The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is currently stable, trading at 0.6605 in the European session, showing a slight decline of 0.14% for the day. Last week, the AUD saw significant gains of up to 1.8%, although much of these gains were subsequently pared back.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday morning. It is widely anticipated that the RBA will maintain its current rate for the fifth consecutive time. The RBA's benchmark rate has been held at a historical average of 4.35% for the past 12 years. Despite active inflation concerns, the RBA has not signaled an immediate need to lower rates. Inflation for the first quarter was reported at 3.6% year-over-year, slightly lower than Q4 2023 but higher than market expectations of 3.4%.
Governor Bullock recently reiterated the RBA's cautious stance, mentioning the possibility of rate hikes if inflation persists unexpectedly. However, given the current economic slowdown, an actual rate hike appears unlikely in the near term, with a rate cut also potentially deferred.
In addition to inflation dynamics, the Australian labor market remains tight, with unemployment below 4% and immigration contributing to sustained job vacancies.
Turning to the US, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined for the third consecutive month to 65.6 in June, down from 69.1 in May and below expectations of 72. This indicates ongoing concerns among consumers despite unchanged inflation expectations at 3.3%.
Technically, for AUD/USD, the pair is currently testing resistance at 0.6617. Further resistance levels lie at 0.6643, while support is seen at 0.6590 and 0.6564.
Traders should monitor the RBA's decision closely for any potential impact on AUD/USD, as well as continue to assess economic data releases for clues on future monetary policy directions in both Australia and the US.
If you have any further questions or need additional analysis, feel free to ask
تبصرہ
Расширенный режим Обычный режим