gbp/usd

Rozana qeemat ka chart dekhtay huay, aik wazeh takneeki surat-e-haal samnay aati hai, jis mein asaas ka qeemat ooper neechay ki taraf lehrati hai jese samandar ki lehrain. Qeemat Fibonacci retracement levels ke saath talluq rakhti hai is doran. Qeemat nedai haftay mein 61.8% Fibonacci level say bounce hui, aik qeemat ka nichla hissa banate hue, jisse keh aik mohtay darkhwast hai keh qeemat ka aage chal kar ooper ki taraf ja sakta hai. Pichlay haftay mein, asaas ka qeemat 23.6% Fibonacci level ke ooper mustafeed hoti rahi, jo keh isay ooper ki taraf le jane ke liye madadgar sabit hua aur isay ooper ki taraf ke unchaai tak pohanch gaya. Is par mabni tawajjuh yeh hai keh qeemat ka mustaqbil mein ooper ki taraf janay ka imkan hai, mohtemam haftay mein 1.2890 ke darjay tak pohanch sakta hai. Lekin yeh bullish tajwez manzoor nahin kiya ja sakta agar qeemat 23.6% Fibonacci level ke neechay chaar trading ghanton tak mustaqil dair tak gir jaye.

Bari market ke karobarati numaindun ki riwayati se, aik note iForex Europe se, jo ke aik forex trading company hai, darj kia gaya hai, jis mein zikr hai keh America ka dollar izafa kar raha hai, aham tour par mazeed Treasury yields ke barhne ke bais. Treasury bond yields mein izafa ka zikar sarkari Treasury bonds ki khaas farahmi ka hai jab ke sarkar apnay waidey maali programs ko chalane ke liye qarz barhata rahi hai. Qaum ka qarz ka bojh ek bebas gati se barh raha tha, jo ke qarz lenay ke daamon ko lazmi tor par barha raha tha. Lekin America ki hukoomat ke nisf-e-nafas policies ne bhi mukhtalif asrat paida kiye hain, jo ke dollar ke haal ki behtareen performance ke peechay aik ahem kirdar ada kartay hain. Torsten Slok, Apollo ke sarfeen ma'ashiyat, wazir-e-aala, ki wazahat karte hain: "Mashriqiyat ab bhi itni mazboot kyun hai? Is liye ke maali policyat aik numaya pichal panchhi ki tarah hawa dein, jab ke asan maali shirait ne federal reserve ke dar-e-faarar izafa karne ke tajawiz kiye hain." Slok mazeed yeh kehte hain keh America ki federal policy "tasaffi" hai chip legislation, inflation control act, aur infrastructure law ki wajah se. "Natije ke tor par, umeed hai ke rozgar mein izafa aur mehngaai 2024 mein barh jaye gi." Wo yeh bhi izafa karte hain keh Federal Reserve 2025 tak dar-e-faarar ko kam nahin karay ga.

GBPUSD Ke Price Action Ka Jaiza

Salam dosto, main GBPUSD currency pair ki trend par guftagu karunga. GBPUSD pair ne trading week ko bullish candle ke saath khatam kiya, jo bullish momentum ke nishane dikha raha hai. Daily time frame par, currency pair ek saaf uptrend mein hai, jo zyada highs aur zyada lows banata ja raha hai. Jumma (May 31) ko qeemat thori si mazeed barh gayi aur significant supply area ke qareeb move hua, jabke bears ek aur bechne ka mauqa dhund rahe the. Meri tajziya ke mutabiq, bullish momentum phir se 1.2800 ke resistance level par rok diya jayega.

Mausam ke 1.2738 ke mojudah qeemat se, qeemat ko mazeed barhne ka intezar hai aur supply area se mukhalif ho sakta hai. Agar qeemat aakhir mein 1.2800 resistance level ke neeche lamba samay tak stable rehti hai, to qeemat 1.2500 level ki taraf move karegi. Mazeed, 1.2500 support level ke neeche ek breakout sellers ki market mein taqat ko tasdiq karega, ek potential bearish rally ka ishara hoga aur agla target 1.2300 support level hoga. Isi tarah, agar 1.2300 support ko bhi tor diya jata hai, to pair apni potential girawat ko agle support level 1.2100 ki taraf barha sakta hai.

Reverse trading mein, 1.2800 ke upar tor diya gaya aur stable consolidation meri bullish tasalsul ko rad kar dega, aur currency pair ka outlook poori tarah badal dega. Agar pair is level ko qaim rakhta hai, to Bulls ka control lena mumkin hai, agle resistance ko 1.2890 ke aas paas dekha ja sakta hai.

Risk management ke liye, main ek stop loss 1.2820 ke important resistance level ke upar rakhunga, taake potential upside risks ke khilaf hifazat ho. Ek take profit target umeed ki gayi kam se kam 1.2500 level par set kiya jayega.

Maujooda GBPUSD trading scenario mein kai takneeki nishanat shamil hain jo iski keemat ke harkaton mein izafa faraham karte hain. Resistance levels, jahan keemat ko neechay ka dabao mehsoos hota hai, aur support levels, jahan keemat ko oopar ki taraf momentum milta hai, bazaar ke rawayya ko samajhne ke liye ahem hain. Ab tak, GBPUSD ke samne 1.2800 ke aas paas ahem resistance hai, ek level jo pehle bhi test kiya gaya hai, jabke support 1.2660 ke qareeb milta hai. Ye levels traders ke liye ahem hain jo potenshal dakhilay aur bahar nikalne ke points ka pehchan karna chahte hain. RSI (Relative Strength Index) jo ke momentum aur potenshal overbought ya oversold shorat ko nishanay bataata hai, ek mojooda reading se ishaara deta hai ke currency pair na to overbought hai na hi oversold, jo ek balance shuda bazaar ke jazbat ko dikhata hai. Zigzag indicator, jo ke minor price movements ko filter karke price trends ko pehchaan mein madad deta hai, ek haal hi mein ek oopar ki taraf se neeche ki taraf shift ko dikhata hai, jo ke price ke upper boundary ko test karke lower support ki taraf ja raha hai.

In takneeki nishanat ke ilawa, EMA (Exponential Moving Average) aur Bollinger Bands mazeed wazehaat faraham karte hain. EMA, khaaskar 50-period EMA, ek dynamic support aur resistance level ke tor par kaam karta hai, jahan mojooda keemat is line ke aas paas ghoom rahi hai, jo ke kharidar aur farokht karne wale ke darmiyan ek jhagra ko dikhata hai. Bollinger Bands, jo bazaar ki ghairat aur peechle trades ke muqable mein keemat ke darajat ko napte hain, ek contraction dikhate hain, jo ek potenshal breakout ki ishaara hai. Demand Index, jo ke keemat aur volume ko mila kar kharidar aur farokht karne ke dabao ko napta hai, ishaara deta hai ke kharidar haal hi mein kuch farokht karne walon ke muqable mein halka pehlu hasil kar chuke hain, jaisa ke hara moving average line se dekha gaya hai. Stochastic Oscillator, ek momentum indicator jo security ki khaas band keemat ko us ke kuch arse ke darajat ke muqable mein tarteeb deta hai, is manzar ko bhi thora sa kharidarun ko favor karta hai. Average True Range (ATR), jo bazaar ki ghairat ka nishana hai, maqool ghairat dikhata hai, jo ke keemat ke harkat wazeh nahi hain, lekin traders ko sudden tabdiliyon ka ehtiyaat rakhna chahiye. Overall, takneeki setup ek ehtiyaat bhara lekin potenshal bullish manzar dikhata hai agar keemat ahem support level ke upar qaim reh paati hai aur resistance ko paar kar leti hai, jo ke ek upward trend ka jari rakhne ka ishaara karega.

Ek rozana ke keemat chart par, aik wazeh technical pattern nazar aata hai, jo dastiyab maal ke keemat ko aik lehr ki tarah oopar neeche harkat mein dikhata hai. Is doraan keemat Fibonacci retracement levels ke saath interect karti hai. Hal hi mein, keemat ne 61.8% Fibonacci level se bounce kiya, aik keemat ka nichla hissa bana kar, jo ke aik moqami wapas ke upward trend ki taraf ishara karta hai. Pichle haftay mein, maal ki keemat ne 23.6% Fibonacci level ke upar isthir ho gayi, jise support ke tor par istemal kiya gaya takay lehr ki sab se buland nukt tak pohanch sake. Is ke sath, umeed hai ke keemat ke agle haftay mein ooper ki taraf chalne jaari rahegi, mumkin hai ke 1.2890 level tak pohanch jaye. Magar, agar keemat 23.6% Fibonacci level ke neeche chaar trading hours tak mukhtasir waqt ke liye gir jaati hai, to yeh bullish nazar andaz ho sakti hai.

Bari market ki performance ke mutaliq, aik note iForex Europe, aik foreign exchange trading company, se, jo kehta hai ke US dollar ke qeemat mein izafa hua hai, zyadatar Treasury yields barhne ki wajah se. Ye Treasury bond yields mein izafa, US Treasury bonds ke ahem intizam ko zikar karta hai jabke hakoomat apne nafsiati maali programs ko fund karne ke liye qarz ko barhata hai. Qaum ke qarz ka bojh naqabil bardasht darja par barh raha tha, be natiq ye qarz lenay ke intezam ko buland karta tha. Magar, US hakoomat ke wusati policies ne bhi qowat afzaai ki hai, jo ke dollar ke halq mein behtareen nataij dikhata hai. Apollo ke chief economist Torsten Slok ka kehna hai: "Mashriqi ka mahol itna mazboot kyun hai? Is wajah se ke nafsiati policies aik numaya hawa banaye rakhte hain, jabke Federal Reserve ke interest rate hikes ko aasan shirae mukhtasir karte hain." Slok further notes ke US nafsiati policies "mehfooz" hain chip legislation, the inflation control act, aur infrastructure law ke wajah se. "Is natije mein umeed hai ke rozgaar ki tezi aur mehangaai 2024 mein izafa karegi." Wo yeh bhi kehta hai ke Federal Reserve 2025 tak interest rates ko kam nahi karegi.

GBP/USD ka currency instrument abhi 1.2710 ke aas-paas hai jabke sarmayadar UK ke inflation report aur US Federal Reserve (FOMC) ki meeting ke minutes ka intezar kar rahe hain. Market participants ko naye signals chahiyein kyunke Federal Reserve officials se mixed messages mil rahi hain. Governor Christopher Waller, jo aam tor par higher rates ke haami hain, ne kaha ke abhi aur interest rate increases ki zarurat nahi dekh rahe. Magar, unhone kaha ke wo strong data chahenge pehle ke Federal Reserve ki workforce ko kam karne pe razi hon. Doosri taraf, Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic ne aggressive rate hikes ke khilaf warning di hai. Unka kehna hai ke dheere approach behtar hai taake inflation dobara barh na jaye.

UK mein, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey ne future mein rate cut ke imkaan ka ishara diya. Unhein umeed hai ke April ke data mein inflation giregi, jo ke Wednesday ko release hoga. Forecast ke mutabiq, April ka Consumer Price Index (CPI) 2.1% rise dikhayega, jabke pichle report mein ye 3.2% thi. Annual inflation rate ki umeed hai ke March ke 4.2% se gir kar April mein 3.6% ho jayegi. Higher inflation data se BOE ka rate cut delay ho sakta hai. Ulta, agar report low aayi to is saal ke baad borrowing costs kam ho sakti hain. Aane wala data yeh tay karega ke rate cut kab hoga.

Technical tor par, GBP/USD pair ne apni 200-day simple moving average (SMA) ko cross kiya hai, jo encouraging hai. Magar, yeh abhi bhi ek short-term bearish trend line ke rukawat ka samna kar rahi hai. 50-day SMA lagbhag 1.2590 ke kareeb hai, jo additional support offer kar raha hai. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator weak momentum dikhata hai. Yeh breakout line ke upar hai magar abhi bhi zero se niche hai. Stochastic oscillator ek bullish crossover ke baad barh raha hai, jo pair ke value mein potential increase ka ishara hai. Agar GBP/USD diagonal resistance near 1.2746 ko break karta hai, to yeh 1.2791 ke aas-paas aur resistance face karega. Is level ko surpass karne se outlook neutral ho jayega. Niche ke taraf, agar yeh 1.2590 se neeche girta hai to selling shuru ho jayegi.

GBP/USD



GBP/USD Ka Overview
GBP/USD, jo "Cable" ke naam se bhi jana jata hai, British Pound Sterling (GBP) aur US Dollar (USD) ka ek bohot zyada trade hone wala currency pair hai. Yeh pair United Kingdom aur United States ke darmiyan economic strength ka aik indicator hai. Jab UK ki economy mazboot hoti hai, to GBP/USD ki value upar jaati hai, lekin agar US Dollar mazboot hota hai, to yeh pair neeche gir sakta hai. Yeh pair forex market mein liquidity aur volatility ki wajah se traders ke liye bohot important hota hai.

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD ke technical analysis mein support aur resistance levels, moving averages, aur trend lines ka study karna bohot zaroori hota hai. Moving Averages jaise 50-day aur 200-day, trend ko samajhne ke liye helpful hote hain. Agar GBP/USD ki price in moving averages se upar chal rahi hai, to yeh ek bullish trend ko indicate karti hai. Lekin agar price moving averages ke neeche hai, to yeh bearish trend ko suggest karta hai.

Agar hum current scenario dekhein, to agar GBP/USD ka support level 1.2200 par hai, aur yeh level break hota hai, to price further decline kar ke 1.2000 tak ja sakti hai. Lekin agar price is support ko hold kar leti hai, to yeh phir se 1.2500 ke resistance zone ko test kar sakti hai. Iske liye price action aur candlestick patterns ko dekhna bohot zaroori hai.

Fundamental Factors

Fundamental factors GBP/USD par directly asar dalte hain. Bank of England (BoE) aur United States Federal Reserve (Fed) ki monetary policies, interest rate decisions, aur inflation data is pair ke movement mein bohot important hote hain. Agar BoE interest rates ko barhata hai to GBP ki demand barh sakti hai, jo GBP/USD ko bullish banata hai. Wahi agar Fed aggressive monetary policy follow karta hai, to Dollar mazboot hota hai, jo GBP/USD ko bearish bana sakta hai.

UK ke economic indicators jaise GDP growth, employment data, aur inflation rate ko bhi closely dekhna zaroori hota hai. Wahi US ke data jaise Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) aur CPI reports Dollar ki strength ko influence karte hain, jo GBP/USD ke trend ko shape dete hain.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment ka GBP/USD ki volatility par bohot asar hota hai. Risk-on sentiment mein traders Pound prefer karte hain, jo GBP/USD ko upar push karta hai. Lekin agar market mein uncertainty ho, jese geopolitical tensions ya recession ka khauf, to investors US Dollar ko safe-haven asset samajh kar buy karte hain, jo GBP/USD ki value ko neeche le jata hai.

Global events jaise US-China trade tensions, Brexit developments, aur global economic data bhi GBP/USD par asar dalte hain. Iss liye traders ke liye updated rahna aur news events par nazar rakhna bohot important hota hai.

Conclusion

GBP/USD ek complex aur volatile currency pair hai jo technical aur fundamental analysis ke sath sath market sentiment se bhi deeply influenced hota hai. Agar aap is pair mein trading karna chahte hain, to aapko market ke technical indicators, central bank policies, aur global economic events par focus karna chahiye. Is tarah aap market ki movement ko better samajh kar profitable trading decisions le sakte hain.

GBP/USD currency pair filhal 1.3068 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai, jahan ek bearish trend dekhne ko mil raha hai jo dhire dhire aage barh raha hai. Lekin kuch nishaniyan yeh darshati hain ke agle dino mein kaafi volatility dekhne ko mil sakti hai.

Foreign exchange markets mein, GBP/USD pair ko bohot nazar se dekha jata hai kyunki yeh dono mulkon, yani United Kingdom aur United States, ki political aur economic developments ke liye bahut sensitive hai. Traders aur analysts aksar economic data releases, central bank policy decisions, aur geopolitical events ko jaanchte hain jo in currencies ke qeematon par asar daal sakti hain.

GBP/USD pair mein maujooda bearish jazbaat kai wajah se hain. Pehli wajah yeh hai ke Brexit negotiations ke chakkar mein uncertainty hai, jo UK ki economy par bura asar daal raha hai. Iske ilawa, economic data releases jaise GDP growth figures, inflation rates, aur employment reports bhi market ka jazbaat badal sakte hain.

Aage dekhte hue, kuch potential catalysts hain jo GBP/USD pair mein significant movement ka sabab ban sakte hain. Ek aham waqiya jo dekhne ko milega woh hai Brexit se mutalliq naye developments, jaise trade negotiations ya regulatory changes. Yeh waqiat aksar currency pair mein volatility ko janm dete hain jab market participants naye maloomat par react karte hain.

Iske alawa, Bank of England (BoE) aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ki monetary policy decisions bhi GBP/USD exchange rate par asar daal sakti hain. Interest rate hikes ya cuts, saath hi quantitative easing programs mein tabdeeliyan, investor confidence ko asar karte hain aur pound sterling aur US dollar ki muqabilat par asar daal sakte hain.

Geopolitical tensions ya ghaflati economic data releases bhi currency markets mein volatility ko badha sakte hain, jo GBP/USD pair mein tez movement ka sabab ban sakta hai. Traders aur investors aksar technical analysis tools aur indicators ka istemal karte hain taake wo historical price patterns aur market trends ke buniyad par potential entry aur exit points ko shanaakht kar saken.

Is liye, GBP/USD pair ka analysis karte waqt in tamam factors ko dekhna bohot zaroori hai, kyunki yeh sab mil kar currency market ke liye ek complex lehar ka sabab ban sakte hain.

British pound ki hararat mein aaj jyaada tabdeeli nahi aayi hai, jabke yeh ek bohot hi pur sukoon hafte guzar raha hai. European session ke dauran, GBP/USD 1.3071 par trade kar raha hai, jo ke 0.10% ki choti si izafa dikhata hai, lekin yeh is waqt ki low hai. UK ki ma'ashi surat-e-haal ne August mein halki si behtari dikhayi hai, jab yeh 0.2% mahine dar mahine barh gaya, jabke June aur July mein koi izafa nahi hua. Yeh tafseelat umeed ke mutabiq hain, lekin pound ki taraf se koi khaas react nahi hua.

Services, construction, aur manufacturing ke sector ne behtari ka saboot diya hai, jab UK ki ma'ashiyat mehsoos tor par taraqqi kar rahi hai. Salana buniyad par GDP 1% tak barh gaya hai, jo ke pehle 0.9% tha, lekin yeh bazar ki tawaqqoat 1.4% se kam hai. Yeh halki si behtari government ke liye aik acha waqt hai, kyunki wo 30 October ko apna autumn budget jari karne wali hai. Government ko umeed hai ke Bank of England ma'ashi taraqqi ko support karne ke liye darja hiran ko kaatne ka silsila jaari rakhega.

Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, ne kaha ke Britain ki kamzor ma'ashiyat ko tezi se sudharna "priority number one" hai. Bank of England ne is naye silsile ki pehli darja hiran ki katoti August mein ki thi, lekin September mein woh kisi action se baaz rahe. Agla meeting 7 November ko hai, aur is se pehle UK inflation aur employment data jari hoga, jo yeh tay karega ke kya bank policymakers ek aur quarter-point ki katoti par razi hote hain ya nahi.

Is hafte ke akhri din, US bhi September ka producer price index (PPI) jari kar raha hai. Umeed hai ke headline PPI 1.7% y/y tak gir jayega, jabke August mein yeh 1.6% tha. Halankeh base rate ka izafa hone ki umeed hai, jo ke 2.7% tak barhne ki tawaqqo hai, jabke August mein yeh 2.4% tha. Inflation ko kaafi had tak control mein aane ke baad, Federal Reserve ka fokus ab employment par shift ho gaya hai. Phir bhi, agar PPI ka koi ghalat reading aata hai, to is ka asar US dollar ki hararat par ho sakta hai.

GBP/USD ab 1.3058 ke resistance ko test kar raha hai. Iske upar 1.3095 ka resistance hai, jabke neeche 1.3023 aur 1.2986 ke agle support levels hain.

GBP/USD currency pair filhal 1.3068 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai, jahan ek bearish trend dekhne ko mil raha hai jo dhire dhire aage barh raha hai. Lekin kuch nishaniyan yeh darshati hain ke agle dino mein kaafi volatility dekhne ko mil sakti hai.
Foreign exchange markets mein, GBP/USD pair ko bohot nazar se dekha jata hai kyunki yeh dono mulkon, yani United Kingdom aur United States, ki political aur economic developments ke liye bahut sensitive hai. Traders aur analysts aksar economic data releases, central bank policy decisions, aur geopolitical events ko jaanchte hain jo in currencies ke qeematon par asar daal sakti hain.

GBP/USD pair mein maujooda bearish jazbaat kai wajah se hain. Pehli wajah yeh hai ke Brexit negotiations ke chakkar mein uncertainty hai, jo UK ki economy par bura asar daal raha hai. Iske ilawa, economic data releases jaise GDP growth figures, inflation rates, aur employment reports bhi market ka jazbaat badal sakte hain.

Aage dekhte hue, kuch potential catalysts hain jo GBP/USD pair mein significant movement ka sabab ban sakte hain. Ek aham waqiya jo dekhne ko milega woh hai Brexit se mutalliq naye developments, jaise trade negotiations ya regulatory changes. Yeh waqiat aksar currency pair mein volatility ko janm dete hain jab market participants naye maloomat par react karte hain.

Iske alawa, Bank of England (BoE) aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ki monetary policy decisions bhi GBP/USD exchange rate par asar daal sakti hain. Interest rate hikes ya cuts, saath hi quantitative easing programs mein tabdeeliyan, investor confidence ko asar karte hain aur pound sterling aur US dollar ki muqabilat par asar daal sakte hain.

Geopolitical tensions ya ghaflati economic data releases bhi currency markets mein volatility ko badha sakte hain, jo GBP/USD pair mein tez movement ka sabab ban sakta hai. Traders aur investors aksar technical analysis tools aur indicators ka istemal karte hain taake wo historical price patterns aur market trends ke buniyad par potential entry aur exit points ko shanaakht kar saken.

Is liye, GBP/USD pair ka analysis karte waqt in tamam factors ko dekhna bohot zaroori hai, kyunki yeh sab mil kar currency market ke liye ek complex lehar ka sabab ban sakte hain

Hello, aap kaise hain? GBP/USD ne US dollar ki kam demand se support hasil kiya, lekin bulls abhi sidelines par hain. BoE ki hawkish policy ki umeed se GBP kamzor hoti hai aur bade movements ko limit karti hai. Traders ab UK data ke liye dekh rahe hain taake short-term stimulus mil sake, jabke US PPI report bhi aane wali hai. 4-hour chart par Relative Strength Index 40 se neeche hai, jo bearish bias dikhata hai. Niche ki taraf, support 1.3050 (static level), 1.3000 (round level, static level) aur 1.2940 (static level) par hai. Upar ki taraf, pehla resistance 1.3100 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level) par hai, uske baad 1.3170 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level) hai. Yeh pair Thursday ko European session mein 1.3100 ke neeche ek narrow channel mein fluctuate kar raha tha, jab market ka focus US se September inflation data ki taraf shift ho gaya.

US dollar ne apne rivals ke muqablay mein taqat hasil ki jab Federal Reserve ke September policy meeting ke minutes ne kuch ajeeb surprises diye. Yeh publication yeh confirm kiya ke Fed ke policymakers ka ek bada majority 50 basis points ki policy rate cut ka faisla support karta hai, lekin saath hi yeh bhi dikhata hai ke is masle par ek broader consensus hai. Yeh pehla qadam kisi specific future policy easing ki taraf nahi jaega.

Iske ilawa, minutes ne yeh bhi highlight kiya ke kuch participants 25 bps ki cut ko support karte hain, jabke kuch dusre is faisle ko support kar sakte the. USD par selling pressure aa sakta hai. Dusri taraf, market positioning yeh darshata hai ke USD ke paas zyada upside nahi hai. Investors ko lagta hai ke Fed policy rate unchanged rehne ka 20% mauka hai aur 80% mauka hai ke kuch aur hoga.
Iske ilawa, minutes ne yeh bhi highlight kiya ke kuch participants 25 bps ki cut ko support karte hain, jabke kuch dusre is faisle ko support kar sakte the. USD par selling pressure aane ki umeed hai. Dusri taraf, market positioning yeh darshata hai ke USD ke paas zyada upside nahi hai. Investors ko lagta hai ke Fed policy rate unchanged rehne ka 20% mauka hai aur November mein 25 basis points ka rate cut hone ka 80% mauka hai.

Lekin, agar monthly CPI reading 0.3% ya isse zyada aati hai, toh yeh USD ko apni position mazboot karne mein madad de sakta hai aur GBP/USD ke liye meaningful recovery phase ko mushkil bana sakta hai.

GBP-USD market pair ne Thursday ko trading ki, jahan sellers ne apna dominion dikhaya. Unhoon ne buyers ke bullish koshishon ko dabate hue 1.3092-1.3090 ke resistance area ko mazboot kiya, jis se bullish rate ruk gaya aur price dobara bearish hoke neeche chali gayi.

Bollinger Bands indicator ka istemal karte hue Daily timeframe par monitor karne par yeh dekha ja sakta hai ke price abhi bhi seller ke control mein hai, jo trading ko dominate karte hue price ya candle ko Middle Bollinger Bands area ke neeche 1.3230 par rakha hai. Market players ki taraf se support bhi mila hai jo abhi bhi GBP-USD pair ki price ko kam karna chahte hain, jahan strong bearish candles ka dominion hai. Yeh darshata hai ke aaj ka GBP-USD market trading abhi bhi bearish tarah se niche ja sakta hai, jahan seller Lower Bollinger Bands area ko 1.2985-1.2983 ke price par pahunchne ki koshish kar raha hai, jo ab tak buyer ne sambhal rakha hai.

Friday ki dopahar ki trading mein dekha gaya hai ke seller ne bazaar mein zyada taqat se entry di hai, jabke subah buyer ne bullish correction karne ki koshish ki. Seller apne bearish momentum ko banaye rakhne ki koshish kar raha hai aur price ko bearish karte hue buyer ke support area 1.3030-1.3025 par penetrat karne ka target bana raha hai. Agar seller is area ko sahi tarike se todne mein kamiyab hota hai, to yeh gehri bearish opportunity khol sakta hai, jiska agla target buyer ki demand support area 1.2984-1.2980 hoga.

**NATIJAH:**
Sell entry tab ki ja sakti hai agar seller ne 1.3030-1.3025 ke nazdeek buyer support area ko successfully penetrate kiya, jiska TP target area 1.2984-1.2982 hai.
Buy entry tab ki ja sakti hai agar buyer ne 1.3102-1.3104 ke nazdeek seller resistance area ko successfully penetrate kiya, jiska TP target area 1.3128-1.3130 hai.

Spot price ne apne hafte ke low 1.3017 se khaas tor par Friday ki subah trading mein kaafi behtar kar diya. Is pair ka 1.3055 tak barhna zyada tar America ke kamzor jobs data ki wajah se hua, jis ne Federal Reserve se 50-basis-point rate cut ki umeedon ko barhawa diya. Yeh mumkinah rate cut GBP ko support diya, jis ne currency pair ko taqat di. Jab market aham US employment data ki taraf dekh raha hai, investors is outcome ko closely monitor kar rahe hain taake USD ki agle direction ka pata lagaya ja sake.

Jab ke GBP/USD pair ne mazbooti dikhayi hai, yeh market sentiment mein tabdeeli se vulnerable raha hai. Kisi bhi ghaflati kamzori ke liye agar agla US employment data achha nahi hota, toh yeh USD mein ek broader sell-off ko janam de sakta hai, jis se GBP ko apni gains extend karne ka mauka milega. Doosri taraf, agar data ummeed se zyada behtar hota hai, toh yeh maujooda momentum ko ulat sakta hai, aur pair ko support levels ki taraf wapas le ja sakta hai. Traders ko unfolding economic data aur central bank policies par nazar rakhni chahiye taake pair ki agle direction ka andaza lagaya ja sake.

GBP/USD ke Fundamentals:

Friday ka aham US employment report USD ki performance ko shape karne mein ahm kirdar ada karega. Market ka andaza hai ke 163,000 jobs ka izafa hoga, jabke Unemployment Rate thoda ghat kar 4.2% tak aa jayega. Average Hourly Earnings ka izafa 0.3% mahine ke hisaab se hone ki umeed hai. Agar yeh figures ummeed se kam hoti hain, toh America mein economic slowdown ke hawale se chinta barh sakti hai, jo USD ko kamzor kar sakti hai. Ek kamzor jobs report market sentiment ko Pound ke haq mein shift karne ka mauka de sakti hai, jo GBP/USD pair ko aur support karegi.

Investors ke beech Bank of England (BoE) ki policy-easing cycle ke liye ehtiyaat bhari approach ke hawale se bharosa barh raha hai. Reuters poll ke mutabiq, economists ummeed karte hain ke BoE se is saal ke akhri hisse mein ek aur 25-basis-point rate cut hoga. Yeh ehtiyaati approach doosri regions mein dekhe gaye zyada aggressive easing policies ke muqable mein ek stabilizing factor faraham kar raha hai. Yeh gradual rate-cutting strategy GBP ko taqat dene mein madadgar sabit ho sakti hai, jo ise USD ke muqable mein mazbooti de sakti hai.

Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Yeh pair 1.3055 se upar hai, lekin isne upar ki taraf resistance ka samna kiya hai. Traders aham data release ka intezar kar rahe hain jo pair ki agle move ko tay karega. Relative Strength Index (RSI) yeh darust karta hai ke buyers momentum gain kar rahe hain, jo 1.3100 level ki taraf rally ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Agar yeh pair 1.3100 ke upar nikalta hai, toh 1.3150 ki taraf further gains ki umeed hai. Agar yeh level bhi breach hota hai, toh GBP/USD March 23, 2022 ke peak 1.3297 ki taraf nikal sakta hai, uske baad March 1, 2022 ka cycle high 1.3438.

1.3050 ke upar rehne ke bawajood, yeh pair apne multi-week highs se neeche hai. August mein 29-month peak tak pahunchnay ke baad, pair ne kuch resistance ka samna kiya, lekin yeh recent highs ke kareeb trade kar raha hai. Price action ab bhi bullish hai, jo 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 1.3062 ke saath support hasil kar raha hai. Lekin, traders foran neeche ke technical target ko dekh rahe hain, jo potential shorts ke liye hai, yeh 50-day EMA ke aas-paas hai, jo 1.3070 se thoda upar hai.

Currency pair ne early session ke dauran thoda rebound kiya, jo broad-market risk flows ke wajah se hua, jinhone DXY ko pressure mein dala. Is upward movement ke bawajood, buyers pair ko naye levels tak push nahi kar paye aur yeh recent levels ke andar hi confined raha. Latest update ke mutabiq, price 1.3070 ke aas paas trade kar rahi thi. Yeh market sentiment aur risk appetite ke asar ko reflect karta hai, khaaskar jab traders key economic data aur central bank decisions ka intezaar kar rahe hain.Jab pair apne recent highs ke qareeb hover kar raha hai, traders ko un key technical levels ka khayal rakhna chahiye jo future price movements ko affect kar sakte hain. Upside mein, agar price 1.3100 ke psychological level ke upar break karta hai, to 1.3140 ke resistance ko test karne ka raasta ban sakta hai, aur shaayad two-and-a-half-year high 1.3267 tak bhi pohonch sakta hai. Agar current levels ko maintain karne mein nakami hoti hai, to downside mein move ho sakta hai, aur 1.2900 ka psychological support critical level hoga dekhne ke liye Federal Reserve ka aanewala October ka meeting US monetary policy mein shift la sakta hai. Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke recent statement, jo adjustments ki zaroorat ko indicate karta hai, ne rate cuts ke hawalay se speculation ko barhawa diya hai. CME FedWatch tool suggest karta hai ke 61% chance hai ek 25-basis-point cut ka, aur 39% chance hai ek zyada aggressive 50-basis-point cut ka. In expectations ki wajah se short term mein US dollar weak ho sakta hai aur GBP/USD pair ko mazbooti mil sakti hai.
Jabke Fed ek aggressive rate-cutting cycle shuru karne ki umeed hai, Bank of England (BoE) ko zyada gradual path follow karne ka andaza hai. BoE se expect kiya ja raha hai ke yeh doosre central banks ke muqable mein sirf shallow interest rate cuts implement karega. Yeh monetary policy ka farq GBP/USD pair ko affect kar sakta hai, khaaskar jab USD ke price dynamics high-impact economic data releases ki absence mein dominant factor bane rahein ge UK se. Traders closely monitor kar rahe hain donon central banks ke developments ko, jab woh pair ke future moves ka andaza lagane ki koshish karte hain.North American trading session ke dauran, spot price ne fluctuations dekhi due to mixed economic data jo investors ko Federal Reserve ke aanewale rate cut decision ke hawalay se uncertain chhor gayi. Jabke October meeting mein 25 ya 50-basis-point cut ke hawalay se speculation barh rahi hai, pair ne relatively stable trade kiya hai, jo 1.3072 ke qareeb tha. Aage dekhte hue, 1.3100 ka psychological resistance level upward movement ko hinder karne ka andaza hai, jabke mazid resistance 1.3140 par hoga aur ek potential new two-and-a-half-year high 1.3267 tak bhi ho sakta hai. Downside mein, key support level 1.2900 ke qareeb hoga.

GBP/USD pair ne apne kuch losses recover kiye hain, daily chart par "hammer" pattern appear hua hai aur price 1.3050 ke upar rise kar chuki hai, jo ke 0.15% se zyada ka gain hai. UK ke achhe economic data ne GBP/USD ke recovery ko support kiya hai, jisme economic growth expectations ke qareeb aayi hai. Magar, US ke thode hotter PPI report ne GBP ke gains ko limited rakha hai. GBP/USD pair ne October 10 ko low 1.3010 se bounce karke kuch stability dikhayi hai, magar buyers ke liye umeed tab barh sakti hai jab pair October 10 ke high 1.3093 ko break kare, uske baad 50-day moving average jo 1.3099 par hai.Isliye, GBP/USD ke liye agla resistance level 1.3100 hoga, aur phir October 8 ka high 1.3113 par hoga. Agar aur strength aayi, to weekly high 1.3134 par jo October 7 ko bana tha, wo agla supply zone hoga. Agar GBP/USD 1.3100 ke upar break nahi kar pata, to sellers price ko 1.3050 ke psychological level se neeche push kar sakte hain, jo price ko is haftay ke low 1.3010 tak le ja sakta hai.Momentum perspective se dekhte hue, GBP/USD mein koi significant bias nazar nahi aati, lekin Relative Strength Index (RSI) kuch din se rise ho raha hai, jo gains ke liye rasta khol sakta hai. Aaj subha, GBP/USD ne 1.3365 ka fresh two-and-a-half-year high touch kiya, jo 1.3000 level se bounce karne ke baad lagbhag 3% ka increase tha. Technical oscillators suggest karte hain ke market kaafi nervous hai. Stochastic overbought zone mein gir chuka hai, jabke RSI 70 level se bounce karke neeche ki taraf point kar raha hai. Saath hi, 20-day SMA apna positive momentum kho raha hai, jo ke downward pressure show karta hai.Agar market pull back karta hai, to pair directly support level 1.3265 par move kar sakta hai, aur uske baad 20-day SMA jo 1.3170 par hai, waha tak pahunch sakta hai. Agar downside move continue hoti hai, to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement jo uptrend mein 1.2300 se 1.3365 tak ka tha, wo 1.3113 par ho sakta hai, phir decline hote hue 1.3000 aur 50-day SMA ke conjunction mein aasakta hai.Agar daily chart ka analysis karein, to ek strong ascending price channel form hua tha jab pehli dafa 1.2300 ke low se rebound kiya gaya tha, aur is waqt price ne support line ko break karke northern channel ke lower border ke neeche trade kar rahi hai. Magar humne pehle bhi aise breakouts dekhe hain. Price ne support line ke neeche break kiya tha, magar sellers ko zyada south jaane nahi diya, aur resultantly pair ne almost immediately northern channel ke andar wapas entry ki aur apna upward movement continue rakha.Abhi is waqt, jab ye post likhi ja rahi hai, pair 1.3064 par trade kar raha hai aur global uptrend ke continue hone ki high possibility ab bhi maujood hai.

GBP/USD pair ne kuch losses se recovery ki hai, aur daily chart par "hammer" pattern dekhne ko mila hai. Is waqt price 1.3050 ke upar chali gayi hai, takriban 0.15% se zyada. UK se achi economic data ne GBP/USD ko support kiya hai, jisme economic growth expectations ke qareeb hai. Magar, US ka thoda zyada hot PPI report ne GBP ki gains ko limit kiya hai. GBP/USD lagta hai ke apna bottom touch kar chuka hai, jab yeh 1.3434 ke yearly high se gir kar October 10 ko 1.3010 tak pohanch gaya. Lekin, pair ko October 10 ka high 1.3093 torna hoga, aur us ke baad 50-day moving average jo 1.3099 par hai, taake buyers hopeful rah sakein rate hike ke liye.

Is liye, GBP/USD ke liye agla resistance level 1.3100 hoga, us ke baad October 8 ka high 1.3113 hoga. Agar aur zyada strength dikhai deti hai, to agla supply zone October 7 ke weekly high 1.3134 par hoga. Dusri taraf, agar GBP/USD 1.3100 ke upar break karne mein nakam hota hai, to sellers market mein aa sakte hain aur price ko psychological level 1.3050 ke neeche dhakel sakte hain, jisse pair is hafte ke low 1.3010 tak gir sakta hai.

Momentum ke lehaz se dekha jaye to, GBP/USD mein koi significant bias nahi hai, magar RSI (Relative Strength Index) pichle chand dino se barh raha hai, jo gains ka raasta khol sakta hai. Aaj ke din mein, GBP/USD 1.3365 ka naya two-and-a-half-year high touch kar chuka hai, jo takriban 3% se upar hai, jab price 1.3000 level se bounce hua. Technical oscillators suggest kar rahe hain ke market kaafi nervous hai. Stochastic overbought zone mein gir gaya hai, jabke RSI 70 level se bounce hone ke baad neeche ja raha hai. Saath hi, 20-day SMA apna positive momentum kho raha hai, jo downward pressure ko zahir karta hai.

Agar market pullback karta hai, to pair support level 1.3265 tak ja sakta hai, us ke baad 20-day SMA jo 1.3170 par hai. Agar move downside ki taraf continue karta hai, to uptrend ka 23.6% Fibonacci retracement jo 1.2300 se 1.3365 ke beech hai, 1.3113 par aasakta hai, aur phir price 1.3000 tak gir sakti hai, jo 50-day SMA ke sath coincide karega.