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AUD/USD Analysis 18 July 2024

Aap kabhi mujhe khush nahi karte, kabhi patli teeron ke sath, kabhi mote teeron ke sath. Subah bakhair, umeed hai ke aaj ka trading din aap ke liye bohot saari kamiyabi le kar aaye.

AUD/USD pair apni technical movement ka lutf utha rahi hai. Kal ke girawat ke baad aur chaar ghanton ke chart par current trading range ki lower limit set karne ke baad, prices wapas upar ki taraf ja rahi hain, ab "hammer" ke neeche hain. Candlestick board ne uncertainty ko door kar diya aur meri expectations ko barha diya. Resistance level 0.6744 ka break hona mumkin hai aur yeh current trading range ki upper limit ko 0.6790 ke area mein indicate karega. Agar bears apni position 0.6744 level ke neeche barqarar rakhte hain, to hum lambi downside move dekh sakte hain, kyunke bears 0.6710 ke support level ke neeche break karna chahenge. Agar prices 0.6710 level ke neeche break kar jaati hain, to hum reversal ke baare mein baat kar sakte hain aur 0.6655 aur 0.6615 levels par movement ke continue hone ki umeed rakhte hain.

Aaj raat ko, Fed ka equity book publish hoga, jahan investors refinancing rate mein tabdeeli ke jawab talash karenge, aur phir latest U.S. consumer prices ka data release hoga, jo ek inflation ka measure hai. Investors ko September mein rate cut ke idea par apni rai doobara ghor karni hogi. Mujhe lagta hai ke Fed ki monetary policy mein tabdeeli ke expectation ko sirf economic perspective se nahi, balke political perspective se bhi dekhna chahiye. Aur yahan H4 chart mujhe itna dilchasp nahi lagta. Mere liye H4 trading behtar hai.

Chaar ghanton ke time frame par price analysis: Candle close 0.6735, Parabola indicator 0.6801, MA indicator 0.6751. Daily candle parabolic line aur moving average ke neeche close hoti hai, jo ka matlab hai ke intraday four-hour time frame par sell signals dekhna behtar hoga.

AUD/USD Analysis 18 July 2024

AUD/USD currency pair ne weekly timeframe chart par mazboot bullish trend dikha rahi hai, jo ke pichle paanch hafton se musalsal barh rahi hai. Yeh sustained uptrend kuch aam nahi hai, aur historical patterns yeh suggest karte hain ke ek corrective phase shayad nazdeek hai. Market dynamics aksar mean reversion principle ko follow karti hain, jo yeh kehti hai ke prolonged trends ke baad aksar corrections ya consolidation periods aati hain, jab market recent movements ko absorb karti hai.

Agar hum is pair ke technical aspects ko gehraai se dekhein, to kuch key indicators aur chart patterns wazeh hoti hain. Pehli baat, consistent upward trajectory strong buying momentum ko indicate karti hai, jo ke favorable economic data from Australia, rising commodity prices, aur overall weakness in US dollar jaise factors se driven hai. Yeh tamam elements AUD/USD pair ke bullish sentiment ko contribute karte hain.

Lekin, mean reversion principle yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh upward movement indefinitely sustainable nahi ho sakti. Historically, markets tend to revert to their mean ya average levels after extended periods of trending in one direction. Yeh imply karta hai ke paanch hafton ke continuous gains ke baad, AUD/USD pair shayad ek pullback ya consolidation phase ke liye due hai. Traders ko ehtiyaat se kaam lena chahiye aur potential reversal signals ko dekhna chahiye jo ke current bullish trend ke end ka indication de sakti hain.

Key levels jo dekhne layak hain, unmein pehle ke resistance levels shamil hain jo ke potential retracement ke dauran ab support ke tor par kaam kar sakte hain. 0.7500 level, misaal ke tor par, ek significant psychological barrier hai jo agar breach ho jaye to deeper correction ka signal de sakta hai. Iske ilawa, technical indicators ka use jaise ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) insights provide kar sakta hai market ke overbought conditions ke baare mein. Ek RSI reading jo 70 se upar ho aksar indicate karti hai ke asset overbought hai aur shayad ek correction ke liye due hai.

Iske ilawa, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator current trend ke momentum ke baare mein clues de sakta hai. Agar MACD line signal line ke neeche cross kare, to yeh ek early indication ho sakti hai bearish reversal ki. In technical indicators ko monitor karna traders ko potential entry aur exit points identify karne mein madad de sakta hai, aur unki strategies ko anticipated market movements ke sath align karne mein madadgar ho sakta hai.




Fundamentally, AUD/USD pair ka outlook bhi economic data releases aur geopolitical events se influenced hoga. Misaal ke tor par, agar Australia ki economic performance mein koi unexpected changes aati hain, commodity prices mein shifts hoti hain, ya US Federal Reserve se significant announcements aati hain, to yeh pair ki trajectory ko impact kar sakti hain. In developments ke bare mein maloomat rakhna informed trading decisions lene ke liye crucial hai.

Technical aur fundamental analysis ke ilawa, market sentiment bhi currency pairs ke behavior mein vital role play karta hai. Filhal, positive sentiment towards Australian dollar strong economic performance aur rising commodity prices se driven hai. Lekin, sentiment mein shifts, jo ke economic indicators ya geopolitical events mein changes se trigger hoti hain, increased volatility aur potential reversals ka lead kar sakti hain.

Summary yeh hai ke jabke AUD/USD currency pair ne pichle paanch hafton se strong bullish trend exhibit kiya hai, mean reversion principle yeh suggest karta hai ke ek corrective phase shayad nazdeek hai. Traders ko closely key technical indicators jaise ke RSI aur MACD, aur significant support aur resistance levels ko monitor karna chahiye, potential reversals anticipate karne ke liye. Iske ilawa, fundamental factors aur market sentiment ke bare mein maloomat rakhna essential hoga future movements of AUD/USD pair ko navigate karne ke liye. In analytical approaches ko combine karke, traders apne decision-making process ko enhance kar sakte hain aur potential market corrections ke samne apni positions ko behtar manage kar sakte hain.

US Small-Cap Stocks Analysis

US ke small-cap stocks ne mazboot rally dekhi hai, jabke investoron ko ummeed hai ke interest rates kam ho jayengi aur Donald Trump, jo ke Republican presidential nominee hain, ka outlook behtar ho raha hai. Trump policies ko support karte hain jo choti domestic companies ke liye favorable hain.

Russell 2000 (.RUT), jo ke small companies ka index hai, pichle paanch dino mein 11.5% se zyada barh chuka hai, jo ke April 2020 ke baad se is waqt frame mein sabse bada gain hai.

Lekin, technology aur growth stocks choppy rahi hain, jo yeh view support karti hai ke small-cap stocks ne faida uthaya hai investors ke shift hone se, jo is saal ke best-performing companies se hat kar market ke less popular parts mein invest kar rahe hain.

Tech stocks ki selloff is hafte intense ho gayi hai, jab reports aaye ke US chip exports par China ke liye sakht pabandiyan laga sakta hai aur Donald Trump ke Taiwan par comments ne sector par geopolitical concerns raise kiye hain.

Nasdaq 100 tech index (.NDX) pichle hafte se 3% gir chuka hai, jisme Wednesday ko is saal ka sabse bada one-day drop bhi shamil hai. S&P 500 (.SPX), jo aksar large-cap stocks ka benchmark use hota hai, 0.2% barh gaya hai.

### AUD/USD Analysis

Australian dollar Wednesday ke end par 4 pips lose kar gaya, lekin usi waqt 0.6751 level ke neeche consolidate kar gaya, jo ke decline ko extend karne ka iraada confirm karta hai, kam az kam pehle target level 0.6690 tak. Agar yeh level surpass hota hai to pair dusre target 0.6627 tak pahunch sakta hai. Marlin oscillator, jo daily chart par divergence form kar raha hai, negative half mein move karne wala hai. Hum wait kar rahe hain ke pair lower correct kare.

4-hour chart par, price balance indicator line se neeche move kar gayi hai, thodi si MACD line se short. Marlin oscillator bhi zero line ko touch kiye baghair neeche move kar gaya. Yeh ek nayi medium-term trend ke start ka sign hai.

AUD/USD H4 chart

If we discuss trading in the AUD/USD market in the last few weeks, the candlestick seems to be running with control from the buyer like the market situation for the past few months. But what was seen at the end of the previous week was that there was still buying interest which made the price still run up until it could pass the simple moving average zone of period 100. In the weekly time frame, there is still a bearish candlestick formed, in my opinion, it is a signal that the price is undergoing a correction because now it still seems to be running in a bullish trend.
The candlestick is now running around the 0.6779 area, the price has gone down slightly from the market opening area today. If we monitor market developments through a 4-hour time frame chart, in my opinion for the next few days there is a chance that the market will move towards the bullish side. From some of the explanations that I have conveyed above, it can be concluded that the next market trade has the opportunity to continue the increase by setting a bullish target around the 0.6831 zone. If the target zone can be passed, then the buyer is predicted to want to test the 0.6856 price zone
Traders should prepare for this potential pullback by setting strategic entry and exit points. For those looking to enter long positions, waiting for a confirmation of support at 0.6761 would be prudent. This could involve looking for bullish reversal patterns or an increase in buying volume at this level.




Conversely, short-term traders might capitalize on the downward movement by entering short positions, targeting the 0.6761 support and setting stop-loss orders just above the recent highs to manage risk effectively. In conclusion, the failure to break Thursday’s high in the AUD/USD pair suggests that the bullish momentum is waning, signaling a potential bearish correction. The support level of 0.6761 is the logical target for this retracement, given its historical significance. Traders should closely monitor this level for market reactions to gauge the strength of the corrective move and to identify potential trading opportunities. Implementing sound risk management strategies will be essential to navigate this anticipated market shift effectively.

Australian Dollar Analysis

Australian dollar (AUD) ne European aur Australian trading session mein trend ke khilaf mazbooti dikhayi. Yeh izafa kuch positive domestic factors aur broader market sentiment ke wajah se hai. Australia's mazboot employment data ne Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ke interest rates phir se badhane ke case ko mazid majbooti di. Yeh prospect AUD ko mazboot karta hai kyunki higher interest rates foreign investment ko attract karti hain jo behtar returns ki talash mein hoti hain. Iske ilawa, global stock market ke potential bull run se risk-sensitive AUD ko faida hota hai. Yeh positive sentiment ne AUD/USD pair ko do hafton ki lowest near 0.6715 se recover karne mein madad di. Lekin, AUD ka upside do main factors se capped hai. Pehla, China's stringent COVID-19 policies aur copper prices mein kami ne resource-heavy economies jaise Australia ke liye investor enthusiasm ko kamzor kiya. Dusra, recent strengthening of the US dollar (USD) ne AUD/USD ke gains ko limited kar diya. USD ke resurgence ne apne pehle ke kuch losses ko reverse kiya, jo ise currencies jaise AUD ke against trade karne ke liye kam attractive banata hai.

Technical Analysis




Technically, AUD/USD ek uptrend line se support dhoond raha hai, jo ek bullish "rising wedge" pattern bana raha hai. Lekin, daily charts par indicators suggest karte hain ke yeh rally momentum lose kar rahi hai, jo potential sellers ko 0.6700 level ke kareeb attract kar sakti hai. Agar uptrend resume hota hai, to AUD/USD 0.6800 mark test kar sakti hai, jo ke last week ka ek key resistance level hai. Is level ke upar ek decisive break recent bearish sentiment ko negate karega aur further gains ka rasta kholega. Dusri taraf, agar current uptrend line support at 0.6700 ke neeche break hota hai to yeh decline trigger kar sakta hai towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near 0.6665. A further downside breach se AUD accelerate kar sakta hai towards the intermediate support level around 0.6600.

Conclusion

Natija yeh hai ke AUD ki trajectory positive domestic data aur potential rate hikes ke darmiyan ek balancing act par hinge karti hai, jise external factors jaise ke China's slowdown aur ek resurgent USD counter karte hain. Technical indicators suggest karte hain ke AUD ki rally mein ek potential pause ho sakta hai, jahan key support aur resistance levels near-term direction ke guideposts ke tor par act karte hain. Aane wale economic data aur central bank pronouncements AUD ke agle move ko determine karne mein crucial role play karenge.

AUD/USD Market Analysis in Roman Urdu

Kal AUD/USD kareeb 0.6724 zone tak pohanch gaya. Aaj ke Australian news data buyers ko madad de sakte hain ke woh 0.6767 zone ko cross kar sakein. Wese, AUD/USD market bohot zyada dynamic hai, jahan halat nai maloomat aur events ke reaction mein tezi se badalte hain. Traders ko tayar rehna chahiye apni strategies ko real-time mein adjust karne ke liye, nayi opportunities ka faida uthate hue aur risks ko effectively manage karte hue. Umeed hai ke buyers wapas aayenge aur 0.6755 resistance zone ko baad mein cross karenge.

Akhir mein, AUD/USD ke current market conditions sell-side strategy ke liye mazboot case pesh karte hain. Technical indicators, market sentiment, aur broader economic factors sab bearish outlook ki taraf ishara karte hain. Key price zones par focus karte hue, continuation patterns ko pehchante hue, aur effective risk management strategies ko employ karte hue, traders is environment ko successfully navigate kar sakte hain. Economic aur geopolitical developments se updated rehna aur market behavior ka comprehensive view maintain karna hamaari trading opportunities ko capitalize karne ki ability ko enhance karega. Well-rounded approach ke saath, traders losses ko minimize aur profit potential ko maximize kar sakte hain, AUD/USD ke bearish trend ka poora faida uthatay hue.

Mein na sirf stop loss ko use karna pasand karta hoon balki larger time frames ko bhi consider karta hoon taake AUD/USD ke market influencers ko effectively samajh sakoon. Stop loss ko implement karna ek fundamental risk management strategy hai jo market ke against predicted direction mein move hone ki surat mein potential losses ko limit karne mein madad karti hai. Stop loss ko appropriate level par set karke, traders apne capital ko protect aur significant drawdowns ko prevent kar sakte hain. Aur, larger time frames jaise daily ya weekly charts ka use karna market trends par broader perspective provide karta hai.

AUD/USD market ko effectively navigate karne ke liye ye strategic advantage ho sakta hai. Jab prices uncertain hoti hain aur technical levels jaise 0.67287 aur 0.6689 closely contested hoti hain, to ye often increased volatility lead karta hai. Ye volatility multiple entry aur exit points create karti hai traders ke liye, allowing them to optimize their positions. Key ye hai ke confirmation signals dekhna, jaise bullish candlestick patterns ya increased buying volume around critical levels.

Iske ilawa, external factors ko consider karna zaruri hai jo AUD/USD pair ko influence kar sakte hain. Economic data releases from Australia aur United States, commodity prices mein changes (especially given Australia’s resource-rich economy), aur broader geopolitical developments sab pair ke price dynamics ko impact kar sakti hain. For instance, positive economic data from Australia ya rising commodity prices bullish scenario ko support kar sakti hain, jabke negative news bearish pressures ko reinforce kar sakti hain.

In conclusion, AUD/USD pair ka recent break through 0.6801 aur subsequent price movements traders ke liye mix of challenges aur opportunities pesh karte hain. Key levels to watch hain 0.6689 on the downside aur 0.6801 on the upside. 0.6801 ke taraf surge aur iske beyond signal karega ke long positions enter karne ka achha mauka hai, jabke current price of 0.67242 ek strategic entry point offer karta hai buyers ke liye jo anticipated upward correction ka faida uthana chahte hain. By staying vigilant aur responsive to both technical signals aur external economic factors, traders effectively current market dynamics ko navigate kar sakte hain.

AUD/USD Analysis 19 July 2024

AUD/USD ka daily chart significant bullish pressure dikhata hai, jo ke important resistance level 0.66917 ko break kar chuka hai. Is breakout se pehle, AUD/USD ne downward correction experience ki thi, lekin price 0.657455 level ke aas paas stuck rahi. Ye level EMA 50 ke saath coincide karta hai, jo dynamic support ka kaam karta hai. EMA 50 par price ka rejection is baat ka indication hai ke bullish power ab bhi upward price movement ko support kar rahi hai. Is level par rejection dikhata hai ke market players is area ko ek attractive buying zone samajhte hain, is liye selling pressure itna strong nahi ke price ko neeche la sake. Ye signal deta hai ke existing uptrend ab bhi continue kar raha hai.

Ye continued bullish pressure AUD/USD ko next supply area ke taraf le ja sakti hai jo ke 0.68166 aur 0.68510 levels ke beech hai. Ye supply area ek important zone hai jo pehle ek significant selling point raha hai, is liye nayi resistance ke potential se aware rehna zaroori hai. Agar price is supply area ko reach karke break kar leti hai, to ye likely hai ke bullish trend aur bhi strong ho jaye aur aage further increases ka raasta khul jaye.




H1 chart par AUD/USD currency pair ka bullish trend kaafi clear hai. Lekin, price filhal ek sideways condition mein hai, jahan resistance level 0.675183 aur support 0.67333 par hai. Is situation mein, price limited range mein move kar rahi hai, aur kisi bhi level ko break karne ki kaafi strength nahi dikha rahi. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 50 level jo ke EMA 100 ke upar hai, bhi ek bullish trend ka indication hai jo ab bhi dominate kar raha hai. EMA 50 jo dynamic support ka kaam karta hai, dikhata hai ke buying pressure ab bhi wahan hai, bhale hi price abhi sideways range mein trap hai. Ye condition usually market mein uncertainty ko indicate karti hai, jahan market players further confirmation ka wait kar rahe hote hain pehle decision lene se pehle.

Further bullish potential tab bahut likely hai agar price resistance 0.675183 ko break kar leti hai. Is level ka breakout ek strong signal hoga ke buyers ne market ka control le liya hai, aur aage further price increases ka raasta pave karega.