𝐆𝐁𝐏/𝐔𝐒𝐃

Is hafte, GBP/USD ki qeemat do mukhtalif channels mein trade kar rahi hai. In mein se aik negative channel hai jo ke red rang mein hai aur pichlay haftay ke doran qeemat ke negative corrective movement ko dikhata hai. Yeh is baat ki nishani hai ke humare paas aik blue channel bhi hai, jo yeh batata hai ke pichlay do hafton ke doran qeemat ne bullish direction mein movement ki hai.

Filhaal, qeemat ne red channel ke beech ki line se support hasil karte hue, channel ke upper line par trade karna shuru kar diya hai, jahan se yeh is hafta isay break karne ki koshish kar rahi hai aur apni upward trend ko continue karna chah rahi hai. Green line ke zariye dikhaye gaye upward potential ke mutabiq, yeh red channel ke upar chali jati hai aur weekly resistance level 1.2755 ko touch karti hai, jo weekly pivot level 1.2720 ke qareeb hai. Yeh mumkin hai ke agar qeemat red channel ko break kar deti hai aur wapas retest karne ke liye drop hoti hai, phir se upar chali jati hai, to yeh pattern follow kar sakti hai.

Doosri taraf, girti hui red line yeh suggest karti hai ke agar qeemat blue channel ko break kar deti hai aur kai martaba usay retest karte hue neechay chali jati hai, to usay downfall ka samna ho sakta hai. Agar rising price red channel ko break kar ke upar chali jati hai, to aap ko intezar karna chahiye ke qeemat wapas channel line par aati hai aur phir se upar jati hai, jahan target level weekly resistance level 1.2765 ke neeche determined hota hai, jo ke successful retest pattern banata hai.

Yeh zaroori hai ke qeemat blue channel ko break kar ke neeche trade karein taake selling pattern mein dakhil ho sakein, jahan target level red channel ke lower limit ke upar hota hai, jo ke selling pattern mein dakhil hone ke liye ek ahem nishani hai.

Akhir mein, GBP/USD ke is analysis ke mutabiq, qeemat mein ya to bullish movement continue reh sakti hai agar red channel break ho jata hai, ya phir bearish movement ki imkaanat hai agar blue channel break hota hai. Traders ko is baat ka khayal rakhna chahiye ke kis taraf market move karti hai taake sahi decision le sakein.

Aaj ke din GBP/USD ke analysis ke mutabiq, level 1.2680 resistance ke tor par kaam karna chahiye aur main yeh tasavor kar raha hoon ke din ke dauran is level tak rollback hoga. Agar resistance 1.2680 ko break na kiya jaa saka, toh main yeh umeed kar raha hoon ke yahan se aik downward impulse 1.2570 ki taraf hoga. Yeh target tak pohanchne ka aaj lagbhag koi chance nahi hai aur zyada imkaan yeh hai ke yeh target agle hafte tak kaam kar payega. Aaj yeh bhi mumkin hai ke price 1.26 ke figure se neeche na jaye, lekin yeh sirf aik assumption hai.

Agar pair 1.2680 ke resistance ko break karne mein kamyab ho jati hai, toh hum 1.2750 ke resistance par wapas aa sakte hain, lekin aaj is resistance ko break karne ki umeed nahi hai. Yeh bhi aik lamba faasla hai aur agle hafte se hi is resistance ko break karne ki koshish hogi. Is liye, agar pair 1.2680 ko break kar ke us ke upar consolidate karti hai, toh hum 1.2750 ke resistance aur 1.2680 ke support ke darmiyan rehne wale hain, jese ke is hafta mein hota aya hai.

Daily chart par GBP/USD currency pair ke analysis ke mutabiq, jaise ke umeed thi, decline continue hua, jese ke inclination thi. Daily aur weekly charts par ek uncertainty ka figure draw kiya ja sakta hai - ek narrowing triangle; abhi is triangle ke upper border se decline ka cycle chal raha hai. Mumkin hai ke hum triangle ke lower border tak jayein, ya kam az kam is ka middle tak pohanch sakte hain, kyun ke is triangle ke middle mein horizontal support level 1.2567 hai, jo ke candles ke closing prices se bana hai. Chahe buyers kitni bhi koshish karein, aakhir mein main yeh samajhta hoon ke qeemat neeche chali jayegi.

Decline expected tha kyun ke ek descending line thi jo triangle ke upper part mein ban rahi thi, aur saath hi is ka ek false breakdown hua, jis ke saath bearish divergence ka formation bhi dekha gaya. Paanch upward waves ka cycle bhi guzra aur is ke baad aksar correction aati hai, jo ke doosri factors ki wajah se support hui. Aakhri wave jo decline hui usne peechli wave ke minimum ko update kiya; MACD indicator ab bhi upper buy zone mein hai, lekin yeh apni signal line ke neeche confidently fall ho raha hai. Mujhe lagta hai ke downward pressure continue rahega, aur yeh indicated target tak 80-90 points tak jayega. Pound ke liye yeh kuch ghanton mein paar karna koi masla nahi, lekin abhi tak pound sluggish dynamics dikhata hai aur moves ka faasla zyada nahi hai.

Aaj ke din US ke liye bhi news sets available hain: 16-45 Moscow time par US Manufacturing PMI, US Composite PMI from S&P Global, aur US Services Sector Purchasing Index (PMI) hain. 17-00 par Sales on the secondary housing market in the USA aur Index of leading economic indicators in the USA hain. 18-00 par US Federal Reserve ka monetary policy par report hoga.

GBP/USD Price Movement

Aaj hum GBP/USD currency pair ke price movement ka tajziya karenge. Pichle haftay mein, hourly chart par pound-dollar ne 1.26534 ke trading level par girawat shuru ki. Is level ke qareeb rebound karke yeh 1.27541 ke resistance ki taraf barh gaya. Is resistance tak pohanchne ke baad, yeh wapas 1.26534 ke trading level par aa gaya. Thursday ke akhir tak, yeh level tak wapas aa gaya tha. Friday ke din shuru hone par, yeh chhoti si range mein trade kar raha tha, lekin baad mein is level ko break karte hue, 1.25324 ke support ki taraf sell signal generate kiya. Yeh sell signal Monday tak relevant rahega. Jaise ke baqi bade currencies, pound bhi haftay ke akhir mein bearish raha, jis se US dollar ko kuch losses recover karne ka mauka mila. Pichle mahine ke dauran, Sterling 1.2804 aur us ke neeche ke price range mein fluctuate karta raha, jahan support 1.2689 par establish hua, jo buyers ki wajah se tha.

Triangle ka horizontal support level 1.2567 par separated hai, jo candles ke closing prices se bana hai. Chahe buyers kitni bhi koshish karein, main yeh samajhta hoon ke price wahaan tak niche chalegi. Decline expected tha kyun ke ek descending line triangle ko upar se form kar rahi thi, aur is ka false breakdown bhi hua jahan bearish divergence indicators par dekha gaya. Paanch upward waves ka cycle bhi guzra aur us ke baad aksar correction hoti hai, jo ke doosri factors ki wajah se support hui. Aakhri wave jo decline hui usne peechli wave ke minimum ko update kiya; MACD indicator ab bhi upper buy zone mein hai, lekin confidently apni signal line ke neeche fall ho raha hai. Mujhe lagta hai ke downward pressure continue rahega, aur indicated target tak 80-90 points tak pohanch sakta hai. Pound ke liye yeh kuch ghanton mein paar karna koi masla nahi, lekin abhi tak pound sluggish dynamics dikhata hai aur moves ka faasla zyada nahi hai.

Aaj ke din US ke liye bhi kuch news sets hain: 16:45 Moscow time par US Manufacturing PMI, US Composite PMI from S&P Global, aur US Services Sector Purchasing Index (PMI) release hoga. 17:00 par, USA ke secondary housing market par sales aur leading economic indicators ka index release hoga. 18:00 par, US Federal Reserve ki monetary policy par report aayegi.

GBP/USD Analysis

Thursday ko English Pound (GBP) ne US Dollar (USD) ke muqable mein ek madadgaar support banaye rakha, ek naye girawat ke bawajood. GBP/USD exchange rate ne tab girawat dekhi jab USD mazboot hua, lekin phir bhi yeh 1.2600 ke mentally significant level ke upar rehne mein kamiyab raha. Yeh support tab ubhar kar samne aaya jab US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke greenback ki majbooti ko major currencies ke against measure karta hai, ek naye aath hafte ke high se mundarij hua. USD ki current strength shayad temporary hai. Investors cautious approach ikhtiyar kar rahe hain kyunki Friday ko crucial inflation data release hone wala hai. Yeh data, jo ke core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index hai, expected hai ke inflation ki slow down ki ishaara dega. Yeh Federal Reserve ko interest rates cut karne par majboor kar sakta hai, ek scenario jo market expectations mein pehle se shamil hai. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, traders September tak do rate cuts ki umeed rakhte hain.

Jabke GBP/USD pair ka short-term trend uncertain hai, technical levels significant insights provide karte hain. Agar current pullback barqarar raha, to pair 1.2655 par support dhoond sakta hai, uske baad 1.2620 aur 1.2598 - ek area jo January aur March mein majboot raha. Doosri taraf, agar pair rebound hota hai to resistance 1.2771 ko challenge kar sakta hai, jo shayad 1.2816-1.2859 range ki testing ko lead karega. Yeh range naye teen mahine ke highs aur December 2023 ke high se defined hai. Agar is area ko break kiya, to 2024 ke highs jo ke 1.2892 ke aas-paas hain, tak bhi return ka raasta khul sakta hai.

General taur par, GBP/USD pair ek back-and-forth mein phansa hua hai. US dollar ek taraf apni strength dikhata hai, jabke doosri taraf, loose US monetary policy ki expectations Pound ko support kar rahi hain. Pair ki agle move ka depend Friday ke inflation data par hoga. Agar inflation mein significant lull hota hai to investors ko zyada aggressive rate cuts ki umeed ho sakti hai, jo Pound ke liye results ko steer kar sakta hai. Magar, agar inflation unexpected increase dikhata hai to USD ki strength phir se barh sakti hai aur GBP/USD pair ko neeche dhakel sakta hai.

GBP/USD Pair ki Analysis

GBP/USD pair ne ek bar phir se northward correction dikhaya hai, jo ke downward four-hour trend ki general line ke muqablay mein ho raha hai. Yeh correction UK GDP data ke upward revision ke bawajood aayi hai jo ke pound ko growth dene mein madadgar sabit hui. Main is situation se guzra hoon kai dafa, aur phir maine net ko bechna band kar diya. Agar prediction galat ho, to foran nuksaan bear karna behtar hai, na ke price ko ek haftay tak negative move karte hue dekhna. GBP/USD ke liye, upward rollback shayad khatam ho gaya hai, aur south ki confirmation mil chuki hai. Ab sab kuch American dollar ke evening data par depend karega. Sabse zaroori baat yeh hai ke din aur medium term mein kya tabdeeliyan hongi, yeh samajhna zaroori hai. Aaj kisi catch ki ummeed nahi hai kyunki humein yeh pata hai ke southern flow kahan kamzor ho sakta hai.

Halaanki, yeh mana ja raha hai ke Bank of England August mein rate cuts shuru karega, jabke US Federal Reserve aise kisi step ko zyada waqt ke liye defer karega. Is liye, July options ke borders forex par OI 1.2692-1.2592 ke beech set kiye gaye hain; in borders mein flat movement hai. Upper border aur iski premium 1.2714 ko test kiya gaya hai, lekin lower border 1.2592 aur iski premium 1.2554 abhi tak test nahi hui hai, isliye priority flat movement ki hai jisme decrease ko zyada ahmiyat di gayi hai. Main ne kal iske bare mein post kiya aur ek tasveer draw ki. Aaj weekly contract ka expiration shaam ko paanch baje hai, isliye 1.2642 pe puts ko money mein nahi lana chaahte. Shayad price ko higher hold karne ki koshish kar rahe hain, shayad apni premium 1.2627 ke niche expiration ke waqt. Yeh zyada logical hoga agar price ko max Payne 1.2692 tak uthaaya jaye, lekin yeh tab hi mumkin hai agar resistance 1.2659 aur 1.2674 break hoti hai; warna, 1.2659-1.2674 ke range se phir se decline 1.2592-1.2580 tak aa sakti hai. Agar kuch nahi toot'ta, to mujhe price 1.2600 aur uske baad main trend ke saath neeche dekhne ki umeed hai. Main ne Wednesday ko position close kar diya tha aur phir se open nahi kiya. Main news ke saath friendly nahi hoon. Agar trend confirm hota hai, to upward rollbacks short position enter karne ke liye kaafi honge; indicators trend ko confirm karte hain. Agar direction change hoti hai, to naya support level form hone ka intezaar karna padega. Isliye aaj ke liye, fence position banaye rakhein.

British Pound ne Wednesday ko US Dollar ke muqablay mein kuch faida hasil kiya, jo ke iski recent rebound ko barhawa de raha hai. Yeh izafa US ke kamzor economic data ki wajah se aaya. Ek aham indicator, US Services Purchasing Managers' Index (ISM), June mein 48.8 tak gir gaya jo ke do saalon mein sabse kam hai aur service sector ki contraction ko darshata hai. Yeh data, sath hi unemployment claims mein izafa, US economy ke gloomy picture ko samne laya aur US Dollar ko kamzor kiya. Lekin, pound ke future trajectory abhi bhi uncertain hai. Aane wale US Independence Day holiday ke bawajood Thursday ko currency markets mein kuch volatility dekhi ja sakti hai jabke British markets open rahengi.

Iske ilawa, UK parliamentary elections bhi shuru hone wale hain jo pound ke value ko impact kar sakte hain. Opinion polls heavily Labor Party ki victory ko favor kar rahe hain, jo ke 14 saal ke Conservative rule ko khatam kar sakti hai. Agar Labor leader Keir Starmer Prime Minister bante hain, to yeh UK ke economic aur political landscape ko significant tor par tabdeel kar sakta hai. Aisi dramatic shift ki possibility investors ko short term mein cautious rakhegi.

Current rebound ke bawajood, technical indicators yeh suggest karte hain ke pound ka upward momentum temporary ho sakta hai. Short-term indicators jaise ke RSI (Relative Strength Index) aur MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) ne abhi tak downtrend ke reversal ki clear signal nahi di hai. Agar downtrend resume hota hai, to pound 1.2610 ke around apne support level ko revisit kar sakta hai, jo ke crucial 200-day moving average of 1.2570 ke qareeb hai. Further decline ke sath, pound 1.2465 ya usse bhi niche ja sakta hai, shayad apne long-term trading range ke bottom 1.2300 ko retest karte hue.

In conclusion, pound ka recent rise against the dollar ek positive sign hai, lekin iska future direction kai factors par depend karega. UK elections ka outcome aur US economy ki health aane wale hafton mein pound ki value ko determine karne mein aham role play karenge.

GBP/USD Currency Pair Review:

GBP/USD currency pair suddenly upar chala gaya jab US Federal Reserve ke head ne aise bayanat diye jo analysts aur market participants ke liye interest rates ko September mein kam karne ke imkaan ko barhate hue nazar aaye. Is ke natije mein, stock prices barh gayi aur dollar broadly kamzor ho gaya, jab Jerome Powell ne European Central Bank's Forum on Central Banks ko bataya ke inflation par khaasi progress hui hai aur disinflation process dobara track par aa gaya hai.

Unho ne yeh bhi kaha ke agar labor market "ghaflan kamzor" ho jati hai, to is se Fed ko bhi respond karna parega.

Investors soch rahe hain ke kya Fed September mein US interest rates ko kam kar sakega, aur is wajah se dollar gir gaya jab aise outcome par confidence barh gaya. Forex market trading ke mutabiq, GBP/USD pair Powell ke comments ke baad Sintra, Portugal mein ek committee ke saamne 1.2688 ke resistance tak pohnch gaya, jab ke din ke shuruat mein yeh 1.2615 tak bhi gaya tha.

Dauran, Sainsbury's shares 1.5% gir gaye jab yeh report hui ke unki Argos business mein seasonal sales kamzor hui hain, aur consumer electronics ke demand mein girawat dekhi gayi, jab ke company ne apne forecast ko maintain kiya jo pehle se lower tha.

Sterling Dollar Forecast Today:

Daily chart ke performance ke mutabiq, pound sterling ka US dollar ke muqablay mein (GBP/USD) price koshish kar raha hai ke 1.2600 ke support level ke neeche aur girawat se bach sake taake apni losses ko barhate hue na dekhe. Currency pair ke aise attempts tab tak kamiyab nahi ho sakte jab tak yeh 1.2775 aur 1.2830 ke resistance levels ki taraf move na kare. Aaj currency pair par US Federal Reserve ke aakhri meeting ke minutes ki announcement aur kal British elections ka asar hoga. Yeh bhi d ekhna zaroori hai ke investors risk lene ke liye kitne tayyar hain.

GBP/USD Pair Review:

Yeh pair Thursday tak teen lagataar dinon se positive bias ke saath trade kar raha hai. Filhaal, spot prices mid-1.2750s ke aas-paas gir rahe hain, jo ek modest weekly gain ko darshata hai. Yeh upar ki taraf movement US Dollar (USD) ke subdued price action ke bawajood ho rahi hai.

**Fed's Rate Decision aur Iska Market par Asar:**

Haal hi mein, Federal Reserve ne interest rates ko unchanged rakha, jo ab 5.25%-5.50% ke range mein hain. Yeh faisla ek revised forecast ke saath aaya, jo is saal sirf ek rate cut ka indication de raha hai, jab ke pehle teen rate cuts ki ummeed thi. Yeh tabdeel hoti projections disinflation ke slow progress ke chinta se hai.

**Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke Insights:**

Rate decision ke baad press conference ke doran, Fed Chair Jerome Powell ne cautious optimism ka izhaar kiya. Unho ne kaha ke May ka soft inflation report encouraging hai. Magar, unho ne rate cuts ke liye price pressures ke consistent decline ki zaroorat ko zor diya. Powell ne yeh bhi kaha ke agar labor market conditions soft hoti hain, to Fed rate cuts par tezi se amal karega.

**Technical Outlook for GBP/USD Bulls:**

1.2800 mark ke upar sustained strength aur acceptance zaroori hai. Is level ko breach karne se 1.2861 area ki taraf move ka rasta khul sakta hai, jo earlier in the week ka significant high hai. Is point ke aage continued strength pair ko year-to-date peak near 1.2900 se upar le ja sakti hai aur shayad 1.2955 resistance ko test bhi kar sakti hai, aakhir mein 1.3000 psychological mark ko reclaim karne ki koshish ho sakti hai.

**Downside ke Liye Outlook:**

Agar pair niche ki taraf girta hai, to 1.2613 horizontal zone ke aas-paas support milne ki ummeed hai. Agar yeh support fail hota hai, to pair 1.2600 region tak slide kar sakta hai. Downward trajectory 1.2681 area tak extend ho sakti hai, jo 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke 1.2643 level ke kareeb hai.

GBP/USD ne Wednesday ko apni upward movement dobara shuru ki, jo ke current upward trend ke mutabiq hai. Trend line se wazeh hota hai ke pound mazeed barhne ke iraade mein hai. Magar yeh ab hairat ki baat nahi, kyun ke pound ne kai mahino se lagatar illogical tarteeb mein rise dikhaya hai. Pichle teen quarters mein, hum ne apne readers ka dhyan is baat par dilaya ke pound ke barhne ki koi aqli wajah nahi thi, magar yeh phir bhi barh raha hai.

Wednesday ko phir koi ahem wajah nahi thi ke pound ko kharidne ka faisla kiya jaye, magar market phir bhi bullish rahi. UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) June mein 2.0% barh gayi, jo ke pichle mahine ke barabar thi. Core CPI bhi 3.5% par qaim rahi, jo ke May ke mutabiq thi. Market ne inflation ke ghatanay ki umeed lagayi thi. Magar, yeh koi ahem wajah thi ke pound par naye long positions khol diye jayein? Ab, Bank of England (BoE) yeh samajh sakta hai ke inflation ghatanay se ruk gayi hai aur rate cut mein dair ki zarurat hai! Magar asal mein, agar inflation target level par aa gayi hai, to BoE August mein apna rate kam karne ka faisla le sakti hai. Aur yeh pound ke liye ek bara bearish factor ho sakta hai.

Do trading signals 5-minute timeframe par bane. Pehle, price ne 1.2980-1.2993 ke area ko cross kiya, jo ke buy signal tha, aur phir yeh 1.3043 ke level se takra kar neeche aayi, jo ke sell signal tha. Novice traders dono suratein mein positions open kar sakte the. Pehli surat mein kareeban 20 pips ka faida hua, aur dusri surat mein kareeban 25 pips ka.

Thursday ke liye trading tips: Hourly chart par GBP/USD promising signs dikhata hai ke downtrend form ho sakta hai, magar iska matlab yeh nahi ke local upward trend khatam ho gaya hai. Pair bullish bias dikhata hai, aur yeh ab bhi illogical movements ko show kar raha hai. Iss waqt, pound sterling apne latest local high se upar chala gaya hai aur fundamental backdrop ko nazarandaz kar raha hai. Market lagbhag har report ko British currency kharidne ke liye use kar raha hai.

Thursday ko, pound sterling apni upward movement ko jari rakhne ki koshish kar sakta hai, aur novice traders 1.2980-1.2993 ke area mein signals ke intezar mein rah sakte hain. Agar yeh is level se rebound karta hai, to naye positive trades ban sakte hain. Agar yeh is mark ke neeche qaim hota hai, to yeh aik sluggish fall ko darshata hai.

5M chart par key levels hain 1.2605-1.2633, 1.2684-1.2693, 1.2748, 1.2791-1.2798, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3145. Aaj UK unemployment aur wages par reports release karega, jo ke market naye long positions ke liye use kar sakti hai. US mein applications for unemployment benefits par ek minor report publish hogi. European Central Bank meeting aur ECB Head Christine Lagarde ka speech bhi traders ke sentiment ko affect kar sakti hai.

**GBP/USD Price Assessment and Profit Potential:**

Hum GBP/USD currency pair ke real-time price assessment ko analyze kar rahe hain. 1-hour chart par mujhe pair ke liye potential buying opportunity nazar aa rahi hai. Price 200 moving average ke upar hai, jo upward momentum ko indicate karta hai. Kal, instrument din ke opening ke upar trade kar raha tha aur high closing ke saath end hua. Market quotes upper Bollinger band ke paas hain, jo ek growing trend aur continued upward movement ki high probability ko suggest karta hai. Main Relative Strength Index (RSI) ka use karta hoon, jo 14 periods ke liye set hai, aur RSI ke 70 se upar (overbought) ya 30 se neeche (oversold) hone par trades se bachne ki koshish karta hoon. Filhaal, RSI buy trades ke liye acceptable hai. Mera target Fibonacci take profit ka 211% hai, jo 1.27088 ke price par hai. Zyada profit ke liye main Fibonacci targets ko follow karunga.

**H4 Chart Analysis:**

H4 chart par GBP/USD ne ek triangle ke bottom ko test kiya aur ab rebound kar raha hai. Powell ki speech significant ho sakti hai; warna yeh flat movement kal tak new block of important dollar news aane tak chal sakta hai. Resistance 1.2641 pe pehla barrier ka kaam kar raha hai. Agar daily close is level ke upar hota hai, to technical buyers attract ho sakte hain, aur agle resistance levels 1.2699 aur 1.2719 ho sakte hain. British pound recent losses se recover kar raha hai aur significant resistance level 1.2601 ke paas correction dikhayi hai. Is recovery ke bawajood, GBP/USD pair abhi bhi pressure mein hai aur 1.2666 ke upar sustain karne mein mushkil ka samna kar raha hai. Currency pair ek range ke andar fluctuate kar raha hai, jahan high 1.2901 tak aur low 1.2301 tak gir chuki hai.

**GBP/USD Pair Review:**

British pound ne naye haftay ki trading ka agaz US dollar ke khilaf mazboot tarike se kiya, magar busy US data calendar aur Britain ke elections kuch volatility barha sakte hain. Forex market trading ke mutabiq, British pound ne US dollar ke khilaf GBP/USD ko resistance level 1.2709 tak barhaya, magar jaldi se apne broader downward trend ki taraf wapas aagaya, aur analysis likhne ke waqt 1.2645 ke aas-paas stable hai.

Reliable trading companies ke platforms ke mutabiq, pound sterling ko European assets ke rise se support mila, kyunki investors ne ye tasalli hasil ki ke Marine Le Pen ki leadership mein National Rally party ko National Assembly mein absolute majority nahi milegi. Weekend elections ke baad unki party ne 33% vote hasil kiya, jo opinion polls ke mutabiq expected 36% se kam tha. General taur par, second round voting ke baad hung legislature ka hona zyada mumkin lag raha hai, kyunki far-left aur center parties anti-Le Pen voting strategy ke liye cooperate karne ke liye tayyar hain. European assets, including British pound, is situation se fayda utha rahe hain.

Technically, British pound ne US dollar ke khilaf GBP/USD 9-day moving average ke upar move kiya, jo mid-June se pair ke liye pehla positive technical development hai. Ye near term mein kuch gains ki potential ko indicate kar sakta hai, jahan 1.27 ek potential target hai. Relative Strength Index 50 (neutral) par hai, lekin ye phir se upar aaya hai (aage ke ghanton mein positive development). Sterling/dollar pair ne bhi 50-day moving average ko break kiya hai, jo pichle hafte mein resistance ka source bana tha.

Agar daily close is level (1.2654) ke upar hota hai, to ye indicate kar sakta hai ke ek constructive technical outlook dobara se shape lene laga hai. Pound ki udaan se ye world ke major investment banks ke dwara predicted middle point ki taraf ja sakti hai.

Economic calendar ke mutabiq, is haftay mein kai releases aur speeches pound ki volatility expose kar sakti hain. Monday ko US ISM manufacturing survey release hoga, jo economic slowdown ke further signs de sakta hai. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Tuesday ko European Central Bank conference mein Sintra, Portugal mein bolenge. Markets unke updated views ko sunna chahenge regarding Fed rate cut in 2024.

Mid-week tak, US Federal Reserve June 11-12 policy meeting ke minutes release karega. Ye markets ko interest rates ke important sawal par zyada clarity dega. Wednesday ko ISM PMI Services Sector Survey bhi release hoga, jo market ko move karne wala data ho sakta hai. Agar data aur appearances ke baad market apni expectations ko September mein interest rate cut ke liye barhati hai, to dollar ki value gir sakti hai. Agar disappointments hoti hain to US dollar strong ho sakta hai. Market filhaal September mein rate cut ke 56% chance ko place kar raha hai.

Is haftay ka highlight Friday ko US non-farm payrolls report hoga. Headline figure 180,000 tak pohnchne ki ummeed hai, jo 272,000 se kam hai. Average hourly earnings June mein 0.3% monthly basis par barhne ki ummeed hai.

Britain ke elections Thursday ko low-risk event hain kyunki Labor party ke jeet ke chances bohot zyada hain aur polls mein kisi shift ka indication nahi hai. Pehla major event jo dekhna hai wo Thursday evening ko 10pm par scheduled exit poll hai, jo recent history mein bohot accurate indicator raha hai. Surprise tab hoga agar Conservatives ki performance strong ho aur “hung parliament” ki situation ho jahan koi party apni majority control na kar sake. Is se pound ki weakness dekhne ko mil sakti hai jab markets uncertainty ke period ko contemplate karenge. Hum ummeed karte hain ke fluctuations short-lived hongi kyunki Labour, Conservatives ya Lib Dems ke spending aur tax plans mein koi radical change nahi hai.

**Price Action Insights: GBP/USD Prices**

Hum GBP/USD currency pair ke dynamic pricing behavior ko real time mein analyze kar rahe hain. GBP/USD ko analyze karte hue, 1.2614 par support kaafi mazboot hai, jo trading instrument ko further girne se rok raha hai. Humne is level se significant rebound observe kiya hai. Agar price 1.2662 ke accumulation zone ko paar kar jaye, to bullish scenario ban sakta hai jo pair ko upar push kar sakta hai. Agar price 1.2681 tak barh jaye aur phir pull back ho jaye bina 1.2662 ke niche girte hue, to pair ke 1.2787 range tak upar jane ka potential abhi bhi hai. Ye scenario mere chart analysis par base hai aur upward momentum ko support karne ke liye significant trading volumes ki zaroorat hai.

Aaj, GBP/USD pair ne 26 June ke local low ko dobara test kiya magar agle target 1.2604 support level tak nahi pohncha aur jaldi se rebound ho gaya. Ye mujhe pair ke future movement par contemplation mein daal raha hai, kyunki downtrend continuation ko confirm karne ke liye minimum breach nahi hua. Filhaal, quotes girne se tez rise kar rahi hain aur 1.2669 tak pohnch gayi hain. Is level ko test karna crucial hai; agar downward reversal hota hai to ye downtrend ke wapas aane ka indication ho sakta hai, jahan naya local maximum previous aur current values se lower ho sakta hai aur pair ko descending channel mein wapas le ja sakta hai. Ideal situation mein, hum GBP/USD exchange rate ko 1.2699 tak barhte dekh sakte hain, magar 1.2700 level ko breach karne se bachna zaroori hai. Jaise ke screenshot mein dikhaya gaya hai, main is level se downward rebound ke liye wait kar raha hoon. Ye approach current market conditions ko dekhte hue realistic strategy hai.

**Forex Pair: GBP/USD Price Action**

Hum filhaal GBP/USD currency pair ke continuous price movements ko analyze kar rahe hain. GBP/USD pair recently sideways movement dikha raha hai. Dekhte hain kya ye sideways trend continue karta hai ya koi aur scenarios possible hain. Technical aspects ko analyze karte hue, moving averages actively buying ka suggest karte hain jabke technical indicators selling ki recommendation dete hain. Outlook neutral hai, jo indicate karta hai ke hum sideways movement ki ummeed rakh sakte hain. Sales 1.2669 ke support level tak gir sakti hain jabke buying 1.2694 ke resistance level tak pohnch sakti hai. Isliye, aaj sideways market ka similar plan follow karna mumkin hai. GBP/USD pair ke monthly chart par ye evident hai ke pair poore saal mein uncertain raha hai, choti choti rises aur falls ke saath.

Global downtrend pullback pichle saal July mein khatam hua jab pair 1.31416 tak barh gaya, aur tab se ye levels tak nahi pohncha. Filhaal, ye 1.266 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai aur higher move karne mein struggle kar raha hai. Aakhir mein, downtrend continue karega, jo pair ko 2022 ke lows ke nazdeek le aayega. Lekin abhi ke liye, pair direction choose karne mein hesitate kar raha hai aur fluctuation continue kar raha hai. Daily chart thoda clearer picture provide karta hai. July 14 ke high se rebound hone ke baad, pair wide range mein move karna shuru ho gaya, jo suggest karta hai ke bade sellers liquidity accumulate kar rahe hain July peak ke neeche. Jab zaroori volumes collect ho jayenge, to pair likely continue declining karega. Ye moment shayad aa gaya hai, magar abhi confirm nahi hua. Phir bhi, ek alternative scenario ke saath ek aur growth attempt bhi mumkin hai, halanke ye kam probable lagta hai.

**GBP/USD Pair Review**

GBP/USD pair ne Wednesday ke early Asian session ke doran teen consecutive sessions ki earnings ke baad 1.2780 mark ke qareeb advance karna shuru kiya hai. Ye steady rise tab aa raha hai jab DXY recovery dikha raha hai aur 105.00 se upar chala gaya hai. Filhaal, GBP/USD 1.2767 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai.

**Profitability Indicators**

US Bureau of Labor Statistics ke taazah data ke mutabiq, US Producer Price Index (PPI) May mein saalana 2.2% barh gaya. Ye figure April ke 2.3% ke comparison mein thoda kam hai, jo pehle 2.2% revise kiya gaya tha. Market expectations 2.5% increase ki thi, isliye actual increase thoda disappointing raha. Core PPI, jo food aur energy prices ko exclude karta hai, May mein 2.3% barh gaya, jo anticipated 2.4% se kam hai. Har mahine PPI May mein 0.2% gir gaya, jabke core PPI unchanged raha.

**Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester ke Insights**

Investors ko Cleveland Fed Bank President Loretta Mester se interest rates par naye insights mili hain, jo CNBC ke saath baat kar rahi thi. Mester ne bataya ke inflation Federal Reserve ke 2% target ki taraf dheere dheere move kar rahi hai. Lekin, unhone emphasize kiya ke inflation ko aur ease karna zaroori hai rate cuts se pehle, jo future financial policy adaptations ke liye ek conservative approach ka suggestion hai.

**Technical Analysis: Potential Downtrend**

Agar pair 100-day moving average (DMA) aur May swing high support 1.2638 ke convergence ko breach karta hai, to downtrend accelerate ho sakta hai. Ye move 100-DMA ko 1.2643 par expose karega, jo ke 1.2600 level ke qareeb hai. Agar further losses hoti hain, to pair 200-DMA tak 1.2594 tak gir sakta hai. Is level ka breach hone se 100-DMA ke convergence ko test karna hoga jo 1.2643 par hai, aur 50-DMA ko 1.2620 ke qareeb challenge karna padega. Ye situations monitor karna dealers ke liye crucial hai jo future market trends ko anticipate aur respond karna chahte hain.

**GBP/USD Analysis: 03.07.2024**

British Pound ke hawale se ek interesting idea samne aaya hai, lekin mujhe ab doubt hai ke yeh follow through hoga ya nahi. Yeh idea day traders aur short-term deals pasand karne walon ke liye hai.

Main abhi local uptrend ko apne idea ke base ke taur par dekh raha hoon. Hourly timeframe par ek signal hai, jismein ek grey bar dikhata hai ke target 1.27058 ke qareeb hai. Coincidentally, M15 par naye buy signal ne bhi wahi targets dikhaye hain, jismein potential ko blue bar se mark kiya gaya hai. Iska matlab hai ke aap M15 idea ko consider kar sakte hain, jabke H1 aur M15 timeframes ke liye targets ko execute karna bhi zaroori hai. M15 par pullback par enter karna behtar hoga, na ke current levels par, isliye ek possible decline ka intezar karna chahiye aur Fibonacci levels ko analyze karke optimal entry point determine karna chahiye.

Yeh zaroori hai ke point potential chhota hai, isliye ek large spread humare calculations aur advantageous entry point ko interfere kar sakta hai. Maine Fibonacci levels ko stop-loss gap ko madde nazar rakh kar setup kiya hai. Isliye, is idea ko 1:3 risk-reward ratio ke sath enter karne ke liye, pullback ka intezar karna chahiye level 1.26814 tak, ya phir level 1.26801 se entry consider karna chahiye, kyunki hum apne targets 1.27058 se pehle close kar sakte hain. Isliye, market se ek deep pullback ki zaroorat hai, lagbhag local minimum tak, jahan par stop-loss place karna chahiye. Yeh bhi note karna zaroori hai ke Pound shayad yeh idea execute kare bina hi chale, aur abhi candles yeh indicate karti hain ke significant pullback ka koi indication nahi hai. Isliye, stop-loss ko chhote buffer ke sath place karna chahiye, 1.26738 level se upar nahi. Har trader apne risk management system ke hisaab se apna risk percentage choose kar sakta hai aur apni position size determine kar sakta hai.

Logically, agar Pound target reach karta hai lekin hamari pending buy limit order ko trigger nahi karta, to order cancel kar dena chahiye taake price ke wapas aane par miss na ho. Agar Pound 3-point targets ko reach nahi karta aur reverse hota hai, to bhi order cancel karna chahiye, kyunki 3 points is pair ke liye margin of error ke andar hain aur confusing situation par trade karna behtar nahi hai, khas taur par H4 timeframe par unclear scenario mein.