usd/jpy

Core Analysis of USD/JPY

Aaj main USD/JPY currency pair par tawajju de raha hoon, jo pichle haftay ke aakhir mein mukhtalif macroeconomic factors ki wajah se selling side ki taraf shift ho gaya. Japan ke naye Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ne ek accommodative monetary policy ko barqarar rakhne ka support diya hai, jo yen ko kamzor karta hai kyunki is se interest rates girte hain aur yen ki appeal kam hoti hai. Halankeh Japan ka retail trade August mein 2.8% ki year-on-year izafa dikhata hai, jo ke forecasted 2.3% se zyada hai, lekin yen ab bhi pressure mein hai. Behtar retail sales ne Japan ki dovish economic approach ki wajah se jo broader weakness hai, uska muqabla karne ke liye kaafi nahi hai, jo currency ke liye mazeed challenges ka ishaara kar raha hai.

Dusri taraf, US dollar ne resilience dikhayi hai, jo ke August ke liye latest US Core PCE Price Index ki wajah se hai, jisne Federal Reserve ke zyada aggressive rate-cutting cycle ki umeed ko barhaya. Halankeh agar Fed rate cuts ke sath aage badh sakta hai, toh future mein dollar ke kamzor hone ka imkaan hai, lekin short term mein currency ab bhi mazboot hai. Yeh strength iski safe-haven asset ke tor par role ki wajah se hai, jahan Japan ki dovish stance aur US ki relatively stable economic outlook ke darmiyan ka tafreeq USD/JPY dynamics ko asar انداز karta hai. Aane wale waqt mein, agar US data economic robustness ki taraf ishaara kare, toh US dollar yen ke muqablay mein supported rahega.








Price Levels and Market Dynamics

141.83 level ka retest ho sakta hai. Is ke ilawa, bearish support level 147.50 ki taraf girne par buying opportunity mil sakti hai. USD/JPY pair 139.59 tak nahi gir raha, lekin main isay entirely kharij nahi karta, kyunki downtrend abhi bhi dominant hai. Is waqt koi immediate targets nahi hain kyunki price sirf 140.17 se neeche nahi gayi, balki 140.00 level ke neeche bhi gir gayi, halankeh isne is move ko sustain karne mein nakami hasil ki, jo false breakout ka ishaara hai. Kal market ne acha recovery dekha, jo ke low se takreeban 300 points ka izafa tha, lekin pichle girawat ko dekhte hue, yeh ab bhi kaafi nahi hai. Aaj focus dollar aur Fed par hai, jahan uncertainty hai ke rate kitna gir sakta hai—market ki umeed hai ke 0.5 ka reduction hoga. Officials ke bayan bhi critical honge. Filhal meri position neutral hai, lekin mujhe lagta hai ke 135 ki taraf wapas aana mumkin hai, aur main wahan buying par ghor kar sakta hoon, khaaskar chhoti potential stop ki wajah se.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

USD/JPY ke D1 time frame par, yeh currency pair ek interesting price action dikhata hai, jo ke traders ke liye ahem hai jab market agle trading session mein dakhil hota hai. Pair ki ongoing movements macroeconomic data aur technical levels ke zariye shape ho rahi hain jo price direction ko define karti hain. Aaj ka analysis is baat par markaz hai ke kya yeh pair apni downward trajectory ko barqarar rakhega aur traders ko key support levels, khaaskar 144.20 ke mark, jo ke abhi ke current price se neeche hai, kaise approach karna chahiye.

Recent sessions mein USD/JPY ne thodi kamzori dikhayi hai, jo largely strong Japanese yen aur US economic factors jese inflation reports aur Federal Reserve ke interest rate policies ki wajah se hai. Upper levels ko chhune ke baad, pair retrace hona shuru ho gaya hai, jo ke short term mein bearish trend create kar raha hai. Agar yeh downward movement continue karta hai, toh traders 143.62 support zone par nazar rakhain ge, jo ke USD/JPY ke agle phase ko define karne mein ahem role ada kar sakta hai.







Macro Factors and Market Sentiment

USD/JPY pair dono US aur Japanese monetary policy shifts ke liye sensitive hai. US side se, agar koi future interest rate hikes ya dovish stance Federal Reserve se aati hai, toh yeh US dollar ki strength ko kaafi asar انداز kar sakti hai. Jabke Japanese yen ko safe-haven flows aur Bank of Japan ki monetary policy ne support kiya hai. In macroeconomic factors mein koi bhi tabdeeli USD/JPY ko ya to mazid strong ya weak bana sakti hai, depending on market ke interpretation par.

Daily chart par USD/JPY ki price action yeh suggest karti hai ke traders ko ihtiyat se kaam lena chahiye jab pair key support level 143.62 ke qareeb aaye. Agar bearish momentum jari rehta hai aur price is level se neeche break karta hai, toh yeh mazid decline ke liye rasta khol sakta hai. Lekin agar pair 144.40 se upar hold karne mein kamiyab ho jata hai, toh buyers ke liye ek moka ho sakta hai ke woh control wapas hasil karen aur prices ko upar push karen. Dono scenarios mein, technical indicators aur fundamental factors ko qareebi nazar se dekhna ahem hoga taake informed trading decisions liye ja saken aglay sessions mein.

Main USD/JPY currency pair ke dynamic pricing behavior ko real-time mein dekh raha tha, aur main is waqt dollar-yen pair ko four-hour chart par analyze kar raha hoon. Yeh pair barh raha tha jab second profit-taking ka amal buyer ne kiya, jo ke price ke growth ke saath actively apna profit le raha hai. Lekin jab previous correction highs ko update kiya gaya, to kisi khaas profit-taking ko nahi dekha gaya. Is ke bajaye, pair bina kisi rukawat ke barhta raha, aur phir week ke aakhir mein ek zyada bara pullback dekha gaya. Pair ne support level 160.756 ko touch kiya, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh support se barh kar resistance level 164.318 tak jaa sakta hai. Maine Friday ko resistance line of the ascending channel se breakdown area tak (jo ke kareeb 160.115 hai) bearish pullback ka theek andaza lagaya tha. Lekin short position open karne se pehle, maine channel ki resistance line ke qareeb ek "bullish doji" ka intezaar kiya, umeed thi ke ek puncture hoga aur phir pullback dekhne ko milega.

Ek theory bhi saamne aayi ke market mein latecomers ke long positions ke recruitment se mazeed long positions trend ke sath develop hoti hain. Is market perspective ke basis par, aur channel resistance zone mein ek bearish divergence ke dauran, maine apni sell limit ko chhupa diya aur ek trading setup ka intezaar kiya. Afsos ke expected movement samne nahi aayi, aur market pullback ke liye reverse ho gayi baghair channel resistance strength ko test kiye. Maine market mein jaldi entry nahi ki aur ehtiyaat se kaam liya. Natija yeh hua ke Friday ko bearish pullback ka sahi andaza lagane ke bawajood, maine trade nahi kiya aur market ke bahar se poori decline ko dekhta raha. Mujhe is baat ka afsos hai ke main 160.06 level ke neeche price ko secure nahi kar saka. Lekin main yeh bhi samajhta hoon ke shayad maine kuch zyada intezaar kiya aur sab kuch tezi se unfold nahi hua. Isliye, main abhi bhi apne downward movement ke outlook ko barqarar rakhta hoon, aur mera maanna hai ke ab humein growth cycle jo ke 154.57 se 161.97 tak gayi thi, usmein ek corrective movement par focus karna chahiye. Agar yeh reasoning theek hai, to humein 38.2 level (159.14) ka test dekhne ko milna chahiye.

USD/JPY/H4/160.35

Aaj humare paas bohot zyada high-impact news hain, jo kai currencies ko mutasir kar sakti hain. Iske alawa kuch low aur medium-impact news bhi hain. Is ilakay mein bohot zyada volatility honay ka imkaan hai, aur har wo currency pair jo niche di gayi currencies se related hai, usko closely dekhna zaroori hoga. Traders ko ye baat note karni chahiye aur aaj trading karte waqt apne money management skills ka ache tareeqay se istemal karna chahiye. Forex market mein ehtiyat se kaam lena bohot zaroori hota hai. Niche diye gaye image mein aaj ki available news ka zikar hai jo zyada maloomat de sakti hai.

USD/JPY/H4/160.35

Technical analysis aur chart patterns ko dekhte hue, is waqt ek buy entry lena samajhdari ka faisla lagta hai. Is trade ka immediate target 161.82 level hoga. Ye target recent price action aur resistance levels ko dekhte hue select kiya gaya hai. Risk ko ache se manage karne ke liye, stop loss ko 162.25 level par set karna behtareen rahega. Ye stop-loss level thoda upar hai current resistance se, takay agar trade anticipated nahi hota, to potential losses minimize ho sakein.

Kal, USD/JPY pair higher areas mein trade karta raha aur din ko 161.25 ke aas paas close kiya. Aaj, ye upar ki taraf move karta hua 161.65 price level tak chala gaya. Agar hourly chart ko dekha jaye, to ye notice kiya ja sakta hai ke USD/JPY moving average line MA (200) H4 ke upar 160.35 par trade kar raha hai. Chaar ghantay ke chart par bhi aisa hi lagta hai, jahan USD/JPY abhi MA (200) H4 ke upar trade kar raha hai. Is baat ko madde nazar rakhte hue, traders ko mashwara diya jata hai ke correction ke baad ek acha buy entry point dekhen. Niche diye gaye image aur chart se zyada maloomat mil sakti hai.

The stochastic curve is also moving in a bearish direction, indicating that the trend is bearish. Given the gap between the open price and the resistance level of the SMA5, the price may correct to this dynamic resistance level before continuing its decline. This scenario presents potential entry points for sell positions, which can be capitalized on by focusing on the likely decline in demand. An evening analysis of the H4 chart revealed a triangle pattern. There was a break in this pattern, resulting in a temporary price increase, which provided a glimmer of hope and a hint of direction. To confirm the northern path, the price needs to break through the upward reversal levels of H4, specifically overcoming the 161.55 level. This level is supported by a trend line from the low of the H4 zigzag and the remaining triangle support.

Ultimately, a break of the D1 price zone to the south will solidify my decision to sell. I will provide more details next week. According to my analysis and morning horoscope, I know I need to stop the deal at 160.75, as the potential win will be five times more significant than my position. If the market does not move towards my desired goals, I will exit and re-evaluate tomorrow. The coming day is always uncertain, and news events play a significant role in this uncertainty. It is better to be cautious than to risk losses. The USD strengthened following dovish comments from Fed's Williams and weak current account data from Japan, resulting in the USD/JPY closing up 36 pips at 161.30.

**Amreeki Dollar Ki Mazbooti Aur Market Ka Jaiza**

Amreeki dollar is trading hafte mein mazboot hua aur 50-week EMA tak pahuncha, jo ke US aur Japan ke darmiyan interest rate differential ki wajah se tha. Bank of Japan ne haal hi mein apni monetary policy ko mazeed sakht karne ki na-aqedrani ka izhar kiya, jab ke Amreeki non-farm payrolls report umeed se behtar aayi. Yeh factors carry trade returns ke liye munasib haalaat bana rahe hain, jahan traders kam interest waale currencies jaise ke yen mein udhaar le kar zyada munafa dene wale assets mein invest karte hain.

**Long Positions Ka Faidah**

Main is market mein kaafi waqt se hoon aur yeh rahega jab tak interest rate differential un logon ke haq mein hai jo long positions rakhte hain. Is environment mein choti-moti kamiyaan kharidari ke liye dilchasp mauqe faraham karti hain. Key support levels ¥145 aur ¥142 par hain, saath hi ek aham uptrend line bhi maujood hai.

**Trend Shift Ka Khauf**

Sirf ek asal fikr yeh hai ke agar pair ¥140 ke level se neeche girta hai, toh yeh ek mumkinah trend shift ka ishara hoga. Lekin jab tak hum ¥140 yen ke upar hain, mujhe lagta hai ke bullish outlook barqarar rahega.

**Lambi Muddat Ka Nazariya**

Lambi muddat mein, yeh hairani ki baat nahi hogi agar pair ¥160 ke level ko target kare, halankeh yeh ek gradual process hoga. Main aise move ki umeed nahin rakhta ke yeh jaldi ho, lekin lambi muddat mein yeh ek maqool maqasid hai. Iss darmiyan, main kisi bhi retreat ko apne position ko barhane ka mauqa samajhta hoon.

**Volatility Aur Growth Ka Rukh**

Halankeh volatility ki sambhavna hai, lekin agar hum ¥140 level ke upar support banae rakhte hain, toh overall trend ko barhne mein madad milegi. Traders in levels ko USD/JPY pair mein long jane ke liye mauqe ke tor par dekhenge.

Is tarah, mujhe lagta hai ke yeh waqt hai jab traders ko in mauqon ka faida uthane ki zaroorat hai, taake woh apne portfolios ko behtar bana saken aur market ke rukh ka sahi faida utha saken.

Yen ki qeemat mein izafa Bank of Japan ke interventions aur greenback ki overall kamzori ki wajah se ho raha hai. Daily chart par ek downward price movement dekha ja sakta hai. Hum Elliott wave theory ke mutabiq corrective wave C phase ka tajurba kar rahe hain. Computer analysis se sales signals zahir ho rahe hain. Iske nateejay mein RVI oscillator lines neechay ki taraf ja rahi hain aur MACD oscillator histograms positive se negative territory mein move kar rahe hain. Price mein girawat ho sakti hai agar ek false breakout ya poori bearish candlestick level 39.5 fibro correctional grid, jo ke 148.80 par hai, ka passage ho jaye.

H4 time frame analysis ke mutabiq:

Jab open position positive stage mein chali jati hai, to stop loss ko badhawa dene wale risks se bachne ke liye no loss par rearrange kiya jata hai. Iske ilawa, corrective wave C aam tor par sabse lambi hoti hai aur qeemat ko achi tarah se neeche le ja sakti hai. Apne trading plan par amal karein, jahan ek position per risk aapke total deposit ka 5% se zyada nahi hona chahiye. Jab tak aapke desired trading conditions chart par wazeh nahi hoti, tab tak hifazat ke liye intizaar karein. Central Bank of Japan ke asar ke madde nazar, is waqt is pair ki qeemat kareeban 148.00 ya is se thodi kam hai. Trading operations ke liye potential range 147.70 se 148.90 ke darmiyan hai. Dollar/yen ke liye 500 points se zyada ka movement expect kiya ja sakta hai. Magar, ye bhi zaroori hai ke mazboot support level 147.10 ke aas paas girawat ka ehtimal note kiya jaye, jo ke direct path ko khol sakta hai doosray strong support level 147.30 ke aas paas.

Yeh article trading ki techniques aur market analysis ko samajhne mein madadgar hai, khas tor par un logon ke liye jo forex market mein interested hain. Har waqt apne trading plan par amal karna aur central bank ke asraat ka dhyan rakhna zaroori hota hai.

USD/JPY currency pair is waqt ek aham mor par hai, jahan significant technical levels is ke short- to medium-term trajectory ka taayun kar sakti hain. Filhal, yeh pair mazboot support par hai 148.87 aur 146.60 ke qareeb, jab ke resistance 149.00 ke mark par hai. Yeh dynamic aik dilchasp manzar paish karta hai traders ke liye, jo in levels ko ghaur se dekh rahe hain taake future price movements ke potential signals samajh sakein.

Support levels market behavior ko samajhne mein ahem kirdar ada karte hain, kyun ke yeh wo price points hoti hain jahan buying interest zyada hota hai. Khaaskar 148.87 ka level, jo selling pressure ke bawajood kaafi resilience dikhata raha hai. Agar USD/JPY pair is level tak girta hai, toh ye buyers ko attract karega jo isay ek behtareen entry point samajhte hain, aur is ka natija aik rebound ki surat mein nikal sakta hai. Isi tarah, 146.60 ka level aur bhi ziada psychological barrier ke tor par kaam karta hai, us ki historical importance ke bawajood. Agar yeh support levels par price qaim rehne mein nakam hota hai, toh ek bara sell-off dekhne ko mil sakta hai, aur traders ek bearish trend ka faida uthane ke liye position bana sakte hain.

Resistance ki taraf dekha jaye toh, 149.00 ka level USD/JPY ke liye aik mazboot challenge ke tor par khara hai. Yeh threshold ceiling ki tarah kaam kar raha hai, jo ke upward momentum ko rok raha hai. Agar pair is level ko break karne mein mushkil ka samna karta hai, toh yeh waning bullish momentum ka ishara de sakta hai, jo ke profit-taking aur ek retracement ka sabab ban sakta hai, jahan price wapas support areas ki taraf jata hai. In critical levels ke qareeb hone ka matlab yeh hai ke agar resistance break nahi hota, toh retracement ke liye ek wazeh risk-reward scenario dekhne ko milta hai.

Mazid, broader economic context is situation ko aur complex bana deta hai. Market kuch aham fundamental data releases ka intezar kar raha hai, khaaskar Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report ka. Yeh report U.S. economic health ka ek significant indicator hai aur historically USD/JPY pair ke movement par asar andaz hui hai. Agar NFP ka result strong aata hai, toh yeh U.S. dollar ko mazid taqat de sakta hai, bullish sentiment ko barha kar 149.00 resistance ko break karwa sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar report kamzor hoti hai, toh bearish pressure zyada ho sakti hai, aur pair aforementioned support levels tak push kar sakta hai.

U.S. monetary policy ke hawale se market sentiment bhi outlook ko complex banata hai. Federal Reserve ke interest rate decisions economic data se closely tied hote hain, aur traders kisi bhi policy shift ke indications par react kar sakte hain. Agar Fed ek zyada hawkish stance ka ishara deta hai, toh dollar mazid strong ho sakta hai, aur USD/JPY par upward pressure barh sakta hai. Dovish signals, khaaskar jab economic data disappoint karti hai, bearish sentiment ko fuel kar sakti hai.

Agle hafte ke liye market ke qareeb aate hue, USD/JPY pair significant volatility ke liye tayar hai. Technical levels ka interplay jo 149.00 resistance aur 148.87 aur 146.60 support par hai, price action ka taayun karega. Agar 149.00 se upar breakthrough hota hai, toh mazid gains ka darwaza khul sakta hai, jab ke 148.87 ke neeche girawat ek bara sell-off trigger kar sakti hai.

Traders ek complex scenario ko navigate kar rahe hain jab ke USD/JPY pair ek crossroads par hai. Support aur resistance levels ke darmiyan tension aur upcoming economic data releases mil kar market sentiment mein potential shifts ka sabab ban sakte hain. Jaisay jaisay hafta guzaray ga, focus in technical aur fundamental factors ke interplay par hoga, jo ke traders ke decisions ko guide karega is important market environment mein. Natija pair ke trajectory ko mutayen karega for the foreseeable future, aur market participants ke liye zaroori hoga ke wo vigilant aur adaptable rahein.

**USD/JPY Technical Analysis**

Yen ki taqat Bank of Japan ki interventions aur greenback ke overall kamzor hone ki wajah se barh gayi hai. Daily chart par price ka downward movement dekha ja sakta hai. Hum Elliott wave theory ke mutabiq corrective wave C phase ka samna kar rahe hain. Computer analysis bechne ke signals de raha hai. Natije ke tor par, RVI oscillator lines south ki taraf ja rahi hain, aur MACD oscillator histograms positive se negative territory mein shift ho rahe hain. Price shayad false breakout ya complete bearish candlestick level 39.5 ke fibo correctional grid, jo ke 148.80 hai, par gir sakti hai.

**H4 Time Frame Analysis:**

Jab open position positive stage mein chali jati hai, to stop loss ko rearrange karke no loss par le aana chahiye taake zyada risks se bacha ja sake. Iske ilawa, yeh corrective wave C aam tor par sab se lambi hoti hai aur isay achhi tarah neeche le ja sakti hai. Apne trading plan par amal karein, jahan per position ka risk aapke deposit ka 5% se zyada nahi hona chahiye. Jab tak aapka desired trading situation chart par nahi aata, tab tak aapko dekhte rehna chahiye jab tak masla saaf nahi hota. Japan ke Central Bank ka asar dekhte hue, is pair ka current price 148.00 ke aas paas ya thoda neeche hai. Trading operations ke liye potential range 147.70 se 148.90 ke beech hai. Dollar/yen ke liye 500 points se zyada ka movement expect kiya ja sakta hai. Lekin yeh zaroori hai ke strong support level ke 147.10 ke aas paas downward breakdown ka bhi khayal rakha jaye, jo ke ek seedha raasta khol sakta hai doosre strong support level 147.30 ki taraf.

US dollar trading week ke doran taqatwar hua aur 50-week EMA ko hit kiya, khas tor par US aur Japan ke darmiyan interest rate differential ki wajah se. Bank of Japan ne haal hi mein is baat ko mana kiya ke wo monetary policy ko mazeed sakt nahi kar sakte, jabke US non-farm payrolls report umeed se zyada behtar thi. Yeh factors carry trade returns ke liye favorable conditions bana rahe hain, jahan traders low-interest currencies jaise yen mein borrow karte hain taake higher-yielding assets mein invest kar sakein.

Main is market mein kaafi der se hoon aur jab tak interest rate differential un logon ke haq mein kaam karta hai jo long positions hold karte hain, yahan rehunga. Is environment mein short-term declines bechne ke liye achhe mauqe pradaan karte hain. Key support levels ¥145 aur ¥142 par hain, sath hi ek prominent uptrend line bhi hai. Sirf asal fikar yeh hogi agar pair ¥140 level ke neeche girti hai, jo ke possible trend shift ki taraf ishara karega. Lekin jab tak hum 140 yen ke upar hain, mujhe lagta hai bullish outlook barkarar rahega.

Is trading haftay ke doran, US dollar mazboot hua aur 50-week EMA tak pohanch gaya, jo ke asal mein US aur Japan ke darmiyan interest rate ka farq hai. Bank of Japan ne haal hi mein apni monetary policy ko mazid sakht karne ki naakamiyabi ka iqraar kiya, jabke US ka non-farm payrolls report bhi tasavvur se zyada mazboot aaya. In asbab ne carry trade returns ke liye favorable halat tayyar kiye hain, jahan traders low-interest currencies jaise ke yen mein udhar le kar zyada munafa dene wale assets mein invest karte hain.

Mujhe is bazar mein kaafi waqt ho gaya hai aur mein is mein rehne ka iraada rakhta hoon kyunki interest rate ka farq un logon ke haq mein hai jo long positions hold karte hain. Is halat mein short-term girawatain kharidari ke liye attractive mauqe faraham karti hain. Key support levels ¥145 aur ¥142 par hain, saath hi ek prominent uptrend line bhi maujood hai. Sirf ek asal chinta tab hogi agar jorh ¥140 level se neeche girta hai, jo ke ek mumkin trend shift ka ishara ho sakta hai. Lekin jab tak hum 140 yen ke upar hain, mujhe lagta hai ke bullish outlook barqarar rahega.

Lambi muddat mein, yeh koi hairani ki baat nahi hogi agar yeh jorh ¥160 level ko target kare, halanke yeh ek gradual process hoga. Mujhe aise move ki aas nahi hai qareeb ke mustaqbil mein, lekin lambi muddat ke liye yeh ek waqeek goal hai. Is dauran, mein kisi bhi girawat ko apni position barhane ka mauqa samjhta hoon. Halankeh volatility ke chances hain, lekin jab tak hum ¥140 level ke upar support ko barqarar rakhein, poora trend growth ki taraf jari rehna chahiye.

Traders in levels ko watch karte rahenge, taake USD/JPY jorh mein long positions lene ke mauqe mil sakein. Yeh haalatein batati hain ke market ab bhi bullish rahne ki sambhavnayein rakhta hai, jab tak key support levels ka khayal rakha jaye. Mera iraada hai ke is mauqe ka fayda uthate hue long positions mein izafa karun, taake main is momentum ka hissa ban sakun.Is trading haftay ke doran, US dollar mazboot hua aur 50-week EMA tak pohanch gaya, jo ke asal mein US aur Japan ke darmiyan interest rate ka farq hai. Bank of Japan ne haal hi mein apni monetary policy ko mazid sakht karne ki naakamiyabi ka iqraar kiya, jabke US ka non-farm payrolls report bhi tasavvur se zyada mazboot aaya. In asbab ne carry trade returns ke liye favorable halat tayyar kiye hain, jahan traders low-interest currencies jaise ke yen mein udhar le kar zyada munafa dene wale assets mein invest karte hain.

Mujhe is bazar mein kaafi waqt ho gaya hai aur mein is mein rehne ka iraada rakhta hoon kyunki interest rate ka farq un logon ke haq mein hai jo long positions hold karte hain. Is halat mein short-term girawatain kharidari ke liye attractive mauqe faraham karti hain. Key support levels ¥145 aur ¥142 par hain, saath hi ek prominent uptrend line bhi maujood hai. Sirf ek asal chinta tab hogi agar jorh ¥140 level se neeche girta hai, jo ke ek mumkin trend shift ka ishara ho sakta hai. Lekin jab tak hum 140 yen ke upar hain, mujhe lagta hai ke bullish outlook barqarar rahega.

Lambi muddat mein, yeh koi hairani ki baat nahi hogi agar yeh jorh ¥160 level ko target kare, halanke yeh ek gradual process hoga. Mujhe aise move ki aas nahi hai qareeb ke mustaqbil mein, lekin lambi muddat ke liye yeh ek waqeek goal hai. Is dauran, mein kisi bhi girawat ko apni position barhane ka mauqa samjhta hoon. Halankeh volatility ke chances hain, lekin jab tak hum ¥140 level ke upar support ko barqarar rakhein, poora trend growth ki taraf jari rehna chahiye.

Traders in levels ko watch karte rahenge, taake USD/JPY jorh mein long positions lene ke mauqe mil sakein. Yeh haalatein batati hain ke market ab bhi bullish rahne ki sambhavnayein rakhta hai, jab tak key support levels ka khayal rakha jaye. Mera iraada hai ke is mauqe ka fayda uthate hue long positions mein izafa karun, taake main is momentum ka hissa ban sakun.

### USD/JPY Technical Tahlil

Hello sabko! USDJPY aisa lagta hai ke kal ke movement ko dobara dohraane ki koshish kar raha hai. Yeh pair Wednesday ke trading mein 95 pips tak upar gaya. Market ka reaction ab bhi bohot positive hai, jo ke iski growth aur upar chadhne ka silsila jaari rakh raha hai. Is surat mein, buyers ke liye ye best mauka hai. Lekin, agar hum dekhein ke price kitni barh gayi hai, toh behtar hoga ke abhi kharidari na ki jaye. 148.10 level ke aas paas ek bullish engulfing demand zone hai, isliye wahan correction ka intezar karna zyada behtar rahega. Yeh kharidari ka plan USDJPY ke bullish trend ke saath hi hai.

Ab main USDJPY pair par nazar rakhunga kyunki yeh currency pair bearish potential dikhata hai. 148.50 par, price ne monthly supply area ko touch kiya, jiski wajah se bearish direction mein tabdeeli aayi. Pichle teen hafton se sellers ne USDJPY par dominan kiya hai, toh yeh hamare liye is trend ka peecha karne ka mauka hai. Is beech, RSI 147.10 area aur 147.50 FTR zone hamare nazdeek ke targets hain. Yeh targets abhi bhi kuch door hain, toh yahan abhi bhi sell karne ke mauqe hain. Yeh bearishness bohot gehri ho sakti hai, jo 148.40 ki consolidation area tak le ja sakti hai.

Sabse important sawal hai, entry ka point kahan hoga? Yeh dekhna acha hoga ke choti time frame par kya nazar aata hai.

H4 time frame par downtrend market structure dikhai de raha hai, jahan candles lagataar lower lows bana rahi hain. Iske ilawa, aakhri candle ne demand area 149.90 ko break kiya, jo ke gehri girawat ki confirmation hai. Is confirmation ke saath, main USDJPY bechne mein zyada confident hoon. Buy zone abhi ke swap zone level (148.80) par khul sakta hai, ya hum thodi si upar ki taraf correction ka intezar kar sakte hain jo FTR 148.90 (gray zone) ke range mein ho, pehle bechne ka zone kholne se pehle.

Is tarah se, USDJPY ke liye trading strategy tayar karne mein humein entry points aur market ke structure par dhyan dena hoga, taake hum behtareen decision le sakein.

### USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Yen ki taqat Bank of Japan ke interventions aur greenback ke overall kamzor hone ki wajah se barh gayi hai. Daily chart par humein price ka downward movement nazar aata hai. Elliott wave theory ke mutabiq, hum corrective wave C phase ka samna kar rahe hain. Computer analysis sales signals ki taraf ishara kar raha hai. Is natije mein, RVI oscillator ki lines neeche ki taraf ja rahi hain, jabke MACD oscillator histograms positive se negative territory mein move kar rahe hain. Price ek false breakout ya puri bearish candlestick level 39.5 ke complete passage ke saath gir sakti hai, jo fibo correctional grid par 148.80 hai.

### H4 Time Frame Analysis

Jab open position positive stage mein enter karti hai, toh stop loss ko no loss par set karna chahiye takay risk mein izafa na ho. Iske ilawa, yeh corrective wave C aksar sabse lambi hoti hai aur kaafi neeche tak le ja sakti hai. Apne trading plan par amal karna bohot zaroori hai, jahan per position ka risk aapke deposit ka 5% se zyada nahi hona chahiye. Jab tak chart par desired trading situation nazar nahi aati, aapko dekhne mein rehna chahiye, jab tak masla wazeh nahi hota.

Japan Central Bank ke asar ko dekhte hue, is waqt is pair ki current price takreeban 148.00 ya is se thodi kam hai. Trading operations ke liye potential range 147.70 se 148.90 ke beech hai. Dollar/yen ke liye 500 points se zyada movement ki umeed ki ja sakti hai. Lekin yeh zaroori hai ke aap 147.10 ke aas paas ke strong support level ke downward breakdown ki sambhavna ko nazar mein rakhein, jo ek seedha raasta khol sakta hai dusre strong support level 147.30 ki taraf.

Yeh important hai ke traders apne trading strategies ko aise mawaqay par adjust karein, jahan price action ki direction clear ho. Is waqt market ki halat aur economic data releases par nazar rakhna bhi bohot zaroori hai, kyunki yeh factors price movements ko khud bhi asar daal sakte hain. Isliye, trading karne se pehle sab kuch achhe se jaanch lena chahiye aur sirf tab hi positions lena chahiye jab market conditions aapki strategy ke mutabiq ho.

USD/JPY ka agla hafta technically dekha jaye to zyada tar bearish movements ka hawala de raha hai, kyun ke guzishta hafta bearish weekly candle ke saath band hua. Daily time frame ke pattern ke mutabiq, price iss waqt 148.80 par atki hui hai aur ismein neeche ki taraf movement ho rahi hai. Price Bollinger band ke neeche wale hisse mein hai aur koshish kar raha hai ke EMA 25 aur 7 ke pass aaye, jo ke Bollinger daily middle 148.20 ke aas paas hai. Stochastic indicator ke mutabiq, ek strong long-term bearish trend ka asar nazar aa raha hai.

H4 time frame ke pattern ke mutabiq, aakhri trading session mein thoda increase dekha gaya lekin yeh Bollinger middle ke pass reject ho gaya. Abhi bhi price EMA 25 ke neeche hai, jo is baat ka izhar karta hai ke bearish trend jari reh sakta hai. US Treasury rate mein thoda pullback hone ke bawajood, USD/JPY ne recent bearish movement dikhayi hai. Agar yields neeche girte hain to US Dollar ko Japanese Yen ke muqable mein aur zyada pressure ka samna karna par sakta hai.

USD/JPY ka American interest rates, khas taur par 10-year yield ke saath mazboot taluq hai. FOMC ki hawkish monetary policy, jo inflation ke barhawa ko control karne ke liye hai, uske natayej mein 10-year yield zyada tar saal ke dauran upward trend mein raha. May ke pehle hisse ke dauran, US Dollar ne Japanese Yen ke muqable mein multi-year highs ko touch kiya tha, jo ke long-term rate hikes ki wajah se tha.

COT reports ke mutabiq, non-commercial traders ke ek group ne 148.20 par buy positions open kiye aur 147.30 par sell positions ko close kiya tha 22 June ke hafte ke duran. Iska matlab yeh nikalta hai ke traders zyada bullish ho rahe hain, aur pair dheere dheere buy karna shuru ho gaya hai. Filhal market mein 147.65 par open buy positions aur 148.35 par open sell positions maujood hain. Magar, traders ka overall sentiment ab bhi bearish hai.

Yeh bearish sentiment is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke USD/JPY mein aane wale dinon mein aur girawat dekhi ja sakti hai. Trading ke hawale se, yeh zaroori hai ke technical aur fundamental aspects dono par nazar rakhi jaye taake risk ko dhang se manage kiya ja sake.

USD/JPY

Technically, USDJPY ka aglay haftay ka rujhan bearish ho sakta hai, kyun ke guzishta hafta ek bearish weekly candle ke sath khatam hua tha. Daily timeframe pattern se nazar aata hai ke price abhi 148.80 par atki hui hai apne decline ke liye; price abhi low Bollinger par hai aur Ema 25 aur 7 aur Bollinger daily middle 148.20 par correct karne ki koshish kar rahi hai. Stochastic ke lehaz se, aik mazboot long-term bearish trend hai. H4 timeframe pattern ke mutabiq, aakhri trading session mein izafa Bolinger ke middle mein reject ho gaya. Abhi tak price Ema 25 ke neeche hai, is liye bearish trend jari reh sakta hai. US Treasury rate mein thoda sa pullback hone ke bawajood, USDJPY halya tor par bearish raha hai. Agar yields aur girti hain, to USD ko Japanese Yen ke muqable mein mazeed pressure ka samna ho sakta hai. USDJPY ka American interest rates, khaaskar 10-year yield ke sath mazboot ta’aluq hai. FOMC ki hawkish monetary policy ke natayej mein, jo ke inflation ke barhawan ke khilaf hai, 10-year yield zyada tar saal mein uptrend par raha hai. May ke pehle hise mein, lambe arsay ke rate hikes ki wajah se US dollar ne Japanese Yen ke muqable mein multi-year highs ko chooa tha. COT reports ke mutabiq, non-commercial traders ke aik group ne 148.20 par buy positions kholi aur 147.30 par sell positions band kiya tha jun 22 ko khatam hone wale haftay mein. Is se hum yeh nateeja nikal saktay hain ke traders ab is pair ke liye zyada bullish ho gaye hain, aur yeh pair dheere dheere buy ki taraf barh raha hai. Market mein is waqt 147.65 open buy positions aur 148.35 open sell positions hain. Traders ka overall sentiment abhi bhi bearish hai

USD/JPY Price Move Studies
Hum USD/JPY currency pair ki daynamik pricing behavior ka waqt par jaiza le rahe hain. Hum USD/JPY par nazar rakhte hain, kyunki kharidari ka amal abhi bhi ek aham wajah hai, jaise ke aakhri session mein dekha gaya. Bara pehlu par, yeh pair Hourly Candle ke andar hai, jahan bullish momentum barh raha hai. Filhal, price 147.43 ke ird gird hai, jab ke agla reference point lower support 145.27 hai. Kharidari ke liye ek priority tab samajhi ja sakti hai jab resistance 141.46 ko tod diya jaye, jahan se ek temporary local girawat ho sakti hai. Agar yeh pair Monday ko 149.51 ka level todta hai, to pehla target 151.81 hoga, jahan se upward movement aage barh sakti hai. US dollar yen ke muqable mein taqat hasil kar raha hai, jo ke mazboot data se madad le raha hai, jo is asset par bharosa dikhata hai. Is wajah se, USD/JPY ki value barhne ki umeed hai. Neeche ki taraf, bechne ke liye 145.81 se neeche girna zaroori hoga, jo ke 141.67 aur 139.59 tak aur girawat ki taraf le ja sakta hai.



Agar price 143.47 se upar breakout karta hai, to ek buy signal mil sakta hai; is surat mein is level ke neeche protective stop rakhna behtar hai. Agar price 144.70 ke critical low tak wapas aata hai, to yeh bullish momentum ki kamzori ko darshata hai. Short position ke liye signal tab milega jab price is level ke neeche consolidate kare. Halankeh pair ki girawat waise nahi hui jaisa socha gaya tha, main ab bhi umeed karta hoon ke Monday se upward movement shuru hogi. Price pehle ek ascending channel ke andar tha, phir neeche gira. Lekin girawat mein kisi bhi tarah ka izafa nahi hua, aur price wapas upar aaya. Main umeed karta hoon ke pair dobara ascending channel mein wapas aakar 165.50 ki taraf barhega. Trading week ke liye USD/JPY ka price range 148.01-149.51 ke andar rehne ki umeed hai, jo ke uptrend ke jaari rehne ki sambhavnayein mazboot karta hai.