usd/jpy

Pichlay Jummay ko trading mein hum ne dekha ke 153.26 ke ooper ek jhooti breakout hui, jo ke exchange rate mein kami ka ishaara hai. Main umeed karta hoon ke rate girte rahega, isliye hum ne pehle se hi 153.20 par ek sale khol liya hai. 153.40 ke upar bhadakne ka maqsad tha ke khareedne walon ko attract karna, lekin ab hum aur girenge. Acha waqt sell karne ka hai jab ke price 152.25 ke local minimum ke neeche gir jaye. Agla upward impulse agar hota hai, to ye darust kar sakta hai ke ek sale karni chahiye. Aise growth ke baad, agar abhi ke se bhi ooncha ho sakta hai, to girawat jari rahegi. 151.80 ke range ke neeche breakthrough aur consolidation, ye aur ek ishaara hai ke ab waqt hai bechnay ka. 152.80 tak pohanchne ke baad, girawat jari rahegi. Hum shayad 151.80 ke local minimum ke neeche breakthrough aur consolidation kar sakein, jo ke humein bechnay ka ek behtareen waja de sakta hai agar hum isse breakthrough kar sakein. Jab price 152.80 ke range ke neeche gir aur uske neeche consolidate hota hai, tab market girte rahega aur ye ek behtareen waqt hota hai bechnay ka. Rate ka girna 152.15 ke neeche ek behtareen waqt hota hai sellers ke liye. Agar aur ek upward impulse hota hai, to aap aur girenge. Pichlay Jummay, American session ek halki izafa ke saath shuru hui 152.78 par, phir ek aur girawat aayi. Hum local minimum range ko 152.85 mein bid mein breakthrough kar sakte hain. Agar hum uske neeche rehte hain, to humein bechna chahiye. USD/JPY pair ne pichlay Jummay ko ek phir se taqat hasil ki, 18-dinon ke SMA ke qareeb support dhoondhte hue 152.80 par. Ye confirm kiya gaya ek test ke saath 152.50 Jummay subah, jo ke peechle downtrend ka 50.2% Fibonacci retracement ke saath milta hai. 100-dinon ke moving average 151.70 tak pohanch sakta hai, aur hum 61.8% Fibonacci level 151.45 tak bhi hasil kar sakte hain jab hum 151.00 ke dar par pohanchte hain. RSI aur MACD barh rahe hain, jo ke increased buying pressure ko darust karta hai. Pair ke 200-dinon ke simple moving average ko par karne ki koshishon ke bawajood, chaar ghante ke chart par downside risks wazeh hain. 20-d aur 50-d moving averages ke darmiyan gap ka tang hona aur 20-d aur 50-d moving averages ke darmiyan bullish crossover ke wajood se, ye indication hai ke haal ki rally ulta ho sakti hai.

USD/JPY USD/JPY Currency Pair


USD/JPY USD/JPY Currency Pair Ka Keemat Ki Rawiya Ka Jaiza USD/JPY currency pair ke keemat ki rawiya ka jaiza deta hai ke abhi tak koi khaas taraqqi nahi hui hai, lekin 152 par ek taqat se aage ki sambhavna hai. Haal ki kami ko ek theek karne ka tadbeer qarar diya gaya hai, jo ke ek bull trend ke raste ko khole sakta hai. Rozana chart ke mutabiq, yeh mumkin hai ke ek bullish harkat ho. Jabke 150.09 tak ka ek pullback tawaqo kiya jata hai, 151.94 par rukawat ko toorna zaroori hai taake agle harkat ke liye aur 152.92 tak short covering ke zariye pahuncha ja sake.

Haal mein, USD/JPY ke liye maamooli se qarar raha hai jab yeh 151.93 ke nichle hisse ke andar trading hota hai. Magar agar 150.27 ke support level ko tor diya gaya to yeh ek chhote se muddat ki unchai ko darust karta hai aur 55-din ke EMA ke taraf 149.27 ki ek trend ko palat sakta hai. Dosri taraf, 151.98 ke resistance level ke barqarar tor par lamba-term ke uptrend ko tasdiq karega. Maamooli nishana 140.25 aur 150.87 ke darmiyan, sath hi 146.47 aur 153.03 ke darmiyan hai.

Baray paimane par, 151.87 se sudhar 140.25 par khatam ho sakta hai, jo 127.26 se izafi kamaai ki dobara shuruat ki nishani hai. 151.93 ke resistance level ko taeyeed karna yeh bullish tajwez ko tasdiq karega. Doosra darmiyan-term ka nishana 127.26 aur 151.86, sath hi 140.25 aur 155.20 ke darmiyan hai, 146.47 ke support ko qayam rakhne ki shirayat ke sath. Agar choti rukawat ho, to 151.27/151.19 ke support zone ke nichle giravat gehra tareen giravat ka suchanakar ho sakta hai.

In factors ko madde nazar rakhte hue, main kharidari se farokht par muntaqil ho gaya hoon aur 151.46 ke support level par ek nishana rakha hai, jo ke March 27 se flat manzil ke uuper shor par milta hai. Iske baad, giravat 151.23/151.18 ke support zone ke qareeb flat manzil ke neeche nishana bana sakta hai. Kisi bhi market mahol mein risk management ko pehle se tay karna zaroori hai. Wazeh risk parameters tay karna, stop-loss orders ko amal mein laana, aur portfolios ko mukhtalif karna nuqsaan ko kam karne mein madadgar ho sakta hai. Discpline banaye rakhna aur ek achhi tarah tay ki gayi sarmaya rakhne ki strategi ka paalan karne se lambe arse tak kamiyabi aur dolat ki hifazat mumkin hai.

USD-JPY ke currency pair



USD-JPY ke currency pair ka aaj ka movement mazeed 150.76 ke price tak girne ka dikh raha hai. Meri aj ki bunyadi tahlil ke mutabiq, USDJPY ke currency pair ki girawat yen ke exchange rate mein mazid taqwiyat ki wajah se thi. Yeh taqwiyat Japan mein ghar ke kharch mein izafa hone ke khabron ki wajah se hui, jo ke 0.5% tak barh gaya, aur is mahine Japan mein kami hui darmanzar rate tak pohonch gayi jis se yen ka 0.3% tak mazid taqwiyat hui aur USDJPY 150.86 tak gir gaya. Is ke ilawa, US dollar ki kamzori ne bhi aaj USDJPY ki girawat ko trigger kiya. Dollar tab se kamzor hua hai jab America mein berozgari ka dar 222 hazaar logon tak is mahine barh gaya aur trade balance US dollar ke khilaf bhi is hafte -68.9 billion USD tak gir gaya, jis se USDJPY ka yeh movement phir se 150.76 ke price tak gir jayega. Meri aj ki bunyadi tahlil ke natayaj aj bhi tend to SELL USDJPY up to a price of 150.76 par hai.

USD-JPY ka technical analysis ke mutabiq, aaj USDJPY currency pair ka movement phir se 150.60 ke price tak girne ka imkan hai. Isliye ke H1 timeframe mein USDJPY currency pair ka movement bearish engulfing candle ban chuka hai jo ke hamare liye ek bohot taqatwar signal hai ke hum USDJPY ko 150.60s ke price tak bech sakte hain iss Jumma ko. Iske ilawa, relative strength index 14 indicator ke tajziya mein, yeh pata chalta hai ke USDJPY ke price range 150.85 mein pehle hi oversold ya bohot hi oversold ho chuka hai isliye bohot zyada imkan hai ke aj subah USDJPY ko kaafi buland taur par 151.00 ke price tak tehqiqat kar diya jaye ga. USDJPY ka aj ka buy signal SNR method ke sath bhi madad milti hai kyun ke jab usdjpy ne 150.85 ke price par dakhil hua to yeh pata chala ke yeh pehle hi RBS price mein dakhil ho chuka tha to isliye aj USDJPY kaafi buland taur par 10-50 pips ke darmiyan uth sakta hai. Meri aj ki technical tahlil ke natayaj ke mutabiq lagta hai ke USDJPY phir se 150.04 ke price tak uth jayega, lekin yeh mumkin hai ke USDJPY aj 150.60 ke price tak apni girawat ko jari rakhe.

Pichle haftay, USD/JPY ke haftay ke chart par ek upar ki taraf ka movement dikhaya gaya. Yeh 151.589 ke qareeb band hua, ise ek aur martaba test kia gaya. Isliye, pichle haftay maine 149.142 ke support ki taraf ek niche ki taraf movement ko pehle se tariq diya. Hum dekh sakte hain ke yeh ek izafa hua. Mera tajziya haqeeqat mein nahi hua jab yeh 153.585 ke qareeb phuncha aur uske qareeb band hua. Kyunki resistance ko nahi test kia gaya, is haftay main mujhe ek upar ki taraf ka movement ko tariq diya ja raha hai jo 155.447 ke resistance ki taraf ja raha hai. Mujhe yakeen hai ke kam az kam resistance ko test kia jayega, aur zyada tar, keemat is level ke oopar band hogi.

Japanese Yen par latest COT reports se pata chala ke ghair-tijarati traders ne 2nd April se 9th April tak 7,915 long positions band ki aur 11,006 short positions kholi. Yeh dikhata hai ke traders ka jazba mazid bearish ban gaya hai. Selling positions mazeed barhte ja rahe hain. Hum is haftay aur izafa dekh sakte hain. Kul milake khule long contracts ki taadaad 47,275 hai, jabke khule short contracts ki taadaad 209,426 hai. Yeh dikhata hai ke short contracts long contracts se kafi zyada hain, isliye lambay arsay ke liye sirf yen ko bechna munasib hai. Is haftay, ikhtisaar mein, hum is pair ke liye kharidne ki moqaayian pa sakte hain, kyun ke dono technical analysis aur reports kharidne ko support karte hain.

USD/JPY ka up trend pichle haftay 151.93 resistance ko tod kar dobara shuru hua. Magar 153.37 tak pohanchne ke baad woh peeche hat gaya. Is haftay shuru mein initial bias thoda neutral hai aur pehle thoda consolidation dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Outlook bullish rahega jab tak 150.80 support qaim hai. 153.37 ke upar target hoga agla Fibonacci projection level 155.20.

Bade tasveer mein, mojooda 140.25 se upar ka rise dekha jata hai jise 127.20 (2023 ka low) se shuru hua up trend ka teesra hissa samjha jata hai. Agla target 61.8% projection hoga 127.20 se 151.89 aur 140.25 se 155.20 ke darmiyan. Outlook ab tak bullish rahega jab tak 146.47 support qaim hai, gahri pullback ke bawajood bhi.

Lambi dour ki tasveer mein, jab tak 127.20 support (2023 ka low) qaim hai, up trend 75.56 (2011 ka low) se abhi tak jari hai. 75.56 (2011 ka low) se 125.85 (2015 ka high) aur 102.58 se 100% projection se upar mazeed trading 152.87 tak rasta banaega 138.2% projection tak 172.08. (Ye sirf technical nazriya hai Japan ki dakhal dahi ke baghair.

Traders ke liye maharatmand risk management ka istemal azmati maali markets mein kamiyabi ke liye lazmi hai. Ek aham pehlu jo traders ko dhyan se ghor karna chahiye, wo hai position sizing. Har trade ke liye maqool miqdaar ka capital tay karna, trading account ke size ke mutabiq, traders ko overall portfolio performance par individual nuqsan ka asar kam karne mein madad karta hai. Ye amal ye asar deta hai ke koi bhi akeli trade account balance par kisi bhi tabah kun asar ka imkaan nahi rakhta, agar wo nuqsan bhi ka baes banta hai. Masalan, ek trader jo $100,000 ka trading account rakhta hai, wo faisla kar sakta hai ke har ek trade par apne account balance ka zyada se zyada 2% risk kare. Iska matlab hai ke har trade ke liye, wo sirf apne capital ka $2,000 tay karega. Is risk management ka qanoon ka paalan kar ke, trader ye ensure karta hai ke agar trade unke khilaf jaaye aur nuqsan ho, to iska overall account balance par koi tabah kun asar nahi hoga.



Is ke ilawa, ek mukhtalif aset class mein invest karna bhi risk management ka ek aur lazmi hissa hai. Diversification investments ko mukhtalif aset classes, industries, aur geographic regions mein taqseem karna hai, taake kisi bhi akeli investment ya risk factor ke exposure ko kam kiya ja sake. Apne portfolio ko diversify kar ke, traders kisi bhi ek shobha mein nuqsan se doosri shobha mein faiday hasil kar sakte hain, overall returns ko mustatil karne mein madad milti hai aur market ki volatiliyat ka asar kam hota hai. Masalan, ek akeli stock ya sector mein apna poora capital jama karne ke bajaye, ek trader apne investments ko stocks, bonds, commodities, aur currencies mein taqseem kar sakta hai. Wo har aset class ke andar bhi diversify kar sakta hai, jaise ke large-cap aur small-cap stocks, government aur corporate bonds, waghera. Is tarah, agar koi sector ya aset class kamyaabi ka raasta chhod deta hai, to portfolio par musbat asar ko nuqsan ke faidamand asar se kam kiya ja sakta hai.

Usd/jpy
Pichlay Jummay ko trading mein hum ne dekha ke 153.26 ke ooper ek jhooti breakout hui, jo ke exchange rate mein kami ka ishaara hai. Main umeed karta hoon ke rate girte rahega, isliye hum ne pehle se hi 153.20 par ek sale khol liya hai. 153.40 ke upar bhadakne ka maqsad tha ke khareedne walon ko attract karna, lekin ab hum aur girenge. Acha waqt sell karne ka hai jab ke price 152.25 ke local minimum ke neeche gir jaye. Agla upward impulse agar hota hai, to ye darust kar sakta hai ke ek sale karni chahiye. Aise growth ke baad, agar abhi ke se bhi ooncha ho sakta hai, to girawat jari rahegi. 151.80 ke range ke neeche breakthrough aur consolidation, ye aur ek ishaara hai ke ab waqt hai bechnay ka. 152.80 tak pohanchne ke baad, girawat jari rahegi. Hum shayad 151.80 ke local minimum ke neeche breakthrough aur consolidation kar sakein, jo ke humein bechnay ka ek behtareen waja de sakta hai agar hum isse breakthrough kar sakein. Jab price 152.80 ke range ke neeche gir aur uske neeche consolidate hota hai, tab market girte rahega aur ye ek behtareen waqt hota hai bechnay ka. Rate ka girna 152.15 ke neeche ek behtareen waqt hota hai sellers ke liye. Agar aur ek upward impulse hota hai, to aap aur girenge. Pichlay Jummay, American session ek halki izafa ke saath shuru hui 152.78 par, phir ek aur girawat aayi. Hum local minimum range ko 152.85 mein bid mein breakthrough kar sakte hain. Agar hum uske neeche rehte hain, to humein bechna chahiye. USD/JPY pair ne pichlay Jummay ko ek phir se taqat hasil ki, 18-dinon ke SMA ke qareeb support dhoondhte hue 152.80 par. Ye confirm kiya gaya ek test ke saath 152.50 Jummay subah, jo ke peechle downtrend ka 50.2% Fibonacci retracement ke saath milta hai. 100-dinon ke moving average 151.70 tak pohanch sakta hai, aur hum 61.8% Fibonacci level 151.45 tak bhi hasil kar sakte hain jab hum 151.00 ke dar par pohanchte hain. RSI aur MACD barh rahe hain, jo ke increased buying pressure ko darust karta hai. Pair ke 200-dinon ke simple moving average ko par karne ki koshishon ke bawajood, chaar ghante ke chart par downside risks wazeh hain. 20-d aur 50-d moving averages ke darmiyan gap ka tang hona aur 20-d aur 50-d moving averages ke darmiyan bullish crossover ke wajood se, ye indication hai ke haal ki rally ulta ho sakti hai.

USDJPY


Pichle haftay ko agar koi kahe, to keh sakta hai ke woh flat tha. Shumara 150.88 ko update karne ki taraf ka koi iqtedaar nahi hua, balkay Thursday ko uttar waqai may cancel ho gaya, haalaankay Friday ko iraada lotane ki koshish hui, lekin yeh bhi nakam rahi. Intreday mein, uttar dobara cancel ho gaya aur trading aakhirkaar America ki session ki nizamat par band hui, jo ke Monday ke trading ke khulne par dakhil honay walay darusti ko tasdeeq karti hai. Aam tor par, daku 150.05 ke level ko tasdeeq karenge. Lekin oversold hai, isliye woh upar se wapas shuru ho sakte hain, sellers ke liye sab se zaroori yeh hai ke 150.72 se ooncha na jaye, jahan dakun cancel ho jayega. Agar 150.35+- ke taraf wapas chalein, to yeh ek mA ki jam'aaat hai aur ek level hai jahan intraday samay par ek sell signal mila tha, jo ki test ki zaroorat hai. Aur sath hi ek behtar qeemat par bechnay ka bhi ek acha mauqa hoga. Nazdeeki nichlay target hai 149.49. Mujhe yeh wazeh karna chahiye, yeh bilkul Monday ke liye hai. Jab baat manzar-e-ama aur darmiani muddat ki hoti hai, is haftay hum pehlay retracement level 149.95 tak pohanch gaye aur isay toorna, aur lagta hai ke woh wahan ruk nahi jayenge, agla level 148.84 (din ka waqt) par hai. Yahan ek ooncha hone ka rebound mumkin hai. Lekin zyadatar hum giravat ka silsila dekhenge, aur yeh sab isliye ke haftay ke dauran giravat ke level 147.71 par hai. Main is marhale mein mazeed nichay dekh nahi raha hoon, kyunki shumara trend mazboot hai aur aasani se toot nahi sakta, isliye yahan phir bhi izaafa hoga. Dakun ki dakhal mukammal hone ke baad, main umeed karta hoon ke taraqqi dobara shuru hogi. Achi trading.

Technically dekha jaye to, D1 waqt frame par USDJPY ke price chart mein kuch khaas patterns aur levels nazar aate hain. Traders mukhtalif key support aur resistance levels, saath hi trend lines aur moving averages ko ahtiyaat se nigrani karte hain, taake potential entry aur exit points ko pehchan sakein. Mazboot bullish momentum ka mojooda halaat se wazeh hai ek silsila ke higher highs aur higher lows ke zariye, jo market mein barqarar khareedari dabao ko zahir karta hai. Macro-economic aur technical factors ke ilawa jo USDJPY ke price action par asar dalte hain, unmein geoplitical events aur market sentiment bhi shamil hote hain. Geoplitical events ke saath judi be-peshiyan, jaise ke tijarati tensions ya geo-political conflicts, volatility mein izafa aur market sentiment mein na-mawafiq tabdeeliyan paida kar sakti hain. Isliye, traders ko mutasir rehna chahiye aur apni trading strategies ko is ke mutabiq adjust karna chahiye. Mojudah USDJPY ki D1 waqt frame par tajziya ek darmiani muddat ka bullish trend ki taraf isharat karta hai jo macroeconomic factors, technical indicators aur market sentiment ke combination ke zariye chal raha hai. Lekin traders ko mahtat rahna chahiye aur taraqqi ko qareeb se nigrani mein rakhna chahiye kyunke ghair mutawaqqi haadse ya investmen sentiment mein tabdeeliyaan mojoodah trend mein tabdeeliyaan la sakti hain.

USDJPY Daily Time Frame

Yahan par D1 waqt ka frame dekhte hue, uttar ki taraf is raaste ko barqarar rakhne ki kafi sambhavna hai, kyun ke D1 muddat dikhata hai ke moving average kafi kam level par hai aur uttar ki taraf 154.33 ka nishana hai, jo ke is raaste mein mazeed phailao ki alamat ho sakti hai Isi doran, rozana ke chart par ek ahem resistance level ka toorna hua, jo ke market mein izafa jari rakhne ki alamat hai Is liye, aaj mujhe ek bullsih movement ka intezar hai, aur agar yeh development hoti hai, toh 153.38 ke level ko toorna zaroori hoga Sirf is ke baad hi hum USD/JPY mein bear ko shikast ka intezar kar sakte hain, jo ke long positions ko 154.33 ke level tak pohanchne ki ijazat dega Hum abhi ek maqami stage mein hain, lekin yeh utna hi tezi se khatam ho sakta hai jitna ki shuru hua Aam trend ke sath, sab kuch zahir ho raha hai

USDJPY H1 Time Frame

Yahan par USDJPY ke H1 chart par dekhte hue, 153.38-152.75 ke darmiyan ki flat ne uptrend ko rukaya hai Is se pehle bhi, ek flat thi aur keemat is se aasani se oonchi hui aur is ke baad bhi 153rd figure tak barh gayi Is ke ilawa, keemat ne Ichimoku Cloud indicator ke dono shor se oopar ruk gayi hai, jo ke muntazir kharidariyon ki alamat hai, humein neechay ki flat se bhi ek phirrak mili hai, to ab currency pair ke pass sirf ek raasta hai - flat ke upper border ko test karna ek mumkin tor par aur phir uttar ki taraf phailane ki taraf Main ne H1 chart par ek muttafiqat se support ki line bhi kheenchi hai, jis par keemat abhi tak trading kar rahi hai, aur jab tak yeh is tarah se trading kar rahi hai, currency pair barhega, aur agar hum is support line ko neechay paar karte hain, toh hum wapas farokht par chale jate hain, aur phir keemat Ichimoku Cloud indicator ke lower limit ke neeche jayegi To maximum jahan bhi keemat waapas ja sakti hai, woh neeche ki slope wali support line tak hai

Mausam mein ab dollar ajeeb sa hai, aur jab yeh itna kamzor hota hai ke nazar aata hai ke strategy aur zyada neeche ki taraf ja rahi hai, to yeh hairan kun hota hai. Ek khaas meeting thi jis ke liye yeh gir gaya. Kyunki 153.80 toot gaya hai, isay chart par nahi dikhaya ja sakta; yeh toot jata hai aur zyada mumkin hai ke oopar khatam ho jaye. Jab woh waqt aaye, to is par yaqeen karna lazim hai ke affirmatives ki taraf sajde ke liye kaafi time hai taake be-izzati karne wale bull market se bhaag na jayein. Aap ko bhi notice hoga ke is ke baad forward bats ke taqreeban kami ho sakti hai. Naye bunyadiyat lambe arse tak kaam nahi karenge, lekin wo chand dino tak kaam kar sakte hain.





Yeh 153.90 par tha ke Franc ne waziha rukawat ka muqabla kiya. Ab sirf is nishaan ke neeche hi karobar kiya jaye ga. Ussi tarah, jab kisi cheez ka zor toot kar khatam ho jata hai, to woh aik mumkin faida ka zor ban jata hai. Qeemat uttar ki taraf zyada hai, aur dakshin mein yeh nahi hoa hai. Mushabaat ke bawajood, Yahood kabhi bhi franc ki tarah ka rasta nahi chalte, jo asal chaukane wali maal hai. Rukawat mein toot ho chuki hai, aur natije mein, franc ab pehle se zyada 153.50 ke daam ko hasool karega. Isliye, aap ko baad mein koi tajwez ko zyada ghor se samajhna chahiye jitna ke aap ab karte hain. Neeche diye gaye wajahat ke tajwez ke liye main tarjeeh deta hoon.

usd/jpy

Maujooda market mahol mein U.S. dollar ke mukhtalif honay ki sambhavna Japenese yen ke khilaf bohot ahmiyat rakhta hai. Haalaanki, peer ke trading session mein halkay izharat ka pehlu jari hai jo Japenese yen ke khilaf jari mukhalfat ko jari rakhta hai, khaaskar ¥152 ke zaroori resistance level ke khilaf. Is had ki tor par is barrier ko torne ki ahmiyat pehle se zyada hai, aur is kaamyaabi se market ke rukh mein asal tabdeeli hone ki sambhavna hai.

Is maahol ke sath, mandi se faida uthane wale aham asar dalte rahe hain. Neeche ¥150 level aik ahem nafsiyati simat hai, jo ke 50-day EMA ki is support zone tak dherey dherey chadhne se mazeed mazboot hoti hai. Yeh sambhavna U.S. dollar ke chadhne ke liye aik sahara pradaan karta hai, jo ke wazeh hai. Aise aik pattern ke natije mein breakout ka imkaan hai, jis se traders ko Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) trading mein shamil hone ka ghor karne ki tajwez di jati hai jab momentum barh raha hota hai.

Is ke ilawa, market participants mukhtalif interest rate farqon ke liye bohot zyada hassas hain, jo ab U.S. Treasury aur U.S. dollar ke darmiyan barhne wale farq mein dekhe ja rahe hain. Yeh khasiyat rozana volatility ka faida uthane ke liye traders ko encourage karta hai, donon currencies ke liye bullish outlook mein hissa banata hai. Shakhsan, main ek strategy follow karta hoon, market ke tajurbaat ko faqat sahi waqt par shamil ya barhava dete waqt ghur se monitering kar raha hoon. ¥152 resistance ke mazboot toor par torne ka intezaar karte hue, main apni position ko barhane ka irada rakhta hoon aur ¥155 ko pehla target banata hoon.

Magar, is darja ke upar aur bhi izafay ke mumkin hone ki sambhavna ko tasleem karna zaroori hai jo ke interest rate expansion ke daimi asar se chal raha hai. Is tarah, U.S. dollar aur Japenese yen ke takkar ke muamlay mein apni ehtiyaat bhool kar aur market ke tabdeeli ke maqbool hone par apne aap ko mukhtalif bana kar barqarar rehna ahmiyat rakhta hai. Aane wale trends ke mutabiq tayyar ho kar aur maqsood mauqe ka faida uthane se traders apne aap ko currency pair mein mumkin hone wale izafa se faida uthane ke liye position mein rakh sakte hain.

usd/jpy

Japanese yen ka qeemat US dollar ke muqable mein 153.23 tak girte hue rahi, jo ke 34 saalon ki tezi se kamzor hone ki wajah se uski kam tar qeemat thi, jab daryaftati data ne dikhaya ke United States of America mein muashiyati muddaton ka dar zyada se zyada barh gaya, jo keh rai hai ke Federal Reserve ko munafaqat dar ko barqarar rakhne ki zarurat hogi... Maqami interest ki bunyad par. Isi dauran, halan ke haal hi mein kuch tight ho gaya, Japan ka key short-term interest rate 0% se le kar 0.1% tak hai, jo keh carry trades ko barhawa deta hai.

Aam tor par, tajziyatiyon ka khauf hai ke $152 ke tajziyaati darajat, Japani authorities ko Forex currency markets mein dakhal dena par majboor karega. Is lehaz se, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki ne mangal ko kaha ke hukoomat yen ke zyada se zyada harekaton ka samna karne ke liye kisi bhi iqdamaat ko mad e nazar lene ki gawahi nahi degi, apne peechle bayanon mein di gayi tanbeehain dohrate hue.

Dusre lehaz se. 10 saal ke Japanese government bonds ki pedaishi raqam 0.8% se oopar 5 maheene ki bulandiyon tak pohanch gayi, jabke 2 saal ke bonds ki raqam takreeban 0.26% tak uth gayi, jo late 2009 se sab se unchi darja tha, Japani sarkari bond ki raqam barhne ke baad US bonds ki raqam mein izafay ke sath sath Japani sarkari bond ki raqam bhi barh gayi.

Aam tor par, is dar se umeedein ruk gayi hain ke Federal Reserve jaldi interest darom kaat degi. Ab markets ummeed karte hain ke Fed June mein interest darom ko barqarar rakhega aur is saal sirf teen interest darom kaat degi. Japani raqam bhi is haftay barh gayi jab Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda ne kaha ke agar inflation 2% ke aas paas lagataar chal raha hai to Bank of Japan monetary stimulus ko kam kar dega. Unhone Parliament ko kaha ke Bank of Japan labour negotiations ke natayej ke mutabiq mazid mazid izafa dekhne ke liye incoming data ko nigrani karega.

Bank of Japan ne apni policy meeting mein 2007 mein pehli martaba interest darom ko barha diya, 8 saal ke manfi interest rate policy ko khatam kiya. Central bank ne bhi yield curve controls ko chhoda aur asset purchases ko kam kiya.

Aaj ke din US dollar ke muqable mein yen ki qeemat ke imkani tawaqquaat:

Currency pair US Dollar ke muqable mein Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) ki qeemat ka aam trend apne tezi se sharp upar ki taraf mazboot hota ja raha hai aur is ke haal ki kamayi ne tamam technical indicators ko mazboot khareedari ke saturation levels ki taraf le gaya hai. In kamayion ke baad, markets aur investors ki nigahein Japan ki taraf murne lag gayi hain. Kya wo Forex currency markets mein jald aur zor se dakhal denge ke mazeed... Exchange rate ke girne se bachne ke liye. Agar ye hota hai, to ye dollar pair ke muqable mein Japanese yen ke liye mazboot farokht ke amalat layega, jiska trend chand waqt mein bearish ban jayega.

Aam tor par, jaise ke maine zikar kiya, jab tak markets mein Japani dakhal nahi hota, Japani Bank aur US Federal Reserve ki policies ke darmiyan ikhtilaf, sath hi muashi kaarnamayi, bullion ka control ke dollar pair ke muqable mein Japanese yen ki rah ka jari rehna hoga.

USD/JPY

Aaj ke moqay par main USDJPY currency pair par charcha karunga, jo ki pichle kuch mahino se tezi se badh raha hai. Pichle din ke price movement mein, USDJPY pair ne neeche ki taraf jaane ki koshish ki, lekin price ne doosre support level par 152.54 par pravesh karne aur band karne mein nakami ki. Price is level se rebound hui aur phir se apne opening price tak chali gayi kal. Is situation ko dekhte hue, kya USDJPY currency pair ke upar jaane ki ishaaraat hain? Kya agle haftay ki shuruaat par wapas aayegi ya phir price sidha chalegi, mazeed tafseelat ke liye, chaliye neeche diye gaye Monthly time frame chart ko ek saath dekhte hain:

Upar di gayi chart se, maine kuch mansik star banaye hain jo agle price movements mein guzar jaane ki sambhavna hain, jaise ke price 146.40, 150.85, 152.60, aur 154.20, phir RSI indicator (14) par ek divergent pattern ka bhi hona sambhav hai, haalaanki ye abhi bilkul valid nahi hai, lekin meri ray mein star ki sahiyat kareeb 70% hai, isliye humein sirf bearish candle ka intezaar karna hoga jo divergent ko confirm kare. Trend ke hawale se, USDJPY pair abhi bhi bilkul clearly bullish hai jahan price 50 period MA line se bahut door chal rahi hai, isliye maujooda analysis data ke adhar par aur doosre sahayak factors ko jodkar, main ye nateeja nikalta hoon ke agle haftay tak USDJPY pair ko kam se kam level tak tezi se badhne ka predication hai jo ek price of 154.20 ke upar hai, isliye trading option buy hai, jab tak price us level tak pahunchti hai, agar price us level ke upar band nahi hoti jaise ke H4 aur niche TF se dekha jata hai toh hum sell kar sakte hain take profit ke liye mansik star 152.60 par. Ye sab main is moqay par share kar sakta hoon, agar koi aur kuch add karna chahta hai, toh main khush aamdeed kehta hoon, shukriya aur sab ko shubhkamnayein.

USD/JPY

USDJPY ka daily time frame dekhnay par maloom hota hai ke direction ko uttar ki taraf banaye rakhne ka bohot zyada imkan hai, kyun ke D1 muddat dikhata hai ke moving average ka level kaafi kam hai aur uttar ka nishan 154.33 par hai, jo ke is direction mein mazeed movement ko darust kar sakta hai. Isi dauran, daily chart par ek ahem resistance level ka toot gaya hai, jo ke market mein mazeed izafa ko darust karta hai. Isliye, aaj mein ek bullish movement ki umeed rakhta hoon, aur agar yeh development hota hai, toh 153.38 ke level ko paar karne ki zaroorat hai. Sirf iske baad hi hum USD/JPY mein bears ko maat dekh sakte hain, jo long positions ko 154.33 ke level tak pohanchne ki izazat dega. Hum abhi ek muqami darja mein hain, magar yeh utni jaldi khatam ho sakta hai jitni jaldi shuru hua. Aam trend ke saath, sab kuch zyada wazeh hone lagta hai.



H1 chart par USDJPY mein:

Yahaan H1 chart par, USDJPY ka uttar ki taraf trend 153.38-152.75 ke flat se rokha gaya hai. Is se pehle bhi ek flat tha aur price is se asaani se upar jaake 153rd figure tak barh gaya tha. Saath hi, price ne Ichimoku Cloud indicator ke dono borders ke ooper rok diya hai, jo ke mukhtalif khareedariyon ko signal karta hai, humein neeche ke flat se rebound bhi mila hai, isliye ab currency pair ka sirf ek rasta hai - flat ke upper border ko test karna aur shayad usko tod kar mazeed uttar ki taraf movement karna. Mein H1 chart par ek inclined support line bhi draw kiya hai, jis ke ooper price abhi tak trade kar raha hai, aur jab tak yeh aise hi trade karta rahega, currency pair badhega, aur agar hum is support line ko neeche cross kar lete hain, toh hum wapas selling mein chale jayenge, aur phir price Ichimoku Cloud indicator ke lower limit ke neeche jaayega. Isliye, zyada se zyada, price ka roll back ke liye sirf lower sloping support line tak ja sakta hai.

Usd/jpy



Aaj ke mauqe par main USDJPY currency pair ke baare mein baat karunga, jo pichle kuch mahinon se tezi se badh raha hai. Pichle dinon ke bhav mein, USDJPY pair ne neeche gira, lekin keemat ne doosre samarthan star ko 152.54 par ghusne aur waha band hone mein asafal raha. Keemat is star se uthkar phir se apne kal ke khulne ki keemat tak pahunchi. Is sthiti ko dekhte hue, kya USDJPY currency pair ke upar jaane ka ishaara hai? Aane waale saptaah ya keemat keval ek taraf chalegi, aur adhik jaankaari ke liye, chaliye saath mein maheenai samay rekhankan dekhte hain:

Upar diye gaye chart se, maine bhavishya mein keemat ke chalne waale moolyaano ke kuch manasik star banaye hain, jinmein shamil hain 146.40, 150.85, 152.60, aur 154.20 ke moolyaan, phir RSI indicator (14) par ek virodhi pranali banne ki sambhavna hai, haalaanki yah abhi bahut pramanik nahin hai, lekin meri raay mein star 70% ke aaspaas hai, isliye humein sirf virodhi pranali ko pushti karne ke liye bearish mombti ka intezaar karna hai. Taar par, USDJPY pair abhi bhi bahut saaf roop se bullish hai jahan keemat 50 periods MA rekha se bahut door chal rahi hai, isliye maujud analysis data ke adhar par aur phir anya sahayak karkon ko jodkar, main yah anuman lagata hoon ki agle saptaah USDJPY pair mein vruddhi hoti rahegi kam se kam us star tak. Manasik star ke upar jo keemat 154.20 ke moolya hai, isliye vyapar vikalp kharid hai, jab keemat us star tak pahunchti hai, agar keemat us star ke upar band nahin hoti hai jaisa ki chhote samay rekhankan jaise TF H4 aur nichle mein dekha gaya hai, to hum moolyaan ke manasik star par bikri kar sakte hain. Yahi sab main aaj ke mauqe par share kar sakta hoon, agar kisi ko kuch aur add karna hai, toh swagat hai, dhanyavaad aur hum sabhi ki taraf se shubhkaamnayein.

USD/JPY Trading Analysis:

151.81 ka imtehaan, jo MACD line ke barhte hue zero se milta tha, ek khareedne ka signal dene ke baad, qeemat mein 15 pips ki izafa ka sabab bana. Thori der baad, jode par dabaav wapas aaya.

Japan ke maal ki farahmi mein kamzor data aur Fed Chairman Jerome Powell ke mukhtalif izhaar ke bawajood, dollar ek horizontal range ke andar trading mein reh gaya, hissa tor par US services sector ke kamzor PMI data ki wajah se, jo jode ki upri keemat ki aasmani mumkinat ko mehdood kar deta hai. Is range ke bahar sirf ek tezi USD/JPY mein mazboot movement ko le kar jayega.

Lambi positions ke liye:

151.76 (chart par sabz line) par price pohonchne par khareedain aur 152.02 par nafa haasil karein. Agar kharidne wale upri channel ke upri hudood ko tor den to izaafa ho sakta hai.

Kharidte waqt, yaqeeni banayein ke MACD line zero ke upar ho ya se upar ki taraf ja raha ho. Mazeed, 151.61 par do musalsal price tests ke baad bhi USD/JPY kharidne ka tawazo rakhein, lekin MACD line oversold area mein honi chahiye taake market 151.76 aur 152.02 ki taraf palat jaye.

Chhoti positions ke liye:

Price 151.61 (chart par laal line) tak pohonchne par bechen aur 151.36 par nafa haasil karein. Ek unsuccessful koshish ke baad dabaav wapas aayega ke saalana bulandi ke ird gird jamaa hone ki koshish ke baad.

Bechte waqt, yaqeeni banayein ke MACD line zero ke nichle ho ya se neeche ki taraf ja raha ho. Mazeed, 151.76 par do musalsal price tests ke baad bhi USD/JPY bechne ka tawazo rakhein, lekin MACD line overbought area mein honi chahiye taake market 151.61 aur 151.36 ki taraf palat jaye.

Chart par kya hai:

Patli sabz line - entry price jahan se aap USD/JPY khareed sakte hain

Mota sabz line - samjhi gayi price jahan se aap Take-Profit (TP) set kar sakte hain ya haath se munafa fix kar sakte hain, kyunke is se aage ki izaafa mumkin nahi hai.

Patli laal line - entry price jahan se aap USD/JPY bech sakte hain

Mota laal line - samjhi gayi price jahan se aap Take-Profit (TP) set kar sakte hain ya haath se munafa fix kar sakte hain, kyunke is se neeche ki giraawat mumkin nahi hai.

MACD line- market mein dakhil hone se pehle overbought aur oversold areas par tawajjo dena ahem hai

Ahem: Naai traders ko bazaar mein dakhil hone ke faislo par bohot ehtiyaat se kaam karna chahiye. Ahem reports ke release se pehle, bazaar mein rehna behtar hai taake rate ke tezi mein fasne se bacha ja sake. Agar aap khabron ke release ke doraan trade karna decide karte hain, to hamesha stop orders lagayein takay nuqsaan ko kam kiya ja sake. Stop orders lagane ke bagair, aap apna pura deposit bohot jald kho sakte hain, khaaskar agar aap money management ka istemal nahi karte aur bade volumes mein trade karte hain.

Aur yaad rakhein ke kamyabi ke liye, aapke paas ek wazeh trading plan hona chahiye. Haalat ke mutabiq spontani trading faisle ek muddai trader ke liye haar ka baais ban sakti hai.