Aud/usd

Australian Economy ki Halat


Australian Bureau of Statistics ne yeh bataya hai ke Australian ma'ashiyat ne tasavvur se kam taraqqi ki hai, jo ke 0.8% saal ba saal barh gayi hai, jab ke pehle wale maheenay mein yeh 1% thi. Ma'ashiyat daano ne Q3 GDP ki annual growth ko 1.1% ke tor par andaza lagaya tha. Har maheenay ma'ashiyat ne 0.3% ki taraqqi ki, jo ke mutawaqqa 0.4% se kam hai, lekin pichle maheenay ki 0.2% se behtar hai. Yeh kamzor GDP data ne Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) par dovish bets ko barha diya hai, jahan bazar ke hissedaron ka andaza hai ke interest rate mein katoti April 2025 tak ho sakti hai. Australia mein ma'ashiyat ki kamzor taraqqi ke khauf aur US Dollar ki mazid mazbooti ne Australian Dollar (AUD) par aur pressure daala hai. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki performance ko chhe bade currencies ke saath napta hai, 107.50 ke qareeb chala gaya hai, Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ki aane wali taqreer se pehle. Powell ke bayan se Fed ki monetary policy ki raah aur aage barhne ki mumkinat ke bare mein roshni milne ki umeed hai.
D1 Chart Analysis


Chart analysis ke mutabiq, pair price ne Friday ke session mein 0.6335 tak barh gaya, halankeh Australian data behtareen nahi tha, lekin yeh abhi bhi 0.6400 ke ird gird naye chaar maheenay ke lows ke qareeb hai. Daily chart ke oscillators khud ko negative territory mein paate hain aur oversold conditions ki taraf nahi ja rahe, jo currency pair ke liye bearish outlook ko mazid mazboot karta hai. Yeh technical setup yeh darshata hai ke AUD/USD ke liye sabse asaan raasta neeche ki taraf hai. Agar 0.6300 ka mark tod diya gaya, toh yeh aage ke liye girawat ko barhawa de sakta hai, shayad yeh saal ke dauran ke low 0.6250 ke qareeb dobara test karne ki taraf le ja sakta hai.

China aur Australia ka Ma'ashi Jaiza

China ki Ma'ashi Karadarzi

China ke ma'ashi stats ke elaan ke baad, Australian dollar (AUD) ne thodi taqat hasil ki hai US dollar (USD) ke muqable mein. Teesre ruba'i saal 2024 mein, China ka GDP pichle saal ke muqablay mein 5.4% barh gaya, jabke pichle ruba'i mein ye sirf 4.6% tha. Ye data bazar ki tawaqqo se behtar tha, jahan logon ne 5% ke aas-paas ki barhoti ki umeed ki thi.

Ruba'i dar ruba'i, China ka GDP Q4 2024 mein 1.6% barha, jo pichle ruba'i ke 0.9% se behtar hai aur bazar ki tawaqqo ke mutabiq hai. December ke mahine mein retail sales 3.7% barh gayi, jo 3.5% ki tawaqqo aur pichle mahine ke 3% ke barhoti se zyada hai. Industrial production bhi behtar rahi, jo 6.2% par aayi, jo 5.4% ki tawaqqo se zyada hai aur November ke performance ke barabar hai.

Australia mein Rozgaar ke Rujhan

Australia mein, mausami tor par adjust kiya gaya bekar rozgaar dar November mein 3.9% se barh kar December mein 4.0% ho gaya, jo bazar ki tawaqqo ke mutabiq hai. Lekin, rozgaar ka barhna December mein 56.3K tak pahuncha, jo 15.0K ki bazar ki tawaqqo se kafi zyada hai aur November ke 28.2K se behtar hai (jo pehle 35.6K se update kiya gaya tha).

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) ke labor statistics ke chief Bjorn Jarvis ne kaha: "Rozgaar ka population ratio 0.1 percentage points barh kar naye record 64.5% par pahuncha. Ye data COVID-19 se pehle ke levels se 2.3 percentage points zyada aur ek saal pehle se 0.5 percentage points zyada hai. Rozgaar aur bekar rozgaar mein izafa ne hissa lene ki dar ko bhi barhaya hai, jo un logon ka hissa darshata hai jo ya to rozgaar mein hain ya actively kaam talash kar rahe hain."

AUD/USD ka Technical Jaiza

Jumeraat ko, AUD/USD jo jo 0.6220 par trading kar raha tha, ek declining channel ko todne ki koshish kar raha tha daily chart par. Agar ye breakthrough hota hai, to maujooda negative bias kam ho sakta hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) bhi upar ki taraf jata dikha raha hai, jo 50 level ke qareeb pahuncha hai, aur ye recovery momentum ka ishara hai.

0.6220 par, declining channel ka upper hissa AUD/USD ke liye foran resistance hai. Niche, 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 0.6213 aur nine-day EMA 0.6206 pehle ke liye support faraham karte hain. Ek mazboot support level 0.5920 par hai, jo declining channel ki niche ki had par hai.

Summary ke tor par, China ke ma'ashi indicators aur Australia ke labor market ke stats dono positive rujhan dikhate hain, jo Australian dollar ki taqat par asar dal sakte hain US dollar ke muqable mein. Technical analysis ye darshata hai ke AUD/USD ka pair ek critical mor par hai, jahan resistance aur support levels ko nazar rakhna zaroori hai.

USD •• Economic Forces in Play
• Australia ki maeeshat par focus barh raha hai, jabke Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ke taraf se interest rate cut ki afwahen zoro par hain. Thandi hoti inflation aur kamzor employment data ki wajah se traders yeh soch rahe hain ke RBA jaldi koi action le sakti hai. Lekin, central bank kuch aur clarity ka intezar bhi kar sakti hai.
• Doosri taraf, US Dollar abhi bhi mazboot hai, jisay strong economic reports aur labor market ka support mil raha hai. Federal Reserve ka hawkish stance greenback ko stable rakhta hai, magar yeh bhi kaha ja raha hai ke shayad iski mazbooti apne peak par pohanch chuki hai. Agar sentiment badalta hai, toh Australian Dollar ke liye wapas ubharne ka mauka ho sakta hai.

•• Commodities: A Key Factor
• Australia ki economy kaafi hatt tak iron ore aur coal jaise commodities par munhasir hai. Aaj ke market updates ke mutabiq yeh sector kaafi challenges face kar raha hai. China, jo Australia ka sabse bara trading partner hai, ki slow demand se in exports par pressure barh raha hai. Industrial activity aur construction data ke kamzor hone ki wajah se challenges mazeed barh gaye hain, jo Australian Dollar ke liye mushkilain paida kar raha hai.

•• Technical Landscape
• AUD/USD pair critical support level 0.6205 ke qareeb hai, aur traders is point ko ghoor se dekh rahe hain. Agar yeh level break hoti hai, toh aur zyada selling pressure aa sakta hai, aur agla target 0.6120 ke aas paas ho sakta hai. Agar price upar jati hai, toh resistance level 0.6385 ke paas mazboot rukawat bana hua hai.
Indicators mixed signals de rahe hain. Moving averages bearish momentum ko show karte hain, magar RSI is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke pair oversold territory ki taraf ja raha hai, jo rebound ka signal de sakta hai. Retracement levels 0.6320 ke qareeb pivot point ka kaam kar sakte hain, jisko traders closely monitor kar rahe hain.

•• Key Events on the Radar
• Aaj ka focus economic data releases aur central bank updates par hoga. Commodities, khaaskar iron ore, ki prices bhi market ko move karne wali hain. Itni sari cheezein chal rahi hain, AUD/USD pair ke liye surprises aur opportunities se bhara session expected hai.

Fundamental Outlook (Bunyadi Tanazur)


Aane wale dino mein, Bank of Japan (BoJ) aur Federal Reserve par nazar rehna zaroori hai. BoJ abhi tak apni policy ko sakhth karne mein hesitant hai, magar agar koi achanak hawkish shift hoti hai to yen ki qeemat mein izafa ho sakta hai. Dusri taraf, FOMC ki rate decision (31 Jan) aur Non-Farm Payrolls (2 Feb) USD ki harkat ko mutasir karenge. Agar Fed rate cuts ko delay karne ka ishara deta hai, to USD/JPY mazboot reh sakta hai, lekin kamzor job data dollar par pressure daal sakta hai. Market sentiment bhi ek aham pehlu hai—agar risk aversion ka mahal banta hai to yen ko safe-haven demand mil sakti hai. Iske ilawa, duniya ki ma'ashi growth ke masail yen ki demand ko barha sakte hain, khaaskar agar US mein slowdown ki nishaniyan nazar aati hain.
Technical Outlook (Fanni Tanazur)


Resistance: 149.80 – 150.20 (psychological level, jo recent highs ke aas-paas hai)
Support: 147.50 – 147.00 (jahan buyers aane ki umeed hai)

Indicators:

• RSI 60 ke aas-paas hai, jo halka bullish momentum dikhata hai.
• 50-day MA lagbhag 148.00 par support ke tor par kaam kar raha hai.
• MACD positive hai lekin consolidation ki nishani de raha hai.

Price action in levels ke aas-paas yeh darshata hai ke agar koi catalyst nahi milta to yeh range-bound movement dekh sakta hai.
Critical Range (Ahem Daaira)


Main 148.00 – 150.00 ko ek ahem daaira samajhta hoon. Agar Fed hawkish stance rakhta hai, to USD/JPY 150.00 tak ja sakta hai. Dusri taraf, kamzor NFP data ya BoJ ki tightening ka ishara USD ko 147.00 ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Main kisi bhi geopolitical ya ma'ashi updates par bhi nazar rakh raha hoon jo global risk sentiment ko mutasir kar sakti hain, kyunki yeh aksar yen mein volatility paida karte hain.
Conclusion (Nateejah)


Jab hum naye hafte ki taraf barh rahe hain, main yeh dekh raha hoon ke market sentiment kaise evolve hota hai, khaaskar aane wale data ke jawab mein. Main in key levels par nazar rakhoonga taake hafte ke dauran apne strategy ko dobara assess kar sakoon.