Gbp/jpy

GBP/JPY Pair Review
Do hafte se British Pound aur Japanese Yen (GBP/JPY) ke beech price downward correction path par chal rahi hai, aur is girawat ne 201.88 ke support level tak pahunch gaya, jo ek mahine mein sabse kam hai. Analysis likhne ke waqt price 203.10 ke aaspaas hai aur naye price trend ka intezar ho raha hai. Reliable trading companies ke platforms ke mutabiq, pound ne is saal G10 currencies mein apni position ko mazboot kiya hai, aur ING Bank kehti hai ke trade-weighted index ab bhi 2026 ke Brexit referendum se pehle ke levels se sirf 3% neeche hai.

Market sentiment ab bhi strong hai, lekin is mahine long positions ke barhne se currency sharp correction ke liye vulnerable ho sakti hai. Forex market trading ke mutabiq, GBP/USD exchange rate ne 1.2900 ke aaspaas support dhoondha aur shuru mein 1.2935 tak recover kiya. Lekin Scotiabank ab bhi sterling ke bare mein positive hai; “Daily candlestick pattern mein aaj ek potential ‘Harami’ signal develop hota nazar aa raha hai, jo agar din ke end par confirm hota hai, toh 1.2900/10 par stronger support indicate kar sakta hai. Resistance levels 1.2970/75 aur 1.3045/50 hain.”

Saath hi, pound ka euro ke muqablay (GBP/EUR) rate 1.1880 tak barh gaya. General taur par, sterling long positions ka barhna ek aham discussion point rahega. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ke latest COT data ke mutabiq, pound mein non-commercial long positions mein aur bhi izafa hua hai. Ek hafte mein positions ka record jump dekha gaya, aur long positions ka record high 130,000 contracts se zyada ho gaya. Value ke hisaab se bhi, long positions ne $10.77 billion ka record high achieve kiya hai.

Rabobank ne comment kiya: “British pound mein net long positions teen hafte se lagatar barh rahi hain, jo dramatic increase ka shikar hai, aur iske saath long positions ke barhne se risk of sharp correction bhi badh gaya hai.” Yeh data general election ke baad sentiment ke shift ko illustrate karta hai, lekin long positions ko trim karne se sharp correction ka risk bhi barh jata hai.

UK data releases ko nazar mein rakha jayega, aur market Bank of England ke monetary policy meeting jo 1 August ko hai, ka bhi intezar kar rahi hai. Agar data expectations se kamzor aati hai aur rate cut expectations phir se barh jaati hain, toh pound vulnerable ho sakta hai. Economic calendar ke mutabiq, latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) business confidence data Wednesday ko release hogi, jahan market thodi si improvement ki umeed kar rahi hai, manufacturing aur services sectors expansion range mein hain. Citigroup ke chief British economist Benjamin Nabarro ne Friday ko weak retail sales data ka zikr kiya aur kaha: “Agar economic recovery ek halki hawa se derail ho sakti thi, toh shayad yeh itni mazboot nahi thi, jo underlying momentum par doubt cast karti hai.”




Raat ko, US President Biden ne announce kiya ke woh November ke presidential elections se withdraw karenge aur Vice President Harris ko Democratic Party ke liye nominate karenge. MUFG ne comment kiya: “Jab se Biden ke withdraw karne ka decision zyada likely lag raha hai, yeh American politics mein naye uncertainties inject kar raha hai, November elections se pehle.” Bank ne add kiya: “Overall, recent developments market expectations ko significant tarike se alter karte nahi nazar aate ke Trump re-election ke liye track par hai, jab tak uski poll lead agle mahine mein shrink na ho jaye. Hum ek tougher race ko US dollar ke liye kam favorable samjhenge.”

Sterling ki Japanese Yen ke muqablay forecast aaj ke liye:

Daily chart ke mutabiq, GBP/JPY pair ab bhi downward channel mein hai, aur agar 200.00 level break hota hai, toh bears ka control trend par mazboot ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar Japan Forex market mein intervention ko jaari rakhta hai taake yen ko baqi major currencies ke muqablay mein aur girne se roka ja sake. Main ab bhi GBP/JPY ko kisi bhi bullish level se bechne ki preference rakhta hoon. Filhal, currency pair ke liye agle resistance levels 204.20 aur 206.00 hain.

GBP/JPY currency pair ne chaar din se lagatar girawat ka samna kiya hai, aur ab Wednesday ke Asian session mein 199.50 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. Yeh girawat aam tor par safety ki taraf bhagne ki wajah se hai, jiski wajah se Japanese Yen ki value barh gayi hai. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke agle hafte interest rates barhane ki umeed is market movement ko influence kar rahi hai. Yeh hawkish stance short sellers ko apni positions chhodne par majboor kar raha hai, jo Yen ko mazboot kar raha hai. Japanese government ke senior figures bhi is expectation ko support kar rahe hain. Ruling party ke official Toshimitsu Motegi ne BoJ se keh diya hai ke wo apni monetary policy normalization ke plan ko gradual interest rate increases ke zariye mazboot kare, jabke Prime Minister Fumio Kishida ka kehna hai ke isse Japan ko growth-driven economy ki taraf le jaya ja sakta hai. Dono countries ke economic data kaafi mukhtalif hai. Japan ke manufacturing sector ne contraction dekha, Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI July mein 49.2 par gir gaya, jo ke June ke 50.0 se kam hai aur market expectations 50.5 se bhi niche hai. Yeh April ke baad pehli baar hai jab factory activity mein kami dekhi gayi hai. Lekin, services sector ne resilience dikhayi, PMI July mein 53.9 tak barh gaya jo ke pichle mahine ke 49.4 se zyada hai. Yeh sector ka is saal chhatwa mahina hai jab growth dekhi gayi hai aur April ke baad se sabse tez expansion hai.
English Channel ke paar, Bank of England (BoE) ka stance bhi GBP/JPY pair ko influence kar raha hai. August mein BoE ke rate cut ki kam chances Pound ko mazboot kar sakti hain aur pair ke losses ko minimize kar sakti hain. Market participants UK Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) activity survey ke results ka intezar kar rahe hain jo aaj ke din release hone wale hain. Forecasts kehte hain ke UK services PMI July mein rebound kar sakta hai aur 52.5 tak barh sakta hai, jo June ke seven-month low 52.1 se upar hai. Manufacturing PMI bhi 50.9 se barh kar 51.1 tak pohnchne ki umeed hai.





Technical perspective se, agar GBP/JPY ki girawat jari rahi, to near-term support 202.08 par hai. Agar is level ke neeche breach hota hai to girawat April ke high 200.50 ki taraf ho sakti hai, jo is saal dono support aur resistance ka kaam aaya tha. Aage aur losses June ke low 197.18 par ruk sakti hain. Wahi agar pullback ruk jati hai aur pair rebound karta hai, to bullish traders 205.77 ko target kar sakte hain pehle 16-year high 208.10 ka samna karne se pehle. Agar is area ke upar breakout hota hai, to multi-year highs ke liye raste khul sakte hain, jahan April 2008 ka high 209.00 aage ke upward momentum ke liye ek rukawat ban sakta hai.

Yen ko foreign exchange market mein kamzor karne wale ongoing trend ke khilaf mazeed iqdamat kiye gaye hain. Yeh tab bhi ho raha hai jabke UK se kuch economic data aayi hai. Halankeh unemployment claims mein thodi izafa dekha gaya hai, lekin mazboot wage growth ne investors ko tasalli di hai. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ka market mein do baar intervention kiya gaya hai, jo ke chinta ka sabab bana hai. Unki activities ki reports se spending barh gayi hai, jo Yen ko kamzor kar sakti hai. Magar, yeh interventions ke mukhtalif asraat ho sakte hain. GBP/JPY pair ne haal hi mein 197.00 ko touch kiya hai, jo ke 191.50 ke aas-paas se kaafi zyada hai, aur yeh ek significant move hai. Former BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ke mutabiq, central bank apni agli interest rate hike ko September tak postpone kar sakta hai. Yeh wait-and-see approach unhe July aur August ke economic data ko assess karne ka mauka de sakti hai. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki ne BoJ ke saath cooperation par zordiya hai taake currency trends ko monitor aur respond kiya ja sake. In koshishon ke bawajood, GBP/JPY pair apne 16-year high 200.50 se kaafi niche hai, aur filhal 196.47 aur 198.57 ke darmiyan trade kar raha hai. Market ab bhi BoJ interventions ke asraat ko digest kar raha hai, jo shayad US Federal Reserve ke departure se influence ho rahe hain. Yen par continuous pressure ka expectation hai Japanese authorities ke mazeed interventions ke zariye. Technical indicators naye changes ki ishaara kar rahe hain. Jabke Average Directional Index (ADX) recent uptrend ke khatam hone ka signal de raha hai, Relative Strength Index (RSI) neutral hai. Lekin, Stochastic indicator tez girawat dikhata hai, jo Yen ke bearish outlook ki taraf ishaara kar raha hai agar yeh midpoint ki taraf barhta raha. Yeh level khaas ahmiyat rakhta hai kyunki isne Bank of Japan ko late April mein do baar market mein intervene karne par majboor kiya tha taake Yen ko kamzor kiya ja sake. BoJ ab bhi ek wildcard factor hai. Jab US markets May 27th ko band honge, to agar Bank ko lagta hai ke Yen ki kamzori ko curb karna zaroori hai, to ek aur intervention ka mauqa mil sakta hai. Potential headwinds ke bawajood, kuch technical indicators uptrend ko support karte hain. Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) March-June 2023 rally ke baad se apne highest level par pohnch gaya hai, jo strong directional movement ka indicator hai. Isi tarah, Stochastic indicator phir se overbought zone mein hai, jo current bullish momentum ko reinforce karta hai. Lekin, RSI ka close examination bullish armor mein potential crack ko suggest karta hai. Indicator higher highs banane mein struggle kar raha hai, jo kuch underlying weakness ki taraf ishaara karta hai. Agar bulls control banaye rakhna chahte hain, to unhe GBP/JPY ko 198.59 ke support level ke upar rakhna hoga aur aakhir mein April 29th ka high 200.50 dobara test karna hoga. Agar 200.50 ke upar successful breakout hota hai, to yeh Japanese authorities se ek aur intervention trigger kar sakta hai, jo ke losses ki taraf le ja sakta hai. GBP/JPY ek critical juncture par hai, jahan bulls aur bears tug-of-war mein hain. Aane wale din pair ki direction aur uptrend ke momentum ko maintain karne mein crucial honge.