#CL

Pichle haftay mein roshni wala patla tael ki mustaqil aik halki izafa dekha gaya, jo ke U.S. aur China se ummedon se bhari darkhwastoon ki wajah se tha. Magar, America ke central bank ke afisaan ne buland qimat darjat ka ishaara diya jis se ahem tael istemal karne walay mumalik ki darkhwast kam ho sakti hai.
Fed’s Stance on Interest Rates.
Siyaasi Manzar nama tael ke daamon par asar daalne ka aik bunyadi tareeqa supply disruptions hai. Jab tael paida karne wale ilaqon mein jaise ke Darmiyanee Mashriq, tanazaat peda hotay hain, to tael ki production aur transportation mein rukawat aa sakti hai. Maslan, 1990-1991 ke Gulf War ke doran, Iraqi aur Kuwaiti tael ki exports mein rukawat ki wajah se tael ke daamon mein tezi se izafa hua. Bilkhosus, Venezuela aur Libya jese mumalik mein siyaasi behtari ne tael ki output mein kami ka sabab bana, jo ke duniyawi tael ke daamon par uparward dabao daal rahi hai, jabke Ukraine-Russia tanaza ka shuru ho jana ne tael ke daamon ko buland kar diya.
Pichle haftay mein, Light Crude Oil Futures $78.26 par settle hue, jis mein $0.15 ya +0.19% ka izafa tha.
America ka rozgar market 3.9% ki kam berozgari dar ke sath ab bhi josh o jazba dikha raha hai, magar yeh "naram utarna" ko asaan nahin banaya hai jabkay maal o mawaad ke dabao mojood hain. Haal hi mein data ne dikhaya ke U.S. mein petrol aur diesel ki kam darkhwast hai, jab ke mosam garmi ki driving season qareeb hai aur fuel ki inventory barh rahi hai. Yeh ishara karta hai ke tael ki darkhwast ke tajziye mein kuch bearish tabdiliyaat mumkin hain. Muhawira ke tor par, China ke crude oil imports April mein bohot zyada barh gaye, jo ke darkhwast mein ek mumkin farogh ki isharaat diya aur tael ke qeemat mein kuch support faraham ki.
Economic Indicators and Oil Demand.
Siyaasi Manzar nama zyada ahtijaj hai, jab ke Darmiyanee Mashriq mein ongoing jang aur bara arqam walay mShort-Term Market Forecast
Demand indicators aur U.S. Fed ki interest rates par mazboot rukh ke milaap ke dene ke baad, tael ka short-term manzar e nazar ehtiyat se bearish hai. Investors ko aane waale U.S. mehngai data aur global ma'ashiyati taraqqiyat ko qareebi tor par nigaah mein rakhna chahiye, kyun ke yeh agle hafton mein market ke rujhanat ko shakl dene mein ahem honge. Monetary policy ka mazeed tighten ho jaana kisi bhi significant price rally ko tael ke markets mein rok sakta hai.
Short-Term Market Forecast.

Technical tor par, mukhya support zone $76.91 se le kar $74.49 tak hai. Pichle haftay yeh $76.89 par kamiyaab taur par test kiya gaya tha. Upar ki taraf, market ko $82.01 ko paar karne ki zaroorat hai taake upar ki potential mein dilchaspi paida ho sake.umalik ke darmiyan tijarati dynamics market ki raay ko mutasir kar rahe hain. Mazeed, European Central Bank ke mukhtalif interest rate cuts Fed ke position ke khilaaf ho sakte hain, jis se mumkin hai ke duniyawi currency exchanges aur ashiya ke daam par asar pade.

Inflation and Economic Growth
Siyaasi Manzar nama tael ke daamon par asar global maeeshat par gehray asar daal sakta hai. Zyada tael ke daam se mehngai barh sakti hai, jab ke transportation aur production ke kharche barhte hain. Yeh maeeshati taraqqi ko rok sakta hai, jab ke istemaal karne wale kam paisa rakhte hain jo ke doosri cheezein aur khidmaton par kharch karte hain. Doosri taraf, kam tael ke daamon maeeshati ko tezi se behtar kar sakte hain, jab ke istemaal karne wale sasta energy ke kharch se faida uthate hain aur karobari asakht kam ho jate hain.

Supply aur Demand Dynamics:
Crude oil ek essential commodity hai jo energy production mein istemal hoti hai. Iske supply aur demand ke fluctuations crude oil ke price trend ko directly influence karte hain. OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) ke decisions aur oil-producing countries ke production levels bhi is par asar daal sakte hain.
Technical Analysis:
Technical indicators jaise ke Moving Averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), aur Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) price trend ko samajhne mein madadgar hote hain. MACD ek popular indicator hai jo trend direction aur momentum ko identify karta hai.
Geopolitical Events:
Geo-political tensions, conflicts, aur natural disasters crude oil ke price movement ko influence kar sakte hain. Kisi bhi important region mein instability ya supply disruptions crude oil ke prices mein sudden changes laa sakte hain.
Economic Data Releases:
Economic indicators jaise ke GDP growth, manufacturing output, aur consumer sentiment bhi crude oil ke price par asar daal sakte hain. Strong economic data crude oil demand ko boost kar sakta hai, jabki weak data supply ko increase kar sakta hai.
Inventory Reports:
Weekly crude oil inventory reports market ke supply-demand dynamics ko reflect karte hain. Inventory levels ka analysis karke traders aur investors crude oil ke future price movement ka anuman lagate hain.
Currency Movements:
Crude oil ka price US dollar mein quote hota hai, isliye USD ki strength ya weakness bhi crude oil ke price trend ko influence kar sakti hai.

MACD indicator ke signals ke saath aapko ek comprehensive outlook mil sakta hai. Agar MACD bullish crossover show karta hai, toh yeh ek bullish sign ho sakta hai aur price $79.96 ke upar ja sakta hai. Agar MACD bearish crossover dikhata hai, toh yeh bearish sign ho sakta hai aur price $76.91 ke neeche ja sakta hai.Lekin, yeh sirf possibilities hain aur market mein kabhi bhi unexpected events ho sakte hain jo price movement ko influence kar sakte hain. Isliye, apne trading plan ko carefully analyze karein aur risk management ko dhyan mein rakhein.
Fundamental factors.
Global Economic Growth:
Crude oil ka demand closely correlated hota hai global economic activity ke saath. Jab global economic growth tezi se ho, tab crude oil demand bhi badhta hai, aur isse crude oil ke prices mein bhi upar ki movement dekhne ko milti hai.
OPEC Decisions:
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) crude oil ke production levels ko control karta hai. OPEC ke meetings aur decisions crude oil ke prices par immediate asar daal sakte hain. Agar OPEC production levels ko ghataata hai, toh yeh prices ko badhne mein rok sakta hai, jabki production ko badhane se prices kam ho sakti hain.
Geopolitical Tensions:
Kisi bhi major oil-producing region mein geo-political tensions ya conflicts crude oil ke prices ko directly influence kar sakte hain. Kisi bhi region mein supply disruptions hone par crude oil ke prices mein tezi se izafa ho sakta hai.
Supply Disruptions:
Natural disasters, technical faults, ya political unrest ki wajah se supply disruptions hone par crude oil ke prices mein sudden changes dekhne ko milte hain. Examples include hurricanes affecting oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico or political unrest disrupting production in oil-rich countries like Venezuela.
Inventory Levels:
Weekly crude oil inventory reports market ke supply-demand dynamics ko reflect karte hain. Agar inventory levels unexpectedly high hoti hain, toh yeh indicate kar sakta hai ke demand kam hai aur isse prices par pressure aata hai.
Currency Movements:
Crude oil ka price US dollar mein quote hota hai, isliye USD ki strength ya weakness bhi crude oil ke price trend ko influence kar sakti hai. Agar USD strong hai, toh crude oil prices usually down hote hain aur vice versa.