair mein heightened volatility lead kar sakte hain. For instance, major economies ke ongoing trade negotiations market sentiment ko influence kar sakte hain aur AUD ko impact kar sakte hain, given ke Australia ek major exporter hai. Trade relations mein positive developments ya geopolitical conflicts ke resolutions investor confidence ko boost kar sakte hain, jo ke dono AUD aur JPY ko impact kar sakte hain.

Dono countries mein political stability bhi ek significant role play karti hai. Koi bhi political turmoil ya uncertainty, jaise ke elections ya policy changes, investor sentiment aur currency strength ko impact kar sakte hain. For example, government policies mein changes jo economic growth prospects ya investor confidence ko affect karte hain, AUD/JPY pair mein significant movements lead kar sakte hain.

Market Sentiment and Speculative Activities

Market sentiment aur speculative activities currency movements ko significantly influence karte hain. Traders aur investors closely economic indicators jaise ke GDP growth, employment rates, aur manufacturing output from both Australia aur Japan ko monitor karte hain taake economic health assess kar sakein. Australia se positive economic data, jaise ke strong employment figures ya robust GDP growth, AUD mein confidence instill kar sakti hain, potentially bearish trend ko reverse kar sakti hain. Conversely, weak data current downward trend ko exacerbate kar sakti hain.

Similarly, Japan se strong economic performance indicators JPY ko further strengthen kar sakte hain, AUD/JPY pair par bearish pressure maintain karte hue. Speculative activities, jo ke market expectations aur news par reactions ke driven hoti hain, in movements ko amplify kar sakte hain. For instance, agar traders RBA ya BoJ policies mein shift anticipate karte hain, to wo accordingly position le sakte hain, jo ke significant price movements lead kar sakta hai.





Technical Analysis

Technical analysis AUD/JPY pair ke potential future movements par additional insights provide karta hai. Is waqt, pair ek critical support level ke qareeb hai. Agar yeh level se neeche break karta hai, to yeh bearish trend ke continuation ka signal de sakta hai, potentially further declines lead kar sakta hai. Conversely, agar pair is support par hold karta hai aur rebound shuru karta hai, to yeh reversal aur significant upward movement indicate kar sakta hai.

Traders aksar technical indicators jaise ke moving averages, RSI (Relative Strength Index), aur MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) ko use karte hain taake potential trend reversals ya continuations identify kar sakein. For example, agar RSI indicate karta hai ke pair oversold territory mein hai, to yeh suggest kar sakta hai ke rebound imminent hai. Similarly, MACD mein convergence potential bullish reversal indicate kar sakti hai. In signals ko dekh kar traders informed decisions le sakte hain.

Conclusion

Jabke AUD/JPY is waqt bearish trend aur slow market movements experience kar raha hai, kuch factors significant changes ke potential ko suggest karte hain. Economic conditions, central bank policies, geopolitical events, market sentiment, aur technical analysis sab point karte hain ke aane wale dinon mein volatility ho sakti hai. Yeh pair apne bearish trajectory ko continue karega ya bullish reversal experience karega, yeh in factors ke unfold hone par depend karta hai. Is liye, traders aur investors ke liye crucial hai ke wo informed rahein aur naye developments par ready rahen jo AUD/JPY currency pair ko impact kar sakti hain. Ek well-informed aur strategic approach iss currency pair mein potential shifts ko navigate karne ke liye essential hogi, market participants ko emerging opportunities capitalize karne ka mauka deti hui.

AUDJPY currency abhi H1 timeframe par buying situation dikha rahi hai. Jahan se aap pair khareed sakte hain wo hai 104.50. Mark - 104.04 ke peechay ek protective stop order lagayein. Hum alag-alag hisson mein cover karenge, hum position ka adha hissa band karenge - 45 p ke baad. Phir hum baqi ka adha hissa bhi - 45 p ke baad band karenge. Aur baqi ko agle - 45 p ke baad band karenge. Aaj ke liye hum sirf ek entry par rok leinge. AUDJPY. 20.5.2024. Somwar. Trading beginners aur professionals ko mera salam, khubsoorti hai. Chaliye dekhte hain aaj humein daily timeframe kya dikhata hai. Aur yeh breakout levels hain 104.87 se upar aur 95.44 se neeche. Sirf ghanto ke timeframe par dekh kar hum dekhenge 104.50 aur 102.74 ke liye kharid/farokht ke level. Jab ghanto ka candle level se pare ho jaye, hum deal mein dakhil ho jate hain. Kharidne ke liye: StopLoss - 103.50 TakeProfit - 107.50. Farokht ke liye: StopLoss - 103.74 TakeProfit - 99.74. Transaction se sirf TP ya SL se exit karen. Doosre options kharche ko barha sakte hain aur munafa ko kam kar sakte hain.
Madad ke liye Accelerator Oscillator indicator. Indicator ke hare aur uthne wale bars kharid ko darshate hain, aur laal (ghat rahe) bars farokht ko darshate hain jo bullish interest ko aur bhi barha dete hain. Dono channels ke hisaab se kharid ko pehla darja diya jata hai. Farokht ke liye koi shartein nahi bani hain. Iske liye kam se kam M15 channel nicha dekhne ki zarurat hoti hai, phir farokht mein koshish ki ja sakti hai. Par jaisa aap tasviro mein dekh sakte hain, dono channels upar ki taraf dekh rahe hain.



Australia aur Japan ke economic landscapes AUD/JPY pair par bade asar dalte hain. Australian dollar (AUD) ko mukhtalif arthik challenges ka samna karna pada hai, jismein fluctuating commodity prices aur arthik vikas ke baare mein chintaen shamil hain. Australia ki arthvyavastha bhaari matra mein kachchi material ki exports par nirbhar hai, khaaskar iron ore aur coal. In commodities ke global maang mein kisi bhi tabdili ne AUD par bada asar dal sakta hai. Iske alawa, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne ek dovish stance banaye rakha hai, arthik punaruddhar ko sahayak banane ke liye interest rates ko kam rakha hai. Magar badhte inflational pressures RBA ko majboor kar sakte hain apni mudra niti ko tight karne ke liye, jo AUD ko mazboot kar sakta hai.

AUD/JPY Chart Analysis Technical Outlook:

Technical summary market situation ka ek jhalak faraham karta hai. Ye parameters hain jo market ki halat aur rukh ka pata lagane ke liye hote hain. Traders ko sahi trade spot karne ke liye tafseeli tahlil ki zaroorat hoti hai. A currency correlation ek darja hai jis mein ek pair doosre pair se talluq rakhta hai. Currency correlation ek numeric scale par tay ki jati hai jo -1 se +1 tak hoti hai, bilkul isi tarah jaise correlation coefficient. Numeric ki values ek currency correlation mein shamil hui dikhate hain ke association level kya hai. Australian Dollar against the Japanese Yen (AUD/JPY) ne hali mein aik kamal ka urooj dekha hai, haal hi mein symmetric triangle pattern se azad ho gaya, jo chart par neeli lines se dikhaya gaya hai. Ye breakout sirf aik technical achievement nahi hai; balkay yeh ek mazboot bullish momentum ko dikhata hai jo pair mein ban raha hai. Is urooj ke saath ek ahem horizontal resistance bhi toot gaya hai, jo chart par hari rang se pehchana gaya hai, jo mojooda trend ki taqat ko aur ziada authentic banata hai.

Haal hil mein AUD/JPY mein urooj lajawab hai. Magar, forex trading ke duniya mein, aise tezi se bharne wale raste aksar bearish corrections ke imkanat ko buland karte hain. Aik pullback, jise shayad itna zor parne ki wajah se pair ko haal hil recently tooti hui hari resistance ke neeche kheench sake, na mumkin nahi hai. Aise corrections asal mein long-term trends ko sambhalne mein mufeed aur mahfooz hoti hain. Ye traders ke liye mauqe faraham karte hain jo pehli urooj se guzar gaye hain aur mojooda bullish narrative mein shamil hone ka moqa dene hain. Australian dollar ko global sone ki production aur export ke kirdar ki wajah se a commodity currency kaha jata hai. Aussie gold ke value ke saath long-term positive correlation dikhata hai. Jabke, Canadian dollar ko bhi aik commodity currency ghoshit kiya gaya hai, aur ye energy products crude oil aur natural gas ke saath correlation dikhata hai. Kyunki Australian dollar pehli currency (base currency) hai aur Canadian dollar doosri currency (quote currency) hai, to ye pair aik cross currency pair kehlata hai.





AUD/JPY moderate rehta hai lekin ye thori bullish basic trend ko sawal utha sakta hai. Isi halaton mein trading direction dena mushkil hai. Pe pehla support 96.71 JPY par hai. Pe pehla resistance 97.80 JPY par hai. Aap is instrument par zyada zahir price movement ka intezar kar ke sideline par reh sakte hain. Ek naai analysis tab ki ja sakti hai jab clear signals faraham kiye ja sakte hain. AUD/JPY trading mein aik mashhoor currency pair hai, magar yeh har kisi ke liye zaroori nahi hai. AUD/JPY currency pair volatile jana jata hai aur is liye zyada tajwez shuda traders ke liye mufeed ho sakta hai jo tezi se price fluctuations ka faida utha sakte hain. Ye currency pair woh logon ke liye bhi mufeed ho sakta hai jo zyada volatility wale markets mein trade karna pasand karte hain, sath hi long-term investors jo mante hain ke waqt ke sath Australian dollar ki qeemat mein izafa hoga. Jaise kisi bhi tarah ki trading mein, AUD/JPY pairing mein shamil hone se pehle tamam factors ko ghaur se talash karna zaroori hai aur yeh bhi pakka karna hai ke aapko samajh mein aata hai ke market forces is khas pairing ko kaise asar andaz karte hain.. pehla buy signal mazboot hai aur jab tak AUD/JPY triangle pattern ke hadood ke bahar apni position barqarar rakhta hai, yeh aage barqarar rahega. Is pattern ke andar se bahar nikalna bullish precedent set kar chuka hai, aur sirf triangle ke hadood mein vapas jana ye manzoor na karega.

AUD-JPY JODA JAIZA

AUDJPY Joda ki qeemat ki harkat lag rahi hai k mid-BB ke oper rehne ki koshish kar rahi hai, haan jab ye tezi se upar uth'ta hai, to top-BB tak nahi pohanchta. Magar agar aap tawajjo den to qeemat ki harkat naye bulandiyon ko banane mein kamyab hai jo pehle se zyada uncha hain. Ye ishara deta hai k qeemat ki harkat ka rukh ab bhi mazeed sayarti halat mein hai, jo 98.48 pe resistance ko test karne ki koshish kar sakti hai. Daily timeframe pe Bollinger Bands indicator ka istemal kar ke dekha gaya to dikha ke qeemat ko bechnay wale ne kamiyab tor par control kiya, jo qeemat ko neeche le jane se rok saka Upper Bollinger Bands area se door hotay hue bearish candle banakar jo mazboot tha takay bechnay wale ki position AudJpy market jode mein trading ko dominate kar sakein. Bearish dabao aaj phir shayad hota hai, jahan sellers ka irada hai ke qeemat ko neeche le kar qebl-e-kharidar ke support area ko 96.90–96.95 pe test karein takay Middle Bollinger Bands area ki janib jaa sake.





RSI indicator parameter (14) ka manzar dikhata hai ke qeemat ka rukh ke maloom nahi hai. Kyun ke ye parameter sirf upper 50 level se guzarta rehta hai bina oversold ya overbought zone mein jaaye. Ye iska matlab hai ke future harkat Mid BB ke aas paas jam ho jaaye gi, intezar kar ke jab qeemat ke nazdeek tarin ya buland tareen qeemat se guzar gaya hai.

Main samjhta hoon ke daily time frame ki baat karte hue trading option jo aap ko tawajjo deni chahiye woh Mid-BB area hai. Misal ke taur pe agar qeemat ab mid-BB ko chhuna nazar aata hai, to aap foran ek kharidar position rakh sakte hain nazdeek tarin buland qeemat ka maqasid. RSI indicator parameter (14) tasdeeq ke tor par upyog nahi kiya ja sakta kyunki uski harkat ab tak level 50 ke aas paas neutral hai.

AUD/JPY H4

Australian Dollar - Japanese Yen. Currency pair/instrument ke chart par Heiken Ashi candles ke taur par ek saaf bearish signal ka tayyon hai, is liye main is waqt sirf farokht ko madde nazar rakhna durust samajhta hoon. Heikin Ashi candlestick indicator, TMA, aur RSI ke taur par trading instruments ki combination mein, qeemat ki harkat ki junubi taraf ki pehredari aur sunehri ke quotes mein mazeed kami hone ki imkan ki priority aati hai. Heiken Ashi candles, jo traditional Japanese candles ke muqablay mein qeemat ke aam value ko hamwar banate hain aur halke chhilke, sahi waqt par maulana nishane, taqseem karne wale pullbacks, aur impulsive qeemat ki teziyon ko dekhne ka mauqa dete hain, is tarah trader analysis ko kafi asani se sahulat faraham karte hain. Triangular Moving Average (TMA) linear channel indicator, chart par Moving Averages ke bunyadi par dudharay aur muntaqili rekhayein banata hai, jo asbabil ki hadood ko dikhane mein bhi aham madadgar sabit hota hai. Trade mein dakhil hone ka final faisla karne ke liye, RSI oscillator indicator ka istemal hota hai, jo trade pair ke oversold aur overbought areas ko darshata hai. Aise trading tools ka istemal karne se trading mein buhat asani hoti hai aur jhootay market mein shamil hone se bachne mein madad milti hai.






Jis pair ka tajziya kiya gaya hai, wahan halat abhi aise ban gaye hain jahan candles laal hain, is ka matlab hai ke bears is waqt kaafi mazboot hain aur qeemat ko junubi simaon ki taraf push kar rahe hain. Bearish market sentiment ke buniyad par, ek acha mauqa paida hua hai ke mufeed qeematon par short positions kholin jaa sakti hain. Qeemat ne linear channel ke nichle hud se neeche cross kiya hai (laal phanda hua line), lekin jab qeemat ne intehai extreme point pohancha, to is ne bounce back kiya aur apni rukh ko channel ke darmiyan ki line ki taraf badal diya. Ehmiyat hai ke RSI (14) indicator bhi farokht ka signal manzoor karta hai, kyun ke ye short position chunne ke criteria ke mutabiq hota hai - is ki curve hal waqt neeche ki taraf point kar rahi hai aur oversold level se kaafi door hai. Is liye ye kaha ja sakta hai ke ab instrument ki dominant nichli rukh shanehal ko darust karte hue ab selling out ke buhat zyada imkanat ki waja se, ek short position kiya ja sakta hai. Take profit ko mutanazaan tareeqay se 97.246 ke qeemat ke level par mojood channel ke nichle border (blue phanda hua line) ke aas paas set karna mashwara diya jata hai. Agar bebas qeemat ki harkaton ka raasta badal gaya, to hamesha stops set karna aur nasib par bharosa na karna mashwara hai. Profit ko nuqsaan mein tabdeel hone se rokne ke liye, jab position profit mein chali jaye, Trailing stop orders istemal kiye ja sakte hain taake mazeed profit hasil karne ka koshish kiya ja sake.

AUDJPY Technical Outlook:

Australian Dollar aik ahem currency hai aur ek aham tarin worldwide trade mein shamil hai. Australia ke paas natural resources mein beshumar resources hain, jin mein loha, coal, aur sona shaamil hain jo is ke exports ka bara hissa banate hain. India aur China ke qareebi hone ki wajah se, in donon mulkon ki Australian cheezon aur maal ka intehai sarmaya hai. Is ke ilawa, Australia imports mein wazani machinery aur in mulkon mein utpadit maal shamil hai. Is natije mein, jab woh mulk jo Australian maal ko import karte hain, arz-e-tanzeem mein mushkil waqt guzarte hain, to is ka asar Australian exporters par hota hai, supply chain ko nuqsaan pohchata hai aur Australian dollar ko kamzor kar deta hai. JPY ko aik safe haven tasleem kiya gaya hai aur investors economic risk ke doran is currency mein invest karne ki raay rakhte hain. Is ke ilawa, JPY dusre mulkon mein investments ke liye aik qeemat hai, is ke low-interest rates ki wajah se. Is liye, maali tajarat investors ko unke high-yield assets ko khatam karne aur JPY ko boost karne ki taraf le ja sakti hain.

Lekin, jab JPY ko ek safe-haven asset ke taur par dekha jata hai, ye pehle sachi thi, lekin is saal tak yeh bayan asal nahi sabit hua, jab yen doosri zarai currencies ke muqable mein gir gayi. Aik buland dollar aur Japanese economy ke baray mein pareshani, aur central bank ke kaarwai ke baray mein ashobnak inflation ko roknay ke liye, safe haven yen gir gaya. Jabke takneeki tajziya dakhil, chhoot aur trades ke pinpoint karne ke liye aik ahem tool hai, directional bias aksar macroeconomic factors se mutasir hota hai jo bari markets aur individual economies par asar andaz hotay hain. Misal ke tor par, Ukraine-Russia tahzibi jhagra, mehengai, soaring energy prices, aur aur zyada is saal tak market drivers rahe hain. Is ke ilawa, interest rates, rozgar, inflation data, GDP aur zyada ek mulk ki currency ke harkat ko asar andaz honge. Isliye, takneekiyon ka istemal market mein daakhil hone aur nikalne ke liye (stop-losses, take profits, etc.) zaroori hai, lekin maali/geopolitical data aur maamlat se mutalliq up-to-date rehna bhi bara ahem hai.






Hauzri tasweer ke mutabiq, mojooda short-term bearish trend jaldi neutral ya bearish trend ko reset karna mutawaqqa hai. Short term ke mukhalif honay se bachne ke liye, AUD/JPY ke liye short positions (farokht) ko population ( ) banane ki zaroorat hai jab tak qeemat 99.64 JPY ke neeche achi tarah se rehti hai. Aglay bearish maqsaad farokht kay liye 98.95 JPY par set kiya gaya hai. Is support ka bearish break bearish momentum ko dobara zinda kar sakta hai. Farokhtdah is support ko nishana bn skty hain jo ke 98.58 JPY par mojood hai. Par farokht, agla maqsaad support ka hoga jo 98.28 JPY par ho ga. Basic trend zahir nahi hota, tau attention 98.95 JPY par hone wale support ka prices ke jawab dena ku hona chahiye. Is support ke saath, trend ke mukhalif traders jo apni trading strategy ke buy signal se AUD/JPY ko kharidna chahte hain, ko amal par anjaam dena mehfooz nahi hona chahiye. Qeemat ke action ka amm context aik mustaqil formation ko reflect karta hai jahan trendline resistance level (Lal line) 98.00 ke ooper hai, ek break aur resistance line ke close aage ki raah khol sakte hain, lekin agar price action resistance ke ooper nahi ja sakta, price action wapas mustaqil formation ke andar shuru ho sakta hai.

Qeemat apne EMA9 aur monthly pivot 95.95 ke ooper trade jaari rahi hai, support ka aik ittehad annual pivot point aur mahana S1 calculation 93.80 ke level kareeb hai. Price action aur tick volume ke darmiyan negative divergence chart par pehchan gaya tha, aur ek aur negative divergence price action aur RSI ke darmiyan mojood hai, jab price action high highs banata hai jab indicators low highs banate hain, aik inverted complex Head and Shoulder formation choti time frames (4 hours) mein dekha ja sakta hai jab traders FOMC interest rate cuts par inteshar karte hain, nazaria se, USD par kam dar sasta par musbat tajzia hone ki umeed hai, lekin is ka kitna hissa qeemat mein mukarar hai ye sawal hai. Price action neckline par nazdeeq se monitor kiya ja sakta hai jahan tak hum Non-Farm Payroll release time ke qareeb hain, a false breakout aur a pattern failure bhi aik mumkin hai, khas taur par haftawar chart par aur trendline resistance level par negative divergences ke saath. (Lal line)

AUD/JPY
Subah bakhair!
Jab taqat barhane ki koshish ki gai thi, tab dabao mehsoos hua jo barqarar rakhne ki koshish ki gayi thi, lekin khareedne walo ki quwat ab bhi is waqt mazboot thi. Pichle Jumma ke trading me, keemat ke harkaat kam flexible thin aur raqam mamooli thi, halankeh farokht karne walon ki koshishon ki bawajood keemat ko mazeed khatam karne ke liye. EMA 200 jo keemat ke harkaat ke neechay hai jo ke lagbhag pohanch gaya tha, ek mazboot nichli rukao hosakta hai jo ke manfi keemat ke harkaat ko rok sakta hai. Kal ke liye kya mauqe hain?

Pichle Jumma ko lag raha tha ke market mein keemat ki harkaat kam dilchasap thin. Isi tarah AUDJPY market par asar hua. Asian session me, keemat ne Jumma se chalte arse se kam hone ki koshish ki. Keemat ne Jumma ka daily open jo ke 99.64 tha se support ko 99.39 mein ghusne ki koshish ki. Nafrat-aamtankari ke 99.05 tak target area pohanchne se pehle, jo EMA 200 H1 line ke mutabiq hai, keemat number 99.14 se raasta badal gaya. Khareedne wale ki quwat ne keematon ko Jumma ke daily open tak le jaane mein kamyabi hasil ki aur us ilaqe ke aas paas jamai rahi. Halankeh farokht karne walon se kuch afkaaf mila bhi, khareedne walon ka asar ab bhi is halchal ka samna karne mein kamyab tha.

AUDJPY market ne aakhir mein 99.70 tak band kiya, jo iss hafte ke trading ke liye bhi band keemat thi. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 ne neeche ki taraf ishara diya, twist ho raha tha kyunki khareedne walon ne hilane shuru kiya tha aur keemat dhire dhire mazboot hui. Ab dono chote EMAs ne ek cross banaya hai aur oopar jane ki koshish kar rahe hain. EMA 200 ab bhi apni asal position mein hai, yani keemat ke harkaat ke neeche, iska matlab hai ke bullish trend jari hai aur EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 ke darmiyan ek oopar ki taraf cross banane se phir tasdeek milti hai. Magar, is halat mein yeh theek nahi keemat phir se tezi se badhegi ya ke yeh keemat ko mazeed girane ka ek dhoka hai.





Jo kamzori keemat barhane ki koshish ki gayi thi Jumma ko woh kamiyab nahi rahi kyunki trading ke doran us din keemat ki harkaat ne ek lambi dhari wali bullish candle ko janm diya. Farokht karne walon ki kamiyabi keemat ko daily support 99.05 ke zariye support karna mehfooz karta hai, upar ki harkaat ka mauqa phir se ban jata hai. Magar, is mauqe ko anjam dene ke liye, keemat ko guzarna hoga, do karwaien jin keemat ne guzar na hai, woh rozana ke resistance 99.81 aur khareedne wale ke khatarnak ilaqe 100.10 - 100.34. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 upar jane ki taraf dikha rahe hain, aur EMA 200 keemat ke harkaat ke bohot neeche hai, iska matlab hai ke trend abhi tak mazboot aur bullish hai. Iske beech, daily Stochastic ko upar jane ki taraf dekha gaya hai aur level 80 tak pohanch gaya hai. OSMA indicator bar mehfooz zone mein hai jo ke is mazbooti ko support karta hai. Magar agar keemat abhi jana hai ke rozana ke resistance 99.81 se khareedna mana kiya jata hai ya keemat ko khareedne wale ke khatarnak ilaqe se guzarne mein nakam rehta hai, to yeh bearish price path phir se shuru kar sakta hai ek tajzi period me dakhil hone ke liye.

Plan H1:

Halat ke mutabiq, keemat support aur resistance 99.38 aur 99.90 ke darmiyan hai. H1 waqt ke frame par maping aur do bar peechle dafa observation ke mutabiq, Monday ke liye AUDJPY par transaction ka intizam yeh hai.
Keemat ke harkaat ki taraf chalne ke mutabiq, khareedne ka option pehle nahi kiya jayega agar keemat resistance 99.89 ko tor jaaye, EMA 12 aur EMA 36 upar ki taraf mudraja hai, sath hi take profit order ko 100.29 se 100.98 ke darajon par lekar jana hai.
Peechle khareedne ka irada banega agar phir se kamzori aa jati hai aur keemat EMA 200 H1 line se inkar kar deta hai, to mazboot hone ka target 99.65 - 99.98 ilaqa mein rakha jayega.
Agar keemat upper limit 99.90 ko guzar nahi sakti hai to bechana ek option ban jata hai agar support 99.38 ko tor jata hai, EMA 12 aur EMA 36 ke darmiyan oopar ki taraf cross ban jata hai, aur kamzor hone ka target 99.05 ke darajon tak pohnch jata hai, jo asal target hai. Agar farokht dabaav keemat 98.99 tak la sakta hai aur keemat EMA 200 ke neeche pohnchta hai, to farokht jari rakha jayega aur agla target EMA 633 H1 line ke 98.58 ke darajon tak hoga.
Agar keemat 100.10 - 100.34 ilaqa se inkar karta hai to bechne ka moassar mazid madde nazar farma jayega jo ke asal waqt EMA 12 aur EMA 36 ke positions ka khayal rakhta hai.
Entry point se 15 pips ki stop-loss.

USD/JPY pair ne hal hi mein crucial 160.00 level ko break karte hue apni rally ko extend kiya, buyer confidence ke sath. USD ke liye support mazboot raha, jise positive economic indicators jaise recent US PMIs aur Consumer Confidence report ne bolster kiya. Iske ilawa, latest US Jobless Claims figures ne job market ke tightening ka indication diya hai, layoffs ke bajaye, jo interest rate expectations ko stabilize kar rahe hain bina inflationary pressures ke anticipated growth ke sath.
Japanese yen ke losses 161.90 se zyada ho gaye hain US dollar ke muqable mein, 38 saal ke lowest levels tak girte hue due to stark differences in interest rates between Japan aur United States. Bank of Japan ki lack of urgency to normalize monetary conditions ne bhi currency ko weigh kiya hai, halan ke ye speculation badh raha hai ke Bank of Japan apni next policy meeting mein late July tak interest rates raise kar sakta hai. Japanese yen ki weakness higher import costs ko lead kar rahi hai, inflationary pressures ko badha rahi hai aur household consumption ko nuqsan pohancha rahi hai.

Is doran, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki ne Tuesday ko zor diya ke government currency movements par vigilant rahti hai, aur note kiya ke forex levels complex factors ka mix reflect karte hain. Economic data front par, second revision ne dikhaya ke Japanese economy January-March quarter mein annual rate par 2.9% contract hui, pehle ke reading 1.8% ke comparison mein sharp decline due to weaker adjustment in spending on public works.

US dollar ki price Japanese yen ke muqable mein (USD/JPY) resistance level 161.95 ki taraf barh gayi, jo Japanese yen ka 38 saal ka lowest price hai. Currency pair ke gains bade amid continuing doubts about the Bank of Japan's ambition to normalize monetary policy aur unexpected rise in US yields. Yen ki depreciation past month mein continue hui, lekin latest phase of currency's depreciation ke doran Japanese officials ki taraf se verbal warnings ka notable absence raha.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki ne usual comment diya ke government market ko closely monitor karti hai, lekin koi explicit warning to intervene nahi di. Yeh bhi mumkin hai ke Suzuki action nahi lena chahte jab tak newly appointed Deputy Finance Minister for International Affairs, jo exchange rate policy ke in charge hain, 31 July ko office nahi le lete. Lekin yeh bhi indicate kar sakta hai ke exchange rate ke liye higher level of tolerance hai. Halan ke, Forex currency market mein intervention increase hui hai.