EUR/USD Analysis
Tuesday Ka Din: EUR/USD pair ne Tuesday ko pehle din ke hisson mein koi bhi correction ka attempt nahi kiya. General taur par, euro rozana khud ko barhate ja raha hai jaise yeast ki tarah. Filhaal dollar ke paas sirf 50-60 pips ki correction ki ummeed hai. Isliye, technical picture wahi hai jo pehle thi.
Naye Mood Ka Asar: Lekin ab currency analysts aur experts ke mood mein tabdeeli aa rahi hai. Pair rozana barh rahi hai, aur is movement ka koi explanation zaroori hai. Lekin jab koi news ya report nahi hoti, to isko kaise explain karein? Classic explanations aa rahi hain jaise "risk appetite ka barhna" ya "Federal Reserve ke hawale se dovish expectations ka barhna." Asal mein, yeh dono phrases se har movement ko explain kiya ja sakta hai.
Dollar Ki Movement: Jab US dollar bina kisi clear reason ke girta hai, to kehte hain "market mein risk appetite barh raha hai." Aur agar US dollar bina kisi visible cause ke barhta hai, to kehte hain "market mein risk appetite kam ho raha hai." Yeh pura puzzle hai. Jo factors risk appetite ko trigger karte hain, woh kabhi bhi fully explain nahi kiye jaate. Aur risk appetite ko predict karne ka tareeqa bhi ek raaz hai. Humari nazar mein, zyada tar experts har movement ko bas retrospectively explain karte hain. Asal mein, EUR/USD pair barh raha hai sirf isliye kyunki isko kharida ja raha hai.
Market Ki Reality: Yeh zaroori hai ke market ko bade players chalate hain, jo millions aur billions dollars ki transactions karte hain. Yeh bade players, jo various banks aur major funds hain, market aur prevailing sentiment ke baare mein retail traders se zyada information rakhte hain. Unke paas prices ko influence karne aur apni desired direction mein steer karne ki power hoti hai. Aur unki desired direction aam traders ko nahi batayi jaati, jo news aur reports ko diligently analyze karte hain. Market makers bhi shayad news, reports aur events ko consider nahi karte. Unke liye yeh zaroori nahi hai.
Volatility Aur Predictions: August 21 tak EUR/USD ki average volatility 59 pips hai, jo ke average consider kiya jata hai. Hum expect karte hain ke pair Wednesday ko 1.1052 aur 1.1171 ke levels ke beech move karega. Linear regression ka upper channel upar ki taraf directed hai, lekin global downtrend abhi bhi barqarar hai. CCI indicator teesri baar overbought area mein gaya hai, jo sirf trend reversal ke downside par nahi, balki current rise ki illogicality ko bhi warn karta hai.
Nearest Support Aur Resistance Levels:
- Support Levels:
- S1 – 1.1047
- S2 – 1.0986
- S3 – 1.0925
- Resistance Levels:
- R1 – 1.1108
- R2 – 1.1169
- R3 – 1.1230
Trading Recommendations: EUR/USD pair ek global downward trend ko maintain kar raha hai, lekin 4-hour time frame mein upward movement dobara shuru hui hai naye macroeconomic reports aur market ke euro ko buy karne aur dollar ko sell karne ki lagataar koshish ki wajah se. Pichle reviews mein, humne sirf euro se declines ki umeed ki thi medium term mein, lekin ab current rise thodi mockery lagti hai. Magar yeh bhi sach hai ke price upward movement mein hai, aur iske khatam hone ke koi signs nahi hain. Market har mauke ka faida utha rahi hai, lekin technical picture warn karti hai ke local upward trend ka khatam hone ke chances hain.
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